D3.1: Penetration Strategies for NG Road Transport Use & Proposal for C/LNG Refuelling Stations’ Network Plan
As part of the Activity 3.1. Natural Gas in Road Transportation: Design Plan
VERSION 1 / DRAFT
Deliverable 3.1: Penetration Strategies for NG Road Transport Use and Proposal for CNG / LNG Refuelling
Stations’ Network Plan
As part of the Activity 3.1. Natural Gas in Road Transportation: Design Plan
VERSION 1 / DRAFT
Responsible Partner: DDL Document Code: Version: 1 Date of Submission: 30/11/2018
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CYnergy is co-financed by the European Union's Connecting Europe Facility.
The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Document Details
Grant Agreement Number: INEA/CEF/SYN/A2016/1336268 Action Number: 2016-EU-SA-0009 Project Title: CYnergy Activity: 3 Sub-activity: 3.1 Milestone: 12
Document History
Version Date Authorized 1 30.11.18
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Contributing Authors
DDL Koliousis, Ioannis Efstathiadis, Stylianos Koliousis, Panagiotis Ouzounoglou, Maria
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is confidential, privileged and only for the information of the intended recipient and may not be used, published or redistributed without the prior written consent of Decision Dynamics Ltd and/or the Authors. The opinions expressed are in good faith and while every care has been taken in preparing these documents, Decision Dynamics Ltd and/or the Authors make no representations and gives no warranties of whatever nature in respect of these documents, including but not limited to the accuracy or completeness of any information, facts and/or opinions contained therein. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Forward-looking statements contained in this report are based upon reasonable assumptions; nevertheless, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Decision Dynamics Ltd and/or the Authors undertake no responsibility in the way the reader of this report will use the results and the analyses. Decision Dynamics Ltd and/or the Authors, its subsidiaries, the directors, employees and agents cannot be held liable for the use of and reliance of the opinions, estimates, forecasts and findings in these documents.
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents ...... 1
List of Figures ...... 3
List of Tables ...... 4
1 Deliverable Scoping ...... 6
1.1 Introduction to the Action ...... 6
1.2 Introduction to Activity 3 ...... 7
1.3 Activity 3.1 ...... 8
2 Introduction ...... 9
3 State of the Art ...... 10
3.1 Legal & Regulatory Context ...... 10
3.2 Vehicle types ...... 12
4 The Transportation Sector in the EU ...... 15
4.1 Emission standards ...... 15
4.2 Natural Gas Market Overview ...... 15
4.2.1 Existing NG vehicles and NG Stations ...... 16
4.2.2 Taxation ...... 17
4.2.3 Infrastructure ...... 17
4.3 Renewable Energy Directive ...... 18
4.4 The Fuel Quality Directive ...... 18
4.5 Regulations on fuel economy ...... 19
4.6 Euro Standards of emissions for vehicles ...... 19
5 Cyprus ...... 21
5.1 Country presentation ...... 21
5.2 Transportation sector ...... 22
5.3 Renewable energy in transport ...... 25
5.4 Road Infrastructure ...... 25
5.5 Public Transport ...... 28
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5.6 Case study ...... 29
5.6.1 Integrated Mobility Master Plan for Nicosia ...... 29
5.6.2 Polycentric Nicosia ...... 30
5.6.3 Transport Management Authority ...... 32
5.6.4 Streetscape Manual ...... 32
6 Refueling Station Assignment for C/LNG Vehicles in Cyprus ...... 34
6.1 Review of available models for Refueling Station Assignment ...... 34
6.1.1 Elements of refueling station location problems ...... 34
6.1.2 Approaches for location model ...... 34
6.1.3 Refueling Demand Estimation ...... 35
6.2 Cyprus: Case of Study and General Assumptions...... 36
6.2.1 Study Area and Population ...... 36
6.2.2 Reference Transportation System of Cyprus ...... 37
6.2.3 Traffic Composition ...... 38
6.2.4 Average Annual Vehicle Mileage ...... 42
6.3 Model Selection ...... 43
6.3.1 Basic Scenario ...... 43
6.3.2 Future Demand Scenario ...... 45
6.4 Refueling Stations Assignment ...... 47
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List of Figures
Figure 1 - Activity 3 Layout...... 7 Figure 2 - Total length of the road network in Cyprus in 2015 by road type (Source: Statista) ...... 28 Figure 5 – Map of Cyprus ...... 37 Figure 6 – Main Airport Locations in Cyprus ...... 49 Figure 7 - The motorway network of Cyprus (source: Department of Public Works) ...... 50
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List of Tables
Table 1 - The Clean Mobility & Power Package for Transport ...... 11 Table 2 - Available NGV models (Source: NGVA Europe, ISUZU Australia) ...... 13 Table 3 - European countries with highest number of NGVs (Source: NGVA 2013a) ...... 15 Table 4 - Sales of non-diesel or petrol passenger cars in selected countries - % of total (Source: ICCT, 2013) ...... 16 Table 5 – Existing NG vehicles and NG Stations (Adapted from NGVA Europe - Statistics 2016) ...... 17 Table 6 - Comparison of vehicle fuel tax rates for selected European (Source: NGVA 2013a) ...... 17 Table 7 - History and levels of Euro standards for passenger cars (Source: European Automobile Manufacturers Association) ...... 20 Table 8 - Republic of Cyprus, Statistical Service, 2013 (Source: http://www.cystat.gov.cy/) ...... 22 Table 9 - Registration of vehicles by category, type of registration and energy type, January – October 2018 (Source: Statistical Service of Cyprus – CYSTAT) ...... 23 Table 10 - Registration of motor vehicles by month and type of registration, 2011-2018 (Source: CYSTAT) ...... 24 Table 11 - Total length of motorways in selected European countries (Source: Eurostat) 26 Table 12 - Current highway network in Cyprus (Source: Penetration of alternative fuels in Cyprus road and maritime sectors) ...... 26 Table 13 - Basic characteristics of the defined public transport networks (Source: IMMP Final Report) ...... 31 Table 14 - Cyprus Census Base Data used in the assignment model ...... 37 Table 15 - licensed vehicles in Cyprus for the relevant year 2009 ...... 39 Table 16 - new registrations of motor vehicles by year and category of vehicle ...... 40 Table 17 - number of licensed vehicles per category and year for the latest five years ... 40 Table 18 - Growth Rate of the number of licensed vehicles in Cyprus, 2014-2018 ...... 41 Table 19 - considered vehicle categories, combined with data upon licensed vehicles in Cyprus, the annual traffic composition 2014-2018 ...... 42 Table 20 - assumed average annual vehicle mileage travelled allocated to each vehicle category ...... 42 Table 21 - initial number of CNG and LNG vehicles per vehicle category (Base Assumptions) ...... 43
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Table 22 - C/LNG vehicles composition 2020 ...... 44 Table 23 - Distribution of the C/LNG refilling stations (2020) ...... 44 Table 24 - Penetration rate of C/LNG vehicles for each category ...... 45 Table 25 - Total number of licensed C/LNG vehicles per vehicle category (2040) ...... 46 Table 26 – Total number of operated vehicles (2040) ...... 46 Table 27 - C/LNG vehicle distribution as number of the total vehicle fleet (CY, 2040) ..... 47 Table 28 - Distance matrix between the five main cities of Cyprus ...... 48 Table 29 - Population distribution per district ...... 51 Table 30 - Number of gas stations per district (year: 2040): Model proposal ...... 51 Table 31 - Number of vehicle kilometers traveled by each C/LNG vehicle category ...... 52 Table 32 - Estimated number of vehicle kilometers traveled by each vehicle category .... 53 Table 33 - Association between the C/LNG vehicle kilometers and the total vehicle kilometers ...... 53
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1 Deliverable Scoping
1.1 Introduction to the Action
CYnergy contributes to the implementation of the action PCI 7.3.2 "Removing internal bottlenecks in Cyprus to end isolation and to allow for the transmission of gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region". The project will build the necessary infrastructure and relevant equipment intended to supply natural gas to Cyprus. Thus it will remove internal bottlenecks and terminate energy isolation. The Action is also part of the Orient/East-Med TEN-T Corridor, as well as the complete Core and Comprehensive Port and Road Networks of Cyprus. CYnergy strategy has a focal point the floating Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Storage Facility to be developed in Cyprus and aims at developing a comprehensive strategy for the introduction and the use of Natural Gas (NG) by the sectors of transport and energy in Cyprus. The CYnergy project concentrates on implementing technical, financial, commercial, marketing and environmental studies for the introduction of LNG and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as alternative energy sources in the industrial and transport sectors. This will aid in the development of the respective L/CNG supply chain, the financing of necessary investments and the market roll-out and the optimization of the relevant inefficiencies. The Action promoted optimisation studies are required for the efficient establishment of an Integrated Storage and Transmission System (ISTS) of NG, aimed specifically to the industry, energy and transport sectors (marine and road transport) of the island of Cyprus, in the form of CNG and LNG. More specifically, the Action's goals is to achieve optimised downstream, upstream and midstream NG facilities through five proposed approaches:
The definition of the best available solutions for main NG supply, storage, trade and distribution in Cyprus; The exploration of the possible complementary schemes in supply, storage, trade and distribution of NG; The possible development of a secondary LNG market (INTRAMED), utilising small- scale LNG bunkering vessels; The investigation of the possible development of a complementary CNG waterborne supply chain; The exploration of the possible distribution and consumption of NG by road transport, industrial and commercial users and the maritime sector; The development of dedicated implementation plans per sector explored.
The deliverables of the Action (studies and reports) are to be used by the governmental bodies and to become the basis of synergistic actions in the industry, energy and transport sectors. The ultimate objective is to contribute to a smooth transition to the alternative energy sources and to ensure a sustainable energy and transport system in Cyprus.
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1.2 Introduction to Activity 3
Activity 3, “NG in Road Transportation: Design, Legislation & Implementation Plan” aims at analysing the penetration of both CNG and LNG in the freight and passenger mobility at the urban, peri-urban, regional and national context in Cyprus. The Activity consists of four distinctive and interdependent sub-activities (Figure 1).
Legal and NG Road Cost Analysis of Regulatory Transport Design NG in Road Framework Implementation Transport Detailed Analysis Plan
Figure 1 - Activity 3 Layout
Sub-activity 3.1: Design
The aim of this sub-activity is to examine the alternative penetration strategies and to develop a proposed optimum positioning (at the strategic level) for the CNG and LNG refuelling stations.
Sub-activity 3.2: Legal and Regulatory Framework Detailed Analysis
The aim of this sub-activity is to perform a detailed analysis of the current status of the relevant Legal and Regulatory Framework in Cyprus, as well as of the current rules, standards and guidelines for the use of NG in road transport that prevail at a European level. For performing the analysis, the relevant EU and Greek legislative and regulatory framework, as well as the relevant European practice in general, will be taken as a benchmark. The aim of this review is to isolate and analyse in detail thematic areas of critical concern.
