FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECTS for Second Half of 2012 Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) August, 2012 Addis Ababa Ethiopia Table of Contents GLOSSARY (Local names) ............................................................................. 1 ACRONYMS .................................................................................................. 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................ 6 Seasonal Assessment Methodology – The Theory ....................................... 7 Seasonal Assessment Methodology – the practice ...................................... 8 REGIONAL SUMMARY OF FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT ................................... 10 1. SOMALI ............................................................................................... 10 2. OROMIA .............................................................................................. 14 3. SNNPR ................................................................................................ 16 4. AMHARA ............................................................................................. 18 5. TIGRAY ................................................................................................ 21 6. AFAR ................................................................................................... 23 Annex – 1 : NEEDY POPULATION AND FOOD REQUIREMENT BY WOREDA .............. 25 GLOSSARY (Local names) Azemera: Rains from Early March to early June (Tigray) Belg: Short rainy season from February/March to June/July (National) Birkads: Rain water harvesting cemented reservoirs (Somali Region) Deyr: Short rains from October to November (Somali Region) Gana Main rains from February to May ( (Borena and Guji zones) Gu: Main rains from March to June ( Somali Region) Karan : Short Rains from mid-July to September in the Northern zones of Somali region ( Jijiga and Shinile zones) Karma: Main rains from July to September (Afar Region) Kebele: The smallest administrative unit Meher: Main rains from June to September in crop dependent areas Sugum: Short rains between March and April (Afar region) Wereda: District, consisting of Kebele, which are the lowest administrative unit of the Government Tsidia: Rains from mid-June to end of September (Tigray) Zone: Administrative unit consisting of several weredas 1 ACRONYMS CRS: Catholic Relief Service CARE: CARE Ethiopia DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector DPFSB: Disaster Prevention and Food Security Bureau FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization GOAL: Irish NGO IMC: International Medical Corps LIU: Livelihood Integration Unit MoA: Ministry of Agriculture MoH: Ministry of Health MoWE: Ministry of Water and Energy NGOs: Non - Governmental Organizations PSNP: Productive Safety Net Program Reference Year: The year in which baseline data for Household Economy Approach (HEA) analysis is collected SC-UK: Save Children United Kingdom SNNPR: Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region UN: United Nations UN/OCHA: United Nation Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNICEF: United Nation International Children Fund WFP: World Food Program WHO: World Health Organization 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SOMALI The overall food security of the region has been stable and shown some improvements since the last deyr /karan season. Terms of trade is favorable for the pastoralists in areas of better access and supply of cereals. The near normal to normal gu rains also helped to improve pasture and water availability to sustain and improve the body conditions of livestock. Gu 2012 rains were near normal to normal contributing for regeneration of pasture and improving water availability in most parts of the region. Exception were most of Shinile in the north, southern woredas of Gode (Kelafo, Mustahil, and Ferfer), eastern parts of Warder (Danot, Geladi and Deradtolle), parts of Korahe (southern parts of Shilabo, south western parts of Dobewain, south and eastern parts of Shekosh, and south eastern parts of Kebridehar), Dolobay and Barie of Afder, and Dolo Ado of Liban which remained either dry or received much below normal rains during the season. In most of these areas, pasture and water resources have been depleted, early season internal livestock movements and needs for water trucking have been reported. While food security situation in most of the Somali region have slightly improved since the last deyr season, recovery from the previous consecutive dry season shocks has been weak. Milk production is currently declining due to low calving rate and expected to improve after 2 to 4 months’ time provided the next karan and deyr seasons are normal. Little or no crop harvests expected from the agro-pastoral and sedentary areas of Jijiga and the agro-pastoral areas of the southern seven zones as a result of the erratic nature of 2012 gu rains. Shinile zone will remain the worst affected followed by the southern districts of Gode zone, Dolobay of Afder, and Dolo Ado of Liban. Improvements are expected if the performance of the upcoming seasons is good, i.e., karan (Jul-Sep/2012) for Jijiga and Shinile and deyr (Oct-Nov/2012) for most parts of the southern seven zones. Therefore it is anticipated that the current food security status is likely to persist throughout the region and hence, 1,539,279 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2012 OROMIA In general, 2012 belg rains started late and withdrew earlier than normal in most belg benefiting areas of the Region. The erratic distribution and early withdrawal of the rains in most zones have led to huge failure of crops in some areas and significant crop damage in others. Overall crop production prospect in most zones rated as poor. In most belg benefiting zones, livestock physical condition was reported to be good, especially compared to same time last year. Exceptions were Dilo Woreda in Borena Zone, and some areas in East and West Hararghe, where below normal livestock physical condition, water shortages and decline in milk production reported. In general, the food security situation is deteriorating in many areas of the eight belg benefiting zones. This is due to a combination of factors which include: recurrent poor rainfall performance especially of the belg season, the 2012 poor production prospect of 3 the belg season, high food prices, and low livestock productivity in some areas as a result of poor previous seasons. As a result 1,017,023 people will require food assistance in the second half of 2012. Tigray The performance of belg 2012 rain was poor in all belg producing woredas. The onset of belg rain was late by almost one and half months (fourth week of March and first week of April) in four belg producing woredas (Alamta, Ofla, Raya Azobo, and Endamohonni). On the other hand, Alaje and Hintallo woredas received little or no rain during the season. The rain in Endamohonni also reported to be insignificant. As a result, except Ofla, where crop production is expected to be 24% of the planned; other woredas expected to have much below normal harvests compared to the planned and the reference year ( 2005 – 2006 ). On the other hand, the performance of upcoming meher planting is promising. The coverage of the very important long cycle crops in the lowland areas was good and production is expected starting November 2012. However taking into account the low meher crop production of last year and failure of the 2012 belg crops, emergency assistance is required for poor and very poor households in belg producing woredas. Therefore, 393,949 people are likely to require emergency assistance in the second half 2012. SNNPR Planting of belg crops was delayed from 6 to 8 weeks due to late onset of 2012 belg rains. Because of this, area planted reduced significantly as compared to last year; and belg crop production, which is normally harvested in July, is expected to be delayed and below average. Also, the green maize production which in normal circumstances is consumed in July and August will be delayed and reduced in amount. The failure of sweet potato harvest in 2012 has also exacerbated food insecurity in Welayta, Gamo Gofa, Kembata, Tembaro, and some areas of Hadiya zone. Food assistance through various programs to date has helped ease food shortages in the Region. However, due to the expected poor belg production, very high food prices compared to average, reduced availability and delay of green maize, reduced livestock productivity, and as well as cumulative impact of last year poor belg; food availability and access will be deteriorated between July and December. As a result, about 304,824 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2012. Amahra Belg producing woredas in Amhara Region are experiencing poor belg harvest in 2012. This will be the second such harvest in two successive years. The harvest should have started in June but because of delayed planting the harvest period will be pushed to August, extending the lean season by about two months. Even the expected harvest in August is unlikely to take many households, especially the poor and very poor, through the end of the current year. Food prices have continued to rise and are likely to keep increasing until the next meher harvest that begins from October/November. In connection with the below average belg rains, income from agricultural