Review of the Humber's Economic Geography

Home , Barrow Haven, North East Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the Humber

Humber Local Enterprise Partnership

Final report

December 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP Humber Local Enterprise Partnership 30 Finsbury Square London EC2P 2YU +44 (0)20 7383 5100 +44 (0)20 7184 4301 grantthornton.co.uk

4th January 2019

Dear Richard Kendall Review of the Humber’s Economic Geography We have pleasure in enclosing a copy of our report in accordance with your contract. This document (the Report) has been prepared by Grant Thornton UK LLP (Grant Thornton) for Humber Local Enterprise Partnership (the Addressee) in connection with the delivery of the review of the Humber’s Economic Geography (the Purpose). We stress that the Report is confidential and prepared for the Addressee only. We agree that an Addressee may disclose our Report to its professional advisers in relation to the Purpose, or as required by law or regulation, the rules or order of a stock exchange, court or supervisory, regulatory, governmental or judicial authority without our prior written consent but in each case strictly on the basis that prior to disclosure you inform such parties that (i) disclosure by them is not permitted without our prior written consent, and (ii) to the fullest extent permitted by law we accept no responsibility or liability to them or to any person other than the Addressee . The Report should not be used, reproduced or circulated for any other purpose, in whole or in part, without our prior written consent, such consent will only be given after full consideration of the circumstances at the time. These requirements do not apply to any information, which is, or becomes, publicly available or is shown to have been made so available (otherwise than through a breach of a confidentiality obligation). To the fullest extent permitted by law, we do not accept or assume responsibility to anyone other than the Addressee for our work, our Report and other communications, or for any opinions we have formed. We do not accept any responsibility for any loss or damages arising out of the use of the Report by the Addressee(s) for any purpose other than in relation to the Purpose. The data used in the provision of our services to you and incorporated into the Report has been provided by third parties. We have not verified the accuracy or completeness of any such data. There may therefore be errors in such data which could impact on the content of the Report. No warranty or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any such data or of the content of the Report relating to such data is given nor can any responsibility be accepted for any loss arising therefrom .

Chartered Accountants Grant Thornton UK LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales: No.OC307742. Registered office: 30 Finsbury Square, London EC2 1AG. A list of members is available from our registered office. Grant Thornton UK LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.Grant Thornton UK LLP is a member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd (GTIL). GTIL and the member firms are not a worldwide partnership. Services are delivered by the member firms. GTIL and its member firms are not agents of, and do not obligate, one another and are not liable for one another’s acts or omissions. Please see grantthornton.co.uk for further details. grantthornton.co.uk Period of our analysis Our analysis was performed in the period between January and August 2018. We have not performed any analysis since August 2018 and, our Report may not take into account matters that have arisen since then. If you have any concerns in this regard, please do not hesitate to let us know. General The Report is issued on the understanding that the management of the Humber Local Enterprise Partnership have drawn our attention to all matters, financial or otherwise, of which they are aware which may have an impact on our Report up to the date of signature of this Report. [Events and circumstances occurring after the date of our Report will, in due course, render our Report out of date and, accordingly, we will not accept a duty of care nor assume a responsibility for decisions and actions which are based upon such an out of date Report. Additionally, we have no responsibility to update this Report for events and circumstances occurring after this date. Notwithstanding the scope of this engagement, responsibility for management decisions will remain solely with the directors of the Company and not Grant Thornton. The directors should perform a credible review of the recommendations and options in order to determine which to implement following our advice. Contacts If there are any matters upon which you require clarification or further information please contact Rob Turner on [email protected] or Ashley Turner on [email protected] Yours faithfully Phillip Woolley Partner [Grant Thornton UK LLP ]

Section Page Executive summary 05 Introduction 18 1. Economic themes 20 2. Economic trends, impact and future perspectives 118 3. Economic relationships 152 4. Economic centres 199

Introduction 1. Economic themes The Humber area is home to 927,000 people and 30,505 businesses across There are three themes that dictate Humber’s economic narrative over the past 3,639sq kilometres of land. It is governed by the four unitary authority areas of decade. These themes provide the context and baseline on which future Hull, East Riding of Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. strategy, priorities and activities need to be built. The purpose of this report is to provide a thorough analysis of the internal A growing economy with a need to narrow the gap economic geography of the Humber region and its relationships with neighbouring areas, with a particular focus on emerging changes over the past It is clear from a number of different economic measures that the Humber decade. In particular the analysis looks to test whether any places within the Economy has grown over the past 10 years. Humber have become more interlinked with other places, inside and outside of The total number of enterprises in the Humber LEP area increased from 26,270 the Humber. in 2010 to 30,505 in 2017 – a 16.1% increase. This was driven by both a To do this, the report looks at the Humber economy through four inter-related growth in the business formation rate which increased from 10.2% of all lenses: businesses being formed in the last 12 months in 2010 to 14.7% in 2016; as well as a reduction in the business death rate from 12.3% to 12.1%. 1. Economic themes; This growth in the business base within the Humber is also reflected in the 2. Economic trends; area’s overall economic scale with Gross Value Added (GVA) increasing from 3. Economic relationships; and £17,519m in 2009 to £17,801m in 2015, an increase of £282m or 1.6%. 4. Economic centres. However, within this overall picture of growth two important trends are apparent. The first trend is that growth in the Humber economy still lags behind the national average on a number of indicators. This is primarily because the rate of growth has been slower than the national average. For example, growth in the number of enterprises in the Humber was 16.1% between 2010 and 2017, compared to 27.1% nationally. Similarly, the business formation rate in the Humber economy increased from 10.2% in 2010 to 14.7% in 2016, whereas the national average increased from 10.1% to 15.0% over the same period.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 6 The result is that Humber’s economic scale, as measured by GVA, is smaller A stable industrial structure with a need to look at the industries of the than a number of other city regions or economic centres in the North of future England and, most significantly, growing at a slower rate. As a result, the gap In headline terms, whether measured by employee or enterprise numbers, the between local and national trends is widening. industrial structure of the Humber has remained broadly stable over the past The second trend is the notable variation in the economic performance decade. Compared to the national average the Humber LEP has relative between the four local authority areas that comprise the Humber area. This is strengths in agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, quarrying and utilities, perhaps best illustrated in terms of GVA, with East Riding of Yorkshire manufacturing, construction, motor trades, transport and storage, public generating £5,990m in 2015, Hull £5,129m, North Lincolnshire £3,415m and administration and defence and health sectors. Each of these sectors North East Lincolnshire £3,267m. However, it is a trend that plays out in comprise a larger proportion of the local economy than other LEPs and have different ways spatially across different indicators. For example: consistently done so over the last five years. • GVA per hour worked ranges from £178.81 in East Riding to £151.42 in Hull In absolute terms, the largest proportion of businesses in the Humber LEP area to £96.66 and £96.74 in North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire in 2017 were in: Construction (13.3% or 4,055 enterprises); Professional, respectively – to provide a sense of context the national average was scientific & technical (12.4% or 3,795 enterprises) and Agriculture, forestry & £131.78. fishing (8.4% or 2,550 enterprises). In employment terms the largest sectors were: Manufacturing (58,000 or 15.2%); Health (54,500 or 14.3%); and Retail • Resident weekly pay in 2017 was £503.30 in East Riding, £478.80 in North (37,000 or 9.7%). Lincolnshire, £452.40 in North East Lincolnshire and £399.30 in Hull – again to provide context the national average was £541.20. The most notable change has been in relation to arts entertainment and other services which has emerged as a sector strength for the Humber in comparison • The unemployment rate between October 2016 and September 2017 to the national average. As a sector there are 1,970 businesses in the Humber ranged from 3.1% in East Riding, to 4.3% in North Lincolnshire, to 5.6% in employing 14,250 people. This relative strengthening of this sector would North East Lincolnshire to 7.4% in Hull – this compared to 4.6% nationally. appear to be linked to Hull being the UK City of Culture in 2017 and the range This variation has implications for both the overall economic performance of the of activities associated with this. This is supported by the findings from the LEP area but also informs and shapes the economic relationships that exist University of Hull’s (2018) Cultural transformations: The impacts of Hull City of within the LEP and externally with other key economic centres in the north of Culture 2017 which estimates nearly 800 new jobs were generated in creative England. This raises a number of important policy and investment implications and visitor economy sectors between 2013-2016. in terms of both the spatial focus and the prioritisation of activity.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 7 Given the spatial variation in economic performance noted above it is Alongside this the proportion in the lower skilled occupation levels decreased unsurprising that the sectoral strengths in each of the four local authorities over the same period. For example, elementary occupations decreased from varies. For example, reflecting the larger spatial area, of the 4,055 construction 13.3% in 2007 to 12.0% in 2017, process, plant and machine operatives enterprises in 2017 nearly half (44.9%) were in East Riding as were half decreased from 10.6% in 2007 to 9.7% in 2017, and sales and customer (50.2%) of the enterprises in the professional, scientific & technical sector and service occupations decreased from 9.0% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2017. over three-quarters (77.1%) of the agriculture, forestry & fishing enterprises. However, despite the shift from lower occupation levels to higher occupation However, a different picture emerges when looking at employment levels with levels the Humber LEP area is still under represented in the higher occupation the city centre location of Hull emerging alongside East Riding as the primary levels relative the national median. The most obvious implication of this factor employment area. For example, 31.0% of the employees in manufacturing is that lower skilled jobs are generally lower wage and less productive. The work in Hull and 27.6% in East Riding and 33.0% of those employed in the longer term implication will relate to the changing nature of work and the extent health sector work in Hull and 31.2% in East Riding. to which these lower skilled jobs are ‘hollowed out’ and replaced with artificial intelligence and robots (see the next theme below). In considering the industrial structure there are two further noteworthy observations. The first is that the Humber LEP is a micro and small business The changing nature of industry will have a significant impact on the Humber economy with 97.8% of businesses employing less than 50 people in 2017, of economy – as it will the rest of the UK – over the next decade as the fourth which 87.2% employed less than 9. The proportion of large businesses in the industrial revolution will drive major disruption across manufacturing and LEP area is low (0.3%, 105 businesses) relative to the national average (0.4%). services. It will impact on business operations, economic performance and Despite this, there are a number of multi-national corporations which employ spatial planning and connectivity. Humber’s industries of the future will need to significant numbers of the population. Overall, this structure is similar to the be mindful of and respond to the UK Government’s ‘big challenges’ of AI and national picture but raises some important policy questions around the barriers the Data Economy, the Future of Mobility, Clean Growth and an Aging Society. and opportunities for micro and small business to scale. An economic base that underpins a number of social challenges with a The second is that over the past decade (2007-2017) the proportion of need to develop a strategy that jointly addresses these employees working in senior occupations has increased. For example, Within the Humber’s economy there are a number of social challenges facing managers, directors and senior officials increased from 8.2% in 2007 to 9.7% in the area. As already noted above, one of the main areas is the fact that the 2017, professional occupations increased from 13.8% in 2007 to 15.2% in Humber lags the national average on a number of key economic measures. 2017, and associate prof & tech occupations increased from 11.3% in 2007 to 12.0% in 2017.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 8 The same is true for more social measures. For example, in 2016 the 2. Economic trends, impact and future perspectives proportion of the working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 (degree and equivalent) and above is highest in East Riding, at 36.5% but this is still lower Building on these themes there are a number of important economic trends that than the national average of 37.8%. The lowest levels qualified to NVQ 4 and have shaped the current economic narrative along with emerging trends that above in 2016 are in North Lincolnshire at 22.96% which is considerably lower will distinctly shape the narrative in the future. than the national average. Historic population growth with emerging challenges for future economic Or house prices where despite growth of 39.9% between 2008 and 2017, growth average prices have fallen further behind the national average: While £285,424 Alongside the economic growth noted above, the resident population of the is the national average, the average in East Riding is £191,323, Hull is only Humber increased by 52,792 - 6% growth – since 2001/02. This growth in £115,906, North Lincolnshire is £152,579 and North East Lincolnshire is population has been predominantly driven by net internal (domestic) migration £131,005. and international migration, with natural change having a smaller impact. According to the 2015 Indices of Multiple Deprivation, the Humber LEP ranks However, over the last decade net internal (domestic) migration reduced 10th out of the 38 LEP’s on average across a range of indicators (income, significantly with a greater number of people moving out of the LEP area to employment, education, health, crime, living environment, and barriers to elsewhere in the UK. International migration has therefore become the largest housing and services), where 1 is the most deprived and 38 is the least driver of population growth in the area, with natural change playing a more deprived. These social challenges also vary significantly geographically. Hull is influential role in demographic change. These trends provide important context the most deprived, with a score of 41.24 which is the 3rd highest in the country, in considering future growth prospects for the LEP area. but there are pockets of deprivation across all three of the other local authority In unpicking these headline measures, two important factors emerge: areas. The most pronounced of these are in North East Lincolnshire around the urban areas of Grimsby and Immingham. • The first is that the most significant outflow of people to elsewhere in the UK is the young adult age group (15-29). This has significant implications for Given these challenges it will be important that future economic growth is the future economic growth of the sub-region – these people are the delivered in a way that enables inclusivity and seeks to support those furthest workforce of the future, they will be the ones that will drive productivity from the labour market; ensures that skills pathways are in place so that growth. Attracting young adults to the region, and encouraging those that employers have the skills they require; and that infrastructure is developed to live in the region to stay through the provision of both good jobs but also a enable people to access opportunities across the Humber LEP and beyond. vibrant cultural offer are therefore important policy priorities.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 9 The second is that the EU13* countries have contributed over 65% of total This lower growth rate has a number of potential implications for the Humber National Insurance Number registrations since 2005. The UK’s Exit from the economy. The first relates to its economic scale. With a continuing shift European Union and the uncertainty over how this will impact on the free towards urbanisation and growth of metropolitan areas there is a risk that the movement of people has the potential to have significant implications for the Humber economy is unable to compete with other metropolitan areas and Humber economy and is likely to impact on a number of key sectors: particularly the three large northern city regions of Leeds, Liverpool and construction; agriculture; and manufacturing. Understanding the extent to Manchester. Linked to this is the impact that a smaller scale economic centre which businesses in these sectors are expecting to be affected and how these has in attracting investment. This is relevant to both inward investment from skills and workforce gaps can be filled is an extremely pressing priority. While businesses as well as investment in relation to infrastructure and other they clearly present a challenge, through close working with local education government economic priorities (eg location of catapult centres, research providers from schools, to further and higher education there are a number of institutes etc). These factors in turn have a knock on effect on out-migration as opportunities that can be realised. young people leave in search of education and employment opportunities. Retention and growth of its younger adult age groups is a key requirement for Slower future population growth with implications for future the future growth of the Humber’s economy. competitiveness Another impact of a lower growth rate relates to the financial resilience of the Between 2016 and 2036 population growth across the Humber is expected to individual local authority areas. The ability to raise income is becoming an be 4.5%. This is 1.5 percentage points lower than the preceding 20 years. increasingly important lever for local authorities in ensuring their longer term Across the four local authority areas, forecast growth varies from 2% in North financial sustainability. Growth is a critical component of income generation: East Lincolnshire to 6.2% in East Riding of Yorkshire. new homes provide additional council tax revenues; new businesses provide However, and perhaps most significantly, all four local areas have forecast additional business rates; and thriving city centres maximise the opportunities growth rates that are significantly lower than other major northern cities, for for fee generation (eg parking). example Manchester’s population growth is forecast to be 18%, York 15% and Slower future economic growth with uncertainties for productivity Sheffield 13%. Only Sunderland at 3.6% has a forecast growth rate that is improvements comparable to the Humber authorities. Drawing on the West Yorkshire Combined Authority (WYCA) Regional Econometric Model (REM) over the period 2017-2036 the total number of full- time equivalent jobs in the Humber is forecast to increase by 20,140 – 5.7%. *EU 13 countries are those that have joined the European Union since 2004 – Bulgaria, Croatia, The largest increase is expected to be in East Riding of Yorkshire with 7,990 Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. additional jobs (7% increase), while North East Lincolnshire is estimate to see the smallest growth of 2,590 additional jobs (a 4.1% increase).

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 10 While this growth is positive, the REM anticipates the Humber LEP will Key macro trends experience lower growth than the wider region and other West Yorkshire Alongside these historic trends there are a number of macro trends emerging authorities. For example, West Yorkshire is expected to see growth in jobs at that are likely to have a significant impact on the future shape and scale of the twice the rate of the Humber (10.5% compared to 5.7%). This growth is Humber Economy, here – in short – are six that we think are likely to have a big primarily driven by the high growth rate in Leeds (13.7%). Of the other impact: Yorkshire authorities only Wakefield and Calderdale (6.9% and 7.4% growth respectively) have a comparable figure to the Humber authorities. • Cities are only going to become bigger and smarter – As cities become ever bigger and more populated the Humber will need to orientate itself In terms of the sectoral nature of the growth forecast, the REM estimates that more closely towards the economic centres of Leeds and Manchester. This the greatest increase within the Humber LEP will be in Public Services, Food will require investment in transport and infrastructure. However, it will be Services and Recreation, Transport and Storage, Professional and other important that the Humber doesn’t just look to UK cities but that it considers Private Services and Construction. Conversely, Manufacturing is estimated to how – based on its economic strengths – it can relate to other global cities. experience an overall decline in employment number over the forecast period. Alongside this as the internet of things becomes more mainstream there are How this forecasted growth will impact on productivity is one of the most opportunities for cities like Hull to become better connected and drive key important questions facing the Humber. With the REM estimating the greatest service improvements in public transport and waste to name but two. employment growth in public services, food services and recreation – • Technology and digital innovation is accelerating – The speed of traditionally lower productivity sectors – the Humber LEP area could face a technological advance and the fourth industrial revolution will have profound number of challenges in improving this. implications for how businesses operate, the products and services they However, with increasing automation, digitisation and major disruption offer and the way they engage with the market. This will see further expected in the service sector (see below) there is potential that lower disruption of existing markets (eg retail and the demise of the high-street employment growth could result in higher productivity growth. For this potential and increased automation in manufacturing) as well as driving disruption to be realised there is a need for the Humber LEP to ensure that it is investing and innovation in entirely new markets particularly in the service sector. in key areas that will help facilitate this. This includes the digital and tech skills How the Humber can harness these changes and advances for its economic agenda, supporting organisations to innovate and develop new products and success is both a significant opportunity and challenge. services and helping businesses to invest in new capital equipment and • New generations will have entirely new priorities – Younger generations research and development. – millennials, Generation Z and now Generation Alpha have a different set of priorities. This impacts on both how they view work and the economy as well as how they view society.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 11 They are less likely to have careers and more likely to work on different 3. Economic centres projects. They care more about the purpose of a business than its permanence. They are less attached to traditional status symbols such as These economic themes and trends do play out differently across different owning their own home and therefore potentially less connected to places. places within the Humber area. By looking through the lens of economic centres, further insight around the economic narrative around employees, • Demands on public-sector spending and services are rising businesses and residents emerges. dramatically – Financial austerity and an increasingly aging population are placing unprecedented demand on the public sector. These pressure will By analysing the geographic concentrations of resident population, employees fundamentally change the role of the public sector and potentially have and enterprises in the Humber area it is clear that there are four primary significant implications for how it can both support and drive economic economic centres: Grimsby+, Hull+, Scunthorpe+ and the South Humber Bank. growth. New models are therefore required that can help create more With three secondary economic centres: Beverley+, Bridlington+ and Goole+. inclusive growth. While not as large in scale as the four primary economic centres each are destinations for economic activity. • Growing demand for natural resources – Both the depletion of natural resources alongside growing public awareness and understanding of the These centres extend beyond the geographical areas traditionally associated issues related to climate change mean that immediate and dramatic shifts in with the cities and expand beyond local authority boundaries. behaviour are likely to take place. This will result in changes in regulation Employees and technology as well as forcing innovation and different consumer patterns. New models are therefore required that can help create more Hull+, Scunthorpe+, Grimsby+ and the South Humber Bank all have sustainable growth. comparatively high levels of employment. Of the 583 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) in the LEP area there are 13 that have more than 5,000 • Brexit and new relationships with Europe and other trading partners – employees and a further 15 that have between 2,500 and 5,000 employees. While uncertainty continues to dominate in relation to Brexit, what is certain The majority of these high employee LSOA are located in these four centres. is that it will have implications – either perceived of actual – for EU-UK trade, the free-movement of people and trading relationships with the rest of the Hull+ forms the largest centre in the Humber area. There are 9 LSOAs with World. This will impact on the Humber economy as it will the rest of the UK more than 5,000 employees in this centre and a further 4 LSOA with between and as such will shape and influence future growth in a profound and 2,500 and 5,000 employees. In total, these 13 LSOA alone comprise 77,000 notable way. In particular, the impact on trade through the Port of Hull and employees. access to migrant labour for industry will be key for the Humber area.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 12 Scunthorpe+ forms another centre of high employment. This centre comprises two LSOA with more than 5,000 employees (8,500 and 6,500 respectively) and a further two LSOA with between 2,500 and 5,000 employees. When combined, these 4 LSOA feature 22,750 employees which represent over 32% of the 70,525 employed in North Lincolnshire. Grimsby+ is another centre of high employment that spans the LSOA along the Humber bank and inland to the South. There is one LSOA in this centre with over 5,000 employees (9,500 employees) and another 5 LSOA with 2,500 and 5,000 employees. In total these 6 LSOA comprise 25,500 employees, which represent over 38% of the 66,805 employed in North East Lincolnshire. The South Humber Bank is the final centre with a high concentration of employment – albeit smaller than the other three. The two neighbouring LSOA that sit on either side of the North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire border comprise 9,000 employees. The secondary hubs (Bridlington+, Goole+ and Beverley+) have lower numbers of employees relative to these centres, with Beverley the only economic hub containing a LSOA with over 5,000 employees. Businesses The distribution of businesses is more varied than for employees, with high numbers in pockets of Hull+, Grimsby+ and the north west of East Riding of Yorkshire which is outside of one of the defined economic centres. Of the 121 Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA) in the LEP area there are 9 MSOA that have more than 500 enterprises and a further 11 with between 400 and 500 enterprises.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 13 Hull+ is home to a large number of enterprises. The centre has three MSOA Resident population with over 500 enterprises that sit next to each other along the bank of the The resident population is spread more widely across the LEP area with a Humber (in total comprising 2,045 businesses). One of these has 1,005 number of higher density pockets, often surrounding towns and city centres. businesses alone, which is the highest of any MSOA in the LEP area. There Hull+, Scunthorpe+, Grimsby+ and the South Humber Bank all have are a further three MSOA with between 250 and 500 enterprises in the city concentrations of resident population which are growing. centre that comprise a further 1,010 enterprises. In total, these 6 MSOA have 3,055 enterprises. This represents more than half of the businesses in the Hull Of the 583 LSOA in the Humber area, there are 40 LSOA with a population local authority area. greater than 2,000 and a further 82 LSOA with a population between 1,740 and 2,000. Hull+ has a clear concentration of resident population. There are 12 While Scunthorpe+ has pockets of high employment, the number of businesses LSOA in Hull+ with a population over 2,000, of which 6 are close to the city is low relative to other areas of the Humber area suggesting a small number of centre. The city centre has also seen large population growth over the last enterprises employing large numbers of people. decade, with 5 LSOA in the city centre having seen growth of over 500 Grimsby+ has one MSOA on the Humber which acts as a centre for enterprise. between 2006 and 2016. This MSOA features 545 enterprises which is the highest of all MSOA across Scunthorpe+ has pockets of high resident population both in the centre and to both North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. The South Humber Bank the North and South of the town. Of the 9 LSOA which have population over has a number of MSOA with between 300 and 400 enterprises that run along 2,000 in North Lincolnshire, 8 are in the Scunthorpe+ centre. Some of these the bank of the Humber. This comprises the areas of North Immingham, South pockets to the North and the South of the town have also seen high population Immingham, Stallingborough and to the West of Grimsby. growth, with 3 LSOA growing by over 500 between 2006 and 2016. One of There are also large pockets of enterprise across the North West of East these LSOA to the north of Scunthorpe experienced population growth of Riding of Yorkshire which is outside of one of the defined economic centres. 1,054, an increase of 68% over the time period. This is in contrast to the relatively low number of employees in these areas, The area surrounding Grimsby+ has a lower number of high population indicating these are small rural businesses which don’t have large economic hotspots (3 LSOA’s with populations over 2,000), although one of these LSOA presence. This is due to a higher proportion smaller businesses in the district, has a population of 3,560 which is the highest of all LSOA’s in the Humber with 89.3% micro (0-9 employees), 9.4% small (10-49 employees), 1.2% area. Similarly, the South Humber Bank does not have high concentrations of medium-sized (50-249 employees) and just 0.1% being large businesses resident population but has seen steady growth in a number of LSOA along the (250+). bank between 2006 and 2016.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 14 Future growth of the economic centres 4. Economic relationships In anticipation of how these centres are likely to develop in future, we have Having looked at the themes, trends and spatial focus within the Humber analysed the business and housing land allocations that form these centres. economy this final section looks at the different relationships and linkages that This provides a useful indicator of the breadth of these centres and where exist between places inside and outside the Humber. These relationships are a further economic activity around these centres may develop over time. It is critical part of the economic narrative and as such need to significantly shape clear from this analysis that the land allocations around these centres are and influence policy, investment and activity. growing and the functional economic sub-areas in the Humber are expanding. The Humber LEP economy is self-contained When observing the land allocations in Hull+ we can see that these expand beyond the city centre and local authority boundaries out to the West to Commuting patterns based on census data show that the resident population incorporate Elloughton, Welton, Melton, Swanland, Willerby, Hessle and tend to also work in the Humber area, with only a small percentage of residents Cottingham. To the north, the employment land allocations reach out to commuting beyond the Humber LEP boundary. This is most evident with Kingswood and Bransholme and to the east to Greatfield and Paull. The centre residents of Kingston upon Hull where over 95% work in the Humber LEP area. looks to also stretch south across the Humber Bridge to Barton-upon-Humber. For residents of East Riding of Yorkshire the proportion is 85%, for North East Lincolnshire it is 92% and North Lincolnshire it is 86%. This highlights that as a For the Scunthorpe+ centre we can see that these covers Frodingham and the geography the Humber is a functional economic area. Foxhill Industrial site to the North, Westcliff to the East and Yaddlethorpe to the south. The strongest linkage within the area is between East Riding of Yorkshire and Kingston upon Hull, where a large number commute in each direction. Over While the land allocations around the South Humber Bank comprises East 33,000 people commute from East Riding of Yorkshire to Kingston upon Hull, Halton, North Killingholme, South Killingholme, Immingham and accounting for 25.8% of the total out commuters from the authority. While over Stallingborough. 18,000 make the reverse journey from Kingston upon Hull to East Riding of When looking at the land allocations for Grimsby we can see that this Yorkshire, representing nearly one in five of the resident population. comprises Healing and Great Coates to the West. It comprises Waltham to the The second strongest linkage is between North Lincolnshire and North East south and Cleethorpes to the east. Lincolnshire, albeit with movement at a smaller scale. Nearly 5,000 commute from North East Lincolnshire to North Lincolnshire, representing nearly 8% of the resident population. While nearly 4,000 commute from North Lincolnshire to North East Lincolnshire, representing nearly 6% of the resident population.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 15 Commuter flows that cross the Humber tend to be weaker, although there is While the strongest linkages for residents of North Lincolnshire are with evidence to suggest that this is increasing. The patterns from South to North Doncaster (3.9%), West Lindsey (2.2%) and Lincoln (0.7%) and for North East tend to be marginally stronger. North Lincolnshire has 3.8% of the resident Lincolnshire are with East Lindsey (2.1%), West Lindsey (1.4%) and Lincoln population commuting to either Kingston upon Hull (2.10%) or East Riding of (0.42%). The proportion of residents in Kingston upon Hull that commute Yorkshire (1.67%). While 1.7% commute from North East Lincolnshire to either outside of the LEP area is much smaller than the other authorities. The Kingston Upon Hull (1.13%) or East Riding of Yorkshire (0.54%). In contrast, strongest relationships are with Leeds (0.4%), York (0.3%) and Ryedale (0.3%) 1.3% of residents in Kingston Upon Hull make the journey to either North though the numbers are low. Lincolnshire (0.61%) or North East Lincolnshire (0.72%) and 1.3% of East With road transport the primary method of travelling to work, connectivity may Riding of Yorkshire residents commute into either North Lincolnshire (0.87%) or be one barrier to extending economic linkages within and beyond the Humber North East Lincolnshire (0.43%). area. In particular, this appears to be an issue with Hull. Analysis of drive time Analysis of Humber Bridge traffic flow data suggests that linkages across the catchments show that a 60 minute drive from the centre of Hull+ would barely Humber have been increasing. This suggests that the Humber is becoming extend beyond the LEP area boundary. In contrast, the 60 minute drive time more integrated, with better connectivity potentially leading to benefits such as catchments for the other economic centres – Grimsby+, Scunthorpe+ and the agglomeration. Traffic flow across the bridge has increased from 6.0m vehicles South Humber Bank – show more expansive geographies can be reached. For in 1999/2000 to 9.8m vehicles in 2017/2018. The reduction of the toll in April example, the catchment for Grimsby encompasses Doncaster, Lincoln and 2012 appears to have had an impact on this. While the number of vehicles Skegness and the catchment for Scunthorpe includes Wakefield, Doncaster, remained relatively stable between 1999/00 to 2010/11, since 2012/13 the Lincoln and parts of Sheffield. Travel congestion appears to be another number has jumped from 6.4m to 9.8m in 2017/2018 representing growth of element affecting this, with average delays on A roads in Kingston upon Hull over 50%. The strengthening of linkages across the Humber is reinforced greater than the national average, while levels of congestion in the other three through the analysis of Highways England data which shows large increases in authorities are low relative to the rest of England. traffic flow between the Humber Bridge and Hull, as well as large increases While congestion is a factor affecting linkages it can also be viewed as between the Humber Bridge, Grimsby and Immingham. evidence of strengthening linkages. Road traffic counts have increased in all There is need to create strategic linkages to support future growth four authorities since 2000. The upward trend in all four authorities, experienced a drop during the recession in 2008 and subsequent years, but With the majority of commuters staying within the area, there is opportunity to have recovered since. Of the four Local Authorities, North Lincolnshire has strengthen the linkages beyond the Humber LEP boundary and therefore seen the largest increase in the volume of traffic between 2000 and 2016 rising expand the functional economic area. Of the four authorities, East Riding of by almost 25%. East Riding also saw a large increase in volume of traffic Yorkshire has the largest proportion of resident population commuting outside (18.6%), while there were also increases North East Lincolnshire (12.6%) and of the LEP area, with residents travelling to York (4.3%), Selby (2.0%), Leeds Kingston upon Hull (6.8%) though to a lesser degree. (1.5%) and Scarborough (1.5%).

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 16 These growth rates are high when compared to those seen by other areas in the North of England over the same period, such as York (10.6%), Liverpool (7.6%), Bradford (4.0%), Sheffield (3.8% and Manchester (2.4%). Rail traffic has also seen strong growth in the Humber LEP area, with ticket sales growing by 18.2% on average across the Humber LEP area with the vast majority of stations experiencing growth. The greatest number of ticket sales in 2017 were in Hull, Beverley, Bridlington, Brough, Grimsby Town and Scunthorpe stations. While the greatest proportional change over the period of 2007-2017 was seen in New Clee, Brigg and Kirton Lindsey. When analysing data from the University of Hull and further education institutions within the Humber area it is clear that learners are travelling across the Humber area to institutions, while the number of learners coming into the area from EU and non-EU countries is increasing. It is important that these learners remain in the Humber area after study and work. The most significant outflow of people from the Humber area to elsewhere in the UK is the young adult age group (15-29), with a net outflow of 1,300 each year associated with moves for higher education and employment opportunities. As the workforce of the future, this has significant implications for the future economic growth of the sub-region. Attracting young adults to the region, and encouraging those that live in the region to stay through the provision of both good jobs but also a vibrant cultural offer are therefore important policy priorities. By looking through the four lenses of economic themes, trends, centres and relationships a number of important finding about the scale and nature of the Humber economy have emerged. These findings need to shape and influence policy and action over the coming decade in order to build on strengths, address weaknesses and maximise opportunity.

Introduction The following pages of this Executive Summary provide the headline findings from these four chapters. Grant Thornton was appointed by the Humber Local Enterprise Partnership in January 2018 to produce a review of the economic geography of the Humber area (the area covered by the Humber LEP, comprising the unitary authorities of Hull, East Riding of Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire) and its key relationships. This review provides a thorough analysis of the internal economic geography of the Humber region and its relationships with neighbouring areas, with a particular focus on emerging changes over the past decade. The review looks to test whether any places within the Humber have become more interlinked with other places, inside and outside of the Humber. To address these objectives, we have analysed the Humber economy through four inter-related lenses: 1. Economic themes - this section focuses on providing analysis of a broad range of individual data sources. These sources and analysis has been grouped into a range of themes e.g. Business, Demography, Workforce, Key sectors and many others. 2. Economic trends, impact and future perspectives – this section provides an overview of how the Humber economy has changed and how it might be expected to change in the future. 3. Economic relationships - this section provides commentary on the different relationships and linkages that exist within the Humber and with different places out-with the Humber. 4. Economic centres – this section focuses on analysis of the primary and secondary economic centres in the Humber Economy.

