Redesigning the forest economy in Ontario’s Northeast Superior Region Acknowledgements Ecotrust Canada recognizes the Northeast Superior Regional Chiefs Forum* and Elders’ Council for their leadership in exploring the possibility to move the region to a conservation economy. We are thankful for the opportunity to work on such an innovative initiative in support of not only a triple-bottom-line economy but also of the vision where First Nations, industry, and municipalities collaborate towards a prosperous future. We would very like to thank the regional staff of Tembec, Inc. and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Both provided data, analyses, advice, and peer review to support the development of the scenarios presented in this report. Ecotrust Canada acknowledges the professional advice and peer review offered by Professor Shashi Kant (University of Toronto) and Professor David Robinson (Laurentian University), as well as the economic opportunity reports prepared for eco-tourism by Doug Reynolds (formerly of Nature and Outdoor Tourism Ontario), for non-timber forest products by Tim Bringham (Royal Roads University), and for value-added housing by Carole Blaquiere (FPInnovations). We thank Natural Resources Canada for their foresight in funding this seminal work to facilitate regional discusssion. e beautiful photos in this report were taken by Kari Luhtasaari of Chapleau. * Chapleau Cree First Nation, Missanabie Cree First Nation, Michipicoten First Nation, and Hornepayne First Nation ...Reclaim the rightful place of our member communities as land stewards and equal partners within Canada’s constitutional fabric, starting with the Chapleau Crown Game Preserve (CCGP) and spreading elsewhere within the territory as opportunities arise... - Northeast Superior Regional Chiefs Forum Vision Statement In 2014, the Northeast Superior Regional Chiefs Forum commissioned two parallel reports from Ecotrust Canada: this one, which provides scenarios for future forest management, and a sister report that assesses the human resource and economic development services available in the region. Together, these reports offer a glimpse of the opportunities that exist to redesign these local and regional economies for triple-bottom-line results, balancing social/cultural, financial, and environmental interests and needs. e Chiefs Forum has adopted Ecotrust Canada’s language – building a conservation economy – as a way to express the principles of good work, strong cultures, and healthy ecologies as the desired outcomes of a deliberately reorganized economy. is book is intended to paint a picture of what COULD be – encouraging dialogue around how the Region might achieve sound, diversified, long-term, triple-bottom-line results, by asking the simple question... what if ? Forest e Forest Tenure Modernization Act Tenure was introduced in 2011 to “improve the economic benefits of forestry by increasing flexibility and responsiveness to rapidly changing economic Reform circumstances.” A grand and important social, ecological, cultural, e Act is intended to: and economic experiment include adjacent communities in the management of their forest resources expand the direct and indirect benefits of timber harvesting offer economic development opportunities for Aboriginal peoples. of Ontario’s 71 million hectares of 80% forested land is publicly owned. For decades, the Province has managed these resources on behalf of its citizens by issuing harvest licenses and allocating fiber supply in return for good forest management and job creation. New forest management entities that include Aborigina, community, and industry representation – Local Forest Management Corporations (LFMCs) and Enhanced Sustainable Forest Licences (ESFLs) – will receive long-term, area-based licences to both manage and harvest. Chapleau Crown Game Preserve is a 7,000 km² area in the heart of the NE Superior Region and was designated as a Game Preserve in 1925. It is the homeland of the Ojibwa and Cree people of Northern Ontario, where they would not only hunt and fish, but had a rich culture and relationship to the landscape. Several sites with pictographs still testify to their regular use of the land for sustenance and cultural practices. e Chiefs Forum is particularly interested in understanding how this area might become a model site for a triple bottom line economy as forest tenure reform is implemented. e Northeast Superior Region is an ESFL pilot area. Regional municipalities, forest companies, and First Nations have begun to talk in earnest about how they might use this pilot to maximize opportunities and to strengthen their economy. How could the Northeast Superior Region manage forestland resources and investments to improve economic, social, and ecological results? To answer this question, we used the region’s data to explore three scenarios and ask... Intensive Forest Management What if parts of tenures were managed intensively, through increased investment in silviculture, to achieve the same harvest levels on less land? Non-Timber Forest Products What if spatial and temporal planning allowed 1% of the