WINNING IN AFGHANISTAN: CREATING EFFECTIVE AFGHAN SECURITY FORCES Publication Draft: Revised March 11, 2008 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, With the assistance of David Kasten and Adam Mausner
[email protected] Cordesman, WinninG in AfGhanistan: CreatinG an Effective Partner 3/11/09 PaGe ii Executive Summary: There is no one solution to winning the AfGhanPakistan War. The war is an ideological, civil, military and economic conflict that now affects two very different nations: AfGhanistan and Pakistan. Success requires a broad strateGy that inteGrates the civil and military dimensions of the war into sustainable efforts that take account of the real world conditions in both countries. No mix of military victories at the tactical level can by themselves defeat an ideological enemy, or brinG AfGhanistan and Pakistan security and stability. The Taliban, Hekmatyer, and Haqqani networks, and Al Qa’ida, must be defeated at the local, regional, and national level by a combination of ideological, political, economic, and military means. No victory can come without improved Governance and Government services, or active successful aid and development efforts in the areas where the war is being fouGht. There is a critical need for better and more honest AfGhan and Pakistani Governance, for a meaningful rule of law, for economic security and development, for more civilian aid workers and funds, and far more coherence in international efforts to make this possible. At the same time, the AfGhan Government, US, and NATO/ISAF, and Paksitani Government face a steadily GrowinG and more effective security threat. Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified to Congress on September 10th, 2008 that, “I’m not convinced we’re winning it in Afghanistan.”i Other military experts, like General Jim Jones, the new National Security Advisor have been more blunt: “Make no mistake, NATO is not winning in Afghanistan.” The steady deterioration of the situation is now clear from US, NATO/ISAF, and UN reportinG.