Lecture Notes in

Kent E. Holsinger Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, U-3043 University of Connecticut Storrs, CT 06269-3043 c 2001-2019 Kent E. Holsinger

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i ii Contents

Preface vii

I The genetic structure of populations 1

1 Genetic transmission in populations 3

2 The Hardy-Weinberg Principle and estimating allele frequencies 7

3 Inbreeding and self-fertilization 21

4 Analyzing the genetic structure of populations 31

5 Analyzing the genetic structure of populations: individual assignment 47

II The genetics of natural selection 53

6 The Genetics of Natural Selection 55

7 Estimating viability 67

III Genetic drift 73

8 Genetic Drift 75

9 Mutation, Migration, and Genetic Drift 89

10 Selection and genetic drift 95

iii 11 The Coalescent 103

IV Molecular evolution 111

12 Introduction to molecular population genetics 113

13 Patterns of nucleotide and amino acid substitution 127

14 Detecting selection on nucleotide polymorphisms 133

V Phylogeography 145

15 Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) 147

16 Statistical phylogeography: Migrate-N, IMa, and ABC 155

17 Population genomics 175

VI Quantitative genetics 191

18 Introduction to quantitative genetics 193

19 Resemblance among relatives 205

20 Evolution of quantitative traits 215

21 Association mapping: a (very) brief overview 223

22 Genomic prediction 233

VII Old chapters, no longer updated 241

23 Testing Hardy-Weinberg 243

24 Analyzing the genetic structure of populations: a Bayesian approach 251

25 Two-locus population genetics 261

iv 26 Selection at one locus with many alleles, fertility selection, and sexual selection 269

27 Association mapping: BAMD 277

28 The neutral theory of molecular evolution 281

29 Patterns of selection on nucleotide polymorphisms 287

30 Tajima’s D, Fu’s FS, Fay and Wu’s H, and Zeng et al.’s E 291

31 Evolution in multigene families 297

32 Approximate Bayesian Computation 307

33 Genetic structure of human populations in Great Britain 319

34 Selection on multiple characters 323

v vi Preface

Acknowledgments

I’ve used various versions of these notes in my graduate course on population genetics http://darwin.eeb.uconn.edu/eeb348 since 2001. Some of them date back even earlier than that. Several generations of students and teaching assistants have found errors and helped me to find better ways of explaining arcane concepts. In addition, the following people have found various errors and helped me to correct them.

Brian Cady Robynn Shannon Nora Mitchell Jennifer Steinbachs Kristen Nolting Kathryn Theiss Rachel Prunier Yufeng Wu Uzay Sezen

I am indebted to everyone who has found errors or suggested better ways of explaining concepts, but don’t blame them for any errors that are left. Those are all mine.

Note on old chapters

On the off chance that some readers of these notes may have used parts of them that I am no longer updating, I’ve included a section titled “Old chapters, no longer updated.” Each of the chapters in this section has a note at the bottom indicating when it was last revised. In some cases the material in a chapter has been incorporated into one of the chapters that is being maintained. In other cases, I’ve dropped the material from my course. In either case, the material doesn’t contain any egregious errors (so far as I know), but it will grow increasingly out of date.

vii Part I

The genetic structure of populations

1

Chapter 1

Genetic transmission in populations

Mendel’s rules describe how genetic transmission happens between parents and offspring. Consider a monohybrid cross:

A1A2 × A1A2 ↓ 1 1 1 4 A1A1 2 A1A2 4 A2A2 Population genetics describes how genetic transmission happens between a population of parents and a population of offspring. Consider, for example, the following data from the Est-3 locus of Zoarces viviparus:1 Genotype of offspring Maternal genotype A1A1 A1A2 A2A2 A1A1 305 516 A1A2 459 1360 877 A2A2 877 1541 This table describes, empirically, the relationship between the genotypes of mothers and the genotypes of their offspring. We can also make some inferences about the genotypes of the fathers in this population, even though we didn’t see them.

1. 305 out of 821 male gametes that fertilized eggs from A1A1 mothers carried the A1 allele (37%).

2. 877 out of 2418 male gametes that fertilized eggs from A2A2 mothers carried the A1 allele (36%). 1Only one offspring from each mother is included in these data (from [12]).

