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Transforming America's Military 00 Covers 10/11/02 4:21 PM Page 1 TRANSFORMING MILITARY TRANSFORMING AMERICA’S AMERICA’S MILITARY edited and with an introduction by Hans Binnendijk, with TRANSFORMING contributions from: Charles L. Barry • Paul K. Davis AME R I CA’S Michèle A. Flournoy • Norman Friedman Jacques S. Gansler • Thomas C. Hone Richard L. Kugler • Douglas A. Macgregor MI LITARY Thomas L. McNaugher • Mark L. Montroll Bruce R. Nardulli • Paul M. Needham David A. Ochmanek • William D. O’Neil Stephen P. Randolph • Richard D. Sokolsky Sam J. Tangredi • Bing West Peter A. Wilson edited by Hans Binnendijk BINNENDIJK Center for Technology and National Security Policy The National Defense University (NDU) established the Center for Technology and National Security Policy in June 2001 to study the implications of technological innovation for U.S. national security policy and military planning. The center combines scientific and technical assessments with analyses of current strategic and defense policy issues. Its major initial areas of focus include: (1) technologies and concepts that encourage and/or enable the transformation of the Armed Forces, (2) developments by defense laboratories, (3) investments in research, development, and acquisition and improvements to their processes, (4) relationships among the Department of Defense, the industrial sector, and academe, and (5) social science techniques that enhance the detection and prevention of conflict. The staff is led by two senior analysts who hold the Roosevelt Chair of National Security Policy and the A PUBLICATION OF THE Edison Chair of Science and Technology and who can call on the expertise of the NDU community and CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY colleagues at institutions nationwide. NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY Cover 1 Cover 4 Score covers 1 and 4 no greater than 3/16” from the bind Transforming America’s Military Transforming America’s Military edited by Hans Binnendijk NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2002 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Transforming America’s military / Hans Binnendijk, editor. p.cm. ISBN 1–57906–057–9 1. United States—Armed Forces—Reorganization. I. Binnendijk, Hans. UA23 .T69 2002 355.3’0973—dc21 2002074294 First Printing, August 2002 NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering infor- mation, call (202) 512–1800 or write to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO publications on-line access their Web site at: http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/sale.html. For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, consult the National Defense University Web site at: http://www.ndu.edu. DEDICATION In memory of Annette Lucia Binnendijk Contents Introduction.............................. xvii Hans Binnendijk Part I—Foundations of Transformation Chapter 1 Assessing New Missions .................... 3 Sam J. Tangredi Chapter 2 Harnessing New Technologies .............. 31 Thomas C. Hone and Norman Friedman Chapter 3 Choosing a Strategy ....................... 57 Richard L. Kugler and Hans Binnendijk Part II—Transforming the Services Chapter 4 The Army: Toward the Objective Force....... 101 Bruce R. Nardulli and Thomas L. McNaugher ix x TRANSFORMING AMERICA‘S MILITARY Chapter 5 The Naval Services: Network-Centric Warfare .................................. 129 William D. O’Neil (with appendix by Bing West) Chapter 6 The Air Force: The Next Round ............. 159 David A. Ochmanek Part III—Coordinating Transformed Military Operations Chapter 7 Integrating Transformation Programs........ 193 Paul K. Davis Chapter 8 Transforming Jointly....................... 219 Douglas A. Macgregor Chapter 9 Coordinating with NATO .................. 231 Charles L. Barry Part IV—Broader Aspects of Transformation Chapter 10 Strengthening Homeland Security ........... 261 Michèle A. Flournoy Chapter 11 Changing the Strategic Equation ............ 283 Peter A. Wilson and Richard D. Sokolsky CONTENTS xi Chapter 12 Controlling Space ......................... 309 Stephen P. Randolph Chapter 13 Protecting Cyberspace ..................... 331 Jacques S. Gansler Chapter 14 Maintaining the Technological Lead ......... 345 Mark L. Montroll Chapter 15 Getting There: Focused Logistics ............ 371 Paul M. Needham About the Authors......................... 391 Illustrations Tables 1–1. National Security Interests and Politico-Military Objectives ..... 17 1–2. Survival Interests ............................... 