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EGYPT REVIEW 2017..2018.. Amended

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EGYPT REVIEW 2017..2018.. Amended EGYPT FACT SHEET Capital : Cairo Head of State : Mr. Abdel Fatah Al Sisi Surface Area : 1,001,450 sq. km. Head of Government : Prime Minister Eng. Sherif Ismail Official Language : Arabic / English Independent figure (not associated with a party) Population : 95 million (2017) Took the post sine 5 April, 2014 Exchange Rate : US$ = 18.00 Egyptian Pounds Minister of Trade and Industry : Mr. Tarek Kabil Egypt is the third-most-populous country in Africa and the 15th worldwide, according to World Bank figures. As of 2017 the number of residents was estimated to have reached 95m. Arabic is the official language and the only one widely understood across the entire country. Over the last 15 years, Egypt has been undergoing a transformation into a market-oriented economy. The country currently maintains a lower- middle-income status. While there is substantial potential to push the country towards middle-income status, GDP growth rates were stalled – first by the global economic crisis and then by political instability. Nevertheless, the economy grew at a rate of nearly 4.3% in FY 2015/16 and FY 2016/17. Egypt is a presidential republic. The current president is Abdel Fattah El Sisi, who was elected to his first four- year term in May 2014, following the removal of the previous administration of Mohamed Morsi, then has been re-elected for a second term by May, 2018. ECONOMY Occupying the northeast corner of the African continent, Egypt is bisected by the highly fertile Nile valley where most economic activity takes place. Egypt's economy was highly centralized during the rule of former President Gamal Abdel NASSER but opened up considerably under former Presidents Anwar EL-SADAT and Mohamed Hosni MUBARAK. Agriculture, hydrocarbons, manufacturing, tourism, and other service sectors drove the country’s relatively diverse economic activity. Despite Egypt’s mixed record for attracting foreign investment over the past two decades, poor living conditions and limited job opportunities have contributed to public discontent. These socioeconomic pressures were a major factor leading to the January 2011 revolution that ousted MUBARAK. The uncertain political, security, and policy environment since 2011 has restricted economic growth and failed to alleviate persistent unemployment, especially among the young. In late 2016, persistent dollar shortages and waning aid from its Gulf allies led Cairo to turn to the IMF for a 3-year, $12 billion loan program. To secure the deal, Cairo floated its currency, introduced new taxes, and cut energy subsidies - all of which pushed inflation above 30% for most of 2017, a high that had not been seen in a generation. Since the currency float, foreign investment in Egypt’s high interest treasury bills has risen exponentially, boosting both dollar availability and central bank reserves. Cairo will need to make a sustained effort to implement a range of business reforms, however, to induce foreign and local investment in manufacturing and other labor-intensive sectors. Overview • The economic outlook for 2018 remains cautiously optimistic largely based on the government’s ability to maintain the policy and structural reform agenda as well as successfully implement the sustainable development strategy. • Assuming economic policy and structural reform implementation, growth is expected to accelerate as confidence returns and investment increases, although some domestic issues and global economic headwinds will remain challenges. • Overall, Egypt can reverse the major and long-standing trend of low and non-inclusive growth along with weak employment prospects on the basis of the potential of the industrial and entrepreneurial sectors. The formal “political roadmap” has been completed and attention is now focused on management of the reform programme and how this will support growth in 2018 and beyond. With foreign exchange now more readily available after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) liberalized the exchange rate in November 2016, the outlook for 2018 is more optimistic. Assuming reforms continue to be implemented, growth should pick up slightly because of positive developments in the gas, manufacturing and real estate sectors, 1 alongside recovery in the tourism sector from recent security-related issues. However, managing to contain the large fiscal and current account deficits in an environment of high inflation will be a challenge in the remainder of 2018 and beyond. Success in stabilizing the economy and boosting growth will be demonstrated by lowering the fiscal deficit while: increasing pro-poor spending; managing price stability in a context of exchange- rate flexibility; increasing employment; enhancing the business environment; strengthening security; and improving social justice. Fiscal consolidation efforts will be continued through the 2017/18 budget supported by expenditure enhancements contained in the Civil Service Law (approved in early October 2016), and revenue strengthening provided via the introduction