Magazin* uropean research Mav 2000

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The ozone shield under close surveillance

-ι n s t r u c t i Q ι Impetus for innovation RTD info 26 TD info is a magazine on research and technological developmei supported by the European Union. It covers general aspects of Con Dassier ­ Research policy munity research such as project results and research policy, as well ; practical information including dates of calls for proposals, event Towards a European research area R conferences, publications, and soon. RTD info is aimed not only at current ar Interview with Philippe Busquin, potential participants in Community research programmes, but also at

European Commissioner responsible for research. *&$■ wider public of industrialists, decision­makers, students, and others who a interested in developments in European research. Published quarterly, Rl Scientists give their verdict info is available in English, French and German. Subscription is free. To sut scribe, fill in the form below. European Nobel prize­winners on research policy. RTD info is also available on­line on the European Commission's EUROF server at: europa.eu.int/comm/research/rtdinfo.html The European scientific landscape A field survey analyses public research . structures in a dozen countries. Editorial Information

Accelerating into the future RTD info is published by the Communication Unit of the Research DG. Head of Unit: Jürgen Rosenbaum The technological and social challenges Europe is set to experience by 2010, identified by the Institute for RTD info is produced by Michel Claessens (coordination), Prospective Technological Studies in Seville (JRC). Stephen Gosden, Piia Huusela and Jutta Kastner. For any questions concernin RTD info, please contact the team at: Biomedicine Tel.: +32­2­295.99.71 Diabetes reveals its secrets Fax: +32­2­295.82.20 A wide­ranging genetic study is seeking to under­ E­mail: [email protected] stand the role of genetic determinism in diabetes. For general questions about the Research DG's activities and the Europea Biomaterials Union's research programmes, please contact the Communication Unit: Fax: + 32­2­295.82.20 Building the new man E­mail: [email protected] New biomaterials are opening up innovative ways in surgery to repair human tissues and organs. Information on research and technological development programmes is als available on­line at the Commission's Europa server: Open forum europa.eu.int/comm/research An informal platform for ideas and debate 1 6 74,000 copies of this issue have been printed European RTD digest 18

Ι­ News in brief. Diary, Publications, Notice α: Calls for proposals Neither the European Commission, nor any person acting on its behalf, may be hel Construction industry responsible for the use to which information contained in this publication may be pu or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear. Impetus for innovation ç European Communities, 2000 When the earth moves Non­commercial reproduction authorised, subject to acknowledgement of source. Recycled buildings Subscriptions Information society In the lead in the wireless world 28 I wish to receive a free quarterly copy of RTD Info Innovative developments combining the use of J In English □ In French □ In German mobile phones and the Internet will allow Europe HF to gain a foothold in the 'new economy'.

Environment Name: The ozone shield under close surveillance Organisation: European and US experts in atmospheric physics and chemistry gathered in Kiruna (S) for the latest Street: N°: PO Box: winter campaign of measurements on the state of the ozone layer in the northern hemisphere. Report. Post Code : Town:

Europe's fragile forests Country: New tools for assessing the risks posed by storms and fires are at the disposal of forestry experts. Tel.: Fax:

Communicating uncertainty E­mail:

How, on an issue as complex as climatic change, Mail or fax this form to Research DG ­ Communication Unit can scientists help the public to form an opinion? ruede la Loi 200/ Wetstraat 200 ­ 1049 Bruxelles/Brussels ­ Belgique/België Fax: +32­2­295.82.20 ­ E­mail: rtd­[email protected] Ι π t e r v i e LU Towards a European

