Report

FEDERAL POLITICS

th DATE OctoberNUMÉRO9 , 2019 DE PROJET METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY

Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology.

From October 7th to October 8th, 2019

2,150 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in Canada, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region and level of education in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.

No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (Web panel in this case). However for comparative purposes, a probability sample of 2,150 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.11%, 19 times out of 20.

The research results presented here are in full compliance with the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

2 METHODOLOGY

Notes on Reading this Report

The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers.

In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents.

A more detailed methodology is presented in the appendix.

If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected]

3 FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS

Q1A/Q1B. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Base: All respondents, except for Yves-François Blanchet, Quebecers only (n=1,014)

TOTAL TOTAL Oct. 2, Varia- Eligible Decided ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ 2019 tion voters voters Weighted n = 2,150 1,896 124 445 739 125 213 250 934 962 517 612 767 1,336 Unweighted n = 2,150 1,899 89 887 564 113 114 132 969 930 558 674 667 1,352 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of 27% 31% 41% 31% 37% 19% 14% 30% 32% 30% 28% 28% 35% 34% -3 Canada ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative 27% 31% 31% 16% 31% 42% 60% 25% 34% 27% 25% 31% 34% 34% -3 Party of Canada ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic 15% 18% 14% 13% 18% 25% 17% 21% 13% 22% 25% 19% 11% 14% +4 Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of 10% 11% 11% 7% 11% 13% 5% 21% 10% 12% 15% 11% 8% 11% - Canada ...Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc 6% 7% - 29% - - - - 7% 6% 3% 6% 9% 5% +2 Québécois ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% +1 of Canada …for another party 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% - I would not vote 4% ------I would cancel my vote 2% ------I don’t know 5% ------Refusal 1% ------

4 TRENDS IN VOTING INTENTIONS IN CANADA

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Others May Oct. March May Nov. Feb. March April June Aug. Aug. Sept. Sept. Sept. Elec. Elec. Feb. 9, Dec. 2, July 25, Oct. 2, Oct. 9, 20, 28, 10, 16, 26, 20, 20, 28, 13, 21, 31, 11, 18, 25, 2011 2015 2016 2018 2019 2019 2019 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 LPC 18,91% 39,47% 49% 46% 42% 40% 38% 39% 39% 34% 31% 27% 29% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 31% CPC 39,62% 31,89% 27% 25% 30% 34% 38% 36% 33% 36% 37% 40% 38% 36% 33% 33% 35% 33% 33% 34% 31% NDP 30,63% 19,71% 15% 16% 15% 13% 14% 15% 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 11% 11% 12% 11% 12% 13% 14% 18% BQ 6,04% 4,66% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% GPC 3,91% 3,45% 5% 6% 7% 8% 3% 6% 5% 8% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% PPC 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% Others 0,89% 0,82% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

5 FINAL CHOICE

Q2. Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Base: Respondents who were able people people people people people people to say which party they intend to who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend vote for. to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for (weighted n = 1,889, unweighted the LPC the CPC the NDP the GPC the BQ the PPC (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = 48 n = 1,889) 590 584 333 206 128 unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = 53) 626) 503) 323) 178) 206)

TOTAL

Final choice 66% 69% 76% 52% 55% 68% 44%

I'm likely to change my mind 24% 21% 16% 33% 34% 31% 43%

I don't know / Refusal 10% 10% 8% 15% 11% 2% 13%

6 SECOND CHOICE

Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be…? Base: Respondents who were able to say which party they intend to vote for. (weighted n = 1,889, unweighted n = 1,889)

...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 25% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 16% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 13% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 6% ...Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois 3% None of them 21% DNK / Refusal 6%

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 1,889 123 442 738 125 213 248 933 956 515 607 767 Unweighted n = 1,889 88 880 563 113 114 131 966 923 554 669 666 ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 25% 27% 21% 29% 21% 21% 28% 25% 26% 31% 22% 24% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 16% 21% 13% 15% 15% 12% 29% 14% 19% 15% 16% 18% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 13% 14% 13% 15% 11% 9% 8% 12% 13% 18% 12% 10% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9% 5% 10% 8% 13% 9% 7% 9% 9% 8% 12% 7% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 6% 4% 3% 6% 8% 9% 6% 9% 3% 5% 8% 5% ...Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois 3% - 14% - - - - 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% None of them 21% 22% 18% 20% 25% 34% 16% 23% 19% 14% 20% 27% Don’t know / Refusal 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7 SECOND CHOICE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS

Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be…? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 1,889 590 584 333 206 48 Unweighted n = 1,889 626 503 323 178 53 ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 25% 43% 21% - 35% 14% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 16% 19% 12% 33% - 5%

...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 13% - 9% 33% 22% 7% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9% 12% - 11% 8% 47% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 6% 2% 12% 3% 4% -

...Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 5%

None of them 21% 14% 33% 10% 22% 17%

Don’t know / Refusal 6% 3% 10% 6% 8% 5%

8 BEST PRIME MINISTER

Q4. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? Base: All respondents (n=2,150)