managed forest area to be used for mushroom and berry production? Value-Added Forestry What if the Region achieved a higher value per board foot of timber from harvests on 1% of the managed land by establishing value-added product businesses? What if parts of tenures were managed intensively, through increased investment in silviculture, to achieve the same harvest levels on less land? Should a change in forest policy, At Year 60, 10% of the managed increased silviculture investment, forestlands would become available and new management prescriptions for alternative uses. With advance allow for a more intensive approach planning, capacity building, and (growing more volume on less land), targeted investment, this ‘freed up’ the long-term outlook for harvest land could begin to significantly alter revenues and ecological indicators is local economic conditions over the promising. subsequent 100 year period. Compared to a scenario in which the Assuming that national climate status quo was maintained for the policy will strengthen over this next 150 years, Intensive Forest timeframe, Intensive Forest Management would almost Management could also potentially immediately result in some create a revenue stream from carbon increased economic activity as a sequestration if structured with this consequence of increased intention from the outset. silviculture investment, including more jobs and higher revenues to the Crown. Intensive Forest Management 10,000 Change in Harvested Area 9,500 Intensive Forest Management vs. Business as Usual Business as Usual 9,000 After Year 80, there would be a 8,500 gradual reduction in the amount of land required to harvest the same Intensive Forest 8,000 volume of timber as the region Management achieves today. 7,500 Annual Harvest Area (hectares) By Year 150, approximately 7,000 1,000-1,500 hectares of land would be available for alternative economic Years after Plan Implementation uses and/or for protection. Harvest Area Projections s $1.4 5% e Changes in Silviculture Investments r u t i and Associated Revenues over Time d $1.2 n e Revenue per 4% p Comparing Intensive Forest Management x harvested hectare E $1.0 with the Business as Usual Baseline e r u 3% t l $0.8 u c i v Silviculture investments would l i $0.6 2% S increase by an average of $1 million l a n per year in the first 40 years, then o $0.4 Silviculture i t i expenditures 1% by an average of $350,000 per year d d A $0.2 for the remainder of the 150 years. l Percent Change in Revenue ($/ha) a t 0% o T $0.0 Revenues per hectare would remain largely the same under Integrated Years after Plan Implementation -1% Forest Management as they would under Business as Usual until Year 80, at which point they would increase by an average of 2.2% each year. $56 Difference in Total Revenue Business as Usual $54 Intensive Forest Management vs. Business as Usual $52 Timber harvest and associated $50 revenues over 150 years would be Intensive Forest slightly lower under Intensive Forest Management $48 Management, earning on average 1.2% less per year compared to a $46 continuation of Business as Usual. Estimated Revenue (millions $) $44 Years after Plan Implementation Revenue Projections 580 Difference in Total Employment 560 Intensive Forest Management vs. Business as Usual Business as Usual 540 520 Intensive Forest Management would increase employment, particularly in 500 silviculture. Intensive Forest Management 480 e number of silviculture jobs would increase by 10-20% annually for the 460 Estimated Number of Total Jobs first 80 years, then 7% annually for 440 the remaining 70 years. Years after Plan Implementation Jobs in the logging sector would remain largely the same for the first 80 years, then experience an annual decline of 2%. Employment Projections 100% Browse Habitat (IFM) Changes in Moose Habitat Wintering Habitat (IFM) 95% Browse Habitat (BAU) Intensive Forest Management vs. Wintering Habitat (BAU) 90% Business as Usual 85% Under the Intensive Forest Managment (IFM) scenario, the 80% preferred browse and late winter 75% habitat for moose is maintained above 70% of natural benchmark 70% levels. e graph at right compares levels of habitat availabile under 65% Percent of FMP Ecological Target Achieved IFM and Business as Usual (BAU) Years after Plan Implementation scenarios. Improvement in Forest Carbon 12% Sequestration 10% Percent change in Intensive Forest Management vs. sequestered tCO₂eq Business as Usual 8% Over 150 years, Intensive Forest 6% Management could sequester 7.5 million metric tonnes more 4% carbon than under the Business as Usual scenario. 2% Years after Plan Implementation 0% Net Percent Difference Between Scenarios What if spatial and temporal planning allowed 1% of the managed forest area to be used for mushroom and berry production? We usually think of forest tenures only but creates new opportunities for in terms of the timber revenues they employment, small business provide. Non-Timber Forest Products development, and economic offer alternative and complementary diversification – all important factors revenue streams derived from the in the redesign of an economy.