Sub-activity 3.3: Cost Analysis of NG in Road Transport
The aim of this sub-activity is to perform a detailed Cost Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for the use of NG in road transport based on the proposed penetration strategy.
Sub-activity 3.4: NG Road Transport Implementation Plan
The aim of this sub-activity is to propose an implementation plan for the use of NG in road transport. Activity 3 is expected to deliver the following reports:
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Penetration Strategies for NG Road Transport Use and Proposal of CNG and LNG Refuelling Stations Networks Legal and Regulatory Framework Detailed Analysis for NG Road Transport Use Cost Analysis for NG Road Transport Use Implementation Roadmap for NG Road Transport Use
1.3 Activity 3.1
Activity 3.1 “Design” studies the different strategies that may be used to develop a proposed positioning at the strategic level for the C/LNG refuelling stations. More precisely, this subactivity
Examines the alternative penetration strategies Develops a strategic positioning for the refuelling stations based on a nuber of assumptions as well as on the calculations. Review of Penetration Strategies - Best Practices
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2 Introduction
Cyprus is currently primarily reliant on fossil fuels. Fossil fuel representing more than 90% of the total energy consumption. Petroleum based products are the most widespread in the energy market of Cyprus. These product have to be imported, making the Cypriot economy and security fully dependent on other countries and other importers. Additionally, this makes the economy reliant on expensive energy sources. Fossil fuels contribute to the emissions reducing the quality of the environment through the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and air pollutant emissions. The Cypriot transport sector consumes more than 30% of the domestic energy. This sector is entirely dependent on fossil fuels, as almost any kind of vehicle is using either petrol or diesel. We estimate that there will have to be a significant drive and adequate motives to be given in order to achieve the current sustainable energy policies, for example the 10% penetration objective of renewable energy sources (RES) in transport energy consumption by EU Member States by 2020. The long-term decarbonisation of the transport sector will require a number of components to be fulfilled, including both an increase in vehicle energy efficiency, a shift in the current energy mix towards RES and a kick-start in the form of motives from the relevant authorities. This report focuses on estimating the penetration of Natural Gas in the forms of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) in the transport sector based on the experience in other Member States, state of the art literature review and expert opinions. More precisely the main objectives of this report is to showcase:
The penetration of C/LNG in the road transport sector in Cyprus To understand the potential number of refuelling stations that will be needed to support the penetration To examine the potential layout at the country level of the refuelling stations To propose a mix of actions for improving the penetration of the C/LNG as a viable fuelling option.
This version of the report focuses on the frist 3 items and the next version will update the 3 actions and fulfill the objective No.4. Nevertheless, it has to be noted that this report focuses on C/LNG fuels and doesn’t consider the rest of the fuel options like hydrogen and electricity. These options are only starting to enter the European market (with a lag to be deployed in Cyprus soon) and thus contractually and practically should remain outside the scope for the moment being. A solid strategy for the promotion of the main RES technologies is required. This strategy should focus on the transport sector and by identifying the relevant experience, the gaps, the barriers and the objectives, it should propose those measures that will increase the share of RES based fuels in the transport fuel mix.
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3 State of the Art
3.1 Legal & Regulatory Context
The European Commission holds a vital position in fostering the development of natural gas as a transportation fuel through EU policies and regulations that shape the future development of the NGV sector. Although the majority of these are intended to promote natural gas use as a transport fuel and reduce its environmental impact, there is a risk of conflict between them. The most important pieces of natural gas related legislation have been the Gas Directives, consisted of the First Gas Directive (Directive 98/30/EC of 22 June 1998), the Second Gas Directive (Directive 2003/55/EC of 26 June 2003) and the Third Gas Directive1 (Directive 2009/73/EC of 13 July 2009), complemented by the Gas Regulation and the ACER Regulation. In February 2015, the Commission announced the new Energy Union strategy (the Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy) that highlights the importance of these policy goals (i.e., security of gas supply and a fully integrated European gas market), and puts their effective implementation and enforcement as a top priority for the coming years. In November 2017, the Commission proposed to extend the applicability of the Third Gas Directive to gas pipelines to and from third countries for which there is currently no comprehensive EU regulatory framework in place. The EU legislation for natural gas is summarized as follows:
Directive 94/22/EC of 30 May 1994 on the conditions for granting and using authorizations for the prospection, exploration and production of hydrocarbons (the Hydrocarbon Licensing Directive); Directive 2008/92/EC of 22 October 2008 concerning the transparency of gas prices charged to industrial end users; and Directive 2009/73/EC of 13 July 2009 concerning common rules for the internal market in gas (the Third Gas Directive). Regulation 715/2009/EC of 13 July 2009 on conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks (the Gas Regulation)2.
1 It was part of the EU’s Third Energy Package, the original aim of which was completing the single European gas market by 2014. 2 The Gas Regulation is supplemented by Regulation 312/2014 of 26 March 2014 establishing a Network Code on Gas Balancing of Transmission Networks (the Network Code on Gas Balancing); Regulation 2017/459 of 16 March 2017 establishing a Network Code on Capacity Allocation Mechanisms in Gas Transmission Systems (the Network Code on CAM); Commission Decision of 30 April 2015 and Commission Decision of 24 August 2012 on conditions and procedures to reduce congestion in European gas transmission pipelines; Regulation 2015/703 of 30 April 2015 establishing a Network Code on Interoperability and Data Exchange Rules (the Network Code on
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Regulation 713/2009 of 13 July 2009 establishing an Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER Regulation); Regulation 1227/2011 of 25 October 2011 on wholesale energy market integrity and transparency (REMIT) prohibiting the use of inside information or other market manipulation in energy wholesale markets; and Regulation (EU) 2017/1938 of 25 October 2017 concerning measures to safeguard the security of gas supply (the Security of Supply Regulation).
In addition, the EC presented the Clean Mobility Package on 8 November 20173, as well as an Action Plan on Alternative Fuels Infrastructure in order to increase investments across the Member States and public acceptance. The Clean Power for Transport package aims to create a single market for alternative fuels and requires Member States to develop national policy frameworks regarding the following items depicted in Table 1.
Table 1 - The Clean Mobility & Power Package for Transport
Coverage Timings
Electricity in Appropriate number of By end 2020 urban/suburban and publically accessible points other densely populated areas
CNG in urban/suburban Appropriate number of By end 2020 and other densely points populated areas
CNG along the TEN-T Appropriate number of By end 2025 core network points
Electricity at shore-side Ports of the TEN-T core By end 2025 network and other ports
Hydrogen in the Member Appropriate number of By end 2025 States who choose to points develop it
Interoperability); and Regulation 2017/460 of 16 March 2017 establishing a Network Code on Harmonised Transmission Tariff Structures for Gas (the Network Code on Rules regarding Harmonised Transmission Tariff Structures for Gas).; 3 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/road/news/2017-11-08-driving-clean-mobility_en
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LNG at maritime ports Ports of the TEN-T core By end 2025 network Ports of the TEN-T core network
LNG at inland ports Ports of the TEN-T core By end 2030 network Ports of the TEN-T core network
LNG for heavy-duty Appropriate number of By end 2025 vehicles points along the TEN-T core network
Source: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/urban/cpt_it
3.2 Vehicle types
Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs) provide several advantages over petrol or LPG fueled vehicles, mainly due to the fact that natural gas is cheaper and more efficient than LPG, petrol or diesel and, at the same time, produces lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions, particulate emissions and carbon monoxide than petrol and diesel4. Around the world, the NGV market is growing strongly as there are almost 20 million NGVs and 25,000 refuelling stations to this day. According to some forecasts, numbers will almost double, to around 35 million NGVs by 2020. Since 2009, the majority of NGVs are buses mostly popular in the U.S., India, Argentina and Germany. The penetration rate in most of the countries was increased due to government support generally for the natural gas sector, including through heavy taxation of other fuel sources, tax breaks and provision of incentives for uptake of NGVs. In addition, it is being further encouraged by the EU’s emissions reduction targets because NGVs produce lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions compared to petrol or diesel vehicles and they represent an immediate option for meeting the target. Italy, Germany, Bulgaria and Sweden are important players in the EU NGV market, which is dominated by light vehicles (98% of the total EU NGV fleet) and has far more CNG refuelling stations than LNG ones. Furthermore, there are almost 1.200 small vehicle refuelling appliances across Europe, which allow residents to refuel their NGVs at home using their existing gas connection and therefore pay for it through their gas bill. Time and prices for home refuelling can also be higher. Manufacturers such as Fiat, VW, Audi and Opel, IVECO, Mercedes-Daimler and Volvo are making passenger and large NGVs available in the European market. For large vehicles, IVECO, Mercedes-Daimler and Volvo
4 Beer et al. (2004). Life-Cycle Emissions Analysis of Fuels for Light Vehicles: Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office
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have models available in Europe. The table below shows some of the NGV models available.
Table 2 - Available NGV models (Source: NGVA Europe, ISUZU Australia)
Manufacturer Model Vehicle Type
Fiat Panda 1.4 8V Natural Power (bi-fuel) Car
500 L Natural Power (bi-fuel) Car
Punto Evo 1.4 8V Natural Power (bi-fuel) Car
Qubo 1.4 8V Natural Power (bi-fuel) Car
Fiorino 1,4 8V Natural Power (bi-fuel) Car
Doblo 1.4 T-Jet 16V Natural Power (bi-fuel) Car
Ducato Natural Power Van
Doblo Cargo Natural Power Turbo (bi-fuel) Van
Fiorino Natural Power (bi-fuel) Van
Lancia Ypsilon Ecochic Methane (bi-fuel) Car
Mercedes-Benz B 200 NGT (bi-fuel) Car
E 200 NGT Car
Sprinter NGT (bi-fuel) Van
Opel Zafira Tourer 1,6 CNG Turbo ecoFLEX Car Zafira 1.6 CNG Turbo ecoFLEX Car Combo 1,4 CNG ecoFLEX Van Seat Mii CNG Car Skoda Citigo CNG Car Volkswagen Up! CNG (bi-fuel) Car Golf VII 1.4 (bi-fuel) Car Passat 1,4 TSI EcoFuel (bi-fuel) Car Touran 1,4 TSI EcoFuel Car Touran Cross 1,4 TSI EcoFuel Car Caddy 2,0 EcoFuel Van
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Caddy 2,0 Maxi EcoFuel Van Caddy Tramper 2,0 EcoFuel Car T5 2.0 BiFuel Van Audi A3 1.4 TCNG (bi-fuel) Car A4 TCNG (bi-fuel) Car Volvo V70 CNG (bi-Fuel) Car Dual Fuel (Methane / Diesel) Truck Saab 9-3 Sport Combi (Flex-Fuel) Car IVECO Daily CNG Van Stralis CNG Truck Stralis LNG Truck Daimler Econic CNG Truck Econic LNG Truck Scania CNG Truck Isuzu NLR 200 CNG Truck NPR 300 CNG Truck FSR 700 CNG Truck FSR 850 CNG Truck
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4 The Transportation Sector in the EU
4.1 Emission standards
Natural gas has the lowest carbon footprint of all fossil fuels, considering that a switch from petrol, diesel or heavy fuel oil to natural gas can lead to up to 25% decrease of CO2 emissions, as well as immediate minimization of the amount of nitrogen oxides, sulphur and particulate matters that impact air quality and health.
