DOCSLIB.ORG

UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA, IRVINE The

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA, IRVINE The UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE The Prevalence of Populism in South America: Crafting Credible and Competitive Candidates DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Political Science by Robert Nyenhuis Dissertation Committee: Professor Russell Dalton, Co-Chair Associate Professor Diana Kapiszewski, Co-Chair Professor Louis Desipio Professor Anthony McGann 2016 © 2016 Robert Nyenhuis DEDICATION To my amazing parents and loving family around the world who always supported and encouraged me. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES iv LIST OF TABLES v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vii CURRICULUM VITAE ix ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION xi CHAPTER 1: The Prevalence of Populism in South America 1 CHAPTER 2: Operationalizing Populism, Explaining Citizens’ Voting Behavior, and Scoring Populist Candidates 24 CHAPTER 3: Quantitative Analysis of Citizens Voting for Populist Candidates 70 Appendix A: Additional Statistical Models 99 CHAPTER 4: The Political Longevity of Evo Morales and MAS 103 Appendix B: Additional Statistical Models for Bolivia 146 CHAPTER 5: The Political Inroads of Outsider Populists in Chile 151 Appendix C: Additional Statistical Models for Chile 182 CHAPTER 6: The Prevalence of Populism in South America, Lessons for Latin America 183 and Global Politics REFERENCES (OR BIBLIOGRAPHY) 201 iii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 2.1 Visual Illustration of My Theory 95 Figure 3.1 Summary Depicting Results of Hypothesis Testing 105 Figure 4.1 Departments Won by Morales in the Presidential Elections, National 106 Vote Share in Parentheses Figure 4.2 The Overlap of Morales’ Populist Appeals, His Personal Characteristics 107 and Characteristics of the Electorate, 2003-2006 Figure 4.3 The Overlap of Morales’ Populist Appeals, His Personal Characteristics 108 and Characteristics of the Electorate, 2003-2006 Figure 4.4 The Causal Story of Citizens’ Voting for Morales 126 Figure 5.1 The Overlap of Parisi’s Populist Appeals, His Personal Characteristics 154 and Characteristics of the Electorate, 2013 Figure 5.2 Chilean Electoral Polling Data 156 Figure 5.3 Median Responses for Each Candidate’s Ideological Placement, Placed 170 by Survey Respondents iv LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.1 My Operationalization of Populism 6 Table 1.2 Populist Aggregate Score, by Country and Presidential Election 8 Table 1.3 Country Scores on the Independent Variables 10 Table 2.1 Chronology of Definitions of Populism 26 Table 2.2 My Operationalization of Populism as a Political Style 35 Table 3.1 My Operationalization of Populism as a Political Style 72 Table 3.2 Populist Candidates by Score and Vote Share 74 Table 3.3 Hypotheses and Expected Findings 79 Table 3.4 Logistic Analysis of Support for Populist Presidential Candidates 84 Using Data from Surveys Conducted Prior to Election (Future voting) Table 3.5 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Populists as Predictors 88 Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on Logistic Regression Using Data from Surveys Conducted Prior to Election (future voting) Table 3.6 Logistic Analysis of Support for Populist Presidential Candidates 91 Using Data from Surveys Conducted After the Election (Past voting) Table 3.7 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Populists as Variables 93 Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on Past Voting for Non Incumbents Model Table 3.8 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Populists as Predictors 99 Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on Logistic Regression Using Data from Surveys Conducted Prior to Election (future voting) Table 3.9 Logistic Analysis of Support for Populist Presidential Candidates 100 Using Data from Surveys Fielded After the Election (Past voting) v Table 4.1 Vote Share for Evo Morales in Presidential Elections, 2005-2014, 105 by Department Table 4.2 Logistic Analysis of Voting Intention for Evo Morales, 2006-2014 105 Table 4.3 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Evo Morales as 120 Variables Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on the Logistic Regressions above Table 4.4 Logistic Analysis of Voting Intention for Evo Morales, 2008-2014 146 Table 4.5 Logistic Analysis of Citizen Inclination to Protest 147 Table 4.6 Correlates of 2014 Support for the Movement towards Socialism 148 (MAS) Party Table 4.7 Logistic Analysis of Support for Evo Morales in 2014 148 Table 5.1 2013 Chilean Presidential Election, First Round Vote Share, 156 by Candidate Table 5.2 Logistic Analysis of Voting Turnout in 2013 Chilean Presidential Election 164 Table 5.3 Multinomial Logistic Analysis of Voting Intention 170 [Franco Parisi as baseline], 2013 Chilean presidential