VOLUME III a Strategic. Plan for the Sustainable Development of Woody
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MINISTRY Of ‘.'ifJfr.S AND ENERGY ETHIOPIAN ENERGY STUDIES AND RESEARCH CENTER VOLUME III A Strategic. Plan for the Sustainable Development of Woody Biomass Resources ' } \ (Draft) Prepared by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP) ' November 30, 1995 = m s J & 7 S /V B j S f ? 'i '/ MINISTRY o r MiNtS AND ENERGY MINISTRY Of- AGRICULTURE ETHIOPIAN ENERGY STUDIES AND RESEARCH CENTER VOLUME III A Strategic Plan for the Sustainable Development of Woody Biomass Resources (Draft) Prepared by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project fWBiSPP) " November 30, 1995 \ WOODY BIOMASS INVENTORY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING PROJECT 1 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION TO PLANNING OBJECTIVES II. NATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR PLANNING 2 1 General 2.2 The Natural Resource Base 4 2.3 The Natural Resource Sectors 5 THE PROJECT AREA 3 1 The Physical Environment ii 3.2 Land Use Systems ' 9 3.3 Socio-Cultural Aspects PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGMENT OF WOODY BIOMASS RESOURCES 4.1 Factors affecting the Production and Consumption c' Woody Biomass 3 ( 4.2 Planning Approach and Analytical Techniques 39 SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION OF WOODY BIOMASS AND OTHER BIO FUELS 5.1 Terminology 54 5.2 Methodology Used to Obtain Estimates of Woody Biomass Stocks and Yields 54 5.3 Supply Patterns of Woody Biomass 56 5 4 Consumption Patterns of Woody Biomass 57 5.5 Supply and Consumption Patterns of other Bio Fuels 61 5.6 Woody Biomass Supp’y and Consumption Balance? 52 VOLUME III. STRATEGIC PLAN Page ii \ \ WOODY BIOMASS INVENTORY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING PROJECT VI. ACHIEVING THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF WOODY BIOMASS RESOURCES IN THE PROJECT AREA 5 1 Analysis of Issues 64 6 2 The Potential for and Constraints to the Sustainable Development and Management of Woody Biomass Resources 80 Reducing the Demand for Woody Biomass 86 VII. STRATEGIC PLAN 1 A Multi Sectoral and Participatory Approach 88 Direct Strategies for the Sustainable Development and Conservation of Woody Biomass Resources 8S - Indirect Strategies for Sustainable Development of Woody Biomass Resources C",VO r 4 Reducing Demand for Woody Bjomass 97 REFERENCES 98 TABLES Table 2 1 Wood Products 1992/93 6 Tabie 2 2 Energy Supply in Ethiopia: 1984 7 Table 2 3 Energy Consumption - Pattern 1984 7 Table 3 1 Location and area of industrial plantations 32 Table 3 2 National Parks and other conservation areas 33 Table 3 3 Rural and urban population estimates 1995 35 Table 5 1 Woody biomass stocks and yields by region 1995 57 Table 5 2 Weighted mean annual per caput wood fuel consumption rates by region r c i ao>e : o Total wood fuel consumption by region 1995 59 Table 5 4 Annual rates of high forest clearing - by area -for agriculture by region for 1995. 2005 and 2015 60 VOLUME III. STRATEGIC PLAN Page ii WOODY BIOMASS INVENTORY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING PROJECT Table 5 5 Annual rates of high forest clearing - by weight - for agriculture by region for 1995, 2005 and 2015 61 Table 5.6 Annual rates of woody biomass consumption by weight for rural house construction by region for 1995, 2005 and 2015 61 Table 5.7 Total weight of agri residues and dung used as fuel by region. 1995 62 Table 5.8 Woody biomass supply ana consumption balances by region 63 Table 6 1 Woody Biomass Development Zones 6^ FIGURES - Figure 6.1 a Costs and revenues from European and North American forests 76 Figure 6.1 b Costs and revenues of tree oroduction strategies of peasant Farmers in Ethiopia 7 3 Figure 7 1 Nested rotation cycles for managing and harvesting trees on farms 9C Figure 7 2 Agricultural landscape and socio-ecological niches in the Kambata Zone of Souirern Ethiopia Peoples region END MAPS End map 1 Location of the project ares End map 2 Altitude End map 3 Mean annual rainfall End map 4 Temperature zones End map 5 Agro-Ecological zones End map 6 Land use and land cover End map 7 Farming and pastoral systems End map 8 National Forest Priority Areas End map 9 Crop suitability based on length of growing period End map 10 Crop risk based on length of growing period End map 11 Administrative boundaries End map 12 Population density End map 13 Rurai population support capacity End map 14 Livestock carrying capacity End map 15 Annual wood fuel consumption per caput: Rural population End map 16 Annual wood fuel consumption per caput: Urban population End map 17 Annual wood fuel consumption per caput: Total population End map 18 Woody biomass stocks: 1995 VOLUME III. STRATEGIC PLAN Page iv WOODY BIOMASS INVENTORY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING PROJECT End map 19 Sustainable yield of 1995 woody biomass stocks End map 20 Woody biomass supply-consumption balance: 1995 End map 21 Crop residues used as fuel End map 22 Dung used as fuel End map 23 Deforestation End map 24 Areas of environmental stress End map 25 Woody Biomass Development Zones APPENDIX 