Research Area %

An urgent 'Research activities at national and Union level must be better integrated and coordinated to make them as efficient and innovative as possible, European research has some obvious and and to ensure that Europe offers attractive prospects to its best brains. ' well­publicised weaknesses. But it also has With these words, the Lisbon European Council of March 2000 gave the its strengths, and it needs to do more to green light to the new approach to the European Research Area. make the most of them. This is why, in Jan­ uary, European Commissioner Philippe Commissioner Philippe Busquin explains the meaning of this new Busquin launched the idea of creating a political direction. genuine European Research Area which would amount to much more than simply allowing national and Community policies to run in parallel. The initiative triggered a ou took over the European based on common approaches and objec­ wide­ranging debate, in the member states research portfolio in September tives, on drawing more benefit from the and beyond. α 1999. In January, at your initia­ diversity of its potential. There is a need to In this issue Philippe Busquin takes stock tive the Commission launched a wide­ go beyond the present static structure of of the current state of this debate and looks ranging European debate on this new '15 + 1' elements and develop a more ahead to the next stages in implementing strategic dynamic to create a genuine dynamic configuration which is based on a this new facet of the Community's research European Research Area. What was the more coherent implementation of the policy. reason for this initiative? actions of Member States at the national As luck would have it, two recently com­ level, of the Union within the Framework pleted European projects have produced Philippe Busquin: It is a response to a Programme and other policy instruments, very significant and relevant results. situation which I believe should be cause and of inter­governmental research organ­ The first (see p. 7) compares the national for concern. Scientific and technological isations. research support policies of 12 European development is clearly the engine for eco­ countries. The differences ­ and the similar­ nomic and social growth, and in particular Does this mean you want research poli­ ities ­ among them highlight both the ben­ for creating new jobs. Europe has one of the cies to be more coordinated? efits and the deficiencies of the current best research capacities in the world. But a I know this word frightens some people. European research system. lot of indicators show that we fall a long Coordinate does not mean 'impose' or The second (see p. 10) allowed around way short of our major competitors in the 'replace'. The idea is not for some kind of 200 experts to analyse the technological dynamism stakes. I will cite just one: our central control dictating what research must and social challenges Europe is going to be research expenditure has fallen to 1.8% of be undertaken, in Sweden or Portugal for facing by 2010. In addition to mapping the GDP compared to 3% in the United States example. I would prefer to speak of consul­ Union's strengths and weaknesses, the pro­ and Japan. tation with the aim of highlighting a shared ject's conclusions stress the handicap There is one circumstance which both desire to achieve major objectives, but with­ caused by the pointless fragmentation of aggravates this weakness and in part out wanting to paper over the diversity of Europe's research efforts. explains it. European research is frag­ approaches. The diversity of European In a context where the engine of growth mented. It is a jig­saw of 15 national scien­ research is an asset, but if it means every­ and progress is technological dynamism, tific and technological policies, plus the body working away on their own in their cor­ the creation of a European research area is European Union's RTD Framework Pro­ ner, then it becomes a liability. becoming more than an accepted priority. It gramme. The latter certainly encourages I believe we must return to the principle is an urgent need. ■ cross­border cooperation, but it operates of subsidiarity as laid down in the Treaties ­ too much as a 16th element simply tacked that is, for Europe to do what the individual onto the other 15. member states are unable to do at the In the United States and Japan, scientific national level. Organising coordination is and technological policy is rooted in a much one of the European Commission's funda­ more interdependent research fabric and mental missions and one that has long been exerts more effective leverage. The Euro­ accepted in the field of the economics and pean research area must be more firmly competitiveness. Intervie!

Philippe Busquin, Member of the European Commission responsible for research, and Michel Claessens, coordinator of RTD Info in the Communication Unit, during this interview: 'The European research area must be more firmly based on common approaches and objectives, on drawing more benefit from the diversity of its potential. '

