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Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

John B. Casterline

United Nations 2 December 2009

1 Table 1. Arab Region: Current Population Size (2009), and Availability of Survey Data

Population Most Recent Survey Country Size Date Program (millions) 34.9 2002 PAPFAM DHS/PAPFA 32.0 2003 M Tunisia 10.3 2001 PAPFAM Total 77.2 83.0 2008 DHS 30.7 - 6.3 2007 DHS 4.2 2004 PAPFAM 6.4 2007 PAPFAM * Palestine 4.3 2006-07 PAPFAM * 42.3 2006 PAPFAM * 21.9 2001 PAPFAM Total 199.1 0.8 - 3.0 - 2.8 - 1.4 - 25.7 - U.A.E 4.6 - 23.6 2003 PAPFAM Total 61.9 0.7 1996 DHS 0.9 2002 PAPFAM 3.3 - 9.1 - Total 14.0 2 UN / December 2009 Arab Total 352.2 3 UN / December 2009 Table 2. Trends in the Total Fertility Rate 1950-55 - 2005-10

Total Fertility Rate Decline in Total Fertility Rate (%) Country 1950-55 1980-85 2005-10 1950-1985 1980-2010 1950-2010 Algeria 7.3 6.5 2.4 11 63 67 Morocco 7.2 5.4 2.4 25 56 67 Tunisia 6.9 4.9 1.9 29 62 73 Median 7.2 5.4 2.4 25 62 67 Egypt 6.4 5.5 2.9 13 48 55 Iraq 7.3 6.4 4.1 13 35 44 Jordan 7.4 6.8 3.1 8 54 58 Lebanon 5.7 3.9 1.9 32 52 68 Libya 6.9 7.2 2.7 -5 62 60 Palestine 7.4 7.0 5.1 5 27 31 Sudan 6.7 6.3 4.2 5 33 36 Syria 7.3 7.2 3.3 2 54 55 Median 7.1 6.6 3.2 7 50 55 Bahrain 7.0 4.6 2.3 34 51 67 Kuwait 7.2 4.9 2.2 33 55 70 Oman 7.2 7.2 3.1 0 57 57 Qatar 7.0 5.5 2.4 22 55 65 Saudi Arabia 7.2 7.0 3.2 2 55 56 U.A.E 7.0 5.2 2.0 25 63 72 Yemen 8.2 8.7 5.3 -6 39 35 Median 7.2 5.4 2.4 22 55 65 Comoros 6.0 7.1 4.0 -18 43 33 Djibouti 7.8 6.6 4.0 15 40 49 Mauritania 6.3 6.3 4.5 1 28 29 Somalia 7.3 6.7 6.4 8 5 12 Median 6.8 6.6 4.3 4 34 31 Arab median 7.2 6.4 3.1 10 53 56

Sub-Saharan 6.6 6.6 5.1 -1 23 23 South-Central Asia 6.0 4.9 2.8 19 42 53 South-Eastern Asia 6.0 4.2 2.3 29 45 61 4 Figure 1: Total Fertility Rate, 2005-10

Algeria 2.4 Morocco 2.4 Tunisia 1.9 Egypt 2.9 Iraq 4.1 Jordan 3.1 Lebanon 1.9 Libya 2.7 Palest ine 5.1 Sudan 4.2 Syria 3.3 Bahrain 2.3 Kuwait 2.2 Oman 3.1 Qatar 2.4 Saudi Arabia 3.2 U.A.E 2.0 Yemen 5.3 Comoros 4.0 Djibouti 4.0 Mauritania 4.5 Somalia 6.4 South-Central Asia 2.8 South-Eastern Asia 2.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Birt hs per W oman Source: UN 2009

5 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Fertility Decline to Date in Arab Region

• Pre-decline fertility was higher than most other regions

• Majority of fertility decline has occurred since 1980-85

• Regional average (median) is 3.1 births per woman

• TFR < 2.5 in eight countries: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, and four Gulf states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, U.A.E.)

• TFR > 4.0 in eight countries: Iraq, Palestine, Sudan, Yemen, Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Somalia

6 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Further Decline: Opportunities and Constraints

Will consider :

• Nuptiality [exposure]

• Fertility desires [motives]

• Birth control [means]

7 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Nuptiality

Substantial changes in past few decades – sharp decline in percentage of women ever married before age 30.

Major contributor to fertility decline to date – roughly one-half

8 UN / December 2009 Figure 2a: Percentage Ever Married, Women Aged 20-24

Alg eria (2002) 16

Morocco (2003) 38

Tunisia (2001) 15

Egypt (2008) 54

Jordan (2007) 37

Lebanon (2004) 19

Syria (2001) 43

Yemen (2003) 59

Comoros (1996) 48

Djibouti (2002) 26

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Percentage Ever Married

Source: DHS and PAPFAM surveys

9 UN / December 2009 Figure 2b: Percentage Ever Married, Women Aged 25-29

Alg eria (2002) 43

Morocco (2003) 59

Tunisia (2001) 47

Egypt (2008) 82

Jordan (2007) 69

Lebanon (2004) 47

Syria (2001) 62

Yemen (2003) 85

Comoros (1996) 77

Djibouti (2002) 50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Percentage Ever Married Source: DHS and PAPFAM surveys

10 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Nuptiality: summary

• Potential for nuptiality change to cause further fertility decline in many countries (Morocco, Egypt, Syria, Yemen).