Introduction A growing economy with a need to narrow the gap This section of the report looks across a broad range of economic and social It is clear from a number of different economic measures that the Humber measures to provide an overview of the Humber economy and its society. The Economy has grown over the past 10 years. measures in this section include: The total number of enterprises in the Humber LEP area increased from 26,270 • Enterprises (total enterprises, business formation rates, business death in 2010 to 30,505 in 2017 – a 16.1% increase. This was driven by both a rates, employee and turnover growth rates, enterprises by industry) growth in the business formation rate which increased from 10.2% of all businesses being formed in the last 12 months in 2010 to 14.7% in 2016; as • Labour market (employees by industry, occupation levels, economic activity well as a reduction in the business death rate from 12.3% to 12.1%. rate, unemployment rate, claimants, resident hours worked, resident weekly pay, workplace weekly pay) This growth in the business base within the Humber is also reflected in the area’s overall economic scale with Gross Value Added (GVA) increasing from • Gross value added (total GVA, GVA per job, GVA per hour worked) £17,519m in 2009 to £17,801m in 2015, an increase of £282m or 1.6%. • Business location index (rank of economic performance, people and skills, However, within this overall picture of growth two important trends are environment & infrastructure) apparent. • Societal themes (population forecasts, age demographics, ethnicity, The first trend is that growth in the Humber economy still lags behind the nationalities, languages, health, wellbeing, deprivation, skills and national average on a number of indicators. This is primarily because the rate qualifications) of growth has been slower than the national average. For example, growth in • Housing (household structures, projections, prices, land values, affordability, the number of enterprises in the Humber was 16.1% between 2010 and 2017, planning permissions, house building, capital values) compared to 27.1% nationally. Similarly, the business formation rate in the In analysing and synthesising this broad range of measures we have identified Humber economy increased from 10.2% in 2010 to 14.7% in 2016, whereas the following three headline themes. These themes are also picked up again in the national average increased from 10.1% to 15.0% over the same period. the conclusions and recommendations section. The result is that Humber’s economic scale, as measured by GVA, is smaller than a number of other city regions or economic centres in the North of England and, most significantly, growing at a slower rate. As a result, the gap between local and national trends is widening.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 21 The second trend is the notable variation in the economic performance A stable industrial structure with a need to look at the between the four local authority areas that comprise the Humber LEP area. This is perhaps best illustrated in terms of GVA, with East Riding of Yorkshire industries of the future generating £5,990m in 2015, Hull £5,129m, North Lincolnshire £3,415m and In headline terms, whether measured by employee or enterprise numbers, the North East Lincolnshire £3,267m. However, it is a trend that plays out in industrial structure of the Humber has remained broadly stable over the past different ways spatially across different indicators. For example: decade. Compared to the national average the Humber LEP has relative GVA per hour worked ranges from £178.81 in East Riding to £151.42 in Hull to strengths in agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining, quarrying and utilities, £96.66 and £96.74 in North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire manufacturing, construction, motor trades, transport and storage, public respectively – to provide a sense of context the national average was £131.78. administration and defence and health sectors. Each of these sectors comprise a larger proportion of the local economy than other LEPs and have Resident weekly pay in 2017 was £503.30 in East Riding, £478.80 in North consistently done so over the last five years. Lincolnshire, £452.40 in North East Lincolnshire and £399.30 in Hull – again to provide context the national average was £541.20. In absolute terms, the largest proportion of businesses in the Humber LEP area in 2017 were in: Construction (13.3% or 4,055 enterprises); Professional, The unemployment rate between October 2016 and September 2017 ranged scientific & technical (12.4% or 3,795 enterprises) and Agriculture, forestry & from 3.1% in East Riding, to 4.3% in North Lincolnshire, to 5.6% in North East fishing (8.4% or 2,550 enterprises). In employment terms the largest sectors Lincolnshire to £7.4% in Hull – this compared to 4.6% nationally. were: Manufacturing (58,000 or 15.2%); Health (54,500 or 14.3%); and Retail This variation has implications for both the overall economic performance of the (37,000 or 9.7%). LEP area but also informs and shapes the economic relationships that exist The most notable change has been in relation to arts entertainment and other within the LEP and externally with other key economic centres in the north of services which has emerged as a sector strength for the Humber in comparison England. This raises a number of important policy and investment implications to the national average. As a sector there are 1,970 businesses in the LEP in terms of both the spatial focus and the prioritisation of activity. employing 14,250 people. This relative strengthening of this sector would appear to be linked to Hull being the UK City of Culture in 2017 and the range of activities associated with this. This is supported by the findings from the University of Hull’s (2018) Cultural transformations: The impacts of Hull City of Culture 2017 which estimates nearly 800 new jobs were generated in creative and visitor economy sectors between 2013-2016.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 22 Given the spatial variation in economic performance noted above it is Alongside this the proportion in the lower skilled occupation levels decreased unsurprising that the sectoral strengths in each of the four local authorities over the same period. For example, elementary occupations decreased from varies. For example, reflecting the larger spatial area, of the 4,055 construction 13.3% in 2007 to 12.0% in 2017, process, plant and machine operatives enterprises in 2017 nearly half (44.9%) were in East Riding as were half decreased from 10.6% in 2007 to 9.7% in 2017, and sales and customer (50.2%) of the enterprises in the professional, scientific & technical sector and service occupations decreased from 9.0% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2017. over three-quarters (77.1%) of the agriculture, forestry & fishing enterprises. However, despite the shift from lower occupation levels to higher occupation However, a different picture emerges when looking at employment levels with levels the Humber LEP area is still under represented in the higher occupation the city centre location of Hull emerging alongside East Riding as the primary levels relative the national median. The most obvious implication of this factor employment area. For example, 31.0% of the employees in manufacturing is that lower skilled jobs are generally lower wage and less productive. The work in Hull and 27.6% in East Riding and 33.0% of those employed in the longer term implication will relate to the changing nature of work and the extent health sector work in Hull and 31.2% in East Riding. to which these lower skilled jobs are ‘hollowed out’ and replaced with artificial intelligence and robots (see the next theme below). In considering the industrial structure there are two further noteworthy observations. The first is that the Humber LEP is a micro and small business The changing nature of industry will have a significant impact on the Humber economy with 97.8% of businesses employing less than 50 people in 2017, of economy – as it will the rest of the UK – over the next decade as the fourth which 87.2% employed less than 9. The proportion of large businesses in the industrial revolution will drive major disruption across manufacturing and LEP area is low (0.3%, 105 businesses) relative to the national average (0.4%). services. It will impact on business operations, economic performance and Despite this, there are a number of multi-national corporations which employ spatial planning and connectivity. Humber’s industries of the future will need to significant numbers of the population. Overall, this structure is similar to the be mindful of and respond to the UK Government’s ‘big challenges’ of AI and national picture but raises some important policy questions around the barriers the Data Economy, the Future of Mobility, Clean Growth and an Aging Society. and opportunities for micro and small business to scale. An economic base that underpins a number of social The second is that over the past decade (2007-2017) the proportion of employees working in senior occupations has increased. For example, challenges with a need to develop a strategy that jointly managers, directors and senior officials increased from 8.2% in 2007 to 9.7% in addresses these 2017, professional occupations increased from 13.8% in 2007 to 15.2% in Within the Humber’s economy there are a number of social challenges facing 2017, and associate prof & tech occupations increased from 11.3% in 2007 to the area. As already noted above, one of the main areas is the fact that the 12.0% in 2017. Humber lags the national average on a number of key economic measures.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 23 The same is true for more social measures. For example, in 2016 the proportion of the working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 (degree and equivalent) and above is highest in East Riding, at 36.5% but this is still lower than the national average of 37.8%. The lowest levels qualified to NVQ 4 and above in 2016 are in North Lincolnshire at 22.96% which is considerably lower than the national average. Or house prices where despite growth of 39.9% between 2008 and 2017, average prices have fallen further behind the national average: While £285,424 is the national average the average in East Riding is £191,323 while in Hull it is only £115,906. According to the 2015 Indices of Multiple Deprivation, the Humber LEP ranks 10th out of the 38 LEP’s on average across a range of indicators (income, employment, education, health, crime, living environment, and barriers to housing and services), where 1 is the most deprived and 38 is the least deprived. These social challenges also vary significantly geographically. Hull is the most deprived, with a score of 41.24 which is the 3rd highest in the country, but there are pockets of deprivation across all three of the other local authority areas. The most pronounced of these are in North East Lincolnshire around the urban areas of Grimsby and Immingham. Given these challenges it will be important that future economic growth is delivered in a way that enables inclusivity and seeks to support those furthest from the labour market; ensures that skills pathways are in place so that employers have the skills they require; and that infrastructure is developed to enable people to access opportunities across the Humber LEP and beyond.

Total enterprises Total enterprises, 2010-2017

Change in the total number of enterprises in an area over time can be analysed 30,000 5,410 to indicate both the direction and rate of growth in a place. 5,240 5,400 25,000 4,850 4,825 4,625 4,670 4,670 4,675 • The total number of enterprises in the Humber LEP area increased from 4,415 4,535 20,000 4,085 3,860 3,925 3,875 3,995 26,270 in 2010 to 30,505 in 2017. This represents an increase of 4,235 6,060 5,650 5,815 enterprises or 16.1%. While positive, the rate of growth is behind the 27.1% 15,000 5,165 4,980 5,045 4,975 5,180 average seen nationally. 10,000 14,360 12,170 12,165 12,420 13,420 13,590 • Over the same period the number of enterprises in East Riding of 5,000 11,870 12,110 Yorkshire increased from 12,170 to 14,360, representing an 18.0% increase. As a proportion of all the enterprises in the Humber LEP area, 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Riding of Yorkshire increased from 46.3% in 2010 to 47.1% in 2017. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire • In Kingston upon Hull the number of enterprises increased from 5,165 to 6,060, an increase of 17.3%. As a proportion of all the enterprises in the Proportion of total enterprises in Humber LEP area, 2010-2017 Humber LEP area, Kingston upon Hull increased from 19.7% in 2010 to 19.9% in 2017. 100% 90% 18.5% 18.3% 18.1% 18.2% 18.3% 18.2% 18.4% 17.7% • The number of enterprises in North East Lincolnshire increased from 80% 15.6% 15.2% 15.2% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4% 15.5% 15.3% 4,085 to 4,675, a 14.4% increase. As a proportion of all the enterprises in 70% 60% the Humber LEP area, North East Lincolnshire decreased from 15.6% in 19.7% 19.7% 19.6% 19.4% 19.6% 19.7% 19.8% 19.9% 2010 to 15.3% in 2017. 50% 40% • While in North Lincolnshire the number of enterprises increased from 30% 46.9% 47.1% 47.2% 47.0% 46.7% 47.1% 4,850 to 5,410 over the period, representing a 11.5% increase. As a 20% 46.3% 46.3% proportion of all the enterprises in the Humber LEP area, the proportion in 10% North Lincolnshire decreased from 18.5% in 2010 to 17.7% in 2017. 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Business formation rates Business formation rates in Humber LEP area, 2010-2016 Business formation is the number of newly registered businesses as a 20 proportion of the total active business base. It is considered a vital ingredient in 18 16 15.0 local economies, encouraging 'churn' and driving growth. 14.4 14.0 14.7 14 11.6 14.7 • Over the period of 2010 to 2016 the business formation rate in the Humber 12 11.4 13.8 13.3 13.2 10.1 10 11.0 LEP area increased from 10.2% to 14.7%. This followed a similar trajectory 10.2 10.7 to the average for England which increased from 10.1% to 15.0% over the 8 same period. 6 4 • Over this period the business formation rate in East Riding of Yorkshire 2 increased from 8.9% in 2010 to 13.7% in 2016, a 4.8 percentage point 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 increase. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of • In Kingston upon Hull the business formation rate increased from 10.0% in North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Humber LEP area England 2010 to 14.4% in 2016, an increase of 4.4 percentage points.

• The business formation rate in North East Lincolnshire was consistently pp. increase higher than the other three local authorities in the LEP area over the period. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 - The rate increased from 15.0% in 2010 to 19.3% in 2016, an increase of 4.3 2016 percentage points.* East Riding of Yorkshire 8.9 9.1 9.3 11.9 11.9 11.1 13.7 4.8

• In North Lincolnshire the business formation rate increased from 8.6% in Kingston upon Hull, City of 10.0 11.5 11.5 14.5 12.9 13.5 14.4 4.3

2010 to 12.7% in 2016, an increase of 4.1 percentage points. North East Lincolnshire 15.0 14.9 15.5 17.5 18.2 17.9 19.3 4.3

North Lincolnshire 8.6 9.2 10.1 13.9 12.3 12.8 12.7 4.1 *Note: ONS have acknowledged that the business births data for North East Lincolnshire has been Humber LEP area 10.2 10.7 11.0 13.8 13.3 13.2 14.7 4.5 distorted by the presence of the local VAT office. As a result, VAT registrations and de-registrations are impacted, as well as the corresponding business formation and business death rates. England 10.1 11.4 11.6 14.4 14.0 14.7 15.0 4.8

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Business death rates Business death rates in Humber LEP area, 2010-2016

In contrast to the business formation rate, the business death rate observes the 20 the number of business deaths as a proportion of the total active business base. 15 12.3 12.0 11.5 12.1 10.7 10.8 10.8 • Over the period of 2010 to 2016 the business death rate in the Humber LEP 10 10.7 10.7 11.7 area decreased from 12.3% to 12.1%. Over the period the business death 9.9 9.8 9.7 10.7 rate was consistently above the average for England, which increased from 5 10.7% in 2010 to 11.7% in 2016, though the gap did narrow. 0 • East Riding of Yorkshire was the only local authority in the Humber LEP 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 area to see the business death rate decrease over the period. The rate fell from 11.2% in 2010 to 9.8% in 2016, a reduction of 1.5 percentage points. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire • In Kingston upon Hull the rate increased marginally from 11.1% in 2010 to Humber LEP area England 11.3% in 2016, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

pp change • In North East Lincolnshire the rate increased from 17.5% in 2010 to 18.6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in 2016, an increase of 1.1 percentage points.* 2010-2016

• In North Lincolnshire the rate increased from 11.2% in 2010 to 12.0% in East Riding of Yorkshire 11.2 9.5 10.7 10.0 9.1 9.5 9.8 -1.5 2016, an increase of 0.7 percentage points. Kingston upon Hull, City of 11.1 10.4 11.0 9.7 10.0 11.1 11.3 0.2

North East Lincolnshire 17.5 15.3 17.3 15.5 17.9 18.4 18.6 1.1

*Note: ONS have acknowledged that the business births data for North East Lincolnshire has been North Lincolnshire 11.2 9.6 11.1 9.3 8.7 9.7 12.0 0.7 distorted by the presence of the local VAT office. As a result, VAT registrations and de-registrations are impacted, as well as the corresponding business formation and business death rates. Humber LEP area 12.3 10.7 12.0 10.8 10.8 11.5 12.1 -0.2

England 10.7 9.9 10.7 9.8 9.7 10.7 11.7 0.9

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Note: We anticipate data may be skewed due to simulated registry issues.

Employee & turnover growth rates Median CAGR 2013-16

The chart to the right illustrate the median Compound Annual Growth Rates 8% 6.7% 7.0% (CAGR) for turnover and employees between 2013 and 2016 in the four 7% 6.0% 6.2% authorities within the Humber LEP area. This data is extracted from the FAME 6% 5.5% database and includes all those companies with accounts and where they 5% reported a turnover that exceeded £1,000 or had one or more employees in 4.0% 4% 2016. It should be noted that as a result of account filing regulation and the 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 3% 2.3% 2.5% small firm exemption this data is likely to be more reflect the business based 2.1% with turnover greater than £6.5 million. 2% • Median CAGR for employees in the Humber LEP area was 3.0% between 1% 2013-2016, higher than the average of 2.5% seen for the UK over the same 0% East Riding of Kingston Upon North East North Humber LEP UK period. North Lincolnshire (5.5%), East Riding of Yorkshire (3.0%) and Yorkshire Hull, City of Lincolnshire Lincolnshire area Kingston Upon Hull (2.7%) all exceeded the national average, while North Median Employee CAGR 2013-16 Median Turnover CAGR 2013-16 East Lincolnshire (2.1%) trailed behind.

• Median CAGR for turnover in the Humber LEP area was 6.2% between % of % of % of % of Median Median population population population population 2013 and 2016, higher than the 4.0% seen nationally. North Lincolnshire Total Employee Turnover with Employee with Employee with Turnover with Turnover Population (7.0%), Kingston Upon Hull (6.7%) and East Riding of Yorkshire (6.0%) all CAGR 2013-16 CAGR 2013-16 CAGR 2013-16 CAGR 2013-16 CAGR 2013-16 CAGR 2013-16 exceeded the national average while North Lincolnshire (2.3%) again fell of >20% of 10%-20% of >20% of 10%-20% below this pace. East Riding of Yorkshire 277 3.0% 6.0% 5.1% 6.5% 10.1% 15.5% Kingston Upon Hull, The table to the right also shows the proportion of companies that had 338 2.7% 6.7% 6.5% 7.4% 8.9% 18.3% City of employee and turnover CAGR rates between 10%-20% and those that exceed North East Lincolnshire 135 2.1% 2.3% 9.6% 7.4% 8.1% 7.4% 20%, the latter of which can be considered as high growth firms. North Lincolnshire 114 5.5% 7.0% 7.9% 13.2% 7.9% 18.4%

• North East Lincolnshire had the highest proportion of companies with Humber LEP area 864 3.0% 6.2% 10.2% 13.6% 6.9% 14.4% employee CAGR above 20%, at 9.6%. UK 101,597 2.5% 4.0% 5.6% 7.5% 10.6% 10.7% • East Riding of Yorkshire had the highest proportion of companies with Source: Bureau van Dijk (2018) FAME turnover CAGR above 20%, at 10.1%.

Enterprise by employment size Enterprises by employment size, 2017

Of the 30,500 enterprises in the Humber LEP area in 2017, 26,605 (87.2%) 30,000 26,605 were micro enterprises (0-9 employees), 3,235 (10.6%) were small enterprises 25,000 (10-40 employees), 555 were medium-sized enterprises (50-249 employees) and 105 (0.3%) were large enterprises (250+ employees). 20,000 East Riding of Yorkshire had the largest proportion of micro enterprises at 15,000

89.2%, compared to 82.0% in Kingston Upon Hull, 86.7% in North East 10,000 Lincolnshire and 88.1% in North Lincolnshire. 3,235 5,000 Kingston upon Hull had the largest proportion of small enterprises at 14.3% 555 105 0 compared to 9.3% in East Riding of Yorkshire, 10.7% in North East Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+) Lincolnshire and 9.8% in North Lincolnshire. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull also had the largest proportion of medium sized businesses at 3.1%, compared to 1.2% in East Riding of Yorkshire, 2.0% in North East Proportion of enterprises by employment band size, 2017

Lincolnshire and 1.8% in North Lincolnshire. 100 89.2 86.788.187.2 90 82.0 Kingston upon Hull also had the largest proportion of large enterprises at 0.6%, 80 compared to 0.2% in East Riding of Yorkshire and 0.4% in both North 70 Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. 60 50 40 30 14.3 20 9.3 10.79.8 10.6 10 1.2 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0 Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+)

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Humber LEP

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band Note: The total number of enterprises in the Humber LEP area on the ‘Enterprises by employment size’ slide differs to the ‘Enterprises by Industry’ slide. This is a reflection of the differences in the ONS data.

Total enterprises by industry, 2017 Enterprises by industry 4,055 4,500 3,795 4,000 Understanding the sectoral composition of an area is a particularly important 3,500 2,550 2,4452,405 3,000 2,105 2,120 2,115 1,970 consideration for businesses both in terms of agglomeration benefits but also in 2,500 1,320 terms of competition. 2,000 1,1801,190 1,010 925 1,500 530 1,000 195 425 180 • Of the 30,515 enterprises in the Humber LEP area in 2017, the Construction 500 0 (13.3% or 4,055 enterprises), Professional, scientific & technical (12.4% or 3,795 enterprises) and Agriculture, forestry & fishing (8.4% or 2,550 enterprises) were the sectors with the most enterprises. • Of those 4,055 construction enterprises, 1,820 (44.9%) were in East Riding of Yorkshire, 800 (19.7%) were in Kingston upon Hull, 720 (17.8%) were in North East Lincolnshire and 715 (17.6%) were in North Lincolnshire. • Of the 3,795 Professional, scientific & technical enterprises, 1,905 (50.2%) were East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire in East Riding of Yorkshire, 670 (17.7%) were in Kingston upon Hull, 565 (149%) Proportion of total enterprises in Humber LEP area by were in North East Lincolnshire and 655 (17.3) were in North Lincolnshire. industry, 2017 13.3 • Of the 2,550 Agriculture, forestry & fishing enterprises, 1,965 (77.1%) were in 14 12.4 East Riding of Yorkshire, 25 (1.0%) were in Kingston Upon Hull, 80 (3.1%) were 12 in North East Lincolnshire and 480 (18.85) were in North Lincolnshire. 10 8.4 8.0 7.9 8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.5 % 6 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.3 3.0 4 1.4 1.7 2 0.6 0.6 0

2010-2017 Changes to Enterprises by sector The spider charts below show the relative proportion of industries within each sector for the Humber LEP in the context of all LEPs in England. Identifying changes in the shape of the spider charts from 2010 and 2017 allows for analysis into how particular sectors have seen a relatively large increase or decrease. For the Humber LEP many sectors have remained at a similar relative level, indicating that growth or decline in employment in these sectors is happening at a rate in line with other LEP areas. • The proportion of enterprises in the Humber in Public administration and defence, Transport and storage, and Mining Quarrying and utilities have remained very high relative to other LEP areas. This indicates that any changes to the proportion of enterprises in this sector have been in line with average trends. The Humber would be described as having very high proportions of enterprises in these sectors. • Enterprises in Arts Entertainment and Other services has seen a large increase in relative positions. This either indicates a rapid growth within the Humber LEP at a faster rate than other areas, or a decline in other areas while the proportion of enterprises in this sector in the Humber remains at the same level. • Decreases in relative position can be seen in the proportion of enterprises in Health and Construction while a relative increase can be seen in Manufacturing.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing Agriculture, forestry & fishing (%) (%) Arts, entertainment, recreation 1 Mining, quarrying & utilities Arts, entertainment, recreation 1 Mining, quarrying & utilities & other services (%) (%) & other services (%) (%) Health (%) Manufacturing (%) Health (%) Manufacturing (%) 0.75 0.75

Education (%) 0.5 Construction (%) Education (%) 0.5 Construction (%)

Public administration & 0.25 Public administration & 0.25 Motor trades (%) Motor trades (%) defence (%) defence (%) 0 0 Business administration & Business administration & Wholesale (%) Wholesale (%) support services (%) support services (%)

Professional, scientific & Professional, scientific & Retail (%) Retail (%) technical (%) technical (%)

Property (%) Transport & storage (%) Property (%) Transport & storage (%) Accommodation & food Accommodation & food Financial & insurance (%) Financial & insurance (%) services (%) services (%) Information & communication Information & communication (%) (%)

2017 2010 Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - employment by industry

Industry Percentile Enterprises - Industry percentage, 2017 The profile to the right shows the sectoral composition of enterprises as a proportion relative to the national median – represented by the 0.5 line. In other words, where a sector lies above the 0.5 line then the Humber LEP area has an above average proportion of enterprises in that industry compared to the other LEP areas in England as a whole. Agriculture, forestry & fishing Arts, entertainment, 1 Mining, quarrying & utilities We can see that the Humber LEP area has a high representation of enterprises recreation & other services 0.9 in the following industries: Health 0.8 Manufacturing 0.7 • The proportion of enterprises in Mining, quarrying & utilities industry is 0.6 high compared to England’s other LEP areas, with the Humber LEP area in Education 0.5 Construction 0.4 th the 94 percentile 0.3 Public administration & 0.2 Motor trades defence • The proportion of enterprises in Transport & storage (inc postal) was 0.1 nearly as high, with the Humber LEP area in the 91st percentile. 0 Business administration & Wholesale • Motor trades (89th percentile), Manufacturing (86th percentile), support services Accommodation & food services (83rd percentile), Agriculture, forestry st th th Professional, scientific & & fishing (81 percentile), Construction (75 percentile), Retail (75 Retail technical percentile), Public administration & defence (72nd percentile), Arts, nd Transport & storage (inc entertainment, recreation & other services (72 percentile) and Health Property th postal) (56 percentile) were all above the median. Accommodation & food Financial & insurance services Information & communication

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Source: FAME, Bureau van Dijk (2017)

Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and 198 businesses in the Humber LEP area, 37.9% of which are in Kingston upon Hull motorcycles 172 business in the Humber LEP area, 54.1% of which are in Kingston upon Hull

Source: FAME, Bureau van Dijk (2017)

Transportation and Storage Education 75 businesses in the Humber LEP area, 33.3% of which are in North East Lincolnshire 67 business in the Humber LEP area, 53.7% of which are in Kingston upon Hull

Source: FAME, Bureau van Dijk (2017)

Construction 62 businesses in the Humber LEP area, 40.3% of which are in Kingston upon Hull

Source: FAME, Bureau van Dijk (2017)

Non-UK owned business The graph on the left shows the number of non-UK owned businesses in the Humber LEP local authorities. This illustrates that North East Lincolnshire has the highest number of non-UK owned businesses, with high proportions of Danish, French and American businesses. North Lincolnshire has the least non-UK owned businesses. The graph to the right shows where the businesses from overseas are located within the Humber LEP. The majority of French businesses in the Humber LEP can be found in North East Lincolnshire, as well as all Danish businesses. American-owned businesses are found in both North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire.

Count of Non-UK businesses in the Humber LEP by local authority Count of Non-UK businesses in the Humber LEP by ownership country

50 20 UNITED STATES 18 45 SWITZERLAND 16 SWEDEN 40 SPAIN 14

SOUTH AFRICA 12 35 SINGAPORE 10 SAUDI ARABIA 30 8 RUSSIAN FEDERATION NORWAY 6 25 NETHERLANDS 4 MALAYSIA 20 2 LUXEMBOURG

BELGIUM CANADA ISLANDS CAYMAN CHINA DENMARK FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE ICELAND INDIA IRELAND ITALY JAPAN LUXEMBOURG MALAYSIA NETHERLANDS NORWAY FEDERATION RUSSIAN ARABIA SAUDI SINGAPORE AFRICA SOUTH SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZERLAND STATES UNITED 15 JAPAN AUSTRIA ITALY

10 IRELAND INDIA 5 ICELAND GREECE 0 GERMANY East Riding of Kingston upon North East North Lincolnshire Yorkshire Hull, City of Lincolnshire East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Source: FAME, Bureau van Dijk (2017)

Employees by industry Employees by industry, 2016 70,000 58,000 54,500 Understanding the sectoral composition of an area is a particularly important 60,000 50,000 37,000 consideration for businesses both in terms of agglomeration benefits but also in 30,500 34,000 40,000 25,50022,750 terms of competition. 30,000 20,250 16,000 17,375 18,250 10,375 14,250 20,000 2,3105,325 6,5253,3754,325 • The industries with the greatest number of employees in the Humber LEP area in 10,000 2016 were Manufacturing (58,000 or 15.2%), Health (54,500 or 14.3%) and Retail 0 (37,000 or 9.7%). • Of the 58,000 employees in Manufacturing, 18,000 (31.0%) were in Kingston upon Hull, 16,000 (27.6%) were in East Riding of Yorkshire, 14,000 (24.1%) were in North Lincolnshire and 10,000 (17.2%) were in North East Lincolnshire. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of • Of the 58,000 employees in Health, 18,000 (33.0%) were in Kingston upon Hull, North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire 17,000 (31.2%) were in East Riding of Yorkshire, 10,500 (19.3%) were in North LQ - Humber LEP area, 2016 East Lincolnshire and 9,000 (16.5%) were in North Lincolnshire. Agriculture, forestry &… • Compared to the average proportion of employees in each of these sectors in Arts, entertainment,…2 Mining, quarrying &… Great Britain, the Humber LEP area has greater proportions than average in Health 1.5 Manufacturing Mining, quarrying & utilities; Construction; Motor trades; Wholesale; Retail; Education 1 Construction Transport & storage (inc postal); Public administration & defence; Education; 0.5 and, Health. Public administration &… Motor trades 0 Business… Wholesale

Professional, scientific… Retail

Property Transport & storage… Financial & insurance Accommodation &… Information &…

Humber LEP Great Britain

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Industry Percentile Employees - Industry percentage, 2016 The profile to the right shows the sectoral composition of employees as a proportion relative to the national median – represented by the 0.5 line. In other words, where a sector lies above the 0.5 line then the Humber LEP area has an above average proportion of that industry compared to the other LEP areas in

England as a whole. Agriculture, forestry & Arts, entertainment, fishing Mining, quarrying & We can see that the Humber LEP area has a high representation of employees recreation & other 1 utilities in the following industries: services 0.9 Health 0.8 Manufacturing 0.7 • The proportion of employees in the Agriculture, forestry & fishing industry 0.6 is high compared to England’s other LEP areas, with the Humber LEP area in Education 0.5 Construction th 0.4 the 97 percentile. 0.3 Public administration & 0.2 Motor trades • The proportion of employees in Manufacturing is equally high relative to defence 0.1 other LEP area in England, again sitting in the 97th percentile. 0 Business administration & Wholesale • Motor trades (91st percentile), Transport & Storage (inc Postal) (89th support services percentile), Public administration & defence (83rd percentile), Health (70th Professional, scientific & th Retail percentile), Construction (70 percentile), Mining, quarrying & utilities technical th st (67 percentile) and Wholesale (51 percentile) were all above the median. Transport & storage (inc Property postal) Accommodation & food Financial & insurance services Information & communication

2010-2015 Changes to Employees by sector The spider charts below show the changes in key employment sectors between 2010 and 2015. Since 2015 the BRES source data was extended to include PAYE-based businesses, therefore it is not comparable with the most recent years’ data. Despite this, within the 5 year time period there were still clear changes to the key employment sectors within the Humber LEP. • Information and communication, Financial and Insurance, Property, Professional scientific and technical showed little change, indicating relatively very low resident employment in knowledge-based industries that has not shown signs of change. • Agriculture and Retail saw large decreases in relative position with both sectors employing a high proportion of residents in 2010. By 2015, employment in these sectors was low to very low compared to other LEP areas. This suggests that the proportion of employees in these sectors in the Humber fell at a fast rate that other areas. • Manufacture, Transport and storage remained relatively very high between 2010 and 2015. This shows that these employment sectors are particularly strong in the Humber LEP compared to other LEP areas.

Agriculture, forestry & Agriculture, forestry & fishing fishing Arts, entertainment, 1.0 Mining, quarrying & Arts, entertainment, 1.0 Mining, quarrying & recreation & other… utilities recreation & other… utilities Health Manufacturing Health Manufacturing 0.8 0.8

Education 0.5 Construction Education 0.5 Construction

Public administration & 0.3 Public administration & 0.3 Motor trades Motor trades defence defence 0.0 0.0 Business Business Wholesale Wholesale administration &… administration &…

Professional, scientific Professional, scientific Retail Retail & technical & technical

Property Transport & storage Property Transport & storage Accommodation & Accommodation & Financial & insurance Financial & insurance food services food services Information & Information & communication communication

2010 2015

Employees by industry East Riding of Yorkshire, 2016 • The industries with the greatest number of employees in East Riding of 18 Yorkshire in 2016 were Health (17,000 or 13.9%), Manufacturing (16,000 or 16 13.0 13.9 14 13.0%), and Retail (11,500 or 9.4%). 12 9.4 8.2 10 7.7 6.9

% 6.5 • Compared to the average proportion of employees in each of these sectors in 8 4.9 5.7 5.7 6 4.1 3.9 2.9 2.4 Great Britain, East Riding of Yorkshire has greater proportions than average in 4 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.2 2 Agriculture, forestry & fishing; Mining, quarrying & utilities; Manufacturing; 0 Construction; Motor trades; Transport & storage (inc postal); Accommodation & food services; Public administration & defence; and, Health.

East Riding of Yorkshire Humber LEP Great Britain

LQ - East Riding of Yorkshire, 2016

Agriculture, forestry &… Arts, entertainment,…2 Mining, quarrying &… Health 1.5 Manufacturing Education 1 Construction

Public administration &… 0.5 Motor trades 0 Business administration… Wholesale

Professional, scientific… Retail Property Transport & storage… Financial & insurance Accommodation & food… Information &…

East Riding of Yorkshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Employees by industry Kingston upon Hull, 2016 • The industries with the greatest number of employees in Kingston upon Hull in 18 15.0 15.0 2016 were Health (18,000 or 15.0%), Manufacturing (18,000 or 15.0%), and 16 14 12.5 Business administration & support services (15,000 or 12.5%). 12 10.0 9.6 10 % 8 5.0 • Compared to the average proportion of employees in each of these sectors in 6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.2 3.9 2.1 2.0 Great Britain, Kingston upon Hull has greater proportions than average in 4 1.0 0.8 1.1 2 0.1 Manufacturing; Construction; Motor trades; Wholesale; Retail; Business 0 administration & support services; Education; and Health.

Kingston upon Hull, City of Humber LEP Great Britain

LQ - Kingston upon Hull, 2016

Agriculture, forestry &… Arts, entertainment,…2 Mining, quarrying &… Health 1.5 Manufacturing Education 1 Construction

Public administration &… 0.5 Motor trades 0 Business administration… Wholesale

Professional, scientific… Retail Property Transport & storage… Financial & insurance Accommodation & food… Information &…

Kingston upon Hull, City of Great Britain

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Employees by industry North East Lincolnshire, 2016 • The industries with the greatest number of employees in North East 18 14.8 15.5 Lincolnshire in 2016 were Health (10,500 or 15.5%), Manufacturing (10,000 or 16 14 10.3 10.3 14.8%), and Retail and Education (Both 7,000 or 10.3%). 12 8.9 10 6.6 % 5.9 8 4.4 • Compared to the average proportion of employees in each of these sectors in 6 4.1 3.0 4.1 3.3 4.1 4 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 Great Britain, North Lincolnshire has greater proportions than average in 2 0.3 Manufacturing; Motor trades; Wholesale; Retail; Transport & storage (inc 0 postal); Education; and Health.

North East Lincolnshire Humber LEP Great Britain

LQ - North East Lincolnshire, 2016

Agriculture, forestry &… Arts, entertainment,…2 Mining, quarrying &… Health 1.5 Manufacturing Education 1 Construction

Public administration &… 0.5 Motor trades 0 Business administration… Wholesale

Professional, scientific… Retail Property Transport & storage… Financial & insurance Accommodation & food… Information &…

North East Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Employees by industry North Lincolnshire, 2016 • The industries with the greatest number of employees in North Lincolnshire in 20.0 2016 were Manufacturing (14,000 or 20.0%), Health (9,000 or 12.9%) and 20 Retail (6,500 or 9.3%). 15 12.9 9.3 8.6 % 10 7.9 7.9 • Compared to the average proportion of employees in each of these sectors in 5.4 5.7 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.6 5 2.1 2.9 Great Britain, North Lincolnshire has greater proportions than average in 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 Agriculture, forestry & fishing; Mining, quarrying & utilities; Manufacturing; 0 Construction; Motor trades; and Transport & storage (inc postal).