election Table 5.4 Most Pressing Concerns among Chilean Citizens 174 Table 5.5 Voted Share per Candidate, per Region 179 Table 5.6 Logistic Analysis of Voting Turnout in 2013 Chilean Presidential Election 182 Table 6.1 Citizens’ Pride in Their National Political System 193 Table 6.2 Citizens’ Perceptions of Their Country’s Level of Democracy 194 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Before I started the dissertation, my father advised me that it would be a long, often lonely, road to completion. I have reached the finish line courtesy of the gracious and unwavering support of those mentioned below. Without them, and others not mentioned, this project would never have been possible. I would like to start with my two amazing and always encouraging dissertation co-chairs and advisors, Russell Dalton and Diana Kapiszewski. Both pushed me to advance this project as far as intellectually possible. They each offered unique perspectives but both always had the same goal in mind—my interest and success as a scholar. Both provided countless hours of mentoring and support and I hope to do their services justice in the next few lines. Russell always brought a smile to my face with his many fascinating stories and collection of tales. I always enjoyed his optimism, his chats about college football, and the gracious hospitality he showed my parents when they visited on graduation weekend. He is a one of a kind mentor. Diana has been my advisor since day one in the program. I will always be indebted to her for the innumerable hours we spent in her office and via Skype developing parts of this dissertation. I always left our discussions and interactions feeling better about my research, my career choice, and, most importantly, myself. She is an amazing mentor, scholar, and above all, person. Anthony McGann has been a tremendous help in providing sophisticated feedback at all facets of my graduate school career. I relish the interactions with Tony and always appreciate his fantastic insight. Louis DeSipio provided several key directions for the dissertation. Louis is the most humble and accommodating person I have met in academia. His office door was always open and I will forever remember the chats in his office about our mutual travels to South America. Beyond my committee, several institutions on campus and off campus provided generous financial support. I would like to thank the Department of Political Science, the Center for the Study of Democracy, the School of Social Sciences, and the UC Pacific Rim Fellowship Committee for the funding to carry out the dissertation. Specific people in these institutions who made my life a great deal easier include Shani Brasier, Claudia Cheffs, Tomas Figueroa, and John Sommerhauser. My field research in Bolivia and Chile was made possible through the kind assistance of several people. Martin Mendoza-Botelho provided several contacts and logistical support for my time in La Paz. I will forever be grateful to Antonio and Ivonne who shared their lovely home in La Paz with me, and introduced me to a multitude of Paceños who showed me their wonderful city and country. Peter Siavelis, Taylor Boas, Kirk Hawkins, and Cristobal Kaltwasser were kind enough to share contacts in Chile. Cristobal shared his time and knowledge of Chilean politics at our wonderful meeting at Diego Portales University. Kirk has been a wonderful mentor as well, training me to score populist speeches and helping advance this project. Additional faculty members at UCI who helped me through graduate school include: Alison Brysk, vii Deborah Avant, Matthew Beckman, Wayne Sandholtz, Patrick Morgan, and Robert Duncan. Beyond political science faculty, I will forever be grateful for the help and assistance of De Gallow at the Center for Engaged Instruction. She pushed me to be a better instructor through the Pedagogical Fellows program, and kindly offered me a position as an Instructional Development Associate. At the Center, I will look back fondly at the memories I have made with Brenda, Christian, Danny, Edelina, Stef, and Iain. My graduate colleagues at UCI ensured that the path to completion was not one merely of solitude. The Ocean House crew—Josh Gellers, Eric Mosinger, Jason Vick—reminded me that life should be balanced. We spent several of our best years together, enjoying all that Long Beach offered. Other colleagues who ensured that I relaxed and relieved stress include: John Cuffe, Tom Le, Kelsey Norman, Stacey Liou, Ryan Sauchelli, Josh Malnight, Hannah Alarian, Graham Odell, Trevor Allen, Marcos Scauso, Katja Newman, Tanya Schwarz, Arturo, Sierra Powell, and Heather Wickramarachi. Mark Berlin, Tom Le, and Josh Gellers served as peer mentors who helped with job market materials and early drafts of the dissertation. Off campus, the many characters in our Orange County Cricket League always made me laugh and got the best out of my limited cricketing abilities. The frightening amount of hours I spent coding and analyzing data, writing, re-writing, and editing were made all the more pleasant thanks to the motivating sounds of Dr. Dre, the National, and Andrew Bird. Finally, and most of all, I would like to thank my amazing family. My parents, Edgar and Lynette, have sacrificed so much to make all of this possible.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Roland Benedikter
