3

From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Campaign 2015 elcome to our special issue the Liberals were considered Canada’s On social policy, it’s clear that the on Campaign 2015. The Natural Governing Party. For nearly a Conservatives have played for home W election may not be until decade, Harper and the Conservatives ice advantage in putting out their October 19, but the campaign has al- have replaced them in government. family and child care benefits pro- ready begun. One of the unintended But now in Justin Trudeau, they write, grams nearly a year ahead of the elec- consequences of a fixed election date, “the Liberals have a leader with the tion. Spouses with children will be coming out of a majority House, is a most identifiable name in Canadian able to do income splitting up to a permanent campaign. politics, and even his severest crit- ceiling of $2,000, and the Universal Child Care Benefit will be increased In this context, the parties can spend ics will acknowledge that Trudeau is from $100 to $160 per month. The as much as they want on their leaders’ a tremendous retail politician with a first seven months’ increase—$420 for tours, and on ad buys, until the writ sunny personality.” each child under the age of six—will is dropped five weeks before the vote. be deposited in voters’ bank accounts Not to mention earned media, actual- hen we look at four policy in July, just weeks before the election ly free media, on outlets such as You- boxes that might well frame writ is dropped. Tube. Only when the election is called T the ballot question—the econ- do campaign spending limits kick in. omy, foreign affairs, the environment Geoff Norquay provides a short history and social policy, notably child care of child care policy in Canada, going It all comes down to a struggle for and family benefits. BMO Financial back to the 1980s. Minister of Social control of the agenda, to the message Group Chief Economist Douglas Porter Development Candice Bergen, herself and the messenger. provides an overview of the Canadian a mother of three children, offers a Andrew MacDougall, now a senior economy and fiscal frameworks, and spirited defence of the government’s consultant at MSLGROUP in London, in spite of plunging oil prices, finds the family policy, while Opposition Leader is a former communications direc- fundamentals in pretty good shape. Tom Mulcair explains the NDP’s pro- tor for Prime Minister Stephen Harp- Foreign policy isn’t usually a factor posal for $15 a day national daycare. er. MacDougall knows of which he in Canadian election campaigns, but Two important regions, Quebec and writes, and says the struggle will frame 2015 may prove to be an exception. the Greater Toronto Area, tell us a lot the ballot question. As prime minister, writes Jeremy Kins- about what to look for in the cam- Brad Lavigne was communications man, “Harper enjoys an Airbus-borne paign. Bernard St-Laurent tells us why director for Jack Layton in the NDP’s platform with on-board media chan- Quebec is different, and Patrick Gos- successful 2011 campaign and later neling stories that spokesmen script,” sage reflects on lessons of the Toronto Layton’s principal secretary when he as seen at the G20 leaders’ summit mayoralty campaign for the federal was opposition leader. He looks at the when he told Vladimir Putin “I’ll GTA vote. disruptive innovation of social me- shake your hand, but you need to get Finally, Green Party Leader Elizabeth dia in elections—from Facebook and out of Ukraine.” Theatrical gestures May tells us why her party should Twitter to LinkedIn and Tumblr—and aside, Kinsman suggests the country be included in the leaders’ debates its impact on campaigns. Twitter may needs a change on the foreign policy and the larger national conversation, be an echo chamber, but what an echo. front and comes down hard on Harper which is one of the reasons why we Respected political strategist Robin for his secretive and polarizing style. have included her on our cover. She’s Sears takes a look at what the parties On the environment and climate earned her way there. need to do in the campaign. Sears change, the road to COP21 in Paris Elsewhere, in a timely and poignant asks: why not have an election about in November and December runs piece, Yaroslav Baran reflects on the issues? If only. through the Canadian election in Oc- situation after the parliamentary elec- Tom Axworthy, who was principal sec- tober. Canada is set to get only half- tions in Ukraine, where he has been a retary to Pierre Trudeau, and his Con- way to its 2009 Copenhagen target leader of Canadian observer teams for servative co-author Rana Shamoon of reducing GHG emissions to 17 per several elections. consider Harper’s bid to win a fourth cent below 2005 levels by 2020. And Finally, Paul Miller of the University consecutive election, a feat accom- that was before the even more am- of Alberta writes of the impact of plished only by Sir John A. Macdonald bitious goals announced by Barack winter on Canadian rail operations. among Conservative leaders (though Obama in the US-China accord in No- There’s a “tipping point”, he sug- he won four consecutive majorities, vember. David McLaughlin provides gests, of -25 minus degrees, where while Harper won a majority only in us with an environmental update for the Polar Vortex makes railway op- 2011). For most of the last century, Campaign 2015. erations challenging.

January/February 2015