George Houser
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Soulhem lfrica: DEmiiE OR ------------GEORGETO STRUGGLE HOUSER l FR.ICA1 AND PAR.TICULAR.LY SOUTHER.N AFluCA ernment in Mozambique has particularly inspired Afeatured prominently in the news to an unusual the optimistic feeling that change will continue degree during the last eight months of 1974. The elsewhere. Leaders of the Zimbabwe liberation April military coup in Portugal paved the way for movements in Rhodesia have begun to see the end the Portuguese recognition of Guinea-Bissau's inde of their long struggle against the white minority pendence. In September a transitional government Government. (Zimbabwe is the name used by Afri was instituted in Mozambique under the leadership can nationalists to refer to what others call Rhode of FRELIMO, the liberation movement that waged sia.) Though they do not assume that their freedom guerrilla warfare against Portuguese domination will simply be handed to them, they feel that Ian for ten years. Talks began between the Portuguese Smith cannot hold out indefinitely against their and three liberation movements to set up a provi expanding guerrilla activity, the economic pressure sional gov_ernment in Angola. None of this could that an independent Mozambique could exert by have been prophesied as 1974 began. limiting the use of the rail line to Beira on the The attempt, led by African countries, to expel Indian Ocean, and the growing international diplo the Republic of South Africa from the United matic and economic pressures. The same mood was Nations (which was defeated only by the veto in the ·reflected regarding the independence of Namibia Security Council of the US, Britain and France) (Southwest Africa). was certainly one of the ·events that made memor Meanwhile; the reality of a soon-to-be indepen able the 29th session of the United Nations Gen dent Mozambique and Angola was causing South eral Assembly. Contrasting with this effort at Africa to display a new and unexpected interna international censure were the public statements by tional image. Statements about "self-determination" President Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia arid Prime in Namibia were reiterated. Prime Minister Vorster Minister Johannes Vorster of South Africa, which and Foreign l\Iinister Muller wished the FRELIJ\IO seemed to signal the opening stages of a detente Government well, hinted at the withdrawal of between the white supremacist state and black South African troops from Rhodesia, and suggested African counuies. Speaking in Capetown in late that within six months there would be unexpected October, Vorster said that South Africa was an changes in South Africa's pattern of race relations. African (rather than European) country and pledged Things definitely were moving in southern Africa, his Government to work for peace, progress and and the seeming stalemate of more than a decade development in the African context. Kaunda re was. apparently being broken. sponded during the celebration of the tenth anni This overwhelming mood of expectancy on the versary of Zambia's independence: "This is the continent can only be compared with the early voice of reason for which Africa and the world 196o's. Between 1956 and 1960, 21 African countries have waited for many years." became independent. In February 1960 Prime Min I have been traveling to Africa for varying ister Harold Macmillan of Great Britain made his periods of time over the .past 20 years, most recently famous "winds of change" speeCh. in Capetown. last fall. During this visit I was deeply impressed l\lany assumed that the change from colonial rule by a mood of rising expectation that prevailed and white-minority domination could not be everywhere. This was reflected by officials in such stopped-not even in South Africa. But it was! key countries as Zambia and Tanzania, as well as The Portuguese gave· no indication of leaving by leaders of all the . southern Africa liberation their territories, and the whites of South Africa, movements. The effect of the changes in former Rhodesia and Namibia were obviously resolved to Portuguese Africa has been contagiouS. hang on indefinitely. Guerrilla warfare began in The formation of a FRELIMO-dominated gov- earnest in Guinea-Bissau, Angola and Mozambique, and."more sporadically in Rhodesia and Namibia. gered in I9i4 by Portugal's ne\\· policy would ex In South Africa the Government simply strength tend to South Africa itse!L This would seem logical. ened the police state apparatus to make effective And yet, I am convinced it is not happening, and it African opposition virtually impossible. "·ill not !1appen without a bitter struggle that will But the coup in Portugal ended the long period be, in part, violent. Those who view South Africa of violent struggle in its.colonies. And, no doubt, as a radically changing country prepared to adjust the change will continue in