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Water Availability and Demand Analysis in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

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Water Availability and Demand Analysis in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung Water availability and demand analysis in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan Inaugural-Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades Doktor der Ingenieurwissenschaften (Dr.-Ing.) der Landwirtschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn von Fazlullah Akhtar aus Kunduz, Afghanistan Bonn 2017 1. Referent: Prof. Dr. -Ing. Janos J. Bogardi 2. Koreferent: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jürgen Kusche Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 03.07.2017 Angefertigt mit Genehmigung der Landwirtschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bonn FOR MY PARENTS AND FAMILY! whose utmost support and prayers are always with me "And your Lord has commanded that you shall not serve (any) but Him, and goodness to your parents. If either or both of them reach old age with you, say not to them (so much as) "Uff" nor chide them, and speak to them a generous word." [Quran 17:23-24] LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1:‎ River Basin map of Afghanistan -------------------------------------------------------- 2 Figure 1.2:‎ Shares of non-arable and arable land in Afghanistan; based on World Bank data (World Bank, 2016)----------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Figure 2.1‎ Location of the study area and stream/river network -------------------------- 27 Figure 2.2:‎ Climatograph of the central upstream of the Kabul River Basin ------------- 29 Figure 2.3:‎ Climatograph of the downstream of the Kabul River basin ------------------- 30 Figure 2.4:‎ Hydrographic and elevation map of the Kabul River Basin -------------------- 32 Figure 2.5:‎ Schematic structure of the water resources management of the river basins of Afghanistan (Source: Kakar, 2011) ----------------------------------------------- 33 Figure 3.1‎ Methodological framework for land use and land cover mapping of the Kabul River Basin ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 40 Figure 3.2:‎ Cropping calendar of the Kabul River Basin --------------------------------------- 47 Figure 3.3:‎ Comparison of the trend of mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index- of wheat crop at provincial level with that of Kabul River Basin (KRB) level ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48 Figure 3.4:‎ Comparison of trend of mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of maize crop at provincial level with that of Kabul River Basin (KRB) --------- 49 Figure 3.5:‎ Phenology based NDVI time-series of crop growth stages during wheat- maize crop rotation at the downstream KRB: (a) germination/initial stage (b) mid-season, the period between (a) to (b) is the crop development stage, (c) late season or harvesting of wheat and plantation of maize and rice, (d) mid-season of maize and rice and (e) late season or harvesting of maize; the same cycle is being followed in the following year as well ------ 50 Figure 3.6:‎ Comparison of the trend of mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of barley crop at provincial level with that of Kabul River Basin (KRB) level ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 Figure 3.7:‎ Comparison of the trend of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of rice crop at provincial level with that of Kabul River Basin (KRB) level ----------- 51 Figure 3.8:‎ Categorization of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of vegetated and non-vegetated areas in the Kabul River Basin ------------------------------ 52 Figure 3.9:‎ Temporal variations of the land use and land cover in Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 53 Figure 3.10:‎ Areal extent of LULC types in the Kabul River Basin --------------------------- 55 Figure 3.11:‎ Inter-annual variability of wheat coverage in different provinces of Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 57 Figure 3.12:‎ Inter-annual variability of barley coverage in different provinces of Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 58 Figure 3.13:‎ Inter-annual variability of maize coverage in different provinces of Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 59 Figure 3.14:‎ Inter-annual variability of rice coverage in different provinces of Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 60 Figure 3.15:‎ Mean classification accuracy of individual land cover classes 2003-2013 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62 Figure 3.16:‎ Comparison of the MODIS NDVI derived agricultural area and SPOT 4 derived land cover of 2010 (LC Atlas 2010, source: FAO, 2012) -------------- 67 Figure 3.17:‎ Elevation (m) map of Kabul River Basin ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 68 Figure 3.18:‎ Relationship between elevation (m) and NDVI of the Kabul River Basin ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 69 Figure 3.19:‎ Elevation map of the individual land-cover in the Kabul River Basin (KRB) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 70 Figure 3.20:‎ Normalized Difference Vegetation Index’s response to precipitation ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 71 Figure 4.1:‎ Methodological framework to estimate ETa in different spatial units of the KRB with strategic time steps -------------------------------------------------------- 76 Figure 4.2:‎ Segregating the (a) Kabul River Basin into (b) provincial and (c) subbasin boundaries -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 84 Figure 4.3:‎ Mean annual variation of actual evapotranspiration (mm) in Kabul river Basin 2003-2013 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 89 Figure 4.4:‎ Spatial distribution of inter-annual variation of actual evapotranspiration) in the Kabul river Basin (KRB) 2003-2013 ------------------------------------------ 90 Figure 4.5:‎ Monthly and seasonal variation of actual evapotranspiration during different years (2003-2013) across the Kabul River Basin --------------------- 93 Figure 4.6:‎ Annual variation of actual evapotranspiration in different subbasins of the Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 --------------------------------------------------------- 94 Figure 4.7:‎ Mean monthly variation (2003-2013) of actual evapotranspiration in different subbasins of the Kabul River Basin -------------------------------------- 95 Figure 4.8:‎ Mean seasonal (2003-2013) variation of actual evapotranspiration in different subbasins of the Kabul River Basin -------------------------------------- 96 Figure 4.9:‎ Annual variation (2003-2013) of actual evapotranspiration across provinces of the Kabul River Basin --------------------------------------------------------------- 97 Figure 4.10:‎ Mean seasonal annual 2003-2013 variation of actual evapotranspiration (mm) during October-April (winter) across the provinces of the Kabul River Basin --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 Figure 4.11:‎ Mean seasonal annual (2003-2013) variation of actual evapotranspiration (mm) during May-September (summer) across the provinces of the Kabul River Basin -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 Figure 4.12:‎ Cumulative behavior of mean season-annual (2003-2013) actual evapotranspiration (mm) in different provinces of the KRB during summer and winter seasons --------------------------------------------------------------------- 99 Figure 4.13:‎ Distribution of actual evapotranspiration (mm) during winter (October- April) and summer (May-September) 2012-2013 ------------------------------ 100 Figure 4.14:‎ Land cover based distribution of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) of main cereals across the Kabul River Basin 2003-2013 -------------------------------- 101 Figure 4.15:‎ Comparison of the ETa estimated through SEBS algorithm and AA model in Kunar (a) and Nangarhar (b) provinces of the KRB ----------------------------- 103 Figure 4.16:‎ Relationship of SEBS actual evapotranspiration (ETa) with NDVI of major crops in the Kabul River Basin ------------------------------------------------------- 105 Figure 4.17:‎ Effect of rainfall on actual evapotranspiration (ETa)-an example from Nangarhar province (downstream KRB) in Afghanistan (data from 2013) 107 0 Figure 4.18:‎ Effect of temperature (C ) on actual evapotranspiration (ETa)- an example from Nangarhar province (downstream KRB) of Afghanistan (2013) ------ 108 Figure 4.19:‎ Effect of wind speed (m/s) on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) - an example from Nangarhar province (downstream KRB) in Afghanistan (2013) ------ 109 Figure 4.20:‎ Effect of mean relative humidity (%) on actual evapotranspiration (ETa)- an example from Nangarhar province (downstream KRB) in Afghanistan (2013) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110 Figure 5.1:‎ Study area map with its major rivers’ network ---------------------------------- 114 Figure 5.2:‎ Conceptual framework for the streamflow quantification at Kabul River Basin -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 115 Figure 5.3:‎ Automatically delineated subbasins (watersheds) ------------------------------
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