25% 21% 16% 8% 3% Variation Oct. 2nd, (-1) (-) (+5) (-) (-) 2019

Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Other,” None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 9 EXPECTATIONS REGARDING THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION

Q5. During the next federal elections on October 21, do you want a change of government or do you want to continue with the team in place? Base: All respondents

Sept. 11, 2019 (n=1,546) Sept. 18, 2019 (n=1,598) Sept. 25, 2019 (n=2,153) Oct. 2, 2019 (n=1,558) Oct. 9, 2019 (n=2,150)

57% 54% 55% 55% 55%

32% 30% 30% 31% 28%

16% 15% 15% 14% 13%

A change of government Continue with the team in place DNK / Refusal

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+

Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 A change of government 55% 48% 49% 53% 65% 74% 58% 56% 55% 56% 58% 53% Continue with the team in place 31% 38% 35% 33% 28% 15% 32% 34% 29% 29% 28% 36% I don’t know / Refusal 13% 14% 16% 14% 7% 11% 10% 10% 16% 15% 14% 11%

10 PERSPECTIVE THAT MOST WORRIES CANADIANS

Q6. And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Base: All respondents

June 13, 2019 (n=1,528) Oct. 2, 2019 (n=1,558) Oct. 9, 2019 (n=2,150)

46% 44% 43% 42% 42% 37%

17% 14% 13%

The Conservatives coming back to power Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals DNK / Refusal in Ottawa

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 The Conservatives coming back to power 44% 44% 48% 49% 30% 32% 43% 42% 47% 46% 39% 49% in Ottawa Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 42% 42% 37% 37% 62% 60% 38% 46% 38% 35% 44% 44% I don’t know 11% 10% 12% 11% 7% 8% 16% 11% 12% 16% 14% 6% Refusal 2% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 11 PERSPECTIVE THAT MOST WORRIES CANADIANS – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q6. And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 2,150 590 584 333 206 48 Unweighted n = 2,150 626 503 323 178 53 The Conservatives coming back to power 44% 80% 8% 65% 50% 20% in Ottawa

Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 42% 8% 87% 27% 37% 79%

I don’t know 11% 10% 4% 8% 12% 1%

Refusal 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0%

12 WATCHED FRENCH LEADERS’ DEBATE

Q7A. Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in French on TVA on Wednesday, October 2? Base: All respondents (n=2,150)

1%

20%

79%

Yes No DNK / Refusal

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 Yes 20% 10% 40% 13% 17% 12% 15% 22% 17% 20% 17% 21% No 79% 88% 60% 85% 82% 87% 85% 77% 82% 78% 81% 79% Don’t know / Prefer not to answer 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0%

13 WATCHED FRENCH LEADERS’ DEBATE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q7A. Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in French on TVA on Wednesday, October 2? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 2,150 590 584 333 206 48 Unweighted n = 2,150 626 503 323 178 53

Yes 20% 20% 18% 18% 16% 19%

No 79% 80% 81% 80% 84% 81%

Don’t know / Prefer not to answer 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0%

14 WATCHED THE ENGLISH LEADERS’ DEBATE

Q7B. Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in English on CBC, Global and CTV on Monday, October 7? Base: All respondents (n=2,150)

1%

40%

59%

Yes No DNK / Refusal

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 Yes 40% 38% 25% 44% 47% 48% 43% 43% 37% 34% 38% 45% No 59% 59% 75% 54% 53% 51% 57% 56% 62% 64% 60% 55% Don’t know / Prefer not to answer 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

15 WATCHED THE ENGLISH LEADERS’ DEBATE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q7B. Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in English on CBC, Global and CTV on Monday, October 7? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 2,150 590 584 333 206 48 Unweighted n = 2,150 626 503 323 178 53

Yes 40% 48% 45% 44% 32% 63%

No 59% 52% 55% 54% 68% 37%

Don’t know / Prefer not to answer 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%

16 LEADER WHO WON THE FRENCH DEBATE

Q8A. Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the French debate? Was it... Base: All respondents

Watched the French debate (n=554) Didn't watch the French debate (n=1,574)

34% ...Yves-François Blanchet 6%

25% ...Justin Trudeau 8%

14% ...Jagmeet Singh 5%

12% ...Andrew Scheer 4%

16% DNK / Refusal 77%

All respondents TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 ...Justin Trudeau 11% 11% 16% 12% 6% 5% 10% 13% 10% 11% 11% 12% ...Yves-François Blanchet 11% 5% 35% 4% 4% 5% 3% 13% 9% 9% 11% 12% ...Jagmeet Singh 7% 8% 7% 7% 5% 6% 10% 7% 7% 9% 7% 6% ...Andrew Scheer 6% 6% 2% 6% 6% 9% 6% 7% 4% 6% 6% 5% Don’t know / Refusal 65% 72% 40% 72% 79% 76% 70% 60% 70% 64% 66% 65% 17 LEADER WHO WON THE FRENCH DEBATE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q8A. Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the French debate? Was it... Base: All respondents

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 2,150 590 584 333 206 48 Unweighted n = 2,150 626 503 323 178 53