of the VAT law in mid-2016. Other revenue- and expenditure-management tools will also be utilized, such as the August 2016 tax disputes resolution law, and there will be further efforts to reduce energy subsidies with savings directed towards social safety nets. The new investment approved by the parliament should help strengthen the business environment, support the private sector and boost employment. With the exchange rate now liberalized, the CBE will be able to strike a better balance between curbing inflationary pressures and boosting growth without simultaneously having to focus on keeping the exchange rate steady. The economy is relatively well diversified but despite large-scale industrialization, investment has not delivered a vibrant economy with high employment. The reforms are designed to help improve productivity and efficiency in order to boost employment and move away from the “informality trap”. Yet increased industrialization and entrepreneurship depends not only on a strong and supportive policy environment, but also on access to more natural resources, capital, improved technology and higher skilled labor. Economic performance and outlook In 2016/17, real GDP grew an estimated 4.1%, slightly underperforming the 4.3% in 2015/16. Growth is driven mainly by investment and private and public consumption, as well as by net exports, which contributed positively for the first time in two years. This positive performance reflects the government’s reform efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation, more inclusive growth, and an improved business environment. The approval of a three-year International Monetary Fund (IMF) program in November 2016 showed the success of those efforts. Growth is projected to be 4.8% in 2017/18 and 5.5% in 2018/19, boosted by restored investor confidence but partially diluted by high inflation. Inflation rose to an estimated 23.3% in 2016/17, from 10.3% in 2015/16, and is projected to decline to 21.2% in 2017/18 and 13.7% in 2018/19. Real GDP growth % Real GDP growth (%) Northern Africa (%) Africa (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(p) 2 Macroeconomic indicators 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18(p) Real GDP growth 4.2 4.3 3.9 4.6 Real GDP per capital growth 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.5 CPI inflation 11.0 10.1 16.9 12.9 Budget balance % GDP -11.4 -12.8 -11.5 -9.7 Current account % GDP -3.7 -5.9 -5.2 -5.0 Macroeconomic evolution After facing important imbalances that led to high public debt, a widening current account deficit, and declining official reserves, Egypt embarked on a major IMF-backed economic reform initiative. It consists of exchange rate liberalization; fiscal consolidation, including energy subsidy cuts and reduction of the wage bill; and business climate improvement, including easier access to financing for small and medium-size enterprises, mainly through targeted cash transfers for the most vulnerable. Macroeconomic conditions show signs of improvement. On the demand side, the Ministry of Finance’s July 2016–March 2017 data indicate year-on-year growth of 17% for investment, 4.4% for private consumption, and 2.4% for public consumption. The 72% increase in exports was partly offset by the 47% increase in imports. On the supply side, eight key sectors, representing about two-thirds of GDP, led growth: telecommunications (grew 9.3%), construction (grew 8.5%), wholesale and retail trade (grew 4.7%), nonoil manufacturing (grew 4.7%), natural gas (grew 4.6%), real estate (grew 4.3%), agriculture (grew 3.1), and general government (grew 2.9%). Tourism declined 6.7%. GDP by sector (percentage of GDP at current prices) 2010/11 2016/17 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 14.5 12.1 of which fishing ... ... Mining and quarrying 14.9 7.9 of which oil 14.5 6.6 Manufacturing 16.5 17.5 Electricity, gas and water 1.6 2.3 Construction 4.6 5.2 Wholesale and retail trade; Repair of vehicles; 14.7 16.4 Household goods; Restaurants and hotels of which hotels and restaurants 3.2 2.1 Transport, storage and communication 9.4 8.3 Finance, real estate and business services 9.7 15.1 Public administration and defence 10.2 10.1 Other services 3.9 5.1 Gross domestic product at basic prices / factor cost 100 100 Tailwinds The IMF-supported homegrown reforms, backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank through budget support of $4.5 billion over three fiscal years, are paying off. Currency depreciation boosted foreign direct investment, the economy is considered more competitive, and business confidence has improved. Public investment, through a series of megaprojects, boosted growth in 2016/17. Better markets conditions have been a main factor in the return to growth, particularly benefitting exports, led by mining products, especially gold and oil (mostly crude petroleum). The program’s fiscal consolidation aspect—which includes increasing tax revenues 2.5% from 2015/16 to 2018/19; reducing public expenditure by slashing subsidies, notably to fuel; and containing the government wage bill—has improved the macroeconomic environment.
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