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Mitigation Commitments and Fair Effort Sharing in a New Comprehensive Climate Agreement Starting 2020

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Mitigation Commitments and Fair Effort Sharing in a New Comprehensive Climate Agreement Starting 2020 Mitigation Commitments and Fair Effort Sharing in a New Comprehensive Climate Agreement Starting 2020 Andrzej Ancygier, Jasmin Cantzler, Hanna Fekete, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Höhne, Daniel Kandy, Antje Kästner, Jan Kersting, Anja Köhne, Marie Lindberg, Florian Mersmann, Wolfgang Obergassel, Anne Siemons, Katja Schumacher, Hanna Wang-Helmreich, Timon Wehnert November 2015 Mitigation Commitments and Fair Effort Sharing in a New Comprehensive Climate Agreement Starting 2020 The contents of this report are based on research conducted in the framework of the project „Minder- ungsverpflichtungen und faire Lastenteilung in einem neuen umfassenden Klimaschutzabkommen ab 2020", conducted on behalf of the German Federal Environment Agency, FKZ: 3713 41 102. The views expressed in this paper are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the oPinion of the German Federal Environment Agency, nor of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety. Contact Katja Eisbrenner, [email protected] Ecofys, Am Wassermann 36, 50829 Köln, Germany Andrzej Ancygier, [email protected] Climate Analytics, Friedrichstr. 231 - Haus B, 10969 Berlin, Germany Jan Kersting, [email protected] Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Str. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany Niklas Höhne, [email protected] NewClimate Institute, Am Hof 20-26, 50667 Köln, Germany Anne Siemons, [email protected] Oeko-Institut, Schicklerstraße 5-7, 10179 Berlin, Germany Wolfgang Obergassel, [email protected] WuPPertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy, DöPPersberg 19, 42103 WuPPertal, Germany 2 Mitigation Commitments and Fair Effort Sharing in a New Comprehensive Climate Agreement Starting 2020 Table of Content 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 2. Scope and method of the analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 5 3. Brazil ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 4. China ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 5. European Union ...................................................................................................................................................................... 11 6. India ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 7. JaPan ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 8. Mexico ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 9. Morocco ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 10. Russia ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 11. South Africa ............................................................................................................................................................................ 23 12. United States of America .................................................................................................................................................. 25 Annex 1 – Full country chapters ........................................................................................................................................... 27 Annex 2 - Method for calculation of “fair shares” ....................................................................................................... 161 Annex 3 - Project specific assumptions ........................................................................................................................... 166 Annex 4 - Calculation of mitigation Potentials ............................................................................................................. 170 Annex 5 - Combining Effort Sharing with Mitigation Potential ............................................................................ 176 Annex 6 - Results of the delayed scenario for calculating fair shares and Potentials ................................. 177 BibliograPhy ................................................................................................................................................................................ 184 List of Figures Table 1: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for Brazil ...................................... 8 Table 2: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for China ..................................... 10 Table 3: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for the EU ................................... 12 Table 4: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for India ...................................... 14 Table 5: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for Japan ..................................... 16 Table 6: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for Mexico .................................. 18 Table 7: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for Morocco ............................... 20 Table 8: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for Russia ................................... 22 Table 9: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for South Africa ....................... 23 Table 10: Comparison of INDC with Results for Effort Sharing Calculations for the USA .............................. 26 3 Mitigation Commitments and Fair Effort Sharing in a New Comprehensive Climate Agreement Starting 2020 1. Introduction The international community is in the process of developing a new climate agreement, to be adopted at the Paris Conference in December 2015 and to be apPlied starting in 2020. Countries’ mitigation contributions are one central element in the negotiations. By the end of October 2015, 128 Parties had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs), reflecting 155 countries (in- cluding the EuroPean Union member states), and covering around 87% of global emissions in 2010 (excluding LULUCF) and 88% of global PoPulation. Ever since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed upon, the level of ambition as well as the fair balance between Parties has been the linchpin of negotiations. The Ad Hoc Working GrouP on the Durban Platform (ADP) again revolves around these questions: Can negotia- tions ensure that aggregate action by Parties suffices to achieve the jointly agreed goal to limit warm- ing below 2°C – or even 1.5°C as called for by the most vulnerable countries, in light of current science? How can a fair and equitable distribution of effort be enshrined in the agreement? How to move for- ward action on mitigation and adaPtion, and reconcile this with the Pursuit of countries’ development asPirations and needs? To keep global warming to below a 2°C increase above preindustrial levels, as is the accepted goal in- ternationally, the urgency and timing of mitigation is critical. The last Assessment RePort by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) included a calculation of Permissible levels of emissions which allow a reasonable chance of staying below 2°C. For a more than 2/3 Probability of staying be- low 2°C, cumulative emissions since the Period 1861-1880 would need to stay below 1000 GtC. This "carbon budget" is reduced to 800 GtC once non-CO2 forcing is accounted for. By 2011, already over 530 GtC has been emitted. Thus, only a third of the carbon budget is still available. A steeP decrease of emissions throughout the 21st century is required to achieve the above mentioned goals (IPCC, 2013). So far, climate Policy has not sufficiently resPonded to the challenge. For examPle, a second commit- ment Period under the Kyoto Protocol was agreed uPon in 2012, but only a minor number of industri- alized countries committed to these binding 2020 targets - the EU, and some smaller countries (Doha Amendment, 2012). Later agreements under the CoPenhagen Accord and the Cancún Agreements in- cluded a more comprehensive set of countries, but the aggregate Pledges will not Provide sufficient emission reductions to limit global warming to below 2˚C. The 2014 UNEP GaP report reiterated that the gaP between Pledges and Pathways consistent with 2˚C is not being closed and remains at a high 14-17 GtCO2-eq for 2030 only (UNEP, 2014). While the Process of INDC submissions showed that most countries are to some extent willing to con- tribute to climate
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