4.2 Natural Gas Market Overview
Petroleum fuels are currently the dominant player in the European road transportation market, which consists of about 343 million vehicles. The reason partly lies in the fact that most of the gas supplies are imported, thus the prices are higher. In the last few years, gas is being utilised in either dedicated natural gas engines or dual-fuel engines, that used to burn petrol or diesel. Natural gas vehicles constitute only the 0.4% of the total market, the biggest share of which hold Ukraine and Italy.
Country Total NGVs % of NGVs compared to the total vehicle population
Ukraine 387.981 5,13
Italy 846.000 2,07
Bulgaria 61.270 1,83
Sweden 44.319 0,92
Table 3 - European countries with highest number of NGVs (Source: NGVA 2013a)
Although the cost of natural gas in Europe is higher compared to the U.S. there is still great cost advantage over diesel. Apart from the prices, there are various other factors that make an impact in the growth of NGVs in Europe including taxation, regulatory framework and adequate access to appropriate infrastructure.
CARS FRANCE GERMANY ITALY UK EU TOTAL
2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012
HYBRID 0,6 1,3 0,4 0,7 0,3 0,5 1,2 1,2 0,7 1,1 ELECTRIC
ELECTRIC / 0,12 0,32 0,07 0,12 0,07 0,04 0,06 0,09 0,07 0,16 FUEL CELL
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CNG/LPG 0,5 0,1 0,3 0,5 5,2 12,9 0 0 1 1,9
ETHANOL / 0,3 0,32 0,1 0,1 0 0 0 0 0,2 0,2 GASOLINE
Table 4 - Sales of non-diesel or petrol passenger cars in selected countries - % of total (Source: ICCT, 2013)
4.2.1 Existing NG vehicles and NG Stations According to a study by the European Commission (LNG Blue Corridors, http://lngbc.eu), there were only 43 LNG stations in the EU by the end of 2014, the vast majority of which, about 90%, were located in Spain, the Netherlands, the U.K. and Sweden5.
COUNTRY STATIONS VEHICLES COUNTRY STATIONS VEHICLES
AUSTRIA 172 7.084 LITHUANIA 3 343
BELGIUM 78 5.365 LUXEMBOURG 7 306
BULGARIA 125 69.820 MALTA - -
CROATIA 2 318 NETHERLANDS 183 11.020
CYPRUS - - POLAND 28 3.600
CZECH REPUBLIC 143 15.500 PORTUGAL 19 570
DENMARK 15 327 ROMANIA 1 1.390
ESTONIA 6 1.504 SLOVAKIA 11 1.893
FINLAND 29 2.375 SLOVENIA 4 335
FRANCE 60 14.548 SPAIN 66 5.797
GERMANY 885 93.964 SWEDEN 173 54.379
GREECE 10 2.210 UK 38 310
HUNGARY 10 6.314 EFTA ICELAND 5 1.236
5 Osorio-Tejada, Jose Luis & Llera-Sastresa, Eva & Scarpellini, Sabina. (2015). LNG: an alternative fuel for road freight transport in Europe. 235-246. 10.2495/SD150211.
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IRELAND 1 8 EFTA NORWAY 7 745
ITALY 1.186 1.001.614 EFTA 141 12.912 SWITZERLAND
LATVIA - -
TOTAL 3.408 1.315.787
Table 5 – Existing NG vehicles and NG Stations (Adapted from NGVA Europe - Statistics 2016)
Natural gas important commercial and environmental benefits, thus its potential to transform the transportation sector is significant. Yet, despite its multiple benefits, natural gas has so far had limited penetration in the EU and Europe has a small share – around 11% - of the global NGV population.
4.2.2 Taxation European countries are provided significant tax related incentives towards the use of natural gas for transportation, the most supportive of which are found in Belgium, the U.K and France.
€/LITRE TAX IN $/MMBTU TAX IN €/KM
Diesel Diesel Natural Gas Diesel Natural Gas
FRANCE 0,43 17,1 0 0,14 0
GERMANY 0,46 18,4 5,6 0,15 0,05
NETHERLANDS 0,44 17,6 7,6 0,14 0,08
U.K. 0,67 26,8 9,5 0,21 0,09
Table 6 - Comparison of vehicle fuel tax rates for selected European (Source: NGVA 2013a)
4.2.3 Infrastructure In comparison to other forms of transmission, such as high-voltage installations, natural gas transmission infrastructure has a minimal impact on the environment and is a highly cost- effective technology for transmitting and storing energy. CNG and LNG refueling stations display considerable variations. The main differences lay in the fact that CNG stations require heavier equipment and more complex configuration, while LNG stations need greater safety measures during fueling. CNG stations, according to the application for which they are needed are classified into three types: fast-fill, time-fill, or a combination of these two. Usually, retail stations use fast-fill infrastructure, while central
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refueling stations use time-fill to fill overnight. The structure of LNG stations is similar to conventional fuels stations, as they all deliver fuels in liquid form. LNG refueling is possible through four types of stations:
Mobile Units: A station “on wheels” is basically a truck that carries an LNG tank with a trailer dispenser and offers remote monitoring and support, lower investment and maintenance costs and greater sustainability. Containerized Stations: They are composed of a storage tank, dispensers, metering and required containment. They form a cost-effective solution, are able to serve a small number of vehicles and they are ideal for remote locations with limited investment cost. Permanent large stations: Permanent stations have the greatest storage capacity, offer services tailored to different fleets’ needs and require almost ten times the investment of a portable fuel station (Source: https://oilprice.com).
4.3 Renewable Energy Directive
The Renewable Energy Directive is a policy for the promotion of energy production from renewable sources. It requires that EU member states should fulfil at least 20% of its total energy needs with renewables by 2020, a requirement that must be met through the accomplishment of national targets for each country that are set through national renewable energy action plans. In particular, at least 10% of every EU country’s transport fuels should come from renewable sources by 2020. The main purpose of national targets is to grant certainty for investors and reassure continuous development of renewable energy technologies. The 20% target is adjusted in accordance with the existing level, the potential and the energy mix of renewable resources of each Member State due regard to a fair and adequate treatment, as they are parameters with great variation. The EU should strive to reduce total energy consumption in transport and increase energy efficiency. To do so, Member States should focus on transport planning, public transport support, increasing the share of the production of electric cars and overall producing more energy efficient cars smaller both in size and in engine capacity. A proposal for a revised Renewable Energy Directive was published in November 2016 by the EC, to ensure that at least 27% of the EU final energy consumption will come from renewables by 2030, transforming the EU in a global leader in the field of renewable energy. The Directive encourages cooperation amongst the EU countries as well as with third countries for the achievement of their renewable energy targets. This cooperation can be realized through statistical transfers, joint projects and support schemes.
4.4 The Fuel Quality Directive
There are several strict requirements that road transport fuels have to meet in the EU, with regard to the protection of the environment and public health and according to the vision for
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the establishment of a single fuel market. The Fuel Quality Directive6 requires a minimum 6% reduction of the greenhouse gas intensity of fuels used in transport by 2020 from a 2010 baseline, applying to petrol, diesel and biofuels used in road transport. All Member States have been required to apply those rules since April 2017. The greenhouse gas intensity of transport fuels is calculated on a life-cycle basis and covers emissions from extraction, processing and distribution. The method with which the reporting will be applied as well as the details for the reporting are defined by Council Directive (EU) 2015/652. The 6% reduction target is likely to be achieved mainly through using biofuels, electricity and renewable fuels.
4.5 Regulations on fuel economy
4.6 Euro Standards of emissions for vehicles
In the European Union vehicle emissions7 are regulated with different standards applying for each vehicle type (cars, trucks, locomotives, tractors, barges, airplanes, etc.), nominally referred to as “Euro Standards”. Vehicles that are non-compliant cannot be sold in the EU and new models introduced must meet the current of future planned standards, but vehicles already on the roads are not obliged to meet them. They are typically classified as Euro 1, Euro 2, Euro 3, Euro 4, Euro 5 and Euro 6 for light duty vehicles and Euro I, Euro II, etc. for heavy duty vehicles. The EU emission regulations for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (new light duty vehicles) were once specified in Directive 70/220/EEC with a number of amendments adopted through 2004. In 2007, this Directive was repealed and replaced by Regulation 715/2007 (Euro 5/6). Some of the important regulatory steps implementing emission standard for light duty vehicles were:
Euro 1 standards (also known as EC 93): Directives 91/441/EEC (passenger cars only) or 93/59/EEC (passenger cars and light trucks); Euro 2 standards (EC 96): Directives 94/12/EC or 96/69/EC; Euro 3/4 standards (2000/2005): Directive 98/69/EC, further amendments in 2002/80/EC; Euro 5/6 standards (2009/2014): Regulation 715/2007 (“political” legislation) and several comitology regulations.
6 Directive 98/70/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 1998 relating to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels as amended by Directive 2009/30/EC. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32009L0030 7 Nitrogen oxides (NOx), total hydrocarbon (THC), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM).
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Introduction dates Petrol Diesel Petrol & Diesel
Euro New All new NOx Mass of NOx Mass of Number of standard approvals registrations (g/km) particles (g/km) particles ultra-fine (g/km) (g/km) particles per km
Euro 1 1 July 1992 31 December 0.97 - 0.97 0.14 - 1992
Euro 2 1 January 1 January 0.5 - 0.9 0.1 - 1996 1997
Euro 3 1 January 1 January 0.15 - 0.5 0.05 - 2000 2001
Euro 4 1 January 1 January 0.08 - 0.25 0.025 - 2005 2006
Euro 5 1 September 1 January 0.06 0.0045 0.18 0.0045 6 x 1011 2009 2011
Euro 6 1 September 1 September 0.06 0.0045 0.08 0.0045 6 x 1011 2014 2015
Table 7 - History and levels of Euro standards for passenger cars (Source: European Automobile Manufacturers Association)
As of 1 September 2017, new car models that are to be released on European roads are obliged to pass new and more reliable emissions tests in real driving conditions (“Real Driving Emissions” – RDE) as well as an improved laboratory test (“World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure” – WLTP). In March 2018 the EC proposed to improve those tests and the Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles (TCMV) approved on 3 May.
