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Home , Andrew Scheer, Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh, Justin Trudeau, The Globe and Mail

Preferred PM: Trudeau 33, Scheer 30, Unsure 18, Singh 9, May 8, Blanchet 2, Bernier 1

Nightly Tracking, three day rolling average ending September 16, 2019 Released September 17, 2019

NANOS Scheer closes gap on  preferred PM measure with Trudeau. Scheer’s positive trajectory driven by picking up those who are undecided. Nik Nanos  © NANOS RESEARCH NANOS ©

NANOS #ELXN43 2 PREFERRED PRIMEPREFERRED MINISTER Subscribe www.nanos.co/method Methodology: Website: 234- (613) : Nanos Nik Contact: 20. of out times 19 points, is respondents of 1,200a survey for of error margin The dropped. day oldest the and added is interviewing of day new a tracking the To update interviews. rolling sample comprised of1,200 a three based onfigures are tracking daily The interviewed. eligible voters are group ofnew 400 a evening Each agents. live using campaign the throughout Research Nanos by nightly conducted is survey telephone random dual national A breakdowns. breakdowns. regional and demographic detailed to access get to www.nanos.co to the data Nanos portals - ± frame ( frame 2.8 percentage 4666 x 237 x 4666 [email protected] land+cell - day day ) the tracking weekly August,for Nightly 2019.election tracking started on September 11 Source: LEADERS] PARTY [ROTATE Minister? Prime for preferences Question: 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 5% 2019-08-02 2% 4% 7% 24% 34% 22% 9% CTV, Globe, Nanos nightly election tracking ending September 16 September ending tracking election nightly Nanos Globe, CTV, Of the current federal political political leaders, twoplease local the yourrank top currentfederal currentcouldpartyOf you Unsure (Bloc) Blanchet (Liberal) Trudeau Justin 2019-08-09 2019-08-16 (Green) May Elizabeth (Conservative) 2019-08-23 NANOS #ELXN43 NANOS 2019-08-30 [First ranked response] ranked [First (People's) Bernier Maxime Jagmeet(NDP) Singh 2019-09-06 th , 2019. The data below represents represents below data The 2019. , 2019-09-13 th , 2019. , 2019. 1% 2% 8% 9% 18% 30% 33% 3

© NANOS RESEARCH PREFERRED PRIMEPREFERRED MINISTER Subscribe www.nanos.co/method Methodology: Website: 234- (613) Ottawa: Nanos Nik Contact: 20. of out times 19 points, is respondents of 1,200a survey for of error margin The dropped. day oldest the and added is interviewing of day new a tracking the To update interviews. rolling sample comprised of1,200 a three based onfigures are tracking daily The interviewed. eligible voters are group ofnew 400 a evening Each agents. live using campaign the throughout Research Nanos by nightly conducted is survey telephone random dual national A breakdowns. breakdowns. regional and demographic detailed to access get to www.nanos.co to the data Nanos portals - ± frame ( frame 2.8 percentage 4666 x 237 x 4666 [email protected] land+cell - day day ) the tracking weekly August,for Nightly 2019.election tracking started on September 11 Source: LEADERS] PARTY [ROTATE Minister? Prime for preferences Question: each party in the House of Commons at Dissolution. at Commons of House the in party each for seats of number onthe based are table the in listed leaders party federal of Order *Note: Preferred PM* CTV, Globe, Nanos nightly election tracking ending September 15 September ending tracking election nightly Nanos Globe, CTV, Of the current federal political political leaders, twoplease local the yourrank top currentfederal currentcouldpartyOf you Unsure Bernier May Blanchet Trudeau Scheer Singh Leader 2019-09-16 18.1% 32.6% 29.9% 1.2% 7.6% 1.7% 8.9% 2019-09-15 17.8% 33.5% 27.7% 1.9% 7.6% 2.4% 9.1% NANOS #ELXN43 NANOS 4 Weeks 4 Weeks 24.6% 30.9% 25.1% 2.6% 8.7% 1.4% 6.7% Ago [First ranked response] ranked [First Aug 2) Aug 25.1% 34.5% 29.9% (Since (Since 2.8% 9.2% 3.8% 9.2% High High (Since Aug 2) Aug (Since 17.8% 30.9% 22.7% th 1.2% 7.6% 1.3% 6.7% Low Low , 2019. The data below represents represents below data The 2019. , th , 2019. , 2019. 4

© NANOS RESEARCH SURVEY METHODOLOGY rounding may up not add to to due reported 100 Percentages . by Statistics administered Census Canadian from 2016 the to data according age by gender. by weightedand may be data The geographically stratified is sample respondent The 20. of out times added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is is of for margin error of respondents The a 1,200 day survey dropped. oldest and the added three a on based are figures tracking daily The interviewed. are voters eligible 400 of group new a evening Each day period. a three over campaign the throughout Research Nanos by conducted is 1,200 of survey telephone random national A . . - day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is is interviewing of day new a tracking Tothe update interviews. 1,200 of comprised sample rolling day NANOS #ELXN43 NANOS ± 2.8 2.8 19 points, percentage 5