A policy to strengthen the European those involved in scientific and technologi• where without anyone being aware of how reasearch area is therefore perfectly in line cal policy on the need to strengthen the significant they could ultimately be. with the spirit and thinking behind the European dimension of research policy. Treaties. I also think that the Union's re• Of course agreement must still be reached Do you mean by this that we are seeing search programmes have become rather on what directions to take to give substance European policy adopt a new approach in the victims of their own success, and of to the concept. The Portuguese presidency this field? the interest they have aroused. Science and the Commission are working to ensure No, because the introduction of the Fifth and technology have become determining that the next Research Council, to be held in Framework Programme already marked a to factors for economic growth and competi• June, can lay the foundations for this. turning point in introducing a new vision I tiveness, but I also have the impression and widening the role of European research, that the Union, that is all the member Is not one of the directions discussed refocusing it on providing very open and states as a whole, is being slow to adjust the importance of basic research, which concrete responses to the major challenges to this fact. has perhaps remained the poor relation in facing European society. In many fields European scientific and technological where the citizen rightly makes high After four months' debate on this new programmes? demands - health, food safety, the environ• approach to the European research area, It is true that many prominent members ment - the solutions which science and how has this idea been received? of Europe's scientific community believe technology can bring require new knowl• Remarkably well, because the European that basic research should be made a higher edge to be developed. A lot of European Council of heads of state and government, priority, and I share their concern. But at support has been committed to projects held on 23 and 24 March in Lisbon, largely the same time we must not lose sight of researching genetics, the traceability of ratified the principle. But I should also like Europe's weakness in translating research GMOs, climatic change, biodiversity, nan- to mention the important step taken two results into innovations. A number of major otechnologies, etc. weeks earlier with the meeting in Lisbon initiatives, such as the creation of a genuine organised by the [Portuguese research] European patent, should help correct this. I People have very high expectations of minister José Mariano Gago. believe we need to rebalance the various science and technology, but aren't they This was a genuine forum, the first of its activities to some extent. also rather suspicious of it? kind, during which ministers were able to We live in an age in which the dividing The impact of scientific and technologi• talk with officials from the major European lines between advanced science and appli• cal progress on social structures and intergovernmental institutions - CERN, the cations have broken down. New worlds of lifestyles is going to increase and acceler• ESA, EM BO, etc. - with representatives of knowledge are constantly developing and ate. This means that society is going to be leading national research institutions, radically changing the way we live. Look at faced with a number of choices and ethical industry and the universities, as well as with the impact the biosciences or space problems. Increasing pressures on the envi• a panel of leading figures from the world of research are having. Scientists are always ronment, the recent serious food-safety science. This dialogue, very much of the saying that the most important research crises (BSE and dioxin), and the marketing kind I would like to set up on a permanent projects are those which nobody has even of GMOs are quite rightly giving rise to pub• basis, revealed a real consensus among all thought of, but which are gestating some• lic concern, and could threaten confidence Ι π t e rvi ein

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in science. If we do not want this disen­ strengthening the European research area chantment to result in obscurantism and must also be taken into account. Thus, the regression, the scientific debate must be Sixth Framework Programme will also, for thrown open. example, take into account the importance There is very strong demand for such a of subjects such as the mobility of resear­ debate in Europe, but it is rooted in the con­ chers or the networking of centres of excel­ text of Europe's cultural diversity. This lence and infrastructures. Central to its diversity is a valuable and fertile resource, approach will certainly be a coordinated but it must be accompanied by a common vision of the European research effort as a dynamic for knowledge which is the only whole. ■ way to provide the answers on which soci­ ety's choices must be based. One of the tasks of the European research area is to provide a framework for this debate, The ways forward because the debate on these technical developments and their ethical and social implications increasingly needs to be held Among the recommendations for 'flexible, national research systems, development in a European context. decentralised and non­bureaucratic' actions policies and innovation capacities; I would add that it is particularly impor­ to promote a new European research area, • the creation of a rapid trans­European tant for young people to be made aware of the Lisbon European Council of March data communication network linking all the implications of science for society. It 2000 highlighted the following ways for­ its research institutes, universities and can be the best possible incentive for devel­ ward: ultimately the educational system as a oping a taste for knowledge and a passion • concerted action, on a voluntary basis, whole; for research. by national and European programmes to • strengthened policy for the mobility of optimise the resources allocated to Euro­ researchers, making it possible for Europe You will soon have to start work on pean research in the member states; to attract and retain the best scientific preparing the Sixth Framework Pro­ • the 'mapping' of European centres of minds; gramme for RTD 2002­2006, one of the excellence; • the creation of a simple and inexpensive major tasks of your period in office. How • fiscal measures, access to venture capi­ European patent system to guarantee as will this be influenced by your vision of tal and support from the European Invest­ effective an intellectual protection as the the European research area? ment Bank to create a more dynamic envi­ systems operating in Europe's principal I believe the fundamental approach must ronment stimulating private investment in competitors. remain the refocusing of European research research, partnerships and the creation of programmes on problem­solving. But when start­ups in high technologies; deciding the priorities, the new actions • the development of a transparent metho­ resulting from the present debate on dology for assessing the performance of Public research

Scientists give Werner Arber, their verdict Nobel Prize in Medicine, 1978

Nearly 30 scientists, winners of the most prestigious international awards, have given John Cornforth, their verdict on the strengths and weaknesses of European research. At an informalNobel Prize in Chemistry, 1975 meeting in Lisbon in March, they told European research ministers what they expect from Community policy. Here is what they had to say.