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5 Cyprus
5.1 Country presentation
The Republic of Cyprus is the third largest island in the Mediterranean Sea, of 9,251 km² extending 240 km from east to west and 100 km from north to south, located at its northeast corner. It holds a very important position as it is located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa having 648 km of coastline. On 1 May 2004 the Republic of Cyprus became a full member of the EU and in January 2008 Cyprus joined the Eurozone.
Picture 1 - Source: CIA, World Factbook
According to the 2011 Population Census of the Republic of Cyprus8, the total population recorded in the Government controlled area was 840.407, showing an increase of 21.87% compared to 2001. It has been calculated, based on the post-census survey, that a rate of 1.93% was not recorded (were absent, not reported, did not respond, etc.), raising the population to 856.960 on October 1, 2011 compared to 703.529 in 2001.
POPULATION BY PROVINCE
2001 2011 Population growth (%)
Nicosia 273.642 326.980 19,49
Limassol 196.553 235.330 19,72
Larnaca 115.268 143.192 24,22
8 http://www.cystat.gov.cy
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Paphos 66.364 88.276 33,01
Ammochostos 37.738 46.629 23,56
TOTAL 689.565 840.407 21.87
Table 8 - Republic of Cyprus, Statistical Service, 2013 (Source: http://www.cystat.gov.cy/)
About 95% of the population’s residences are located in the four largest cities: Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca and Paphos. The latter three cities, which are the main touristic centres, accommodate more than half of the population of Cyprus and their ports are the economic centres of the island.
Picture 2 - Cyprus roadmap (http://www.mapsofcyprus.co.uk
5.2 Transportation sector
According to the Registration of Motor Vehicles report published by the Department of Road Transport in November 2018, the total registrations of motor vehicles increased by 14,3% to 41.908 in January-October 2018, from 36.669 in January-October 2017.
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Table 9 - Registration of vehicles by category, type of registration and energy type, January – October 2018 (Source: Statistical Service of Cyprus – CYSTAT)
CATEGORY TYPE OF ENERGY TYPE TOTAL REGISTRATION
New Used Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid Other
34.600 Passenger Cars 11.563 23.037 17.983 15.167 26 1.416 8
29.940 Private 9.257 20.683 14.532 14.037 24 1.340 7
146 Taxis 19 127 5 137 0 4 0
4.514 Other 2.287 2.227 3.446 993 2 66 1
178 Motor coaches and 43 135 1 177 0 0 0 buses
7 Private 2 5 1 6 0 0 0
171 Public 41 130 0 171 0 0 0
4303 Goods conveyance 1.453 2.850 134 4.167 2 0 0 vehicles
259 Mopeds < 50cc 252 7 166 0 93 0 0
2189 Mechanised cycles > 1.761 428 2.180 6 2 0 1 50 cc
154 Tractors 83 71 8 146 0 0 0
225 Other vehicles 108 117 0 225 0 0 0
TOTAL 15.263 26.645 20.472 19.888 123 1.416 9 41.908
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Table 10 - Registration of motor vehicles by month and type of registration, 2011-2018 (Source: CYSTAT)
YEAR TYPE JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL 2011 Total 3.251 3.223 3.485 3.160 3.370 3.514 2.835 2.543 2.692 2.904 2.849 2.438 36.264 New 1.712 1.793 2.001 1.816 1.930 2.032 1.497 1.371 1.417 1.601 1.624 1.473 20.267 Used 1.539 1.430 1.484 1.344 1.440 1.482 1.338 1.172 1.275 1.303 1.225 965 15.997
2012 Total 2.505 2.374 2.395 2.438 2.564 2.337 2.382 1.852 1.761 1.903 1.593 1.725 25.829 New 1.359 1.421 1.282 1.477 1.522 1.333 1.355 976 981 1.087 968 715 14.476 Used 1.146 953 1.113 961 1.042 1.004 1.027 876 780 816 625 1.010 11.353
2013 Total 1.980 1.512 1.182 1.461 1.574 1.549 1.689 1.474 1.614 1.451 1.527 1.554 18.567 New 1.001 809 602 783 910 910 986 751 829 712 757 694 9.744 Used 979 703 580 678 664 639 703 723 785 739 770 860 8.823
2014 Total 1.877 1.634 1.690 1.763 2.123 2.103 2.353 1.509 1.942 2.056 1.725 1.428 22.203 New 920 883 923 914 1.199 1.129 1.261 635 1.009 989 826 706 11.394 Used 957 751 767 849 924 974 1.092 874 933 1.067 899 722 10.809
2015 Total 2.047 1.643 2.150 2.041 2.215 2.374 2.608 1.721 2.508 2.143 2.148 2.137 25.735 New 1.025 801 1.164 922 1.235 1.212 1.470 777 1.274 1.153 1.122 1.122 13.277 Used 1.022 842 986 1.119 980 1.162 1.138 944 1.234 990 1.026 1.015 12.458 2016 Total 2.362 2.265 2.848 2.660 3.160 3.211 3.260 2.484 3.125 2.571 3.109 2.750 33.805 New 1.308 1.139 1.607 1.441 1.749 1.616 1.637 1.044 1.364 1.258 1.318 1.107 16.588 Used 1.054 1.126 1.241 1.219 1.411 1.595 1.623 1.440 1.761 1.313 1.791 1.643 17.217 2017 Total 3.434 2.779 4.121 3.352 4.083 4.388 3.739 3.137 3.800 3.836 3.758 3.213 43.640 New 1.555 1.249 1.817 1.496 1.782 2.035 1.530 982 1.357 1.365 1.363 1.076 17.607 Used 1.879 1.530 2.304 1.856 2.301 2.353 2.209 2.155 2.443 2.471 2.395 2.137 26.033
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Cyprus presents an active participation in the “Motorways of the Sea” concept, and more specifically in the Motorway of the Sea of south-east Europe connecting the Adriatic Sea to the Ionian Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean corridor. Cypriotic ports are the country’s gateways to the world, thus Cyprus has participated in the Trans-European Networks Study of the EU and has submitted its proposals regarding port development programmes, so that they can be part of the Mediterranean network. Other infrastructure projects that are incorporated in the TEN-T network are: Larnaca and Paphos airports, Limassol and Larnaca Ports, A1 (Limassol-Nicosia) motorway, A2 (Larnaca – Nicosia) motorway, A5 (Limassol – Larnaca) motorway and A6 (Limasso – Paphos) motorway.
5.3 Renewable energy in transport
Cyprus has been entirely depended on imported petroleum for which approximately 7% of the GDP is being spent. Since Cyprus entered the EU, it was mandatory to follow new rules and face new constraints for subjects such as reduction of the emissions, environmental protection and public health improvement.
5.4 Road Infrastructure
The road network of Cyprus is dense with about 30 km of motorways per 1000 km2, which is twice as high as the EU-25 average. Overall, it comprises about 11.419 km of roads of which 272 km motorways according to data provided in 20169. The primary road network within Cyprus is constituted of about 2.178 km national and 8.973 km paved and unpaved roads that link towns and villages.
Total length of motorways (km)
2014 2015 2016
Bulgaria 610 734 740
Cyprus 257 272 272
U.K. 3.759 3.768 3.764
Netherlands 2.678 2.730 2.756
Germany 12.949 12.993 12.996
Spain 15.049 15.336 15444
France 11.560 11.599 11.612
9 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/
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Hungary 1.781 1.883 1.924
Portugal 3.065 3.065 3.065
Table 11 - Total length of motorways in selected European countries (Source: Eurostat)
ROUTE APPROXIMATE LENGTH (km) HIGHWAY
Paphos – Polis 40 A7
Paphos – Limassol 70 A6
Limassol – Larnaca 70 A1-A5
Larnaca – Nicosia 50 A2-A1
Limassol – Nicosia 90 A1
Larnaca airport – Ayia Napa 60 A3
Larnaca – Larnaca airport 6 A4
Nicosia – Astromeritis 40 A9
Table 12 - Current highway network in Cyprus (Source: Penetration of alternative fuels in Cyprus road and maritime sectors)
Roads and Motorways in Cyprus can be classified into 5 main categories:
1. Motorways with two lanes per direction, free of any at-grade intersections, with the letter "A" being used on their official numbering system.
They are the most important road network on the island and they usually run parallel to the same-number "B class" intercity roads that they replaced. The A1 motorway (AADT in vehicles: 64.450), locally referred to as the Nicosia - Limassol highway, was completed in October 1985 and is 73 km long being the oldest and longest motorway in Cyprus free of any at-grade intersections. It links Nicosia, which is the capital and administrative and financial hub, with Limassol, the largest port and second largest city on the island. The A2 motorway, referred to locally as the Nicosia – Larnaca motorway, is a road which branches off the A1 at Pera Chorio – Nisou and connects to the A3. It is 21 km long and also called "the tube" because it is mostly straight with a very limited number of exits. The A3 motorway is a modern motorway linking Larnaca International Airport, the largest airport in Cyprus, and Ayia Napa, a very popular tourist destination. The first part of the road
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until Dhekelia is locally referred as "Larnaca Beltway and the second part till the end of the motorway as "Dhekelia - Famagusta Motorway". It is 55 km long and took about 10 years to be completed. The A5 motorway (AADT in vehicles: 18.500) links the A1 motorway at the level of Kofinou village with the A3 near Larnaca. It is 19 km long and serves as the main route linking the cities of Limassol and Larnaca while running parallel to the older B5 Main Road. The A6 highway (AADT in vehicles: 30.900), locally referred to as the Limassol – Paphos highway, is 66 km long and is free of any at-grade intersections. It links Limassol with Paphos, the top tourist destination on the island. It was completed in 2006 and features two two-lane 950 m tunnels (one in each direction), the only road tunnels on the island, and a 110 m tall, 550 m long bridge, at Petra Tou Romiou area. Some minor improvements have been made since completion, and many more are being planned. A new 31 km long highway, A7, is planned to link Paphos and Polis, a small municipality 33 km north. The A7 highway will be connected to the A6 hardly 5 km outside Paphos entrance. Τhis is the first motorway project in Cyprus, which is going to be performed through the Design, Build, Finance and Operate method (DBFO). A9 is a highway under construction which is planned to connect Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus, with the Troödos Mountains and is currently completed until the small village of Dhenia. The A22 (Dali industrial area to Anthoupolis, Lakatamia) is a future motorway planned to bypass the capital of Cyprus, Nicosia. This road is in the process of final plans.
2. Main Roads, Intercity roads with mostly one lane per direction, except sometimes in residential areas up to two lanes with the letter B being used in their official numbering system.