• Late marriage or non-marriage?

11 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Fertility Desires

Will examine:

• Wanted and unwanted TFRs

• Ideal number of children

• Parity- and age-specific preferences

12 UN / December 2009 Figure 3: Percentage of Births Unw anted

Algeria (2002) 30

Morocco (2003) 33

Tunisia (2001) 25

Egypt (2008) 27

Jordan (2007) 21

Lebanon (2004) 25

Syria (2001) 23

Yemen (2003) 33

0 10 20 30 40 Percent Unwanted

Note: Aggregate Prospective estimates, births during 36 months before survey

13 UN / December 2009 Figure 4: Unw anted Total Fertility Rate

Algeria (2002) 0.8

Morocco (2003) 0.9

Tunisia (2001) 0.6

Egypt (2008) 1.0

Jordan (2007) 0.9

Lebanon (2004) 0.5

Syria (2001) 1.0

Yemen (2003) 2.4

0 .5 1 1.5 2

Unwanted Births per Woman

Not e: Aggregat e Prospective estimates, births during 36 mont hs before survey

14 UN / December 2009 Figure 5: Total Fertility Rate and Components

Algeria (2002) 1.5 2.2

Morocco (2003) 1.6 2.5

Tunisia (2001) 1.5 2.1

Egypt (2008) 2.1 3.0

Jordan (2007) 2.7 3.6

Lebanon (2004) 1.3 1.7

Syria (2001) 2.7 3.7

Yemen (2003) 3.4 5.8

0 1 2 3 4 Births per Woman

Wanted Unwanted

Not e: Aggregat e Prospective estimates, 36 months bef ore survey

15 UN / December 2009 Figure 6: Ideal Number of Children, Women Age 20-29

Algeria 3.4

Morocco 2.7

Tunisia 2.8

Egypt 2.7

Jordan 3.7

Lebanon 3.1

Syria 4.3

Yemen 4.1

0 1 2 3 4 Mean Ideal Number

Note: among women who provide a numeric ideal

16 UN / December 2009 Figure 7a: Ideal Children = 0 or 1, Women Age 20-29

Algeria 2

Morocco 4

Tunisia 4

Egypt 2

Jordan 4

Lebanon 3

Syria 0

Yemen 3

0 2 4 6 8 10

Percentage Ideal Number = 0 or 1

Note: among women who provide a numeric ideal

17 UN / December 2009 Figure 7b: Ideal Children = 3+, Women Age 20-29

Algeria 69

Morocco 45

Tunisia 52

Egypt 47

Jordan 77

Lebanon 66

Syria 88

Yemen 76

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Percentage Ideal Number = 3+

Note: among women who provide a numeric ideal

18 UN / December 2009 Figure 8a: Percentage Not Wanting Another Birth, Parity 2

Algeria 26

Morocco 42

Tunisia 43

Egypt 59

Jordan 22

Lebanon 46

Syria 24

Yemen 16

0 20 40 60 80 Percent Not Wanting

Source: DHS and PAPFAM survey data

19 UN / December 2009 Figure 8b: Percentage Not Wanting Another Birth, Parity 3

Algeria 46

Morocco 62

Tunisia 65

Egypt 86

Jordan 38

Lebanon 68

Syria 47

Yemen 28

0 20 40 60 80 Percent Not Wanting

Source: DHS and PAPFAM survey data

20 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Fertility Desires: summary

• Moderately high unwanted fertility provides potential for further fertility decline

but . . .

• Ideals -- lack of attachment to small-family (two children)

• Preferences – less than one-half wish to stop at: - Two children - Ages 25 - 34

21 UN / December 2009 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Birth Control

At issue is acceptability of means for effective termination of childbearing after a small number of children (e.g. two children)

• Sterilization

• Induced abortion

Neither method of birth control is commonly employed at present

And many reasons to assume this will continue to be the case . . .

22 UN / December 2009 Figure 9: Contraceptive Method Distribution

Alg eria (2002) Morocco (2003) Tunisia (2001)

Egypt (2008) Jordan (2007) Lebanon (2004) Syria (2001)

Kuwait (1996) Oman (1995) Qatar (1998) Saudi Ar abia (1996) U.A.E. (1995) Yemen (2003)

Comoros (1996) Djibouti (2002)

0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage

sterilization iud pill traditional else

Source: DHS, PAPFAM, and Gulf Family Health surveys 23 Fertility Prospects in the Arab Region

Concluding Comments

Significant, and possibly robust, factors acting against the achievement of low fertility in the short-term in the Arab region:

• Two-child norm is not firmly and widely established

• Neither sterilization nor induced abortion are generally available as methods of birth control

Arguing to the contrary – sharp changes in nuptiality, and the potential for further such change. Will low fertility in the Arab region be achieved via non- marriage?

Should not assume that most countries in the region will follow the pathways of Lebanon and Tunisia . . .

24 UN / December 2009