Jean Dausset, nsistence on the pursuit of progress come from small start­up several years now through its sup­ Nobel Prize in Medicine, 1980 useful and profitable goals firms,' believes Ivar Giaever (Nobel port for the mobility of resear­ D ignores the essential fact Prize in Physics, 1973). chers. Rudolf Mössbauer, (Nobel that the applications of funda­ 'We are only now beginning to Prize in Physics, 1961) believes mental research are usually un­ understand the importance of 'European programmes for young

known and cannot therefore be synergies between the research scientists are very helpful and Christian de Duve, planned in advance,' points out carried out at universities and should be continued,' while John Nobel Prize in Medicine, 1974 Christian de Duve (winner of the industrial applications,' adds Lord Cornforth (Nobel Prize in Chem­ Nobel Prize in Medicine, 1974). George Porter (Nobel Prize in istry, 1975) calls for 'a central 'This does not mean that applied Chemistry, 1967). These links will European library' operating over research must be neglected. But prove all the more effective 'if the Internet, giving cheap and researchers should be alerted to industrial scientists are ad per­ easy access to all the available Richard Ernst, the possible applications of their sonam professors at university scientific publications. These vir­ Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 1991 work and encouraged to partici­ and if advanced students can tual possibilities should serve to pate in their development.' carry out their research under create virtual centres of excel­ I qualified guidance at industrial lence, potential contact points for Q different disciplines. Ι­ No innovation without laboratories,' concludes Werner α: upstream commitment Arber (Nobel Prize for Medicine, What has the EU done for Euro­ Ivar Giaever, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1973 1978). pean research? A great deal in fact Although unanimity is rare, this ­ and it could do even more if it is one point on which the scien­ What can Europe do? were more flexible and less tists interviewed most certainly bureaucratic. 'EU programmes are agreed ­ and sent out an SOS. One of the reasons for these fine, but they should mainly coor­ Fundamental research requires a repeated references to the con­ dinate activities and not manipu­ Rudolf Mössbauer, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1961 long­term vision and needs sup­ trasting picture in the United late activities,' says Richard Ernst port ­ the investment made is States compared to Europe, is that (Nobel Prize for Chemistry, 1991). rarely lost. Just take a look across the brain drain, although reduced, It is scarcely surprising to find that the Atlantic. The importance has far from dried up. 'The only most scientists want to be much attached to 'generic research' and way to stop the brain­drain is to more closely involved in research George Porter, the scope available to scientists to organise the return of PhD stu­ policy and suffer from incompre­ Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 1967 move from ideas to innovation dents attracted by good and well­ hension on the part of govern­ means that the Americans 'per­ paid posts at research centres ments and politicians. Which does form better and react more working at the cutting edge of not stop I lya Prigogine (Nobel rapidly,' as Heinrich Rohrer (Nobel their discipline,' is how Jean Daus­ Prize in Chemistry, 1977) from Prize in Physics, 1986) puts it. set, winner of the 1980 Nobel making the point that 'research is llya Prigogine, Upstream commitment brings Prize in Medicine, pragmatically a policy in itself. Too tightly cou­ Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 1977 results. Many scientists call for sums up the situation. The way to pling its implementation with the development of the kind of keep talented research students in other policies could defocus the entrepreneurial scientific culture Europe is to give them the training work.' ■ that is found in the United States opportunities they need, which is with its many start­up and spin­ precisely what the European Heinrich Rohrer, off firms. 'Most inventions and Union has been trying to do for Nobel Prize in Physics, 1986 Public research The European scientific landscape

What new directions are national research support policies taking? What are their aims? What do the member states expect from the institutions they fund? How do the researchers view the situation? And what is the role of international support? A study funded by the European Union is now shedding light on all these questions, by combining a structural analysis with afield survey.