Rhodesia and Namibia. readily to the new realities are making a serious An independent Zimbabwe and Namibia cannot Prror. Such an assumption can lead. individuals, be too distant. The question is (and the ultimate organizations and g'overnments to adopt policies problem of southern Africa always has been): What that "·ill hold back the fundamental changes that will South Africa do? The reality of the new situa must take place. tion has forced South Africa to take a new look at Gradual and peaceful change can take place only its position. Unless it wishes to fight beyond its own within a country that is essentially stable .. Those borders in Rhodesia and Namibia, South Africa who assume that South Africa is now changing be will be bordered shortly on all landward sides by lieve in iu, long-range stability. The more than 300 independent black African states. American corporations that have invested a billion dollars or so (and their British counterparts who The Myth of Change are im·esting much more) have confidence in South Africa's stability. And US Government policy based Vorster has said that South Africa is at the cross on "communication" and "dialogue" assumes its roads. Kaunda has stated explicitly: "The time has stability. come fot the South African Government to make a The argument for stability has several bases: ( 1) choice.... .The choice is either the road to peace, South Africa's wealth-it uses or produces 40 per progress and development or to the escalation of cent of the automobiles of Africa, 50 percent of the conflict in .southern Africa." electrical power, half of the telephones of the con One would like to believe that the change trig- tinent, So percent of the coal, and 64 percent ~f the 2 whole Western world's gold; (2) firm political con status. Fu{thermore, the stability of South Africa trol by the National Party, which has 122 seats out is more apparent than real. This statement is based of 1 i 1 in Parliament; (3) ri1ilitary strength-military on the historical, political and moral judgment that expenditures have been increased to over a billion a minority cannot indefinitely preserve a system dollars for the current year. On the surface at least, based on exploitation apd repression of a majority. everything would appear to be safely set for the The whites, although in control of the country forseeable future. ·· through a police state mechanism, are only li per It is well-recognized that the Republic has signifi cent of the total population. There are about four cant problems based primarily on its racial divisions. million whites as over against 16 million Africans, Virtually all sections of the American community ahnost one million .\sians and approximately two im·olved with South Africa are critical of the apar million Coloureds (mixed blood). · theid (separate development) policy. At least this is The differential in lh·ing standards between their public posture, whatever their private views whites and blacks continues to grmc Blacks' wages might be._ ha,·e risen in the last fe"· years, but in absolute However, those who have the greatest economic terms the economic gap is growing. The a,·erage involvement as~ume that change will come about, white income in urban areas is about Sfioo a month, that it will be'graduaFand orderly, and that greater and that ·of the blacks is just o\·er Swo. Over half imestmenf. wjll_ quicken the pressure for change. of the blacks live below the S 120 estimated as the They argue that the need for black labor and its Poverty Datum line for a family of five. influx into urban communities will lead to the Apartheid is not being eroded by the grmrth of erosion of apartheid. They atgue that as more the economy and the opening up of new jobs for skilled positions in industry are opened to black .\fricans in the urban communities a., in industry. workers the industrial color bar will gradually fade African trade unions are still not permitted in the away. collective bargaining process. A growing number These arguments are frequently bolstered by of stnkes have taken place in the last few years, pointing to recent changes: the beginning of multi · and the Government has taken a somewhat tolerant racial sports events, the abolition of certain aspects attitude towards them. However, the alternative of petty apartheid in some of the major cities might have been industrial chaos. (separate park benches, waiting lines, etc.), the According to the South African Institute of Race abolition of the l\Iasters and Servants Act (thereby Relations, m·er two million Africans have been permitting servants to leave their employers), the remo,·ed forcibly from their locations in the urban election· of seven Progressive Party members to · areas to African reserves (also called Bantustans or Parliament in the recerit elections (there has been "homelands") since 1962· under various apartheid only ~me for many years), the announcement of a laws.