GUATEMALA Food Security Outlook June 2021 to January 2022 Seasonal improvements in food availability and access are insufficient to prevent acute food insecurity KEY MESSAGES • Despite the country’s favorable economic outlook, the slow pace Estimated Food Security Outcomes, June 2021 of vaccinations and rise in COVID-19 cases will not facilitate full IPC 3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase a full economic recovery and, consequently, the recovery of 1: Minimal 2: Stressed family income lost during the pandemic. The tourism sector will 3: Crisis 4: Emergency continue to be one of the most affected sectors, given that it is 5: Famine It is estimated that it would likely be linked to international demand and restrictions to prevent the worse without current or programmed virus from spreading. humanitarian assistance • Food prices remain high, particularly for staple grains. In accordance with seasonal trends, prices will tend to increase until the next primera harvest. The arrival of fresh corn and beans on the market will improve availability and cause prices to slightly drop, although they will most likely remain above the five-year average. Urban and peri-urban public transportation services have yet to resume a normal schedule and still have Source: FEWS NET capacity restrictions and high fees, which continue to impede FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis household movement. follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. • Corn and bean crops are developing favorably across the country and the primera harvest — the only harvest in the Altiplano — and the postrera harvest are expected to be average. However, irregular rainfall during the first rainy season caused planting to be postponed in some eastern areas. In localized western areas, strong winds and hail could affect crop yields. • Countrywide, poor households are expected to continue to have difficulties purchasing their minimum food needs and will likely resort to stressed coping strategies, such as reducing health and education expenses, using up their savings, and consuming lower quality food in their diet to meet their nutritional needs. These households will likely experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the scenario period, although the situation is expected to improve for some households by the start of 2022. • The poorest rural households will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the lean season until September, and many will likely resort to crisis strategies to obtain their food. Beginning in October, however, they will rely on corn and beans from their harvest and income generated during the season of peak demand for labor. Increased income will allow them to improve their food consumption, and an improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected. Among households in the Dry Corridor and areas affected by hurricanes Eta and Iota, however, the rise in income is not expected to prevent food consumption gaps or prevent the use of crisis strategies, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. FEWS NET Guatemala FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not [email protected] necessarily reflect the point of view of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/es/guatemala Development or the United States government. GUATEMALA Food Security Outlook 1BJune 2021 to January 2022 SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET NATIONAL OUTLOOK Projected Food Security Outcomes, June to September Current Situation 2021 IPC 3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Restrictions put in place to prevent the virus from spreading have Phase 1: Minimal not changed since the beginning of the year, guided by the Alert 2: Stressed 3: Crisis Board — for which the Ministry of Health is responsible — which 4: Emergency 5: Famine classifies municipalities according to the incidence of confirmed It is estimated that it would likely be worse without current or programmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The classification by humanitarian assistance colors, ranging from green (new normal), yellow (moderate), orange (high), to red (maximum), refers to capacity restrictions, social distancing and use of face masks. All economic activities are underway and recovering. Some schools have already been authorized for in-person classes in the hybrid learning system, and the business hours of shopping malls, markets, supermarkets, neighborhood stores and restaurants have normalized. Public transportation has not yet gone back to normal. By June 26, 217 municipalities were in red alert (4.4-fold than the figures recorded Source: FEWS NET in February), 64 in orange alert, and 59 in yellow alert. Cases have been steadily rising since the second half of February 2021. By June Projected food security outcomes, October 2021 to 28, 7.2 percent of the population had received one dose of the January 2022 vaccine, and 1.5 percent was fully vaccinated. The country has IPC 3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase received 1.28 million vaccine doses, immunizing a maximum daily 1: Minimal 2: Stressed number of 31,517 people. 3: Crisis 4: Emergency 5: Famine It is estimated that it would likely be Sowings for the primera productive cycle have germinated worse without current or programmed countrywide and crops are developing normally through the humanitarian assistance different phenological stages. In some areas, however, heavy rainfall caused flooding and landslides and crops were damaged by the rain and the wind, particularly in localized areas of Sololá and Totonicapán. On June 24, the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED) reported 219 incidents during the rainy season so far, which affected 1,398 people and destroyed homes and infrastructure. Nationally, markets are operating normally, supplied with stored Source: FEWS NET grain from the Northern Transversal Strip, Petén, and the eastern FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows part of the country, as well as formal and informal corn imports key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national from Mexico. White corn and black bean prices are following food security partners. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 GUATEMALA Food Security Outlook 1BJune 2021 to January 2022 seasonal trends but are above the recent five-year average by 9 percent (Q143.88/QQ) and 16 percent (Q457.70/QQ), respectively. These prices are partly driven by the rise in the cost of fuel and, consequently, transportation, as well as the rise in international yellow corn prices. Economic activity is picking up faster in urban areas, resulting in income opportunities for the informal sector and in the partial recovery of jobs lost during the pandemic. According to a report issued by Banco de Guatemala (BANGUAT), the export outlook for April 2021 shows a year-on-year change of 14.8 percent. Clothing items, cardamom, coffee, banana, and sugar were the most important products. Cardamom was the most exported product in terms of foreign currency, with a 26 percent rise between January and March 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE published by BANGUAT) has shown positive changes since the final months of last year and this year so far as well. It has also shown favorable figures for the main agricultural export products, including sugar, coffee, oil, fruits, and vegetables. As a result, the availability of jobs in these sectors has improved for day laborers. However, activities related to local domestic tourism remain below normal despite some slight signs of recovery, which is mainly driven by the internal movement of people. According to INGUAT, 41 percent fewer non-residents visited the country in March 2021 compared to March 2020, both by land and air. Meanwhile, domestic and regional sources of income in neighboring countries, such as Honduras or Mexico, are seasonally low for rural households. In addition, high transportation costs limit household movement to search for jobs. The volume of remittance inflows to Guatemala reached record-high levels by the end of 2020, despite the impact that the pandemic had on the global economy and the economy of the United States, which is the main country receiving Guatemalan migrants. The first five months of 2021 show steady growth in the flow of remittances, with a 43-percent increase compared to the first five months of 2020 and a 38-percent increase compared to the same period in 2019 (data from BANGUAT). The departments that received the highest volume of remittances are Guatemala, Huehuetenango, San Marcos, Quetzaltenango, and Petén. In terms of the number of families that received remittances, the highest volume was recorded in the first four departments mentioned above, followed by Quiché (CABI). Monthly inflation in Guatemala has been close to 6 percent since February 2021. The categories that are driving this rise include transportation, housing, and restaurants. According to the consumer price index in May 2021, basic expenses that recorded the highest year-on-year change were peri-urban bus services (59.9 percent), regular gasoline (59.4 percent), premium gasoline (54.6 percent), and urban bus services (40.5 percent). Other expenses with major increases are vegetables (güisquil, mint, cabbage, hot chili, and corn). Urban and peri-urban public transportation services have not yet returned to normal, costs remain high, and buses have limited capacity restrictions, thus making it hard to commute to jobs or places to buy food at a better price and reducing resources that can be allocated to food. According to WFP monitoring data as of June 7, 42.9 percent of households reported difficulties in accessing markets. Of these households, 18.4 percent said they could not access the market due to a lack of money, 5.9 percent said the market was too far, and 4.5 percent said they were avoiding the market due to COVID-19.