The Security of the Caspian Sea Region Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Catherine Kelleher, Vice-Chairman (United States) Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Professor Dr Helga Haftendorn (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 E-mail: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.se The Security of the Caspian Sea Region Edited by Gennady Chufrin OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 2001 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bogotá Buenos Aires Calcutta Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi Paris São Paulo Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto Warsaw and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 2001 First published 2001 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Data available ISBN 0-19-925020-0 Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddles Ltd., Guildford and King’s Lynn Contents Preface xi Acknowledgements xiv Acronyms and abbreviations xv 1. Introduction 1 Gennady Chufrin I. The changing Caspian security environment 1 II. Time limits and research objectives 7 III. The structure of this volume 7 Figure 1.1. Map of the Caspian Sea region 6 Part I. The Caspian security environment 2. The new geopolitical situation in the Caspian region 11 Lena Jonson I. Introduction 11 II. The Russian factor in the Caspian region 13 III. International engagement 16 IV. The energy field—parallel systems evolving? 22 V. The security field—parallel systems evolving? 26 VI. Prospects for the future 31 3. Energy reserves, pipeline routes and the legal regime in the 33 Caspian Sea John Roberts I. The energy reserves and production potential of the Caspian 33 II. Caspian pipelines: the carriage of Caspial oil and gas to 44 market III. The Caspian Sea legal regime 64 IV. The Turkish Straits issue 67 Figure 3.1. Caspian oil and gas pipelines, existing, under construction 46 and proposed 4. The Caspian Sea: threats to its biological resources and 69 environmental security Igor Zonn I. Introduction 69 II. Threats to the Caspian’s biological resources 70 III. Environmental problems 74 IV. Future scenarios 80 Table 4.1. Sturgeon catches in the Caspian Basin 72 vi THE SECURITY OF THE CASPIAN SEA REGION 5. Major trends in military expenditure and arms acquisitions by the 83 states of the Caspian region Mark Eaton I. Introduction 83 II. Iran 85 III. The South Caucasus 88 IV. Central Asia 97 V. Multilateral security cooperation 111 VI. Conclusions 114 Table 5.1. Military expenditure in the Caspian Sea region, in local 84 currencies, 1995–2000 Table 5.2. Military expenditure in the Caspian Sea region, in US 85 dollars, 1995–2000 Table 5.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic 86 product, 1995–2000 Part II. National perspectives on security in the Caspian Sea region 6. Russia’s national security interests in the Caspian region 119 Vitaly Naumkin I. Introduction 119 II. The southern direction of Russia’s national security 119 III. Russia’s interests 120 IV. Will the Caspian come to rival the Persian Gulf? 123 V. Is there a conflict of interests between Russia and the USA? 126 VI. Oil, development and security 128 VII. Russia’s Caspian policy becomes more active 132 7. US policy towards the Caspian region: can the wish-list be realized? 136 Amy Jaffe I. Introduction: the underpinning of US policy towards the 136 Caspian II. Oil as a driving factor: myths and realities 140 III. Natural gas: equal export troubles for US policy 144 IV. US strategic interests: what is at stake? 145 V. Russia and the USA: a cooperative framework? 147 VI. US policy change expected 147 VII. Conclusions 149 8. Turkey’s objectives in the Caspian region 151 Ali Karaosmanoglu I. Introduction 151 II. Energy and the economy 152 III. The environmental risks of oil transport 154 IV. The geopolitics of pipelines 156 C ONTENTS vii V. Cooperation with Russia 159 VI. Multilateralism and Western orientation 161 VII. Turkey’s internal and external constraints 163 VIII. Conclusions: future trends 164 9. The evolving security role of Iran in the Caspian region 166 Mehrdad M. Mohsenin I. Introduction 166 II. The legal status of the Caspian Sea 169 III. Oil and gas transport routes 171 IV. Iran’s policy in the Caspian Sea 173 10. Azerbaijan’s strategic choice in the Caspian region 178 Sabit Bagirov I. Introduction 178 II. Strengthening political and economic relations with the 179 West III. The policy of balanced relations with Russia, Turkey and 182 Iran IV. The delimitation of sea frontiers on the Caspian Sea 188 V. A diversified system of oil and gas pipelines 190 VI. Conclusions 194 11. The choice of independent Georgia 195 Alexander Rondeli I. Introduction 195 II. Recent political developments 197 III. Georgian foreign policy 200 IV. Georgia, Russia and the West 203 V. Georgia’s choice 208 VI. Conclusions 211 12. Kazakhstan’s security policy in the Caspian Sea region 212 Konstantin Syroezhkin I. The concept of national security 212 II. The development of a new balance of forces 215 III. Social and economic reforms in Kazakhstan as a 220 precondition of its national security IV. New challenges and new approaches 226 Table 12.1. Immigration to and emigration from Kazakhstan 223 13. Turkmenistan’s quest for economic security 231 Najia Badykova I. Introduction 231 II. The role of energy resources in the political and economic 231 security of Turkmenistan viii THE SECURITY OF THE CASPIAN SEA REGION III. The major competitors and partners of Turkmenistan 234 IV. The trans-Caspian gas pipeline 236 V. Existing pipelines 238 VI. The legal status of the Caspian Sea 241 VII. Conclusions 242 14. Turkmenistan and Central Asian regional security 244 Murad Esenov I. Introduction 244 II. The neutrality concept 245 III. The Taliban connection 246 IV. The reality of Turkmenistans’s neutrality 252 Part III. The changing conflict dynamics in the Caspian Sea region 15. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: its impact on security in the 257 Caspian region Dina Malysheva I. Introduction 257 II. The positions of the contending parties 259 III. The positions of the regional countries 264 IV. The stand of the Western countries 271 V. Attempts at mediation 273 VI. The danger of armed conflict 275 VII. Scenarios for conflict resolution 277 VIII. Conclusions 279 16. The Georgian–Abkhazian Conflict 281 Alexander Krylov I. Introduction 281 II. The post-war situation 286 III. The position of Russia 290 IV. The position of the West 292 V. Conclusions 294 17. The glitter and poverty of Chechen Islam 295 Aleksei Malashenko I. Introduction 295 II. The influence of Islam on events in Chechnya 296 III. The aims of the Chechen leaders in appealing to Islam 298 IV. The failure of the ‘Salafite project’ 304 V. External influences 308 C ONTENTS ix 18. Radical Islam as a threat to the security of the Central Asian 311 states: a view from Uzbekistan Farkhad Khamraev I. Introduction 311 II. Threats to security 313 III. The future of security relations in Central Asia 318 Part IV. Competition and cooperation in the Caspian Sea region 19. The Caspian Sea region: towards an unstable future 325 Gennady Chufrin I. Introduction 325 II. The regional states 325 III. Non-regional actors 331 IV. Global powers 336 V. Russian–US interaction in the Caspain region 341 Appendix. Chronology of defence and security-related declarations 345 and agreements involving the countries of the Caspian region, 1991–2001 Mark Eaton About the authors 358 Index 361 Preface This book is the result of a two-year SIPRI project on the Security of the Caspian Sea Region directed by Gennady Chufrin and launched after the completion of two previous studies which resulted in two books: Russia and Europe: The Emerging Security Agenda (Oxford University Press, 1997), edited by Vladimir Baranovsky; and Russia and Asia: The Emerging Security Agenda (Oxford University Press, 1999), edited by Gennady Chufrin.