    Roland Benedikter · Katja Siepmann Editors Chile in Transition Prospects and Challenges for Latin America’s Forerunner of Development With a Foreword by Ned Strong, Harvard University, and a Preface by Larry Birns, Council on Hemispheric A airs, Washington, D.C. Chile in Transition Roland Benedikter • Katja Siepmann Editors Chile in Transition Prospects and Challenges for Latin America’s Forerunner of Development With a Foreword by Ned Strong, Harvard University, and a Preface by Larry Birns, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Washington, D.C. Editors Roland Benedikter Katja Siepmann University of California Opina Market Research Institute Santa Barbara , CA , USA Santiago , Chile This book is sustained by the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA), an independent think-tank on Latin America and inter-American relations in Washington, D.C. ISBN 978-3-319-17950-6 ISBN 978-3-319-17951-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-17951-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015937972 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
    [Show full text]
  • Labor Parlamentaria Mario Desbordes Jiménez
    Labor Parlamentaria Mario Desbordes Jiménez Legislatura número 367 Del 11 de marzo de 2019 al 10 de marzo de 2020 Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional de Chile - www.bcn.cl/laborparlamentaria - documento generado el 08-07-2021 NOTA EXPLICATIVA Esta Labor Parlamentaria ha sido construida por la Biblioteca del Congreso a partir de la información contenida en los Diarios de Sesiones de la Cámara de Diputados y del Senado, referidas a las participaciones de los legisladores, documentos, fundamentos, debates y votaciones que determinan las decisiones legislativas en cada etapa del proceso de formación de la ley. Junto a ello se entrega acceso a su labor fiscalizadora, de representación, de diplomacia parlamentaria y atribuciones propias según corresponda. Para efectos de facilitar la revisión de la documentación de este archivo, se incorpora un índice desde el cual se puede acceder directamente al texto completo de la intervención. Cabe considerar que la información contenida en este dossier se encuentra en continuo poblamiento, de manera tal que día a día se va actualizando la información que lo conforma. Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional de Chile - www.bcn.cl/laborparlamentaria - documento generado el 08-07-2021 ÍNDICE Labor Legislativa ........................................................................................................................ 3 Intervención ................................................................................................................................... 3 Mociones .....................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Appendix to “Social Inequalities, Identity
    World Inequality Lab – Working Paper N° 2021/11 Social Inequalities, Identity, and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, 1952-2019 Appendix Oscar Barrera Ana Leiva Clara Martínez-Toledano Álvaro Zúñiga-Cordero March 2021 Social Inequalities, Identity, and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, 1952-2019 Oscar Barrera Ana Leiva Clara Martínez-Toledano Álvaro Zúñiga-Cordero† Appendix This document supplements our working paper “Social Inequalities, Identity, and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, 1952-2019”. It contains all appendix tables and figures. † Oscar Barrera (World Inequality Lab): [email protected]; Ana Leiva (University of Oslo, UiO): [email protected]; Clara Martínez-Toledano (Imperial College London, World Inequality Lab): [email protected]; Álvaro Zúñiga-Cordero (Paris School of Economics, World Inequality Lab): [email protected]. We are grateful to Lavih Abraham, Ronald Alfaro- Redondo, María Julia Blanco, Francesco Bogliacino, Nicolás DvosKin, Ignacio Flores, Gustavo García, Amory Gethin, Kyong Mazaro and Thomas PiKetty for their useful advice. Figure AA1 - Vote for Peronists by income decile in Argentina 100% 90% D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995-99 2007-11 2015-19 Source: authors' computations using Argentinian post-electoral and political attitudes surveys. Note: the figure shows the share of votes received by the Peronist party by income decile. Figure AA2 - Vote for Peronists by income group in Argentina 90% 80% Bottom 50% Middle 40% Top 10% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995-99 2007-11 2015-19 Source: authors' computations using Argentinian post-electoral and political attitudes surveys.