North Lincolnshire Humber LEP Great Britain

LQ - North Lincolnshire, 2016

Agriculture, forestry &… Arts, entertainment,…2.5 Mining, quarrying &… Health 2 Manufacturing 1.5 Education Construction 1 Public administration &… 0.5 Motor trades 0 Business administration… Wholesale

Professional, scientific… Retail Property Transport & storage… Financial & insurance Accommodation & food… Information &…

North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2017) UK Business Counts - enterprises by industry and employment size band

Occupation level (%) 2007 and 2017 comparison Occupation level 15.2 16 13.8 13.713.0 13.3 14 12.0 12.0 11.3 10.8 The top chart illustrates the occupation level of employees in the Humber LEP 12 10.6 10.6 9.7 9.8 8.9 9.0 9.7 area and how the breakdown differs between 2007 and 2017. Over the decade 10 8.2 7.5

% 8 we can see the proportion of employees in senior occupations increasing. For 6 4 example, managers, directors and senior officials increased from 8.2% in 2007 2 to 9.7% in 2017, professional occupations increased from 13.8% in 2007 to 0 15.2% in 2017, and associate prof & tech occupations increased from 11.3% in 2007 to 12.0% in 2017. Conversely, the proportion in the lower occupation levels decreased over this period. For example, elementary occupations decreased from 13.3% in 2007 to

12.0% in 2017, process, plant and machine operatives decreased from 10.6% Oct 2006-Sep 2007 Oct 2016-Sep 2017 in 2007 to 9.7% in 2017, and sales and customer service occupations decreased from 9.0% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2017. Humber LEP- Occupation profile Humber LEP- Occupation profile The bottom two charts show the occupation profile proportions relative to the (Sept 2007) (Sept 2017) national median – represented by the 0.5 line. In other words, where a sector lies above the 0.5 line then the Humber LEP area has an above average 1: managers, 1: managers, directors and directors and proportion of that occupation level compared to the other LEP areas in England senior officials senior officials 1 1 9: elementary 2: professional 9: elementary 2: professional as a whole. 0.8 0.8 occupations occupations occupations occupations 0.6 0.6 8: process, 8: process, 0.4 Despite the shift from lower occupation levels to higher occupation levels over 0.4 3: associate 3: associate plant and plant and 0.2 prof & tech 0.2 prof & tech the past decade, the Humber LEP area is still under represented in the higher machine machine occupations occupations occupation levels relative the national median. We can see that the top four operatives 0 operatives 0 7: sales and 4: 7: sales and 4: occupation levels (ie. 1: managers, directors and senior officials; 2: customer administrative customer administrative service and secretarial service and secretarial professional occupations; 3: associate prof & tech occupations; and 4: occupations6: caring, occupations occupations6: caring, occupations 5: skilled 5: skilled leisure and leisure and administrative and secretarial occupations) are below the national median. trades trades other service other service occupations occupations occupations occupations

Economic activity rate – aged 16-64 Economic activity rate - aged 16-64, 2007-2017

The economic activity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who 83 were economically active) in East Riding of Yorkshire was 79.0% between

October 2016 and September 2017. This was 0.9 percentage points greater 81 than the average for Great Britain over the same period. Despite dropping from

81.3% in 2015/16, the 2016/17 rate is still 1.2 percentage points greater than 79.3 79 the 77.8% recorded between October 2007 and September 2008. 78.1 79.0 78.1 77.8 The rate in Kingston Upon Hull between October 2016 and September 2017 77.5 77 was 75.7%. This was 2.4 percentage points below the average in Great Britain 76.7 over the same period. Despite being below the national average, the economic 75.7 activity rate has seen significant improvement in the past decade, increasing 75

6.7 percentage points from the 69.0% seen between October 2007 and % September 2008. 73 73.2 The economic activity rate in North East Lincolnshire between October 2016 and September 2017 was 73.2%. This was the lowest recorded across the four 71 authorities and 4.9 percentage points below the average across Great Britain.

Since the 77.5% recorded between October 2007 and September 2008 the 69 69.0 rate has dropped 4.3 percentage points over the following ten year period.

The rate in North Lincolnshire between October 2016 and September 2017 67 was 79.3%. This was the highest rate recorded of the four authorities and 1.2 percentage points above the rate seen in Great Britain in the same year. Over 65 the past ten years the rate has increased 1.2 percentage points from the 78.1% Oct 07- Oct 08- Oct 09- Oct 10- Oct 11- Oct 12- Oct 13- Oct 14- Oct 15- Oct 16- recorded between October 2007 and September 2008. Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2018) Annual Population Survey

Employment rate – aged 16-64 Employment rate - aged 16-64, 2007-2017

Human capital is a key consideration for growth aspirant businesses. Change 80 over time in employment is another indicator that can be analysed to show both inclusion and equality as well as the direction and rate of growth in an area. 78

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in 76.5 76 75.9 work) in East Riding of Yorkshire was 76.5% between October 2016 and 75.6

September 2017. This was 2.0 percentage points greater than the average for 74.5 74 Great Britain over the same period. The rate fell slightly to the 78.0% in 73.7

2015/16, but is still 0.9 percentage points greater than the 75.6% recorded 72.6 between October 2007 and September 2008. 72 71.8 The rate in Kingston Upon Hull between October 2016 and September 2017 70.1 % 70 was 70.1%. This was 4.4 percentage points greater than the average for Great 69.1 Britain over the same period. Like the economic activity rate, the employment rate in the authority has seen dramatic improvement over the past decade, 68 increasing 7.5 percentage points from the 62.6% recorded between October 2007 and September 2008. 66

In North East Lincolnshire the employment rate between October 2016 and 64 September 2017 was 69.1%, which was 5.4 percentage points below the 62.6 average for Great Britain. Despite rising to 72.4% in 2015/16, the employment 62 rate has since dropped and in 2016/17 was 2.7 percentage points below the 71.8% seen between October 2007 and September 2008. 60 Oct 07- Oct 08- Oct 09- Oct 10- Oct 11- Oct 12- Oct 13- Oct 14- Oct 15- Oct 16- In North Lincolnshire the employment rate between October 2016 and Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 September 2017 was 75.9%, which was 1.4 percentage points above the average for Great Britain over the same period. In contrast to North East East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire Lincolnshire, the employment rate in North Lincolnshire jumped 5.4 percentage North Lincolnshire Great Britain points over the last recorded year from 70.5% in 2015/16. Compared to long run trends, the employment rate in 2016/17 is 2.2 percentage points above the Source: ONS (2018) Annual Population Survey 73.7% recorded between October 2007 and September 2008. © 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 49 Unemployment rate – aged 16-64

Unemployment rate – aged 16-64 Unemployment rate - aged 16-64, 2007-2017

As with employment, change over time in unemployment is another indicator 16 that can be analysed to show both the direction and rate of growth in an area.

The unemployment rate (number of unemployed as percentage of the working 14 age population) in East Riding of Yorkshire between October 2016 and September 2017 was 3.1%. This was the lowest of the four authorities over this period and 3.5 percentage points below the average for Great Britain. Despite 12 the low rate in 2016/17, this was 0.3 percentage points greater than the 2.8% seen a decade earlier between October 2007 and September 2008. 10 In Kingston Upon Hull the unemployment rate between October 2016 and 9.2 September 2017 was 7.4%. This was the highest across the four authorities

% 8 and 2.8 percentage points greater than the average in Great Britain seen over 7.4 7.4 the same period. On a positive note, this was the lowest rate recorded in the authority over the past decade, and 1.8 percentage points below the 9.2% 6 5.6 5.6 recorded between October 2007 and September 2008. 5.4 4.6 In North East Lincolnshire the rate between October 2016 and September 4 4.3 2017 was 5.6%, which was 1.0 percentage points above the rate for Great 3.1 Britain in the same period. This was the lowest rate recorded in the authority 2.8 over the past decade, and 1.8 percentage points below the 7.4% recorded 2 between October 2007 and September 2008.

In North Lincolnshire the rate between October 2016 and September 2017 0 Oct 07- Oct 08- Oct 09- Oct 10- Oct 11- Oct 12- Oct 13- Oct 14- Oct 15- Oct 16- was 4.3%, which was 0.3 percentage points below the rate for Great Britain Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 over this period. This was 1.3 percentage points lower than the 5.6% recorded a decade earlier between October 2007 and September 2008. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2018) Annual Population Survey

Total Claimants Job seekers, 2008-2017

The claimant rate (total claimants as a proportion of resident population 10 aged 16-64) in East Riding of Yorkshire was 0.9% in December 2017. This was the only authority in the Humber LEP area that was below the 9 average rate in Great Britain (1.0%). This is the lowest rate seen over the past decade and 1.7 percentage points below the 2.6% seen in December 8 2008. 7 The rate in Kingston Upon Hull was 2.6% in December 2017, which was 6.5 the highest rate of the four authorities in the Humber LEP area and 1.6 6 percentage points above the average seen in Great Britain. Over the past decade the rate has dropped 3.9 percentage points since the 6.5% 5 recorded in December 2008. 4.5 In North East Lincolnshire the claimant rate was 2.0% in December 2017. 4 This was 1.0 percentage points greater than the average rate in Great 3.5

Britain. Over the past decade the rate has dropped 1.5 percentage points 3 2.9 from the 3.5% seen in December 2008. 2.6 2.6 While in North Lincolnshire the rate was 1.0% in December 2017, the 2 2.0 same as the average rate in Great Britain. Over the past decade the rate 1 1.0 has dropped by 2.5 percentage points from the 4.5% recorded in December 0.9 2008. 0 December December December December December December December December December December 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2018) Annual Population Survey

Resident hours worked Hours worked, 2008-2017

In 2017, all four authorities worked more than the mean number of hours 38 worked in Great Britain. 37.4 Of the four authorities in the Humber LEP area, North Lincolnshire worked the most on average at 36.2 hours. This was 3 hours more than the average 37 for Great Britain. 36.2 In East Riding of Yorkshire individuals worked for 33.9 hours a week on 36 average. This was 0.7 hours more than the average in Great Britain. In Kingston Upon Hull individuals worked for 33.4 hours a week on average. This was 0.2 hours more than the average for Great Britain. 35 34.8 In North East Lincolnshire individuals worked 33.3 hours a week on average which was 0.1 hours more than the average across Great Britain. 34.1 34 34.0 33.9 33.9 33.4 33.3 33 33.2

31 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2018) Annual survey of hours and earnings

Resident mean weekly pay (gross) Resident mean weekly pay (£) – gross, 2008-2017

All four authorities had a resident mean weekly pay lower than the £541.20 550 average for Great Britain in 2017. All four authorities also saw mean weekly 541.2 wages increase at a slower rate over the past decade than seen across Great Britain on average. Of the four authorities in the Humber LEP area East Riding of Yorkshire had 500 503.3 the highest weekly pay in 2017 at £503.30, which was £37.90 below the average for Great Britain in that year. Over the past decade, weekly pay 476.7 478.8 increased £39.30 (8.5%) from the £464.00 recorded in 2008. 464.0 450 452.4 Kingston Upon Hull had the lowest weekly pay in 2017 at £399.30, which was 449.9 £141.90 below the average for Great Britain. Since 2008 average weekly pay in the authority has increased from £362.00 in 2008 by £37.30 (10.3%). In North East Lincolnshire mean weekly pay in 2017 was £452.40, which was 402.9 400 £49.50 below the average for Great Britain that year. Since 2008 average 399.3 weekly pay in the authority has increased from £402.90 in 2008 by £49.50 (a 12.3% increase). 362.0 In North Lincolnshire mean weekly pay in 2017 was £478.80, which was 350 £62.40 below the average for Great Britain that year. Over the past decade pay in the authority has increased by £28.90 (6.4%) from the £449.90 recorded in 2008.

300 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2018) Annual survey of hours and earnings

Workplace mean weekly pay (gross) Workplace mean weekly pay (£) – gross, 2008-2017

All four authorities also had a workplace mean weekly pay lower than the 550 £541.20 average for Great Britain in 2017. All four authorities also saw mean 540.8 weekly wages increase at a slower rate over the past decade than seen across 530 Great Britain (13.8%) on average.

510 North Lincolnshire had the highest workplace weekly pay in 2017 of the four 505.5 authorities at £505.50, which was £35.30 below the average for Great Britain. Over the past decade, workplace pay increased £65.50 (14.9%) from the 490 £440.00 recorded in 2008. 475.2 470 In Kingston Upon Hull workplace pay was £465.70 in 2017, which was £75.10 465.7 below the average for Great Britain. Since the £419.50 seen in 2008, workplace pay increased £46.20 (11.0%) over the following decade. 450 449.9 440.0 In East Riding of Yorkshire workplace pay was £449.90 in 2017, which was 430 £90.90 below the average seen in Great Britain the same year. Over the past 419.5 decade, workplace pay increased £49.70 (12.4%) from the £400.20 recorded in 415.3 410 2008. 407.6 400.2 In North East Lincolnshire workplace pay was £407.60 in 2017, which was 390 £133.20 below the average in Great Britain. Since the £415.30 seen in the authority in 2008, workplace pay has decreased £7.70 (1.9%) over the 370 following decade.

350 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Great Britain

Source: ONS (2018) Annual survey of hours and earnings

Total GVA GVA: All sectors in Humber LEP area (£m), 2009-2015

Gross Value Added (GVA) allows us to compare the different regions in the 6,500 country in terms of the value they are contributing to the UK economy. 6,000 5,500 • Total GVA in the Humber LEP area increased from £17,519m in 2009 to 5,000 £17,801m in 2015, an increase of £282m or 1.6%. 4,500 4,000 • Total GVA in the East Riding of Yorkshire increased from £5,653m to 3,500 £5,990m over the same period. This represents an increase of £337m or 3,000 6.0%. As a proportion of total GVA in the Humber LEP area East Riding of 2,500 Yorkshire increased from 32.3% in 2009 to 33.6% in 2015. 2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

• In Kingston upon Hull total GVA increased from £4,917m in 2009 to East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of £5,129m in 2015, representing an increase of £212m or 4.3%. As a North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire proportion of total GVA in the Humber LEP area Kingston Upon Hull increased from 28.1% in 2009 to 28.8% in 2015. 2009 2015 • In North Lincolnshire total GVA decreased from £3,969m in 2009 to £3,415 in 2015, representing a decrease of £554m or -14.0%. As a proportion of total GVA in the Humber LEP area North Lincolnshire decreased from 22.7% in 2009 to 19.2% in 2015. 17.0% 18.4% • In North East Lincolnshire total GVA increased from £2,980m in 2009 to 32.3% 33.6% £3,267m in 2015, representing an increase of £287m or 9.6%. As a proportion of total GVA in the Humber LEP area North East Lincolnshire 22.7% 19.2% increased from 17.0% in 2009 to 18.4% in 2015.

28.1% 28.8%

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

Total GVA GVA: All sectors (£m) 22,000 The charts to the right illustrate how total GVA in the four local authorities in the Humber LEP 21,260 area compare to selection of other major cities in the North of England. 20,000 18,547 The total GVA generated in the four local authorities in the Humber LEP area fell short of 18,000 17,030 some of the other cities, including: Leeds (£21,260m), Manchester (£17,030m), Sheffield 16,000 (£11,300m), Liverpool (£10,907m) and Bradford (£9,504m). 14,000 East Riding of Yorkshire (£5,990m) generated more total GVA than Doncaster (£5,148m), 13,586 12,000 York (£5,068m) and Scarborough (£2,098m). 10,837 11,300 10,000 10,907 Kingston Upon Hull (£5,129m) generated slightly less total GVA than Doncaster (£5,148m), 10,160 9,504 but more than York (£5,068m) and Scarborough (£2,098m). 8,000 8,593 While North Lincolnshire (£3,415m) and North East Lincolnshire (£3,267m) generated 5,653 5,990 6,000 5,148 less total GVA compared to all comparator cities, with the exception of Scarborough 4,917 4,000 4,491 5,068 (£2,098m) 3,969 3,415 2,980 3,267 2,000 When observing the growth in total GVA over this period, the four local authorities in the 1,826 2,098 Humber LEP lagged behind the majority of the comparators. North East Lincolnshire (9.6%), 0 East Riding of Yorkshire (6.0%) and Kingston Upon Hull (4.3%) did have growth greater than 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Liverpool (0.6%). While North Lincolnshire was the only are to have negative growth (- East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North Lincolnshire 14.0%) North East Lincolnshire Sheffield Bradford Liverpool Manchester Doncaster York Leeds Scarborough Total GVA % change, 2009 – 2015 30% 25.3% 20.8% 20% 14.9% 14.6% 12.8% 11.2% 10.6% 9.6% 10% 6.0% 4.3% 0.6% 0%

-10%

-20% -14.0%

5,833 5,815 5,990 • Total GVA in East Riding of Yorkshire increased from £5,653m in 2009 to 6,000 5,712 5,653 193 £5,990m in 2015, representing an increase of £337m or 6.0%. 5,521 5,379 202 187 194 205 166 • The largest contributors to the 2015 total were Public admin, education & 175 1,281 health (£1,281m), Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£1,272m) and 5,000 1,186 1,195 1,143 1,223 1,225 Manufacturing (£939m). 1,197

369 374 446 • Distribution, transport, accom & food saw the biggest rise in value (£m) over 312 330 4,000 357 this period, increasing from £595m in 2009 to £739m in 2015, an increase of 355 820 832 £278m or 28.0%. 769 819 871 749 772 84 87 • The largest proportional increase was in Business services which increased 142 70 153 92 115 3,000 124 93 164 136 from £312m in 2009 to £446 in 2015, an increase of £134m or 42.9%. 120 90 156 994 1,210 1,272 • The largest fall in value over the period was in Manufacturing which 1,093 1,108 1,228 decreased from £1,217m in 2009 to £939m in 2015, a fall of £278m or - 2,000 1,098 295 22.8%. 315 321 363 354 390 • The largest fall in proportional terms was Financial & insurance which 344 1,000 1,217 999 decreased from £142m in 2009 to £87m in 2015, a fall of £55m or -38.7%. 954 1,026 933 939 822

262 148 131 192 208 175 173 201 253 241 259 281 270 261 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m) GVA: All sectors (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• As a proportion of total GVA in East Riding of Yorkshire in 2015, the 100 largest contributions were from Public admin, education & health (21.4%), 3.4 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 Distribution, transport, accomm & food (21.2%) and Manufacturing 90 (15.7%). 20.2 22.2 22.3 21.4 20.3 20.6 21.4 • Distribution, transport, accomm & food saw the greatest increase as a 80 5.5 6.3 6.4 proportion of Total GVA, growing from 17.6% in 2009 to 21.2% in 2015, 6.5 6.6 5.8 7.4 representing an increase of 3.7 percentage points. 70 13.6 14.3 14.1 15.0 • Manufacturing saw the largest decline, falling from 21.5% of Total GVA in 60 13.6 14.4 13.9 2.5 1.4 2009 to 15.7% in 2015, or -5.9 percentage points. 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.6 2.2 1.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.9 1.9 % 50

17.6 19.8 19.4 20.7 21.1 40 20.4 21.2

5.2 30 6.6 5.5 5.5 6.4 6.1 6.5

20 21.5 18.0 17.1 17.3 15.3 16.0 15.7 10 4.6 2.7 2.4 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.4 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• Total GVA in Kingston Upon Hull increased from £4,917m in 2009 to £5,129m in 2015, representing an increase of £212m or 4.3%. 5,129 5,029 5,004 5,000 4,917 4,913 121 4,772 126 119 • The largest contributors to the 2015 total were Manufacturing (£1,342m), 169 4,669 133 117 Public admin, education & health (£1,255m) and Distribution, transport, 126 1,255 accomm & food (£987m). 1,244 1,278 1,137 1,303 1,275 • ‘Business services’ made the largest contribution to this increase over the 4,000 1,152

period, rising from £342m in 2009 to £463m in 2015, representing an 463 342 423 407 increase of £121m or 35.4%. 389 351 370 324 370 3,000 370 371 112 332 382 84 • The largest proportional increase was seen in Construction which increased 98 364 94 74 73 73 73 85 74 from £215m in 2009 to £329m in 2015, an increase of £114m or 53.0%. 93 7879 84 907 863 932 987 • The largest fall in value terms over this period was in Manufacturing which 847 803 901 decreased from £1,432m in 2009 to £1,342m in 2015, representing a fall of 2,000 215 274 £90m or -6.3%. 259 298 308 329 262 • The largest proportional decrease was seen in Production which decreased 1,000 from £177m in 2009 to £106m in 2015, a decrease of £72m or -40.7%. 1,432 1,456 1,293 1,203 1,348 1,334 1,342

177 0 2 1422 1211 981 911 1062 1052 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m) GVA: All sectors (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• The largest components of total GVA in Kingston Upon Hull in 2015 were 100 2.4 2.4 Manufacturing (26.2%), Public admin, education & health (24.5%) and 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 Distribution, transport, accomm & food (19.2%). 90 • Business services saw the greatest increase as a proportion of total GVA, 23.1 24.7 26.7 26.5 24.7 25.5 24.5 increasing from 7.0% in 2009 to 9.0%, or 2.0 percentage points. 80

• While Manufacturing saw the largest decrease as a proportion of total GVA, 70 7.0 7.5 8.4 8.1 9.0 falling from 29.1% in 2009 to 26.7%, or -3.0 percentage points. 7.8 7.9 6.6 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.2 60 2.3 7.6 7.8 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7

% 50 18.4 18.1 17.2 18.6 19.2 18.9 16.3 40 4.4 5.5 5.4 6.1 6.2 30 5.5 6.4

20 29.1 27.7 25.2 27.4 29.0 26.7 26.2 10

3.6 3.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.02.5 0.02.0 0.01.8 0.02.1 0.02.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• Total GVA in North Lincolnshire decreased from £3,969m in 2009 to 4,500 £3,415m in 2015, representing a decrease of £554m or -14.0%. 3,969 4,000 • The largest contributors to the 2015 total were Manufacturing (£899m), 80 3,727 3,751 3,573 Distribution, transport, accom & food (£735m) and Public admin, 69 60 485 3,409 3,415 education & health (£579m). 3,500 79 512 513 3,251 173 82 88 548 83 • The largest increase in value over this period was in Construction which 158 3,000 327 164 564 579 increased from £213m in 2009 to £317m in 2015, an increase of £104m or 544 2263 305 307 190 48.8%. This was also the largest proportional increase across sectors in the 1946 203 2448 329 200 authority. 2,500 215 763 2341 351 348 757 724 334 • The largest decrease in value terms was seen in Manufacturing which 2036 1835 2,000 615 2737 decreased from £1,550m in 2009 to £899m in 2015, a decrease of £651m or 213 270 693 259 577 735 -42.0%. 282 1,500 • The largest proportional decrease was seen in Financial & insurance which 294 346 317 decreased from £63m in 2009 to £35m in 2015, a fall of £28m or -44.4%. 1,000 1,550 1,301 1,403 1,187 884 890 899 500

238 228 193 211 181 163 142 0 55 59 59 67 75 61 54 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m) GVA: All sectors (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• The largest components of total GVA in North Lincolnshire in 2015 were 100 2.00.0 1.90.0 1.6 2.20.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 Manufacturing (26.3%), Distribution, transport, accomm & food (21.5%) 2.6 2.6 and Public admin, education & health (17.0%) 12.2 13.7 13.7 90 15.3 16.7 16.5 17.0

• Public admin, education & health saw the largest increase as a proportion of 4.4 4.4 4.2 80 5.3 total GVA, increasing from 12.2% in 2009 to 17.0% in 2015, a 4.7 6.6 6.0 5.9 8.2 8.2 8.2 percentage point increase. 1.6 9.2 0.6 1.3 0.51.2 70 0.6 10.3 10.3 10.2 • Manufacturing saw the greatest decline as a proportion of total GVA, 0.61.1 1.1 0.61.1 0.51.0 19.2 0.8 decreasing from 39.1% in 2009 to 26.3% in 2015, a reduction of -12.7 60 20.3 19.3 17.2 percentage points. 17.7 20.3 21.5

% 50 5.4 7.2 6.9 7.9 40 9.0 10.1 9.3

30 39.1 34.9 37.4 33.2 27.2 20 26.1 26.3

6.0 6.1 5.1 5.9 5.6 4.8 4.2 0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.6 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: All sectors (£m) GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m)

GVA: Production (£m) GVA: Manufacturing (£m)

GVA: Construction (£m) GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m)

GVA: Info & comms (£m) GVA: Financial & insurance (£m)

GVA: Real estate (£m) GVA: Business services (£m)

GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m) GVA: Other services and household activites (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• Total GVA in North East Lincolnshire increased from £2,980m in 2009 to 3,500 £3,267m in 2015, representing an increase of £287m or 9.6%. 3,253 3,267 83 83 2,980 • The largest contributors to the 2015 total were Manufacturing (£792m), 2,917 3,000 2,836 Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£739m), and Public admin, 119 2,771 2,809 98 640 668 79 education & health (£668m). 84 89 597 2,500 608 • Distribution, transport, accom & food saw the biggest rise in value (£m) over 616 588 635 204 205 this period, increasing from £595m in 2009 to £739m in 2015, an increase of 172 347 336 £144m or 24.2%. 171 212 2,000 188 178 72 61 312 39 36 • There was also a significant increase in Production which increased from 299 321 74 295 314 £41m in 2009 to £164m in 2015, an increase of £123m or 300.0%. This was 45 41 57 43 32 41 44 the biggest proportional increase across the sectors in the authority. 1,500 43 40 711 739 595 576 • Manufacturing saw the largest fall in value (£m), decreasing from £879m in 571 536 605 180 162 2009 to £792m in 2015, a fall of £87m or -9.9%. 1,000 132 153 152 168 158 • The largest proportional decrease was seen in Other services and household activities which decreased from £119m in 2009 to £83m in 2015’ 788 792 500 879 representing a decrease of £36m or -30.3%. 744 806 747 722

171 164 0 1441 1648 1251 539 866 17 22 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m) GVA: All sectors (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

• The largest components of total GVA in North East Lincolnshire in 2015 100 were Manufacturing (24.2%), Distribution, transport, accomm & food 4.0 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.5 (22.6%) and Public admin, education & health (20.4%). 90 19.7 20.0 21.2 21.7 20.8 20.4 • Production saw the largest increase as a proportion of total GVA, increasing 22.6 from1.4% in 2009 to 5.0% in 2015, a 3.6 percentage point increase. 80 6.3 6.3 5.8 6.8 6.0 7.3 • Manufacturing saw the greatest decline as proportion of total GVA, falling 70 6.3 10.7 from 29.5% of total GVA in 2009 to 24.2% in 2015, a reduction of -5.3 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.0 percentage points. 60 2.2 1.9 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.1 2.0 1.41.5 1.5

% 50 20.0 20.3 21.9 22.6 20.6 19.1 20.7 40

4.4 5.4 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 30 5.4

20 24.2 24.2 29.5 26.8 28.4 26.6 24.8 10

5.3 5.0 2.9 0 0.51.4 0.61.7 0.41.8 0.31.9 0.2 0.5 0.7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GVA: Agri, foresty & fishing (£m) GVA: Production (£m)

GVA: Manufacturing (£m) GVA: Construction (£m)

GVA: Distribution, transport, accomm & food (£m) GVA: Info & comms (£m)

GVA: Financial & insurance (£m) GVA: Real estate (£m)

GVA: Business services (£m) GVA: Public admin, education & health (£m)

GVA: Other services and household activites (£m)

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

GVA per job GVA per job: All sectors (£)

GVA per filled job can be used as a measure of labour productivity. A higher 60,000 level of productivity means that a higher level of output is being produced per unit of labour input ,which is fundamental to increasing economic growth.

• Average GVA per job in East Riding of Yorkshire increased from £48,763 55,000 in 2009 to £50,724 in 2015, an increase of £1,960 or 4.0% • In North Lincolnshire GVA per job decreased from £58,391 in 2009 to

£48,945 in 2015, a decrease of £9,446 or -16.2%. 50,000 • In North East Lincolnshire GVA per job increased from £43,349 in 2009 to £49,256 in 2015, an increase of 5,907 or 13.6%.

• In Kingston upon Hull GVA per job increased from £42,181 in 2009 to 45,000 £43,350 in 2015, an increase of £1,169 or 2.8%.

40,000

35,000

30,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

East Riding of Yorkshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull, City of

Source: ONS (2017) Regional Gross Value Added (Income Aproach) by Local Authority in the UK

Total GVA GVA per job, 2009 - 2015

The charts to the right illustrate how total GVA per job in the four local 60,000 58,391 authorities in the Humber LEP area compares to selection of other major cities

55,000

50,735

50,724

49,470

49,454 49,256

in the North of England. 49,213

48,945

48,805

48,763 47,399

50,000 47,389

46,751

45,310

44,239

43,915

43,912 43,350

East Riding of Yorkshire (£50,724) performed well against the comparator 43,349

43,250 42,796

45,000 42,181 cities when looking at GVA per head in 2015. Only Scarborough (£50,735) had 41,278 a GVA per head greater. However, growth in GVA per head has only been 40,000 37,817 4.0% which was the fourth lowest of the 12 areas observed. 35,000 In North East Lincolnshire (£49,256) GVA per job in 2015 was the fifth 30,000 highest of the 12 areas observed. Only lower than Scarborough (£50,735), Leeds (£49,470) and York (49,454) of the comparators. Between 2009 – 2015 GVA per head in North East Lincolnshire increased by 13.6%, which was the third greatest increase of the 12 areas observed. In North Lincolnshire GVA per job in 2015 was £48,945. This was greater than Manchester (48,805), Liverpool (£47,389), Sheffield (£45,310) and Doncaster (42,796). North Lincolnshire (-16.2%) was the only one of the 12 2009 2015 areas observed that had a decrease in GVA per head between 2009 and 2015. GVA per job % change, 2009 - 2015 In Kingston Upon Hull (£43,350) GVA per job in 2015 was the second lowest 20% 15.5% of the 12 areas observed. Only Doncaster (£42,796) had a lower GVA per job. 14.3% 13.6% 13.2% 11.2% 11.1% 9.8% Growth of 2.8% between 2009 and 2015 meant it had the third lowest growth of 10% 5.8% 4.0% the 12 areas observed. 2.8% 0% 0.0% -10%

-20% -16.2%

GVA per hour worked GVA per hour worked By diving the total GVA for each area by the total number of hours worked 200.00 within each authority, the GVA per hour worked has been calculated and 178.81 illustrated in the bar chart to the right. 180.00 • Within the Humber LEP area, East Riding of Yorkshire achieves the highest GVA per hour worked at £178.81. This ranks as very high compared to the 160.00 155.42 national average of £131.78. • The lowest GVA per hour worked is found in North East Lincolnshire, closely 140.00 131.78 followed by North Lincolnshire, with values of £96.66 and £96.74 respectively. Both areas rank in the middle 20% of districts nationally. 120.00

• The district in England with the highest GVA per hour worked is 96.66 96.74

£ 100.00 Westminster, with a value of £1500.64. The lowest GVA per hour worked is £22.04 in West Somerset. 80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00 East Riding of Kingston upon North East North England Yorkshire Hull, City of Lincolnshire Lincolnshire

GVA per job vs Economically active rate The scatter graph to the right shows the relationship between GVA per job and the economically active rate among adults aged 16-64 for all districts in England. 100 The figures have been converted into percentile ranks to normalise the data, allowing for benchmarking and comparison between indicators that have different units. 80 • The correlation coefficient for these two indicators is 0.28, indicating a weak but positive correlation between the two indicators, therefore a higher economic

activity is likely to correlate with a high GVA per job. West Lindsey

• The local authorities of the Humber LEP all sit in the bottom left quadrant, 60 showing a below average economic activity and GVA per job compared to the rest of the country East Lindsey • While North Lincolnshire has the highest proportion of adults aged 16-64 who are Selby Ryedale economically active at 79.3% it is East Riding of Yorkshire that achieves the 40 highest GVA per job (£50,723.59). Scarborough GVA per job: All sectors (£) (£) sectorsAll job: per GVA East Riding of Yorkshire • North East Lincolnshire has a very low economically active rate relative to all York other English districts at 73.2%, however it achieves a higher GVA per job than North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull. 20

Bassetlaw Kingston upon Hull Doncaster 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Economically active rate: 16-64

GVA per job vs Knowledge workers The scatter graph to the right shows the relationship between GVA per job and the proportion of people employed in the knowledge sector. 100 The figures have been converted into percentile ranks to normalise the data, allowing for benchmarking and comparison between indicators that have different units. 80 • The correlation coefficient for these two variables is 0.49, highlighting a moderate positive correlation. This suggests that a higher proportion of knowledge workers relates to a higher GVA per job. West Lindsey • All four areas sit in the bottom left quadrant of the chart illustrating low levels of 60 employment in the knowledge sector and low GVA per job compared to the rest of England. East Lindsey Selby • East Riding of Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire all have Ryedale very low proportions of knowledge workers by national standards, with 40 Scarborough

proportions below 12%. East Riding of Yorkshire GVA per job: All sectors (£) (£) sectorsAll job: per GVA • Kingston upon Hull has 15.8% of workers employed in knowledge sector jobs York which is just below the national average, however Kingston upon Hull also has North East Lincolnshire the lowest GVA per job of the Humber LEP local authorities. 20 North Lincolnshire

Bassetlaw

Doncaster Kingston upon Hull 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Employ: Knowldege %

GVA per job vs Business formation rate The scatter graph to the right shows the relationship between business formation rate and GVA per job for all English districts. 100 The figures have been converted into percentile ranks to normalise the data, allowing for benchmarking and comparison between indicators that have different units. 80 • The correlation coefficient is -0.03. The weak relationship between business formation and GVA shows that an increase in the business formation rate will not likely lead to an increase in GVA as there are many other variables likely to influence this. West Lindsey 60 • The four Humber LEP areas sit within the bottom right quadrant of the chart, showing that despite above average business formation rates, GVA per job is East Lindsey still below the national average. Selby Ryedale • Of the Humber LEP local authorities, North East Lincolnshire has the highest 40

business formation rate at 19.3%, indicating a very strong culture of enterprise Scarborough compared to the national average. (£) sectorsAll job: per GVA East Riding of Yorkshire York • East Riding of Yorkshire has a high business formation rate relative to the North East Lincolnshire national average and the highest GVA per job of the four areas. 20 North Lincolnshire

• While North Lincolnshire has the lowest business formation rate of the four areas Bassetlaw at 12.69% (sitting close to the national average), Kingston upon Hull has a lower GVA per job. Doncaster 0 0 20 40 60 Kingston80 upon Hull 100 Business formation rate

Based on our research and experience of working with businesses across our international network, we identified the key criteria that influence business location decisions around the characteristics of an area: economic performance; access to people and skills; and environmental and infrastructure. The criteria were equally weighted to provide a composite score.

The 324 English local authority areas were assessed against these three factors to determine their attractiveness to inward investors.

National rank- BLI score

Rank District Region Score 1 Westminster London 165.03 2 Camden London 143.55 3 Tower Hamlets London 141.57 4 Islington London 136.34 5 Southwark London 130.01 6 Cambridge East of England 127.57 7 Lambeth London 127.51 8 South Cambridgeshire East of England 126.54 9 Hillingdon London 125.5 10 Hammersmith & Fulham London 124.13

175 East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber 97.55 241 Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire and Humber 92.79 278 North Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 90.14 280 North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 89.93

East Riding of Yorkshire is the highest performing area in the Humber LEP on the overall BLI score, ranking 175 out of 324 authorities, which places it in the middle 20% of local authorities nationally. Kington upon Hull ranks 241, and therefore ranking in the bottom 40% of authorities, whilst North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire both perform in the bottom 20%.

