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Lessons for Biological Weapons Verification Verific ation Yearbook 2002 Introduction2.p65 1 01/12/02, 15:09 Verification Yearbook 2002 published by The Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (vertic) Baird House, 15–17 St. Cross Street, London ec1n 8uw, United Kingdom Telephone +44.(0)20.7440.6960 Fax +44.(0)20.7242.3266 E-mail [email protected] Website www.vertic.org Funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust and the Ford Foundation Editors Trevor Findlay and Oliver Meier Sub-editor Eve Johansson Design and production Richard Jones The Verification Research, Training and any fair dealing for the purpose of research or Information Centre is an independent, non- private study, or criticism or review, as permit- profit making, non-governmental organisation. ted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Its mission is to promote effective and efficient Act, 1988, or, in the case of reprographic re- verification as a means of ensuring confidence production, in accordance with the terms of in the implementation of international agree- the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing ments and intra-national agreements with Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction international involvement. aims to outside of these terms should be sent to the achieve its mission through research, training, editor. dissemination of information, and interaction This publication is sold subject to the con- with relevant political, diplomatic, technical, dition that it shall not, by way of trade or scientific and non-governmental communities. otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or other- wise circulated without the prior consent of All rights reserved. The copyright of this the editor in any form of binding or cover other publication is owned by . The views than that in which it is published and without expressed are not necessarily those of . a similar condition including this condition No part of this publication may be repro- being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. duced, stored in a retrieval system or transmit- ted in any form or by any means, electronic, First published in December 2002 mechanical or photocopying, recording or Printed by Russell Press Ltd., Russell House, otherwise, without the prior permission of Bulwell Lane, Basford, Nottingham 6 0, the editor. Within the , exceptions may be United Kingdom granted at the editor’s discretion in respect of 1-899548-35-1 1477-3759 Introduction2.p65 2 01/12/02, 15:09 Contents ○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○ Acronyms 5–8 Preface 9–13 Joke Waller-Hunter Introduction: verification in the news for 1 15–20 all the wrong and right reasons Trevor Findlay Arms control and disarmament Recent developments in nuclear 2 23–35 weapons verification Nikolai Sokov CTBT verification: technical progress 3 37–52 versus political stasis Oliver Meier The OPCW at five: balancing verification in 4 53–73 evolving circumstances Robert J. Mathews Continued turbulence over BWC verification 5 75–92 Jenni Rissanen The Trilateral Agreement: lessons for 6 93–109 biological weapons verification David C. Kelly Verifying a missile accord with North Korea 7 111–127 Leon V. Sigal A role for verification and monitoring in 8 129–143 small arms control? Kate Joseph and Taina Susiluoto Introduction2.p65 3 01/12/02, 15:09 the environment 147–169 9 Verification under the Kyoto Protocol Molly Anderson 171–186 10 Monitoring environmental treaties using earth observation Josef Aschbacher election observation 189–204 11 International election observation Bill Gray and Therese Laanela technologies and modalities 207–221 12 Infrasound as a tool for CTBT verification Hein Haak and Läslo Evers 223–238 13 The Open Skies Treaty Ernst Britting and Hartwig Spitzer 239–256 14 Verification and advanced co-operative security Nancy Gallagher Introduction2.p65 4 01/12/02, 15:09 Acronyms ○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○ Assigned Amount Units Anti-Ballistic Missile Air Force Base Ad Hoc Group Alliance of Small Island States African National Congress Aggregate National Data Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation Bonn International Center for Conversion Biological Research Security System Biological Weapons Biological Weapons Convention BioWeapons Prevention Project Centro de Asistencia y Promoción Electoral Confidence-Building Measure Clean Development Mechanism Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Certified Emission Reduction Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species Commonwealth Observer Group Conference of the Parties () Commitment Period Reserve Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Conference of States Parties () Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation Chemical Weapons Acronyms.p65 5 01/12/02, 15:09 ○○○○ 6 Ver i f ication Year book 2002 Chemical Weapons Convention s Chemical Weapon Destruction Facilities Director-General Deoxyribonucleic acid Discrete Organic Chemical Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Executive Council () () Economic and Social Council Extremely Dangerous Research European Remote Sensing Satellite Expert Review Team Emission Reduction Unit European Space Agency Emissions Trading European Union Fiscal Year Global Communications Infrastructure Greenhouse Gas International Alert International Atomic Energy Agency Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile International Data Centre International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance International Foundation for Election Systems International Monitoring System Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces International Panel on Climate Change Infrared International Science and Technology Center International Transaction Log Joint Implementation Limited Test Ban Treaty Acronyms.p65 6 01/12/02, 15:09 ○○○○ Acronyms 7 Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forest Multilateral Environmental Agreement Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle Meeting of the Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) Non-Aligned Movement North Atlantic Treaty Organization Non-Governmental Organisation National Institutes of Health () Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty National Technical Means Organization of American States Organization of African Unity Other Chemical Production Facility Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights () Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Operational Manual Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Open Skies Consultative Commission Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe On-Site Inspection Potentially Dangerous Research PrepCom Preparatory Commission PrepCom Preparatory Committee (for the review conferences) Partial Test Ban Treaty Provisional Technical Secretariat & Research and Development r Recombinant Revcon Review Conference () Acronyms.p65 7 01/12/02, 15:09 ○○○○ 8 Ver i f ication Year book 2002 Removal Unit Re-entry Vehicle Southern African Development Community Synthetic Aperture Radar Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Tactical Nuclear Weapons Technical Secretariat (of the ) United Kingdom United Nations United Nations Development Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission United Nations Special Commission on Iraq United States United States Department of Agriculture Working Group () World Summit on Sustainable Development Acronyms.p65 8 01/12/02, 15:09 Preface Joke Waller-Hunter Since the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment, which produced the Environment Programme, the number of multilateral environmental agree- ments (s) has risen sharply. Most of the newer agreements contain some kind of verification mechanism (even though the term is rarely used in s) to monitor and assess parties’ compliance. For these, negotiators incorporated provisions for the reporting, assessment and review of treaty implementation right from the start of their negotiation, as in the case of the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. However, such mechanisms have even evolved for older agreements which originally lacked verification provisions. The trend towards stronger monitoring provisions for assessing compliance with s continues, indicating that effective verification is increasingly considered a prerequisite for their successful implementation. The Kyoto Protocol, which includes extensive and rigorous provisions for reporting and review, is an excellent example of this new generation of s. In response to growing scientific evidence, parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change () now acknowledge the need for quicker and tougher measures to reduce the burning of fossil fuels—the biggest contributory cause of global warming. The adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to the convention in 1997 was an important first step towards tackling the problem by establishing—for the first time—legally binding emissions reduction targets for greenhouse gases. Agreement on the Marrakech Accords in October 2001 paves the way for the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force in 2003 once the necessary ratifications have been deposited. The verification system, which is based on self-reporting and expert review, will be fundamental to the successful implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. The main objective of the system will be to judge each country’s compliance
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