...Justin Trudeau 11% 28% 3% 5% 8% 5%

...Yves-François Blanchet 11% 6% 9% 8% 7% 11%

...Jagmeet Singh 7% 6% 4% 18% 9% 13%

...Andrew Scheer 6% 1% 16% 1% 2% 9%

Don’t know / Refusal 65% 59% 67% 68% 74% 62%

18 LEADER WHO WON THE ENGLISH DEBATE

Q8B. Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the English debate? Was it... Base: All respondents

Watched the English debate (n=785) Didn't watch the English debate (n=1,343)

...Jagmeet Singh 29% 7%

...Andrew Scheer 22% 8%

...Justin Trudeau 20% 6%

...Elizabeth May 7% 3%

...Maxime Bernier 3% 0%

...Yves-François Blanchet 1% 1%

DNK / Refusal 18% 74%

All respondents TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 ...Jagmeet Singh 16% 17% 13% 15% 18% 19% 20% 15% 17% 14% 14% 19% ...Andrew Scheer 14% 13% 11% 12% 18% 27% 10% 17% 11% 10% 15% 15% ...Justin Trudeau 11% 14% 12% 13% 9% 5% 9% 13% 9% 10% 11% 12% ...Elizabeth May 4% 7% 2% 5% 8% 2% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 3% ...Yves-François Blanchet 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% ...Maxime Bernier 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% Don’t know / Refusal 52% 49% 56% 52% 45% 48% 55% 46% 59% 57% 53% 48% 19 LEADER WHO WON THE ENGLISH DEBATE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q8B. Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the English debate? Was it... Base: All respondents

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 2,150 590 584 333 206 48 Unweighted n = 2,150 626 503 323 178 53 ...Jagmeet Singh 16% 14% 8% 43% 13% 19%

...Andrew Scheer 14% 4% 39% 3% 1% 6%

...Justin Trudeau 11% 31% 2% 4% 4% 6%

...Elizabeth May 4% 3% 2% 2% 24% 0%

...Yves-François Blanchet 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1%

...Maxime Bernier 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 32%

Don’t know / Refusal 52% 46% 47% 47% 54% 36%

20 PERFORMANCE OF LEADERS DURING THE DEBATES

Q9. For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Base: All respondents (n=2,150)

...exceeded your expectations ...met your expectations ...was below your expectations DNK / Refusal

Jagmeet Singh 25% 26% 12% 38%

Elizabeth May 11% 30% 16% 43%

Yves-François Blanchet 9% 19% 21% 50%

Andrew Scheer 9% 25% 29% 37%

Justin Trudeau 6% 34% 26% 35%

Maxime Bernier 4% 19% 30% 47%

21 PERFORMANCE OF LEADERS DURING THE DEBATES – DETAILS RESULTS Q9. For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Base: All respondents

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Weighted n = 2,150 147 504 825 140 241 292 1,044 1,106 588 731 831 Unweighted n = 2,150 104 1,014 624 128 128 152 1,080 1,070 652 779 719 Jagmeet Singh ...exceeded your expectations 25% 23% 22% 24% 31% 30% 23% 24% 25% 24% 22% 27% ...was below your expectations 12% 16% 12% 11% 9% 12% 11% 14% 10% 8% 16% 11% Elizabeth May ...exceeded your expectations 11% 9% 7% 12% 15% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% ...was below your expectations 16% 13% 19% 14% 13% 24% 14% 20% 12% 12% 18% 17% Yves-François Blanchet ...exceeded your expectations 9% 7% 27% 4% 1% 3% 3% 11% 8% 8% 9% 10% ...was below your expectations 21% 24% 12% 21% 21% 35% 23% 22% 20% 18% 22% 22% Andrew Scheer ...exceeded your expectations 9% 13% 3% 10% 8% 18% 11% 11% 8% 8% 9% 11% ...was below your expectations 29% 28% 31% 31% 24% 23% 29% 29% 29% 26% 28% 32% Justin Trudeau ...exceeded your expectations 6% 3% 8% 6% 4% 2% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% ...was below your expectations 26% 22% 20% 23% 34% 39% 29% 27% 24% 20% 30% 25% Maxime Bernier ...exceeded your expectations 4% 2% 3% 5% 1% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% ...was below your expectations 30% 35% 29% 27% 33% 38% 31% 34% 27% 24% 29% 36%

Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Met your expections “, “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 22 APPENDIX DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Sampling Frame

Participants were randomly selected from LEO’s online panel.

Leger owns and manages an Internet panel that includes more than 400,000 Canadians coast to coast. An online panel consists of Web users profiled according to different demographic variables. The majority of Leger’s panel members (60%) were randomly recruited over the phone in the past ten years, which makes this panel very similar to the current Canadian population on a number of demographic characteristics. Moreover, 35% of panellists were recruited through affiliate programs and 5% through partner campaigns and programs.

To be eligible, respondents were required to be 18 years of age or older and have the right to vote in Canada.

24 DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The table below presents the geographic distribution of respondents before weighting.

Province Unweighted Weighted British Columbia 152 292 Alberta 128 241 Saskatchewan 51 65 Manitoba 77 76 Ontario 624 825 Quebec 1,014 504 New Brunswick 35 47 Nova Scotia 45 58 Prince-Edward-Island 5 9 Newfoundland and Labrador 19 33

25 DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The following tables present the demographic distribution of respondents according to gender, age, language (mother tongue), level of education and household income.