B type" roads can be also main avenues within the city limits.
3. Roads, indicated with the letter “E” and mostly connecting rural areas with one lane per direction and are always paved.
They are 3 digits long with the first digit being the serial number of the main road that the secondary road begins from and the last two digits being the serial number of the road.
4. Local roads, today completely paved using letter “F” and waiting for letter re-evaluation.
They are counted in the same way as "E" roads are.
5. Unclassified roads that can be "B" and "E" type.
These roads were constructed after the road network was numbered, so they do not have a serial number and will remain that way until the next road numbering evaluation.
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Motorways 272
Main or national roads 2219
Secondary or regional roads 2313
Other roads 5051
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Length of roads (km)
Figure 2 - Total length of the road network in Cyprus in 2015 by road type (Source: Statista)
The above bar chart shows the length of the road network in Cyprus at the end of 2015, by road type. There were 2.219 km of roads belonging to the “main or national road” classification in 201510.
5.5 Public Transport
Cyprus, being a relatively small island, does not have a well-developed public transport system. There are no railroads, underground metro system or domestic air connections, due to the fact that the greatest distance between towns in Cyprus is approximately 170 km (Ayia Napa - Paphos). Apart from walking and cycling, public transportation only consists of buses and taxis. There are four types of bus services in Cyprus:
Airport Transfer Buses operate between the island’s two airports of Larnaka and Paphos to each town. Interurban Buses link all major cities (Nicosia, Larnaka, Limassol and Paphos) on a daily basis, whereas on Sundays some long-distance routes are not carried out or the number of routes is reduced. Urban Buses travel daily between different parts of each major town. They have fixed routes and their services stop at approximately 18:00, while in certain areas they are extended until midnight.
10 https://www.statista.com
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Rural Buses run infrequently between small villages and the nearest towns, while today they are scarce because of the high percentage of car ownership among locals as well as low demand among tourists.
Taxi services are divided into three categories:
Interurban taxis are shared vehicles with a capacity of 4-8 people, providing cost effective transportation for customers. They connect all major towns (Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos, Paralimni and Ayia Napa). Urban taxis operate on a 24-hour basis in all towns and can be booked by phone or directly from the street. There are additional charges including public holidays supplement and a 20-40% increase for carrying more than 4 passengers. In addition, there is a night fare which is about 15% more expensive than the day fare and takes effect from 20:30 to 06:00. Rural taxis operate in villages and can be booked only at their base station. They are not equipped with taximeters and the rate is based on the kilometers travelled, the hour of the day, waiting time, single or return trip and luggage weight.
In 2006 large-scale plans were announced aimed to improve and expand the bus network and public transport in Cyprus and were implemented in 2010 with the financial support of the European Union Development Bank. http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/evaluation/pdf/evasltrat_tran/cyprus. pdf
5.6 Case study
Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus, is heavily dependent on motorized transport and highly focused on the private car and so is its urban transport policy, a fact that causes serious traffic problems. Cyprus has one of the highest car ownership levels worldwide (more than 600 cars per 1.000 inhabitants) and very low levels of sustainable means of transportation (share of public transport is only 3% and cycling 2%). The greater area suffers a continuous increase of air and noise pollution, a deterioration of life quality and the city’s attractiveness due to the intense traffic problems.
5.6.1 Integrated Mobility Master Plan for Nicosia The Government of Cyprus in cooperation with the local authorities and stakeholders developed the Integrated Mobility Master Plan (IMMP) for Nicosia with a view to mitigate this situation, by increasing the share of public transport (the share must be above 10% by year 2020), cycling and walking while upgrading and completing the road network. For these ambitious goals to be achieved, there are several measures related to all transportation modes that must be implemented. The IMMP aspires to raise the share of sustainable mobility by promoting the use of public transportation, cycling and walking as means of transport that have the best impact on the urban environment as well as by following a polycentric spatial development plan.
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5.6.2 Polycentric Nicosia The “Polycentric Nicosia” vision in order to be achieved needs excellent sustainable transportation supply conditions, able to compete with the private car, something that can be translated into:
The creation of a public transport network that delivers excellent and fast services; Provision of safe cycling infrastructure that will accommodate short and medium length trips; Pedestrianizations and traffic calming measures; Provide a balanced road space allocation: Give space to motorized transport while making sure that other modes of transport are well provided with appropriate infrastructure, by redistributing the available space supporting sustainable means of transport.
Two public transport network alternatives have been evaluated in the context of the IMMP, the basic characteristics11 of which are shown in the table below:
a radial network according to which the majority of bus lines will have one of their terminals in the centre of Nicosia (Solomou Square) and a multi-centre network i.e. a network of lines terminating in the centre of Nicosia and also at other peripheral centres of activities, namely in the area of the New Hospital, in the area of the Makarion Stadium, at Strovolos near the municipality building, in the area of the University of Cyprus and in the area of Intercollege.
MULTI-CENTRE PARAMETER RADIAL NETWORK NETWORK
Number of bus lines 31 35
Length of bus lines (km) 642 640
Daily number of bus trips 2.808 3.103
Area coverage (km2) 82,7 84,2
Number of bus stops 732 746
Hours of operation 05:30 – 23:00 05:30 – 23:00
11 For the two networks to be comparable, the area coverage, the average overall frequencies of service and the resulting bus fleet were practically equivalent. Both networks have been applied to the same road network.
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Table 13 - Basic characteristics of the defined public transport networks (Source: IMMP Final Report)
While developing the public transport network forms a necessity, there are also several other mobility aspects that have been looked into, such as:
i. Park and Ride
The multi-centre public transport network is the perfect precondition for the development of park and ride facilities, some of which will be located at the Makarion Stadium, near the junction of Strovolou ave. with Spyrou Kyprianou ave., near the junction of the A1 and Kalamon Street, at the new GSP Stadium and at Solomou square
ii. Introduction of trams
A three-line tram network has been proposed that will form a triangle connecting the four major centres of the area (Solomou square, the New Hospital, the Makarion Stadium and Strovolos areas).
Figure 4 - Proposed tram network (Source: IMMP Final Report)
Following the design of the tram network, both a cost – benefit analysis and a feasibility study were carried out, according to which the introduction of trams could be feasible and that the project should be carried out. Furthermore, the annual cost of trams’ operation is estimated at € 6,2 million12 and that the yearly number of passengers will be 33,7 million in
12 Including maintenance, personnel, electricity, water supply, cleaning, insurance and administrative costs.
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2020, increasing the share of the PT by 1,7% to a total of 12,3%. It is important to note that for the transfer of 200 passengers a tram would produce zero CO2 emissions, while the appropriate number of private cars and buses would produce 8.248 gr. and 945 gr. respectively. Trams are environmentally friendly means of transport and will also have a positive effect urban space, as their seating capacity equals to that of 2 large buses or 174 private cars.
iii. Road system enhancement
A number of road infrastructure projects is being recognized as important and feasible within the 2020 horizon of the IMMP.
iv. Organising / regulating parking
The IMMP recognises very well the need for a parking policy. A complete policy will be developed as a follow up of the IMMP.
v. Creating a comfortable and safe cycling network
According to the IMMP, the cycling network will be implemented in three phases to promote alternative ways of mobility.
5.6.3 Transport Management Authority Municipalities of the greater Nicosia area and the Government have agreed to establish a Transport Authority, in which the stakeholders involved will decide on all relevant transport planning issues, to achieve enhanced cooperation amongst all of them, thus making policy and decision making much more effective. This Transport Authority will closely cooperate with the Ministry of Communications and Works as well as with the Department of Town Planning and Housing of the Ministry of Interior. The Authority will be responsible for all levels of the major road network and public transport planning in the Greater Nicosia region, for monitoring the operation of the major road network and public transport system as well as for establishing measures for the improvement of the provided level of service. The Authority will also be responsible for setting up policies for pedestrian and cycling networks, setting up fare public transport policies and fares while monitoring and enforcing their implementation, for evaluating the connection of major traffic “generators” (supermarkets, shopping centres, parking spaces etc.) with the major road network and, in general, for a coordinated planning, designing, financing and implementing of the above in the region.
5.6.4 Streetscape Manual The implementation of the IMMP also required the completion of the Streetscape Manual for Nicosia, which serves as a set of requirements and guidelines used to design streets for all users, to provide support for the IMMP and integrate policies, programs and urban design guidelines for meeting the transportation needs of the community. To provide background
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documentation for the conclusion and production of manual, the project team involved a number of representatives such as:
1. National level: Departments of different ministries 2. Local level: Municipalities of the wider Nicosia area 3. Other state stakeholders: Traffic Section of the Police, Fire Service, Ambulance Service, Civil Defence, Cyprus Paraplygic Organisation 4. Academia: University of Cyprus, European University of Cyprus, University of Nicosia 5. Chambers and Associations: Commerce and Industry Chamber of Nicosia, Scientific Technical Chamber of Cyprus, Cyprus Tourism Organisation, Cyprus Consumers Association
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6 Refueling Station Assignment for C/LNG Vehicles in Cyprus
6.1 Review of available models for Refueling Station Assignment
The following section of the study offers a detailed overview of the existing models for refilling station assignment, based on literature approaches, in order to comprehend all the vital fundamentals behind this kind of decision-making problems.
6.1.1 Elements of refueling station location problems Refueling locations models consider two main elements of the approaches: location modeling including trip characteristics and refueling demand estimation. It is recognized that the major hurdle to the wide use of CNG and LNG vehicles is the lack of public refilling infrastructure as well as the high price of the vehicles themselves. Without adequate refueling infrastructure, people will not accept such means of transport. Conversely, adequate refilling infrastructure will not be built without sufficient refueling demand. Under these circumstances, the issue of how to provide an adequate level of refueling infrastructure becomes important. It has to be noted that this study uses the words “refuel” and “refill” interchangeably. The decision on refueling locations is significantly complex since there are various factors to take under consideration. First of all, as far as the vehicles’ technology is concerned, their characteristics (e.g. driving range, tank capacity and refueling time) play a major role when determining the number of refueling stations needed to be sited for long-distance trips. In addition, C/LNG vehicles with different operational characteristics, such as commercial vehicles like taxis or public buses, they need different strategies for locating refueling stations in order to minimize their operation time loss induced by frequent refilling, as well as eliminating the risk of running out of fuel while maintaining low-cost routes. Trip characteristics, such as travel distance, trip purpose and travel mode, need also to be considered for locating refueling stations. Longer travel distance requires more visits to refueling facilities although the frequency of the visit varies depending on the C/LNGVs’ driving range. Trip purpose (e.g. tourism, shopping and commute) is strongly related to the road users’ willingness to deviate to a refueling station off their pre-planned path. For example, it has been pointed out that drivers with commute purpose are less tolerant of changing their usual path to work, which is also probably the shortest one.
