Executive Warmaking Authority and Offensive Cyber Operations: Can Existing Legislation Successfully Constrain Presidential Power?
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Issue No. 486 AUGUST 2021
Issue Brief ISSUE NO. 486 AUGUST 2021 © 2021 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. The Limits of Military Coercion in Halting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Programme Kunal Singh Abstract Israel believes that the use of force is essential to stopping Iran from making the nuclear bomb. A vocal section of the strategic affairs community in the United States agrees with the proposition. This brief argues that military means are unlikely to sabotage the nuclear weapons programme of an advanced-stage bomb-seeker like Iran. Moreover, use of force could be counterproductive as it can incentivise Iran’s pursuit of the bomb, and it may erode the confidence required for diplomatic negotiations that can possibly help cease the weapons programme. Attribution: Kunal Singh, “The Limits of Military Coercion in Halting Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Programme,” ORF Issue Brief No. 486, August 2021, Observer Research Foundation. 01 n early April in Vienna, the Biden administration initiated efforts with Iran to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, from which the United States (US) had exited during the tenure of former US President Donald Trump. A week later, an explosion at Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment Ifacility caused a power blackout. Israel, the state most vocally opposed to the JCPOA, is widely believed to have -
Iran: Recent Incidents Likely a Coordinated String of Deliberate Attacks
The Cambridge Security Initiative IRAN: RECENT INCIDENTS LIKELY A COORDINATED STRING OF DELIBERATE ATTACKS JULY 2020 Richard C. Baffa Since early May, Iranian critical infrastructure and national security facilities have been subject to at least nine fires, explosions, and apparent cyberattacks; eight of these have taken place since 26 June. The nature of the targets and the short period of time in which they have occurred is unprecedented, strongly pointing to deliberate attacks and/or sabotage. Tehran has downplayed many of the incidents as accidents, but unofficially blamed the United States, Israel, and an unnamed Arab state (likely Saudi Arabia and/or the United Arab Emirates), and has vowed to retaliate. Two of the sites, the Natanz enrichment facility and Khojir military base, are highly secure national security facilities, harbouring sensitive nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, including the IR-4 and IR-6 generation of modern centrifuges. At Natanz, an explosion and fire damaged a new, high-value centrifuge production/assembly plant on 2 July; the building is adjacent to underground fuel production facilities where the U.S. and Israel conducted the Stuxnet cyberattack a decade ago. An unnamed Middle Eastern intelligence official claimed Israel was responsible, using a powerful bomb. On 26 June, another explosion took place at Khojir missile production site, a highly secretive facility for missile engines and propellant development and testing near Tehran. In addition, on 10 July, local witnesses in Garmdarreh, west of Tehran, reported a series of explosions followed by widespread power outages. Multiple reports claimed the explosions occurred at Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile depots, possibly the Islam IRGC Aerospace military base; there are also other military facilities, a chemical weapons research site, and power plants in the area. -
Duqu the Stuxnet Attackers Return
Uncovering Duqu The Stuxnet Attackers Return Nicolas Falliere 4/24/2012 Usenix Leet - San Jose, CA 1 Agenda 1 Revisiting Stuxnet 2 Discovering Duqu 3 Inside Duqu 4 Weird, Wacky, and Unknown 5 Summary 2 Revisiting Stuxnet 3 Key Facts Windows worm discovered in July 2010 Uses 7 different self-propagation methods Uses 4 Microsoft 0-day exploits + 1 known vulnerability Leverages 2 Siemens security issues Contains a Windows rootkit Used 2 stolen digital certificates Modified code on Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) First known PLC rootkit 4 Cyber Sabotage 5 Discovering Duqu 6 Boldi Bencsath Announce (CrySyS) emails: discovery and “important publish 25 page malware Duqu” paper on Duqu Boldi emails: Hours later the “DUQU DROPPER 7 C&C is wiped FOUND MSWORD 0DAY INSIDE” Inside Duqu 8 Key Facts Duqu uses the same code as Stuxnet except payload is different Payload isn‟t sabotage, but espionage Highly targeted Used to distribute infostealer components Dropper used a 0-day (Word DOC w/ TTF kernel exploit) Driver uses a stolen digital certificate (C-Media) No self-replication, but can be instructed to copy itself to remote machines Multiple command and control servers that are simply proxies Infections can serve as peers in a peer-to-peer C&C system 9 Countries Infected Six organizations, in 8 countries confirmed infected 10 Architecture Main component A large DLL with 8 or 6 exports and 1 main resource block Resource= Command & Control module Copies itself as %WINDIR%\inf\xxx.pnf Injected into several processes Controlled by a Configuration Data file Lots of similarities with Stuxnet Organization Code Usual lifespan: 30 days Can be extended 11 Installation 12 Signed Drivers Some signed (C-Media certificate) Revoked on October 14 13 Command & Control Module Communication over TCP/80 and TCP/443 Embeds protocol under HTTP, but not HTTPS Includes small blank JPEG in all communications Basic proxy support Complex protocol TCP-like with fragments, sequence and ack. -
