sign in sign up
<<
Home , Abraham Accords, Stuxnet, Zionist entity

IRMO Institut za razvoj i međunarodne odnose Institute for Development and International Relations I R M O Ured u Zagrebu

B R E F 12 2020 I

From Pariah to Partner: A View from on a Realigned Middle East

By Or Yissachar

Introduction

Flight number LY971 on Monday 31 August Tel Aviv from using their airspace, much less land 2020, was in many respects anything but in their airports, even referring to it merely as “the ”. Much more fundamentally another Middle East destination. Traditionally, than technical disagreement over policy items a mundane commercial flight traveling to the ’s maximum pressure campaign or territorial arrangements, the Arab world against Israel was designed not only to call into has made clear what was best enunciated in question its existence militarily, but crumble its the infamous 1967 Khartoum “Three No’s”: legitimacy diplomatically – prohibiting Israeli “No peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, citizens from entering their territories, banning no negotiations with Israel.” Despite episodic Israeli and other airlines traveling to and from under-the-radar contacts, the Arab world had

IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

1 operated under the assumption that any cracks relationship with Israel is but one component. construed as de facto recognition of a country mirrors the formation of the three new regional in this well-fortified wall could have been Challenging the status quo, this reconfiguration considered a red rag. axes: and its proxies, Turkey and the and other radical Islamist Yet recently, this red rag has paled considerably. movements, and unprecedently, the Israeli- moderate Sunni-American axis. Dhabi were Israeli Head of Aboard that debut flight from Tel Aviv to Abu Council Meir Ben-Shabbat, US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien, and Senior Advisor A perfect storm , traveling to meet their Emirati This novelty, Israeli-Arab normalization as basis on an El Al carrier in order to put together a détente as well as for counterparts while flying over Saudi airspace peace deal. Both sides hailed this Arab-Israeli the formation of a likeminded regional security for a mutually beneficial coalition facing Iran, has been the result of of a century; the UAE now welcomes thousands the intersection of three main geopolitical “historic peace”, the first of its kind in a quarter of Israeli tourists, rolled out the red carpet developments: Iran’s hegemonic aspirations for Israeli business leaders during the recent and military nuclear program; domestic unrest GITEX, and mutual investments are expected to or even radical Islamist coups d’état in multiple soon reach 10 billion USD. Arab leaders have Arab countries, mistakenly dubbed “the Arab congratulated the move, and the Spring”; and steadfast determination alongside rejected the Palestinian Authority’s motion an off-protocol strategy by Washington. to condemn it, a previously-unimaginable Together, these conditions have created a scenario – while by contrast, 40 years earlier it perfect storm, used by its protagonists to lead condemned for its peace deal with Israel, to these unprecedented outcomes: four Israeli- suspending its membership for 10 years. Arab normalization agreements to date, a visible anti-Iran coalition such as during the Warsaw This anecdote can be seen as a forerunner of Summit, acquiescence to previously-scandalous an unprecedented realignment of the Middle propositions such as repeated Israeli airstrikes East’s deep-seated axes of power. In recent against Iranian military infrastructure in , years, moderate Sunni countries’ orthodox and a complete disinterest – beyond lip service national security strategy has gone through – toward the Palestinian question. a tectonic geopolitical shift, of which their a transformative recalculation reflective of

IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

2 The combination of common being viewed as the region’s pariah, isolated challenges with straightforward and menaced, a political byword for the Arab World’s multiple issues, to its key partner to and pragmatic Arab, American tackle primary security and economic concerns. and Israeli leaders has led to Such a dramatic strategic development thus unprecedentedly close ranks. sheds new light on orthodox approaches to international relations more broadly as well, This heterodoxical approach comes as a in a way that behooves critically rethinking polar contrast to the ruling orthodoxy, concepts which are at times minimized in hitherto suggesting pre-conditioning regional today’s march toward globalization: religion, tribe, national interest, and power. normalization and cooperation by first through a list of demands Israel could not addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict accept. Long controlled by the protocol – as Hard reality disrupts the status quo outlined by the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, the ’s statements and elsewhere – Former National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes, Arab leaders have been increasingly showing once described as “Obama’s foreign-policy amanuensis”, famously stated that “President deep-seated principles. With Iranian forces Obama has taken on some sacred cows.” Indeed, jarring flexibility on previously-considered on their doorstep and sprouting inside their Obama’s pride of “rejecting the Washington territories, Arab leaders have effectively attempting to restart relations with Russia, warehoused the protocol to prioritize their playbook” is not entirely unjustified: by own national interests, while taking a serious relaunch relations with Cuba, and take a more gamble with regards to their prestige and holistic view on free trade between the US and reputation. From an Israeli perspective, this Asia and the Americas, his administration has new reality would also create a leverage on demonstrated its willingness to think outside the Palestinian Authority leading to a more the box and challenge old paradigms. favorable compromise, rather than the other The same cannot be said, however, on its way around. approach to Israel’s place in the Middle East. The The combination of common challenges with Obama administration has made clear it viewed straightforward and pragmatic Arab, American the ruling orthodoxy as the “only solution” to and Israeli leaders has led to unprecedentedly pre-conditioning of Israeli-Arab normalization close ranks. Israel has thus transitioned from the conflict. By recognizing as “hard reality” the

IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

3 by an Israeli-Palestinian peace delivered solely Yet while the Obama Doctrine may have been according to the existing paradigm, it effectively heartly welcomed by the Arab World in 2009, institutionalized the decades-long status quo in the same was no longer true as from 2011. Be it disinterest in the Middle East, the “Pivot to which Arab leaders had benefited from their leverage in order to self-legitimize and reorient administration has failed to supply the Israelis- significant diplomatic, political, and resource Asia”, or the firm belief in diplomacy, the Obama international priorities. Sunnis with what they considered quintessential survival guarantees facing the genuine hard Firstly, a quasi-automatic majority in reality – in particular, Iran’s regional aspirations international halls of power by Arab League and domestic Arab uprisings. and the Non-Aligned Movement members has led, for instance, to an astronomical 86% of Obama’s rapprochement to Iran, culminating in the adopted UN General Assembly’s country- the 2015 JCPOA (the “Iran Nuclear Deal”), was crises such as the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, leaders, who interpreted it as appeasement and specific resolutions to target Israel. Secondly, a red flag for both Israel and moderate Sunni following the Nixon administration’s decision containment of Iran’s behavior. While vowing to back Israel during the , to prevent Iran from attaining deliverable highlighted the West’s heavy dependence nuclear weapons and imposing sanctions, on Middle East crude oil. Put together, this the Obama administration’s record has led leverage has not only made Israel the ideal regional countries to suspect a rhetoric-action culprit – domestic stability in Arab countries by gap. The Iranian regime’s outspoken goal to reuniting the people around a common enemy – annihilate Israel alongside its regional strategy it also greatly contributed to the establishment of “exporting the revolution” by militarily of widespread notions regarding the region and supporting Syria’s Assad, ’s Houthis, Israel’s place in it. ’s Shi’ite militias, ’s , Gaza’s , and domestic resistance groups Obama’s rapprochement to Iran, in , Qatar, , Afghanistan culminating in the 2015 “Iran and elsewhere, has alarmed the Israelis-Sunnis Nuclear Deal” was a red flag for as to the changing regional balance of power. both Israel and moderate Sunni as a state sponsor of terrorism, going through leaders. A regime flagged by the US State Department missiles, Iran noted Obama’s orders to cease significant rearmament by long-range ballistic that targeted its protégé

IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

4 Hezbollah’s narco-terrorist network, in order to phone call, demanding him to resign and allow conclude the nuclear deal. A regime previously open election to all citizens – which ultimately violating a series of agreements such as the NPT led to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to was viewed by Israeli-Sunnis as untrustworthy power. with diplomacy; yet the JCPOA itself was said to contain multiple loopholes, an expiration date, Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed and crucially, excluding the skeptical countries Bin Salman landed a bombshell of the region from the negotiations process. by acknowledging Israel’s right Ruling out an American guarantee to stand to exist as homeland of the Jewish by the Sunni countries in case of war with people. Iran, Obama explained this approach by these countries’ lack of strategic autonomy, forcing an Under this climax, Israel’s national security American military intervention. By contrast, the strategy, underscoring strategic autonomy and Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, dead-serious enforcement of self-defense, was questioned the Iranian regime’s ability to quietly though strongly appreciated by Sunni genuinely change its behavior while in the same leaders, especially with respect to Iran. Firstly, breath, landed a bombshell by acknowledging it made clear it will not allow Iran to threaten Israel’s as homeland of the Jewish its immediate balance of power by establishing people, what no Arab leader ever did. military infrastructure in Syria, reportedly carrying out hundreds of airstrikes – contrasting In parallel, with one long-serving Arab leader Obama’s refusal to exercise his administration’s after another dethroned following the 2011 red line following Assad’s chemical weapons Arab uprisings, leaders have started, for the attack on Ghouta. Secondly, its reported clandestine under-the-radar warfare against genuine anxiety with respect to their own first time since decolonization, to develop Iran’s nuclear program, from the virus regime’s survival. Domestically, the demand to targeted killing of nuclear scientists. Thirdly, for their resignation was accompanied by little Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s outspoken interest toward the traditional culprit, Israel. Iran-skeptic rhetoric, culminating in a speech Washington, however, has made these leaders against the hatching JCPOA in front of a joint suspect they are left out in the cold, and their session of Congress, circumventing the White security interests are far from being understood. House at the cost of risking his already-testy In Egypt’s case, for example, President Mubarak relationship with the Obama administration. was reportedly “shocked” by President Obama’s Lastly, as former Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz

IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

5 put it, Israel prefers stable dictators such as The following may be described as the key Assad as neighbors rather than their radical or organizing principles of the “Trump Doctrine”: anarchic substitutes. preferring interests over ideals; highlighting sovereignty, religion, and tribalism rather Israel was also well aware of the Sunni World’s than globalism; a Reaganite “Peace Through private resentment regarding the Palestinians, Strength” by complementing diplomacy with military deterrence and compellence; and by turning down generous offers, choosing the whom they accused of “eternalizing” the conflict franc-parler rather than political correctness. partners’ unsparing funds. The status quo path of terrorism, while benefiting their Arab President Trump’s music upon simply did not meet the urgency of the hour. A arrival to Riyadh seemed more previously-unlikely Israeli-Sunni partnership has thereby begun to form under-the-radar as reassuring, calling to isolate the the least-likely allies found themselves on the Iranian regime. same boat, facing common threats and subject to the same cold shoulder from the US. These Firstly, Trump’s Middle East strategy was moderate Sunni leaders’ chief interest – political reverse-engineered from the grassroots needs survival – has remained constant; the way to and interests of regional leaderships, rather exercise it, however, has turned on its head. than imposing a-priori ideal terms, what it called “listening rather than lecturing”. On the Israeli-Palestinian issue, for instance, The Trump Middle East Doctrine: From recognizing the existing reality by moving orthodoxy to heterodoxy the US embassy to Jerusalem was one of the symbols of this depart from the orthodoxy. Its If the Obama administration prided itself for Peace Plan was the product of shuttle diplomacy taking on sacred cows, the Trump administration by the administration’s Middle East team; if, seemed eager to throw them out the window. for example, publicly alarmed against The self-described disruptive administration Israeli enactment of sovereignty in parts of has assumed what it called “principled realism” as the linchpin of its National Security Strategy leaked how in private they would prefer Israeli Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), officials and foreign policy, realizing that in order to turn presence there over a dreaded scenario of a Palestinian-Iranian base on their western front. – rather, rewriting it was of the essence. the corner, following the manual was insufficient

IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

6 Arab leaders publicly endorsed the Plan, even now be able to access the Al Aqsa Mosque in showing up to its unraveling ceremony. Jerusalem. Given the absence of a Torah scroll in Manama’s mostly-locked and abandoned The administration showed the same approach synagogue, Kushner presented one to the when it came to Iran. Obama’s approach Bahraini King upon arrival to the Manama privately frustrated Gulf Arab leaders, for Economic Peace Summit, unlocking the doors example, following his remarks at the Riyadh and praying with local and Israeli guests. The security summit, welcoming Iran’s future inauguration ceremony of the Dubai Multi potential as a responsible and peaceful regional Commodities Center representation at Israel’s actor. He also took the opportunity to criticize the Sunnis’ failure to meet universal human Jewish Mezuzah on its doorpost. While Obama rights standards, what was viewed as an attempt Ramat Gan Stock Exchange included fixing a highlighted his suspicion of tribalism, these to dress democratic values on a region with no moves mirror this element’s inseparability to such tradition. By contrast, President Trump’s address religion-based differences. music upon arrival to Riyadh seemed more reassuring, calling to isolate the Iranian regime While the Obama administration while recognizing the region’s responsibility to pivoted to Asia, under Trump, the determine its own fate. Middle East pivoted to America. By naming the historic peace deals Finally, its decision to complement diplomacy “The ” they also with military deterrence and compellence has specified how Muslim citizens been demonstrated by its aggressive approach would now be able to access the Al toward Iran. Taking down Iranian Quds Force Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. commander Qasem Soleimani in the aftermath of the attack on the American embassy in The religious and tribal element is also central Baghdad sent a strong signal in that direction, to communication with a deeply-conservative standing in stark contrast to Obama’s refusal region, home to some of the world’s central to destroy by airstrike a US drone that landed Holy Sites. By naming the historic peace deals in Iran due to technical failures and containing “The Abraham Accords”, underscoring the highly sensitive technology, preferring to commitment to inter-religious unity, they formally request Iran its return, which was not granted. Netanyahu’s insistence that in the also specified how Muslim citizens would IRMO BRIEF 12/2020

7 Middle East the strong survives thus seemed independence and grassroots, heterodoxical to recognize how in the region, sovereignty strategy, signaled it was now the US that has relies on power and prestige rather than UN leverage over the Arab World. resolutions. Combining all the above elements, Mistakenly described often times as isolationist, the administration gained the region’s trust; the Trump administration has preferred while the Obama administration pivoted to leading regional regimes into a trust-based US- Asia, under Trump, the Middle East pivoted to sponsored coalition of shared interests, much America. like the post-World War II hub-and-spokes system in Southern Asia, or NATO in Europe. As Conclusion opposed to international forums, these leaders’ national interests were now front and center, Facing grave national security challenges which they leveraged to harvest domestic – Iran’s aspirations and domestic political public support, too. unrest – moderate Sunni leaders began fearing they might be victims of their own protocol, This national- and sovereign-oriented strategy conditioning relations with Israel by following derives directly from the conservative legacy, the Palestinian paradigm. Israel, they realized, and put together with the strong local, religious, with a proven record of military might, strategic and tribal elements it celebrates, constitutes autonomy, technological innovation, and an antithesis to the globalist approach of common interests, could be a key survival device appeasement and containment that also led to to their regimes – this time by cooperation, not the JCPOA. The success of this code-breaking rejection. paradigm may alarm the globalist camp, viewed as a serious threat to its longevity. Between 2009 and 2016, the Middle East has gone through a great deal of turmoil and parchment guarantees, recreating elsewhere Though if what finally counts is results, not change, yet the Obama administration’s foreign this unparalleled success in a region long- policy did not change with it. Refusing to considered a lost cause would be critical to challenge the paradigm, the administration’s strategize any future security conundrum. globalist orientation and relativist terminology has translated into a serious national security threat for the newly-formed Israeli-Sunni axis. The Trump administration, combining energy Or Yissachar is an Associate Fellow at the DISCLAIMER: The views presented in this Austrian Institute for European and Security paper are solely of the author and do not Studies (AIES), Vienna, Austria, and a National Security Researcher at the Israeli National for Development and International Relations represent an official position of the Institute Security Experts Organization HaBithonistim, (IRMO) or of the Hanns Seidel Foundation. Binyamina, Israel.

IRMO Ured u Zagrebu

ed u ag eb

Hanns Seidel Stiftung Amruševa 9, Zagreb, Croatia www. hanns-seidel-stiftung.com.hr

© Institute for Development and International Relations – IRMO, ISSN 1849-9155