6.1.2 Approaches for location model The basic idea for determining refueling locations is to minimize the associated cost (i.e. extra travel time or distance to refueling locations) while maximizing the demand served, as implemented in general location problems. This implies that refilling facilities should be located in a manner that each weighted demand point (e.g. LNG truck) is allocated to its nearest facility, so that the sum of travel costs is minimized. Moreover, this kind of models should achieve maximum coverage within a stated service distance, given a limited number of facilities, therefore covering the largest amount of demand at the same time. Another approach could consider that refueling demand can be located at nodes representing, for example, home or workplace, giving less importance to paths between origin and destination points. Thus, the characteristics of the nodes, for example, their
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population size, number of jobs and penetration rate of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs), such as C/LNG vehicles, are vital elements for determining the location of refueling stations. In addition, one-dimensional point-based model and flow-based models should also be taken into account. These models consider two-dimensional flows, paths, or trips as refueling demand, intercepting as many trips as possible. Yet, the use of this model should be quite deliberate, since it allows flows to be captured by a single facility anywhere along their paths regardless of trip distance. Vehicles with a limited driving range need multiple stops for refueling when their trip distances exceed their driving range. For this reason, a flow is not regarded as captured, unless it is possible to travel from the origin to the destination and back, without running out of fuel. In this direction, additional refueling stations may be required along longer trips, so that the flow is regarded as well served, in terms of refueling. Furthermore, other models regard the minimization of delays in queues at the refueling facilities as first priority. This problem could be easily avoided at the early stage of C/LNG vehicles deployment, because of the insufficient initial demand and the theoretically unlimited station capacity. However, in the latter stage of the operation of refueling stations, it may be a decisive concern, due to the rise of CNG and LNG vehicles in the market of the study area, thus, requiring, for example, more pumps per station. A budget constraint is also often considered in various location problems. In some cases, the budget controls the size of the refueling station network. In particular, if the refueling station construction cost varies depending on location, the budget constraint has a significant impact on the decision to be made.
6.1.3 Refueling Demand Estimation Moreover, a reliable estimation of the present and the future refueling demand is required in order to create and calibrate the most appropriate model for the assignment of refueling stations across a region. First of all, understanding driver’s refueling behavior is the key point of refueling demand estimation. According to a study (Kitamura and Sperling, 1987), it was pointed out that most drivers prefer to refuel 5 minutes from their origin or destination and that they tend to refuel at the beginning of their trips, inferring that drivers tend to refuel before making trips to less familiar areas. An empirical study using a questionnaire-based survey was conducted to investigate refueling patterns by comparing drivers of gasoline and CNG vehicles (Kuby, Kelley, & Schoenemann, 2013). The survey found that CNG vehicle drivers fill their tanks and detour out of their way to refuel more frequently than gasoline vehicle drivers. Concerning the locations of refueling stations, the study concluded that refueling stations should be located on the way to destinations or to freeway entrances rather than places close to home, suggesting that flow-based optimal location models would be appropriate at the early stage of CNG and LNG vehicles deployment. As a consequence, it is suggested that it would be better for C/LNG refueling stations to be located along frequently travelled paths of drivers, such as home – work commute routes. It is also important to know at what tank level C/LNG vehicle drivers refuel since this could provide insights into determining the distribution of refueling stations. Kuby et al. (2013) found that CNG drivers tend to refuel with more fuel left in their tanks than gasoline vehicle drivers. It is plausible that the region with more potential C/LNG vehicle buyers requires more refueling stations, and thus estimating C/LNG vehicle ownership has been a critical step in the process of refueling demand identification. In some cases, C/LNG vehicle ownership is
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simply estimated by multiplying an assumed C/LNG vehicle penetration rate and the number of cars operated in the area. However, the penetration rate is likely to be influenced by numerous factors. Studies have shown that some socio-economic factors, such as education, income, gender, age and car ownership are related to the willingness to purchase or use environmentally friendly vehicles, including C/LNG vehicles. Generally, studies indicate that people with college education, middle- and high-income groups, and households with more than one car have a tendency to more easily accept C/LNG vehicles. Policy incentives can also affect the AFV ownership, which has been often reported in the literature. A survey conducted in Germany also demonstrated that such governmental incentives as vehicle tax exemptions, free parking and bus lane access, could boost C/LNG vehicle ownership (Hackbarth & Madlener, 2016). Considering policy incentives may be important for determining the locations of refueling stations when the policy actions are only limited to a specific area, for example, free or discounted downtown congestion charge for C/LNG vehicles. Refueling demand can be estimated in numerous ways. The most common approach is to use OD trips. However, constructing a flow-based model using OD trips is rather complicated and burdensome, since it requires network flow data, which are not always easy to obtain, especially when the network’s geographic coverage is wide. Specifically for a nationwide area of study, it would be quite difficult to use the method above. Consequently, since the OD trips of C/LNG vehicles may not be easily available, it has been simply assumed that the flow pattern of these vehicles follows that of general traffic, and thus a homogeneous adoption rate was applied regardless of geographic areas where the OD trips depart or arrive (Chung & Kwon, 2015). In this direction, a study conducted by Frick et al. (2007) assumed that CNG filling stations would have high refueling demand when they are located near the region with good network connections to/from other regions and high car density. Finally, the study related the refueling demand to station characteristics, such as whether it has a shop and which are the operating hours. 6.2 Cyprus: Case of Study and General Assumptions
This segment intends to identify all the necessary parameters and assumptions made for the proper assignment of refueling stations for CNG and LNG vehicles in our case of study, Cyprus. The results of the literature review of available models for refueling station assignment, combined with population data and transportation characteristics in Cyprus, form the basis of the proposed model.
6.2.1 Study Area and Population Cyprus, officially the Republic of Cyprus, is an island country in the Eastern Mediterranean and the third largest and most populous island in the Mediterranean, with the total area being estimated at 9251 km2. Since the Turkish military invasion of the Republic of Cyprus in 1974, the island remains divided into two individual sections, with the Turkish military troops capturing approximately the 36% of the total area. Note that this study, when referring to Cyprus, it always refers to the Cypriot Government (Greek area), officially known as the Republic of Cyprus. Moreover, the Republic of Cyprus is divided in five administrative districts: Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos and Famagusta. The area of study is demonstrated in the following Figure 3.
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Figure 3 – Map of Cyprus
In terms of population, the results of the three latest population censuses, conducted in Cyprus, are displayed in the following Table 14. Note that the relevant data are provided by the Statistical Service of Cyprus.
Table 14 - Cyprus Census Base Data used in the assignment model
Cyprus
Year 1992 2001 2011
Population 615.013 703.529 840.407 Source: CY National Statistics Agency
From the Table above, it is concluded that there was a total growth rate of 36,64% between the years 1992-2011, whereas the mean annual population growth rate is calculated approximately at 1,65%. Therefore, the current number of people living in the Republic of Cyprus is estimated at 942.413 (2018).
6.2.2 Reference Transportation System of Cyprus The first critical parameter for investigation is the reference transportation system of Cyprus. The last railway on the island was dismantled in 1952, and, therefore, the only remaining modes of transport are by road, by sea and by air. As a consequence, road transport comprises the dominant inland transportation method to ensure the proper delivery of any cargo, be it human or freight. It is worth mentioning that Cyprus has a very developed and dense road network with a density of 28 km per 1000 km2, which is almost 80% higher than
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the European Union average. Concerning the areas controlled by the Republic of Cyprus in 2006, 7,850 out of the 12,118 km were paved, while 4,268 km remain unpaved. The most significant road network on the island is the highway network, which connects the most significant districts and it is continuously developed.
6.2.3 Traffic Composition Since road transport is the prevailing transport mode on the island, it is mandatory to determine the category of vehicles which will be considered for the needs of this study, as well as all the appropriate assumptions related to their operation. Thus, the regarded vehicle types are the following: Private Passenger Cars, Taxis, Buses, Goods Conveyance Vehicles (Trucks) and Tractors. Mechanized cycles are not included in the referred composition, as it was pointed out that they comprise a negligible amount of the total fleet. Moreover, it is not obligatory to produce alternative fuel motorcycles in the near future, as the current environmental impact of their fuel emission is insignificant.
Private Passenger Cars
A passenger road vehicle is designed to carry passengers, as its name indicates. Included in this category are private cars, learners’ vehicles and invalid carriages. The developed economy of Cyprus, combined with the fact that public transport is limited to poor bus services and taxis, lead to a high-ranked value of private car ownership (PCO) in the country. As a consequence, Cyprus holds one of the highest private car ownership rates in the world, with 753 cars per 1000 people (PCO=0,753, 2017 estimation). In the frame of this study, it is assumed that passenger cars mostly operate on a daily basis, at the main districts and urban areas of Cyprus, with commuting as the main purpose of their trips.
Taxis
Taxis also constitute road vehicles, intended to carry passengers, but the main type of their use is commercial. Furthermore, the number and type of taxi routes (urban-interurban) varies, and it is highly dependent on their current location, as well as on the customers’ needs for transportation.
Buses
Buses are also regarded as commercial vehicles, intended to carry passengers for profit- making. The main difference between buses and taxis is the vehicle’s passenger capacity; i.e. the number of persons that can be seated. Thus, a bus is designed to carry more than 24 passengers, whereas a representative passenger car can carry up to five persons, including the driver. In the case study of Cyprus, buses are divided into two major categories: Public buses and Private buses. The essential distinction between public and private buses is that the first ones mostly travel in the limited area of a specific district or major city (e.g. Nicosia), while the second ones run in interurban paths, thus, connecting major cities and large-scale areas. According to data provided by the Statistical Service of
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the Republic of Cyprus, it is pointed out that public buses comprise the 70% of the total bus fleet, while private buses cover the remaining 30%.
Goods Conveyance Vehicles (Trucks)
A goods road vehicle is designed to carry goods from significant hubs (harbors) to the distribution centers and market places of major cities. Light goods road vehicles (light trucks), heavy goods road vehicles (heavy trucks) and road tractors are included in this category. The distinction between light and heavy trucks is made further to their gross weight, i.e. the first have a gross weight of maximum 3500kg, whereas the latter have a minimum weight of 3500kg. In any case, due to their size, cargo capacity and operational type, light trucks are assumed to make trips inside urban areas and cities, while heavy trucks are mostly considered for rural routes between major cities, thus, covering longer distances on a daily basis. In our case study, light trucks and heavy trucks are regarded as individual entities. Note that it is considered that light trucks comprise approximately the 82% of the total truck fleet, whereas heavy trucks cover the residual 18%, based on trucks registrations referring to the years 2009-2017.
