Public Perceptions of Pipeline Development in Canada
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University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies Master of Public Policy Capstone Projects 2018-09-11 Public Perceptions of Pipeline Development in Canada McLean, Jade McLean, J. (2018). Public Perceptions of Pipeline Development in Canada (Unpublished master's project). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. http://hdl.handle.net/1880/109314 master thesis Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY CAPSTONE PROJECT Public Perceptions of Pipeline Development in Canada Submitted by: Jade McLean Approved by Supervisor: Dr. Jennifer Winter Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of PPOL 623 and completion of the requirements for the Master of Public Policy degree Acknowledgements I would like to thank my capstone supervisor, Dr. Jennifer Winter, for sharing her time, guidance, and wealth of knowledge throughout the process of this capstone project. Her expertise in energy and the environment, and critical feedback, has been invaluable to the completion of this project. [ii] Table of Contents Capstone Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ iv Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Literature Review ............................................................................................................................ 4 The Advocacy Coalition Framework ............................................................................................ 4 Framing Pipelines ........................................................................................................................ 6 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 9 The History of Pipeline Politics in Canada .................................................................................... 10 Data Analysis and Results ............................................................................................................. 14 Pipeline Framing under the Harper Government ..................................................................... 17 Policy Implications and Public Perceptions ............................................................................... 25 Pipeline Framing under the Trudeau Liberals ........................................................................... 28 Policy Implications and Public Perceptions ............................................................................... 34 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 38 References .................................................................................................................................... 40 Appendix A: Sentiment analysis of ‘pipeline(s)’ mentions (2007-2017) ...................................... 47 Appendix B: Mentions of major pipeline projects during the debates in the House of Commons (2007-2017) ................................................................................................................................... 48 Appendix C: Twenty most frequent words from the NDP and Green Party election platforms (2008, 2011, and 2015) ................................................................................................................. 49 [iii] Capstone Executive Summary In the last decade, pipelines in Canada have received increasing political attention and decreasing public support. In fact, pipelines have emerged as one of the country’s most contentious political debates, with extensive political and media attention devoted to the Northern Gateway Pipeline, Keystone XL Pipeline, the Energy East Pipeline, and the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project, in recent years. Accordingly, this has resulted in considerable economic, social, and political consequences for all Canadians and an increasingly complex regulatory environment for pipeline developers in Canada. A number of factors can be attributed to these discrepancies in public support for pipelines, such as changing economic conditions following the 2014 fall in global oil prices. However, this study argues that the decline in public support for pipelines is largely due to the ways in which pipelines are framed to the public by dominant political actors in Canada. This study examines the ways in which political actors in Canada use political framing as a way to sway public opinion and the choices of policymakers regarding pipelines. Analyses of various political party debate in the House of Commons, electoral platforms, and public [iv] speeches were performed in order to analyze the use of both pro- and anti-pipeline framing by the Conservative Party, Liberal Party, New Democratic Party, and the Green Party of Canada. Three dominant frames were identified, including economic framing (jobs and economic prosperity), environmental framing (the contribution of oil sands development to climate change and other environmental risks), and social framing (impact of pipeline development on Indigenous peoples and local communities). Additionally, data was collected from 24 public opinion polls between 2007 and 2017 to allow for an in-depth understanding of evolving public attitudes towards pipelines in Canada. These polls assessed respondent’s views of pipeline and oil development, climate change, the environment, and attitudes towards former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The analysis reveals three key findings: first, over the last decade, discussion surrounding pipeline development among political parties in Canada has increased drastically. In 2007, the term ‘pipeline(s)’ was mentioned 58 times during debates in the House of Commons. In 2017, this number had jumped to 1,278 mentions. Second, pipelines were framed as a tradeoff between the economy and the environment throughout the decade. For example, the dominant approach of the Conservative Party was to discuss pipelines using economic frames. This was ultimately perceived by the public as policy lacking critical environmental considerations, such as action on climate change. On the contrary, the Liberal Party employed both environmental frames and economic frames in their discussion of pipelines. Though this elicited a more favourable response from Canadians, it also caused them to question the Party’s ability to effectively manage the nation’s economic interests. Third, political rhetoric is significant in its ability to sway public perceptions of policy decisions in [v] Canada. The ability of government policy decisions to reflect the will of the public is critical for successful policy implementation. This is highlighted by the inability of the Conservative Party to garner significant political and pubic buy-in for pipeline development during their tenure (2006-2015). This is largely due to its inability to align their policies and rhetoric in accordance with dominant public desires at the time. As pipelines continue to be a dominant policy issue in Canada, this study aims to provide an understanding to the relationship between public opinion and policy development, and how they interact to shape public perceptions of energy development in Canada. [vi] Introduction The movement of petroleum products in Canada has received enormous public and media attention throughout the past decade. Today, 70 percent of Canadians believe that pipelines are an integral component of the wellbeing of the economy, and a majority also report confidence in the safety, oversight, and operations of pipeline developers (Anderson & Coletto, 2017).1 However, public and political support regarding pipeline development in Canada has gone through significant shifts. As of 2017, only 44 percent of Canadians report positive support for the expansion of pipelines, a 14-percentage point drop from 2014 estimates (Anderson & Coletto, 2017). The findings of this study show that declining public support for pipelines has been in part driven by political framing techniques employed by political actors across various media channels within Canada, such as electoral platforms and public speeches. Pipelines are often framed to be of environmental concerns, such as increasing global contributions to greenhouse gas emissions; public safety concerns, such as oil spills; and human rights concerns, such as impacts to Indigenous peoples (Lawlor & Gravelle, 2018). Following the 2015 Paris Accord, increased public concern over climate change also motivated many political actors to campaign against increased fossil fuel development and for an increased use of renewable energy technologies. 1 Survey respondents were asked if they ‘strongly agree,’ ‘agree,’ ‘disagree,’ ‘strongly disagree,’ or ‘unsure,’ to the following statements: ‘pipelines play an essential role in delivering the energy we used every day,’ ‘pipelines play an essential role in the economy of Canada,’ ‘pipelines deliver a huge amount of energy across Canada with few incidents,’ ‘Canadian pipeline companies put a lot of effort into ensuring safe operation,’ and ‘pipelines are subject to rigorous oversight by governments in Canada.’ 1 | P a g e Political controversy regarding the future of pipeline development in Canada has considerable economic, social, and political implications. From an economic standpoint, continuing