ix multidisciplinar/ teams the decision­makers transferred of sociologists, political tasks which had traditionally Βanalyst s and economists fallen to research institutes to have taken a long hard look at universities, which, due to a public research systems in 12 lack of equipment or human European countries varying in resources, were not necessarily size, growth rate, culture and in a position to take them on. level of scientific progress ­ the 'There is a need for new UK, France, Germany, Hungary, approaches which are better Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Italy, rooted in public concerns and Portugal, Spain, Norway and suited to each situation,' con­ Iceland. At the same time, a field tinues Mr Laredo. 'France, for survey was conducted among example, in addition to main­ 392 human genetics laborato­ taining these institutes, has set ries (see box p.9). This ambitious up a specific mechanism ­ com­ project, European Comparison plete with supporting legislation of Public Research Systems, was I ­ for the processing of nuclear Ι­ carried out over a two­year waste, an AIDS research agency, α: period with support from the An example of a centre of excellence of worldwide renown: a committee for research into 11 European Union.' CERN (the European Laboratory for Particle Physics near Geneva.)BSE , and ­ more recently ­ a View of one of the 6­metre diameter DELPHI detetìors in the LEP food safety agency. To me, the Research policies differ from electron­positron collider. one country to another, being concept of a generic approach rooted in a particular tradition seems completely outdated.' and history which affect their development. other hand, concentrated on meeting the However, over the past 30 years these dif­ needs of government policy and supporting Universities and innovation ferences have tended to erode due to a the industrial priorities set by governments. number of major ­ and common ­ trends, 'These institutes were expected to be able Throughout Europe there is the same ten­ such as the restructuring of research insti­ to anticipate and resolve questions that dency to encourage closer links between tutions, a marked priority for new technolo­ could arise in the fields of health, food public­sector research and private­sector gies, the emphasis on transfer to industry, safety, energy, etc.,' explains Philippe expectations. 'This is not new. Do not forget and the institutionalisation of evaluation Laredo, director of research at the Ecole des that Louis Pasteur made major break­ for programmes and institutions. Mines in Paris, who managed the project's throughs in biology at a time when he was laboratory survey. 'They were subject to seeking to solve problems posed by industry. Research institutes are taking various ­ and sometimes contradictory ­ It is useful for companies to help researchers a new direction reforms. In the United Kingdom they had to to identify priorities and to support their become more "service­oriented", in France projects. The situation is less healthy when In the past, public research seemed to they were pushed in the direction of acad­ public research is dependent on industrial have a more precisely defined mission. The emic research. In every case, these insti­ contracts for access to research grants,' key task of universities was to push back tutes failed to fulfil the role they should remarks Jacqueline Senker of Sussex Univer­ the frontiers of knowledge, transfer know­ have in preventing and controlling the sity, the project's coordinator. how, and train new generations of scien­ growing number of crises ­ contaminated Innovation and technology transfer are tists. The specialist public institutes, on the blood and BSE for example.' In some cases the two key terms ­ the watchwords ­ Public research

which have reshaped Europe's research pol• going to be a success,' continues Dr Senker, SME or company in the traditional sector to icy over the past 20 years. Ministerial port• who believes there is an 'urgent need to cor• find the necessary expertise. Some universi• folios reflect this objective, often combining rect this excessive emphasis on promoting ties are no longer interested in meeting science, technology and education. Imple• industrial innovation.' such unsophisticated needs.' mented under weak economic conditions, Too close a relationship between univer• And where does this emphasis on eco• without real command of all the informa• sities and industry raises a number of fun• nomic return leave fundamental research? tion and under time pressure, this reorienta• damental issues. Apart from the adverse Unfortunately, it is all too often the poor tion has often been based on ready-made effects of short-term, applied research on relation in the member states. Neglecting solutions. 'There has often been a tendency quality, Dr Senker believes that 'This coop• long-term research in this way is not with• to imitate what has succeeded elsewhere in eration can prejudice the status of "impar• out its effects in terms of failing to advance a comparable situation. Government enthu• tial expert", which is what researchers in knowledge, tending to discourage talented siasm for technology transfer does not nec• the field of scientific policy are expected to researchers from adopting a career with an essarily mean that these initiatives are be. It is also sometimes very difficult for an uncertain outcome, and penalising applied research, which is impossible without its upstream counterpart.