National rank- Economic performance

Rank District Region Score

1 Westminster, City of London 227.44

2 Tower Hamlets London 220.68

3 Islington London 181.65

4 Camden London 177.09

5 Southwark London 163.37

6 Lambeth London 155.96

7 Hackney London 155.49

8 Hillingdon London 145.97

9 Wokingham South East 145.02

10 Watford East of England 144.68 Kingston upon Hull has the best performance on the Economic Performance composite out of the four areas, placing it in the middle 20% nationally, whilst the remaining three areas perform in the 184 Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire and Humber 92.82 bottom 40% nationally. The spider chart shows how each of the areas perform on the Economic performance component 205 North Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 90.53 measures, relative to the national median. Kingston upon Hull stands out from the rest of the LEP authorities as having a strong level of business and enterprise (as measured by business formation 245 East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber 86.25 rates and growth in businesses) . It also performs very well on the ‘Economic scale’ score, which is inline with East Riding of Yorkshire performance. North Lincolnshire is the strongest performer on 259 North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 84.08 our ‘Productivity’ score, ranking in the top 40% nationally.

National rank- People and skills Rank District Region Score

1 Wandsworth London 122.28 2 Richmond-upon-Thames London 121.5 3 Lambeth London 120.8 4 Winchester South East 118.41 5 St Albans East of England 116.31 6 Hammersmith and Fulham London 115.24 7 Chiltern South East 115.12 8 South Oxfordshire South East 115.03 9 Windsor and Maidenhead South East 114.79

10 Oxford South East 114.59

115 East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber 103.79 East Riding of Yorkshire performs particularly well out of the Humber LEP authorities on our People and Skills score, ranking in the top 40% nationally. The spider chart shows how each of the areas perform on the People and Skills component 254 North Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 93.31 measures, relative to the national median (50 line). All areas perform well on our ‘Economically Active’ score, indicating high levels of economically active residents. However, performance on the 293 North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 88.19 other measures is much weaker, with the exception of East Riding of Yorkshire which performance above average on our ‘Labour Market’ score, indicating high levels of employment, and around 298 Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire and Humber 86.66 average for skills and qualifications.

National rank- Environment & infrastructure

Rank District Region Score

1 Westminster, City of London 125.29

2 Camden London 118.61

3 Cambridge East of England 116.86

4 Kensington and Chelsea London 112.94

5 South Cambridgeshire East of England 111.56

6 Richmond-upon-Thames London 111.04

7 Islington London 110.46

8 Hillingdon London 110.13

9 Hammersmith and Fulham London 109.52

10 Tower Hamlets London 109.33 All areas in the Humber LEP perform quite weakly on this the Environment & Infrastructure score, with three areas ranking in the bottom 20% nationally and East Riding of Yorkshire in the bottom 40%. 256 East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber 96.36 The spider chart shows how each of the areas perform on the Environment & Infrastructure component measures, relative to the national median (50 line). Kingston upon Hull performs well on 275 Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire and Humber 95.58 ‘broadband’ and ‘travel connectivity’ and ‘innovation’, the latter reflecting high levels of patent applications. However, its performance on quality of life is second lowest in country which really 278 North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 95.39 pulls down its overall performance on the composite measure. By contrast, East Riding of Yorkshire performs in the top 40% nationally, indicating above average performance on crime levels, life 321 North Lincolnshire Yorkshire and Humber 91.84 expectancy, GCSE results and natural environment.

Population chart (2016)

170,800 Total population 337,700 • The Humber LEP is small compared to some of the other LEP’s in terms of population. In 2016 the total population in the Humber LEP stood at 927,900 which 159,100 is low relative to other LEP, ranking 24th out of the 38 LEPs. • The pie chart illustrates that within the LEP, East Riding of Yorkshire has the

largest population at 337,700, representing 36% of the total LEP population. By 260,200 contrast, North Lincolnshire has the smallest population of the 4 local authority areas, at 170,800, representing 18% of the total Humber LEP population. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Population density Population density (2016) • The map to the right shows the population density across the LEP area, with a darker shade of purple indicating a higher density of people. • This illustrates that Kingston upon Hull has the highest population density at 36 people per hectare, whilst East Riding of Yorkshire has the lowest population density at 1 person per hectare. • This difference in density also reflects the rural/urban nature of the local authority areas. East Riding of Yorkshire has 93% of its population classified as rural, whilst Kingston upon Hull has 100% of the population classified as urban.

Source: ONS, Annual mid-year population estimates (2016)

Total Population Total Population

Information on general population trends is essential 400000 to understanding the changing profile of a specific area, whether this is at a national, regional or local 350000 authority level. Population growth usually results in increasing levels of need for example, in relation to housing, social care and education provision. 300000 • The line graph illustrates population change from 2006 to 2016 and projected population growth until 250000 2028 200000 • Over the last decade North Lincolnshire has seen its population grow by 6%, the highest rate of the four areas. North East Lincolnshire has seen the 150000 smallest rate of population growth at 0.34% • The total population within the Humber LEP has 100000 grown by 2.66% since 2006. Nationally, the total population has grown by 8.44% over the same time 50000 period

• Population projections suggest that East Riding of 0 Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Yorkshire will see the highest increase in total Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec population at 5% from 2016 to 2028, while North 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 East Lincolnshire will see an increase of just 1.44% East Riding of Yorkshire - Population count East Riding of Yorkshire - Population projection • The projected rate of population increase for the Kingston upon Hull, City of - Population count Kingston upon Hull, City of - Population projection Humber LEP area is 3.57% between 2016-2028, North East Lincolnshire - Population count North East Lincolnshire - Population projection while the rate for the whole of England is 10.2% North Lincolnshire - Population count North Lincolnshire - Population projection

Source: ONS, Sub-national population projections (2014 base) & Mid year population estimates (2016)

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of • The largest age band in East Riding of Yorkshire is age 45-64 • The population aged 25-44 makes up the highest proportion of total population in Kingston upon Hull • Between 2006 and 2016, the population aged 65+ saw an increase of 31.9%, while the population aged 24-44 saw a 15.8% decrease • Over the last decade, the population aged 45-64 has seen the highest growth at 9.49%. However, there has been a decrease of 15.8% in the population aged 15-24 • It is projected that the population aged 65+ will continue to see the largest percentage increase over the next decade, growing by a further 25%. Conversely, the population • The number of residents aged 65+ in Kingston upon Hull is projected to increase by aged 45-64 is expected to see a 7.02% decrease 22.8%, while those aged 45-64 are expected to decrease by 5.21%

Population by age bands (count) Population by age bands (count)

120000 80000 70000 100000 60000 80000 50000 60000 40000 30000 40000 20000 20000 10000 0 0

Age: 0-14 Age: 15-24 Age: 25-44 Age: 0-14 Age: 15-24 Age: 25-44 Age: 45-64 Age: 65 and over Projected Pop: 0-14 Age: 45-64 Age: 65 and over Projected Pop: 0-14 Projected Pop: 15-24 Projected Pop: 25-44 Projected Pop: 45-64 Projected Pop: 15-24 Projected Pop: 25-44 Projected Pop: 45-64 Projected Pop: 65+ Projected Pop: 65+

Source: ONS, Sub-national population projections (2014 base) & Mid year population estimates (2016)

North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire • Currently, the largest proportion of the population in North East Lincolnshire are aged 45- • The population aged 45-64 has remained the largest age band since 2006 64 • From 2006 to 2016 the population aged 65+ has seen the largest increase in North • The population aged 65+ in North East Lincolnshire has seen the highest growth since Lincolnshire, increasing by 26.4%. Over the same time period the population aged 25-44 2006, increasing by 16.2%, while the population aged 15-24 has seen a decrease of has decreased by 4.64%. 15.9% • Projections from 2016 to 2028 suggest that the population aged 65+ will continue to • By 2028 it is projected that the population aged 65+ will continue to increase by 21.7%, increase by a further 27.8%. However the population of 45-64 will decrease by 7.35%. the population aged 45-64 will decrease by 9.29%, and the population aged 25-44 will remain relatively similar.

Population by age bands (count) Population by age bands (count) 60000 45000 40000 50000

35000 40000 30000 25000 30000

20000 20000 15000 10000 10000

5000 0 0

Ethnicity 100% Understanding the extent of ethnic diversity is important both for being able to target policies at different communities and for the impact on community cohesion and involvement. 95% • The bar chart to the right shows the proportional make up residents within the four local authority areas by main ethnic group compared to the Humber LEP and England average. 90% • Of the fours local authority areas, Kingston upon Hull has the largest non- white population (5.8%), although this is much lower than the national average (14.6%), indicating relatively low ethnic diversity within the Humber LEP by national standards. 85% • Of the non-white population, North Lincolnshire has the highest proportion of Asian/Asian British at 2.7%, followed closely by Kingston upon Hull at 2.5%. By comparison, the national average is 7.8%. 80% • Kingston upon Hull has the highest proportion of Black/African/Caribbean/Black British of the four authority areas (1.2%), as well as the highest proportion of Mixed/multiple ethnic groups (1.3%), although these are still much lower than national averages. 75% East Riding of North East North Kingston Humber LEP England Yorkshire Lincolnshire Lincolnshire upon Hull, City of

White Mixed/multiple ethnic groups Asian/Asian British Black/African/Caribbean/Black British Other ethnic group

Source: Census (2011)

Passports Held Proportion of residents who hold a non-United Kingdom passport 4.0 The table below shows the proportion of residents in the Humber LEP who hold a UK passport, no passport, or a non-UK passport, compared to the national average.

• All four local authorities in the Humber LEP have a below-average proportion of residents 3.5 who hold a non-UK passport. However there is overall a high proportion of residents who hold no passport. • East Rising of Yorkshire has the highest proportion of residents who own a UK passport 3.0 at 78.8% and the lowest proportion of resident holding no passport or a non-UK passport.

• Kingston upon Hull has the highest proportion of residents with no passport (26.9%) or a 2.5 non-UK passport (5.8%). The bar chart to the right shows which passports are held by residents who have a non-UK

passport. % 2.0 • Nationally, the highest proportion of residents who do not hold a UK passport hold passports from EU countries (3.6%) and Middle East and Asia (2.1%). 1.5 • Within the Humber LEP all local authorities have a lower than average proportion of residents who hold passports from countries other than the UK, however within Kingston upon Hull 3.7% of residents hold an EU passport, higher than the national average. 1.0

Proportion of residents Proportion of residents 0.5 Proportion of residents who hold a UK who hold a non-UK who hold No Passport Passport passport 0.0 East Riding of Yorkshire 78.8 19.2 2.0 Europe: Middle Africa Republic North Antarctica Europe: South Central British EU East and of Ireland America and Non EU America America Overseas Kingston upon Hull, City of 67.3 26.9 5.8 countries Asia and the Oceania countries Territories Caribbean North East Lincolnshire 71.6 26.1 2.3 East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire 70.4 25.6 4.0 North Lincolnshire England England 75.8 16.5 7.7

Source: Census (2011)

Proportion of residents aged three and over whose main language is English

100 English as a main Language 99 The bar chart to the right shows the proportion of residents in each of the 98 Humber LEP districts who have English as their main language, compared 97 to the English average. 96

• Nationally, the average proportion of residents over the age of three % 95 whose main language is English is 92%. All four districts of the Humber 94 LEP have proportions higher than this. 93 • Of the four districts East Riding of Yorkshire has the highest proportion 92 of residents whose main language is English at 98.4%, while Kingston 91 upon Hull has the lowest proportion at 93.5%. 90 East Riding of Kingston upon North East North Lincolnshire England The table to the right shows the proportion of residents who have Yorkshire Hull, City of Lincolnshire languages other than English as their main language. • Generally, all four areas have very low proportions of languages other Proportion of residents aged three and over whose main language is not English than English compared the national averages. East Riding Kingston upon North East North England • Kingston upon Hull has a higher than national average proportion of of Yorkshire Hull, City of Lincolnshire Lincolnshire residents whose main language is EU European (3.2%), Non-EU French 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 European (0.5%), Arabic (0.4%), West/Central Asian (0.5%) or East Portuguese 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 Asian (0.8%). Spanish 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 Other European language (EU) 2.3 • All four districts have a very low representation of residents whose main 0.9 3.2 1.2 2.5 Other European language (non EU) 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 language is French, Spanish, or African languages. Arabic 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 West/Central Asian language 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 South Asian language 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9 2.5 East Asian language 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.7 African language 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 Other language 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Source: Census (2011)

Self-assessed health Bad health 90 • The profile chart illustrates self-assessed health levels for each of the four 80 Humber LEP authorities, compared against the national median which is 70 represented by the 50 line. 60 50 • The chart illustrates that all four areas have similarly low levels of residents 40 who assess their health to be ‘Very good’. The lowest proportion overall Fair health 30 Very bad health being in Kingston upon Hull, at 43.1%, whilst the highest figure was in East 20 Riding of Yorkshire at 45.2%, although this is still lower than the national 10 median of 47.2%. 0 • The proportion of residents who are in ’Very bad health’ is above the national median for all four areas, with Kingston upon Hull recording the highest figure at 1.6%, which compares to 1.25% nationally. Kingston upon Hull also has the lowest levels of people recording ‘very good health’.

Good health Very good health

England East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull, City of

Source: Census (2011)

Self-assessed health • The map to the right shows the distribution of residents who assessed their health as ‘very bad’ at ward level within the Humber LEP. A darker shade represents a higher proportion of residents in bad health. • The distribution of residents who assessed their health as ‘very bad’ is varied within all local authorities in the Humber LEP • Wards with the highest proportion of their population who consider themselves in ‘very bad’ health tend to border urban hubs, often sitting around the periphery of these areas rather than in the centre. For example, the central wards of Kingston upon Hull and Scunthorpe have better self-assessed health than wards bordering these areas. • East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire have the lowest proportion of residents in very bad health, maybe corresponding to the high rurality of these authorities.

Source: Census (2011)

Life expectancy at birth (2014-16)

86.0 83.5 84.0 83.1 82.6 82.6 82.0 80.1 80.1 Life expectancy 79.5 80.0 78.9

• The bar chart to the right illustrates life expectancy at birth using the latest yrs 77.7 78.0 available data for each of the four local authority areas compared to the 76.3 England average. 76.0 • East Riding of Yorkshire has the highest average life expectancy for both 74.0 males (80.1) and females (83.5) of the group, and performs above the 72.0 national average. East Riding of Kingston upon North East North Lincolnshire England Yorkshire Hull Lincolnshire

• The lowest life expectancies are in Kingston upon Hull, with female and Male Female male life expectancies both well below the national average, at 80.1 and 76.3 years respectively. Life expectancy time series (2004/06-2014/16) • The biggest gap between male and female life expectancy is in North East Lincolnshire, with a difference of 4.8 years, whilst the lowest gap was in East 86 Riding of Yorkshire (3.4 years) 84

82 Life expectancy- change over time 80 78 • The time series analysis shows that all areas have experienced an increase 76 in life expectancy over time, but all at different rates. For male life Yrs expectancy, East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire both increased 74 by 2.17 years over the time period, which is the highest of the group, whilst 72 Kingston upon Hull increased by 1.73 years. 70 • For female life expectancy, East Riding of Yorkshire had the greatest 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 2011 - 2012 - 2013 - 2014 - increase in years (1.8) whilst Kingston upon Hull had the lowest (1.17). 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 East Riding of Yorkshire- Male Kingston upon Hull- Male North East Lincolnshire- Male North Lincolnshire- Male East Riding of Yorkshire- Female Kingston upon Hull- Female North East Lincolnshire- Female North Lincolnshire

Life Satisfaction Worthwhile Residents were asked to answer the question ‘Overall, how satisfied are you with your life Residents were asked to answer the question ‘Overall, to what extent do you feel the things nowadays? Where 0 is 'not at all satisfied' and 10 is 'completely satisfied’.’ you do in your life are worthwhile? Where 0 is 'not at all worthwhile' and 10 is 'completely worthwhile'.’ • All four local authority areas have shown an increase in life satisfaction since 2011/12 • Since 2011/12 all four areas have largely performed above the national average with • Residents in East Riding of Yorkshire have the highest life satisfaction of the four areas, East Riding of Yorkshire having the highest rating of 8.14 compared to the average of with a most recent rating of 7.93. This is above the national average of 7.68 7.86. • On average, residents of Kingston upon Hull have the lowest life satisfaction with the • Between 2013/14 and 2014/15 both Kingston upon Hull and North East Lincolnshire saw most recent rating of 7.56. This area has remained below the national average for the a decline in their worthwhile rating, performing below the national average. While North past few years. East Lincolnshire recovered from this decline, Kingston upon Hull has maintained lower ratings. Most recently, the rating was 7.78

Life Satisfaction Worthwhile

8 8.2 7.9 8.1 7.8 8 7.7 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.4 7 7.3 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire ENGLAND ENGLAND

Source: ONS, Personal well-being in the UK - Annual Population Survey (2016)

Happiness Anxiety Residents were asked to answer the question ‘Overall, how happy did you feel yesterday? Residents were asked to answer the question ‘Overall, how anxious did you feel yesterday? Where 0 is 'not at all happy' and 10 is 'completely happy'.’ Where 0 is 'not at all anxious' and 10 is 'completely anxious'. • Until 2014/15 North Lincolnshire was the ‘happiest’ area but this was superseded by East • There has been an overall decreasing trend in anxiety within the four local authority Riding of Yorkshire, where most recently the happiness rating was 7.73. This is higher areas, generally following the national trend which has decreased by 7.32% since than the national average of 7.51 2011/12. • Kingston upon Hull has consistently performed below the national average despite • Kingston upon Hull is the only comparator area to have seen a slight increase in anxiety seeing an overall increase in happiness rating since 2012/13. of 0.34%, meaning that most recently the residents rated their anxiety as 2.95 compared to the national average of 2.91. • North East Lincolnshire has seen the most varied ratings of the four areas since 2011/12. In general the happiness rating in North East Lincolnshire has remained below or very • In East Riding of Yorkshire, North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire the most similar to the national average. The most recent rating was exactly the same as the recent anxiety ratings have been 2.76, 2.73 and 2.81 respectively. England average (7.51). Happiness Anxiety

7.8 3.3 7.7 3.2 7.6 3.1 7.5 3 7.4 2.9 7.3 2.8 7.2 7.1 2.7 7 2.6 6.9 2.5 6.8 2.4 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Source: ONS, Personal well-being in the UK - Annual Population Survey (2016)

Index of Multiple Deprivation IMD: Overall Score Deprivation covers a broad range of issues and refers to unmet needs caused 100 IMD: Income 90 by a lack of resources of all kinds, not just financial. The English Indices of Deprivation Affecting IMD: Income Deprivation (IMD) attempts to measure a broader concept of multiple Older People 80 deprivation, made up of several distinct dimensions, or domains, of deprivation. 70 60 • The spider chart to the right shows the level of deprivation for overall 50 deprivation and each of the domains/types of deprivation for each of the four IMD: Income 40 Deprivation Affecting 30 IMD: Emplyment local authority areas compared to the national median. Children 20 • The differing shape of the profiles indicate that there is wide range of 10 deprivation levels across the Humber LEP area. Overall, Kingston upon Hull 0 is the most deprived, with a score of 41.24 which is the 3rd highest in the country. It has high levels of deprivation across all forms of deprivation, with IMD: Living the exception of barriers to housing and services, where it is one of the least IMD: Education Environment deprived. It records the highest score nationally on Education deprivation indicating that this could be a significant challenge for the area. • By contrast, East Riding of Yorkshire has much lower levels of deprivation, IMD: Health with an overall score of 15.79 placing it in the bottom 40% nationally. On IMD: Barriers to Deprivation and Housing and Services each domain of deprivation it has lower levels of deprivation than the other Disability three areas, with the exception of the Living Environment and Barriers to IMD: Crime Housing and Services. This could reflect the rural nature of this area which makes it harder to access key services such as post offices, primary schools and GPs. North East Lincolnshire also has high levels of deprivation on this domain. England East Riding of Yorkshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull, City of

Source: English indices of deprivation, DCLG (2015)

Deprivation Inequality • The map to the left shows deprivation at ward level across the Humber LEP with a darker shade representing high levels of deprivation. • Deprivation inequality describes the range between the most and least deprived wards within a local authority. The area within the Humber LEP that has been identified as having the highest deprivation inequality is North East Lincolnshire. • Below it can be seen that within North East Lincolnshire areas around Grimsby and Immingham have the highest levels of deprivation while areas on the periphery of these urban hubs have much lower levels of deprivation

Source: English indices of deprivation, DCLG (2015)

KS2 pupils reaching the expected standard The map to the right shows the proportion of KS2 pupils who achieved the ‘expected standard’ in Reading, Writing and Maths in 2017. A darker colour represents a higher proportion while a light colour indicates a lower proportion and therefore lower performance. The bar chart below shows the attainment within the Humber LEP area compared to the England average. • East Riding of Yorkshire and Kingston upon Hull have proportions equal to the national average of 61%. This shows that they perform in the middle 20% of local authorities nationally. • North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire both perform in the bottom 40% of authorities nationally with proportions of 58% and 59% respectively. • Overall, KS2 attainment within the Humber LEP area would be described as average to low.

Percentage of pupils reaching the expected standard

62 61 61 61

60 59

% 59 58 58

56 East Riding of Kingston upon Hull, North Lincolnshire North East Yorkshire City of Lincolnshire

England average Source: National Curriculum assessments at KS2, Department for Education (2017)

GCSEs (5 A*-C inc. Eng & Maths) (%)- 2014- 2016* GCSE results 70 Children’s education and development of skills are important for their own 62.29 wellbeing and for that of the nation as a whole. Learning ensures that children 60.82 58.74 60 57.9 58.27 57.357.77 develop the knowledge and understanding, skills, capabilities and attributes 56.05 55.52 56.58 that they need for mental, emotional, social and physical wellbeing now and in 51.9852.23 the future. 50 47.1348.19 45.02 • The bar chart to the right illustrates the proportion of pupils achieving 5 or more GCSEs at grade A*-C, including England and Maths, or equivalent, for 40 the past three years. • This illustrates that of the four areas, East Riding of Yorkshire has the 30 highest GCSE performance, with 62.29% of pupils achieving 5 A* - C grades at GCSE level in 2016. North Lincolnshire and East Riding of Yorkshire also achieve above the national average for the latest year of data 20 • Kingston upon Hull recorded the lowest GCSE performance in 2016 at 48.19%, which is significantly below the national average of 57.77%. 10 • Over time all areas have experienced improvements in GCSE achievement

rates, with the exception of North East Lincolnshire which has dropped from 0 56.05% in 2014 down to 52.23% in 2016. East Riding of Kingston upon Hull, North East North Lincolnshire England Yorkshire City of Lincolnshire • The greatest increase in performance was in North Lincolnshire which Jan - Dec 2014 Jan - Dec 2015 Jan - Dec 2016 increased from 55.52% in 2014 to 60.82% in 2016.

* The definition of this indicator has been revised in 2014 following the implementation of two major reforms which affect the calculation of key stage 4 (KS4) performance measures data. Therefore, data published prior to 2014 will not be comparable to data published in 2014 and beyond.

Source: Department for Education (2016)

2016

National Vocational Qualification levels 40

Human capital is a prerequisite of a successful knowledge economy. The 35 resident workforce should ideally be characterised by a good blend of 30 academic and vocational skills which is why its important to consider all levels 25 of qualifications. 20 • The bar chart illustrates the proportion of the working age resident 15 population qualified to each of the NVQ levels for each of the Humber LEP areas compared to the England average. 10 5 • The proportion of the working age population qualified to NVQ level 4 0 (degree and equivalent) and above is particularly high in East Riding of No quals: 16-64 % NVQ 1: 16-64 % NVQ 2: 16-64 % NVQ 3: 16-64 % NVQ 4+: 16-64 % Yorkshire, at 36.5% which is highest of the group but slightly lower than the national average. The lowest levels qualified to NVQ 4 and above are in East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire England North Lincolnshire at 22.96% which is considerably lower than the national average. NVQ 4+ 40 • The proportion of working age population qualified to NVQ 3 level is notably high in North East Lincolnshire at 20.51% which is above the national figure 35 of 17.36% 30 • North Lincolnshire has notably high levels of people qualified to NVQ level 1 25 at 17.39% which is highest of the group and well above the national average 20 (11.23%), indicating that this district is characterised by lower skill levels. 15 • The proportion of working age population with no qualifications is highest in 10 North East Lincolnshire and Kingston upon Hull at 10.51% and 10.45% 5 respectively. 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • All areas have seen an increase in the proportion of the population qualified East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire to NVQ level 4+. While East Riding of Yorkshire sits at a similar level to the national average, the other local authorities within the LEP are considerably North Lincolnshire England lower and the gap has remained broadly consistent. Source: Annual Population Survey (December 2016)

Skill levels vs. knowledge occupations • The scatter plot illustrates that there is a general positive correlation between the proportion of the population who are qualified to level 4 or above and the proportion of knowledge occupations. • Within the Humber LEP East Riding of Yorkshire has the highest proportion of both NVQ 4+ and knowledge occupations. • The three other areas within the LEP have a very low proportion of both variables relative to the rest of England.

Source: Annual Population Survey (December 2016)

Geo-demographic analysis Geo-demographics can be used to segment population based on a range of behavioural and lifestyle insights, and provides a detailed understanding of the needs and behaviours of residents within a given location. The LEP area has the greatest proportion of the population categorised as Paying the Mortgage’ (18.1%), ‘Cash Conscious Communities’ (17.5%) and ‘Family Value’ (16.7%). East Riding of Yorkshire has greatest proportions of the population categorised as ‘Paying the Mortgage’ (21.5%), ‘Content Commuters’ (17.4%) and ‘Enterprising Mainstream’ (12.3%). Kingston upon Hull has greatest proportions of the population categorised as ‘Family Value’ (35.0%), ‘Cash Conscious Communities’ (18.2%) and ‘Paying the Mortgage’ (14.6%). North East Lincolnshire has greatest proportions of the population categorised as ‘ ‘Cash conscious communities’ (21.6%), ‘On a Budget’ (20.1%) and ‘Paying the Mortgage’ (18.8%). While, North Lincolnshire has greatest proportions of the population categorised as ‘Paying the Mortgage’ (18.1%), ‘Cash Conscious Communities’ (17.5%) and ‘Family Value’ (16.7%).

CAMEO

25 21.5 21.6 20.1 18.8 20 17.4 18.1 18.2 17.5 17.0 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.7 14.2 14.6 14.7 14.7 15 12.3 11.4 10.8 10.9 11.3 10.511.0 10 8.0 8.6 6.8 6.6 6.5 5.6 5.4 6.2 4.4 5.0 5.2 3.5 3.9 5 2.3 3.0 1.6 1.21.8 1.9 1.7 0.60.80.3 0.7 0.8 0 1: Business Elite (%) 2: Prosperous 3: Flourishing Society 4: Content 5: White Collar 6: Enterprising 7: Paying The 8: Cash Conscious 9: On A Budget (%) 10: Family Value (%) Professionals (%) (%) Communities (%) Neighbourhoods (%) Mainstream (%) Mortgage (%) Communities (%)

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Humber LEP Area

Source: Cameo (2017) Call Credit

Household structure One person household The size and structure of households has implications for planning, housing 100 demand and entitlement to benefits. 90 80 • The profile chart to the right shows the household structure for the each of 70 the four authorities within the Humber LEP compared to the England 60 median. 50 One family: Married 40 • East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire both share a relatively or same-sex civil All full-time student 30 similar shape, with both areas having very high proportions of one family partnership couple: household Dependent children 20 couples with no children. However, East Riding of Yorkshire has higher 10 levels of full-time student households compared to North Lincolnshire. 0 • Both North East Lincolnshire and Kingston upon Hull tend to have smaller household sizes, as illustrated in the chart and have above average levels of one person households, and a high proportion of lone parent household. • Relative to the England median of 0.56%, a high proportion of people living in Kingston upon Hull are full-time students (1.21%), indicating the presence of higher education establishments. One family: Married or same-sex civil One family only: partnership couple: Lone parent No children

England East Riding of Yorkshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull, City of

Source: Census (2011)

Lone parent households- with dependent children

• Higher proportions of one parent families can generally be seen in and around the urban hubs of the Humber LEP. This is particularly visible in Kingston upon Hull, Scunthorpe in North Lincolnshire, and Cleethorpes in North East Lincolnshire • East Riding of Yorkshire has fewer wards with high proportions of one parent families. The north west areas of East Riding of Yorkshire largely have proportions of one lone parent with dependent children families ranging from 0.8-3.9% • Smaller micro hubs with ‘very high’ proportions (9.8-25.8%) of lone parent families with children can also be seen more sporadically across the Humber LEP area. For example, Beverly in East Riding of Yorkshire, Bridlington in the north east of the LEP area, and Central Immingham and Immingham dock in North East Lincolnshire

Source: Census (2011)

Household projections Household projections by district, 1991-2039

This chart illustrates household projections for each of the four Authorities over 170 the period 1991-2039. 148 163 150 Household projections show that there were 349,000 households in the 130 Humber LEP area in 2017. Looking ahead to 2039 this is anticipated to grow 115 124 118 to 442,000 households, an increase of 34,000 or 8.4%. 110 106

The largest proportional increase is expected in East Riding of Yorkshire. Thousands 90 73 Between 2017 and 2039 the number of households is expected to increase by 80 75 70 15,000 homes (10.1%) from 148,000 to 163,000. As a result, the proportion of 64 61 71 homes this represents in the LEP area will marginally increase from 36.3% in 50 2017 to 36.8% in 2039.

The next largest increase is anticipated in Kingston Upon Hull where East Riding of Yorkshire UA Kingston upon Hull, City of UA projections suggest an increase from 119,000 households in 2017 to 124,000 North East Lincolnshire UA North Lincolnshire UA in 2039, an increase of 8,000 households (7.2%). The proportion of homes this represents in the LEP area will marginally decrease from 28.3% in 2017 to 2017 2039 28.0% in 2039.

In North East Lincolnshire the number is anticipated to increase from 71,000 18.0% 18.2% in 2017 to 75,000 in 2039, an increase of 4,000 or 5.6%. The proportion of homes this represents in the LEP area will marginally decrease from 17.4% in 36.3% 36.8% 2017 to 17.0% in 2039.

While in North Lincolnshire the number of households is expected to increase 17.4% 17.0% from 73,000 in 2017 to 80,000. This represents an increase of 7,000 households or 9.8%. The proportion of homes this represents in the LEP area will marginally increase from 18.0% in 2017 to 18.2% in 2039. 28.3% 28.0%

Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (2016) Household projections by district, England, 1991-2039

House Prices Overall average house prices (Q4 2008-Q4 2017)

Over the past decade, average house prices have increased from £204,065 in 300,000 285,424 Q4 of 2008 to £285,424 in Q4 of 2017. Over the period, this represents and an increase of £81,359 or 39.9%.

Of the four authorities in the Humber LEP area, average house prices are 250,000 greatest in East Riding of Yorkshire at £191,323 in Q4 of 2017. Over the past decade prices have increased on average by £26,612 (16.2%) from £164,711 204,065 in Q4 of 2008. 200,000 191,323 North Lincolnshire had the second highest average household prices in Q4 164,711 2017 at £152,579. Over the past decade average prices have increased by 152,579 £20,779 (15.8%) from £131,800 in Q4 of 2008. £ 150,000 131,800 131,005 In North East Lincolnshire average house prices in Q4 of 2017 were £131,005. Over the past decade prices increased by £22,699 (21.0%) from 108,306 £108,306 in Q4 of 2008. 100,000 115,906 While in Kingston Upon Hull average house prices were £115,906 in Q4 97,583 2017, dropping £22,434 from a high of £138,340 in Q4 of 2016. Over the past decade average prices increased £18,323 (18.8%) from £97,583 Q4 of 2008. 50,000

0 2008-Q4 2009-Q4 2010-Q4 2011-Q4 2012-Q4 2013-Q4 2014-Q4 2015-Q4 2016-Q4 2017-Q4

CITY OF KINGSTON UPON HULL EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE National total

Total house sales Total Number of House Sales

The line chart to the right shows the total number of house sales for all types of 2000 housing each year since 2007.

• All areas saw a sharp decrease in house sales in 2008, with the East Riding 1800 of Yorkshire experiencing the largest decrease of 56.7% from 2007.

• While none of the areas have recovered to the level of housing sales they 1600 were achieving before 2008, East Riding of Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire, and North East Lincolnshire have seen increases of 97.1%, 72.7%, and 36.4% respectively since the crash. 1400 • Kingston upon Hull saw an increase in house sales of 21% between 2008 and 2015, however the area then saw a second decline of in house sales 1200 between 2015-2016, going from 978 sales to 490.

1000 Number of house sales house of Number 800

600

400

200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Source: Land Registry, Q4 (2017)

Price by house type

House prices by house type £450,000 The number of sales for different house types within the Humber LEP can be seen in the bar £400,000 chart to the right. £350,000 • Relative to the national averages average prices of the different house types are generally lower in the Humber LEP area. £300,000 • Similar to the national picture, detached £250,000 houses have the highest average house prices in the Humber LEP area. East Riding of Yorkshire has the most expensive £200,000 detached houses with an average price of £279,765. Kingston upon Hull has the lowest £150,000 average house price for detached houses at £205,509. £100,000 • Nationally, flat and maisonettes are on average the second most expensive house £50,000 type. However, in the Humber LEP area, these properties have the lowest average £- house prices. The national average house price for a flat or maisonette is £276,983 but in North Lincolnshire the average price for these properties is £58,337.