    [Show full text]
  • Indigenous and Social Movement Political Parties in Ecuador and Bolivia, 1978-2000
    UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Democratizing Formal Politics: Indigenous and Social Movement Political Parties in Ecuador and Bolivia, 1978-2000 A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirement for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Jennifer Noelle Collins Committee in charge: Professor Paul Drake, Chair Professor Ann Craig Professor Arend Lijphart Professor Carlos Waisman Professor Leon Zamosc 2006 Copyright Jennifer Noelle Collins, 2006 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Jennifer Noelle Collins is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: ___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ Chair University of California, San Diego 2006 iii DEDICATION For my parents, John and Sheila Collins, who in innumerable ways made possible this journey. For my husband, Juan Giménez, who met and accompanied me along the way. And for my daughter, Fiona Maité Giménez-Collins, the beautiful gift bequeathed to us by the adventure that has been this dissertation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE.……………………..…………………………………...…...…iii DEDICATION .............................................................................................................iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ..............................................................................................v
    [Show full text]
  • Fiscalía De La Corte Penal Internacional
    FISCALÍA DE LA CORTE PENAL INTERNACIONAL A la Ilustre Fiscal de la Corte Penal Internacional EN CONFORMIDAD CON EL ART. 15 DEL ESTATUTO DE ROMA La Comisión Chilena de Derechos Humanos, Organización de la Sociedad Civil constituida jurídicamente como Corporación de Derecho privado, sin fines de lucro, representada legalmente por su Presidente, Carlos Margotta Trincado, la Fundación Internacional Baltasar Garzón – FIBGAR, representada legalmente por su Presidente, Baltasar Garzón, el Centro di ricerca ed elaborazione per la democrazia (CRED), representado legalmente por Fabio Marcelli y la Asociación Americana de Juristas (AAJ), Organización No Gubernamental con estatuto consultivo ante el ECOSOC y representación permanente ante la ONU de Nueva York y Ginebra, en la persona de su representante legal, Vanessa Ramos, vienen en solicitar a través de la presente Comunicación, a esta Ilustre Fiscalía de la Corte Penal Internacional, que inicie una investigación, formule acusación y requiera el inicio de un juicio conforme al Estatuto y Reglamentos de la Corte Penal Internacional por la responsabilidad que le cabe al Presidente de la República de Chile y demás autoridades civiles, políticas y policiales que se mencionarán y por los actos que se denuncian, ejecutados en el contexto de un ataque generalizado o sistemático contra una población civil y con conocimiento de dicho ataque, ocurridos simultáneamente en todo el territorio nacional de la República de Chile, desde el 6 de octubre de 2019 y hasta el día de hoy, los cuales consideramos constitutivos
    [Show full text]
  • 2021 Year Ahead
    2021 YEAR AHEAD Claudio Brocado Anthony Brocado January 29, 2021 1 2020 turned out to be quite unusual. What may the year ahead and beyond bring? As the year got started, the consensus was that a strong 2019 for equities would be followed by a positive first half, after which meaningful volatility would kick in due to the US presidential election. In the spirit of our prefer- ence for a contrarian stance, we had expected somewhat the opposite: some profit-taking in the first half of 2020, followed by a rally that would result in a positive balance at year-end. But in the way of the markets – which always tend to catch the largest number of participants off guard – we had what some would argue was one of the strangest years in recent memory. 2 2020 turned out to be a very eventful year. The global virus crisis (GVC) brought about by the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic was something no serious market observer had anticipated as 2020 got started. Volatility had been all but nonexistent early in what we call ‘the new 20s’, which had led us to expect the few remaining volatile asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies, to benefit from the search for more extreme price swings. We had expected volatilities across asset classes to show some convergence. The markets delivered, but not in the direction we had expected. Volatilities surged higher across many assets, with the CBOE volatility index (VIX) reaching some of the highest readings in many years. As it became clear that what was commonly called the novel coronavirus would bring about a pandemic as it spread to the remotest corners of the world at record speeds, the markets feared the worst.
    [Show full text]
  • Power, Coercion, Legitimacy and the Press in Pinochet's Chile a Dissertation Presented to the Faculty Of
    Writing the Opposition: Power, Coercion, Legitimacy and the Press in Pinochet's Chile A dissertation presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy Brad T. Eidahl December 2017 © 2017 Brad T. Eidahl. All Rights Reserved. 2 This dissertation titled Writing the Opposition: Power, Coercion, Legitimacy and the Press in Pinochet's Chile by BRAD T. EIDAHL has been approved for the Department of History and the College of Arts and Sciences by Patrick M. Barr-Melej Professor of History Robert Frank Dean, College of Arts and Sciences 3 ABSTRACT EIDAHL, BRAD T., Ph.D., December 2017, History Writing the Opposition: Power, Coercion, Legitimacy and the Press in Pinochet's Chile Director of Dissertation: Patrick M. Barr-Melej This dissertation examines the struggle between Chile’s opposition press and the dictatorial regime of Augusto Pinochet Ugarte (1973-1990). It argues that due to Chile’s tradition of a pluralistic press and other factors, and in bids to strengthen the regime’s legitimacy, Pinochet and his top officials periodically demonstrated considerable flexibility in terms of the opposition media’s ability to publish and distribute its products. However, the regime, when sensing that its grip on power was slipping, reverted to repressive measures in its dealings with opposition-media outlets. Meanwhile, opposition journalists challenged the very legitimacy Pinochet sought and further widened the scope of acceptable opposition under difficult circumstances. Ultimately, such resistance contributed to Pinochet’s defeat in the 1988 plebiscite, initiating the return of democracy.