Countering the 'single policy' The hunt for funds 'Political perception of problems, orienta• tions and objectives has become increas• The public funds allocated to universities and Whatever form it takes, national research ingly similar in every country,' notes the research centres are traditionally channelled funding is inadequate in most countries. report. 'Institutions such as the OECD and through one of two paths: the research Additional sources available in certain coun• the European Union have reinforced this council finances specific research projects on tries include European funds (Ireland, Portu• trend. Their analyses of the various situa• a competitive basis following an evaluation gal, Spain), contracts with industry (Ger• tions and the solutions needed have had the by scientists; block grants allocate institutes many, Spain, Portugal, Ireland), and founda• same influence on the national debate, in a global amount which they are then free to tions set up by industry or all countries,' explains Dr Senker. She manage as they see fit. This latter method - non-profit-making associations (20% of the believes officials everywhere have jumped •I with a guarantee of independence - is research resources of British universities). on the bandwagon of evaluation, even if the becoming more common. Jacqueline Senker Some countries are also taking new initia• effectiveness and impartiality of its use believes that 'the two systems must continue tives, such as France which has just intro• varies from one country to another. to operate in parallel, although there should duced an 'ecotax' with the revenue collected This trend towards increasing uniformity perhaps be stricter control over the way in going to research on the environment and is nevertheless meeting resistance from which the money is spent in the case of the health. national cultures - cultures sometimes seen block grants. However, we must also remem• as obstacles to the 'new scientific policy' ber that they do allow scientists to explore sought by policy-makers. For Dr Senker this radically new fields which research-council 'multi-faceted' approach to research is evaluators might be inclined to refuse.' Innovation and technology transfer. The European watchwords of the past 20 years. essential: 'The diversity of national systems In the labs must continue. It stops us repeating our mistakes and permits new initiatives. It also benefits scientific research. The interaction In addition to the structural analysis of tion in the public debate. Different activity between scientists from different countries national public research policies, a field profiles were defined on the basis of the in EU­backed projects, each making their survey was conducted among 392 human way they combined these roles. Despite specific contribution, has generated an genetics laboratories in seven countries: the very 'fundamental' nature of their extremely creative process which is acceler­ France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Spain, research, more than half the laboratories ating the dissemination of knowledge Sweden, United Kingdom. 'These laborato­ have important links with hospitals and throughout Europe. European funding ries are to research what companies are to industry, which does not prevent two­ should promote multidisciplinary research, the economy: basic production units. Just thirds of them also playing a major acade­ which is often neglected by national pro­ as there are SMEs and multinationals, mic role. 'Our hypothesis is that the more f grammes, although it is frequently the innovators and imitators, pioneers and laboratories open up to other institutions I­ source of innovative scientific and techno­ developers, so too there are different kinds the more strongly autonomous their strat­ cc logical developments.' ■ of laboratory," explains Philippe Laredo, egies become, thanks to their involvement who managed the survey. in several different programmes, and their Human genetics was chosen because it is relations with the socio­economic world ­ representative of a new method of knowl­ companies and hospitals ­ etc.' These (1) Supported by the Fourth Framework Pro­ gramme's Targeted Socio­Economie Research edge production, is particularly active in strategic choices are made in situ, by each programme (TSER). the field of life sciences, adopts a trans­ laboratory, and quite independently of cri­ disciplinary approach, and places the teria of nationality or parent institution. It emphasis on applications while at the is this which 'must raise many questions same time having direct links with funda­ for the parent institutions and for incen­ mental research. 'This new method of tive policy, whether regional, national or knowledge production reflects the way in European.' which the use of skills and knowledge is being spread increasingly widely through­ out society and the economy. It also reflects a re­balancing of the roles, with research increasingly concentrating on problem­solving.' The idea was for the laboratories to pro­ Contact Jacqueline Senker vide a 'compass card' of research, taking SPRU Science and Technology Policy all their various activities into account: Research Unit production of certified knowledge, invol­ University of Sussex Contact Philippe Laredo vement in training, contribution to gaining Fax:+44­ 1273 685 865 Centre de Sociologie de l'Innovation [email protected] competitive advantages, anticipation and Ecole des Mines de Paris www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/psr/psr.html realisation of public objectives, participa­ [email protected] Future Studies

Accelerating into the future

The Joint Research Centre's IPJS (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) has just spent two years analysing the technological and social changes Europe is set to experience by the year 2010. It sets out a future in which the opportunities to be grasped will be matched by the challenges that must be met.