Detached Semi-det Terraced Flat/mais

Source: Land Registry, Q4 (2017)

Household affordability ratios Affordability Ratios

The chart to the right illustrates the ratio of median house price to median gross 7 annual (where available) residence-based earnings by local authority district between 2002 to 2016. The higher the value, the less affordable households will be in that area. 6 5.93 Of the four authorities in the Humber LEP area, the affordability ratio was greatest in East Riding of Yorkshire in 2016 at 5.93. This compares to 4.64 in 5 North East Lincolnshire, 4.63 in North Lincolnshire and 4.38 in Kingston Upon 4.64 Hull. 4.63

4.38 East Riding of Yorkshire also saw the greatest widening of the affordability ratio 4 over the period of 2002 to 2016. The ratio increased from 3.69 in 2002 to 5.93 3.69 in 2016, an increase of 2.24. In Kingston Upon Hull the ratio increased from 2.38 in 2002 to 4.38 in 2016, an 3 2.76 increase of 2. In North East Lincolnshire the ratio increased from 2.76 in 2002 2.59 to 4.64 in 2016, an increase of 1.88. While in North Lincolnshire the ratio increased from 2.59 in 2002 to 4.63 in 2016, an increase of 2.04. 2 2.38

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Source: ONS (2017) Ratio of median house price to median gross annual (where available) residence-based earnings by local authority district, England and Wales, 2002 to 2016

Planning permissions - Number of residential units Humber LEP: Permissions, Residential Units (General & Social)

The charts to the right illustrate the annual number of planning permissions 7,000 granted for residential units over the period of 2010-2017 in both the Humber 6,000 LEP area and the four authorities that comprise it. 4,568 5,000

The annual number of residential unit permissions in the Humber LEP area 4,000 increased from 1,984 in 2010 to 4,568 in 2017, an increase of 2,584 units 3,000 (130%). 1,984 2,000

Over the same period, the annual number of residential unit permissions in 1,000 East Riding of Yorkshire increased from 203 in 2010 to 2,057 in 2017, an 0 increase of 1,854. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 In Kingston Upon Hull the annual number of residential unit permissions Authority: Permissions, Residential Units (General & Soical) increased from 895 in 2010 to a high of 3,040 in 2016, before falling back down to 759 in 2017. 4,000 3,778 In North East Lincolnshire the annual number of residential unit permissions 3,500 increased from 203 in 2010 to 1,401 in 2017. 3,000 While in North Lincolnshire the annual number of residential permissions 2,500 increased from 203 in 2010 to a high of 3,778 in 2013, before falling to 351 in 2,000 2,057 2017. The peak of 3,778 in 2013 was the highest number recorded in a single 1,500 1,401 year across all four authorities over this period. 1,000 895 683 759 500 203 351 203 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of

North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Source: Egi (2018)

Permissions - Number of residential schemes with 100+ units Humber LEP: Permissions, 100+ Residential Unit Schemes (General & Social) The charts to the right illustrate the annual number of planning permissions granted for large residential schemes that comprise over a 100 units over the 16 period of 2010-2017 in both the Humber LEP area and the four authorities that 14 comprise it. 12 11 10 In the Humber LEP area the annual number of large residential scheme 8 permissions granted increased from 5 in 2010, to a high of 15 in 2015, before 6 falling to 11 in 2017. 5 4 In East Riding of Yorkshire the number of large residential schemes 2 increased from 1 in 2010 to 5 in 2017. The highest number of large residential 0 permissions was in 2014 and 2015 where there were 9 each year. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

In Kingston Upon Hull the number decreased from 3 in 2010 to 1 in 2017. Authority: Permissions, 100+ Residential Unit Schemes (General & Social) Over this period there were two peaks in development in 2012 and 2016 where 10 there were 7 large residential permissions in each year. 9 In North East Lincolnshire the number increased from zero in 2010 to 5 in 8 2017. This was the highest number recorded in the authority over this period. 7 6 In North Lincolnshire the number decreased from 1 in 2010 to zero in 2017. 5 5 The number of large residential permissions granted peaked in 2013 and 2015 4 where there were 2 in each year. 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Source: Egi (2018)

Residential Planning Permissions Residential planning permissions can help to identify areas of community growth within the Humber LEP. • Residential permissions are well distributed across the entire LEP with higher densities in more connected urban areas, as may well be expected for access to services. • Permissions that have been granted in the more rural or sparsely populated areas tend to be smaller development of 1-9 units. The largest developments of 100+ units are almost exclusively found near the bigger towns and cities such as Kingston upon Hull. • 52% of all planning permissions are for locations within East Riding of Yorkshire, 18% are in North Lincolnshire, 16.6% in Kingston upon Hull, and 13.4% in North East Lincolnshire. • 71.1% of planning permission are for developments with 1-9 units, 23% for 10-99 units, and 5.39% for large developments of 100+ units.

Unit size: 1-9 Unit size: 10-99 Unit size: 100+ Kingston upon Hull, City of 63 42 9 East Riding of Yorkshire 262 78 17 North East Lincolnshire 65 18 9 North Lincolnshire 99 23 2

Source: Estates Gazette (2018)

Retail Planning Permissions Retail planning permissions highlight commercial areas in the Humber LEP. • The locations of retail planning permissions are in the most connected areas, in and around the larger towns and cities where accessibility and population density is higher. • 40.5% of retail planning permissions in the Humber LEP are for locations within Kingston upon Hull, 32.8% are in East Riding of Yorkshire, 14.2% in North East Lincolnshire, and 12.5% in North Lincolnshire.

Retail Kingston upon Hull, City of 94 East Riding of Yorkshire 76 North East Lincolnshire 33 North Lincolnshire 29

Source: Estates Gazette (2018)

Leisure Planning Permissions • Similar to retail, the locations of retail planning permissions are in the most urban areas where there are larger resident populations. • The planning locations are clustered in fewer and more targeted areas such as Kingston upon Hull, Cleepthorpes, Scunthorpe, and Beverley. • 41.1% of leisure planning permissions in the Humber LEP were located in East Riding of Yorkshire, while only 10.7% are in North East Lincolnshire.

Leisure Kingston upon Hull, City of 16 East Riding of Yorkshire 23 North East Lincolnshire 6 North Lincolnshire 11

Source: Estates Gazette (2018)

Dwellings started and completed East Riding of Yorkshire Dwellings started Dwellings completed The line charts to the right and on the following slide show the changes in the number of dwellings started and completed in the Humber LEP over the last 10 1000 years. These graphs help to identify periods of high house building rates, possibly 900 associated with policy changes or significant changes in demand. 800 700 • Since 2013-14 East Riding of Yorkshire has seen an increase in the rate of 600 500 dwellings started and completed by approximately two-fold from 270 dwellings 400 being completed to 890 completions. Prior to this the last peak in house building 300 was between 2009-10 and 2011-12, with 660 dwellings being started in 2010-11. 200 100 • Kingston upon Hull has had a varied pattern of house building over the past 0 decade, with an overall decrease in dwellings completed since 2013-14. Most recently, there has been a higher number of dwellings started than completed, suggesting that the next few years will see an increase in housing completions. Kingston upon Hull • North East Lincolnshire (following slide) has seen a decline in the number of houses completed and started since 2013-14, with number falling by 36.7% from Dwellings started Dwellings completed 300 dwellings to 190 dwellings. North East Lincolnshire saw a peak in the number of dwellings being completed in 2011-12 with 460 dwellings. 1200 Completions since then have been decreasing by 61.2% to 2016-17. 1000 • Since 2008-09, house building in North Yorkshire has remained at a much lover 800 level than other areas in the Humber LEP. In 2008-09 the area saw a 77.8% drop 600 in the number of dwellings started and since then levels have not significantly 400 increased. 200

Source: MHCLG, New build dwellings (2017)

Dwellings started and completed North East Lincolnshire

The table below shows the house building data for the Humber LEP and comparator Dwellings started Dwellings completed areas in 2016-17. From this table we can see the type of dwellings started and completed. 600 • Of the four areas within the Humber LEP, East Riding has the most house 500

building activity with 940 dwellings started, and 890 completed. North East 400 Lincolnshire has the least with 190 dwellings started and completed. Overall the total building activity in the Humber LEP is low relative to its comparator cities. 300

• Of the dwellings competed in the Humber LEP, 88.8% are private enterprise 200 dwellings. 100 • The only area that appears to be growing its Local Authority housing stock is 0 Leeds, where 10 dwellings were started while 60 were completed. 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

2016-17 building starts and completion for the Humber LEP and comparator areas North Lincolnshire Dwellings started Dwellings completed Dwellings started Dwellings completed Private Local Private Local Enterpris HA Authorit All Enterpris HA All Authority 800 e y e East Riding of 700 830 110 0 940 790 100 0 890 Yorkshire 600 Kingston upon Hull 500 70 0 570 330 70 0 390 500 North East Lincolnshire 180 10 0 190 180 10 0 190 North Lincolnshire 270 30 0 290 210 0 0 210 400 York 300 50 0 350 370 60 0 430 300 Liverpool 1580 20 0 1600 600 160 0 760 200 Doncaster 1180 0 0 1180 750 20 0 770 163 100 Leeds 2390 130 10 2530 1420 140 60 0 0 Manchester 1790 0 0 1790 460 10 0 470 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 109 Sheffield 900 30 0 930 1040 50 0 Source: MHCLG, New build dwellings (2017) 0 Lincoln 110 0 0 110 100 10 0 110 © 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 112 Capital value of properties – Humber LEP

Average property sale values Average property sale value 2012-2017 (£) The first chart to the right illustrates the average flat sale values in the Humber £400,000 LEP area between 2012 and 2017. £350,000 354,131 £300,000 305,876 • On average, one bedroom properties in 2012 sold for £74,737 compared to £250,000 £62,759 in 2017, a reduction of £11,978. 234,825 £200,000 206,894

• Two bedroom properties sold for £98,608 in 2012 compared to £112,241 in £150,000 139,967 119,125 112,241 2017, an increase of £13,633. £100,000 98,608 62,759 • Three bedroom properties sold for £119,125 in 2012 compared to £139,967 £50,000 74,737 in 2017, an increase of £20,842. £0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • Four bedroom properties sold for £206,894 in 2012 compared to £234,825 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom in 2017, an increase of £27,931. • Five bedroom properties sold for £305,876 in 2012 compared to £354,131 in Median weeks to sale 2012-2017

2017, an increase of £48,255. 28 Median weeks to let property 2010-2017 26 24 22 The second chart shows the median number of weeks that properties were on 22 market before they were let. 20 18 18

Weeks 16 In 2012 properties took on average between 15 and 22 weeks to sell. In 2017 15 16 property types typically took 11-12 weeks to sell. 14 12 1112 12 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom

Source: Zoopla (2018)

Average property sale values – East Riding of Yorkshire East Riding of Yorkshire - Average property sale value 2012-2017 (£) • The average value of one bedroom properties increased over the period, rising £450,000 £400,000 412,771 from £76,414 in 2012 to £84,156 in 2017, an increase of £7,742. 370,085 £350,000

• Two bedroom properties increased from £107,576 in 2012 to £131,657 in 2017, £300,000 291,057 an increase of £24,081. £250,000 257,159 £200,000 • Three bedroom properties increased from £149,863 in 2012 to £180,596 in 2017, 180,596 £150,000 149,863 an increase of £30,733. 131,657 107,576 £100,000 76,414 84,156 • Four bedroom properties increased from £257,159 in 2012 to £291,057 in 2017, £50,000 an increase of £33,898. £0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • Five bedroom properties increased from £370,085 in 2012 to £412,771 in 2017, an increase of £42,686. 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom

Average property sale values – Kingston Upon Hull Kingston upon Hull – Average property sale value 2012-2017 (£)

• The average value of one bedroom properties increased from £65,604 in 2012 £250,000 to £72,856 in 2017, an increase of £7,252. 222,819 £200,000 190,044 • Two bedroom properties increased from £74,451 in 2012 to £88,078 in 2017, an 180,096 increase of £13,627. £150,000 158,229 • Three bedroom properties increased from £101,859 in 2012 to £120,328 in 2017, 120,328 £100,000 101,859 an increase of £18,469. 88,078 74,451 72,856 • Four bedroom properties increased from £158,229 in 2012 to £180,096 in 2017, £50,000 65,604 an increase of £21,867. £0 • Five bedroom properties increased from £190,044 in 2012 to £222,819 in 2017, 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

an increase of £32,775. 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom

Source: Zoopla (2018)

Average property sale values – North Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire – Average property sale value 2012-2017 (£) • The average price of one bedroom property over the period decreased from £400,000 £74,737 in 2012 to £62,759 in 2017, a decrease of £11,978. £350,000 354,131 £300,000 305,876 • Two bedroom properties increased from £98,608 in 2012 to £112,241 in 2017, £250,000 an increase of £13,633. 234,825 £200,000 206,894 • Three bedroom properties increased from £119,125 in 2012 to £139,967 in 2017, £150,000 139,967 an increase of £20,842. 119,125 112,241 £100,000 98,608 74,737 • Four bedroom properties increased from £206,894 in 2012 to £234,825 in 2017, £50,000 62,759 an increase of £27,931. £0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • Five bedroom properties increased from £305,876 in 2012 to £354,131 in 2017, an increase of £48,255. 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom

Average property sale values – North East Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire – Average property sale value 2012-2017 (£)

• The average price of one bedroom properties over the period decreased from £350,000

£64,365 in 2012 to £63,768 in 2017, an decrease of £597. £300,000 284,271 • Two bedroom properties increased from £83,382 in 2012 to £111,259 in 2017, £250,000 255,612 an increase of £27,877. 228,740 £200,000 193,145

• Three bedroom properties increased from £96,684 in 2012 to £117,699 in 2017, £150,000 117,699 an increase of £21,015. 96,684 £100,000 111,259 83,382 64,365 63,768 • Four bedroom properties increased from £193,145 in 2012 to £228,740 in 2017, £50,000 an increase of £35,595. £0 • Five bedroom properties increased from £255,612 in 2012 to £284,271 in 2017, 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

an increase of £28,659. 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom 5 Bedroom

Source: Zoopla (2018)

Total rateable value per square metre 90

This line chart shows the change in value per square metre of rateable floor space in the Humber LEP areas, across all 80 sectors. • The four local authorities have seen an overall increase since 2005-06, with a particularly sharp increase between 2009-10 and 2010-11 70 • North East Lincolnshire has the highest rateable value per square metre, with a value of £49/m^2 in 2015-16 • North Lincolnshire has the lowest rateable value per 60 square metre, with a value of £36/m^2 in 2015-16 • Kingston upon Hull has seen the highest growth in rateable value per metre squared, increasing by 17.5% from £40/m^2 in 2005-06 to £47/m^2 in 2015-16 50 • North Lincolnshire has seen the smallest growth in rateable value, increasing by 9.1% since 2005-06

• East Riding of Yorkshire and North East Lincolnshire 40 have seen growth of 11.4% and 14% respectively

30 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire England

Source: Valuation Office Agency (2016)

Business rates relative to all English districts The spider charts below demonstrate how the value per metre squared of rateable floor space in the Humber LEP has changed relative to all other English districts, in total and by sector, since 2005-06. Points towards the outside of the chart represent higher values, therefore a larger shape would suggest higher rateable floor space values. In general, for the four areas of the Humber LEP the shape of the spider chart has decreased since 2005-06, suggesting that the rateable floor space value has decreased across the different sectors. Therefore, while the rateable value of floor space in the Humber LEP is increasing in real terms, the relative ranking of floor space value compared to the rest of England is decreasing. This suggests the rateable value of floor space in other English districts may be increasing at a faster rate than within the Humber LEP.

2005-06 2015-16 East Riding of Yorkshire Total - Rateable value East Riding of Yorkshire Total - Rateable value Kingston upon Hull, City of per m2 Kingston upon Hull, City of per m2 North East Lincolnshire 100 North East Lincolnshire 100 North Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire 80 80

60 60

Other - Rateable 40 Retail - Rateable Other - Rateable 40 Retail - Rateable value per m2 value per m2 value per m2 value per m2 20 20

0 0

Industrial - Rateable Office - Rateable Industrial - Rateable Office - Rateable value per m2 value per m2 value per m2 value per m2

Source: Valuation Office Agency (2016)

Introduction • The first is that the most significant outflow of people to elsewhere in the UK is the young adult age group (15-29). This has significant implications for This section of the report looks across the range of economic and social the future economic growth of the sub-region – these people are the measures discussed in previous chapters to provide an overview on both how workforce of the future, they will be the ones that will drive productivity the Humber economy has changed and how it might be expected to change in growth. Attracting young adults to the region, and encouraging those that the future. As part of this, this section looks at the role of reducing the Humber live in the region to stay through the provision of both good jobs but also a Bridge toll on changing the economic pattern. It also considers a number of vibrant cultural offer are therefore important policy priorities. key macro trends and policy levers that are likely to impact on the Humber Economy in the future. • The second is that the EU13 countries have contributed over 65% of total National Insurance Number registrations since 2005. The UK’s Exit from the Through this analysis the following headline themes are apparent. European Union and the uncertainty over how this will impact on the free Historic population growth with emerging challenges for future movement of people has the potential to have significant implications for the Humber LEP economy and is likely to impact on a number of key sectors: economic growth construction; agriculture; and manufacturing. Understanding the extent to Alongside the economic growth noted above, the resident population of the which businesses in these sectors are expecting to be affected and how Humber increased by 52,792 - 6% growth – since 2001/02. This growth in these skills and workforce gaps can be filled is an extremely pressing population has been predominantly driven by net internal (domestic) migration priority. While they clearly present a challenge, through close working with and international migration, with natural change having a smaller impact. local education providers from schools, to further and higher education there However, over the last decade net internal (domestic) migration reduced are a number of opportunities that can be realised. significantly with a greater number of people moving out of the LEP area to Slower future population growth with implications for future elsewhere in the UK. International migration has therefore become the largest driver of population growth in the area, with natural change playing a more competitiveness influential role in demographic change. These trends provide important context Between 2016 and 2036 population growth across the Humber LEP is in considering future growth prospects for the LEP area. expected to be 4.5%. This is 1.5 percentage points lower than the preceding In unpicking these headline measures, two important factors emerge: 20 years. Across the four local authority areas, forecast growth varies from 2% in North East Lincolnshire to 6.2% in East Riding of Yorkshire.

*EU 13 countries are those that have joined the European Union since 2004 – Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 119 However, and perhaps most significantly, all four local areas have forecast Slower future economic growth with uncertainties for growth rates that are significantly lower than other major northern cities, for productivity improvements example Manchester’s population growth is forecast to be 18%, York 15% and Sheffield 13%. Only Sunderland at 3.6% has a forecast growth rate that is Drawing on the West Yorkshire Combined Authority (WYCA) Regional comparable to the Humber LEP authorities. Econometric Model (REM) over the period 2017-2036 the total number of full- time equivalent jobs in the Humber LEP is forecast to increase by 20,140 – This lower growth rate has a number of potential implications for the Humber 5.7%. The largest increase is expected to be in East Riding of Yorkshire with LEP economy. The first relates to its economic scale. With a continuing shift 7,990 additional jobs (7% increase), while North East Lincolnshire is estimate towards urbanisation and growth of metropolitan areas there is a risk that the to see the smallest growth of 2,590 additional jobs (a 4.1% increase). Humber LEP economy is unable to compete with other metropolitan areas and particularly the three large northern city regions of Leeds, Liverpool and While this growth is positive, the REM anticipates the Humber LEP will Manchester. Linked to this is the impact that a smaller scale economic centre experience lower growth than the wider region and other West Yorkshire has in attracting investment. This is relevant to both inward investment from authorities. For example, West Yorkshire is expected to see growth in jobs at businesses as well as investment in relation to infrastructure and other twice the rate of the Humber LEP (10.5% compared to 5.7%). This growth is government economic priorities (eg location of catapult centres, research primarily driven by the high growth rate in Leeds (13.7%). Of the other institutes etc). These factors in turn have a knock on effect on out-migration as Yorkshire authorities only Wakefield and Calderdale (6.9% and 7.4% growth young people leave in search of education and employment opportunities. respectively) have a comparable figure to the Humber LEP authorities. Retention and growth of its younger adult age groups is a key requirement for In terms of the sectoral nature of the growth forecast, the REM estimates that the future growth of the Humber LEP’s economy. the greatest increase within the Humber LEP will be in Public Services, Food Another impact of a lower growth rate relates to the financial resilience of the Services and Recreation, Transport and Storage, Professional and other individual local authority areas. The ability to raise income is becoming an Private Services and Construction. Conversely, Manufacturing is estimated to increasingly important lever for local authorities in ensuring their longer term experience an overall decline in employment number over the forecast period. financial sustainability. Growth is a critical component of income generation: How this forecasted growth will impact on productivity is one of the most new homes provide additional council tax revenues; new businesses provide important questions facing the Humber LEP. With the REM estimating the additional business rates; and thriving city centres maximise the opportunities greatest employment growth in public services, food services and recreation – for fee generation (eg parking). traditionally lower productivity sectors – the LEP area could face a number of challenges in improving this.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 120 However, with increasing automation, digitisation and major disruption • This will see further disruption of existing markets (eg retail and the demise expected in the service sector (see below) there is potential that lower of the high-street and increased automation in manufacturing) as well as employment growth could result in higher productivity growth. For this potential driving disruption and innovation in entirely new markets particularly in the to be realised there is a need for the LEP to ensure that it is investing in key service sector. How the Humber LEP can harness these changes and areas that will help facilitate this. This includes the digital and tech skills advances for its economic success is both a significant opportunity and agenda, supporting organisations to innovate and develop new products and challenge. services and helping businesses to invest in new capital equipment and • New generations will have entirely new priorities – Younger generations research and development. – millennials, Generation Z and now Generation Alpha have a different set Key macro trends of priorities. This impacts on both how they view work and the economy as well as how they view society. They are less likely to have careers and Alongside these historic trends there are a number of macro trends emerging more likely to work on different projects. They care more about the purpose that are likely to have a significant impact on the future shape and scale of the of a business than its permanence. They are less attached to traditional Humber Economy, here – in short – are six that we think are likely to have a big status symbols such as owning their own home and therefore potentially impact: less connected to places. • Cities are only going to become bigger and smarter – As cities become • Demands on public-sector spending and services are rising ever bigger and more populated the Humber LEP will need to orientate itself dramatically – Financial austerity and an increasingly aging population are more closely towards the economic centres of Leeds and Manchester. This placing unprecedented demand on the public sector. These pressure will will require investment in transport and infrastructure. However, it will be fundamentally change the role of the public sector and potentially have important that the Humber LEP doesn’t just look to UK cities but that it significant implications for how it can both support and drive economic considers how – based on its economic strengths – it can relate to other growth. New models are therefore required that can help create more global cities. Alongside this as the internet of things becomes more inclusive growth. mainstream there are opportunities for cities like Hull to become better connected and drive key service improvements in public transport and waste • Growing demand for natural resources – Both the depletion of natural to name but two. resources alongside growing public awareness and understanding of the issues related to climate change mean that immediate and dramatic shifts in • Technology and digital innovation is accelerating – The speed of behaviour are likely to take place. This will result in changes in regulation technological advance and the fourth industrial revolution will have profound and technology as well as forcing innovation and different consumer implications for how businesses operate, the products and services they patterns. New models are therefore required that can help create more offer and the way they engage with the market. sustainable growth.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 121 • Brexit and new relationships with Europe and other trading partners – While uncertainty continues to dominate in relation to Brexit, what is certain is that it will have implications – either perceived of actual – for EU-UK trade, the free-movement of people and trading relationships with the rest of the World. This will impact on the Humber economy as it will the rest of the UK and as such will shape and influence future growth in a profound and notable way. In particular, the impact on trade through the Port of Hull and access to migrant labour for industry will be key for the Humber LEP area.

Humber LEP Since 2001, the population of the Humber LEP has increased by +52,792 (a 6.0% increase), with lower annual growth estimated since 2011 (averaging 0.2% pa compared to 0.5% pa prior to 2011). Between successive Censuses, population estimation is necessary. Mid-year population estimates (MYEs) are derived by applying the ‘components of change’ (i.e. birth, deaths, internal and international migration to the previous year’s MYE. Between 2001/02 and 2006/07, population change in the Humber LEP was driven by predominantly net internal (domestic) migration and international migration, with natural change having a smaller annual impact. Since 2007/08, net internal migration has been predominantly negative, with a greater number of people moving out to the rest of the UK than moving to the LEP area. Net international migration has been positive throughout the historical period, increasing on the latter two years after experiencing a reduction between 2011/12–2013/14. Natural change increased to 2011/12, reducing thereafter driven by a fall in births and a small increase in deaths. The ‘components-of-change’ trends provide important context for the consideration of population and economic growth forecasts for the LEP. Figure 1: Humber LEP mid-year population estimates (2001–2016) (Source: ONS) 10,000 940,000 8,000

920,000 6,000

4,000 900,000

2,000 Population Population Change Population 0 880,000

-2,000

860,000 -4,000

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 840,000 2001/02 Natural Change Net

Internal Migration

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 Net International Migration Unattributable Population Change

The age profile of internal migration to the LEP since 2001/02 reveals a net outflow in the National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations provide an indication of country of origin young adult (15–29) age groups, whilst a net inflow is evidenced for all other age groups. immigration flows of labour force age groups since 2002. Between 2012 and 2016, a rapid The net outflows experienced in the young adult age groups are associated with moves for increase in NINo registrations to the Humber LEP was evidenced; reaching a peak of 7,253 higher education and employment opportunities and include the annual net inflows and registrations in 2016, followed by a decrease in the subsequent year. Since 2005, outflows to Hull University. registrations from EU13 countries has contributed over 65% of total NINo registrations, with the number of Romanian and Bulgarian workers rising sharply since the lifting of restrictions Figure 2: Humber LEP average net migration flows by age group (2001/02–2015/16) in 2014. Figure 3: Humber LEP National Insurance Number registrations 2002–2017

8,000 400 257 207 231 173 151 178 7,000 200 115 126 117 55 46 33 36 6,000 0 5,000 -200 -253 4,000 -400 -300 3,000

-600 NINo Registrations NINo Average Net Migration Net Average 2,000 -800 -772 1,000 -1,000

0-4 5-9

75+

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EU13 Other EU Old Commonwealth New Commonwealth Other

Figure 4: Humber LEP age profile 2016 When considering future housing and economic growth in the Humber LEP, the population Males Females size and age structure is an important factor. The 2016 MYEs record an older age profile in the Humber LEP than the region and England in total, with an Old Age Dependency (OAD) 85+ ratio of 33; this means that the population aged 65+ is equivalent to 33% of the population 80-84 aged 15–64 (Figure 9). This compares to 29% for the Yorkshire & Humber region and 28% 75-79 for England. 70-74 65-69 The higher OAD values are a consequence of the LEPs annual net outflows of the young 60-64 adult age-groups that are not matched by a similarly-sized ‘return’ inflow in the later age 55-59 groups. As a consequence, the LEP’s population is ‘ageing’ at a faster rate than other areas 50-54 of the UK. This has particular implications for maintenance of the LEP’s labour force in 45-49 meeting employment growth aspirations. 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Indicator England Yorkshire & Humber Humber LEP Percentage 65+ 18% 18% 20% Percentage 80+ 5% 5% 5% OAD* 28 29 33 Median Age 40 40 43

OAD = Old Age Dependency Ratio (Population Aged 65+/Population Aged 15–64)

Humber LEP UAs The greatest proportion of the Humber LEP resides in East Riding of Yorkshire (36%), with 28% in Hull, 18% in North Lincolnshire and 17% in North East Lincolnshire. Population change since 2001 has varied across the LEP, with North Lincolnshire experiencing the largest increase (12%), whilst North East Lincolnshire has experienced the smallest (1%). The drivers of population change vary significantly between the four unitary authorities (Figure 5). Figure 5: Humber unitary authorities’ population and components of change 2001–2016 East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

340,000 262,000 160,500 175,000 260,000 160,000 170,000 330,000 258,000 159,500 165,000 256,000 159,000 254,000 160,000 320,000 158,500 252,000

158,000 155,000

Population Population

Population 250,000 Population 310,000 248,000 157,500 150,000 246,000 157,000 145,000

300,000 244,000 156,500 140,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6,000 5,000 1,500 5,000 2,500 4,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 3,000 2,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 500 1,000 1,000 0 0 500 0 -1,000 0

Population Population Change -1,000 -2,000 -500

Population Population Change Population Population Change -2,000 -3,000 Population Change -500

-4,000 -1,000 -1,000

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire Population change in the East Riding of Yorkshire has been driven by the annual net inflow North East Lincolnshire has a similar demographic change profile to Hull, with net of migrants from the rest of the UK to the unitary authority in all years, notwithstanding international migration and natural change evidenced as the dominant component of 2014/15 which recorded a significant fall in net flows. There is a stark contrast between the population change since 2001. The lower net international migration flows experienced level of net internal migration flows evidenced 2001/02–2007/08 and those evidenced over between 2011/12 and 2013/14, have been driven by a fall in immigration, operating in the latter half of the historical period. Net international migration has had a small, positive tandem with a steady increase in emigration to 2013/14; however flows have since impact on population change throughout the historical period. Conversely, natural change recovered (2014/15–2015/16). Net internal out-migration has been evident throughout the has had an annual negative impact on population change (i.e. a greater number of deaths historical period, with a notable reduction in net out-migration in 2012/13, driven by a fall in than births), reflecting an older-age profile of the unitary authority. the number of people moving out of the unitary authority. Hull North Lincolnshire In contrast, Hull has a younger population age profile, driven by annual net international Between 2001/02 and 2007/08, population change in North Lincolnshire was driven by net migration inflows and the positive impact of natural change. Since 2001, net internal international and internal migration. A divergence in net internal migration trends was migration has had a consistently negative impact on population change (i.e. a greater evidenced 2008/09–2014/15, but there has been a higher net internal inflow estimated in the number of people moving out from Hull to the rest of the UK than moving into the Unitary latest 2015/16 MYE. Natural change has had a small but predominantly positive impact on Authority from other local authorities). Over the last two years net out-migration has reduced, population change over the historical period, reducing in the latter years of the historical driven by a small increase in inflows, combined with a fall in outflows. period as a result of a fall in births combined with a small increase in the number of deaths.

Internal Migration Figure 6: Humber unitary authorities’ internal migration flows 2001/02–2015/16 East Riding of Yorkshire Hull Internal migration has a varied impact on population change with the Humber LEP unitary 20,000 20,000 authorities, with only East Riding of Yorkshire experiencing a steady net inflow, whereas Hull and North East Lincolnshire have largely experienced a net outflow since 2001 (Figure 5). 16,000 16,000 North Lincolnshire experienced a net inflow to 2007/08, with smaller but varied net internal 12,000 12,000 migration flows evidenced thereafter. East Riding of Yorkshire has experienced smaller net in-migration over the latter half of the 8,000 8,000 historical period, driven by reduced inflows and a small rise in outflows. This has resulted in 4,000 4,000

a lower annual net migration flow to the unitary authority, averaging +1,170 since 2008/09,

Internal Migration Internal Internal Migration Internal compared to +3,165 over the 2001/02–2007/08 period. 0 0 Out-migration flows from Hull to other parts of the UK have remained relatively stable since 2001/02, averaging -8,807 per annum. Fluctuations in migration flows from local authorities -4,000 -4,000 to Hull has driven the annual variation in net migration, with reduced in-migration over the

2006/07–2010/11 period resulting in a larger net outflow from the unitary authority.

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 North East Lincolnshire has recorded a relatively steady annual outflow since 2001/02, North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire averaging -4,696 per annum, compared to an average annual inflow of +4,217. However, a 7,000 7000 small increase in migration to the unitary authority over the 2010/11–2013/14 period, resulted in a reduced net outflow from North East Lincolnshire. 5,000 5000 Whilst out-migration from North Lincolnshire has remained relatively stable since 2001/02, in-migration has varied. Higher annual net migration recorded to 2003/04 was driven by notably larger inflows to the unitary authority, evidencing a reduced impact in subsequent 3,000 3000 years. Since 2008/09, inflows and outflows have tracked each other, resulting in a small annual impact of net migration. A larger net in-migration flow recorded in 2015/16 has been 1,000 Migration Internal 1000

driven by an increase in inflows, operating in tandem with a small reduction in outflows. Internal Migration Internal

-1,000 -1000

East Riding of Yorkshire and Hull have the strongest migration linkages, with 411 people per year moving from Hull to East Riding of Yorkshire (Figure 9). A smaller net outflow from East Riding of Yorkshire to North Lincolnshire is evidenced, averaging -70 per annum. North East Lincolnshire has been a net contributor of population to Hull, averaging +15 per annum over the last 15-years. Whilst the largest negative net exchange has been with East Riding of Yorkshire, Hull has also been a net exporter to Leeds (averaging -139 per year), North Lincolnshire (-65 per year) and Manchester (-47 per year). For North East Lincolnshire, the largest negative exchange over the 2001/02–2015/16 period has been with North Lincolnshire, averaging -97 people per year, with smaller flows to West Lindsey, Leeds, East Lindsey and East Riding of Yorkshire. The largest positive net flows are with local authorities outside of the Humber LEP, albeit these remain relatively small. Whilst North East Lincolnshire has been a net contributor to population in North Lincolnshire, the largest positive net exchanges for North Lincolnshire have been with Doncaster, averaging +147 per year, with smaller contributions also from East Riding of Yorkshire and Hull. The largest net outflows have been with local authorities outside of the Humber LEP (West Lindsey, Lincoln and Leeds).

Figure 7: Top 10 net internal migration flows (2001/02–2015/16) East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Top Ten Net Inflows Top Ten Net Inflows Top Ten Net Inflows Top Ten Net Inflows

Doncaster 34 Great Yarmouth 3 Lewisham 4 Kirklees 8 Scarborough 35 East Hampshire 3 Erewash 4 Central Bedfordshire… 8 Calderdale 53 Thurrock 3 Croydon 4 Medway 8 Wakefield 89 Dover 3 Fenland 4 Bradford 10 Kirklees 109 Thanet 3 Leicester 6 Selby 10 Selby 121 Newham 4 Medway 6 Rotherham 19 York 182 Southend-on-Sea 5 Thurrock 6 Kingston upon Hull,… 65 Leeds 205 Boston 5 Doncaster 6 East Riding of… 70 Bradford 239 Scarborough 12 Luton 7 North East Lincolnshire 97 Kingston upon Hull,… 411 North East… 15 Bradford 13 Doncaster 147 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 10 20 0 5 10 15 0 100 200 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16

Top Ten Net Outflows Top Ten Net Outflows Top Ten Net Outflows Top Ten Net Outflows North Lincolnshire-70 East Riding of Yorkshire -411 West Lindsey -93 North Lincolnshire -97 Manchester -41 Leeds -139 Lincoln -27 West Lindsey -66 Newcastle upon Tyne -39 North Lincolnshire -65 Leeds -25 Leeds -40 Nottingham -21 Manchester -47 Sheffield East Lindsey -37 -19 Lincoln -19 Sheffield -29 East Riding of Yorkshire -32 Manchester -18 Liverpool -16 Birmingham -28 Lincoln -26 York -17 Camden -13 Wakefield -27 Sheffield -26 Nottingham -15 Westminster -11 Lincoln -21 Manchester -19 Newcastle upon Tyne -14 Tower Hamlets -10 York -20 Nottingham -16 Liverpool -12 South Lakeland -10 Kirklees -19 York -16 Cornwall UA -11 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 -120-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16 Average Net Migration 2001/02–2015/16

Since 2001, over 40% of average net migration flows have been between the Yorkshire and Figure 8: Humber LEP unitary authority average net migration flows (2001/02-2015/16) Humber region and Humber LEP unitary authorities, with approximately 69% of East Riding of Yorkshire’s average net migration coming from the region (Figure 8). Hull and North East Lincolnshire have recorded an average net outflow to the region over the last fifteen years (- 757 pa and -226 pa respectively), whilst East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire have evidenced an average net inflow (+1,512 pa and +367 pa respectively). Hull has also evidenced a net outflow to the North West and London (albeit to a lesser extent than the Yorkshire and Humber region), whilst North and North East Lincolnshire have evidenced migration linkages with neighbouring local authorities in the East Midlands.