GENDER Unweighted Weighted Male 1,080 1,044 Female 1,070 1,106

AGE Unweighted Weighted Between 18 and 34 652 588 Between 35 and 55 779 731 55 or over 719 831

LANGUAGE (MOTHER Unweighted Weighted TONGUE) English 1,048 1,437 French 856 447 Other 241 261

EDUCATION Unweighted Weighted Primary/secondary school 545 684 College 713 854 University 874 585

The sample thus collected has a minimum weighting factor of 0.059 and a maximum weighting factor of 4.902. The weighted variance is 0.541.

26 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] Q0QC. In which province or territory do you live? Label Value Attribute Termination British Columbia 1 Alberta 2 Saskatchewan 3 Manitoba 4 Ontario 5 Quebec 6 New Brunswick 7 Nova Scotia 8 Prince-Edward-Island 9 Newfoundland and Labrador 10 Northwest Territories 11 Yukon 12 Nunavut 13

AT Q0QCG A series of questions were then inserted here in order to identify where respondents were from more specifically.

27 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] SEXE. Please indicate your sex: Note: As indicated by Statistics Canada, transgender, transsexual, and intersex Canadians should indicate the sex (male or female) with which they most associate themselves. Label Value Attribute Termination Male 1 Female 2

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] AGE. How old are you?

Label Value Attribute Termination Under 18 0 TERMINATE Between 18 and 24 1 Between 25 and 34 2 Between 35 and 44 3 Between 45 and 54 4 Between 55 and 64 5 Between 65 and 74 6 75 or older 7 I prefer not to answer 99 TERMINATE

28 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] ELI1. Are you at least 18 years old and eligible to vote in Canada? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 TERMINATE

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-6] Q1A. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...?

Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois [QC respondents only] 3 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 4 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 5 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6 …another party 7 F I would not vote 8 F I would cancel my vote 9 F I don’t know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

29 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-6] Q1B. Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for…? Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Yves François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois [QC respondents only] 3 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 4 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 5 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6 …another party 7 F I would not vote 8 F I would cancel my vote 9 F I don’t know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

[Q1A=1-6 or Q1B=1-6] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] Q2. Is your choice final or could you change your mind? Label Value Attribute Termination My choice is final 1 I might change my mind 2 I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 9 F

30 SURVEY

[Q1A=1-6 or Q1B=1-6] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-6] Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Yves François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois [QC respondents only] 3 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 4 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 5 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6 …another party 7 F I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 99 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-5] Q4. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?

Label Value Attribute Termination Justin Trudeau 1 Jagmeet Singh 2 Andrew Scheer 3 Elizabeth May 4 Maxime Bernier 5 Other 6 None 7 I don’t know 98 F Prefer not to answer 99 F

31 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-2] Q5. During the next federal elections on October 21, do you want a change of government or do you want to continue with the team in place? Label Value Attribute Termination A change of government 1 Continue with the team in place 2 I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 98 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-2] Q6. And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Label Value Attribute Termination Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 1 The Conservatives coming back to power in Ottawa 2 I don't know 98 I prefer not to answer 99 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : In order] Q7A. Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in French on TVA on Wednesday, October 2? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 I don't know / I prefer not to answer 98 F

32 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : In order] Q7B. Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in English on CBC, Global and CTV on Monday, October 7? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 I don't know / I prefer not to answer 98 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-4] Q8A. Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the French debate? Was it... Label Value Attribute Termination ...Justin Trudeau 1 ...Jagmeet Singh 2 ...Yves-François Blanchet 3 ...Andrew Scheer 4 I don't know / I prefer not to answer 98 F [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-6] Q8B. Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the French debate? Was it... Label Value Attribute Termination ...Justin Trudeau 1 ...Jagmeet Singh 2 ...Yves-François Blanchet 3 ...Andrew Scheer 4 ...Elizabeth May 5 ...Maxime Bernier 6 I don't know / I prefer not to answer 98 F 33 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : In order] Q9. For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ...... was below I don’t know / I ...exceeded your ...met your your prefer not to List expectations expectations expectations answer Label Value 1 2 3 99 Justin Trudeau 1 ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ Jagmeet Singh 2 ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ Yves-François Blanchet 3 ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ Andrew Scheer 4 ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ Elizabeth May 5 ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ Maxime Bernier 6 ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] SCOL. What is the last year of education that you have completed? Label Value Attribute Termination Elementary (7 years or less) 1 High school, general or vocational (8 to 12 years) 2 College (pre-university, technical training, certificate, accreditation 3 or advanced diploma ) University certificates and diplomas 4 University Bachelor (including classical studies) 5 University Master's degree 6 University Doctorate (PhD) 7 I prefer not to answer 9

34 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] LANGU. What is the language you first learned at home in your childhood and that you still understand? Label Value Attribute Termination French 1 English 2 Other 3 English and French 7 French and other 4 English and other 5 Other and other 6 I prefer not to answer 9

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] ENFAN. Are there any children who are UNDER 18 YEARS OF AGE living in your household? (IF SO): Are any of them 12 YEARS OLD AND OLDER or LESS THAN 12 years old? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes: 12 years of age and OLDER ONLY 1 Yes: 12 years of age and older AND younger than 12 years old 2 Yes: YOUNGER than 12 years old ONLY 3 No children under 18 years old at all in the household 4 I prefer not to answer 9

35 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] REVEN. Among the following categories, which one best reflects the total INCOME, before taxes, of all the members of your household in 2018?