3 Question How many of the 2,696 male gametes that fertilized eggs from A1A2 mothers carried the A1 allele?

Recall We don’t know the paternal genotypes or we wouldn’t be asking this question.

• There is no way to tell which of the 1360 A1A2 offspring received A1 from their mother and which from their father. • Regardless of what the genotype of the father is, half of the offspring of a het- erozygous mother will be heterozygous.2 • Heterozygous offspring of heterozygous mothers contain no information about the frequency of A1 among fathers, so we don’t bother to include them in our calculations.

Rephrase How many of the 1336 homozygous progeny of heterozygous mothers received an A1 allele from their father?

Answer 459 out of 1336 (34%)

New question How many of the offspring where the paternal contribution can be identified received an A1 allele from their father?

Answer (305 + 459 + 877) out of (305 + 459 + 877 + 516 + 877 + 1541) or 1641 out of 4575 (36%)

An algebraic formulation of the problem

The above calculations tell us what’s happening for this particular data set, but those of you who know me know that there has to be a little math coming so that we can describe the situation more generally. Here’s the notation:

2Assuming we’re looking at data from a locus that has only two alleles. If there were four alleles at a locus, for example, all of the offspring could be heterozygous. If you don’t see that immediately, think about an A1A2 mother mating with an A3A4 father and write out the Punnett square. We are also assuming that meiosis is fair, i.e., that there’s no segregation distortion, and that there’s no gamete competition and no gamete-gamete assortative mating. If you don’t know what any of that means don’t worry about it. We’ll get to (most of) it over the next few weeks.

4 Genotype Number Sex A1A1 F11 female A1A2 F12 female A2A2 F22 female A1A1 M11 male A1A2 M12 male A2A2 M22 male

Using that notation,

2F11+F12 2F22+F12 pf = qf = 2F11+2F12+2F22 2F11+2F12+2F22

2M11+M12 2M22+M12 pm = qm = , 2M11+2M12+2M22 2M11+2M12+2M22 3 where pf is the frequency of A1 in mothers and pm is the frequency of A1 in fathers. Since every individual in the population must have one father and one mother, the frequency of A1 among offspring is the same in both sexes, namely 1 p = (p + p ) , 2 f m assuming that all matings have the same average fecundity and that the locus we’re studying is autosomal.4 Question: Why do those assumptions matter? Answer: If pf = pm, then the allele frequency among offspring is equal to the allele frequency in their parents, i.e., the allele frequency doesn’t change from one generation to the next. This might be considered the First Law of Population Genetics: If no forces act to change allele frequencies between zygote formation and breeding, allele frequencies will not change.

Zero force laws This is an example of what philosophers call a zero force law. Zero force laws play a very important role in scientific theories, because we can’t begin to understand what a force does until we understand what would happen in the absence of any forces. Consider Newton’s famous dictum:

3 qf = 1 − pf and qm = 1 − pm as usual. 4And that there are enough offspring produced that we can ignore genetic drift. Have you noticed that I have a fondness for footnotes? You’ll see a lot more before the semester is through, and you’ll soon discover that most of my weak attempts at humor are buried in them.

5 An object in motion tends to remain in motion in a straight line. An object at rest tends to remain at rest.

or (as you may remember from introductory physics)5

F = ma .

If we observe an object accelerating, we can immediately infer that a force is acting on it. Not only that, we can also infer something about the magnitude of the force. However, if an object is not accelerating we cannot conclude that no forces are acting. It might be that opposing forces act on the object in such a way that the resultant is no net force. Acceleration is a sufficient condition to infer that force is operating on an object, but it is not necessary. What we might call the “First Law of Population Genetics” is analogous to Newton’s First Law of Motion:

If all genotypes at a particular locus have the same average fecundity and the same average chance of being included in the breeding population, allele frequen- cies in the population will remain constant from one generation to the next.

For the rest of the semester we’ll be learning about the forces that cause allele frequencies to change and learning how to infer the properties of those forces from the changes that they induce. But you must always remember that while we can infer that some evolutionary force is present if allele frequencies change from one generation to the next, we cannot infer the absence of a force from a lack of allele frequency change.

5Don’t worry if you’re not good at physics. I’m probably worse. What I’m about to tell you is almost the only thing about physics I can remember. I graduated from college with only one semester of college physics, and it didn’t even require calculus as a pre-requisite.

