Risk Climate Change and Climate Risks: the case of and
riskam.ul.pt the Lisbon Metropolitan Area
Management Hazards
and José Luís Zêzere ([email protected]) ULisboa – Sandra Oliveira, Ricardo Garcia, António Lopes, Marcelo
IGOT IGOT Fragoso, Ezequiel Correia, Raquel Melo
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Assessment Environmental
CEG CEG Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território Universidade de LIsboa Riskam.ul.pt
Technical-scientific partnership Riskam.ul.pt
Climate framework and climate scenarios in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA)
Goals: • Identify changes in the future climate; • Characterize the spatio-temporal diversity of the projected anomalies; • Two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; • Project future climate normals; • Identify anomalies of the projected climate normals in relation to the average values of the simulated historical period (1971-2000). Riskam.ul.pt
MCTU Morpho-Climate Terrain Units
LO – Litoral Oeste SCE – Serras e Colinas da Estremadura CT – Colinas do Tejo VTS – Vales do Tejo e Sado PL – Península de Lisboa PS – Península de Setúbal PP – Peneplanície Riskam.ul.pt
Stewart & Oke (2012) Stewart, Oke & Krayenhoff (2014) Riskam.ul.pt
UCRTU Unique Climate Response Terrain Units Ongoing Climate Changes Riskam.ul.pt
Recent trends
Tmax (°C / Decade) Tmin (°C / Decade) Climate Changes Scenarios Riskam.ul.pt
Annual anomalies of very hot days
LO – Litoral Oeste SCE – Serras e Colinas da Estremadura CT – Colinas do Tejo Annual anomalies of heat wave days VTS – Vales do Tejo e Sado Anomalias anuais de dias em onda de calor PL – Península de Lisboa PS – Península de Setúbal PP – Peneplanície Climate Changes Scenarios Riskam.ul.pt
Annual anomalies of days with heavy rainfall (> 20mm)
LO – Litoral Oeste SCE – Serras e Colinas da Estremadura CT – Colinas do Tejo VTS – Vales do Tejo e Sado PL – Península de Lisboa PS – Península de Setúbal PP – Peneplanície Sea Level Rise Scenarios Riskam.ul.pt
Antunes, C (2019) Sea Level Rise Scenarios Riskam.ul.pt
Antunes, C (2019) Climate Risks Mapping: Present-day and Future Riskam.ul.pt
Present-day :
• Direct mapping of dangerous areas based on geomorphologic and hydrologic criteria; Indirect mapping using quantitative methods, based on the analysis of the causes of dangerous processes; • Qualitative classification of susceptibility of administrative units (parishes).
Future:
• Time horizon: 2071-2100; • Scenarios: major trends in the forcing elements (intense precipitation and temperature) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, spatialized over Morpho-Climatic Terrain Units; • Qualitative classification of susceptibility of parishes, combining the current hazard with the trend of the forcing elements. Major Climate Driven Hazards (Safety of people and assets) Riskam.ul.pt
• Flash floods and urban floods
• Coastal floods and coastal erosion
• Landslides
• Wildfires Flash floods and Urban floods Riskam.ul.pt
All municipalities of LMA (18) are subjected to flash flooding / urban flooding 10000 exposed buildings 72000 exposed people
Lisbon, Setúbal and Odivelas have the highest risk (4800 exposed buildings; 45000 exposed people) Sintra, Vila Franca de Xira, Seixal, Loures, Cascais and Oeiras also have high flood risk 117 Critical facilities are installed in flooded area: 52 social buildings 39 educational buildings 22 health-care buildings Flash floods and Urban floods Riskam.ul.pt
PRESENT FUTURE (2071-2100) Coastal floods and Beach erosion Riskam.ul.pt
Coastal (and estuarine) floods and beach erosion affect 8 municipalities: Almada, Barreiro, Lisbon, Moita, Montijo, Seixal and Sintra.
Almada has the greatest risk with more than 1200 exposed people and 650 exposed buildings. Coastal floods and Beach erosion Riskam.ul.pt
PRESENT FUTURE (2071-2100) Landslides Riskam.ul.pt
Landslides affect seriously 11 municipalities. Vila Franca de Xira, Sintra, Odivelas, Loures and Mafra have the highest risk: 7600 exposed buildings 3500 exposed people
7 Critical facilities are located in unstable slopes: 5 social buildings 2 educational buildings Landslides Riskam.ul.pt
PRESENT FUTURE (2071-2100) Wildfires Riskam.ul.pt
Forest fire hot-spots in Sinta and Arrábida Mountains
Loures, Sintra, Mafra, Vila Franca de Xira have the highest risk: 1900 exposed buildings 3300 exposed people
18 Critical facilities are located in dangerous urban-forest interface areas: 10 social buildings 4 educational buildings 4 heath-care buildings Wildfires Riskam.ul.pt
PRESENT FUTURE (2071-2100) To conclude… Riskam.ul.pt
Currently: 97 thousand people, 17 thousand buildings and 57 thousand lodgments exposed in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area to flash floods and urban floods, coastal flooding and beach erosion, landslides and wildfires.
In the future: ?????? , but we expect the climate driven hazards will increase in territorial extension.
There is a need for continuous monitoring of climate, hazards, exposure and vulnerability of exposed elements. Riskam.ul.pt