Label Value Attribute Termination $19,999 or less 1 Between $20,000 and $39,999 2 Between $40,000 and $59,999 3 Between $60,000 and $79,999 4 Between $80,000 and $99,999 5 $100,000 or more 6 I prefer not to answer 9

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FED - Federal voting intentions with leaners No:1 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other FED Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 LPC 27% 29% 26% 27% 23% 24% 24% 30% 35% 25% 24% 33% 25% 27% 37% 35% 27% 33% 17% 12% 26% 27% 28% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NDP 15% 12% 19% 30% 18% 20% 12% 12% 9% 22% 16% 10% 11% 18% 9% 12% 12% 16% 23% 15% 18% 12% 17% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BQ 6% 7% 5% 3% 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 3% 5% 9% 28% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% CPC 27% 31% 24% 17% 25% 22% 30% 33% 30% 22% 26% 31% 16% 30% 33% 26% 14% 28% 37% 53% 21% 14% 31% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% GPC 10% 9% 10% 14% 13% 10% 9% 6% 8% 13% 9% 7% 7% 11% 8% 9% 6% 10% 12% 4% 18% 6% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% PPC 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 0% 4% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% I would not vote 4% 4% 4% 2% 5% 7% 5% 2% 1% 4% 6% 2% 2% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 6% 7% 4% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I would cancel my vote 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 4% 1% 0% 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I don't know 5% 3% 6% 1% 6% 6% 8% 4% 3% 4% 7% 4% 4% 5% 4% 8% 4% 4% 3% 4% 9% 4% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I prefer not to answer 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

FEDX - Federal voting intentions among decided No:2 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other FEDX Total pondéré : 1896 934 962 207 310 293 319 345 422 517 612 767 395 1267 233 124 445 739 125 213 250 445 1451 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 1899 969 930 220 338 329 345 302 365 558 674 667 749 933 215 89 887 564 113 114 132 887 1012 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 LPC 31% 32% 30% 29% 27% 28% 29% 32% 38% 28% 28% 35% 28% 30% 41% 41% 31% 37% 19% 14% 30% 31% 31% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NDP 18% 13% 22% 32% 21% 24% 14% 13% 9% 25% 19% 11% 13% 20% 10% 14% 13% 18% 25% 17% 21% 13% 19% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% BQ 7% 7% 6% 4% 3% 6% 7% 8% 10% 3% 6% 9% 32% 0% 0% 0% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% CPC 31% 34% 27% 19% 30% 26% 36% 36% 32% 25% 31% 34% 18% 34% 37% 31% 16% 31% 42% 60% 25% 16% 35% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% GPC 11% 10% 12% 15% 16% 12% 10% 7% 8% 15% 11% 8% 8% 12% 9% 11% 7% 11% 13% 5% 21% 7% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% PPC 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% 0% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? No:3 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP2 Total pondéré : 1889 933 956 206 309 293 315 345 422 515 607 767 394 1264 229 123 442 738 125 213 248 442 1447 590 333 128 584 206 48 0 n= 1889 966 923 219 335 327 342 302 364 554 669 666 746 931 210 88 880 563 113 114 131 880 1009 626 323 206 503 178 53 0 It’s my final choice 66% 69% 63% 53% 56% 63% 70% 69% 74% 55% 67% 72% 56% 68% 66% 65% 58% 70% 68% 72% 61% 58% 68% 69% 52% 68% 76% 55% 44% 0% I’m likely to change my mind 24% 23% 25% 37% 34% 27% 20% 18% 17% 35% 23% 18% 42% 19% 22% 25% 40% 17% 15% 18% 27% 40% 19% 21% 33% 31% 16% 34% 43% 0% I don't know / I prefer not to 10% 8% 12% 11% 10% 9% 9% 13% 8% 10% 9% 11% 2% 12% 11% 10% 2% 13% 17% 10% 12% 2% 12% 10% 15% 2% 8% 11% 13% 0% answer

