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Trend Uporabe Sodobnih Oborožitvenih Sistemov V Oboroženih Silah: Primerjalna in Kvantitativna Analiza

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Trend Uporabe Sodobnih Oborožitvenih Sistemov V Oboroženih Silah: Primerjalna in Kvantitativna Analiza UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Anja Kolak Trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov v oboroženih silah: primerjalna in kvantitativna analiza Magistrsko delo Ljubljana, 2016 UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI FAKULTETA ZA DRUŽBENE VEDE Anja Kolak Mentor: izr. prof. dr. Iztok Prezelj Somentor: doc. dr. Erik Kopač Trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov v oboroženih silah: primerjalna in kvantitativna analiza Magistrsko delo Ljubljana, 2016 2 POVZETEK Trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov v oboroženih silah: primerjalna in kvantitativna analiza V industrijski in postindustrijski dobi je razvoj znanosti in tehnološki napredek, zlasti izjemen napredek informacijsko-komunikacijske tehnologije, vplival na različna področja in s tem povzročil velike spremembe v gospodarstvu, industriji in družbi. Oborožene sile pri tem niso izjema. Razvoj in ekspanzija sodobnih tehnologij predvsem na področju robotike, biologije, nanotehnologije, računalniških procesorjev in kibernetike vplivata na zmogljivosti sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov in posledično na zmogljivosti oboroženih sil. Nove tehnologije so omogočile večjo premičnost in hitrost vojaških enot, večji obseg izvajanja bojnih nalog in zmogljivejše oborožitvene sisteme. Sodobno vojskovanje temelji na zmogljivih oborožitvenih sistemih, komunikacijskih in informacijskih sistemih, obveščevalnih sistemih ter sistemih vodenja in poveljevanja.Več kot dve desetletji poteka razprava o spremenjeni paradigmi vojskovanja, zato se upravičeno lahko vprašamo, ali smo bili oziroma smo priča običajnim razvojnim, evolucijskim procesom, ki vplivajo na te spremembe. Čeprav se vojaška stroka strinja, da vojaška revolucija pomeni korenito spremembo v paradigmi vojskovanja, ni splošno sprejetega konsenza, kdaj in kako do teh sprememb pride oziroma kaj jih povzroča. Izum smodnika, parni stroj, podmornica, letalo in atomska bomba so nekatere od najbolj znanih inovacij, ki veljajo za revolucionarne. Danes pa se postavlja vprašanje, ali lahko nove tehnologije in modernizacija vojaških zmogljivosti, spremembe v načinu vojskovanja, spremenjene vojaške doktrine in taktike res razumemo oziroma označujemo kot revolucionarne. Predmet raziskovanja v magistrskem delu je analiza trenda uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov v oboroženih silah v obdobju od l. 1994 do l. 2014 na vzorcu 32 držav. Splošna, glavna analiza vključuje primerjalno analizo trendov uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov v posameznih državah oziroma med skupinami držav ter prikaz (možnih) korelacij med trendom uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov, vojaško močjo države, tehnološko razvitostjo države, vloge države v mednarodni skupnosti in (geografskimi) značilnostmi posamezne države. Analiza vključuje tudi identifikacijo sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov in oris prihodnjega trenda uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov. Analiza v magistrskem delu temelji na kvantitativni analizi, uporabljeni metodološki pristopi pa so: analiza vsebine, interpretacija sekundarnih virov, zgodovinska analiza in primerjalna analiza. Statistična analiza vključuje: analizo časovnih vrst, metodo razvrščanja v skupine, korelacijo in regresijo. Prihodnji trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov je orisan s pomočjo linearne regresije, rezultati so predstavljeni z opisno statistiko. Sodobne oborožitvene sisteme opredeljujem kot kompleksne integrirane sisteme, z novejšimi tehnološkimi pridobitvami, ki so podprti z zmogljivimi računalniškimi aplikacijami ter delujejo na sinergiji različnih tehnologij in tehnoloških ravni. Trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov v oboroženih silah analiziram skozi gibanje števila enot posameznega sodobnega oborožitvenega sistema ali vseh sistemov skupaj, po posamezni državi ali skupini držav, skozi zaporedne časovne točke, dolgoročno gibanje pojava oziroma spremenljivke pa predstavlja trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov. Sodobni oborožitveni sistemi, identificirani v tej raziskavi, so: brezpilotni letalniki (UAV), brezpilotni letalniki za zbiranje obveščevalnih podatkov (UAV ISR), sistem za elektronsko vojskovanje (EV), sistem za zbiranje obveščevalnih podatkov (SIGINT, ELINT), 3 večnamenska lovska letala, natančno vodeno strelivo (GPS in lasersko vodene bombe) in sateliti. Analiza je pokazala, da je trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov pozitiven in naraščajoč že od l. 1994. Trend je najbolj izrazit pri ZDA, sledi Ruska federacija, Francija in Kitajska, države, ki sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov nimajo, pa so: Albanija, Estonija, Islandija, Litva, Luksemburg, Latvija, Poljska, Slovaška