Agricultural Tractors
For the purpose of this study, a tractor is considered an engineering vehicle specifically designed to deliver at a high tractive effort at slow speeds, for the purposes of hauling a trailer or machinery used in agriculture. Consequently, tractors are regarded to operate mostly in the rural road network.
Furthermore, for the purposes of this study, data upon the number of licensed vehicles in Cyprus for the year 2009, in addition to data concerning the number of new vehicle registrations concerning the subsequent years, were granted by the Public Works Department and the Statistical Service of the Republic of Cyprus. The following Table 15 demonstrates data upon licensed vehicles in Cyprus for the relevant year 2009, whereas Table 15 displays data concerning new registrations of motor vehicles by year and category of vehicle.
Table 15 - licensed vehicles in Cyprus for the relevant year 2009
Licensed vehicles Year 2009 Private Cars 450182 Taxis 1870 Public Buses 2414 Private Buses 1035
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Light Trucks 101760 Heavy Trucks 22337 Tractors 15887 Total 595485 (Source: CY Department for Transport, CY Public Works Department, CY Statistical Service, calculations by authors)
Table 16 - new registrations of motor vehicles by year and category of vehicle
CYPRUS: REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Private Cars 37351 32547 27810 20476 14722 17888 21394 27809 35889 Taxis 145 133 119 80 49 45 68 147 178 Public Buses 117 342 155 111 57 43 62 13 186 Private Buses 17 8 6 8 7 4 20 120 14 Light Trucks 5584 5832 4022 2218 1440 1692 1970 2775 3988 Heavy Trucks 1414 858 568 299 206 195 186 297 408 Tractors 360 397 308 149 151 179 144 69 132 Total 44988 40117 32988 23341 16632 20046 23844 31230 40795 (Source: CY Department for Transport, CY Public Works Department, CY Statistical Service, calculations by authors)
As a consequence, the annual number of licensed vehicles operating in Cyprus for the subsequent years (2010-2018) is calculated, making the simplification that the amount of withdrawn vehicles is negligible for the relevant years, due to market reasons. The subsequent Table 17 shows the number of licensed vehicles per category and year for the latest five years, founded on the data granted by the Public Works Department and the Statistical Service of the Republic of Cyprus. Note that the number of licensed vehicles concerning each year is related to the beginning of each year (01/01/20xx).
Table 17 - number of licensed vehicles per category and year for the latest five years
Number of licensed vehicles per category and year Vehicle Category 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Private Cars 583088 600976 622370 650179 686068 Taxis 2396 2441 2509 2656 2834 Public Buses 3196 3239 3301 3314 3500
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Private Buses 1081 1085 1105 1225 1239 Light Trucks 120856 122548 124518 127293 131281 Heavy Trucks 25682 25877 26063 26360 26768 Tractors 17252 17431 17575 17644 17776 Total 753551 773597 797441 828671 869466 (Source: CY Department for Transport, CY Public Works Department, CY Statistical Service, calculations by authors)
On the opposite, Table 18 demonstrates the growth rate of the number of licensed vehicles in Cyprus, referring to the years 2014-2018. Α crucial parameter is calculated for each vehicle category, i.e. the mean annual growth rate of the number of licensed vehicles.
Table 18 - Growth Rate of the number of licensed vehicles in Cyprus, 2014-2018
Growth Rate of Licensed Vehicles (%) Mean Annual Vehicle Category Growth Rate (%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Private Cars 2,59 3,07 3,56 4,47 5,52 3,84 Taxis 2,09 1,88 2,79 5,86 6,70 3,86 Public Buses 1,82 1,35 1,91 0,39 5,61 2,22 Private Buses 0,65 0,37 1,84 10,86 1,14 2,97 Light Trucks 1,21 1,40 1,61 2,23 3,13 1,91 Heavy Trucks 0,81 0,76 0,72 1,14 1,55 0,99 Tractors 0,88 1,04 0,83 0,39 0,75 0,78 Total 2,26 2,66 3,08 3,92 4,92 3,37 (Source: CY Department for Transport, CY Public Works Department, CY Statistical Service, calculations by authors)
According to the above considered vehicle categories, combined with data upon licensed vehicles in Cyprus, the annual traffic composition, concerning the latest 5 years, is depicted in Table 19.
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Table 19 - considered vehicle categories, combined with data upon licensed vehicles in Cyprus, the annual traffic composition 2014-2018
Traffic Composition (%) Vehicle Category 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Private Cars 77,4 77,7 78,0 78,5 78,9 Taxis 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 Public Buses 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 Private Buses 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 Light Trucks 16,0 15,8 15,6 15,4 15,1 Heavy Trucks 3,4 3,3 3,3 3,2 3,1 Tractors 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 Total 100 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 (Source: CY Department for Transport, CY Public Works Department, CY Statistical Service, calculations by authors)
6.2.4 Average Annual Vehicle Mileage
The average annual vehicle mileage is a parameter of how many kilometers in average a vehicle runs annually. This parameter varies depending on many factors, such as the characteristics of the vehicle (size, weight, fuel and age), the vehicle owner (sex, age, income and status), as well as the use of the vehicle (private or company car, urban or non- urban areas). For instance, old cars have a much lower annual mileage than newer cars and diesel cars have a higher mileage than gasoline cars. Consequently, the mileage between different vehicles in a fuel category can vary a lot. Nevertheless, there is currently no data on the average annual vehicle mileage for Cyprus. Therefore, for this study it is assumed that the same mileage is valid for all types of vehicles (diesel, gasoline, C/LNG- powered vehicles) in the same vehicle category: private passenger car, private bus, public bus, trucks and tractors. This is seen as a realistic hypothesis and it is based on the rational that the newly inserted alternative fuel vehicles in the market of Cyprus follow the pattern of the general traffic. In addition, the assumed average annual mileage is in line with the assumptions made for each vehicle trip, in the articles above. However, it is strongly related to the country. Cyprus is an island, where the average freight journey is shorter than in other countries. Table 20 below demonstrates the assumed average annual vehicle mileage travelled allocated to each vehicle category.
Table 20 - assumed average annual vehicle mileage travelled allocated to each vehicle category
Average Annual Mileage Vehicle Category (km)
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Private Passenger Car 13000 Taxis 52000 Public Bus 50000 Private Bus 40000 Light Truck 13000 Heavy Truck 40000 Agricultural Tractor 10000
6.3 Model Selection
This chapter describes the rationale behind the model selection for each of the two scenarios that are defined below.
6.3.1 Basic Scenario
As a Member State of the European Union (EU), Cyprus has to reach the targets described in the Renewable Energy Directive. Thus, the country must achieve at least 10% of renewable energy in road transportation by 2020. The most significant means for reaching the target is to increase the utilization of bio-fuels and electricity in the road transportation. Currently, Cyprus is strongly dependent on the use of diesel and gasoline. Only a minor share of the transportation service is provided with renewable energy by the utilization of hybrid electric vehicles and a blend of biodiesel into diesel. Therefore, the year of study for the basic scenario is defined as 2020. The basic assumption for this scenario is that CNG and LNG vehicle purchases are estimated at the 10% of the overall new vehicle registrations, for the year of reference.
Table 21 demonstrates the initial number of CNG and LNG vehicles per vehicle category, at the first year of their deployment in the market of Cyprus, in addition to the estimated number of total vehicle purchases for the year of reference. Note that the number of total vehicle purchases for the current year of study is calculated, with the use of the mean annual growth rate for each vehicle category.
Table 21 - initial number of CNG and LNG vehicles per vehicle category (Base Assumptions)
Year of Study: 2020 CNG & LNG Total Vehicle Category Vehicle Vehicle Purchases Purchases Private Cars 1110 11097 Taxis 12 118
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Year of Study: 2020 CNG & LNG Total Vehicle Category Vehicle Vehicle Purchases Purchases Public Buses 8 81 Private Buses 4 39 Light Trucks 261 2611 Heavy Trucks 27 272 Tractors 14 140 Total 1436 14358
As it is pointed out in the following Table 22, at the end of the current year of study, 2020, the total number of C/LNG vehicles comprises only the 0,15 % of the total vehicle fleet, which is a quite small proportion.
Table 22 - C/LNG vehicles composition 2020
Year of Study: 2020 (End of the Year) CNG & LNG vehicles 1.436 Licensed Vehicles 943.887 CNG & LNG Vehicles / Licensed Vehicles (%) 0,15
Therefore, it is considered that the demand for refueling stations is limited only at the main urban areas and it is suggested that one refilling station is located at each of the five major cities of Cyprus, in order to cover the initial refueling demand. According to population data (over 15.000 citizens), these cities are the following: Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos and Paralimni. Note that the above mentioned cities are regarded as the representative municipalities for each one of the five administrative districts of Cyprus (Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos and Famagusta). The distribution of the C/LNG refilling stations is demonstrated in Table 23.
Table 23 - Distribution of the C/LNG refilling stations (2020)
Year of Study: 2020
Estimated Municipality Number of Gas Stations Population
Nicosia 63744 1
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Year of Study: 2020
Estimated Municipality Number of Gas Stations Population
Limassol 117027 1 Larnaca 59341 1 Paphos 38112 1 Paralimni 17337 1
6.3.2 Future Demand Scenario
The second scenario under examination is the Future Demand Scenario, which intends to investigate the further demand for CNG and LNG in the future and more specifically, for the year 2040. According to the estimated demand for C/LNG fuel, proper measures are suggested, in order to cover the demand. Scenario Assumptions
This part of the study describes the basic assumptions made for the examined scenario, in order to estimate the future fuel demand.
First of all, the penetration rate of C/LNG vehicles in the market of Cyprus is estimated for each individual vehicle category. The rationale behind this evaluation is that owners of vehicles categories with higher average annual mileage are in great need of reducing their operational cost. Consequently, the penetration rate of C/LNG vehicles for each category of vehicles is singular and is depicted in Table 24.
Table 24 - Penetration rate of C/LNG vehicles for each category
CNG & LNG Vehicles
Vehicle Penetration Category Rate (%)
Private Cars 12 Taxis 15 Public Buses 15 Private Buses 14 Light Trucks 12 Heavy Trucks 14 Tractors 10
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Under this consideration, the total number of licensed C/LNG vehicles per vehicle category for the year of interest is calculated and demonstrated in Table 25 below.
Table 25 - Total number of licensed C/LNG vehicles per vehicle category (2040)
Year of Study: 2040
Vehicle CNG & LNG Category Vehicles
Private Cars 79955 Taxis 1210 Public Buses 830 Private Buses 356 Light Trucks 18815 Heavy Trucks 2472 Tractors 804 Total 104442
Moreover, considering the total number of licensed vehicles in Cyprus for the year of reference, which is calculated based on the mean annual growth rate for each vehicle category, as demonstrated in a previous chapter, Table 26 shows the total number of operated vehicles on the island of Cyprus. Note that for private passenger cars, it was assumed that the relevant mean annual growth rate is decreased from 3,84% to 1,5%, concerning the years 2021-2040. This assumption is made due to the fact that in a long- term period of 20 years, a significant proportion of the private cars is withdrawn from the market and the general traffic because private passenger car holders tend to renew their fleet during that period.
