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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE The Prevalence of Populism in South America: Crafting Credible and Competitive Candidates DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Political Science by Robert Nyenhuis Dissertation Committee: Professor Russell Dalton, Co-Chair Associate Professor Diana Kapiszewski, Co-Chair Professor Louis Desipio Professor Anthony McGann 2016 © 2016 Robert Nyenhuis DEDICATION To my amazing parents and loving family around the world who always supported and encouraged me. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES iv LIST OF TABLES v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vii CURRICULUM VITAE ix ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION xi CHAPTER 1: The Prevalence of Populism in South America 1 CHAPTER 2: Operationalizing Populism, Explaining Citizens’ Voting Behavior, and Scoring Populist Candidates 24 CHAPTER 3: Quantitative Analysis of Citizens Voting for Populist Candidates 70 Appendix A: Additional Statistical Models 99 CHAPTER 4: The Political Longevity of Evo Morales and MAS 103 Appendix B: Additional Statistical Models for Bolivia 146 CHAPTER 5: The Political Inroads of Outsider Populists in Chile 151 Appendix C: Additional Statistical Models for Chile 182 CHAPTER 6: The Prevalence of Populism in South America, Lessons for Latin America 183 and Global Politics REFERENCES (OR BIBLIOGRAPHY) 201 iii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 2.1 Visual Illustration of My Theory 95 Figure 3.1 Summary Depicting Results of Hypothesis Testing 105 Figure 4.1 Departments Won by Morales in the Presidential Elections, National 106 Vote Share in Parentheses Figure 4.2 The Overlap of Morales’ Populist Appeals, His Personal Characteristics 107 and Characteristics of the Electorate, 2003-2006 Figure 4.3 The Overlap of Morales’ Populist Appeals, His Personal Characteristics 108 and Characteristics of the Electorate, 2003-2006 Figure 4.4 The Causal Story of Citizens’ Voting for Morales 126 Figure 5.1 The Overlap of Parisi’s Populist Appeals, His Personal Characteristics 154 and Characteristics of the Electorate, 2013 Figure 5.2 Chilean Electoral Polling Data 156 Figure 5.3 Median Responses for Each Candidate’s Ideological Placement, Placed 170 by Survey Respondents iv LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.1 My Operationalization of Populism 6 Table 1.2 Populist Aggregate Score, by Country and Presidential Election 8 Table 1.3 Country Scores on the Independent Variables 10 Table 2.1 Chronology of Definitions of Populism 26 Table 2.2 My Operationalization of Populism as a Political Style 35 Table 3.1 My Operationalization of Populism as a Political Style 72 Table 3.2 Populist Candidates by Score and Vote Share 74 Table 3.3 Hypotheses and Expected Findings 79 Table 3.4 Logistic Analysis of Support for Populist Presidential Candidates 84 Using Data from Surveys Conducted Prior to Election (Future voting) Table 3.5 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Populists as Predictors 88 Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on Logistic Regression Using Data from Surveys Conducted Prior to Election (future voting) Table 3.6 Logistic Analysis of Support for Populist Presidential Candidates 91 Using Data from Surveys Conducted After the Election (Past voting) Table 3.7 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Populists as Variables 93 Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on Past Voting for Non Incumbents Model Table 3.8 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Populists as Predictors 99 Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on Logistic Regression Using Data from Surveys Conducted Prior to Election (future voting) Table 3.9 Logistic Analysis of Support for Populist Presidential Candidates 100 Using Data from Surveys Fielded After the Election (Past voting) v Table 4.1 Vote Share for Evo Morales in Presidential Elections, 2005-2014, 105 by Department Table 4.2 Logistic Analysis of Voting Intention for Evo Morales, 2006-2014 105 Table 4.3 Change in Predicted Probabilities of Voting for Evo Morales as 120 Variables Change from their Minimum to their Maximum, Based on the Logistic Regressions above Table 4.4 Logistic Analysis of Voting Intention for Evo Morales, 2008-2014 146 Table 4.5 Logistic Analysis of Citizen Inclination to Protest 147 Table 4.6 Correlates of 2014 Support for the Movement towards Socialism 148 (MAS) Party Table 4.7 Logistic Analysis of Support for Evo Morales in 2014 148 Table 5.1 2013 Chilean Presidential Election, First Round Vote Share, 156 by Candidate Table 5.2 Logistic Analysis of Voting Turnout in 2013 Chilean Presidential Election 164 Table 5.3 Multinomial Logistic Analysis of Voting Intention 170 [Franco Parisi as baseline], 2013 Chilean presidential election Table 5.4 Most Pressing Concerns among Chilean Citizens 174 Table 5.5 Voted Share per Candidate, per Region 179 Table 5.6 Logistic Analysis of Voting Turnout in 2013 Chilean Presidential Election 182 Table 6.1 Citizens’ Pride in