Reimagining US Strategy in the Middle East
REIMAGININGR I A I I G U.S.S STRATEGYT A E Y IIN THET E MMIDDLED L EEASTS Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA958-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0662-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover composite design: Jessica Arana Image: wael alreweie / Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface U.S. -
Usma Class of 2006 War Studies Conference Reassessing Deterrence in the 21St Century
USMA CLASS OF 2006 WAR STUDIES CONFERENCE REASSESSING DETERRENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY UNITED STATES MILITARY ACADEMY NOVEMBER 13–15, 2016 CONTENTS Welcome Letter 2 About West Point 3 Agenda 4 Important Administrative Information 8 Conference Staff 9 Keynote Speaker Profiles 10 Participant Profiles 15 1 WELCOME TO THE USMA CLASS OF 2006 WAR STUDIES CONFERENCE On behalf of Lieutenant General Robert L. Caslen, Jr., the superintendent of the United States Military Academy, it is my honor to welcome you to West Point. This is our inaugural War Studies Conference, an annual event organized by the Modern War Institute within West Point’s Department of Military Instruction. The purpose of this conference is to convene a select and interdisciplinary group of thinkers across government, academia, media, and the business world to discuss a topic of vital importance to our ability to fight and win modern wars. The title of this year’s conference is “Reassessing Deterrence in the 21st Century.” To encourage a free and open exchange of views, all comments during the conference’s panels are “not for attribution,” but our keynote addresses will be “on the record.” Fifty years after Thomas Schelling wrote Arms and Influence, globalization, modernization, and the pervasiveness of non-state actors have fundamentally changed our credibility as well as our capacity to deter. Put simply, tomorrow’s potential threats require a new approach for American strategic deterrence. If deterrence is “the art of coercion and intimidation,” as Schelling noted, how do we deter non-state adversaries with no return address? How do we deter potential cyber warriors? How do we keep our 20th-century alliances strong and capable of extended deterrence going forward? Finally, how can we enhance our geo-economic and other non-military tools of deterrence? The discussions we have over the next few days will shape our first edited conference volume, which will inform the national debate we have on this important issue. -
CTC Sentinel Welcomes Submissions
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point Objective • Relevant • Rigorous | April 2018 • Volume 11, Issue 4 FEATURE ARTICLE A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE Five Years After the NYPD vs. Revolution Muslim Boston Marathon Bombing The inside story of how the NYPD defeated the radicalization hub Jesse Morton and Mitchell Silber William Weinreb and Harold Shaw FEATURE ARTICLE Editor in Chief 1 NYPD vs. Revolution Muslim: The Inside Story of the Defeat of a Local Radicalization Hub Paul Cruickshank Jesse Morton and Mitchell Silber Managing Editor INTERVIEW Kristina Hummel 8 A View from the CT Foxhole: Five Years After the Boston Marathon Bombing EDITORIAL BOARD Nicholas Tallant Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. ANALYSIS Department Head Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) 15 The Islamic State's Lingering Legacy among Young Men from the Mosul Area Scott Atran, Hoshang Waziri, Ángel Gómez, Hammad Sheikh, Lucía Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, Ph.D. López-Rodríguez, Charles Rogan, and Richard Davis Director, CTC 23 Challenging the ISK Brand in Afghanistan-Pakistan: Rivalries and Divided Loyalties Brian Dodwell Amira Jadoon, Nakissa Jahanbani, and Charmaine Willis Deputy Director, CTC 30 The British Hacker Who Became the Islamic State's Chief Terror Cyber- Coach: A Profile of Junaid Hussain CONTACT Nafees Hamid Combating Terrorism Center U.S. Military Academy Between 2006 and 2012, two men working on opposite sides of the strug- 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall gle between global jihadis and the United States faced of in New York City. Jesse Morton was the founder of Revolution Muslim, a group that prosely- West Point, NY 10996 tized—online and on New York City streets—on behalf of al-Qa`ida. -
Stuxnet, Schmitt Analysis, and the Cyber “Use-Of-Force” Debate
