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2013 China Auto Outlook 6 February 2013

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2013 China Auto Outlook 6 February 2013 China/Hong Kong China Auto 2013 China Auto Outlook 6 February 2013 Have money, will travel 10% passenger vehicle unit growth in 2013F. We see Valuations summary urbanization, rising disposal incomes and improvement Brilliance GWM DFM GAC Geely BYD in the domestic economy resulting in China passenger (1114 HK) (2333 HK) (489 HK) (2238 HK) (175 HK) (1211 HK) vehicle (PV) market growth of 10% YoY in 2013F. This Share price (HK$) 10.68 30.00 12.30 6.47 4.08 27.25 would represent a big improvement on 2012 which saw CCBI rating* O O N N O N 7% YoY unit sales growth according to China TP (HK$) 11.7 33.8 13.3 6.70 4.80 25.00 Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Upside (%) 10.0 12.7 8.1 3.5 17.6 (8.2) EPS, YoY (%) Luxury PVs still the sweet spot. Despite slowing FY12F 26.1 53.0 (23.8) (74.5) 23.2 (97.5) overall PV sales, China’s top-ten luxury vehicle brands FY13F 28.6 20.0 14.3 203.1 31.9 N/A recorded 37%/23% YoY growth in 2011/12. We are still P/E (x) positive on China’s luxury PV market because of the FY12F 19.3 13.2 10.9 29.6 14.1 N/A attractive price points of made-in-China luxury vehicles FY13F 14.6 10.7 9.2 9.5 10.4 32.6 and the growing affluence of Chinese consumers, P/B (x) especially within the country’s burgeoning middle class. FY12F 4.8 4.2 1.6 1.2 2.5 2.5 We look for 20% YoY growth for the top-ten luxury FY13F 3.5 3.4 1.4 1.0 2.0 2.2 vehicle makers in 2013F. Our top pick within the luxury Closing price on 6 February 2013 vehicle space remains Brilliance China (1114 HK, * CCBIS ratings: O = Outperform; N = Neutral; U = Underperform Outperform). Source: CCBIS estimates GWM and Geely stand out among own-brand vehicle manufacturers. In contrast to China’s comparatively sedate luxury vehicle market, competition among China’s domestic own-brand automakers is intense. Within the listed own-brand PV space, we like Great Wall Motor (GWM, 2333 HK, Outperform) and Geely Auto (175 HK, Outperform) based on their compelling model lineups and superior export capabilities. Following a recent stumble, BYD’s (1211 HK, Neutral) recovery continues; however, its valuation looks stretched. Recovery on track for Japanese JVs. We believe Dongfeng Motor Group (DFM, 489 HK, Neutral) and Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC, 2238 HK, Neutral) will continue to recover from their 4Q12 troughs, and we anticipate monthly sales will improve in 1Q13F. Yet the mid-end PV space remains precarious due to price competition among the local US, European and Korean Ronnie Ho JVs. Of the two, we prefer DFM over GAC on the (852) 2533 2486 former’s solid track record and better model lineup. [email protected] Brilliance and Geely our preferred plays. We like Candy Tai Brilliance on its BMW PRC growth story and expect its (852) 2844 3606 [email protected] luxury vehicle segment to continue to outperform the general PV market over the next two years. We also like Ke Qu Geely Auto for its improving SUV model lineup and (852) 2844 3601 export opportunities. [email protected] Please read the analyst certification and other important disclosures on last page 2013 China Auto Outlook 6 February 2013 China vehicle sector valuation matrix CCBIS Share price* Market cap EPS growth (%) P/E (x) Company Stock code rating (HK$) (US$m) FY12F FY13F FY14F FY12F FY13F FY14F Passenger vehicle manufacturers Dongfeng Group 489 HK Neutral 12.30 13,622 (23.8) 14.3 11.7 10.9 9.2 8.2 Great Wall Motor 2333 HK Outperform 30.00 12,817 53.0 20.0 16.9 13.2 10.7 8.9 BYD Company 1211 HK Neutral 27.25 8,754 (97.5) N/A 44.8 N/A 32.6 22.1 Brilliance China 1114 HK Outperform 10.68 6,899 26.1 28.6 34.8 19.3 14.6 10.6 GAC Group 2238 HK Neutral 6.47 6,364 (74.5) 203.1 41.1 29.6 9.5 6.5 Geely Auto 175 HK Outperform 4.08 4,333 23.2 31.9 14.5 14.1 10.4 8.9 Average 17.4 14.5 10.9 Commercial vehicle manufacturers Weichai Power 2338 HK Not Rated 33.6 8,560 (34.7) 20.6 9.3 15.1 12.5 11.4 Sinotruk 3808 HK Not Rated 5.6 1,994 (53.1) 67.5 29.0 N/A 26.4 20.5 Qingling Motors 1122 HK Not Rated 2.11 673 (9.3) 21.3 9.1 13.6 11.2 10.3 Average 14.3 16.7 14.1 Auto dealerships Zhongsheng 881 HK Not Rated 