6 Chapter 2

The Hardy-Weinberg Principle and estimating allele frequencies

To keep things relatively simple, we’ll spend much of our time in the first part of this course talking about variation at a single genetic locus, even though alleles at many different loci are involved in expression of most morphological or physiological traits. Towards the end of the course, we’ll study the genetics of continuous (quantitative) variation, but until then you can asssume that I’m talking about variation at a single locus unless I specifically say otherwise.1

The genetic composition of populations

When I talk about the genetic composition of a population, I’m referring to three aspects of genetic variation within that population:2

1. The number of alleles at a locus.

2. The frequency of alleles at the locus.

3. The frequency of genotypes at the locus.

1You’ll see in a week or a week and a half when we talk about analysis of population structure that we start discussing variation at many loci. But you’ll also see that in spite of discussing variation at many loci simultaneously, virtually all of the underlying mathematics is based on the properties of those loci considered one at a time. 2At each locus I’m talking about. Remember, I’m only talking about one locus at a time, unless I specifically say otherwise. We’ll see why this matters when I outline the ideas behind genome-wide association mapping.

7 It may not be immediately obvious why we need both (2) and (3) to describe the genetic composition of a population, so let me illustrate with two hypothetical populations:

A1A1 A1A2 A2A2 Population 1 50 0 50 Population 2 25 50 25

3 It’s easy to see that the frequency of A1 is 0.5 in both populations, but the genotype frequencies are very different. In point of fact, we don’t need both genotype and allele frequencies. We could get away with only genotype frequencies, since we can always calculate allele frequencies from genotype frequencies. But there are fewer allele frequencies than genotype frequencies — only one allele frequency when there are two alleles at a locus. So working with allele frequencies is more convenient, but we can’t get genotype frequencies from allele frequencies unless ...

Derivation of the Hardy-Weinberg principle

We saw last time using the data from Zoarces viviparus that we can describe empirically and algebraically how genotype frequencies in one generation are related to genotype frequencies in the next. Let’s explore that a bit further. To do so we’re going to use a technique that is broadly useful in population genetics,4 i.e., we’re going to construct a mating table. A mating table consists of three components:

1. A list of all possible genotype pairings.

2. The frequency with which each genotype pairing occurs.

3. The genotypes produced by each pairing.

3 p1 = 2(50)/200 = 0.5, p2 = (2(25) + 50)/200 = 0.5. 4Although to be honest, we won’t see mating tables again after the first couple weeks of the semester

8 Offsrping genotype Female × Male Frequency A1A1 A1A2 A2A2 2 A1A1 × A1A1 x11 1 0 0 1 1 A1A2 x11x12 2 2 0 A2A2 x11x22 0 1 0 1 1 A1A2 × A1A1 x12x11 2 2 0 2 1 1 1 A1A2 x12 4 2 4 1 1 A2A2 x12x22 0 2 2 A2A2 × A1A1 x22x11 0 1 0 1 1 A1A2 x22x12 0 2 2 2 A2A2 x22 0 0 1 Notice that I’ve distinguished matings by both maternal and paternal genotype. While it’s not necessary for this example, we will see examples later in the course where it’s important to distinguish a mating in which the female is A1A1 and the male is A1A2 from ones in which the female is A1A2 and the male is A1A1. You are also likely to be surprised to learn that just in writing this table we’ve already made three assumptions about the transmission of genetic variation from one generation to the next:

Assumption #1 Genotype frequencies are the same in males and females, e.g., x11 is the 5 frequency of the A1A1 genotype in both males and females. Assumption #2 Genotypes mate at random with respect to their genotype at this partic- ular locus. Assumption #3 Meiosis is fair. More specifically, we assume that there is no segregation distortion; no gamete competition; no differences in the developmental ability of eggs, or the fertilization ability of sperm.6 It may come as a surprise to you, but there are alleles at some loci in some organisms that subvert the Mendelian rules, e.g., the t allele in house mice, segregation distorter in Drosophila melanogaster, and spore killer in Neurospora crassa. If you’re interested, a pair of papers describing work in Neurospora appeared in 2012 [37, 97]. Now that we have this table we can use it to calculate the frequency of each genotype in newly formed zygotes in the population,7 provided that we’re willing to make three additional assumptions: 5It would be easy enough to relax this assumption, but it makes the algebra more complicated without providing any new insight, so we won’t bother with relaxing it unless someone asks. 6We are also assuming that we’re looking at offspring genotypes at the zygote stage, so that there hasn’t been any opportunity for differential survival. 7Not just the offspring from these matings.