in Slovenija. V eno skupino so se razvrstile vse evropske države (Nemčija, Španija, Velika Britanija, Italija, Švedska in Turčija), ki imajo v EU (brez Turčije) velike vojaške industrijske komplekse, med njimi je tudi Švedska kot nevtralna država, ki je po uporabi večnamenskih lovskih letal takoj za Francijo. Statistična analiza je pokazala, da med vsemi izbranimi indikatorji samo obrambni izdatki, ki odražajo vojaško moč države, vplivajo na uporabo sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov. Število pripadnikov oboroženih sil, raziskave in razvoj, izvoz visoko razvite tehnologije, vloga držav v mednarodni skupnosti in (geografske) značilnosti države so indikatorji, identificirani v tej raziskavi, ki ne vplivajo na trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov. Rezultati linearne regresije kažejo, da bo prihodnji trend uporabe sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov pozitiven in naraščajoč, v tej analizi vse do l. 2030. Kljub ugotovitvam te raziskave in načelnemu strinjanju, da bo tehnološki napredek in s tem trend sodobnih oborožitvenih sistemov pozitiven in naraščajoč ter da bodo zmogljivejši in modernejši oborožitveni sistemi zamenjali obstoječa, težko z analitično natančnostjo napovedujem, v kakšnih časovnih intervalih se bodo te spremembe pojavljale. Ključne besede: sodobni oborožitveni sistemi, trend, oborožene sile, vojaška tehnologija, vojaške revolucije, vojaška transformacija 4 SUMMARY The trend of using contemporary weapons systems in the armed forces: comparative and quantitative analysis In the industrial and post-industrial era, the development of science and technological development, and especially remarkable progress of ICT had an impact on different areas, and thus caused major changes in the economy, industry and society. The armed forces are no exception. The development and expansion of modern technologies, particularly in the field of robotics, biology, nanotechnology, computer processors and cybernetics, has an impact on the capabilities of contemporary weapons systems and, consequently, on the capacity of the armed forces. New technologies have enabled greater flexibility and speed of troops, a greater extent of implementation of combat tasks and a better performance of weapons systems. Modern warfare is based on the powerful weapons systems, communications and information systems, intelligence systems and the C2 systems. For more than two decades the debate about the changed paradigm of warfare has been taking place, and therefore we may reasonably ask ourselves whether we were or we are witnesses to normal developmental, evolutionary processes that affect these changes. Although the military experts agree that military revolution represents a radical change in the paradigm of warfare, there is no generally accepted consensus on when and how these changes occur and what causes them. The invention of gunpowder, steam engine, submarine, aircraft, and the atomic bomb are some of the most famous innovations which are deemed to be revolutionary. Today, however, the question arises whether we really understand the new technology and modernization of military capabilities, the changing nature of warfare, the changed military doctrines and tactics, and describe them as revolutionary. The subject of the master thesis is the analysis of the trend of using contemporary weapons systems by the armed forces during the period from 1994 to 2014 on a sample of 32 countries. The main analysis includes a comparative analysis of trends in the use of contemporary weapons systems in individual countries or groups of countries and shows (possible) correlation between the trend in the use of contemporary weapons systems, the military power of the state, the technological level of development of the country, the state's role in the international community and the (geographical) characteristics of each country. The analysis includes identification of contemporary weapons systems and outlines the further trend in the use of contemporary weapons systems. The analysis in the study is based on quantitative analysis, and methodological approaches that are being used and complement each other are the following: content analysis, interpretation of secondary sources, historical analysis and comparative analysis. Statistical analysis includes: time series analysis, cluster analysis, correlation and regression. A further trend in the use of contemporary weapons systems is outlined by a linear regression, and the results are presented on the basis of descriptive statistics. Contemporary weapons systems are defined as a complex integrated systems with the latest technological achievements, which are backed by powerful computer applications, and operate on the synergy of various technologies and technological levels. I have analysed the trend of using contemporary weapons systems in the armed forces through the movement of the number of units of individual contemporary weapon system, or of all the systems together, for each country or group
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