13.02 3,194 (29.6) 72.0 28.5 20.5 11.9 9.3 Baoxin Auto 1293 HK Not Rated 8.55 2,810 24.4 69.3 33.6 20.9 12.3 9.2 DCH 1828 HK Not Rated 9.13 2,147 2.2 12.9 19.7 12.3 10.9 9.1 Zhengtong Auto 1728 HK Outperform 7 1,988 20.9 53.5 38.0 18.5 11.7 8.4 Yongda 3669 HK Not Rated 8.73 1,661 N/A 39.4 36.6 19.0 13.6 10.0 Average 18.2 12.1 9.2 Auto and related components Xinyi Glass 868 HK Not Rated 5.19 2,525 (12.7) 43.0 13.7 16.9 11.8 10.4 Johnson Electric 179 HK Not Rated 5.32 2,453 (1.2) 11.8 5.3 13.5 12.1 11.5 Minth Group 425 HK Not Rated 11.42 1,582 7.5 14.5 9.5 11.9 10.4 9.5 Xingda International 1899 HK Not Rated 3.52 690 (26.3) 30.2 20.2 14.3 11.0 9.1 Average 14.2 11.3 10.1 Closing price as of 6 February 2013 Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS estimates 2 2013 China Auto Outlook 6 February 2013 We like Brilliance and Geely our preferred plays within the Hong Kong-listed PV space We continue to like the PRC automobile growth story because of the current low vehicle penetration of the market, rapid urbanization, rising disposal incomes, and the government’s strategic support for the domestic automobile industry. However, downside risks remain, as policy risk and the uncertain macro environment may put the brakes on overall growth in 2013/14F. Brilliance China (1114 HK, Outperform) benefiting from the PRC BMW growth story. Brilliance, BMW’s PRC JV partner, is a good proxy for investing in China’s burgeoning luxury vehicle market based on 40%/38% YoY growth in Brilliance-BMW sales in FY13/14F. BMW cars have had excellent traction with Chinese consumers in the market for luxury cars, which bodes well for the company’s future growth. Geely Auto (175 HK, Outperform) riding surging SUV and export growth. Geely has been busy developing manufacturing technologies through in-house innovation and overseas acquisitions. It is now rolling out a new multi-brand strategy to cater to different customer segments. We like the company’s robust model lineupin FY13/14F and superior traction in export sales. It is in good position to ride the recovery in the domestic PV market and growth opportunities in developing countries. Great Wall Motor (GWM, 2333 HK, Outperform) a superior SUV brand in China. GWM is an emerging Chinese vehicle maker offering a wide range of vehicles in various product categories. We like the company’s leadership in SUVs and its new SUV model lineup for FY13/14F, especially the Haval H2/H5/H6/H8. GWM’s existing and still competitive models are being sold to both the domestic and export markets and will, we believe, help GWM deliver solid EPS growth in FY13/14F. BYD (1211 HK, Neutral) slowly coming back to life. BYD experienced a difficult FY11/12 due to its over-ambitious across-the-board production capacity expansion and inefficient PV channel management. Nevertheless, the stars are beginning to align for BYD as we note (1) improving operating performance for its PV division, (2) a narrowing loss from its solar division, (3) good traction in new energy vehicle sales, notably sales of its plug-in hybrid (“Qing”), E-taxi (“E6”) and E-bus (“K9’), coupled with (4) favorable government subsidies and support from local governments; all of which will serve to beef up sales in FY13F/14F. Dongfeng Group (DFM, 489 HK, Neutral) recovery on track. DFM, with its three JVs – Nissan (7201 JP, Not Rated), PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG FP, Not Rated) and Honda (7267 JP, Not Rated) – is one of China’s largest automobile manufacturers. Following a dip in sales in 2H12 stemming from the Diaoyu Island dispute, DFM-Honda and DFM-Nissan have slowly recovered from their trough in October 2012. However, the mid-end PV space is still fraught with risk due to price competition among local US, European and Korean JVs. Despite this, DFM remains one of China’s better leading vehicle makers. 3 2013 China Auto Outlook 6 February 2013 Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC, 2238 HK, Neutral) betting on its new Fiat and Mitsubishi JVs. Despite the continuing recovery from the 4Q12 trough by GAC’s Japanese JVs, we believe the medium-term performance of GAC-Honda and GAC-Toyota will be dragged down by the company’s once-popular but now ageing models.
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