18 1–3. Vital/World Order Interests ......................... 20 1–4. Value Interests ................................. 25 2–1. Notional U.S. Projections in 1920 of Transformational U.S. Military Technologies .......................... 38 2–2. Transformational Technologies: World War I, World War II, Cold War .................................... 40 2–3. Transformational Technologies (by Military Tasks) ........... 44 2–4. Transformational Technologies across Time ............... 48 3–1. Components of Defense Transformation ................. 61 3–2. Ten New Operational Concepts for Building and Employing Transformed Forces .............................. 84 7–1. Differences between Planning for Era A and Era B ........... 195 7–2. Illustrative Questions and Concerns Raised by the List of Principles .................................. 203 7–3. Proposed Set of Operational Challenges for Projection Forces ...................................... 208 9–1. Defense Spending as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product ..................................... 235 9–2. Most Capable NATO Armor......................... 240 9–3. Most Capable NATO Indirect Fire Systems ................ 241 9–4. Most Capable NATO Aircraft ........................ 242 xii ILLUSTRATIONS xiii 9–5. Key NATO Support Aircraft and Satellites ................ 244 9–6. Most Modern NATO Naval Capabilities.................. 245 9–7. Select Major Defense Investment Programs in Europe: Program, Participating Powers, Forecast Operational Date, Remarks ................................. 250 Figures 1–1. The Spectrum-of-Conflict Model ..................... 10 4–1. The Army Transformation .......................... 109 6–1. Improvements in Airpower Ability to Destroy Moving Armor ................................. 167 7–1. Planning Eras and the Buildup of New Dangers ............. 194 7–2. A Spectrum of Approaches to Reengineering .............. 196 7–3. Illustrative Components of an Operational Challenge ......... 209 7–4. Secretary of Defense Role in the Program Process............ 210 7–5. Process of Mission-System Analysis .................... 211 9–1. Modernization Spending as Percentage of Defense Spending, 2000................................. 249 14–1. U.S. Defense Aerospace Industry Consolidation, 1980–1997 ..... 354 Acknowledgments t has taken a team to produce this volume. First, I thank the authors of each chapter for their willingness to meet with me many times to dis- Icuss the evolution of this book and their contributions to it. Second, I thank Richard L. Kugler for his conceptual contributions to the overall structure of the book and to many of its core arguments. Another mem- ber of the team was Major John Davis, USAF, who helped orchestrate the authors and managed the draft chapters. Next, a special thanks goes to Teresa J. Lawson, who edited each chapter and provided invaluable advice as the book matured. Thanks also go to Leigh Caraher and Gina Cordero, who helped me proofread the final manuscript. Finally, thanks are due to the editorial staff of National Defense Uni- versity Press—General Editor William R. Bode and editors George C. Maerz, Lisa M. Yambrick, and Jeffrey D. Smotherman—who brought this publication to completion under the supervision of Robert A. Silano, Director of Publications. xv Introduction Hans Binnendijk ilitary transformation is the act of creating and harnessing a revolution in military affairs. It requires developing new tech- Mnologies, operational concepts, and organizational structures to conduct war in dramatically new ways. The United States is undertaking such a transformation to tackle its 21st century missions. A properly trans- formed military can develop significant advantages over a potential enemy. But the process also introduces risks that, if not properly managed, could dangerously undermine military capability. This book, therefore, sets out the arguments for a purposeful and measured transformation that relies on sound experimentation as the basis for change, rather than the riskier strategy, proposed by some, of skipping a generation of technology. We argue that change must tie all of the services together in joint transformation efforts. Similarly, we must not neglect our coalition partners. A successful transformation will be one that has been conceived broadly to include homeland defense, space, cyber- space, and, though they may seem mundane, crucial reforms in weapons procurement and logistics. Historically, revolutions in military affairs have had a powerful im- pact
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