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Emissions Trading and Innovation in the German Electricity Industry

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Emissions Trading and Innovation in the German Electricity Industry Emissions Trading and Innovation in the German Electricity Industry Vorgelegt von Dipl. Volkswirt Martin Cames aus Berlin Von der Fakultät VII - Wirtschaft & Management der Technischen Universität Berlin zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften Dr. rer. oec. Genehmigte Dissertation Promotionsausschuss: Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen Berichter: Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Georg Meran Berichter: Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Olav Hohmeyer Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 30.10.2009 Berlin 2010 D 83 Martin Cames Emissions Trading and Innovation Acknowledgements This thesis was written within the scope of the project “Transformation and Innovation in Power Systems” (TIPS – http://www.tips-project.de). Financial support of the TIPS project from the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) in the framework of socio-ecological research (Sozialökologische Forschung) is gratefully acknowledged. The thesis would also not have been possible without the support and help of many people. It substantially benefited from fruitful discussions with my colleagues in the TIPS project – Dierk Bauknecht, Corinna Fischer, Martin Pehnt, Barbara Praetorius, Katja Schumacher, Lambert Schneider and Jan-Peter Voss – and their constructive comments on earlier drafts of the thesis. I also would like to thank my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Georg Meran, for his supportive feedback and inspiration concerning various presentations of this work. In addition, I’m grateful to my second supervisor, Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer, for his valuable comments and suggestions throughout the process. Further thanks go to Frank Gagelmann, Felix Chr. Matthes, Marianne Walther von Loe- benstein and Anke Weidlich who were so often available for inspiring discussions on different aspects of the dissertation topic, to Johanna Cludius, Katherina Grashof, Sebastian Knab, Sibyl Steuwer, Stephan Soll and Johannes Wolff for their support on data and technical issues and to Vanessa Cook who considerably improved the read- ability of this dissertation. Any remaining errors and shortcomings are my own respon- sibility. Special thanks go to Sandra Aranda, Bettina Braun, Barthel Cames, Lilli Cames, Johanna Erdmann, Karl Köckenberger, Gabi Müller, Jean Peters and John Völker who backed me at home while I was working on this thesis. Last but not least I would like to thank Christine Ziegler who had to endure me during work on this thesis and never failed to motivate me time and again. I dedicate this the- sis to her. 3 Martin Cames Emissions Trading and Innovation 4 Martin Cames Emissions Trading and Innovation Executive Summary One major objective of the introduction of emissions trading in the European Union was to promote innovation towards mitigating climate change. Focusing on the German electricity industry, the extent to which this objective has been achieved up to now and how the design of the trading scheme could be improved towards achieving the in- tended objective shall be analyzed in this thesis. These questions are tackled in the thesis from a theoretical and an empirical perspec- tive. The theoretical analysis was largely based on neoclassical environmental eco- nomics by using an algebraic model which allowed for comparison of the relevant com- panies’ profits under various configurations of the analyzed design options. The empiri- cal analysis was grounded on two surveys of the electricity industry – one before the start of emissions trading, the other after two and a half years of experience – which enabled identification of the concrete changes in the companies’ perceptions and atti- tudes towards innovation due to the introduction of emissions trading. The analysis reveals some indications that the instrument has basically functioned as originally intended although it has certainly not yet developed its full potential in terms of promoting innovation towards a more climate friendly electricity system. From an environmental innovation perspective the following improvements are essential: 1) Clo- sure provisions should be abolished as soon as possible because they basically extend the lifetime of old installations and thus rather delay innovation. 2) Fuel-specific alloca- tion to new entrants should also be abandoned since it eliminates – at least partly – the incentives to shift investments towards technologies which use more carbon friendly fuels such as natural gas or biomass. 3) Introducing full auctioning for the electricity industry would remedy both of the above-mentioned weaknesses and at the same time eliminate the windfall profit generated by free allocation of allowances. 4) Innovation incentives could also be enhanced by improving the investment stability. For this pur- pose several commitment periods should be agreed in advance so that investors al- ways have a clear perspective of at least 15 to 20 years. The draft directive for the review of the EU ETS presented by the Commission in Janu- ary 2008 has already taken on board some of these suggestions, most notably the transition from free allocation to auctioning, which should be the rule for the entire elec- tricity industry from 2013 onwards. It can be expected that the innovation incentives of the EU ETS will be boosted considerably after the Council of Ministers and the Euro- pean Parliament agreed upon the amendment of the EU ETS Directive in December 2008. JEL Classification: O31, O33, Q48, Q54, Q55, Q58, Y40 Key words: Climate policy, emissions trading, allocation, new entrants, clo- sure rules, banking, electricity industry, innovation, technologi- cal change, Europe, Germany 5 Martin Cames Emissions Trading and Innovation 6 Martin Cames Emissions Trading and Innovation Contents 1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 13 1.1 Motivation .................................................................................................................. 13 1.2 Background ............................................................................................................... 13 1.3 Hypothesis................................................................................................................. 16 1.4 Approach ................................................................................................................... 17 2 Innovation – concept and perception.............................................................................. 19 2.1 Innovation in economic theory................................................................................... 19 2.1.1 Autonomous innovation versus induced technical progress ........................ 20 2.1.2 Market forms and innovation incentives ....................................................... 22 2.1.3 Evolutionary concepts of innovation............................................................. 24 2.2 A broad concept of innovation................................................................................... 26 2.3 Innovation in the electricity industry .......................................................................... 28 2.3.1 Differences to the innovation processes of other industries......................... 29 2.3.2 From integrated innovation to divided responsibility .................................... 31 2.3.3 Indicators of innovation................................................................................. 34 2.3.4 Strategies to establish innovations............................................................... 44 2.4 Outlook – approaches and understanding ................................................................ 46 3 Emissions trading – design options and innovation incentives .................................. 50 3.1 Concept of emissions trading.................................................................................... 50 3.1.1 History and genesis ...................................................................................... 51 3.1.2 Innovation and advantages .......................................................................... 53 3.1.3 Incidence and acceptance............................................................................ 59 3.2 EU Emissions Trading Scheme................................................................................. 60 3.2.1 Emergence and motives............................................................................... 60 3.2.2 Framework and structure.............................................................................. 63 3.2.3 Effects and impacts ...................................................................................... 66 3.2.4 Adoption and advancement.......................................................................... 67 3.3 Innovation incentives................................................................................................. 70 3.3.1 Cap ............................................................................................................... 71 3.3.2 Allocation ...................................................................................................... 73 3.3.3 Framework and time plan ............................................................................. 99 3.3.4 Banking....................................................................................................... 103 3.4 Conclusions............................................................................................................. 106 4 Electricity industry
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