9 Assumption #4 There is no input of new genetic material, i.e., gametes are produced without mutation, and all offspring are produced from the union of gametes within this population, i.e., no migration from outside the population.

Assumption #5 The population is of infinite size so that the actual frequency of matings is equal to their expected frequency and the actual frequency of offspring from each mating is equal to the Mendelian expectations.

Assumption #6 All matings produce the same number of offspring, on average.

Taking these three assumptions together allows us to conclude that the frequency of a par- ticular genotype in the pool of newly formed zygotes is

X(frequency of mating)(frequency of genotype produce from mating) .

So

1 1 1 freq.(A A in zygotes) = x2 + x x + x x + x2 1 1 11 2 11 12 2 12 11 4 12 1 = x2 + x x + x2 11 11 12 4 12 2 = (x11 + x12/2) = p2

freq.(A1A2 in zygotes) = 2pq 2 freq.(A2A2 in zygotes) = q

Those frequencies probably look pretty familiar to you. They are, of course, the familiar Hardy-Weinberg proportions. But we’re not done yet. In order to say that these proportions will also be the genotype proportions of adults in the progeny generation, we have to make two more assumptions:

Assumption #7 Generations do not overlap.8

Assumption #8 There are no differences among genotypes in the probability of survival.

8Or the allele frequency is the same in generations that do overlap.

10 The Hardy-Weinberg principle

After a single generation in which all eight of the above assumptions are satisfied

2 freq.(A1A1 in zygotes) = p (2.1)

freq.(A1A2 in zygotes) = 2pq (2.2) 2 freq.(A2A2 in zygotes) = q (2.3) It’s vital to understand the logic here.

1. If Assumptions #1–#8 are true, then equations 2.1–2.3 must be true. 2. If genotypes are not in Hardy-Weinberg proportions, one or more of Assumptions #1– #8 must be false. 3. If genotypes are in Hardy-Weinberg proportions, one or more of Assumptions #1–#8 may still be violated. 4. Assumptions #1–#8 are sufficient for Hardy-Weinberg to hold, but they are not nec- essary for Hardy-Weinberg to hold.

Point (2) is why the Hardy-Weinberg principle is so important. There isn’t a population of any organism anywhere in the world that satisfies all 8 assumptions, even for a single generation.9 But all possible evolutionary forces within populations cause a violation of at least one of these assumptions. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg are one way in which we can detect those forces and estimate their magnitude.10

Estimating allele frequencies

Before we can determine whether genotypes in a population are in Hardy-Weinberg propor- tions, we need to be able to estimate the frequency of both genotypes and alleles. This is easy when you can identify all of the alleles within genotypes, but suppose that we’re trying to estimate allele frequencies in the ABO blood group system in humans. Then we have a situation that looks like this: 9There may be some that come reasonably close, but none that fulfill them exactly. There aren’t any populations of infinite size, for example. 10Actually, there’s a ninth assumption that I didn’t mention. Everything I said here depends on the assumption that the locus we’re dealing with is autosomal. We can talk about what happens with sex-linked loci, if you want. But again, mostly what we get is algebraic complications without a lot of new insight.

11 Phenotype A AB B O Genotype(s) aa ao ab bb bo oo No. in sample NA NAB NB NO

Now we can’t directly count the number of a, b, and o alleles. What do we do? Well, more than 50 years ago, some geneticists figured out how with a method they called “gene counting” [11] and that statisticians later generalized for a wide variety of purposes and called the EM algorithm [17]. It uses a trick you’ll see repeatedly through this course. When we don’t know something we want to know, we pretend that we know it and do some calculations with what we just pretended to know. If we’re lucky, we can fiddle with our calculations a bit to relate the thing that we pretended to know to something we actually do know so we can figure out what we wanted to know. Make sense? Probably not. Let’s try an example and see if that helps. If we knew pa, pb, and po, we could figure out how many individuals with the A phenotype have the aa genotype and how many have the ao genotype, namely

2 ! pa Naa = nA 2 pa + 2papo ! 2papo Nao = nA 2 . pa + 2papo Obviously we could do the same