Members of International Telecommunications Union and UN Institute for Training and Research confer on cyber security UN (Jean-Marc Ferré) UN (Jean-Marc Stuxnet, Schmitt Analysis, and the Cyber “Use-of-Force” Debate By ANDREW C. FOLTZ All Members shall refrain in ne of the many seemingly advance the specific criteria states will use in intractable legal issues sur- making such determinations. their international relations rounding cyberspace involves As discussed in this article, several ana- from the threat or use of force O whether and when peacetime lytic frameworks have been developed to help against the territorial integ- cyber operations constitute a prohibited use of assess when cyber operations constitute a use force under Article 2(4) of the United Nations of force.3 One conclusion these frameworks rity or political independence (UN) Charter. Notwithstanding a significant share is that cyber operations resulting in of any state, or in any other body of scholarly work on this topic and physical damage or injury will almost always manner inconsistent with extensive real-world examples from which to be regarded as a use of force. When these draw, there is no internationally recognized frameworks were developed, however, there the Purposes of the United definition of a use of force.2 Rather, what has were few, if any, examples of peacetime, state- Nations. emerged is a general consensus that some sponsored cyber coercion. More importantly, cyber operations will constitute a use of force, the prospect of cyber attacks causing physical —Article 2(4), Charter of the but that it may not be possible to identify in damage was largely theoretical.4 Beginning United Nations1 Lieutenant Colonel Andrew C. -
INSS Insight No. 1409, December 2, 2020 the Assassination of Fakhrizadeh: Considerations and Consequences
INSS Insight No. 1409, December 2, 2020 The Assassination of Fakhrizadeh: Considerations and Consequences Amos Yadlin and Assaf Orion The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizada invites six questions: Who is responsible for the act? What was the objective? Why now? What are the consequences of the assassination? How will Iran respond? What is the recommended policy for Israel in light of this development? This article contends that barring narrow political considerations, whoever ordered Fakhrizadeh's assassination apparently tried to achieve three strategic objectives: damage Iran's nuclear program; obstruct the Biden administration's return to the nuclear agreement; and perhaps, though less likely, encourage an escalation that would result in a US attack on Iran's nuclear sites. The first objective seems to have been achieved, although the response to the assassination is still ahead and may exact a costly price. Attainment of the other two goals depends heavily on the Iranian response, but in any case, these are far- reaching objectives with slimmer chances of realization. The year 2020 began with the assassination of Revolutionary Guards General Qassem Soleimani, and approached its close with the assassination of Revolutionary Guards General Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force and led Iran's strategic effort for regional hegemony, primarily through subversive diplomacy, proxy warfare, and arms proliferation. Fakhrizadeh led Iran's second strategic effort – the pursuit of nuclear weapons. The assassination of Fakhrizadeh invites six questions: Who is responsible for the act? What was the objective? Why now? What are the consequences of the assassination? How will Iran respond? What is the recommended policy for Israel in light of this development? The United States took public responsibility for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani and in response suffered an Iranian barrage of missiles fired at an American base in Iraq. -
Stuxnet 0.5: the Missing Link Geoff Mcdonald, Liam O Murchu, Stephen Doherty, Eric Chien
Security Response Stuxnet 0.5: The Missing Link Geoff McDonald, Liam O Murchu, Stephen Doherty, Eric Chien Version 1.0: February 26, 2013 Overview Contents In 2010, Symantec reported on a new and highly sophisticated worm Overview ............................................................ 1 called Stuxnet. This worm became known as the first computer Installation and load point ................................ 3 software threat that was used as a cyber-weapon. The worm was Replication ......................................................... 3 specifically designed to take control over industrial plant machinery Command-and-control ...................................... 4 and making them operate outside of their safe or normal performance Payload ............................................................... 5 envelope, causing damage in the process. This was a first in the history Man-in-the-Middle ....................................... 5 of malware. Fingerprinting and building DB8061 ................ 6 PLC device attack code ................................ 9 Clues in the code pointed to other versions of the worm which could Conclusion........................................................ 12 potentially perform different actions leaving an open question about Appendix A ....................................................... 13 Stuxnet and how it came to be. The wait for the missing link is now Appendix B ....................................................... 14 over. Symantec have now discovered an older version of Stuxnet -
