NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 4
'.
ANNVAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION
ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES 1976
Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC
National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida May 1977 927
/ N~tlOnJI Weather UNITED STATES / NATIONALOCEANIC AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Ser,.ce JuanitaM. Kreps.Secretary Robert Y. White. AdminIstrator Ceoree P Clessman. Director INTRODUCTION
This is the third report of an annual series prepared by the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data on Atlantic
tropical cyclones. It will not duplicate the narrative overview of the
hurricane season and the description of the individual storms, which will
continue to be published in the Monthly Weather Review.
In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service, materials
have been furnished by the NOAA National Environmental Satellite Services (NESS)
Miami office, and the CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, all
OBJECTIVE FORECASTTECHNIQUES
The follo~ing tropical cyclo~e prediction models were used at the National
Hurricane Center for forecasting moJlon on an operational basis:
NHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968). A stepwise screening regression
model using predictors derived from the current and 24-hour old 1000,
and 500 rob data, and includes persistence during the early fore-
cast periods.
SANBAR (Sanders and Burpee, 1968). A filtered barotropic model usin~
input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb pressure weighted winds.
.The model requires the use of "bogus" data in data-void areas. The
system was modified by Pike, (1972) so that the initial wind fie1ri
near the storm would conform to the current storm motion.
3. HURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970). An analog system using as a data
base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes dating
back to 1886
CLIPER (Neumann, 1972). Stepwise multiple screening regression using
the predictors derived from climatology and persistence.
2.1.4.Hurricanes).700, NHC-Z2 (Neumann. Hope. Miller. I972). A modified stepwise multiple
screening regression system wh~ch combines the NHC-67 concept and
the CLIPER system into a single model.
6. NHC-r3 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973). Similar in concept to the NHC- 72 except it also uses the "perfect prog" and Mas (model output statis-
tics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteorological Center) numer-
ical prognostic data into the prediction equations.
7 ~c MFM MODEL (Hovermale, 1975). A ten-level baroclinic model which
uses a moving fine mesh (MFM) grid nested within the coarser NMC fixed
grid primitive equation (PE) model. It is capable of predicting both
track and intensity changes.
The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance in the
formulation of its forecasts. The hurricane forecaster also makes extensive use
of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional Center for Tropical
Meteorology) in Miami.
VERIFICATION Verification statistics for the 1976 season are shown in Table 1 (Pelissier,
The initial position error in Table 1 is the difference between the
operational initial position and that determined during post analysis (best tra~k
The forecast displacement error is the vector difference between the
forecast displacement and the actual displacement computed from best-trackpositions.
The la~dfall prediction error for the official forecasts is given
in Table 2. It is defined as the distance from the predicted landfall point.
made 24 hours prior to actual landfall, to the actual landfall point. In cases
where a storm either crossed an island or made landfall when predicted to remain
the error was designated as the distance from the landfall point to
the nearest point on the forecast track.
2
5.1975).position).offshore, A summary of 1976 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is given
in Table 3. Tracks of 1976 named storms are shown in Figure 1
The best track. initial. and forecast positions for 1976 named storms
are in Table 4, along with initial position and forecast errors.
Table 5 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations used
operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1976. ~I Fixes are in chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance
penetrations and radar, satellite (Miami SFSS), and land-based radar.
Table 6 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1976 season.
A number of vortex projiles constructed from data obtained by aerial
reconnaissance are shown in 'Figure 2. These profiles show win9s, temperatures,
dew-P?ints, D-values, and weather in the four quadrants of the storms at speci-
fied distances from the center out to 80 n.mi. They are produced operationally .- on the NHC Varian computer. The plotting model along with a diagram of the
paths flown in obtaining the vortex profiles is given in Figure 3.
Graphs of the lowest central pressure vs. time for 1976 tropical cyclones
are in Figure 4
Daily SMS-1 satellite photographs of 1976 named tropical cyclones are in
Figure 5.
Selected radar photographs of Belle are in Figure 6.
3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Main contributers were: Ms. Dorothy Mixon and Ms. Wanda Lund, who
listed the center fixes in chronological order; Ms. Mary Watson, who did
the pressure-time graphs; Ms. Lilias Wilson, who typed the tables and
Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the verification statistics; ~ the NHC Data Automation Section, which furnished the vortex profiles; and
James Eskdale, who composited the satellite and radar photographs.
"
4 manuscript; REFERENCES
Hope, J. R. and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique for Relating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to P~st Tracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.
Hovermale, J. B. 1975: First season storm movement characteristics of the NMC objective hurricane forecast model. Minutes of the NOAA Hurricane Warning Conference, National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, Florida.
Miller, B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Technique for Forecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods, "Monthly Wea~herRev_!ew. Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548
Neumann, C. J., 1972: "An Alternate to the HURRANTropical Cyclone Forecast System", ~ Technical MemorandumNWS SR-62, 24 pp.
J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: itA Statistical Method of Combining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone ~rediction Systems", BQM. Technical Memorandum NWS SR-63, 32 pp.
and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion (NHC-73)", ~ Technical Memorandum NWS SR-69, 34 pp.
Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction by Adjustment of the Initial Wind Field", NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-66, 16 pp.
Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic Hurri- cane Track Forecasting", Journal2!;.. Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7, No.3, pp. 313-323.