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Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be...? No:4 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP3 Total pondéré : 1889 933 956 206 309 293 315 345 422 515 607 767 394 1264 229 123 442 738 125 213 248 442 1447 590 333 128 584 206 48 0 n= 1889 966 923 219 335 327 342 302 364 554 669 666 746 931 210 88 880 563 113 114 131 880 1009 626 323 206 503 178 53 0 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal 13% 12% 13% 19% 17% 15% 8% 9% 11% 18% 12% 10% 14% 13% 10% 14% 13% 15% 11% 9% 8% 13% 12% 0% 33% 20% 9% 22% 7% 0% Party of Canada ...Jagmeet Singh's New 25% 25% 26% 28% 33% 21% 24% 25% 24% 31% 22% 24% 21% 26% 32% 27% 21% 29% 21% 21% 28% 21% 27% 43% 0% 18% 21% 35% 14% 0% Democratic Party of Canada ...Yves-François Blanchet's 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 5% 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 14% 0% 1% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 0% 5% 3% 0% 2% 2% 5% 0% Bloc Québécois ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of 9% 9% 9% 11% 7% 12% 11% 6% 7% 8% 12% 7% 10% 8% 10% 5% 10% 8% 13% 9% 7% 10% 8% 12% 11% 16% 0% 8% 47% 0% Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green 16% 14% 19% 17% 14% 18% 14% 17% 19% 15% 16% 18% 12% 18% 17% 21% 13% 15% 15% 12% 29% 13% 18% 19% 33% 11% 12% 0% 5% 0% Party of Canada ...Maxime Bernier's People's 6% 9% 3% 2% 6% 12% 5% 6% 3% 5% 8% 5% 4% 7% 3% 4% 3% 6% 8% 9% 6% 3% 7% 2% 3% 3% 12% 4% 0% 0% Party of Canada None of them 21% 23% 19% 13% 14% 16% 24% 28% 26% 14% 20% 27% 19% 22% 21% 22% 18% 20% 25% 34% 16% 18% 22% 14% 10% 28% 33% 22% 17% 0% I don't know / I prefer not to 6% 5% 8% 8% 6% 3% 8% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 3% 6% 4% 10% 8% 5% 0% answer

In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? No:5 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP4 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 Justin Trudeau 25% 26% 24% 19% 20% 24% 19% 26% 36% 20% 21% 31% 28% 23% 29% 32% 30% 29% 14% 8% 21% 30% 23% 73% 8% 17% 2% 12% 6% 10% Jagmeet Singh 16% 15% 16% 29% 19% 18% 12% 16% 7% 23% 15% 11% 12% 18% 10% 14% 12% 17% 23% 14% 16% 12% 17% 10% 65% 12% 4% 5% 0% 12% Andrew Scheer 21% 25% 18% 11% 21% 14% 25% 27% 24% 17% 20% 25% 14% 23% 26% 14% 12% 21% 28% 42% 20% 12% 24% 1% 1% 9% 71% 2% 9% 0% Elizabeth May 8% 6% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 5% 8% 10% 8% 6% 5% 9% 10% 3% 5% 9% 10% 5% 15% 5% 9% 3% 5% 5% 2% 49% 2% 0% Maxime Bernier 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 0% 6% 1% 3% 3% 0% 1% 4% 3% 0% 62% 2% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 4% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 5% 2% 1% 1% 6% None 12% 12% 11% 5% 8% 15% 15% 13% 11% 7% 15% 12% 18% 10% 8% 11% 18% 9% 7% 8% 13% 18% 10% 3% 7% 33% 8% 16% 8% 53% I don't know 14% 10% 17% 22% 18% 13% 14% 9% 10% 19% 14% 10% 14% 13% 13% 21% 15% 11% 14% 15% 15% 15% 13% 9% 12% 12% 7% 13% 13% 17% I prefer not to answer 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 1% 0% 0%

During the next federal elections on October 21, do you want a change of government or do you want to continue with the team in place? No:6 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP5 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 A change of government 55% 56% 55% 51% 59% 58% 58% 56% 50% 56% 58% 53% 51% 57% 53% 48% 49% 53% 65% 74% 58% 49% 57% 5% 72% 60% 95% 67% 87% 62% Continue with the team in 31% 34% 29% 33% 27% 28% 28% 32% 40% 29% 28% 36% 33% 30% 39% 38% 35% 33% 28% 15% 32% 35% 30% 88% 14% 24% 2% 16% 12% 17% place I don't know / I prefer not to 13% 10% 16% 16% 14% 15% 14% 12% 10% 15% 14% 11% 16% 13% 8% 14% 16% 14% 7% 11% 10% 16% 12% 7% 13% 16% 3% 17% 1% 21% answer

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And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most: No:7 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP6 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 Four more years of Trudeau’s 42% 46% 38% 31% 38% 40% 48% 47% 41% 35% 44% 44% 37% 43% 43% 42% 37% 37% 62% 60% 38% 37% 43% 8% 27% 44% 87% 37% 79% 43% Liberals The Conservatives coming 44% 42% 47% 49% 44% 46% 33% 46% 50% 46% 39% 49% 49% 44% 40% 44% 48% 49% 30% 32% 43% 48% 43% 80% 65% 44% 8% 50% 20% 36% back to power in Ottawa I don't know 11% 11% 12% 18% 15% 12% 15% 6% 7% 16% 14% 6% 12% 11% 16% 10% 12% 11% 7% 8% 16% 12% 11% 10% 8% 10% 4% 12% 1% 21% I prefer not to answer 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 1% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%

Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in French on TVA on Wednesday, October 2? No:8 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP7A Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 Yes 20% 22% 17% 23% 19% 17% 17% 21% 22% 20% 17% 21% 43% 13% 18% 10% 40% 13% 17% 12% 15% 40% 13% 20% 18% 60% 18% 16% 19% 12% No 79% 77% 82% 74% 80% 82% 81% 79% 78% 78% 81% 79% 57% 86% 79% 88% 60% 85% 82% 87% 85% 60% 85% 80% 80% 40% 81% 84% 81% 88% I don't know / I prefer not to 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 3% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% answer

Did you watch the leaders' debate broadcast in English on CBC, Global and CTV on Monday, October 7? No:9 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP7B Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 Yes 40% 43% 37% 35% 33% 38% 39% 42% 47% 34% 38% 45% 23% 43% 47% 38% 25% 44% 47% 48% 43% 25% 44% 48% 44% 20% 45% 32% 63% 14% No 59% 56% 62% 63% 65% 61% 60% 58% 52% 64% 60% 55% 77% 55% 50% 59% 75% 54% 53% 51% 57% 75% 55% 52% 54% 80% 55% 68% 37% 86% I don't know / I prefer not to 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% answer

Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the French debate? Was it... No:10 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP8A Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...Justin Trudeau 11% 13% 10% 14% 10% 12% 9% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 16% 9% 15% 11% 16% 12% 6% 5% 10% 16% 10% 28% 5% 5% 3% 8% 5% 0% ...Jagmeet Singh 7% 7% 7% 6% 10% 8% 5% 7% 5% 9% 7% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 5% 6% 10% 7% 7% 6% 18% 4% 4% 9% 13% 4% ...Yves-François Blanchet 11% 13% 9% 9% 9% 10% 12% 11% 14% 9% 11% 12% 38% 4% 5% 5% 35% 4% 4% 5% 3% 35% 4% 6% 8% 73% 9% 7% 11% 12% ...Andrew Scheer 6% 7% 4% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 6% 2% 6% 6% 9% 6% 2% 7% 1% 1% 1% 16% 2% 9% 0% I don't know / I prefer not to 65% 60% 70% 64% 64% 65% 67% 65% 65% 64% 66% 65% 37% 73% 67% 72% 40% 72% 79% 76% 70% 40% 73% 59% 68% 17% 67% 74% 62% 84% answer

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Based on what you saw or heard during these debates, who won the English debate? Was it... No:11 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP8B Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...Justin Trudeau 11% 13% 9% 10% 10% 12% 10% 11% 13% 10% 11% 12% 10% 10% 18% 14% 12% 13% 9% 5% 9% 12% 11% 31% 4% 9% 2% 4% 6% 0% ...Jagmeet Singh 16% 15% 17% 17% 13% 14% 14% 17% 19% 14% 14% 19% 13% 18% 10% 17% 13% 15% 18% 19% 20% 13% 17% 14% 43% 14% 8% 13% 19% 16% ...Yves-François Blanchet 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 11% 0% 2% 1% 10% ...Andrew Scheer 14% 17% 11% 8% 12% 12% 17% 15% 15% 10% 15% 15% 13% 14% 15% 13% 11% 12% 18% 27% 10% 11% 14% 4% 3% 16% 39% 1% 6% 2% ...Elizabeth May 4% 5% 4% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 4% 6% 4% 3% 3% 4% 7% 7% 2% 5% 8% 2% 5% 2% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 24% 0% 0% ...Maxime Bernier 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 32% 0% I don't know / I prefer not to 52% 46% 59% 55% 58% 53% 53% 52% 45% 57% 53% 48% 56% 51% 49% 49% 56% 52% 45% 48% 55% 56% 51% 46% 47% 47% 47% 54% 36% 72% answer

For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Justin Trudeau No:12 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP9_1 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...exceeded your 6% 6% 5% 7% 5% 7% 4% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 7% 3% 8% 6% 4% 2% 6% 8% 5% 15% 2% 5% 2% 4% 4% 0% expectations ...met your expectations 34% 36% 32% 38% 30% 30% 29% 39% 38% 33% 29% 38% 41% 32% 34% 38% 40% 35% 27% 24% 28% 40% 32% 53% 36% 47% 23% 24% 33% 0% ...was below your 26% 27% 24% 17% 22% 29% 31% 23% 27% 20% 30% 25% 19% 27% 28% 22% 20% 23% 34% 39% 29% 20% 27% 5% 28% 26% 44% 34% 39% 59% expectations I don't know / I prefer not to 35% 31% 38% 38% 43% 34% 36% 32% 28% 41% 35% 30% 33% 36% 31% 36% 32% 35% 34% 34% 38% 32% 36% 27% 34% 22% 31% 38% 24% 41% answer

For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Jagmeet Singh No:13 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP9_2 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...exceeded your 25% 24% 25% 25% 24% 21% 24% 27% 27% 24% 22% 27% 21% 27% 16% 23% 22% 24% 31% 30% 23% 22% 25% 26% 49% 21% 22% 16% 29% 0% expectations ...met your expectations 26% 27% 25% 25% 23% 25% 24% 29% 29% 24% 25% 29% 31% 23% 35% 24% 29% 27% 24% 23% 24% 29% 25% 32% 19% 35% 28% 27% 37% 28% ...was below your 12% 14% 10% 9% 7% 16% 15% 10% 12% 8% 16% 11% 12% 11% 16% 16% 12% 11% 9% 12% 11% 12% 12% 11% 2% 20% 16% 14% 11% 30% expectations I don't know / I prefer not to 38% 34% 41% 40% 46% 38% 37% 35% 32% 44% 38% 33% 37% 39% 32% 38% 37% 38% 36% 35% 42% 37% 38% 31% 29% 24% 34% 43% 23% 41% answer