1 National Forest Priority Areas APPENDIX 2: Population Support Capacity Analysis APPENDIX 3. Livestock Carrying Capacity Analysis APPENDIX 4. Fuel Wood Supply Consumption Balances APPENDIX 5: Woody Biomass Development Zone Analysis VOLUME III. STRATEGIC PLAN Page v WOODY BIOMASS INVENTORY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING PROJECT | CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION TO PLANNING OBJECTIVES The population of Ethiopia (1995) currently estimated at 56 9 million is increasing at a rate of 2.9 percent per annum. Urbanization is relatively low. some 85 percent of the population live n the rural areas While 80 percent of the population is located in the Highlands (defined as all land over 1,500 masl) as settled agriculturalists the remaining population live the semi arid and arid eastern and southern Lowlands as pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, or as shifting cultivators in the moist western Lowlands Agriculture in the Highlands comprises mixed cropping and livestock production with cereals predominating in the Northern, Central and Eastern Highlands and enset and root crops in the Southern and Southwestern Highlands. With a rapidly increasing population, cultivation is expanding. More marginal and steep iands are increasingly being brought under cultivation, leading to accelerated soil erosion, and to declining and more variable crop yields. Expanding cultivation is at the expense of communal iands on which most woody biomass resources are located, leading to a decline in these resources Nationally, bio-fuels provide 93.5 percent of the total energy supplies with 77 percent derived from woody biomass, some 8.7 percent from crop residues and 7 7 percent from dung. However these national figures conceal considerable regional and local variations in both supply and consumption patterns, as well as temporal changes in these patterns in the face of declining stocks and yields of wood fuel, and the increasing opportunity and money costs in its collection or purchase. Given the well integrated nature of agriculture in the Highlands these changes have important implications for both crop and livestock production, as well for the health and nutrition of the population. Increasing use of dung precludes its use as manure , whilst the use of residues as fuel precludes their use as either livestock feed or.manure This leads in turn to breaches in the cycling of soil nutrients, in particular nitrogen ana phosphorous, leading in turn to declining soil fertility and thus declining crop yields. The key specific aim of the project1 is to "provide a means for dynamically monitoring and evaluating the physical changes in forested and treed ecosystems undergoing rapid change, providing feed back to planning and decision makers on the implementation of policy decisions towards, or indirectly influencing tree cover and the depletion of wood biomass.” The project was seen to provide a first opportunity for a detailed assessment of woody biomass resources in a selected area of some 250.000 km2 ^Contract Agreement between Government of Ethiopia and the Canadian Consortium. April 30th, 1990 VOLUME III. STRATEGIC PLAN Page 1 WOODY BIOMASS INVENTORY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING PROJECT and provide a strategic plan designed to ensure that these resources would be able to meet future industrial and energy needs, as well as countering the negative environmental effects of deforestation. The planning objectives are as follows: (i) to inventory the above ground woody biomass stock resources and determine the sustainable yields, (ii) to survey and gain an understanding of the consumption and use patterns of woody biomass and other bio-fuel substitutes, including an understanding of the agricultural production systems and rural economy which influence both the supply and consumption patterns, (iii) to identify the problems and issues with respect to the sustainable supply of woody biomass resources, and (iv) to formulate strategies and tactics for the sustainable development and conservation of woody biomass resources within the project area The Strategic Plan first sets out the national framework, in terms of the main natural resource sectors of the economy, followed by an outline description of the project area. Chapter IV examines, in general terms, the factors affecting woody biomass production and consumption, and they inter-relate. Given the nature and complexity of these production-consumption factors, an explanation is given of the planning approach which the project adopted, and a description of the main planning and analytical procedures used. Chapter V describes the main patterns of production and consumption of woody biomass and substitute bio-fuels within the project area. This followed in chapter VI by an analysis of the main issues which have been identified in the planning analysis,' and examines in detail the potential and constraints to sustainably developing and managing woody biomass resources in the project area. Finally a strategic plan is described detailing the main strategic and tactical approaches to dealing with specific problems and with specific areas.