Their National Political System 193 Table 6.2 Citizens’ Perceptions of Their Country’s Level of Democracy 194 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Before I started the dissertation, my father advised me that it would be a long, often lonely, road to completion. I have reached the finish line courtesy of the gracious and unwavering support of those mentioned below. Without them, and others not mentioned, this project would never have been possible. I would like to start with my two amazing and always encouraging dissertation co-chairs and advisors, Russell Dalton and Diana Kapiszewski. Both pushed me to advance this project as far as intellectually possible. They each offered unique perspectives but both always had the same goal in mind—my interest and success as a scholar. Both provided countless hours of mentoring and support and I hope to do their services justice in the next few lines. Russell always brought a smile to my face with his many fascinating stories and collection of tales. I always enjoyed his optimism, his chats about college football, and the gracious hospitality he showed my parents when they visited on graduation weekend. He is a one of a kind mentor. Diana has been my advisor since day one in the program. I will always be indebted to her for the innumerable hours we spent in her office and via Skype developing parts of this dissertation. I always left our discussions and interactions feeling better about my research, my career choice, and, most importantly, myself. She is an amazing mentor, scholar, and above all, person. Anthony McGann has been a tremendous help in providing sophisticated feedback at all facets of my graduate school career. I relish the interactions with Tony and always appreciate his fantastic insight. Louis DeSipio provided several key directions for the dissertation. Louis is the most humble and accommodating person I have met in academia. His office door was always open and I will forever remember the chats in his office about our mutual travels to South America. Beyond my committee, several institutions on campus and off campus provided generous financial support. I would like to thank the Department of Political Science, the Center for the Study of Democracy, the School of Social Sciences, and the UC Pacific Rim Fellowship Committee for the funding to carry out the dissertation. Specific people in these institutions who made my life a great deal easier include Shani Brasier, Claudia Cheffs, Tomas Figueroa, and John Sommerhauser. My field research in Bolivia and Chile was made possible through the kind assistance of several people. Martin Mendoza-Botelho provided several contacts and logistical support for my time in La Paz. I will forever be grateful to Antonio and Ivonne who shared their lovely home in La Paz with me, and introduced me to a multitude of Paceños who showed me their wonderful city and country. Peter Siavelis, Taylor Boas, Kirk Hawkins, and Cristobal Kaltwasser were kind enough to share contacts in Chile. Cristobal shared his time and knowledge of Chilean politics at our wonderful meeting at Diego Portales University. Kirk has been a wonderful mentor as well, training me to score populist speeches and helping advance this project. Additional faculty members at UCI who helped me through graduate school include: Alison Brysk, vii Deborah Avant, Matthew Beckman, Wayne Sandholtz, Patrick Morgan, and Robert Duncan. Beyond political science faculty, I will forever be grateful for the help and assistance of De Gallow at the Center for Engaged Instruction. She pushed me to be a better instructor through the Pedagogical Fellows program, and kindly offered me a position as an Instructional Development Associate. At the Center, I will look back fondly at the memories I have made with Brenda, Christian, Danny, Edelina, Stef, and Iain. My graduate colleagues at UCI ensured that the path to completion was not one merely of solitude. The Ocean House crew—Josh Gellers, Eric Mosinger, Jason Vick—reminded me that life should be balanced. We spent several of our best years together, enjoying all that Long Beach offered. Other colleagues who ensured that I relaxed and relieved stress include: John Cuffe, Tom Le, Kelsey Norman, Stacey Liou, Ryan Sauchelli, Josh Malnight, Hannah Alarian, Graham Odell, Trevor Allen, Marcos Scauso, Katja Newman, Tanya Schwarz, Arturo, Sierra Powell, and Heather Wickramarachi. Mark Berlin, Tom Le, and Josh Gellers served as peer mentors who helped with job market materials and early drafts of the dissertation. Off campus, the many characters in our Orange County Cricket League always made me laugh and got the best out of my limited cricketing abilities. The frightening amount of hours I spent coding and analyzing data, writing, re-writing, and editing were made all the more pleasant thanks to the motivating sounds of Dr. Dre, the National, and Andrew Bird. Finally, and most of all, I would like to thank my amazing family. My parents, Edgar and Lynette, have sacrificed so much to make all of this possible.
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