f there ¡sone thing the often chaotic mia and the public authorities. These consul­ components on which the expansion of the twists and turns of history have tations and the analyses of a large number of information society is founded, a race dom­ ΠI taugh t us, it is that there is no pre­ prospective studies in the field of science and inated by the United States and Asia. The dicting the future. Nevertheless, prospec­ technology, economics, sociology and poli­ question facing European decision­makers, tive studies seek to pave the way to the tics ­ at national and supranational level ­ whether in the public or the private sector, future by anticipating major trends. In this made it possible to comprehensively chart is quite clear: can Europe harness its ener­ age of accelerating change, it is a task that this interdependent and on­going techno­ gies and finally become a force to be reck­ is more vital than ever. logical change, as well as Europe's competi­ oned with on the strategic front of the This is certainly true for technology, and tive position in the face of globalisation, emerging technologies ­ such as new first and foremost the revolution in the employment, education, demography, and microchip generations, ¡mage technologies information society and life sciences. But it social changes (and their cost). and artificial intelligence software? is also important for the structures and 'What was a significant achievement, we Science and industry alone cannot provide organisation of society, marked as it is by believe, was the careful sifting and synthe­ the answer. Europe's ICT sector is already the inevitable ageing of the population, the sis of the source material in a way which estimated to be short of around 500 000 growing need for sustainable development, allowed the IPTS to throw key policy issues information technology experts. By 2003 the advent of the knowledge­based econ­ into clear relief,' point out Gustavo there could be as many as 1.7 million posts omy, and economic and cultural globalisa­ Fahrenkrog and Ken Ducatel, who have without the skilled personnel to fill them. ^ tion. coordinated the Futures project for two As to the booming life sciences, the pre­ What is more, Europe will face additional years. 'We have found that policy­makers sent debate on GMOs makes it perfectly changes triggered by the inherent dynamics are particularly interested in the reports clear that the serious ethical and political of launching the single currency and mar­ precisely because they cross the boundaries questions they raise can no longer be ket, plus the arrival of an impressive batch of conventional lines of analysis and policy ignored. Europe must find, for itself and on of new member states. concerns.' an international level, a transparent con­ sensus position which satisfies public con­ Simultaneous challenges The 'technological dynamo' cern by clarifying what can be scientifically defended as acceptable risks. Each of these developments is a chal­ The Futures report stresses the determin­ lenge in itself. But the need to reflect on ing role ofinformation and Communication Society dictates its needs Europe's future becomes all the more Technologies (ICTs) and life sciences, view­ urgent when one considers that all these ing them as the two driving forces in the The technologies which succeed are changes will occur simultaneously and 'technological dynamo' which is driving all those which are adopted by society. This within the next decade. It is impossible to the other changes. Europe presents a con­ means that changes in lifestyle, human spread these changes over time. This simul­ trasting picture in this field. In many capital, and social problems hold the keys to taneity in itself represents a further chal­ sophisticated applications involving com­ the future. In this respect Europe presents a lenge, and on a scale unlike anything seen plex new technologies ­ mobile communi­ complex mosaic and the Futures report pre­ before. It is this cross­analysis of the inter­ cations, or biotechnological and biomedical sents a scenario with increasingly diverse actions between these imminent changes research for example ­ Europe has achieved situations and patterns of social behaviour. which is the distinctive feature of the a strong position. The same is true for sec­ The demographic challenge and its impli­ approach adopted by the Futures project tors which are increasingly incorporating a cations for employment could not be (see box). bundle of new technologies, such as trans­ clearer. From 2007, the growth of the work­ This wide­ranging multidisciplinary study port and clean technologies. ing population, which until then will have was launched by the IPTS at the beginning of However, over the past two decades continued to rise gently, will begin a long 1998. Almost 200 experts and policy­makers Europe has clearly been lagging behind in descent, eventually becoming negative. were involved, drawn from industry, acade­ the race to design and develop the basic There will even be an inversion of the pyra­ The upside­down workforce

The changing proportions of 15­24­year­olds and 55­64­year­olds in the total population ­ European Union ­ 1995­2025