Whilst East Riding of Yorkshire and Hull have the largest net migration flows, the migration age profiles are very different. East Riding of Yorkshire has experienced a net inflow in all but the young adult age groups, whilst Hull has experienced a net outflow in all but the student age groups, linked to the annual university inflow. The North East Lincolnshire age profile of net migration is similar to that evidenced by Hull, albeit on a smaller scale, however with a net outflow estimated in the 15–19 student age groups, with a smaller return flow evidenced in the 20–24 age group. North Lincolnshire has experienced a net inflow in all age groups notwithstanding the 15–19 student age group. Figure 9: Average net migration flows by age group (2001/02–2015/16)

East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

600 800 100 200

50 400 600 100 0 200 0 400 -50

0 -100 -100 200 -200 -150 -200 0 -200

-400 -300

Average Net Migration Net Average Migration Net Average Average Net Migration Net Average Average Net Migration Net Average -250 -200 -600 -400 -300

-800 -400 -350 -500

0-4 5-9 0-4 5-9

75+ 75+

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

Retention and growth of its younger adult age groups is a key requirement for the future growth of the Humber LEP’s economy. Domestic migration is redistributing the population, largely from Hull to East Riding of Yorkshire but there is an overall net loss in the youngest adult age groups. International migration has played an important role in replenishing and maintaining the younger adult population across the LEP, particularly in Hull. This is illustrated in the NINo registration profiles that follow.

NINo Registrations Hull has been responsible for approximately 50%–60% of total NINo registrations in the LEP. In 2017, North Lincolnshire experienced an increase in NINo registrations, driven by a significant increase in Romanian workers; whilst all other unitary authorities reflect a fall in registrations, in line with the national and LEP trend. A breakdown of NINo registration by nationality groups reveals that EU13 countries contribute the largest number of workers to the Humber LEP (Figure 10). More specifically, migrant workers from Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria have had a significant impact on NINo registrations since 2012, with the latter two rising sharply since the lifting of restrictions on Bulgarian and Romanian migration to the UK in 2014. Recent NINo registrations reflect a fall from EU13 countries in the Humber LEP (notwithstanding North Lincolnshire), a potential impact of Britain’s decision to leave the EU and ongoing future uncertainty regarding migration controls. Figure 10: NINo registrations by Humber LEP unitary authority

East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000

3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500

3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000

2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

NINo Registrations NINo

NINo Registrations NINo NINo Registrations NINo 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

500 500 500 500

0 0 0 0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Population Age Profile Hull has the youngest population age profile, with only 15% its total 2016 population aged 65+, compared to 25% in East Riding of Yorkshire (Figure 11). North and North East Lincolnshire’s population age profile is more closely aligned to the Humber LEP, with 20% of the population aged 65+ and an old age dependency (OAD) ratio of 5%. Figure 11: MYE 2016 population age profiles (Source: ONS) East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females

80-84 80-84 80-84 80-84 70-74 70-74 70-74 70-74 60-64 60-64 60-64 60-64 50-54 50-54 50-54 50-54 40-44 40-44 40-44 40-44 30-34 30-34 30-34 30-34 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 10-14 10-14 10-14 10-14

0-4 0-4 0-4 0-4

6,000 2,000 2,000 6,000

5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000

6,000 2,000 2,000 6,000

10,000 10,000

15,000 10,000 10,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 15,000

10,000 10,000

Indicator Humber LEP Hull East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Percentage 65+ 20% 15% 25% 20% 20% Percentage 80+ 5% 4% 6% 5% 5% OAD* 33 22 42 32 33 Median Age 43 36 48 42 44 OAD = Old Age Dependency Ratio

At present, the 2014-based SNPP is the latest projection for local authorities in England. For the Humber LEP unitary authorities, the 2014-based SNPP has estimated relatively low population growth rate compared to previous official projections (Figure 12). Figure 12: ONS SNPP comparison

East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

220,000 450,000 330,000 190,000

430,000 185,000 310,000 200,000 410,000 180,000

390,000 290,000 175,000 180,000

370,000 170,000 Population

Population Population Population 270,000 350,000 165,000 160,000 330,000 250,000 160,000

310,000 155,000 140,000 230,000 290,000 150,000

270,000 210,000 145,000 120,000

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037

The projected annual impact of the components of population change varies across the Humber LEP. North Lincolnshire, Hull and North East Lincolnshire are estimated to be driven by net international migration, with population change in the latter two unitary authorities also driven by higher annual natural change; reflective of the younger population age profiles. Conversely, net internal migration is estimated to be the dominant component of population growth in East Riding of Yorkshire, whilst natural change is projected to have an annual negative impact, reflecting the older population age structure. Figure 13: ONS 2014-based SNPP components of population change 2001/02–2027/28 Humber LEP East Riding of Yorkshire Hull 10,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 8,000 4,000 4,000 6,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 0 0 -1,000 -1,000 0

-2,000 -2,000

Population Change Population Change Population Population Change Population -2,000 -3,000 -3,000 -4,000 -4,000

-4,000

2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 2021/22 2023/24 2025/26 2027/28 2029/30 2031/32 2033/34 2035/36 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 2021/22 2023/24 2025/26 2027/28 2029/30 2031/32 2033/34 2035/36

2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 2021/22 2023/24 2025/26 2027/28 2029/30 2031/32 2033/34 2035/36

North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Average annual change 2016-2036 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 Population Net change Natural Net internal international 4,000 4,000 Area (%) change migration migration 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 East Riding of 6.2% -1,143 1,888 311 1,000 1,000 Yorkshire 0 0 North Lincolnshire 4.9% -59 84 396 -1,000 -1,000

-2,000 -2,000 Hull 3.5% 1,211 -1,566 805 Population Change Population Population Change Population -3,000 -3,000 North East 2.0% 108 -64 116 -4,000 -4,000 Lincolnshire

Humber LEP area 4.5% 117 342 1,627

Under the 2014-based SNPP, the population growth rate for the Humber LEP districts is significantly lower than other Northern cities (notwithstanding Sunderland). Manchester is estimated to experience the largest increase over the 2014–2036 period (18.0%), followed by York (15.1%), Sheffield (14.1%) and Leeds (13.1%). Figure 14: SNPP-2014 index of population change (2014–2036)

20% 18.0% 18%

2036) 15.1% - 16% 14.1% 14% 13.1% 11.8% 12% 10.3% 9.3% 10% 8.5% 8.7% 8.9% 8% 6.9% 5.6% 6% 3.6% 4.0% 4% 2.1% 2% Population Change (2014 Change Population 0%

Managed by the team at the West Yorkshire Combined Authority (WYCA), the Regional Figure 15: Annual change in REM FTE jobs (2017/18 – 2035/36) Econometric Model (REM) is an interactive database of economic, demographic and 800 environmental statistics for the Yorkshire and Humber region and a selection of surrounding 700 areas. 600 On a periodic basis, the REM produces ‘baseline’ employment forecasts for each of its local 500 authority areas, calculated using a combination of national and local economic factors and 400 drawing on data from Experian Economics’ Regional Planning Service (RPS). 300 200 UK forecasts drive regional forecasts which in turn drive the local area forecasts produced by 100 the REM. Each local authority’s forecasts are influenced by historical economic performance

Annual Change in Jobs Change Annual 0 as a share of the regional economy to which they contribute. Local and industry sector -100 forecasts differ on the basis of their variant economic structures and historic performance, as

well as on UK-wide relationships and outlook.

2019/20 2021/22 2023/24 2025/26 2027/28 2029/30 2031/32 2033/34 2035/36 The REM employment forecasts that are presented here have been drawn from the latest 2017/18 model outputs generated in 2017. East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Employment Growth Figure 16: REM change in jobs (2017-2036) Over the 2017–2036 outlook period, the total number of (full-time equivalent) jobs in the 16%

Humber LEP is forecast to increase by 20,140, a 5.7% increase. East Riding of Yorkshire is 14%

13.7% 10.4%

estimated to experience the greatest increase of 7,990 jobs (a 7.0% increase), whilst North 12% 10.4%

2036)

8.6%

8.4% 8.2%

East Lincolnshire is estimated to see the smallest growth of +2,590 (4.1%). The annualised 10% 8.1%

7.4%

7.0% 6.9%

8% 5.9%

breakdown of change in jobs indicates higher growth to 2022/23, followed by a period of 5.7% 4.5% lower growth to 2028/29, recovering slightly thereafter (Figure 15). 6% 4.1% 4% Under the REM, the Humber LEP is estimated to experience lower growth than the region 2% and West Yorkshire authorities. West Yorkshire is expected to see the greatest increase in 0% jobs (10.5%), almost twice the growth rate estimated for the Humber LEP (5.7%), primarily

driven by higher growth rates in Leeds (13.7%). The rate of jobs growth estimated in East Change in Jobs (2017 Jobs in Change Riding of Yorkshire is more closely aligned to the estimated growth for Wakefield (6.9%) and Calderdale (7.4%), whilst North and North East Lincolnshire are significantly lower than the other local authorities.

A disaggregation of jobs by broad sector reveals that the greatest increase in the Humber In total, Public Services, Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail and Professional & Other LEP is estimated in Public Services (+17,700), Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation Private Services contribute the largest proportion of jobs in the Humber LEP, comprising (+5,100), Transport & Storage (+4,590) and Other Private Services (+2,720). Conversely, approximately 75% of the total in 2017 (Figure 18). The REM forecasts that these sectors Manufacturing is estimated to experience an overall decline in FTE job numbers over the will continue to dominate the region’s employment profile in 2036. forecast period (Figure 17). The REM forecast of jobs by sector take account of the size of Figure 18: Humber LEP percentage of total jobs by sector (2017 and 2036) the unitary authorities and reflect historic trends, existing sectors and a national outlook going forward. 2017 2036 Figure 17: Change in jobs by broad industry sector (2017–2036)

Total 6% 7.5% 15% 14.7% 6% Wholesale & Retail 6.5% Utilities Transport & Storage 7% 7.8% Public Services

Professional & Other Private Services 19% 14.3% Manufacturing Information & communication Finance & Insurance 27% Extraction & Mining 14% 29.9% 14.3% Construction Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation (Broad Sector) Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (Broad Sector)

Construction (Broad Sector) Extraction & Mining (Broad Sector) 0

Finance & Insurance (Broad Sector) Information & communication (Broad Sector)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 -8,000 Manufacturing (Broad Sector) Professional & Other Private Services (Broad Sector) North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Kingston upon Hull East Riding of Yorkshire Public Services (Broad Sector) Transport & storage (Broad Sector) Utilities (Broad Sector) Wholesale & Retail (Broad Sector)

Similarly, Public Services, Professional & Other Private Services and Wholesale & Retail are At Humber LEP unitary authority level the Public Services, Manufacturing, Wholesale & expected to continue to be the dominant sectors in West Yorkshire, with a larger proportion Retail and Professional & Other Private Services contribute a large proportion of jobs in each of Professional & Other Private Services (21.0%) estimated in West Yorkshire by 2036 area, however Transport & Storage also contributes a relatively large proportion in North and compared to the Humber LEP (14.3%). In addition, the REM suggests that the Finance & North East Lincolnshire (Figure 20). In addition, the Construction sector contributes a greater Insurance and Information & Communication sectors are expected to contribute a greater proportion to North Lincolnshire’s jobs than the other unitary authorities. proportion of total jobs in West Yorkshire than in the Humber LEP, whilst Manufacturing contributes a smaller proportion. Figure 19: West Yorkshire percentage of total jobs by sector (2017 and 2036)

2017 2036

6.5% 7.3% 14.7% 14.1% 5.2% 5.4%

5.7% 6.2%

12.9% 10.1%

24.6% 26.2%

21.0% 20.9%

Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation (Broad Sector) Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (Broad Sector) Construction (Broad Sector) Extraction & Mining (Broad Sector) Finance & Insurance (Broad Sector) Information & communication (Broad Sector) Manufacturing (Broad Sector) Professional & Other Private Services (Broad Sector) Public Services (Broad Sector) Transport & storage (Broad Sector) Utilities (Broad Sector) Wholesale & Retail (Broad Sector)

At unitary authority level the Public Services, Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail and Professional & Other Private Services contribute a large proportion of jobs in each area, however Transport & Storage also contributes a relatively large proportion in North and North East Lincolnshire (Figure 20). In addition, the Construction sector contributes a greater proportion to North Lincolnshire’s jobs than the other unitary authorities. Figure 20: Percentage of total jobs by sector (2017 and 2036)

East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire 2017 2036 2017 2036 7.9% 8.8% 6.6% 14.2% 7.1% 15.3% 14.8% 16.1% 4.7% 4.7% 6.3% 6.7%

5.9% 7.0% 10.3% 14.4% 10.1% 17.6% 15.9% 11.9%

29.3% 14.2% 14.1% 13.5% 31.9% 13.2% 26.6% 31.0% North Lincolnshire Hull 2017 2036 20175.5% 2036 5.6% 6.8% 14.4% 13.4% 6.9% 15.6% 5.4% 15.6% 5.7% 8.6% 9.1%

4.7% 5.7% 9.4% 10.2% 13.5% 20.1% 23.7% 19.5%

27.6% 20.9% 31.1% 17.2% 23.9% 16.9% 11.8% 11.5%

Key Economic Assumptions The REM is underpinned by ONS’ 2014-based sub-national population projection. Within the The impact of relatively small improvements in the participation rate is only small increase in model, the relationship between employment growth and population change is measured by the labour force over the 2017–2036 period, ranging from 1.5% increase (+1,170) in North three key economic assumptions: (i) future economic activity rates (also known as labour East Lincolnshire to 4.9% increase in East Riding of Yorkshire (+8,270). For the Humber force participation rates); (ii) changing unemployment rates; and (iii) area-specific commuting LEP in aggregate, the labour force is estimated to increase by +17,790, a 3.9% increase. ratios measuring where people live and where they work. Figure 22: REM labour force and percentage change (2017–2036) The economic activity rate determines the proportion of the working aged population that are economically active (i.e. the labour force). The labour force includes those who are in work 600,000 (i.e. workers) and those who are unemployed. Under the REM, economic activity rates for all unitary authorities (notwithstanding Hull) are estimated to experience a small reduction over the 2017–2036 period. For Hull, the participation rates are expected to experience a small

500,000 477,350

increase over the forecast period, from 61% in 2017 to 62% by 2036. 459,560 Figure 21: REM economic activity rate (16–89) 400,000 64%

63% 300,000 62%

61% Force Labour 178,960

200,000 170,590

60%

132,630 126,980

Economic Activity Rate Activity Economic 59%

86,700

84,100 79,060 100,000 77,890

58%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0 East Riding of Kingston upon Hull North East North Lincolnshire Humber LEP Total East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull North East Lincolnshire Yorkshire Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Humber LEP Total 2017 2036

The unemployment rate determines the proportion of the labour force that is unemployed The commuting ratio is the balance between the resident number of workers (i.e. the (and as a result, the proportion that is employed). Under the REM, the unemployment rate is employed labour force) and the number of jobs in an area. A commuting ratio greater than expected to reduce or remain relatively stable over the 2017–2036 period for all unitary 1.0 indicates a net out-commute (i.e. the number of resident workers in an area is greater authorities. North Lincolnshire is expected to experience the greatest reduction in its than the number of jobs), whilst a commuting ratio less than 1.0 indicates a net in-commute unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.2%. (i.e. the number of jobs in the area is greater than the number of resident workers). Figure 23: REM unemployment rate 2017-2036 In the baseline REM assumptions for 2017, Hull, North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire each has a net inflow balance of commuting, most significantly in Hull. In 8.0% comparison, East Riding of Yorkshire is a net exporter of labour, with a higher resident labour force than available jobs. 7.0% Over the course of the REM forecast period, each of Hull, North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire is estimated to increase its net inflow through commuting. The East Riding of 6.0% Yorkshire remains a net exporter but at a reduced level. Table 1: Commuting ratio comparison (Census & REM) 5.0% Commuting ratio

4.0% Area 2011 Census REM 2017 REM 2036 East Riding of Yorkshire 1.19 1.14 1.11

3.0% Kingston upon Hull 0.89 0.87 0.85 Unemployment Rate Unemployment North East Lincolnshire 1.00 0.95 0.93 2.0% North Lincolnshire 1.02 0.97 0.95

1.0% Humber LEP 1.03 0.99 0.97

0.0%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull North East Lincolnshire

North Lincolnshire Humber LEP Total

Overall, the REM estimates the commuting ratio for the Humber LEP will diverge from a net out-commute recorded in the 2011 Census (1.03) to a small net in-commute (0.99–0.97). The 2011 Census commuting ratios are compared to the West Yorkshire authorities in Figure 24. Of the Humber LEP and West Yorkshire authorities, only Leeds and Hull indicate a net in-commute (i.e. the number of jobs in the area exceeds the number of resident workers). In all other authorities, a net out-commute is estimated, with Kirklees and East Riding of Yorkshire reflecting the greatest imbalance between jobs and resident workers. Figure 24: 2011 Census commuting ratio comparison

1.40 1.15 1.19 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.00 0.87 0.89 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20

0.00 2011 Cencus Commuting Ratio Commuting Cencus 2011

Whilst the ONS’ 2014-based projections underpin the REM, a number of key demographic Population change in the Humber LEP was higher pre-2011 than it has been since. In order datasets have since been published, providing an alternative demographic outlook on to consider the potential impacts of population change based on alternative short-term and potential population (and subsequent economic) change in the Humber LEP. longer-term migration histories, two additional demographic-led scenarios have been developed using POPGROUP forecasting technology (PG Short Term and PG Long In October 2017, the ONS published the latest 2016-based national population projections Term)(a). These PG trend-based scenarios incorporate the latest assumptions on fertility and (NPP), setting key assumptions on the long-term effects of fertility, mortality and migration. mortality from the 2016-based national population projection, with only the period on which The latest 2016-based national population projection (NPP) estimates a growth of 11.1% for their migration assumptions are calibrated on differing. the UK over the 25-year (2016–2041) period, lower than that estimated under all previous projections (Figure 25). The lower population growth rate estimated under the 2016-based For the Humber LEP, assumptions based on a longer migration history than the SNPP-2014 NPP is driven by assumptions on lower net international migration and fertility. The NPP will and incorporating the latest mid-year population estimates and components of change would inform the 2016-based sub-national population projections for local authorities across suggest higher population change over the 2016–2036 period (Figure 23). Notably higher England, anticipated for release in May/June 2018. population change under the PG Long Term scenarios is driven by increased net in- migration to the Humber LEP, capturing the higher flows recorded at the start of the historical Figure 25: National population projections (Source: ONS) period. The financial crash of 2007 and its subsequent economic impact had a particularly 75,000 significant effect upon population and housing change across the Humber LEP, evidenced in the PG Short Term scenario. Natural change is estimated to have a smaller impact on 73,000 population growth in the Humber LEP, reflecting the lower fertility assumptions from the 2016-based NPP. 71,000 If the same economic assumptions were to be applied (i.e. on participation rates, unemployment rate and commuting ratio), this could support higher economic growth in the 69,000 LEP than currently forecast under the REM. Note: The ONS state that there are two factors that may affect future population are political 67,000 and economic changes. It is not possible to know in advance what impact these will have.

Population (000s) Population On that basis the projections do not attempt to predict the impact of the UK leaving the EU. 65,000 However, the projections of people of State Pension age do reflect future changes under existing legislation. 63,000

61,000

a) Internal migration rates and international migration flow assumptions are derived from different historical periods preceding 2016;

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 PG Long Term – fifteen year historical period (2001/02–2015/16) and PG Short Term – six year historical period (2010/11–2015/16). 2010-based NPP 2012-based NPP 2014-based NPP 2016-based NPP Fertility and mortality assumptions are taken from the latest 2016-based NPP.

Figure 26: Humber LEP population change under the demographic scenarios (2016– It is evident that a continuation of migration trends evidenced since 2001 would result in 2026, 2016-2031 & 2016-2036) higher population and subsequent economic growth for all unitary authorities. For East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire, increased domestic migration flows are 9.0% 8.5% estimated to be a key driver of population growth over the 2016–2036 period. In addition, 8.0% increased net international migration flows to North Lincolnshire, based on the longer term 7.0% migration history, contribute to higher population change under the PG Long Term scenario. 6.0% Higher population change estimated under the PG Long Term scenario for Hull is driven by 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% increased net international migration, operating in tandem with a reduced net outflow of domestic migration. 4.0% 3.0% Whilst the SNPP-2014 scenario estimates a level of population growth that is higher than the PG Short Term scenario for East Riding of Yorkshire and North East Lincolnshire, lower

Population Change Population 2.0% 1.0% population growth is forecast for Hull and North Lincolnshire (Figure 27). 0.0% SNPP 2014 PG Short Term PG Long Term

Notes: a. Internal migration rates and international migration flow assumptions are derived from different historical periods preceding 2016; PG Long Term – fifteen year historical period (2001/02–2015/16) and PG Short Term – six year historical period (2010/11–2015/16) Population Change Change 2016–2026 Change 2016–2031 Change 2016–2036 SNPP-2014 24,210 2.6% 33,810 3.6% 41,709 4.5% PG Short Term 23,471 2.5% 33,063 3.6% 40,874 4.4% PG Long Term 44,560 4.8% 63,196 6.8% 78,837 8.5%

Figure 27: Population change under the demographic scenarios

East Riding of Yorkshire Hull North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.2%

9.9% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

8.2%

2036)

2036) 2036) 2036)

- - - 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%

6.2% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.0%

4.9% Change (2016 Change 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0%

3.2%

Population Change (2016 Change Population

Population Population (2016 Change Population (2016 Change Population 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PG Short SNPP 2014 PG Long SNPP 2014 PG Short PG Long PG Short SNPP 2014 PG Long SNPP 2014 PG Short PG Long Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term

East Riding of Population Change Yorkshire Change 2016–2026 Change 2016–2031 Change 2016–2036 PG Short Term 8,512 2.5% 12,055 3.6% 14,402 4.3% SNPP-2014 12,609 3.7% 17,519 5.2% 21,106 6.2% PG Long Term 19,226 5.7% 27,188 8.0% 33,298 9.9%

Population Change Hull Change 2016–2026 Change 2016–2031 Change 2016–2036 SNPP-2014 4,581 1.8% 6,941 2.7% 8,986 3.5% PG Short Term 7,581 2.9% 11,095 4.3% 14,322 5.5% PG Long Term 11,414 4.4% 16,601 6.4% 21,247 8.2%

North East Population Change Lincolnshire Change 2016–2026 Change 2016–2031 Change 2016–2036 SNPP-2014 1,819 1.1% 2,450 1.5% 3,192 2.0% PG Short Term 1,224 0.8% 1,565 1.0% 1,937 1.2% PG Long Term 2,865 1.8% 4,028 2.5% 5,165 3.2%

North Population Change Lincolnshire Change 2016–2026 Change 2016–2031 Change 2016–2036 SNPP 2014 5,200 3.1% 6,900 4.1% 8,425 4.9% PG Short Term 6,154 3.6% 8,348 4.9% 10,214 6.0% PG Long Term 11,055 6.5% 15,380 9.0% 19,127 11.2%

The changing age structure of the Humber LEP population is important when considering Age 2016–2026 2016–2031 2016–2036 future economic growth and the progression of its working age groups. An older population Group age profile is projected under the SNPP-2014, with an estimated decline in the 16–74 age SNPP-2014 PG Long Term SNPP-2014 PG Long Term SNPP-2014 PG Long Term groups compared to growth in the older 75+ age groups (Figure 28). A larger increase in the 0–15 1,455 4,782 -2,191 3,129 -3,879 3,193 75+ age groups is estimated over the longer time period, whilst a smaller change is 16–74 -8,573 12,271 -7,435 22,076 -11,659 24,634 estimated in the younger 0–15 age groups, reflecting an ageing population profile for the Humber LEP. This would suggest that higher participation rates would be required in the 75+ 31,327 27,506 43,434 37,991 57,245 51,011 older 75+ age groups to achieve overall growth in the labour force (i.e. economically active population). The younger population age profile estimated under the PG Long Term scenario would maintain a larger 16–74 labour force through higher net migration to the LEP, a critical support for continued economic growth in the LEP. Figure 28: Humber LEP population change by age group under SNPP-2014 & PG Long Term (2016-2026, 2016-2031 & 2016-2036) 70,000

60,000 57,245

51,011 2036)

– 50,000

40,000

30,000 24,634

20,000

10,000 3,193

0 Population Change (2016 Change Population -10,000 -3,879 -11,659 -20,000 0–15 16–74 75+ SNPP-2014 PG Long Term

At unitary authority level, a similar trend is reflected for each area, with the SNPP-2014 projecting an older population profile than the PG Long Term scenario (Figure 29). In all areas, the PG Long Term scenario estimates growth in the 16–74 age groups (compared to a decline under the SNPP-2014), and a smaller increase in the 75+ age groups. It is difficult to determine the likely level of population growth in the Humber LEP, as ultimately a mixture of demographic trends, economic and policy decisions will influence future growth levels. Migration trends based on the last fifteen years provide a more positive outlook for the Humber LEP; for both demographic change and the associated economic growth that this could potentially support. Conversely, a continuation of historical shorter-term migration trends suggests lower growth in the LEP over the 2016–2036 period. Figure 29: Population change by age group under SNPP-2014 & PG Long Term (2016-2026, 2016-2031 & 2016-2036)

East Riding of Yorkshire Hull 2016–2026 2016–2031 2016–2036 Age 30,000 30,000 Area Group PG Long PG Long PG Long

SNPP-2014 SNPP-2014 SNPP-2014 2036)

25,000 2036) 25,000 Term Term Term

– – 20,000 20,000 0–15 1,082 1,825 348 1,769 -34 2,057 15,000 15,000 East Riding of 16–74 -4,769 2,206 -4,372 5,416 -6,242 5,526 10,000 10,000 Yorkshire 5,000 5,000 75+ 16,296 15,195 21,542 20,003 27,381 25,715 0 0 0–15 1,293 2,620 -29 1,992 -586 2,010

-5,000 -5,000 Population Change (2016 Change Population -10,000 (2016 Change Population -10,000 Hull 16–74 -861 5,787 472 9,720 60 11,630 0–15 16–74 75+ 0–15 16–74 75+ 75+ 4,148 3,007 6,498 4,888 9,512 7,607 North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire 0–15 -242 -493 -1,145 -1,403 -1,552 -1,727 30,000 30,000 25,000 North East 2036) 25,000

2036) 16–74 -2,384 -268 -2,682 326 -3,729 -206 –

– Lincolnshire 20,000 20,000 75+ 4,444 3,626 6,276 5,104 8,472 7,099 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 0–15 -678 831 -1,365 771 -1,707 852 5,000 North 5,000 16–74 -559 4,546 -853 6,614 -1,747 7,684 0 Lincolnshire 0 -5,000 75+ 6,438 5,678 9,118 7,995 11,880 10,591 -5,000

Population Change (2016 Change Population -10,000 Population Change (2016 Change Population -10,000 0–15 16–74 75+ 0–15 16–74 75+ SNPP-2014 PG Long Term © 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 151 3. Economic relationships Headlines

Introduction The second strongest linkage is between North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire, albeit with movement at a smaller scale. Nearly 5,000 commute This section of the report examines a range of data sources to look at the from North East Lincolnshire to North Lincolnshire, representing nearly 8% of different relationships and linkages that exist between places inside and the resident population. While nearly 4,000 commute from North Lincolnshire to outside the Humber. This section does this by providing an overview of people North East Lincolnshire, representing nearly 6% of the resident population. flows, commuting patterns, travel to work areas and the volume of rail and road traffic. As part of this, this section also looks at the role of reducing the Humber Commuter flows that cross the Humber tend to be weaker, although there is Bridge toll and the impact it has had on travel flows. Learner data provided by evidence to suggest that this is increasing. The patterns from South to North the University of Hull and a number of further education institutions has also tend to be marginally stronger. North Lincolnshire has 3.8% of the resident been analysed to see if numbers of learners and geographic draw has spread population commuting to either Kingston upon Hull (2.10%) or East Riding of over time. Yorkshire (1.67%). While 1.7% commute from North East Lincolnshire to either Kingston Upon Hull (1.13%) or East Riding of Yorkshire (0.54%). In contrast, Through this analysis the following headline themes are apparent. 1.3% of residents in Kingston Upon Hull make the journey to either North The Humber LEP economy is self-contained Lincolnshire (0.61%) or North East Lincolnshire (0.72%) and 1.3% of East Riding of Yorkshire residents commute into either North Lincolnshire (0.87%) or Commuting patterns based on census data show that the resident population North East Lincolnshire (0.43%). tend to also work in the Humber area, with only a small percentage of residents Analysis of Humber Bridge traffic flow data suggests that linkages across the commuting beyond the LEP boundary. This is most evident with residents of Humber appear to be increasing. Traffic flow across the bridge has increased Kingston upon Hull where over 95% work in the Humber LEP area. For from 6.0m vehicles in 1999/2000 to 9.8m vehicles in 2017/2018. The reduction residents of East Riding of Yorkshire the proportion is 85%, for North East of the toll in April 2012 appears to have had an impact on this. While the Lincolnshire it is 92% and North Lincolnshire it is 86%. This highlights that as a number of vehicles remained relatively stable between 1999/00 to 2010/11, geography the Humber is a functional economic area. since 2012/13 the number has jumped from 6.4m to 9.8m in 2017/2018 The strongest linkage within the area is between East Riding of Yorkshire and representing growth of over 50%. The strengthening of linkages across the Kingston upon Hull, where a large number commute in each direction. Over Humber is reinforced through the analysis of Highways England data which 33,000 people commute from East Riding of Yorkshire to Kingston upon Hull, shows large increases in traffic flow between the Humber Bridge and Hull, as accounting for 25.8% of the total out commuters from the authority. While over well as large increases between the Humber Bridge, Grimsby and Immingham. 18,000 make the reverse journey from Kingston upon Hull to East Riding of Yorkshire, representing nearly one in five of the resident population.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 153 There is need to create strategic linkages to support future While congestion is a factor affecting linkages it can also be viewed as growth evidence of strengthening linkages . Road traffic counts have increased in all four authorities since 2000. Of the four Local Authorities, North Lincolnshire With the majority of commuters staying within the area, there is opportunity to has seen the largest increase in the volume of traffic between 2000 and 2016 strengthen the linkages beyond the Humber LEP boundary and therefore rising by almost 25%. East Riding also saw a large increase in volume of traffic expand the functional economic area. Of the four authorities, East Riding of (18.6%), while there were also increases North East Lincolnshire (12.6%) and Yorkshire has the largest proportion of resident population commuting outside Kingston upon Hull (6.8%) though to a lesser degree. These growth rates are of the LEP area, with residents travelling to York (4.3%), Selby (2.0%), Leeds high when compared to those seen by other areas in the North of England over (1.5%) and Scarborough (1.5%). While the strongest linkages for residents of the same period, such as York (10.6%), Liverpool (7.6%), Bradford (4.0%), North Lincolnshire are with Doncaster (3.9%), West Lindsey (2.2%) and Lincoln Sheffield (3.8% and Manchester (2.4%). (0.7%) and for North East Lincolnshire are with East Lindsey (2.1%), West Rail traffic has also seen strong growth in the Humber LEP area, with ticket Lindsey (1.4%) and Lincoln (0.42%). The proportion of residents in Kingston sales growing by 18.2% on average across the Humber LEP area with the vast upon Hull that commute outside of the LEP area is much smaller than the other majority of stations experiencing growth. The greatest number of ticket sales in authorities. The strongest relationships are with Leeds (0.4%), York (0.3%) and 2017 were in Hull, Beverley, Bridlington, Brough, Grimsby Town and Ryedale (0.3%) though the numbers are low. Scunthorpe stations. While the greatest proportional change over the period of With road transport the primary method of travelling to work, connectivity may 2007-2017 was seen in New Clee, Brigg and Kirton Lindsey. be one barrier to extending economic linkages within and beyond the Humber When analysing data from the University of Hull and further education area. In particular, this appears to be an issue with Hull. Analysis of drive time institutions within the Humber area it is clear that the number of learners catchments show that a 60 minute drive from the centre of Hull+ would barely coming into the area from EU and non-EU countries is increasing. It is extend beyond the LEP area boundary. In contrast, the 60 minute drive time important that these learners remain in the Humber LEP after study and work. catchments for the other economic centres – Grimsby+, Scunthorpe+ and the South Humber Bank – show more expansive geographies can be reached. For The most significant outflow of people from the Humber area to elsewhere in example, the catchment for Grimsby encompasses Doncaster, Lincoln and the UK is the young adult age group (15-29), with a net outflow of 1,300 each Skegness and the catchment for Scunthorpe includes Wakefield, Doncaster, year associated with moves for higher education and employment Lincoln and parts of Sheffield. Travel congestion appears to be another opportunities. As the workforce of the future, this has significant implications for element affecting this, with average delays on A roads in Kingston upon Hull the future economic growth of the sub-region. Attracting young adults to the greater than the national average, while levels of congestion in the other three region, and encouraging those that live in the region to stay through the authorities are low relative to the rest of England. provision of both good jobs but also a vibrant cultural offer are therefore important policy priorities.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 154 By looking through the four lenses of economic themes, trends, centres and relationships a number of important finding about the scale and nature of the Humber economy have emerged. These findings need to shape and influence policy and action over the coming decade in order to build on strengths, address weaknesses and maximise opportunity.

Where does the workforce originate from? (%)

Kingston upon Hull East Riding of Yorkshire

1.06 Place of work 1.24 3.07 0.61 0.32 9.86 Census 2011 data can be used to track the movement of people between their local 17.79 authority of residence and workplace, providing insight into commuter patterns across the Humber LEP. 29.56 • The pie charts illustrate where the workplace population are originating from for each of the four authorities. 65.52 • This shows that 65.5% of the workplace population in Kingston upon Hull is 70.96 originating from within the authority, and then the second greatest proportion is made up of East Riding of Yorkshire residents, at 29.6%.

• Of those working in East Riding of Yorkshire, 70.9% are commuting from within the Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire authority itself and 17.8% from Kingston upon Hull. North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Other • Of those working in North East Lincolnshire, 81.14% are commuting from within the Other authority, and the second highest source of workers is North Lincolnshire, with North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire residents from here making up 6.2% of the workforce. 0.92 1.72 1.14 0.89 • In North Lincolnshire, 77.3% of the workforce population originates from within the authority itself and 7.2% are commuting in from North East Lincolnshire 10.66 12.86 7.19 6.17

81.14 77.31

Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Other Other

The tables below shows the proportional breakdown of the workplace population in terms of where people have commuted in from.