J. M.. 1975: Minutes of the NOAA Hurricane Warning Conference. National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, Florida.
...
.~
5
Pelissier. LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1.. Tracks of 1976 tropical cyclones.
Figure 2. Vortex profiles, 1976 tropical cyclones.
Figure 3. Data plotting model and flight pattern flown in obtaining vortex profiles.
Figure 4. Lowest pressure vs. time, 1976 tropical cyclones
Figure 5. Daily satellite photographs of 1976 tropical storms andhurricanes.
Figure 6. Selected radar photographs of Belle.
Table 1. Verification of 1976 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts Figures in parenthesis are the number of cases.
Table 2. Landfall errors of 1976 tropical storms and hurricanes
Table 3. Summary of 1976 tropical cyclone statistics Table 4. Best track, initial and forecast positions, initial position error and forecast errors for 1976 tropical cyclones.
Table 5. Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for 1976 tropical cyclones. Table 6. Aerial Weather Reconnaissance summary for 1976 hurricane season (Atlantic and Pacific).
6 \
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Figure2. Vortex profiles, 1976 tropical cyclones.
8 Figure 2 continued. ',9,t.
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2l Figure 2 cont:illued. 22 --- Figure 2 continued.
23 ff- ddr T~ 6 ZZZ
TdTd
III "0" VALUE (TENS OF FEET) TT TEMPERATURE DEW POINT TdTd W PRESENT WEATHER dd WIND DIRECTION f f WIND SPEED
Figure.3. D:1ta plotting model (bottom) and flight pattern fl~ (top) in obtaining vortex profiles.
24 TROP!C.l\l STORM ANNA
20 JULY -1 AUGUST 1976
m-1010 -~ w a: 1000 :J U') U') w a: a. 990 .. 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 .~ i I I I I' I I ,
29 30 31 01 DATE -TIME (GMT)
HURRICANE BELLE 6-10 AUGUST 1976
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960
950
12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 ,~ J I I I I I I I
07 08 09 IC) DATE -TIME (GMT)
Figure 4. Lowest pres~ure vs. timel 197~ tropical cyclones.
25
- HURRICANE .CANDICE 18- 24 AUGUST 1976 1010
1000
-m ~ - 990 w. a: :J (/). (/) 980 a:W a.
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12 00[", '2 00-I-If' 12 00 12 00I 12'I 00 12I -~~00 12 '9 20 21 22 23 24 DATE -TIME (GMT)
Figure 4 continued.
26 - HURRICANE EMMY 21 AUGUST -4 SEPTEMBER 1976
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Figure 4 continued.
27 HURRICANE GLORIA 26 SEPTEMBER -4 OCTOBER 1976
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HURRICANE HOLLY 22 -28 OCTOBER 1976
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Figure 4 contjnued.
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Figure 5. 29
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Figure 5 continued. 31
1601 Off 10/2)/76 100) "8 1&31 CJIT 10/21./76 991 PlB 1601 Qff 10/25/76 10» I!!
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Figure 5 continued. 34 Patuxent River.. !old. Patuxent River.. Md. August 9,1976 22152 August 9, 1976 23302
Cape Hatteras, N.C. Cape Hatteras, N.C. August 9.. 1976 11002 August 9, 1976 12302
Wi1Jnington, N.C. Wilmington,N. C. August 9~ 1976 06002 August 9, 1976 10002
Figure6. Selected radar photographs of Belle.
35 Table 1. Verification of 1976 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.
Figures in parenthesis are number of cases.
INITIAL POSITION FORECAST DISPLAC~IENT ERRORS (N.MI.) METHOD ERROR (N.MI.) 12 HR 24 HR 48 HR 72 HR
OFFICIAL 21 58 127 285 430 (159) (159) (144) (113) (85)
NHC-67 17 63 136 325 531 (138) (138) (130) (120) (89)
NHC-72 20 61 150 309 427 (162) (162) (146) (117) (93)
NHC-73 18 56 131 265 369 (70) (70) (66) (55) (45)
HURRAN 19 57 145 385 554 (54) (54) (50) (41) (31)
CLIPER 20 61 141 323 457 (163) (163) (147) (118) (94)
SANBAR 19 60 136 277 399 (72) (72) (68) (56) (44)
Table 2. Landfall errors of 1976 tropical storms and hurricanes.
STORM NAME LANDFALL DAY FORECAST ERROR (N .MI.) ..~ Belle August 10 30 Jones Beach, Long Island, NY
Dottie August 20 5 Folly Beach, SC
36 Table 3. Summary of 1976 Tropical Cyclone Statistics
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED LOWEST u.s. WINDS PRESSURE DAMAGE NO. NAME CLASS DATES (KT) (MB) ($ MILLION) DEATHS
ANNA T JULY 28-AUG. 6 40 999
2. BELLE H 6 -10 105 957 100 U.S., 5
3. CANDICE H 18 -24 80 964
4. DOTTIE T 17 -21 45 996 MINOR U.S., 4
EMMY H 20 -SEPT. 4 90 974 AZORES, 681
6. FRANCES H AUG. 27 -SEPT. 7 100 963
7. GLORIA H SEPT. 26 -OCT. 4 90 970
8. HOLLY H 22 -28 65 990
1 DEATHS CAUSED BY PLANE CRASH AT LAJES DURING HEIGHT OF STORM.
37
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