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15­24 year olds ■ 55­64 years old

mid, with workers aged between 55 and 65 periphery, but also new social dividing lines ment will further add to these scale effects, for the first time outnumbering those aged such as the 'haves' and 'have nots' of while at the same time presenting the Union between 15 and 24. What is more, it is a knowledge, the work rich and the work with delicate problems of internal cohesion. trend with no end in sight. In 2025, the poor, and the wealthy retired as opposed to We must establish solid pillars for joint poli­ I over­65s will account for the equivalent of those on minimum incomes.' cies while at the same time respecting the Q 38% of the working population, compared increased diversity of situations.' ■ CC with 25% in 1995. This 'grandpa boom' is At European level going to affect not only the labour market, but also society's needs and the problem it One of the key lessons to be drawn from will have paying to meet these. the Futures analyses is that none of the Such a trend might at first seem like good challenges we are facing can be met with­ news for unemployment. But only ­ and this out adopting a common Europe­wide strat­ is far from certain ­ if Europe succeeds in egy. This is for the simple reason that polit­ making the transition to a knowledge­ ically ­ and in terms of regional or global based society without further delay. Educa­ governance in the context of a globalised tion and training are already facing the world ­ the necessary changes are only pos­ immense task of providing lifelong learning. sible if the European Union as a whole is In addition to the employment aspects, this totally committed to achieving them. 'A cru­ is going to be increasingly necessary in cial advantage lies in the formidable poten­ terms of the day­to­day lives of citizens in tial available to Europeans due to the effects all their social and cultural relationships. of scale stemming from the size of their 'Otherwise there will be a serious mismatch community,' explain Gustavo Fahrenkrog between what is technologically possible and Ken Ducatel. 'There are many areas in and what is socially accepted,' points out which efforts are still uselessly fragmented Last February the Futures project culmi­ Jean­Marie Cadiou, IPTS director, in the and this holds us back. Examples include nated in a major conference in Brussels introduction to the Futures report summary. standards for electronic payment systems, to present its results. The 15 reports pro­ 'This issue also raises the spectre of a mul­ and, more generally, the need for a com­ viding a comprehensive summary of its tipolarised society in Europe, in which we bined voice in international arenas on issues work can all be downloaded from the will not only have traditional divisions such as genetically modified organisms and website at: http://futures.jrc.es between rich and poor, between core and the reduction in greenhouse gases. Enlarge­

fa Biomedlcine Diabetes reveals its genes

Diabetes and its complications are a growing public health concern in Europe. To understand the role ofgenetic determinism in this complex disease, a consortium of European laboratories has gathered medical data on several thousand diabetes families and defined a common approach based on post-genomic analysis. The aim is to develop new medicines and an experimental methodology which can be applied to other complex diseases.

or the physiologist, diabetes is an ill• type 2 diabetes is a mucigenic and polyfac- complex disease is to combine a traditional ness whose main symptom is the toral disease. genetic study with a post-genomic ap• Q presence of sugars in the urine. For The question therefore is how to identify proach. The term itself is a contraction of the doctor, there is diabetes... and diabetes. the role of genetics as distinct from lifestyle, 'genetic' and 'informatie', and indicates the This is because the presence of sugars in the and how to determine what genes are new horizons opening up to biomedical urine can be a symptom of two very differ• involved. This is the task of GIF (Genome research, which is seeking to understand ent diseases. Type 1 diabetes, which accounts Integrated Force on Type 2 diabetes), a Euro• and interpret the vast amount of informa• for about 10% of all diabetes patients, pean research network coordinated by tion now available on the human genome affects young people and causes a progres• Philippe Froguel and financed by the EU.(1) sequence,' explains Philippe Froguel. sive destruction of the pancreas. Type 2 is As in any study of medical genetics, the GIFT'S Danish partner is responsible for an illness of later life and involves a loss of first step is to gather data on patient fami- the genetic epidemiological study to iden• sensitivity to insulin, the hor• tify which genes predispose mone secreted by the pan• an individual to developing creas. Also known as non- diabetes, their position on the insulin-dependent diabetes, chromosomes and their type 2 diabetes affects more sequences. A British team is than 100 million people providing the necessary ex• worldwide and becomes in• pertise in the field of bio- f creasingly common with age. informatics and statistical In Europe, diabetes and its analysis. This first research serious complications - such stage has already made con• as blindness, kidney com• siderable progress, identifying plaints and cardiovascular on chromosome 20 a DNA problems - account for 8% of sequence (a locus) which is all medical costs. significant for the predisposi• tion to develop type 2 dia• Genetic determinism betes. But it is one thing to The fondus oculis