© NANOS RESEARCH TECHNICAL NOTE Mode of Survey of Mode Number of Number Fieldwork/Validation (Other) Demographics (Captured) Demographics Sampling Margin Sample of Type Sample of Source Standards of Language Dates Field Time ofCalls Sample Size Sample Final and Population Research sponsor Element of Error of Method Base Method Calls Survey - (land frame RDD dual Tracking; Live CATI CATI Live income education, gender, Age, Six digit postal code was older. and years 18 Women; and Men Columbia; British Prairies, , , Canada, Atlantic Dialed) - land both included sample The survey. ± Probability Dynata Description and Disclosure Requirements. Requirements. Disclosure and Standards Research Opinion Public CRIC the including Standards CRIC all with complies fully research this that confirms and (CRIC) Council Insights Research of a is Canadian the member Research Nanos French. and English both in conducted was survey The 2019. 16, 14toSeptember respondent. Individuals Maximumfiveofcall backs. group of group a and new is dropped of 400 interviews group the week oldest each three a into compiled oversample. weekend closing night; a 400 voters individuals; selected Randomly 1,200 CTV/Globe https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ 2.8 p ercentage points, 19 of19 20. outtimes points, ercentage across Canada. 400 interviews with live supervisionto validate work. were called between 6:30 between called were and Mail/Nanos Research Mail/Nanos and interviews is added. is interviews day day used to validate geography. geography. validate to used rolling average of 1,200 interviews, where where of 1,200 interviews, average rolling and cell and and cell and - three night rolling average of of average rolling night three 9:30pm local time for the time for 9:30pm local - - lines RDD (Random RDD lines lines) random telephone random The interviews are are interviews The Digit Rate Estimated Response Question Order Question Stratification Contact Collection Supplier Research/Data Wording Question Content Question of Weighting Element Demographics Excluded Screening Data NANOS #ELXN43 NANOS 7 to allow for a minimumregional sample. Smaller Canada. of to be representative stratified is geographically sample By Description or questions. or information more for Research Nanos Contact Nanos Research individuals. to asked in question The preferences. ballot and of concern issues national unprompted about were modules module was This question. PM preferred of the ahead is asked ballot the and questions consideration open- An lines Individuals data. of the integrity the ensure to survey the administering to prior party political a or media in the industry, advertising in the industry, research respondents potential ensured Screening weighting distribution a ensure to stratified geographically is sample the and (2016) information The Email: [email protected]. Email: Telephone:(613) 234- www.nanos.co percent, consistent with with industry consistent percent, age and gender using the latest Census information (2016) the and (2016) information Census the latest using age gender and results were weighted b weighted were results could not participate. not could areas such as Atlanticwere Canada marginally oversampled ended national issue of concern question, party vote vote party question, concern of issue national ended disclosure younger than 18 years old; individuals without without individuals old; years 18 than younger the preceding report was written exactly as they were were as they exactly was written report preceding the three of a nightly omnibus survey. The preceding preceding The survey. omnibus a of nightly three across all regions of Canada. See tables for for full See tables of Canada. regions all across 4666 ext. 237 4666 ext. y age and gender using the latest Census Census latest the using gender and age norms. did not work in the market market the in work not did or with any concerns concerns any or with land or cell 6

© NANOS RESEARCH In addition to this, paid subscribers have access to the following Nanos Data Portals: Data Nanos following to the access have subscribers paid to this, In addition • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • now Subscribe regional, and demographic trend lines to the following dashboards in the political portal: political the in dashboards following to the lines trend demographic and regional, NANOS DATA NANOS PORTALS The Mood of Canada Annual Tracking Survey (2007 to present) (2007 Tracking Survey Annual of Mood Canada The to present) (2015 Map Policy Public Annual Nanos The Canada to present) (2015 TrackingCanada Issue Weekly to present) (2008 Tracking Confidence Consumer Canadian Weekly PortalWeekly with Federal Political Data to (2014 present) to present) 2019 (August of Party Canada Voting for People's the Consider Nightly to present) 2019 (August Voting for Bloc Québécois the Consider Nightly to present) 2019 (August of Voting for Canada Party Green the Consider Nightly to 2019 present) (August Voting for NDP the of Canada Consider Nightly to present) 2019 (August of Party Canada Voting for Conservative the Consider Nightly to present) 2019 (August of Canada Party Voting for Liberal the Consider Nightly to 2019 present) (August Power TrackingParty Index Canada Nightly to 2019 present) (August PreferredTracking PM Canada Nightly Tracking to 2019 (August Undecided present) Nightly Tracking Federal 2019to Election (August 2019 Canadian present) Nightly - US Relations Annual Tracking (2005 to Trackingpresent) (2005 Annual Relations US for just $4 a month ($48 for a 12 month subscription) to have unlimited access including national, national, including access unlimited have to subscription) month 12 a for ($48 month a $4 for just NANOS #ELXN43 NANOS 7

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© NANOS RESEARCH Region Gender Age

Tracking Sept 14 to 16/19 Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Male Female 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 plus First ranked Preferred Prime Total Unwgt N 1225 122 303 367 250 183 629 596 163 192 178 242 450 Minister Wgt N 1200 80 280 460 221 159 581 619 237 196 226 225 315 % 32.6 Andrew Scheer % 29.9 % 8.9 Yves-François Blanchet % 1.7 Available to Subscribers Only Elizabeth May % 7.6 Maxime Bernier % 1.2 Unsure % 18.1