Kingston upon Hull East Riding of Yorkshire

Rank Usual residence Number % The four Humber LEP authorities Rank Usual residence Number % Unlike Kingston upon Hull, there is 1 Kingston upon Hull, City of 73454 65.52 are by far the greatest source of 1 East Riding of Yorkshire 73929 70.96 higher numbers of commuters originating from outside the LEP 2 East Riding of Yorkshire 33138 29.56 workers into Kingston Upon Hull, 2 Kingston upon Hull, City of 18534 17.79 jointly accounting for 95.08% of the area. Here we see York being the 3 North Lincolnshire 1391 1.24 3 York 1957 1.88 workplace population. Looking third highest source of workers at 4 North East Lincolnshire 685 0.61 beyond the Humber LEP area, 4 Doncaster 1631 1.57 1,957, representing 1.88% of the 5 York 323 0.29 York and Leeds provide the next 5 Selby 1607 1.54 work place population, followed by 6 Leeds 308 0.27 highest number of workers, but the 6 North Lincolnshire 1107 1.06 Doncaster at 1.54%. 7 Doncaster 255 0.23 numbers are much lower and 7 Scarborough 856 0.82 8 Selby 205 0.18 represent less than 1% of the 8 Leeds 554 0.53 9 Wakefield 162 0.14 workplace population in Hull. 9 Ryedale 454 0.44 10 Scarborough 152 0.14 10 Wakefield 394 0.38 11 West Lindsey 133 0.12 11 North East Lincolnshire 330 0.32 12 Sheffield 105 0.09 12 Rotherham 162 0.16 13 Ryedale 85 0.08 13 Kirklees 149 0.14 14 Kirklees 83 0.07 14 Sheffield 138 0.13 15 Bradford 73 0.07 15 Harrogate 129 0.12 16 East Lindsey 65 0.06 16 West Lindsey 120 0.12 17 Rotherham 55 0.05 17 Hambleton 114 0.11 18 Lincoln 45 0.04 18 Bradford 97 0.09 19 Gedling 45 0.04 19 Barnsley 75 0.07 20 Harrogate 37 0.03 20 Stockton-on-Tees 62 0.06

North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Rank Usual residence Number % North East Lincolnshire is the most Rank Usual residence Number % Similarly to North East Lincolnshire, 1 North East Lincolnshire 49985 81.14 self contained of the four areas, 1 North Lincolnshire 50420 77.31 North Lincolnshire is relatively self- having the highest proportion of contained, with over 77% of the 2 North Lincolnshire 3803 6.17 2 North East Lincolnshire 4692 7.19 residents commuting from within work place population commuting 3 East Lindsey 3336 5.42 the local authority area at 81.14%. 3 West Lindsey 2944 4.51 from within the local authority area. 4 West Lindsey 1760 2.86 Residents from neighbouring North 4 Doncaster 1995 3.06 Outside of the LEP area, West 5 Kingston upon Hull, City of 704 1.14 Lincolnshire makes up the second 5 East Riding of Yorkshire 1119 1.72 Lindsey and Doncaster provides 6 East Riding of Yorkshire 548 0.89 highest proportion of workers, 6 Kingston upon Hull, City of 601 0.92 the largest source of workers at 7 Doncaster 215 0.35 followed by East Lindsey (5.42%) 7 Bassetlaw 440 0.67 4.51% and 3.06% respectively. and West Lindsey (2.86%). 8 Lincoln 154 0.25 8 East Lindsey 356 0.55 9 Sheffield 88 0.14 9 Rotherham 248 0.38 10 North Kesteven 57 0.09 10 Lincoln 241 0.37 11 Leeds 44 0.07 11 Sheffield 212 0.33 12 Barnsley 34 0.06 12 Barnsley 158 0.24 13 Rotherham 34 0.06 13 Leeds 156 0.24 14 South Kesteven 34 0.06 14 Selby 117 0.18 15 York 29 0.05 15 North Kesteven 112 0.17 16 Boston 28 0.05 16 Wakefield 109 0.17 17 Stockton-on-Tees 18 0.03 17 Bradford 62 0.10 18 Gwynedd 18 0.03 18 York 61 0.09 19 Belfast 17 0.03 19 Kirklees 55 0.08 20 Bassetlaw 15 0.02 20 Bolsover 42 0.06

Where are residents commuting to? (%) From East Riding of Yorkshire to… From Kingston upon Hull to…

Resident commuter destination 0.72 0.61 4.62 15.39 Census 2011 data can be used to track the movement of people between their 0.87 0.43 local authority of residence and workplace, providing commuter patterns. 25.79 18.95 • The pie charts illustrate where people are commuting to from their place of residence, broken down by proportions. • This shows that 75.09% of Kingston upon Hulls residents work within the local authority area, whilst 18.95% of the residents commute to East Riding 75.09 of Yorkshire. 57.53 • In East Riding of Yorkshire, only 57.53% of the resident population work within the area, indicating that a high proportion of people are commuting Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of East Riding of Yorkshire outside the area. Approximately a quarter of the resident population North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire commute to Kingston upon Hull, and 15.39% of residents are commuting to Other Other areas outside the Humber LEP- the largest figure of all four areas. From North East Lincolnshire to… From North Lincolnshire to… • In North East Lincolnshire, 82.32% of the resident population work within the 1.13 2.10 0.54 1.67 authority, which is the highest figure of the four areas indicating a highly self contained economy. 8.29 14.32 5.74 7.73 • In North Lincolnshire, 76.17% of the resident population work within the area, whist 14.32% commuting outside the LEP area.

82.32 76.17

The tables below shows where the residents of each authority are commuting to, in terms of both total number and proportion.

Kingston upon Hull East Riding of Yorkshire

Rank Usual residence Number % Over 95% of residents within Rank Usual residence Number % Compared to Kingston upon Hull, a much smaller proportion of 1 Kingston upon Hull, City of 73454 75.09 Kingston upon Hull work within the 1 East Riding of Yorkshire 73929 57.53 Humber LEP area. Outside of the residents work within the LEP area, 2 East Riding of Yorkshire 18534 18.95 2 Kingston upon Hull, City of 33138 25.79 LEP area, Leeds attracts the most and only 57% of residents live and 3 North East Lincolnshire 704 0.72 residents with 393 travelling there, 3 York 5464 4.25 work in the local authority area. 4 North Lincolnshire 601 0.61 although this is only a fraction of 4 Selby 2524 1.96 Outside the LEP area, York is the 5 Leeds 393 0.40 the total commuting population. 5 Leeds 1858 1.45 most popular worker destination for 6 York 288 0.29 6 Scarborough 1622 1.26 residents, with over 4% travelling to 7 Ryedale 276 0.28 7 North Lincolnshire 1119 0.87 this city. 8 Wakefield 252 0.26 8 Ryedale 1016 0.79 9 Doncaster 149 0.15 9 Wakefield 1010 0.79 10 Selby 130 0.13 10 Doncaster 991 0.77 11 Scarborough 115 0.12 11 North East Lincolnshire 548 0.43 12 County Durham 111 0.11 12 Hambleton 368 0.29 13 Bolsover 79 0.08 13 Bradford 270 0.21 14 Sheffield 73 0.07 14 Harrogate 269 0.21 15 Bassetlaw 70 0.07 15 Sheffield 245 0.19 16 Kirklees 66 0.07 16 Kirklees 219 0.17 17 Nottingham 64 0.07 17 Rotherham 157 0.12 18 Northampton 61 0.06 18 Westminster,City of London 130 0.10 19 Hambleton 60 0.06 19 Bassetlaw 91 0.07 20 Salford 58 0.06 20 Calderdale 87 0.07

North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire

Rank Usual residence Number % North East Lincolnshire is the most Rank Usual residence Number % Whilst the majority of residents work self contained of the four areas, within the area (76.17%) there is 1 North East Lincolnshire 49985 82.32 1 North Lincolnshire 50420 76.17 having the highest proportion of more of spread in terms of where 2 North Lincolnshire 4692 7.73 residents living and working in the 2 North East Lincolnshire 3803 5.74 people are commuting out to. 3 East Lindsey 1257 2.07 area (82.32%). Neighbouring East 3 Doncaster 2605 3.94 Outside of the LEP area, Doncaster 4 West Lindsey 864 1.42 Lindsey and West Lindsey are the 4 West Lindsey 1421 2.15 is the most popular workplace destination for North Lincolnshire 5 Kingston upon Hull, City of 685 1.13 next two most popular workplace 5 Kingston upon Hull, City of 1391 2.10 destination for NE Lincolnshire residents, attracting 2,605 residents, 6 East Riding of Yorkshire 330 0.54 residents, outside the LEP area, 6 East Riding of Yorkshire 1107 1.67 representing 3.94% of the resident 7 Lincoln 253 0.42 accounting jointly for around 3% of 7 Lincoln 463 0.70 population. 8 Leeds 194 0.32 residents. 8 Bassetlaw 435 0.66 9 Doncaster 188 0.31 9 Leeds 401 0.61 10 North Kesteven 98 0.16 10 Sheffield 370 0.56 11 Wakefield 80 0.13 11 Rotherham 250 0.38 12 Sheffield 71 0.12 12 Wakefield 218 0.33 13 Kirklees 68 0.11 13 North Lanarkshire 200 0.30 14 York 52 0.09 14 North Kesteven 164 0.25 15 Westminster,City of London 49 0.08 15 Coventry 154 0.23 16 Aberdeen City 46 0.08 16 Selby 150 0.23 17 Bassetlaw 43 0.07 17 East Lindsey 138 0.21 18 Rotherham 38 0.06 18 Calderdale 115 0.17 19 Richmondshire 36 0.06 19 York 96 0.15 20 Broxbourne 34 0.06 20 Kirklees 82 0.12

Movement of workers between LEP authorities The map to the left shows the movement of people Kingston upon Hull between the four LEP authorities, with graded arrows to East Riding of Yorkshire represent the scale of movement. North Lincolnshire This highlights the strong linkages between East Riding North East Lincolnshire of Yorkshire and Kingston upon Hull, with large number flowing into the other. Over 30,000 people commute from East Riding of Yorkshire into Hull, accounting for 25.8% of the total out commuters. The map also shows the commuter linkages between North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire, although the scale of movement is much smaller. The flows across authorities tend to be reasonably balanced. The exception to this is the flows between East Riding of Yorkshire and Kingston Upon Hull, where 18,534 33,138 the flows into Hull from East Riding of Yorkshire are significantly greater than the flows from Hull to East Riding of Yorkshire.

685 1,107 1,119 704 1,391 601

548 330

4,692

3,803

Background Humber TTWA’s (2011 definition) TTWAs have been developed to approximate self-contained labour market areas. These are areas where most people both live and work and therefore relatively few commuters cross a TTWA boundary on their way to work. As such they are based on statistical analysis rather than administrative boundaries. TTWAs can cross national boundaries, although no account is taken of commuting between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. In total there are 228 TTWAs in the UK. This includes 151 English TTWAs, 46 Scottish TTWAs, 21 TTWAs in Wales and 10 TTWAs in Northern Ireland. Within these there are 6 cross border TTWAs. Larger TTWAs reflect greater distances travelled to work, whilst smaller TTWAs reflect shorter distances travelled to work. The 2011 TTWA boundaries shown in this main TTWA map were produced by professor Mike Coombes of Newcastle University and carried out via an algorithm model followed by a secondary process to produce fully contiguous areas. The current criteria for defining TTWAs are that at least 75% of the area's resident workforce work in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area also live in the area. The area must also have an economically active population of at least 3,500. However, for areas with a working population in excess of 25,000, self-containment rates as low as 66.7% are accepted as part of a limited “trade-off” between workforce size and level of self-containment. The resulting pattern is that many areas are much larger than others – indeed, much of London and its surrounding area forms one TTWA. Contains OS data © Crown Copyright and database right 2017 In Humber there are 5 TTWA’s – Hull, Scunthorpe, Grimsby, York and Bridlington, as shown in the map to the right.

Using a best in class cloud-based travel time capability, we have created travel time catchments around each of the key economic hubs. Travel time calculations are based on an up to date version of the transport network – our partner updates the network on a regular basis to take account of changes to the road and public transport networks. For this project we have used a 30 minute and 60 minute drivetime. The purpose of these catchments is to understand the ease at which people can travel to and from economic hubs and analyse the populations that can be reached within the catchments. Hull Grimsby

The 30 minute catchment from the centre of the Hull economic hub is the smallest The 30 minute catchment from the centre of the Grimsby economic hub is elongated, catchment of the four economic hubs analysed and it falls entirely with the Humber LEP taking in the whole of NE Lincolnshire and extending South beyond the extent of the LEP area. The 60 minute drivetime encompasses much of the LEP area and doesn’t extend area. The 60 minute catchment stretches in a similar direction down towards Skegness, much further beyond the edge of this, with the exceptions of areas to the South of the LEP. and does not reach as far as some of the northern sections of the Humber LEP.

Scunthorpe South Humber Bank

The 30 minute catchment from the centre of Scunthorpe economic hub is the largest of the The 30 minute catchment from the centre of South Humber Bank is of similar scale to the four catchments, encompassing nearly all of North Lincolnshire and surrounding areas. Scunthorpe 430 minute catchment but is sifted more to the east, encompassing much of The 60 minute catchment is also very large and stretches much further beyond the extent North East Lincolnshire. The 60 minute catchment is also sizeable, encompassing the of the Humber LEP, taking in Wakefield, Doncaster, Lincoln and parts of Sheffield. majority of the LEP area but also expanding further afield to take in Doncaster and Lincoln.

Employees (no.) The bar chart shows the aggregated employee numbers 2,000,000 1,833,275 within each of the drive times around the key economic 1,800,000 hubs. 1,600,000 This illustrates that the Scunthorpe 60 minute catchment has the largest employee numbers, totalling 1,400,000 1,833,275. The difference in figures between the 30 1,200,000 minute and 60 minute catchment reflects the much 1,000,000 871,350 wider area that can be reached when the drive time from Scunthorpe is increased to an hour. 800,000 599,745 Within the 30 minute catchments, Hull has the highest 600,000 436,170 number of employees, at 168,140. 400,000 168,140 154,950 200,000 104,500 120,465 0

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (2016)

Enterprises (no.) The bar chart shows the aggregated number of 140,000 enterprises within each of the drive times around the 124,700 key economic hubs. 120,000 This illustrates that the Scunthorpe 60 minute catchment has the largest number of businesses, 100,000 totalling 124,700. whilst the Hull 60 minute catchment has the smallest (35,625). 80,000 65,665 Within the 30 minute catchment, South Humber Bank 60,000 has the highest number of businesses at 11,575. 47,545

40,000 35,625

20,000 11,575 7,620 10,745 10,425

Source: UK Business counts (2017)

Population (no.) The bar chart shows the aggregated resident population 4,500,000 number within each of the drive times around the key 3,915,925 4,000,000 economic hubs. This illustrates that the Scunthorpe 60 minute 3,500,000 catchment has the largest population, totalling 3,000,000 3,915,925 people.

2,500,000 Within the 30 minute catchment, Hull has the greatest 2,044,017 population, at 385,366. 2,000,000 1,415,737 1,500,000 1,085,431 1,000,000 385,366 500,000 250,938 362,842 316,584

Source: Mid-year Population Estimates (2016)

The bar chart above shows the contrasting economic activity and employment Resident occupation types (%) rates between the three travel to work areas. Scunthorpe TTWA has the highest economic activity rate and employment rate, at 78.7% and 74.9% respectively. By contrast, Grimsby TTWA has the lowest economic activity rate 1: managers, directors and employment rate at 73.7% and 70.1% respectively. and senior officials (SOC2010) The spider chart shows the resident occupation types broken down by the main 1 0.9 9: elementary 2: professional SOC sectors. This illustrates that all three TTWA’s have above average 0.8 occupations (SOC2010) occupations (SOC2010) proportions of residents working in process plant and machine operatives. Of 0.7 the three, Scunthorpe TTWA has the highest proportion of residents employed 0.6 0.5 in skilled trades occupations (16.1%), whilst Grimsby TTWA has the highest 0.4 8: process, plant and 0.3 proportion of residents employed in caring, leisure and other service 3: associate prof & tech machine operatives 0.2 occupations (12.7%). occupations (SOC2010) (SOC2010) 0.1 Economic activity and employement 0

80.0 78.0 7: sales and customer 4: administrative and service occupations secretarial occupations 76.0 (SOC2010) (SOC2010) 74.0 6: caring, leisure and 5: skilled trades % 72.0 other service occupations (SOC2010) 70.0 occupations (SOC2010) 68.0 66.0 64.0 Grimsby Hull Scunthorpe

Economic activity rate - aged 16-64 Employment rate - aged 16-64 Hull Grimsby Scunthorpe

Source: Annual Population Survey (2017)

Vehicle ownership

On average across England & Wales, 25.6% households have no vehicles. Vehicle ownership, 2011

In comparison, both East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire had a lower proportion 50 than this at 17.6% and 20.7% respectively. While 30.8% of households in North East Lincolnshire and 40.6% of households in Kingston Upon Hull had no vehicle. 45 43.9 43.5 43.5 The average number of households in England & Wales who have at least one or more 42.2 42.3 vehicles was 74.3%. 40.6 40 In comparison, both East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire had a proportion greater than this, with 82.4% of households in East Riding of Yorkshire having at least one vehicle and 79.3% in North Lincolnshire having at least one vehicle. Conversely North East Lincolnshire and 35 Kingston Upon Hull had a proportion lower than the average for England & Wales, with 69.2% 30.8 in North East Lincolnshire having at least one vehicle, and 59.4% in Kingston Upon Hull having 29.6 30 at least one vehicle. 27.5 25.6 While the average number of households in England & Wales who have two or more vehicles 24.7 was 66.9%. 25 Again, both East Riding of Yorkshire (73.9%) and North Lincolnshire (71.0%) had a proportion 20.8 20.7 20 greater than this and North East Lincolnshire (64.3%) and Kingston Upon Hull (56.5%) were 17.6 below the average for England and Wales. 4 or more 14.2 No cars or 1 car or van 2 cars or 3 cars or 15 cars or Area vans in in vans in vans in vans in household household household household household 10 England and Wales 25.6 42.2 24.7 5.5 1.9 6.6 6.3 5.5 East Riding of Yorkshire 17.6 43.9 29.6 6.6 2.3 5 3.8 Kingston upon Hull 40.6 42.3 14.2 2.3 0.6 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.1 North East Lincolnshire 30.8 43.5 20.8 3.8 1.1 0.6 North Lincolnshire 20.7 43.5 27.5 6.3 2 0 England and East Riding of Kingston upon North East North Lincolnshire Manchester 44.5 40.6 12.5 1.8 0.5 Wales Yorkshire Hull, City of Lincolnshire Liverpool 46.1 38.1 13.1 2.1 0.5 York 26.1 46.7 22.2 3.8 1.2 No cars or vans in household 1 car or van in household 2 cars or vans in household Doncaster 27.8 43.5 22.9 4.6 1.3 3 cars or vans in household 4 or more cars or vans in household Sheffield 33 42.5 19.9 3.5 1 Source: ONS (2011) Car or van availability Leeds 32.1 41.6 21.5 3.7 1.2 Lincoln 29.6 46.8 19.3 3.4 1 © 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 173 Method of travel to work

Method of travel to work Method of travel to work

The method of travel to work data shows that the most common method of 50 getting to work in all four Local Authorities was by ‘driving a car or van’. In East Riding of Yorkshire the proportion was 43.6%, in Kingston Upon Hull it was 45 31.0%, in North East Lincolnshire it was 38.9% and in North Lincolnshire it was 40 44.9%. This was similar to the trend in England and Wales where 37.1% travelled to work by ‘driving a car or van’. 35 Travelling to work by bus, minibus or coach was lower than the national 30 average in three of the four local authorities. Only Kingston Upon Hull (7.6%)

% 25 was above the average for England and Wales (4.7%). In East Riding of Yorkshire it was 1.8%, in North East Lincolnshire it was 3.7% and in North 20 Lincolnshire it was 1.5%. 15 The proportion that work mainly at or from home was also lower in three of the four authorities than the national average. Only East Riding of Yorkshire (4.0%) 10 was above the average for England and Wales (3.5%). In Kingston Upon Hull it 5 was 1.1%, in North East Lincolnshire it was 1.7% and in North Lincolnshire it was 2.7%. 0

East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire England and Wales

Source: ONS (2011) Method of travel to work

Method of travel to work Understanding how residents travel to work can offer indications of how far they live from their workplace, and the travel infrastructure that is in place within the Humber LEP area. • Relative to comparator cities, East Riding of Yorkshire has a very high proportion of residents who work mainly at or from home (4%), compared to the average for the competitor areas of 2.3%. • All four areas in the Humber LEP have relatively very low proportions of residents who travel to work via underground, metro, light rain, tram or Train. This may indicate a lack of certain infrastructure within the Humber LEP area. • With all four areas of the Humber LEP having more than 0.5% of residents travelling to work by motorcycle, scooter or moped, they compare highly against other major cities. • East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire both have relatively very high proportions of travel to work by driving a car or van. This may be due to the high rurality of these areas. The Humber LEP also has high proportions of people traveling as a passenger in a car or van. • Compared to other areas, the Humber LEP has low proportions of residents who walk to work. This may suggest that residents live further away from their workplace.

Work Other Bus, Motorcycle Passenger Not in mainly at Driving a method of Train minibus or Taxi , scooter in a car or Bicycle On foot employme or from car or van travel to coach or moped van nt home work England and Wales 3.5 3.3 4.7 0.3 0.5 37.1 3.3 1.9 6.9 0.4 35.5 East Riding of Yorkshire 4.0 0.9 1.8 0.2 0.5 43.6 3.6 2.4 6.9 0.6 35.4 Kingston upon Hull, City of 1.1 0.4 7.6 0.6 0.7 31.0 4.6 4.8 7.0 0.5 41.8 North East Lincolnshire 1.7 0.3 3.7 0.5 0.6 38.9 4.4 3.4 7.2 0.5 38.9 North Lincolnshire 2.7 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.6 44.9 4.3 2.5 6.4 0.4 36.2 Manchester 1.9 1.6 12.5 0.5 0.2 25.1 2.6 2.3 8.0 0.4 44.2 Liverpool 1.5 2.8 10.8 0.8 0.2 26.8 3.3 1.1 7.1 0.4 44.9 York 3.4 1.7 4.8 0.3 0.6 32.0 3.0 7.5 12.2 0.4 34.1 Doncaster 2.2 1.3 4.6 0.4 0.4 39.2 4.6 1.5 6.1 0.3 39.4 Sheffield 2.2 1.0 8.4 0.3 0.3 32.9 3.3 1.1 7.5 0.3 40.6 Leeds 2.6 2.1 9.0 0.6 0.3 35.9 3.8 1.1 7.5 0.3 36.7 Lincoln 2.1 0.5 3.4 0.4 0.7 34.2 4.7 3.8 12.2 0.3 37.7

Source: ONS (2011) Method of travel to work

Note: We have removed the field for “Underground, metro, light rail, tram” given the lack of relevance to the Humber LEP area. The proportion for England and Wales is 2.5%

Tickets bought Station Name Local Authority at station 2017 Hull Kingston Upon Hull City Of 2383244 Beverley East Riding Of Yorkshire 673076 Station locations and usage Bridlington East Riding Of Yorkshire 463330 Brough East Riding Of Yorkshire 443708 The map below illustrates the locations of train and rail stations within the Humber LEP area. The table shows the Grimsby Town North East Lincolnshire 438050 usage of each station, based on the number of ticket sales at the station in 2017. Scunthorpe North Lincolnshire 415526 Goole East Riding Of Yorkshire 293840 Cleethorpes North East Lincolnshire 288094 Driffield East Riding Of Yorkshire 245716 • The station with the highest usage is Hull in Kingston upon Hull with 2,382,244 tickets sold there in 2017. Cottingham East Riding Of Yorkshire 237302 Howden East Riding Of Yorkshire 122586 • The station with the lowest usage in 2017 was Kirton Lindsey with 358 ticket sales. Barnetby North Lincolnshire 63100 Gilberdyke East Riding Of Yorkshire 59814 Ferriby East Riding Of Yorkshire 48928 Hessle East Riding Of Yorkshire 48414 Hutton Cranswick East Riding Of Yorkshire 39972 Barton-On-Humber North Lincolnshire 39784 Nafferton East Riding Of Yorkshire 35242 Habrough North East Lincolnshire 33724 Crowle North Lincolnshire 29164 New Holland North Lincolnshire 14996 Goxhill North Lincolnshire 13334 Bempton East Riding Of Yorkshire 12846 Althorpe North Lincolnshire 10702 Stallingborough North East Lincolnshire 10602 Great Coates North East Lincolnshire 10354 Healing North East Lincolnshire 9822 Ulceby North Lincolnshire 6598 Grimsby Docks North East Lincolnshire 4574 Snaith East Riding Of Yorkshire 2182 Saltmarshe East Riding Of Yorkshire 1918 Brigg North Lincolnshire 1710 Barrow Haven North Lincolnshire 1526 Arram East Riding Of Yorkshire 1506 Broomfleet East Riding Of Yorkshire 1426 Eastrington East Riding Of Yorkshire 1344 New Clee North East Lincolnshire 1286 Thornton Abbey North Lincolnshire 1040 Rawcliffe East Riding Of Yorkshire 688 Wressle East Riding Of Yorkshire 464 Kirton Lindsey North Lincolnshire 358

Increasing usage

1800 Change in station usage 1600 The bar chart below shows the change in station usage between 2007 and 2017 based on the number of 1400 ticket sales at each station. Most rail stations have seen an increase in usage in the past decade, with 1200 ticket sales going up by 18.2% on average across the Humber LEP area. 1000 The top line graph to the right shows the changes in ticket sales at the three stations that have been the 800 highest increase in ticket sales since 2007. A particular increase in station usage was seen in 2016. 600

The bottom line graph to the right shows how ticket sales have changes in the three station that have seen Ticket sales at station 400 the biggest decrease in sales over the past decade. 200

2007-17 percent change in station usage New Clee Brigg Kirton Lindsey 300

Decreasing usage 250 5000

200 4500 17

- 4000 150 3500 3000 2500 100 2000 1500 50 Ticket sales at station 1000

% change in ticket sales2007inchange ticket% 500 0 0

-50

-100 Arram Barrow Haven Saltmarshe Source: Estimates of Station usage, Office of Rail and Road, 2016-17)

Average delay on locally managed A roads The map to the right shows the average delay on locally managed A roads across England. A dark colour represents a longer delay, suggesting a higher level of traffic congestion. The bar chart below shows how the congestion in each area compares to the national average of 46.9 seconds per vehicle per mile (spvpm), as well as other major cities in the north of England. • East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire have very low levels of congestion relative to the rest of England, with average delays of 17.7 spvpm and 20.2 spvpm respectively. • North East Lincolnshire has low levels of congestion, with an average delay of 40.6 spvpm, ranking in the bottom 40% of authorities nationally. • Kingston upon Hull has high levels of congestion relative to the national average, with an average delay of 86.8 spvpm.

Average delay on locally managed 'A' roads

120

100

England average Source: Road Congestion Statistics, Department for Transport (2017)

Total traffic on major roads, in thousand vehicle miles, from 2000 to 2016 (Index, 2000 = 100) DfT traffic statistics 135 130 Traffic counts provides street-level traffic data for every junction-to-junction 125 link on the 'A' road and motorway network in Great Britain. The chart to the 120 right and table below illustrate the traffic volume index (2000 = 100) for the four 115 Humber LEP authorities and range of comparators. 110 Of the four Local Authorities, North Lincolnshire has seen the largest increase 105 in the volume of traffic between 2000 and 2016 rising by almost 25% (124.8). 100 East Riding also saw a large increase in volume of traffic (118.6 in 2016), while 95

there were also increases North East Lincolnshire (112.6 in 2016) and Kingston

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 upon Hull (106.8 in 2016) though to a lesser degree. 2000 Kingston upon Hull East Riding of Yorkshire North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Manchester Doncaster Leeds York Sheffield Bradford Liverpool

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Doncaster 100.0 104.0 109.7 110.4 117.5 118.6 119.1 119.5 117.3 116.4 114.4 115.2 118.6 119.5 123.6 127.9 131.4 North Lincolnshire 100.0 102.7 108.1 111.0 114.2 114.3 115.2 118.1 115.7 114.1 111.5 113.4 116.2 117.4 120.4 122.4 124.8 East Riding of 100.0 102.4 106.2 108.3 112.7 112.4 113.2 112.1 113.3 112.5 110.1 110.5 110.1 111.5 115.1 116.6 118.6 Yorkshire Leeds 100.0 101.0 103.2 104.9 108.3 106.6 108.3 109.1 108.6 105.2 104.5 105.4 103.3 103.6 107.6 112.2 118.4 North East 100.0 101.2 105.7 105.8 108.6 107.7 109.8 107.0 107.4 106.9 106.2 107.6 106.4 105.4 108.0 110.7 112.6 Lincolnshire York 100.0 101.7 100.9 105.0 108.3 106.5 109.3 108.5 105.8 105.1 104.7 103.7 104.9 105.2 107.6 109.2 110.6 Liverpool 100.0 99.9 103.1 103.7 106.0 111.0 111.0 110.2 111.5 111.2 109.6 108.8 105.4 105.3 105.8 107.8 107.6 Kingston upon Hull 100.0 100.5 101.2 99.8 104.4 105.4 104.7 102.9 102.0 103.5 102.5 102.0 100.5 101.6 105.4 106.7 106.8 Bradford 100.0 101.3 102.8 102.3 102.2 102.3 104.6 104.2 103.3 103.1 103.0 102.5 100.5 99.7 102.4 104.8 104.0 Sheffield 100.0 103.4 103.9 104.6 107.0 104.2 105.0 104.1 100.0 101.7 101.0 102.5 99.6 99.8 100.6 101.3 103.8 Manchester 100.0 100.7 101.9 103.1 105.9 101.5 102.1 103.1 103.5 101.3 98.6 100.1 99.2 99.0 100.9 101.8 102.4

Yorkshire & Humber comparators East Riding of Yorkshire (118.55 in 2016) was fifth, while North East Lincolnshire (112.63 in 2016) was eighth and Kingston Upon Hull (106.83 in The table below builds on the analysis in the previous slide by showing the 2016) was thirteenth. Only Bradford (103.98 in 2016) and Sheffield (103.78 in traffic volume index (2000 = 100) for the four Humber LEP authorities and 2016) had lower growth in the volume of vehicles. range the other areas where data is collected in Yorkshire and the Humber. North Lincolnshire (124.78 in 2016) had the third greatest increase in traffic volume over this period behind only Doncaster (131.44 in 2016) and Wakefield (124.87 in 2016).

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Doncaster 100 104.04 109.70 110.45 117.50 118.62 119.12 119.49 117.31 116.39 114.41 115.25 118.63 119.54 123.63 127.90 131.44 Wakefield 100 101.92 100.81 102.89 104.87 104.90 114.47 114.37 112.29 110.92 109.21 113.95 110.92 112.53 116.86 120.59 124.87 North Lincolnshire 100 102.75 108.10 110.97 114.24 114.32 115.15 118.12 115.73 114.09 111.50 113.42 116.19 117.40 120.43 122.37 124.78 North Yorkshire 100 103.78 107.26 107.90 110.39 114.36 120.26 120.10 113.93 113.21 112.28 113.43 110.69 113.52 115.24 117.60 120.15 East Riding of 100 102.43 106.15 108.30 112.73 112.43 113.24 112.10 113.29 112.54 110.13 110.55 110.07 111.46 115.12 116.61 118.55 Yorkshire Leeds 100 101.01 103.17 104.85 108.27 106.56 108.34 109.08 108.57 105.18 104.50 105.40 103.34 103.64 107.59 112.18 118.44 Rotherham 100 103.31 104.47 104.78 109.46 109.67 110.39 109.60 112.35 110.69 108.35 110.14 108.01 109.22 107.90 112.02 113.70 North East 100 101.20 105.69 105.75 108.62 107.67 109.75 106.95 107.39 106.92 106.25 107.60 106.44 105.39 107.96 110.67 112.63 Lincolnshire Kirklees 100 101.36 101.54 98.20 103.02 103.57 105.77 106.90 105.44 103.97 103.83 104.02 101.14 101.43 108.95 108.81 112.46 Barnsley 100 101.86 105.22 105.17 111.92 111.04 110.43 111.26 108.53 107.76 108.60 107.75 106.13 106.68 107.36 110.32 110.71 York 100 101.69 100.88 104.99 108.29 106.47 109.28 108.54 105.83 105.08 104.66 103.73 104.93 105.23 107.55 109.16 110.56 Calderdale 100 101.00 102.02 100.73 103.53 103.18 103.25 105.20 104.32 105.30 103.64 103.88 100.76 100.99 106.39 107.42 109.64 Kingston upon Hull 100 100.49 101.17 99.77 104.42 105.37 104.72 102.92 102.00 103.46 102.52 102.05 100.53 101.55 105.39 106.74 106.83 Bradford 100 101.32 102.76 102.26 102.18 102.28 104.56 104.22 103.33 103.07 103.00 102.47 100.47 99.75 102.42 104.76 103.98 Sheffield 100 103.37 103.93 104.64 106.97 104.19 105.03 104.12 99.95 101.70 101.01 102.48 99.65 99.83 100.57 101.34 103.78

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 181 Proportional change in AADF (2006 to 2016) at count points Rank Road Start Junction End Junction % change 1 M18 M62 M18 134.31 2 A16 A1136 A180(T) 56.51 3 A645 LA Boundary A614 55.37 4 A1173 LA Boundary B1210 40.47 5 A1166 Witty St A63 38.18 6 A614 LA Boundary A1041 36.15 7 A645 LA Boundary A1041 31.26 8 A1029 A18 B1501 28.95 9 A614 A1079 B1248 28.25 10 A161 Wroots Avenue A614 RawcliffeRd 26.09

Annual Average Daily Traffic Flow (AADF) figures give the number of vehicles that will drive on that stretch of road on an average day of the year. The map illustrates where these count points are (in blue) and the ten that have seen the greatest proportional change in traffic flow between 2006 and 2016 (in red). The table illustrates the roads and junctions as well as the proportional change in traffic flow.

Five of the ten count points with the greatest increase appear to be on the M62 between Snaith and Goole. There appears to be one count point in the top ten located near to each of the economic centres identified – Hull town centre, Scunthorpe, Humber Bank and Grimsby.