Table 26 – Total number of operated vehicles (2040)
Year of Study: 2040
Vehicle Licensed Category Vehicles
Private Cars 996386 Taxis 6524 Public Buses 5669 Private Buses 2361 Light Trucks 199268
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Heavy Trucks 33281 Tractors 21078 Total 1264567
From the available data above, it is concluded that the C/LNG vehicle proportion of the total vehicle fleet for the year of study, is approximately at 8,3 %, as it is shown in Table 27.
Table 27 - C/LNG vehicle distribution as number of the total vehicle fleet (CY, 2040)
Year of Study: 2040 CNG & LNG vehicles 104.442 Licensed Vehicles 1.264.567 CNG & LNG Vehicles / Licensed Vehicles (%) 8,3
6.4 Refueling Stations Assignment
As described in section 5.1 of this study, there is a variety of models determining the required number and location of C/LNG refueling stations across an area, each considering different parameters. However, real-world location problems are complicated decision problems and, therefore, the proposed model should reach multiple objectives simultaneously. Finally, the procedure followed for the proper assignment of C/LNG refueling stations across the area of study was based upon point and area-based location models.
Point-based Model
First of all, all the potential interurban routes were defined, regarding the major cities of Cyprus (Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos and Paralimni) as origin and destination points. In order to cover the required C/LNG fuel demand for making any of the relevant trips, it is strongly recommended that one C/LNG refueling station for each traffic flow direction should be located at each entrance/exit intersection of the above mentioned cities. Note that there is no requirement to locate any refueling station along any path between the above mentioned municipalities, as the relative distances between two consecutive cities are considered quite small (less than 100 km), and a vehicle would not run out of fuel before reaching its destination. This statement is also validated by the fact that users of alternative fuel vehicles, such as CNG and LNG vehicles, tend to refuel more frequently, relatively to gasoline vehicle users, and at the beginning of their journey, as relevant studies have demonstrated. Table 28represents the distance matrix between the five main cities of Cyprus, confirming the evaluation about the maximum distance between two consecutive municipalities.
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Table 28 - Distance matrix between the five main cities of Cyprus
Distance Between Major Cities of Cyprus (km) City Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Paphos Paralimni Nicosia 85 55 154 89 Limassol 85 71 67 115 Larnaca 55 71 134 52 Paphos 154 67 134 181 Paralimni 89 115 52 181 Source: ARCGIS, Google Maps, Open Maps and own calculations
Furthermore, it is suggested that a refueling station should be placed at the entrance/exit intersection of Polis town, in the north-west end of the island, in order to help achieve the complete spatial coverage of the total road network on the island.
Moreover, refueling facilities should be placed closely to vantage points and strategical locations, such as industrial zones. This approximation is not dependent on traffic volume data or high population density areas, but helps cover the needs of a significant part of the total fleet, goods conveyance vehicles, as well as the financial growth of the transport enterprises which will invest in alternative fuel vehicles. In addition, implementing the above mentioned suggestion could eliminate delays from waiting in the que of urban gas refilling facilities in the long-term future, when the demand for CNG and LNG fuel will be essentially higher. Currently, the most developed industrial zones on the island are located in the districts of Limassol and Paphos.
Additionally, there must be a proper prediction about hubs of transportation interest, such as airports. Airports comprise critical nodes which generate/attract trips to/from adjacent spatial zones. Therefore, it is recommended that at least one re-supplying station is allocated closely to each single port. This policy could be proven quite useful particularly for commercial vehicles, e.g. taxis, private or public buses and trucks, in the attempt to carry cargo without wasting severe operational time, because of frequent refilling during routes. Currently, the operating airports on the island are Larnaca International Airport, located 4km southwest of Larnaca, as well as Paphos International Airport, which is sited 6.5 km southeast of the city of Paphos. The location of the two airports is demonstrated in Figure 4.
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Figure 4 – Main Airport Locations in Cyprus
In consequence of the point-based approach, a separate policy towards public buses is recommended. As it has already been demonstrated in previous parts of this study, public buses mostly execute urban trips. Consequently, in order to raise and maintain the provided level of service at high rates, it is suggested that one refueling pump/station should be sited at the existent bus depots.
Flow-based Model
In addition, considering a flow-based approach, it is highly endorsed that refilling stations should be placed at freeway entrances and exits. This recommendation leads to the coverage of the largest amount of refueling demand across the most frequently travelled paths of drivers. The consideration above is founded on the assumption that the flow pattern of these vehicles follows that of general traffic. The main Cyprus highways are the following: A1 (Nicosia-Limassol), A2 (Nisou-Larnaca), A3 (Larnaca-Protaras), A5 (Larnaca-Kofinou), A6 (Limassol-Paphos) and A9 (Nicosia-Akaki). Figure 5 below demonstrates the motorway network of Cyprus, including the current network, as well as the network under study and construction.
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Figure 5 - The motorway network of Cyprus (source: Department of Public Works)
Area-based Model
In addition to the point-based approximation, it is mandatory that an area-based model is used to determine the required number of gas stations per district in order to meet the overall CNG and LNG fuel demand. Issues involved in the overall fuel demand play an important role in determining the required space and number of fuel stations. The demand function of fuel consumption is as follows:
D = F(C,N,A,P,I)
In this equation, C = Cost of fuel; N = Number of vehicles; A = Average service life of vehicle; P = Average Population per area; I = Society Income. For the conduction of this study, it was considered that the most severe factors influencing the gas demand, are the number of vehicles travelling in a limited area, the average population per region, as well as the average society income, which is highly dependent on the number of existing jobs in the area of study. Nevertheless, due to lack of sufficient data, the estimation of the final number of gas stations required for each one of the five Cypriot districts was founded on population data.
For the purposes of this study, the five major administrative districts of Cyprus were taken into account: Nicosia, Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos and Famagusta. According to the three latest population censuses of the Republic of Cyprus, carried out by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Cyprus, concerning the years 1992, 2001 and 2011, Table 29 demonstrates the population distribution per district, concerning the year of interest, 2040. An average annual population growth rate of 1.65% was calculated and considered in order to estimate
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the population of each area, for the upcoming years after 2011 and more specifically for the year of study, 2040.
Table 29 - Population distribution per district
Year of Study: 2040
District Population
Nicosia 525.576 Limassol 378.100 Larnaca 230.162 Paphos 141.892 Famagusta 75.110 TOTAL 1.350.840
In developed countries, such as Cyprus, the world standard considers that each fuel pump should give service to at least 5,000 people. Nevertheless, this consideration takes into account mostly gasoline and diesel powered vehicles, which comprise the majority of the total vehicle fleet. In our case study, it was estimated that CNG and LNG vehicles comprise approximately the 8,3 % of the total operated vehicle fleet and, thus, it is considered that one fuel pump could serve at least 25,000 people. Considering the rationale mentioned above and assuming one C/LNG fuel pump in one station, the required number of gas stations per district for the year 2040 is depicted in the following Table 30. Note that the proposed number of refilling stations per district includes the additional gas stations required at vantage points, as they have already been defined above.
Table 30 - Number of gas stations per district (year: 2040): Model proposal
Year of Study: 2040
Number of Gas District Population Stations
Nicosia 525.576 26 Limassol 378.100 21 Larnaca 230.162 14 Paphos 141.892 12 Famagusta 75.110 4 TOTAL 1.350.840 77
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Vehicle Kilometers Travelled
Vehicle kilometers traveled is the total kilometers travelled by motor vehicles on the road network in a limited area during a given period of time. Vehicle kilometre is a unit used as a measure of traffic flow and it is an important variable in the transportation systems analysis. Thus, it is determined by multiplying the total number of the operated vehicles in an area by the average length of their trips. Since direct measurement of vehicle kilometers traveled has never been made in Cyprus, the available information consists of indirect evaluations, based on a set of assumptions, such as the ones described in previous parts of this study, in order to estimate the future number of operated C/LNG vehicles on the island, as well as the average annual mileage for each vehicle category. Table 31 demonstrates the evaluated number of vehicle kilometers traveled by each C/LNG vehicle category, as well as the aggregate amount of vehicle kilometers traveled for the target year 2040.
Table 31 - Number of vehicle kilometers traveled by each C/LNG vehicle category
Year of Study: 2040
C/LNG Average Annual Vehicle Kilometers Vehicle Category Vehicles Mileage (km) Travelled
Private Cars 79.955 13.000 1.039.400.000 Taxis 1.210 52.000 62.900.000 Public Buses 830 50.000 41.500.000 Private Buses 356 40.000 14.200.000 Light Trucks 18.815 13.000 244.600.000 Heavy Trucks 2.472 40.000 98.900.000 Tractors 804 10.000 8.000.000 Total 104.442 1.509.500.000
Historically, the importance of vehicle kilometers travelled accumulation has been directed toward highway planning, and included areas such as traffic density, highway safety, as well as other non-energy-related areas. Unfortunately, currently, there is no reliable methodology linking the available estimated data with the proper evaluation of fuel efficiency, consumption and demand. Therefore, vehicle kilometre is a variable that cannot be used for determining the required number of gas refilling stations in an area. Nevertheless, Table 32 below shows the estimated number of vehicle kilometers traveled
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by each vehicle category of the general vehicle fleet, whereas Table 33 demonstrates the association between the C/LNG vehicle kilometers and the total vehicle kilometers made in the year of reference, only for statistical comparison reasons.
Table 32 - Estimated number of vehicle kilometers traveled by each vehicle category
Year of Study: 2040
Licensed Average Annual Mileage Vehicle Kilometers Vehicle Category Vehicles (km) Travelled
Private Cars 996.386 13000 12.953.000.000 Taxis 6.524 52000 339.200.000 Public Buses 5.669 50000 283.500.000 Private Buses 2.361 40000 94.400.000 Light Trucks 199.268 13000 2.590.500.000 Heavy Trucks 33.281 40000 1.331.300.000 Tractors 21.078 10000 210.800.000 Total 1.264.567 17.802.700.000
Table 33 - Association between the C/LNG vehicle kilometers and the total vehicle kilometers
Year of Study: 2040 C/LNG Vehicle Kilometers Travelled 1.509.500.000 Total Vehicle Kilometers Travelled 17.802.700.000 C/LNG VKMs / Total VKMs Ratio (%) 8,48
As expected, the C/LNG Veh-Kms / Total VKMs Ratio (8,48 %) is similar to the ratio of C/LNG vehicles / Licensed Vehicles (8,30 %).
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