Gary Langer Langer Research Associates [email protected]

Project summary  Broadcasting Board of Governors survey  Field work: D3 Systems/Yemen Polling Center  Design/Analysis: D3/Langer Research Associates  National, area‐probability sample  1,112 face‐to‐face interviews Dec. 9‐29, 2010  59 native Arabic‐speaking interviewers, 10 field supervisors  Avg. 52‐minute interview; 99 substantive questions, 21 demographics, 28 QC‐management  MOE +/‐3 points at 95% confidence level Presentation summary  Yemenis’ evaluations of national institutions and local conditions  Preferences for governance  Relevant personal characteristics, interests and information  Indices of disaffection and engagement  Aimed at understanding of key elements of public sentiment in Yemen – essential for effective engagement/communication A few basics  73% have monthly HH income <60K riyals (<$280)  59% no more than intermediate school education; includes 37% w/ no formal education  29% illiterate  62% of men are unemployed (38%) or self‐employed (24%)  35% have no power line electricity, inc. half w/ generator access, half with no power whatsoever  Pop. is 71% rural  84% reside in North Yemen  Attitudinally… Performance Ratings Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Performance Ratings Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Performance Ratings Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Men More Negative (DKs percentaged out)

Men Women Pos-Neg Pos-Neg Central gov’t 50-50 0 57-43 +14 District gov’t 35-65 -30 43-57 -14 Police 47-53 -6 64-36 +28 Army 68-32 +48 70-30 +40 Saleh Favorability Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Saleh Favorability by Region Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Life a year from now... Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Negative groups  Men:  52% “wrong direction” vs. 28% among women; “right direction” 34% vs. 44%.  “Life worse” 23% among men, 14% among women.  Elders:  “Life better” 38% among 50+ vs. 53% among <25. (Similar by sex.)  “Right direction” 43% among younger men vs. 30% among men 50+.  South Yemen:  “Wrong track” 69% vs. 35% in the North; “life better” 38% vs. 50%. Effect of Complaining About a Gov’t Official Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Ratings of Local Conditions Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Preferred Form of Government Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Preference for Democracy by Groups Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Gov’t Follow Islamic Principles Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

83%

Very

Somewhat

6% Follow Islamic Principles - Groups Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors 88%

78% 72% Religiosity Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Influences on Opinions Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Interest/Information Levels Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Interest/Info., Younger/Older Men Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Influences on Opinions Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

85%

65%

34% 32% 25% 23% Disaffection Index Engagement Index  Combination of (α=.85):  Combination of (α=.94):  Ratings of the work of: central  Interest in/informed about: gov’t, district gov’t, police, governorate events, Yemen army events, world events, Arab  Favorability ratings of: gov’t in country policies, U.S. policies, general, parliament, Saleh Yemen culture, Arab culture, Western culture  Satisfaction with progress toward system of rules  Interest in news about: Yemen, Arab, Europe, U.S.  Effect of complaining about a gov’t official  Variables recoded, inc. intensity,  Variables recoded, inc. intensity, and standardized so that higher and standardized so that higher scores = greater engagement. scores = more disaffection  Had to answer at least 8 of the 20  Had to answer at least 5 of the 9 questions in order to get a score. questions to get a score Disaffection and Engagement Indices Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors

Disaffection: Young men/older men n.s.; men/women < .001. Engagement: Young men/older men marginally sig.; men/women < .001. Disaffection/Engagement - Region Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Disaffection/Engagement: Urban/Rural Source: Broadcasting Board of Governors Disaffection Index Engagement Index

 Low disaffection (0‐2 Qs neg.)  Low engagement (0‐5 Qs pos.)  All 57%  All 55%  Men 47%  Men 39%  Women 67%  Women 71%

 Moderate disaffection (3‐5 neg.)  Moderate engagement (6‐13 pos.)  All 23%  All 34%  Men 24%  Men 42%  Women 22%  Women 25%

 High disaffection (6‐9 neg.)  High engagement (14‐20 pos.)  All 20%  All 11%  Men 29%  Men 19%  Women 11%  Women 4% Take‐aways  Significant levels of disaffection, skepticism of gov’t  Broad, deep economic discontent, development needs  Majority support for democracy, higher among men – guided by strict Islamic principles  Inward‐looking society, low info./interest beyond local  Broad, deeply suspicions of the United States  Family, friends, associates and religious leaders are the prime levers of influence  Any approach should be Yemen‐centric

Afghanistan surveys (ABC/media partners)  National, area‐probability samples  Random selection, in‐person interviews  Six in a series:  Oct. 29‐Nov. 13, 2010  Dec. 11‐23, 2009  Dec. 30, 2008‐Jan. 12, 2009  Oct. 28‐Nov. 7, 2007  Oct. 14‐19, 2006  Oct. 8‐18, 2005  Consistent methodology/reliable time trend Latest:

 Sponsors: ABC News//BBC/ARD/Washington Post  Field work: ACSOR, subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc.

 Methodology: 227 random sampling points, stratified urban/rural, PPS to district, SRS at settlement level.  Provincial oversamples: Balkh, Bamiyan, Farah, Ghazni, Ghor, Helmand, Kandahar, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Nimroz, Nuristan, Paktia, Panjshir and Wardak.  Field: Area probability, random route, Kish grid. 209 Afghan interviewers, 98/111 m/f, 28% supervised or back‐checked, logical controls in DP. Specs., cont.

 Noncoverage: 59 of country’s 398 districts were inaccessible for security reasons; 75 inaccessible to women interviewers. Noncoverage = 10% of men, 21% of women.

 Replacements: 18 of 116 randomly drawn districts were inaccessible (15 security, 2 weather, 1 transportation); replaced by random draw.