Source: DfT (2018) Annual Average Daily Traffic Flows. Metadata:http://data.dft.gov.uk/gb-traffic-matrix/aadf-majorroads- metadata.pdf

Proportional change in traffic counts between 2006 and 2016 The map to the left plots the key traffic points around the Humber LEP area against both the primary and secondary economic centres. For each traffic point the size of the dot represents the proportional change in traffic flows between 2006 and 2016, where the larger the dot the larger the proportional change, and vice versa. Where there has been a rise in traffic flow this is represented in red. Where there has been a fall in traffic flow this is represented in blue. We can see that there are a number of traffic points around both the primary and economic centres where there has been a large proportionate increase in traffic flows between 2006 and 2016. Around the economic centre for Hull there are traffic points both to the North and South of the Humber Bridge that have seen large increases in traffic flow. There are points to the West and South East of Grimsby that have experiences large increases in traffic flow. While, the West of Goole has a cluster of traffic points with over 10%. At the same time, we can see a number of traffic points where there has been a proportionate decrease in traffic flow between 2006 and 2016. Points with a fall in traffic flow can be seen across East Riding of Yorkshire, Scunthorpe, South Humber Bank, Central Hull and Bridlington.

Source: DfT (2018) Annual Average Daily Traffic Flows. Metadata:http://data.dft.gov.uk/gb-traffic-matrix/aadf-majorroads-metadata.pdf

Proportional change in traffic counts between 2010 and 2016 The picture is similar when analysing the proportional change in traffic flows between 2010 and 2016. There is a large concentration of traffic points around Goole that have seen a proportionate change of 10%-20% or above suggesting large increases in traffic flow between Leeds and the Humber area along the M62. Another traffic point on the A15 at the Southern border of the Humber LEP area (by Kirton in Lindsey) has seen traffic flow increase by 10-20% between this period suggesting increases in north-south flows with the Humber LEP area. There are also a number of traffic points on both sides of the Humber bridge that have seen increases in traffic flow of 10%-20%, suggesting increases in traffic flow across the Humber Bridge. This finding is corroborated by the data from the Humber Bridge in the next section. There are a number of traffic points around the South Humber Bank and Grimsby where traffic flow has increased 0-10%. There is one point in this area which stands out, having seen growth of 20%-40%, along the A180.

Source: DfT (2018) Annual Average Daily Traffic Flows. Metadata:http://data.dft.gov.uk/gb-traffic-matrix/aadf-majorroads-metadata.pdf

Introduction Humber Bridge toll reduction The Humber Bridge provides the only connection across the Humber at the The Humber Bridge Tolls Impact Assessment conducted in 2008 sought to centre of the centre of the Humber LEP, with the nearest alternative crossing at better understand the impact of the Humber Bridge tolls on the Hull and Goole. As such, it is a key factor in the connectivity between the two authorities Humber Ports City Region. north of the Humber (Kingston Upon Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire) and the The assessment notes the trade-offs between travel time and the money that two authorities to the south of the Humber (North Lincolnshire and North East people are willing to make and their likely travel behaviour. At the time of Lincolnshire). publication, the DfT value for time for commuting (in 2002 values and prices) is The following section analyses data for the Humber Bridge to understand £5.04/hour, which translates to £6.48/hour in 2008 prices and values. This whether flows across the Humber have increased over time. In particular, the means that an average commuter is ambivalent between spending an extra analysis seeks to understand whether flows have changed a.) following the hour commuting and spending an extra £6.48. Paying the Bridge’s standard car reduction in toll prices in 2012, where the price was halved, and b.) the toll of £2.70 one way is the equivalent of adding an additional 25 minutes to a introduction of the new tolling system in 2015/16. journey. The assessment notes that due to average income in the area sitting below the national the affect may be greater, and results are likely This includes the following analysis: conservative. • Total crossing between 1999/2000 and 2017/2018 Following this logic, we would assume that the 2012 reduction in toll price • Type of vehicle crossing between 1999/2000 and 2017/2018 would see a corresponding increase in Bridge crossings. • Traffic flow data for junction links close to the Humber Bridge • Heat maps identifying the home postcode for those crossing with Humber TAG The majority of the data analysed comes from publically available datasets, including Humber Bridge Board TAG data provided by the Humber Bridge Board.

Humber Bridge Toll AADT Between 2012 and 2015 when the tolls were reduced, the traffic flow rose to 20% greater than that expected and between 2015 to 2016 when the new Toll System was introduced, there was a further positive increase. This is some 10% greater than the national predicted growth.

% Change 2008-2012 2012-2015 2015-2016 HGV -4.10% 30.53% 20.79% Traffic -1.21% 25.97% 13.92% Predicted Traffic Growth -2.94% 5.80% 2.38%

Humber Bridge traffic flow The first chart to the right shows the volume of traffic crossing the Humber Bridge by class type. We can see that traffic flow has increased from 6,004,792 Humber bridge traffic flow 9,782,635 vehicles in 1999/2000 to 9,782,635 vehicles in 2017/18. The majority of this 10,000,000 9,344,206 increase has come following the reduction of the toll from £3 to £1.50 on April 8,544,584 9,000,000 8,109,790 st 1 2012. Since then the number of vehicles has increased from 6,438,386 in 7,469,837 8,000,000 6,630,295 6,438,386 2011/12 to 9,782,635 vehicles in 2017/18, an increase of 3,294,860 (or 52%). 6,305,531 6,422,830 6,487,775 6,952,127 5,954,074 6,384,170 6,485,141 6,517,130 6,472,214 7,000,000 6,004,792 6,216,671 5,772,765 While cars and goods vehicles (max 3-5 tonnes) make up the majority of traffic 6,000,000 flow in every year, this has been increasing as a proportion from 85.0% in 5,000,000 1999/00 to 91.9% in 2017/18. 4,000,000 The second chart shows the year on year growth in traffic over this period. 3,000,000 Since the toll reduction, we can see strong growth in traffic flow in 2012/13 2,000,000 (8.0%), 2013/14 (7.4%) and 2014/15 (8.6%). This contrasts the year on year 1,000,000 falls seen over the previous four years. 0 Key: • Class 1: Motor Cycles with or without sidecar. Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Exempt • Class 2: Cars and Goods vehicles having a maximum weight not exceeding 3.5 tonnes Motor Caravans Class 2 vehicles with trailers including caravans. Humber Bridge traffic flow - % growth on previous year • Class 3: Goods vehicles having a maximum gross vehicle weight exceeding 3.5 tonnes but not exceeding 7.5 tonnes Small buses (with seating for 9-16 15% passengers) Class 3 vehicles with lightweight trailers (now merged with class 4). 8.6% 9.4% 10% 8.0%7.4% • Class 4: Goods vehicles having a maximum gross vehicle weight exceeding 7.5 4.4% 5.4% 4.7% 5% 3.1% -0.2% tonnes with 2 axles Large buses (with seating for 17 or more passengers) Class 2.2%-1.7% 1.4%1.2%0.6%1.0% -0.5% 4 vehicles with lightweight trailers. -3.9% -0.5% 0% • Class 5: Goods vehicles having a maximum gross vehicle weight exceeding 7.5 tonnes with 3 axles (now merged with class 6). -5% • Class 6: Goods vehicles having a maximum gross vehicle weight exceeding 7.5 Source: Humber Bridge Website tonnes with 4 or more axles. © 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 188 Humber Bridge traffic flow

Class 2 Class 6 Class 2 refers to cars and Goods vehicles having a maximum weight not Class 6 refers to goods vehicles having a maximum gross vehicle weight exceeding 3.5 tonnes Motor Caravans Class 2 vehicles with trailers including exceeding 7.5 tonnes with 4 or more axles. caravans. Since 2012/13 when the Bridge toll was halved, traffic flow of class 6 vehicles Since 2012/13 when the Bridge toll was halved, traffic flow of class 2 vehicles has increased from 320,894 to 412,920 in 2015/16, an increase of 28.7%. has increased from 6,085,218 to 8,993,783 in 2017/18, an increase of 47.8%.

Humber Bridge Traffic Flow - Class 2 Humber Bridge Traffic Flow – Class 6

10,000,000 450,000 8,993,783 412,920 9,000,000 400,000 8,000,000 350,000 320,894 302,878 7,000,000 6,085,218 300,000 6,000,000 5,101,163 250,000 5,000,000 200,000 4,000,000 150,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 100,000 1,000,000 50,000 0 0

Note: From 2012/13 Class 6 also merged with class 5 which comprised goods vehicles having a maximum gross vehicle weight exceeding 7.5 tonnes with 3 axles. To ensure comparability we have combined class 5 and class 6 data for the period prior to 2012/13. No data was provided for 2016/17 and 2017/18.

WEBTRIS Traffic Figures A63/A15 and M180/A15 The Highways England WEBTRIS Data shows traffic count data for each link of the A63/A15 Junction (towards Hull) and the M180/A15 Junction (towards Grimsby). These junctions are used to access the Humber Bridge from the A63 and M180. There has been large increases in traffic between 2012-2015 for the A63 westbound exit-slip and A63 eastbound entry-slip of 18.18% and 16.74% retrospectively. This indicates large increases in traffic flowing from the Humber Bridge and into Hull.

A63/A15 All Traffic – WEBTRIS Data (*2009 to 2012)

Count 1 2 3 4 5 2016 data 16,621 7,229 8,416 16,068 8,576 2008 -2012 0.21%* -1.83%* 0.90%* 0.29% -5.94% 2012-2015 5.22% 8.93% 16.74% 6.08% 18.18% 2015-2016 3.60% 3.21% -3.86% 1.02% 0.86% Note: WEBTRIS, provided by Highways England (HE), only provides data for one direction of the carriageway, meaning the values were close to half of the figures provided by DFT. To overcome this issue, the eastbound and westbound count data was combined to produce a more comparable value to the DFT data.

There have also been large increases in traffic between 2012-2015 for the M180 westbound exit-slip and M180 eastbound entry-slip of 20.0% and 22.2% retrospectively. This indicates large increases in traffic between the Humber Bridge and Grimsby/Immingham.

M180/A15 All Traffic – WEBTRIS Data Count 6 7 8 9 10 11 2016 data 7,858 10,037 5,060 5,043 10,074 7,953 2008 -2012 0.5% -10.6% -3.4% -3.7% -7.8% -0.3% 2012-2015 8.2% 10.0% 22.2% 22.0% 9.7% 4.8% 2015-2016 5.4% 0.2% -1.3% -1.9% 0.1% 4.4%

Humber Bridge Tag User Locations Humber Bridge Tag User Commuter Locations The heat map shows the addresses of where Humber Bridge tags are The heat map shows the addresses of where Humber Bridge tags are registered. The map shows the areas where much of tags are registered registered that have also crossed the bridge twice a day for more than 10 days correlate to the more densely populated areas around the Humber Bridge. in September representing commuters. The map shows commuters using the Bridge are spread across a wide area, but the highest concentrations of commuters are found close to the Humber Bridge.

Count of bridge crossings per LSOA The thematic maps illustrate the total count of crossings over 6 month periods from September 2015 to May 2018. The Humber LEP. LSOAs are coloured according to how many crossings were made by users registered to a postcode within the LSOA. A darker colour indicates that a higher number of crossings were made by users from within that area. The thematic ranges have been chosen to best illustrate the trends in the data. The six month period with the highest total number of crossings was March to August 2017 which saw 4,089 crossings, while the lowest (not including the two month period of March to May 2018) was September 2017 to March 2018 which saw 2,918 crossings. On each map the individual LSOA with the highest number of crossings associated with it has been highlighted in red.

Source: Humber Bridge Board

The overall trend in bridge crossings shows that users are coming from a further distance, with LSOAs further away from the LEP having increasingly large numbers of crossings associated with them and LSOAS within the LEP seeing fewer crossings. Between September 2015 to February 2017 the LSOA with the highest total number of crossings was located within the Humber LEP. However, since March 2017, the LSOA with the highest number of crossings has come from further afield in Birmingham or Rushmoor. Maps of this can be seen on the following slides.

Source: Humber Bridge Board

The maps below show the LSOA with the highest number of crossing associated for the periods between March 2017 and May 2018. Between March 2017 and February 2018, this area was located in Birmingham, while the LSOA with the highest number of crossings between March 2018 and May 2018 was in Rushmoor.

Source: Humber Bridge Board

EU new University entrants and FE institutions learners Number of students in FE institutions studying from EU (by This section analyses learner data that has been provided by the University of Hull country of origin) and three further education institutions. This has been analysed to see if numbers of 250 learners and geographic draw has spread over time. The following analysis is presented in an anonymised format so individual institutions cannot be identified.

The chart below illustrates the total number of new EU entrants at the University of 200 Hull and EU learners at FE institutions. The number increased from 377 in 2014/15 to 549 in 2016/17, an increase of 45.6%. The chart to the right shows the countries with greatest number of new University 150 entrants and FE learners. The top three were France, Germany and Spain.

Total EU learners 100

600 549

500 50 386 400 377

300 0

200

100

0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Non-EU new University entrants and FE institutions learners Number of students studying at University and FE The chart below illustrates the total number of new non-EU entrants at the institutions from overseas (by Country of Origin) University of Hull and non-EU learners at FE institutions. The number fell from 625 600 in 2014/15 to 496 in 2015/16, and then rising to 709 I 2016/17. The chart to the right shows the countries with greatest number of new University 500 entrants and FE learners from outside of the EU. The top three were China, Malaysia and Hong Kong. China made the largest contribution by some way. 400

300 Total non-EU learners 800 200 709 700 625 100 600 496 0

500

Iraq India

400 Syria

China

Sudan

Congo

Ghana

Gambia

Vietnam

Jamaica

Thailand Pakistan

Australia

Malaysia Bermuda

300 Botswana

Singapore

Zimbabwe

Philippines

HongKong

Kazakhstan

Bangladesh SouthAfrica

200 UnitedStates BritishColumbia

100 UnitedArab Emirates 0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Introduction Economic centres This section of the report looks at the economic centres that exist within the These economic themes and trends do play out differently across different Humber Economy. This economic and social measures analysed in this section places within the Humber LEP area. By looking through the lens of economic include the geographic distribution of: centres further insight around the economic narrative around employees, businesses and residents emerges. • Employees By analysing the geographic concentrations of resident population, employees • Enterprises and enterprises in the Humber LEP area it is clear that there are four primary • Resident population economic centres: Grimsby+, Hull+, Scunthorpe+ and the South Humber Bank. • Growth in resident population With three secondary economic centres: Beverley+, Bridlington+ and Goole+. While not as large in scale as the four primary economic centres each are • Business land allocations destinations for economic activity. This data has been analysed at the lowest level of granularity possible. Data for Employees employees, resident population and resident population growth have been analysed at Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) level. While the Hull+, Scunthorpe+, Grimsby+ and the South Humber Bank all have geographic distribution of enterprises have been analysed at the Middle Layer comparatively high levels of employment. Of the 583 Lower Layer Super Super Output Areas (MSOA) level as data is not currently available at LSOA Output Areas (LSOA) in the LEP area there are 13 that have more than 5,000 level. employees and a further 15 that have between 2,500 and 5,000 employees. The majority of these high employee LSOA are located in these four centres. LSOA – There are 583 Lower Layer Super Output Areas in the Humber LEP area. Of these, there are 210 in East Riding of Yorkshire, 166 in Kingston Upon Hull+ forms the largest centre in the LEP area. There are 9 LSOAs with more Hull, 106 in North East Lincolnshire and 101 in North Lincolnshire. than 5,000 employees in this centre and a further 4 LSOA with between 2,500 and 5,000 employees. In total, these 13 LSOA alone comprise 77,000 MSOA – There are 121 Middle Layer Super Output Areas in the Humber LEP employees. Area. Of these there are 43 in East Riding, 32 in Kingston Upon Hull, 23 in North East Lincolnshire and 23 in North Lincolnshire. Scunthorpe+ forms another centre of high employment. This centre comprises two LSOA with more than 5,000 employees (8,500 and 6,500 respectively) and a further two LSOA with between 2,500 and 5,000 employees. When combined, these 4 LSOA feature 22,750 employees which represent over 32% of the 70,525 employed in North Lincolnshire.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 200 Grimsby+ is another centre of high employment that spans the LSOA along the There are a further three MSOA with between 250 and 500 enterprises in the Humber bank and inland to the South. There is one LSOA in this centre with city centre that comprise a further 1,010 enterprises. In total, these 6 MSOA over 5,000 employees (9,500 employees) and another 5 LSOA with 2,500 and have 3,055 enterprises. This represents more than half of the businesses in the 5,000 employees. In total these 6 LSOA comprise 25,500 employees, which Hull local authority area. represent over 38% of the 66,805 employed in North East Lincolnshire. While Scunthorpe+ has pockets of high employment, the number of businesses The South Humber Bank is the final centre with a high concentration of is low relative to other areas of the LEP area suggesting a small number of employment – albeit smaller than the other three. The two neighbouring LSOA enterprises employing large numbers of people. that sit on either side of the North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire Grimsby+ has one MSOA on the Humber which acts as a centre for enterprise. border comprise 9,000 employees. This MSOA features 545 enterprises which is the highest of all MSOA across The secondary hubs (Bridlington+, Goole+ and Beverley+) have lower numbers both North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. The South Humber Bank of employees relative to these centres, with Beverley the only economic hub has a number of MSOA with between 300 and 400 enterprises that run along containing a LSOA with over 5,000 employees. the bank of the Humber. This comprises the areas of North Immingham, South Immingham, Stallingborough and to the West of Grimsby. Businesses There are also large pockets of enterprise across the North West of East The distribution of businesses is more varied than for employees, with high Riding of Yorkshire which is outside of one of the defined economic centres. numbers in pockets of Hull+, Grimsby+ and the north west of East Riding of This is in contrast to the relatively low number of employees in these areas. Yorkshire which is outside of one of the defined economic centres.. This is due to a higher proportion smaller businesses in the district, with 89.3% Of the 121 Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA) in the LEP area there are micro (0-9 employees), 9.4% small (10-49 employees), 1.2% medium-sized 9 MSOA that have more than 500 enterprises and a further 11 with between (50-249 employees) and just 0.1% being large businesses (250+). 400 and 500 enterprises. Resident population Hull+ is home to a large number of enterprises. The centre has three MSOA The resident population is spread more widely across the LEP area with a with over 500 enterprises that sit next to each other along the bank of the number of higher density pockets, often surrounding towns and city centres. Humber (in total comprising 2,045 businesses). One of these has 1,005 Hull+, Scunthorpe+, Grimsby+ and the South Humber Bank all have businesses alone, which is the highest of any MSOA in the LEP area. concentrations of resident population which are growing.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 201 Of the 583 LSOA in the Humber LEP area, there are 40 LSOA with a Future growth of the economic centres population greater than 2,000 and a further 82 LSOA with a population between 1,740 and 2,000. In anticipation of how these centres are likely to develop in future, we have analysed the business and housing land allocations that form these centres. Hull+ has a clear concentration of resident population. There are 12 LSOA in This provides a useful indicator of the breadth of these centres and where Hull+ with a population over 2,000, of which 6 are close to the city centre. The further economic activity around these centres may develop over time. It is city centre has also seen large population growth over the last decade, with 5 clear from this analysis that the land allocations around these centres are LSOA in the city centre having seen growth of over 500 between 2006 and growing and the functional economic sub-areas in the Humber are expanding. 2016. When observing the land allocations in Hull+ we can see that these expand Scunthorpe+ has pockets of high resident population both in the centre and to beyond the city centre and local authority boundaries out to the West to the North and South of the town. Of the 9 LSOA which have population over incorporate Elloughton, Welton, Melton, Swanland, Willerby, Hessle and 2,000 in North Lincolnshire, 8 are in the Scunthorpe+ centre. Some of these Cottingham. To the north, the employment land allocations reach out to pockets to the North and the South of the town have also seen high population Kingswood and Bransholme and to the east to Greatfield and Paull. The centre growth, with 3 LSOA growing by over 500 between 2006 and 2016. One of looks to also stretch south across the Humber Bridge to Barton-upon-Humber. these LSOA to the north of Scunthorpe experienced population growth of 1,054, an increase of 68% over the time period. For the Scunthorpe+ centre we can see that these covers Frodingham and the Foxhill Industrial site to the North, Westcliff to the East and Yaddlethorpe to the The area surrounding Grimsby+ has a lower number of high population south. hotspots (3 LSOA’s with populations over 2,000), although one of these LSOA has a population of 3,560 which is the highest of all LSOA’s in the LEP area. While the land allocations around the South Humber Bank comprises East Similarly, the South Humber Bank does not have high concentrations of Halton, North Killingholme, South Killingholme, Immingham and resident population but has seen steady growth in a number of LSOA along the Stallingborough. bank between 2006 and 2016. When looking at the land allocations for Grimsby we can see that this comprises Healing and Great Coates to the West. It comprises Waltham to the south and Cleethorpes to the east.

Introduction In the following pages show the analysis used to identify these centres. This includes analysis of the geographic distribution of the following indicators: This section attempts to establish the key economic centres in the Humber LEP area. Through analysis of the geographic concentration of a number of • The LSOA with the greatest number of employees indicators we have formed boundaries that capture these centres. This has • The MSOA with the greatest number of enterprises resulted in four primary economic centres and three secondary centres being identified. • The LSOA with the greatest number of resident population The four primary centres are: • The business and land allocations • Hull+ • Scunthorpe+ • Grimsby+ • South Humber Bank The three secondary centres are: • Goole+ • Beverley+ • Bridlington+

Employee numbers Using the latest Business Register and Employment Survey we can map employees at a local level to identify where there is higher economic activity. Based on this data we can identify primary economic hubs in Hull, Scunthorpe, Grimsby and South Humber Bank, where employee numbers within the immediate Super Output Areas exceed 5,000 employees. The secondary hubs (Bridlington, Goole and Beverley) have lower number of employees, with Beverley the only economic centre containing a LSOA with over 5,000 employees. The following slides provide a more detailed picture for each of these primary and secondary economic hubs.

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (2016)

Scunthorpe Grimsby

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (2016)

South Humber Bank Kingston upon Hull

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (2016)

Beverley Bridlington

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (2016)

Goole

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (2016)

Business numbers Business numbers provide another good indication of where there is higher economic activity. The map to the left shows the latest enterprise count data from the Inter Departmental Business Register at Middle Layer Super Outputs Area level . The distribution and number of businesses is more varied, with high numbers in pockets of Hull, Grimsby and also to the north west of East Riding of Yorkshire. There are also a high number of businesses in the secondary economic hub of Beverley. A drawback of using this businesses data is that its only released at MSOA level instead of LSOA which means it lacks the granularity of the employee and population data and therefore makes it more difficult to identify localised economic hubs using the map alone.

* An enterprise can be thought of as the overall business, made up of all the individual sites or workplaces. It is defined as the smallest combination of legal units (generally based on VAT and/or PAYE records) that has a certain degree of autonomy within an enterprise group. Source: UK Business Counts (2017)

Population numbers The map to the left uses the latest Population Mid-year estimates at LSOA level to show where the population resides at at a local level. Unlike economic activity the population is spread more widely across the LEP area with a number of higher density pockets, often surrounding towns and city centres. The map also highlights pockets of high population in the secondary economic hubs of Goole, Beverley and Bridlington. Out of the 40 LSOA areas that have populations over 2,000, 16 of these are in East Riding of Yorkshire, illustrating that there are a high number of population settlements in this authority. North East Lincolnshire has a lower numbers of high population hotspots (3 LSOA’s have populations over 2,000), although one of these LSOAs has a population of 3,560 which is the highest of all LSOA’s in the LEP area.

Source: Mid-year Population Estimates (2016)

Population change The map shows the total change in resident population in each LSOA between 2006 and 2016. The darker the shade of purple illustrates the greatest change. The map show that the areas experiencing the higher growth tend to be located the urban areas such as Hull. Of the 18 areas that had an increase of over 500 people, half of these were in Kingston upon Hull. Whereas in North East Lincolnshire, only one LSOA has an increase of over 500 people. However, the next slide shows that there are also pockets of significant population growth just outside the large conurbations as well.

Source: Mid-year Population Estimates (2006 and 2016)

Melton and Barton To the west and south west of Kingston upon Hull there are also pockets of high population growth, encompassing parts of Melton and Barton upon Humber. Scunthorpe To the north and south east of Scunthorpe there are also small areas that have experienced significant growth, with the LSOA to the north of Scunthorpe increasing by 1,054, representing an increase of 68% over the time period.

Source: Mid-year Population Estimates (2006 and 2016)

Business and housing land allocations Grimsby+ The following slides illustrate where business and housing land is allocated When looking at the land allocations for Grimsby we can see that this around the four primary economic centres that have been identified. The comprises Healing and Great Coates to the West. It comprises Waltham to the analysis is useful as an additional indicator for the breadth of these centres south and Cleethorpes to the east. as well as an identifying where further economic activity around these centres may develop over time. Hull+ When observing the land allocations surrounding the city of Hull we can see that these expand beyond the city centre and local authority boundaries out to the West to incorporate Elloughton, Welton, Melton, Swanland, Willerby, Hessle and Cottingham. To the north, the employment land allocations reach out to Kingswood and Bransholme and to the east to Greatfield and Paull. The centre looks to also stretch south across the Humber Bridge to Barton-upon- Humber. Scunthorpe+ When observing the land allocations surrounding Scunthorpe we can see that these covers Frodingham and the Foxhill Industrial site to the North, Westcliff to the East and Yaddlethorpe to the south. South Humber Bank When looking at the land allocations we can see that this comprises East Halton, North Killingholme, South Killingholme, Immingham and Stallingborough.

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Draft 223 Grimsby+ & Hull+ primary economic centres In the Grimsby+ economic centre, the industries with the greatest number employed in both 2015 and 2016 are health and manufacturing. The greatest proportional change over this period was seen in Agriculture, forestry & fishing (1700%, albeit increasing from 10 in 2015 to 180 in 2016), Information and communication (33.3%) and Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (21.4%). In the Hull+ economic centre, the industries with the greatest number employed in both 2015 and 2016 are Health and Manufacturing. The industries with the greatest proportional increase are agriculture, forestry & fishing (3,425%, albeit increasing from 20 in 2015 to 705 in 2016), Transport & storage (43.9%) and Property (21.8%). Grimsby+ economic centre – employment by industry Hull+ economic centre – employment by industry

Arts, entertainment, recreation & other… Arts, entertainment, recreation & other… Health (Q) Health (Q) Education (P) Education (P) Public administration & defence (O) Public administration & defence (O) Business administration & support services (N) Business administration & support services (N) Professional, scientific & technical (M) Professional, scientific & technical (M) Property (L) Property (L) Financial & insurance (K) Financial & insurance (K) Information & communication (J) Information & communication (J) Accommodation & food services (I) Accommodation & food services (I) Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) Retail (Part G) Retail (Part G) Wholesale (Part G) Wholesale (Part G) Motor trades (Part G) Motor trades (Part G) Construction (F) Construction (F) Manufacturing (C) Manufacturing (C) Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A)

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Grimsby+ - 2016 Grimsby+ - 2015 Hull+ - 2016 Hull+ - 2015

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 224 Scunthorpe & South Humber Bank primary economic centres The industries that employ the most in the Scunthorpe+ economic centre are manufacturing and health. The industries that saw the largest proportional change were Agriculture, forestry & fishing (400%, albeit increasing from 5 in 2015 to 25 in 2016), Motor trades (26.0%) and Information & Communication (23.9%). In the South Humber Bank Economic Centre the industries with greatest level of employment are Transport and Manufacturing. The industries with greatest proportional change are Information & communication (100%, albeit increasing from 5 to 10), Motor trades (42.6%) and Wholesale (20.2%).

Scunthorpe+ economic centre – Employment by industry South Humber Bank economic centre – Employment by industry

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Scunthorpe+ - 2016 Scunthorpe+ - 2015 South Humber Bank - 2016 South Humber Bank - 2015

© 2018 Grant Thornton UK LLP. | Final Humber Local Enterprise Partnership | December 2018 225 Beverley & Bridlington secondary economic centres In the Beverley+ economic centre the industries with the greatest number employed are Public administration & defence and Manufacturing. The industries with the greatest proportional increase was in Wholesale (39.7%), Motor trades (27.1%) and Information & communication (24%). In Bridlington+ the industries that employ the most are Retail, Manufacturing, Health and Accommodation & food services. The greatest proportional increase was seen in Agriculture, forestry & fishing (5000%, albeit increasing from 5 to 255), Mining, quarrying & utilities (87.0%) and Motor trades (50.0%).

Beverley+ economic centre – Employment by industry Bridlington+ economic centre – Employment by industry

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000

Beverley+ - 2016 Beverley+ - 2015 Bridlington+ - 2016 Bridlington+ - 2015

In the economic centre of Goole+ the industries with the greatest number employed are Transport & storage, Business administration & support and Retail. The greatest proportional change between 2015 and 2016 was in Information & communication (33.3%), Mining, quarrying & utilities (33.3%) and Health (11.6%).

Goole+ economic centre – Employment by industry

Arts, entertainment, recreation & other… Health (Q) Education (P) Public administration & defence (O) Business administration & support services (N) Professional, scientific & technical (M) Property (L) Financial & insurance (K) Information & communication (J) Accommodation & food services (I) Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) Retail (Part G) Wholesale (Part G) Motor trades (Part G) Construction (F) Manufacturing (C) Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A)

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Goole+ - 2016 Goole+ - 2015

Introduction This section of the report analyses the key flows of workers coming into the economic centres. The tables in the following slides show the top 10 local authorities where workers in each of the economic centres are commuting in from. The economic centres have been analysed by aggregating Census data for the LSOA that comprise these centres. Analysis has been provided for both the actual figures and the percentage of the total workforce that this forms.

Grimsby+ Hull+ 82.4% of the workforce of Grimsby+ also reside in North East Lincolnshire. 58.2% of the Hull+ workforce also reside in Kingston Upon Hull. The four While the four authorities that form the Humber LEP contribute 89.6% of the authorities that form the Humber LEP contribute 96.7% of the Hull+ workforce. Grimsby+ workforce. The authorities situated outside of the LEP area that They also make up the top four authorities that contribute the most to this contribute the most to the economic centre are East Lindsey (5.7%), West workforce. The authorities situated outside of the LEP area that contribute the Lindsey (2.5%) and Doncaster (0.3%) most to the economic centre are York (0.3%), Leeds (0.3%) and Doncaster (0.3%)

Rank Currently residing in Sum % Rank Currently residing in SUM % 1 North East Lincolnshire 44,350 82.80 1 Kingston upon Hull, City of 85,195 58.22 2 East Lindsey 3,051 5.70 2 East Riding of Yorkshire 50,881 34.77 3 North Lincolnshire 2,615 4.88 3 North Lincolnshire 4,262 2.91 4 West Lindsey 1,339 2.50 4 North East Lincolnshire 1,119 0.76 5 Kingston upon Hull, City of 595 1.11 5 York 464 0.32 6 East Riding of Yorkshire 442 0.83 6 Leeds 427 0.29 7 Doncaster 180 0.34 7 Doncaster 401 0.27 8 Lincoln 127 0.24 8 Selby 305 0.21 9 Sheffield 70 0.13 9 West Lindsey 241 0.16 10 North Kesteven 50 0.09 10 Wakefield 220 0.15

Scunthorpe+ South Humber Bank 85.2% of the Scunthorpe+ workforce also reside in North Lincolnshire. While 65.0% of the South Humber Bank workforce also reside in North East the four authorities that form the Humber LEP contribute 89.5% of the Lincolnshire. While the four authorities that form the Humber LEP contribute Scunthorpe+ workforce. The authorities situated outside of the LEP area that 88.0% of the South Humber Bank workforce. The authorities situated outside of contribute the most to the economic centre are West Lindsey (4.1%), the LEP area that contribute the most to the economic centre are West Lindsey Doncaster (2.3%) and Rotherham (0.4%). (5.0%), East Lindsey (3.4%) and Doncaster (0.6%).

Rank Currently residing in Sum % Rank Currently residing in Sum % 1 North Lincolnshire 35,247 85.16 1 North East Lincolnshire 7,945 64.98 2 West Lindsey 1,695 4.10 2 North Lincolnshire 2,455 20.08 3 North East Lincolnshire 1,028 2.48 3 West Lindsey 606 4.96 4 Doncaster 966 2.33 4 East Lindsey 416 3.40 5 East Riding of Yorkshire 518 1.25 5 East Riding of Yorkshire 196 1.60 6 Kingston upon Hull, City of 236 0.57 6 Kingston upon Hull, City of 168 1.37 7 Rotherham 160 0.39 7 Doncaster 68 0.56 8 Sheffield 141 0.34 8 Lincoln 42 0.34 9 Bassetlaw 135 0.33 9 Barnsley 28 0.23 10 Lincoln 134 0.32 10 Sheffield 26 0.21

Goole+ Beverley+ 72.3% of the Goole+ workforce also reside in East Riding of Yorkshire. East 75.9% of the Beverley+ workforce also reside in East Riding of Yorkshire. East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston Upon Hull and North Lincolnshire comprise Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston Upon Hull and North Lincolnshire comprise 78.1% of the Goole+ workforce, but North East Lincolnshire does not feature in 96.6% of the Beverley+ workforce, but North East Lincolnshire does not feature the top ten. The authorities situated outside of the LEP area that contribute the in the top ten. The authorities situated outside of the LEP area that contribute most to the economic centre are Doncaster (10.3%), Selby (5.3%) and the most to the economic centre are York (0.8%), Scarborough (0.4%) and Wakefield (1.2%). Selby (0.3%).

Rank Currently residing in Sum % Rank Currently residing in Sum % 1 East Riding of Yorkshire 6,919 72.28 1 East Riding of Yorkshire 10,600 75.90 2 Doncaster 981 10.25 2 Kingston upon Hull, City of 2,817 20.17 3 Selby 509 5.32 3 York 108 0.77 4 Kingston upon Hull, City of 296 3.09 4 North Lincolnshire 76 0.54 5 North Lincolnshire 262 2.74 5 Scarborough 51 0.37 6 Wakefield 114 1.19 6 Selby 43 0.31 7 York 87 0.91 7 Ryedale 26 0.19 8 Leeds 75 0.78 8 Leeds 23 0.16 9 Rotherham 56 0.58 9 Doncaster 20 0.14 10 Sheffield 27 0.28 10 Wakefield 15 0.11

Bridlington+ 89.2% of the Bridlington+ workforce also reside in East Riding of Yorkshire. East Riding of Yorkshire and Kingston Upon Hull contribute 91.6% of the Bridlington+ workforce but North Lincolnshire and North Eats Lincolnshire do not feature I the top ten authorities. The authorities situated outside of the LEP area that contribute the most to the economic centre are Scarborough (4.3%), York (1.0%) and Ryedale (0.6%).

Rank Currently residing in Sum % 1 East Riding of Yorkshire 9,450 89.15 2 Scarborough 460 4.34 3 Kingston upon Hull, City of 263 2.48 4 York 106 1.00 5 Ryedale 65 0.61 6 Leeds 31 0.29 7 Harrogate 11 0.10 8 Wakefield 11 0.10 9 Selby 9 0.08 10 Doncaster 9 0.08

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