    [Show full text]
  • ESS9 Appendix A3 Political Parties Ed
    APPENDIX A3 POLITICAL PARTIES, ESS9 - 2018 ed. 3.0 Austria 2 Belgium 4 Bulgaria 7 Croatia 8 Cyprus 10 Czechia 12 Denmark 14 Estonia 15 Finland 17 France 19 Germany 20 Hungary 21 Iceland 23 Ireland 25 Italy 26 Latvia 28 Lithuania 31 Montenegro 34 Netherlands 36 Norway 38 Poland 40 Portugal 44 Serbia 47 Slovakia 52 Slovenia 53 Spain 54 Sweden 57 Switzerland 58 United Kingdom 61 Version Notes, ESS9 Appendix A3 POLITICAL PARTIES ESS9 edition 3.0 (published 10.12.20): Changes from previous edition: Additional countries: Denmark, Iceland. ESS9 edition 2.0 (published 15.06.20): Changes from previous edition: Additional countries: Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden. Austria 1. Political parties Language used in data file: German Year of last election: 2017 Official party names, English 1. Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ) - Social Democratic Party of Austria - 26.9 % names/translation, and size in last 2. Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP) - Austrian People's Party - 31.5 % election: 3. Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) - Freedom Party of Austria - 26.0 % 4. Liste Peter Pilz (PILZ) - PILZ - 4.4 % 5. Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative (Grüne) - The Greens – The Green Alternative - 3.8 % 6. Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (KPÖ) - Communist Party of Austria - 0.8 % 7. NEOS – Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (NEOS) - NEOS – The New Austria and Liberal Forum - 5.3 % 8. G!LT - Verein zur Förderung der Offenen Demokratie (GILT) - My Vote Counts! - 1.0 % Description of political parties listed 1. The Social Democratic Party (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs, or SPÖ) is a social above democratic/center-left political party that was founded in 1888 as the Social Democratic Worker's Party (Sozialdemokratische Arbeiterpartei, or SDAP), when Victor Adler managed to unite the various opposing factions.
    [Show full text]
  • The Electoral Geography of European Radical Left Parties Since 1990
    ‘Red Belts’ anywhere? The electoral geography of European radical left parties since 1990 Petar Nikolaev Bankov, BA, MSc Submitted in the fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Social and Political Sciences College of Social Sciences University of Glasgow January 2020 Abstract European radical left parties (RLPs) are on the rise across Europe. Since 1990 they became an integral part of the party systems across the continent and enjoy an increased level of government participation and policy clout. The main source for this improved position is their increasing electoral support in the past three decades, underpinned by a diversity of electoral geographies. Understood as the patterns of territorial distribution of electoral support across electoral units, the electoral geographies are important, as they indicate the effects of the socio-economic and political changes in Europe on these parties. This thesis studies the sources of the electoral geographies of European RLPs since 1990. The existing literature on these parties highlighted the importance of their electoral geographies for understanding their electoral and governmental experiences. Yet, to this date, it lacks systematic research on these territorial distributions of electoral support in their own right. Such research is important also for the general literature on the spatial distribution of electoral performance. In particular, these works paid limited attention to the relevance of their theories for individual political parties, as they
    [Show full text]
  • The Rise of Alternative Presidential Candidates in Chile = El Auge De
    VOLUME 9, ISSUE 2 2020 81 109 DOI 23628 ISSN: 1852-9003 - eISSN: 2660-700X DOI: https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.23628 THE RISE OF ALTERNATIVE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES IN CHILE, 2009-2017 El auge de candidatos presidenciales alternativos en Chile, 2009-2017 O aumento de candidatos presidenciais alternativos no Chile, 2009-2017 Lucas PERELLÓ a and Patricio NAVIA b a The New School. New York, US. Email: [email protected]. b New York University. New York, US. Email: [email protected]. Submission: 2020-07-12 Accepted: 2020-10-07 First View: 2020-11-13 Publication: 2020-11-30 Keywords: Abstract Alternative This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candi- presidential dates –those from outside the two dominant coalitions– in Chile from 2009 candidates; to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of partisanship; voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypoth- economic vote; eses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of socio-demographic ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, shifts; Chile and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more edu- cated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety –viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financial prospects– comprise this subgroup. Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca / CC BY-NC-ND RLOP.
