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Public Opinion Monitoring PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING Public Opinion Monitoring of the State of the Russian Society As in the previous issues, we publish the results of the monitoring of public opinion concerning the state of the Russian society conducted by VolRC RAS in the Vologda Oblast 1. The following tables show the dynamics of several parameters indicating the social feeling and socio-political sentiment of the Vologda Oblast population in the period from February 2018 (the beginning of the first year of V. Putin’s fourth presidential term) to August 2019 We compare the results of the surveys with the data for 2007 (the last year of V. Putin’s second presidential term, when the assessment of the President’s work was the highest), 2011 (the last year of Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency) and 2012 (the first year of V. Putin’s third presidential term). We also provide yearly dynamics of the data for the last two years (2017–2018). In June – August 2019, the level of approval of the work of the President of the Russian Federation did not change significantly: the share of positive assessments is 56%, the share of negative assessments is 28–29%. The dynamics of public opinion concerning the performance of the head of state show no tangible changes since April 2019 (that is, during the latest three surveys). It was then that we saw the reversal of the negative trend of reducing the share of positive judgments caused primarily by the reaction of society to the changes in the pension legislation (during the period from June 2018 to April 2019, the share of positive assessments of the President’s work decreased by 14 p.p., from 70 to 56%; however, since April 2019 it has been stable at 56%). 1 The polls are held six times a year in Vologda, Cherepovets, and in eight districts of the oblast (Babayevsky District, Velikoustyugsky District, Vozhegodsky District, Gryazovetsky District, Kirillovsky District, Nikolsky District, Tarnogsky District and Sheksninsky District). The method of the survey is a questionnaire poll by place of residence of respondents. The volume of a sample population is 1,500 people 18 years of age and older. The sample is purposeful and quoted. The representativeness of the sample is ensured by the observance of the proportions between the urban and rural population, the proportions between the inhabitants of settlements of various types (rural communities, small and medium-sized cities), age and sex structure of the Oblast’s adult population. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. More information on the results of VolRC RAS polls is available at http://www.vscc.ac.ru/. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast Volume 12, Issue 4, 2019 239 PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING For reference According to VTsIOM, the share of positive assessments in June – August 2019 nationwide was 64%, negative – 27–28% (for comparison: in February 2018, the level of approval of the President’s activities, according to VTsIOM, was 78%, the level of disapproval was 12% 2). According to Levada-Center, support for the President’s work in June – July 2019 was 68%, the share of negative judgments was 28% (for comparison: in February 2018, the share of positive assessments of the President’s work, according to Levada-Center, was 76%, negative – 22%). In general, do you approve or disapprove of the work of the President of Russia? (% of respondents)* 80 68.9 68.7 68.1 70.1 65.0 66.4 65.9 65.9 62.6 63.5 61.9 70 58.7 55.9 55.7 55.8 60 50 40 30.1 31.2 27.0 27.6 29.4 24.1 30 23.4 21.7 20.8 22.1 16.3 18.1 18.4 17.5 20 15.1 10 0 Feb. 18 Apr. 18 June 18 Aug. 18 Oct. 18 Dec. 18 Feb. 19 Apr. 19 June 19 Aug. 19 I approve I don’t approve * Here and further, the tables and graphs present the data of VolRC RAS on the results of the monitoring of public opinion conducted in the Vologda Oblast. How do you assess the current performance