40 CROSSED TABLES

For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Yves-François Blanchet No:14 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP9_3 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...exceeded your 9% 11% 8% 11% 7% 8% 9% 11% 10% 8% 9% 10% 29% 4% 5% 7% 27% 4% 1% 3% 3% 27% 4% 10% 7% 51% 6% 3% 9% 10% expectations ...met your expectations 19% 22% 17% 20% 19% 17% 18% 19% 23% 20% 17% 21% 25% 18% 20% 17% 25% 19% 25% 15% 16% 25% 18% 23% 20% 28% 19% 19% 24% 2% ...was below your 21% 22% 20% 16% 19% 24% 21% 20% 23% 18% 22% 22% 9% 24% 24% 24% 12% 21% 21% 35% 23% 12% 24% 22% 24% 4% 28% 16% 24% 46% expectations I don't know / I prefer not to 50% 45% 55% 52% 55% 51% 51% 50% 44% 54% 51% 47% 37% 54% 51% 51% 36% 56% 53% 48% 58% 36% 55% 45% 49% 17% 47% 62% 43% 41% answer

For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Andrew Scheer No:15 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP9_4 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...exceeded your 9% 11% 8% 6% 9% 8% 10% 11% 10% 8% 9% 11% 5% 10% 16% 13% 3% 10% 8% 18% 11% 3% 11% 3% 3% 3% 24% 6% 20% 0% expectations ...met your expectations 25% 27% 22% 24% 21% 26% 25% 25% 26% 22% 26% 26% 30% 24% 20% 23% 31% 21% 32% 27% 21% 31% 23% 21% 20% 39% 37% 21% 27% 0% ...was below your 29% 29% 29% 30% 24% 30% 27% 31% 33% 26% 28% 32% 31% 29% 31% 28% 31% 31% 24% 23% 29% 31% 29% 46% 42% 34% 9% 31% 29% 49% expectations I don't know / I prefer not to 37% 32% 41% 40% 45% 37% 38% 32% 31% 43% 37% 32% 35% 38% 33% 36% 35% 38% 36% 32% 40% 35% 37% 30% 35% 24% 29% 43% 24% 51% answer

For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Elizabeth May No:16 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP9_5 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...exceeded your 11% 12% 11% 13% 12% 13% 9% 9% 12% 12% 11% 11% 8% 12% 13% 9% 7% 12% 15% 13% 14% 7% 12% 15% 17% 6% 6% 24% 6% 0% expectations ...met your expectations 30% 30% 30% 30% 23% 27% 29% 36% 35% 26% 28% 35% 26% 31% 34% 38% 26% 32% 28% 26% 32% 26% 31% 35% 31% 33% 32% 33% 28% 14% ...was below your 16% 20% 12% 9% 14% 16% 20% 16% 19% 12% 18% 17% 16% 17% 14% 13% 19% 14% 13% 24% 14% 19% 16% 13% 14% 19% 25% 4% 36% 45% expectations I don't know / I prefer not to 43% 38% 47% 48% 51% 44% 43% 39% 34% 50% 43% 36% 50% 41% 40% 40% 49% 41% 44% 37% 41% 49% 41% 38% 39% 42% 37% 39% 30% 41% answer

For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Maxime Bernier No:17 SEXE AGE (1) AGE (2) LANGUAGE REGION ROC FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + 18-34 35-54 55+ French English Other Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Quebec ROC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other CP9_6 Total pondéré : 2150 1044 1106 221 367 346 385 376 455 588 731 831 447 1437 261 147 504 825 140 241 292 504 1646 590 333 128 584 206 48 7 n= 2150 1080 1070 249 403 376 403 327 392 652 779 719 856 1048 241 104 1014 624 128 128 152 1014 1136 626 323 206 503 178 53 10 ...exceeded your 4% 4% 3% 2% 5% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 5% 1% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 27% 0% expectations ...met your expectations 19% 22% 17% 22% 22% 19% 19% 19% 17% 22% 19% 18% 22% 18% 22% 19% 21% 20% 19% 19% 16% 21% 19% 20% 19% 25% 23% 15% 39% 2% ...was below your 30% 34% 27% 30% 21% 29% 30% 35% 36% 24% 29% 36% 27% 31% 33% 35% 29% 27% 33% 38% 31% 29% 31% 34% 35% 31% 33% 29% 10% 46% expectations I don't know / I prefer not to 47% 40% 53% 46% 52% 47% 49% 42% 43% 50% 48% 43% 49% 46% 43% 44% 47% 48% 46% 40% 49% 47% 46% 42% 43% 41% 41% 51% 24% 51% answer

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