    [Show full text]
  • Review of European and National Election Results Update: September 2019
    REVIEW OF EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 2019 A Public Opinion Monitoring Publication REVIEW OF EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 2019 Directorate-General for Communication Public Opinion Monitoring Unit May 2019 - PE 640.149 IMPRESSUM AUTHORS Philipp SCHULMEISTER, Head of Unit (Editor) Alice CHIESA, Marc FRIEDLI, Dimitra TSOULOU MALAKOUDI, Matthias BÜTTNER Special thanks to EP Liaison Offices and Members’ Administration Unit PRODUCTION Katarzyna ONISZK Manuscript completed in September 2019 Brussels, © European Union, 2019 Cover photo: © Andrey Kuzmin, Shutterstock.com ABOUT THE PUBLISHER This paper has been drawn up by the Public Opinion Monitoring Unit within the Directorate–General for Communication (DG COMM) of the European Parliament. To contact the Public Opinion Monitoring Unit please write to: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSION Original: EN DISCLAIMER This document is prepared for, and primarily addressed to, the Members and staff of the European Parliament to assist them in their parliamentary work. The content of the document is the sole responsibility of its author(s) and any opinions expressed herein should not be taken to represent an official position of the Parliament. TABLE OF CONTENTS EDITORIAL 1 1. COMPOSITION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT 5 DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS OVERVIEW 1979 - 2019 6 COMPOSITION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT LAST UPDATE (31/07/2019) 7 CONSTITUTIVE SESSION (02/07/2019) AND OUTGOING EP SINCE 1979 8 PROPORTION OF WOMEN AND MEN PROPORTION - LAST UPDATE 02/07/2019 28 PROPORTIONS IN POLITICAL GROUPS - LAST UPDATE 02/07/2019 29 PROPORTION OF WOMEN IN POLITICAL GROUPS - SINCE 1979 30 2. NUMBER OF NATIONAL PARTIES IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT CONSTITUTIVE SESSION 31 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Claude Reyes V. Chile
    Order of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights Case of Claude-Reyes et al. v. Chile Judgment of September 19, 2006 (Merits, Reparations and Costs) In the Case of Claude Reyes et al., the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (hereinafter “the Inter-American Court” or “the Court”), composed of the following judges:* Sergio García Ramírez, President Alirio Abreu Burelli, Vice President Antônio A. Cançado Trindade, Judge Cecilia Medina Quiroga, Judge Manuel E. Ventura Robles, Judge, and Diego García-Sayán, Judge; also present, Pablo Saavedra Alessandri, Secretary, and Emilia Segares Rodríguez, Deputy Secretary pursuant to Articles 62(3) and 63(1) of the American Convention on Human Rights (hereinafter “the American Convention” or “the Convention”) and Articles 29, 31, 56 and 58 of the Rules of Procedure of the Court (hereinafter “the Rules of Procedure”), delivers this judgment. I INTRODUCTION OF THE CASE 1. On July 8, 2005, in accordance with the provisions of Articles 50 and 61 of the American Convention, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (hereinafter “the Commission” or “the Inter-American Commission”) lodged before the Court an application against the State of Chile (hereinafter “the State” or “Chile”). This application originated from petition No. 12,108, received by the Secretariat of the Commission on December 17, 1998. * Judge Oliver Jackman did not take part in the deliberation and signature of this judgment, because he advised that, due to circumstances beyond his control, he would be unable to participate in the seventy-second regular session of the Court. -2- 2. The Commission submitted the application for the Court to declare that the State was responsible for the violation of the rights embodied in Articles 13 (Freedom of Thought and Expression) and 25 (Right to Judicial Protection) of the American Convention, in relation to the obligations established in Articles 1(1) (Obligation to Respect Rights) and 2 (Domestic Legal Effects) thereof, to the detriment of Marcel Claude Reyes, Sebastián Cox Urrejola and Arturo Longton Guerrero.
    [Show full text]