 Weighted to population of province and sex by region using CSO population projections.  Average 36‐minute interview. Contact rate 86 percent, co‐ operation rate 94 percent, net RR 81 percent, MOE 3.5 points inc. DEFF of 2.2. Panjshir (ACSOR photo) Nimroz (ACSOR photo) Kunar (ACSOR photo) Kunduz (ACSOR photo) Paktia (ACSOR photo) Herat (ACSOR photo) Takhar (ACSOR photo) Laghman (ACSOR photo) Nuristan (ACSOR photo) Objective Hazard #1

Parwan (ACSOR photo) (ACSOR photo)  Baghlan …tankers were put to fire by Taliban, and one American armored vehicle was destroyed by Taliban rocket attack.

 Faryab …One suicide attack took place in Khwaja Sabz Posh District which killed and injured lots of people

 Ghor …The passengers including our interviewers were robbed of money by robbers on the road to one of Ghor districts.

 Jawzjan…During our survey a fight between security police and Taliban took place, the fight continued for four hours.

 Wardak …Taliban militants took with them a person on charges of being Arbaki and was sentenced to heavy castigation.

 Nimroz …We witnessed rocket attacks on the second day of our work from Taliban on Nimroz airport.

 Nuristan …Taliban insurgents blazed and set afire to a girls’ school in Mandool district and demolished the entire school building. Objective Hazard #2

(ACSOR photo)  Baghlan …the road in Salang was not in good condition, it was snowing and cars had crashed and fell down from the mountains… one car crashed with a big tanker in this accident all passengers in the small car were killed.

 Jawzjan …While going to the province the car I was traveling in crashed with another car, in the accident the two men from opposite side were killed and two were badly injured.

 Nuristan …landslide on the main highway had caused blockade of the way.

 Kapisa …The flood destroyed the road to Nijrab district.

 Wardak …On Sayed Abad highway in Dasht Toob area, a mini car made an accident with a giant vehicle where three people lost their lives.

 Laghman …Armed insurgents are active in Alingar district where travel is an enormous issue. Interviewer instruction: Note transportation issues (car trouble, car accidents, etc.) Panjshir supervisor: “1. Lack of mini buses. “2. High prices of fuel, and road fares. “3. Anarchy.” Overview of Recent Trend  December 2009: Sharp improvements, public views buoyed by political, economic and military efforts.  Election resolved peaceably, with promises/paybacks  Improved delivery of development aid  Promised U.S. surge/commitment  Perceived Taliban setbacks  Reduced USAF‐attributed civilian casualties  November 2010: Retrenchment given unmet expectations. Views of the U.S. and its efforts match previous lows or set new ones.  Where the surge has focused, views have improved (from low levels)  Improvements there more than offset elsewhere, where instability or economic difficulties have grown and USAF presence is lacking  Whack‐a‐mole: Taliban activity on the rise outside USAF focus areas External validation  March 10, 2011: Kunduz police chief killed by suicide bomber “while he was walking on the street to show how secure Kunduz has become after recent military operations.” Several bodyguards seriously injured.

 “Strong Taliban presence in this area,” Kunduz results:  December 2009: 4%  November 2010: 28% Views of the U.S. Effort

Support U.S. Better life presence in a year

Taliban grown stronger 58% 58%

Taliban grown weaker 67% 76%

Taliban very active in area 52% 52%

Taliban not active in area 69% 70%

Coalition bombing in area 49% 59%

No bombing in area 68% 69%

Civilian casualties in the area 53% 61%

No civilian casualties 68% 68%

Violence in the area 59% 62%

Regions of Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll First the good news Attitudes Towards the U.S. in Helmand ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

+24 pts

+24 pts

+18 pts

+15 pts

+12 pts The Taliban in Helmand ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

-46 pts

-16 pts

-15 pts

-13 pts

-11 pts Positive Ratings of Living Conditions in Helmand ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

+53 pts

+45 pts

+45 pts

+35 pts

+27 pts

+24 pts Attitudes Towards the U.S. in Kandahar ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

+24 pts

+22 pts

+27 pts

+17 pts

+20 pts The Taliban in Kandahar ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

-17 pts

But... +9 pts

+16 pts

+17 pts

+20 pts Whack‐a‐mole

•Taliban has been squeezed out of Helmand/Kandahar into other regions of the country.

•Increased reports of violence / Taliban activities • Development projects have slowed in areas outside of the focus of the surge.

•Decline in living conditions

•Deteriorating economic conditions

Living Conditions – Province/Region

(ACSOR photo)

Region‐Level Change in Ratings of Local Conditions Year‐to‐year change in average number of positive ratings of local conditions

Note. Region Level Ns range from 60 to 511 (Helmand N = 200). All changes indicated are statistically significant at p < .05. Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in Northwest Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

-25 pts

-20 pts

-20 pts

-11 pts

-8 pts

-7 pts Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in North Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

-27 pts

-24 pts

-24 pts

-23 pts

-14 pts

-12 pts Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in Central Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

-28 pts

-28 pts

-20 pts

-18 pts

-16 pts

-14 pts Biggest Drops in Positive Ratings of Local Conditions in East Afghanistan ABC News/BBC/ARD/Washington Post poll

-31 pts

-30 pts

-18 pts

-18 pts

-15 pts

-14 pts Predicting support for U.S. presence  R2 = .279  Significant predictors:  Blame U.S./NATO for civilian casualties (‐)  Blame Taliban for violence (+)  Civilian deaths in the area (‐)  Optimism that life will be better in a year (+)  Ethnicity: Pashtun (‐)  Local conditions (+)  Foreign aid (+)  Development efforts (+)

Gary Langer Langer Research Associates [email protected]