Iranian Offensive Cyber Attack Capabilities
January 13, 2020 Iranian Offensive Cyber Attack Capabilities Threat Evolution internal internet security controls. The NCC is also tasked Iran’s use of cyberspace has evolved from an internal with “preparing for a cultural war” between Iran and its means of information control and repression to more enemies, according to the 2013 NCC Statute issued by Iran. aggressive attacks on foreign targets. The regime has been developing its own cybersecurity software and internet Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). A branch architecture in order to protect and insulate its networks, of the Iranian Armed Forces, this military force oversees and it has been developing technological cyber expertise as offensive cyber activities. a form of asymmetric warfare against a superior conventional U.S. military. IRGC Electronic Warfare and Cyber Defence Organization. This organization provides training courses Iran also has a history of using cyberattacks in retaliation in cyber defenses and denies access to and censors online against the United States. In 2010, a computer worm known content and communications. as Stuxnet was discovered by cybersecurity researchers to have infiltrated the computers that controlled nuclear Basij Cyber Council. Considered a paramilitary force, centrifuges in Iran, causing physical damage and preventing Basij comprises nonprofessionals, using volunteer hackers operation. The Stuxnet worm was reported to have been a under IRGC specialist supervision. These volunteers are joint effort between the governments of the United States sometimes referred to as “cyber war commandos.” and Israel. Following the discovery of the Stuxnet malware, U.S. assets experienced an increase in the severity and National Passive Defense Organization (NPDO). -
Hezbollah and the Use of Drones As a Weapon of Terrorism
Hezbollah’s Drones Hezbollah and the Use of Drones as a Weapon of Terrorism By Milton Hoenig The international terrorist group Hezbollah, driven by resistance to Israel, now regularly sends low flying drones into Israeli airspace. These drones are launched and remotely manned from the Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon and presumably supplied by its patron and strategic partner, Iran. On the U.S. State Department’s list of terrorist organizations since 1995, Hezbollah has secured its presence in Lebanon through various phases. It established a strong social services network, and in 2008 it became the dominant political party in the Lebanese government and supported the Assad regime in the Syrian Civil War. Hezbollah’s drone flights into Israeli airspace Hezbollah’s first flight of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or drone, into Israeli airspace for reconnaissance purposes occurred in November 2004, catching Israeli intelligence off guard. A Mirsad-1 drone (an updated version of the early Iranian Mohajer drone used for reconnaissance of Iraqi troops during the 1980s Iran-Iraq War), flew south from Lebanon into Israel, hovered over the Western Galilee town of Nahariya for about 20 minutes and then returned to Lebanon before the Israeli air force could intercept it. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah boasted that the Mirsad could reach “anywhere, deep, deep” into Israel with 40 to 50 kilograms of explosives.1 One report at the time was that Iran had supplied Hezbollah with eight such drones, and over two years some 30 Lebanese operatives had -
B R I E F I R
IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu B R E F 12 2020 I From Pariah to Partner: A View from Israel on a Realigned Middle East By Or Yissachar Introduction Flight number LY971 on Monday 31 August Tel Aviv from using their airspace, much less land 2020, was in many respects anything but in their airports, even referring to it merely as “the Zionist entity”. Much more fundamentally another Middle East destination. Traditionally, than technical disagreement over policy items a mundane commercial flight traveling to the Arab world’s maximum pressure campaign or territorial arrangements, the Arab world against Israel was designed not only to call into has made clear what was best enunciated in question its existence militarily, but crumble its the infamous 1967 Khartoum “Three No’s”: legitimacy diplomatically – prohibiting Israeli “No peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, citizens from entering their territories, banning no negotiations with Israel.” Despite episodic Israeli and other airlines traveling to and from under-the-radar contacts, the Arab world had IRMO BRIEF 12/2020 1 operated under the assumption that any cracks relationship with Israel is but one component. construed as de facto recognition of a country mirrors the formation of the three new regional in this well-fortified wall could have been Challenging the status quo, this reconfiguration considered a red rag. axes: Iran and its proxies, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist Yet recently, this red rag has paled considerably. movements, and unprecedently, the Israeli- moderate Sunni-American axis.