of..? (percentage of respondents) Dynamics (+/-) Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. Aug. 19 to… Answer 2007 2011 2012 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 June Feb. 19 18 Chairman of the RF Government* I approve -* 59.3 49.6 49.5 48.0 48.3 49.9 52.0 47.4 45.2 45.3 41.6 38.8 40.9 43.1 +2 -5 I don’t - 24.7 33.3 31.1 31.6 30.8 27.8 27.5 31.9 34.8 36.9 39.3 40.2 38.0 36.3 -2 +6 approve Governor I approve 55.8 45.7 41.9 39.8 38.4 39.3 39.5 40.5 37.3 35.7 38.3 36.5 34.7 35.4 36.1 +1 -3 I don’t 22.2 30.5 33.3 39.3 37.6 37.9 36.1 35.3 36.9 39.1 40.3 41.5 41.4 38.6 38.5 0 +1 approve * Included in the survey since 2008. 2 It should be noted that in February 2018, VTsIOM conducted a telephone survey (apparently in connection with the upcoming presidential election). To compare the current indicators, it is more correct to analyze the results of the January survey, according to which the share of positive assessments of the President’s work was 83%, negative – 11%. 240 Volume 12, Issue 4, 2019 Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING Over the past two months, the share of Vologda Oblast residents who believe that the President is successfully coping with the problems of strengthening Russia’s international positions (51–52%), restoring order in the country (45–46%), protecting democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms (35-36%) has remained virtually unchanged. At the same time, the assessments of the success of the work of the head of state aimed at economic recovery and increasing the welfare of citizens worsened slightly: the share of positive judgments decreased from 29 to 26%, the proportion of negative judgements increased from 58 to 60%. In general, as of August 2019, the share of positive assessments of the President’s activities to address the country’s key issues is 4–6 percentage points lower than in February 2018 and the average for 2017 and 2018. In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (% of respondents) Dynamics (+/-) Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. Aug. 19 to… Answer 2007 2011 2012 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 June Feb. 19 18 Strengthening Russia’s international standing Successful 58.4 46.2 43.1 55.7 54.2 55.2 56.1 55.6 53.3 51.3 53.5 51.5 50.2 51.9 51.0 -1 -4 Unsuccess- 24.9 33.7 37.9 26.8 28.4 26.9 26.9 26.7 29.1 30.7 30.3 31.7 32.7 30.3 30.6 0 +4 ful Success 133.5 112.5 105.2 129.0 125.7 128.3 129.2 128.9 124.2 120.6 123.2 119.8 117.5 121.6 120.4 -1 -8 index Imposing order in the country Successful 53.2 36.6 35.4 50.6 51.1 50.9 54.2 55.1 51.0 48.5 46.9 44.2 42.4 44.5 46.1 +2 -5 Unsuccess- 34.0 50.0 50.7 36.1 35.0 32.7 30.8 32.9 36.2 37.9 39.5 40.7 42.6 39.3 39.3 0 +7 ful Success 119.2 86.6 84.7 114.5 116.1 118.2 123.4 122.2 114.8 110.6 107.4 103.5 99.8 105.2 106.8 +2 -11 index Protecting democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms Successful 44.4 32.4 28.8 40.3 40.5 42.8 42.9 43.4 39.8 37.3 36.5 33.5 32.3 34.6 35.5 +1 -7 Unsuccess- 37.0 48.3 52.3 40.2 40.2 38.7 37.1 38.1 41.4 42.7 43.3 45.3 47.7 45.5 46.1 +1 +7 ful Success 107.4 84.1 76.5 100.2 100.2 104.1 105.8 105.3 98.4 94.6 93.2 88.2 84.6 89.1 89.4 0 -15 index Economic recovery and increase in citizens’ welfare Successful 47.2 30.7 28.5 29.3 31.0 31.0 31.3 32.3 30.6 30.6 29.9 28.1 28.1 29.1 26.5 -3 -5 Не успешно 39.1 56.1 57.9 56.9 56.2 53.7 55.3 55.2 58.3 57.2 57.6 56.9 58.2 57.8 59.7 +2 +6 Success 108.1 74.6 70.6 72.4 74.7 77.3 76.0 77.1 72.3 73.4 72.3 71.2 69.9 71.3 66.8 -5 -11 index * Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for 2018. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast Volume 12, Issue 4, 2019 241 PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING In June – August, the structure of people’s preferences concerning political parties did not change: the United Russia party is supported by 34–35%, LDPR and the Communist Party – by 9–11%, the Just Russia party – by 3–4%.
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