Technical Note

Project: West Coast Mainline Passenger Study

Subject: West Coast Mainline - Highway Benefits

Client: Campaign for Better Transport Version: 1 Project No: 03959 Author: AK Date: February 2019 Approved: PJ 1 Introduction

1.1.1 PJA has been commissioned by Campaign for Better Transport to undertake an assessment of the highway benefits the West Coast Mainline (WCML) has had on the strategic road network (SRN) across Great Britain.

2 Methodology

2.1.1 Virgin Trains provided PJA with a dataset showing the annual number of railway journeys using any section of the WCML between pairs of origin and destination stations for the years 2009 and 2018. The journeys between each origin-destination pair are the total journeys in both directions. Due to the nature of flexible tickets, there is no way of telling which route passengers travelled on. Therefore, the number of actual journeys associated with the origin-destination pairs was calculated by Virgin Trains based on an assumed proportion of the number of tickets purchased.

2.1.2 To manage the scale of the analysis, PJA filtered the dataset to exclude all origin-destination station pairs with fewer than 10,000 associated annual journeys for both 2009 and 2018. The remaining journey pairs represent 73% of journeys in 2009 and 80% of journeys in 2018. As the excluded journey pairs are likely to follow the same sections of road network, the flows for the journey pairs analysed were factored up by 37% for 2009 and 25% for 2018 to represent the total passengers on the WCML.

2.2 Routing

2.2.1 Each station associated with these origin-destination pairs was geographically plotted using ArcGIS Pro. For some larger cities such as Birmingham and London, the dataset provided did not specify the station. In these cases, PJA plotted the most central station, e.g. London Charing Cross for London.

LOCATION Brew House TELEPHONE 0117 325 1520 WEBSITE pja.co.uk Jacob Street EMAIL [email protected] Tower Hill Bristol BS2 0EQ

2.2.2 Using ArcGIS Pro’s Network Analyst extension, the route on the Strategic Highway Network (SRN) was calculated between each origin-destination pair along the road network for both 2009 and 2018.

2.2.3 To understand the theoretical additional traffic demand on the SRN if these railway journeys had been made by road, a join was performed between each origin-destination pair route and the underlying SRN. The output of this was a sum of the total additional demand for road journeys from each origin-destination station pair on each link in the SRN.

2.2.4 To convert these person-journeys into car traffic, a car occupancy value was obtained from the National Travel Survey. The category ‘All purposes’ was used to reflect the variety of purposes for which train journeys are made, the value for 2009 was 1.58 and the value for 2017 was 1.55. This car occupancy value was then applied to the demand on each link on the SRN. The value for 2017 was used for the 2018 data in absence of a more recent figure.

2.2.5 Mapping outputs of the theoretical additional annual traffic flows as well as average annual daily traffic (AADT) on the SRN were then generated. These are reproduced at Appendix A.

2.3 Comparison with Baseline

2.3.1 To establish the highest areas of traffic demand on the SRN, the top 100 road links with the highest additional demand were extracted for both 2009 and 2018. For these locations, PJA downloaded 20 traffic count datasets from the Department for Transport (DfT).

2.3.2 These count locations were then plotted on GIS. The additional flow created by the transfer of WCML journeys at each of these locations was then compared with the DfT’s observed AADT for all vehicles for both 2009 and 2018, the results of which are reproduced at Appendix B.

2.4 Forecast Delay

2.4.1 In order to forecast the traffic delay that would result from the transfer of journeys from the WCML to the SRN, speed-flow curves used in the DfTs COBA appraisal tool have been used to infer the change in speeds due to the additional forecast flows.

2.4.2 A publicly-available report prepared by Atkins (G-BATS3 v2.3 Highway Local Model Validation Report) was used which contains an appendix showing COBA speed-flow curves, and which have been converted for use in SATURN modelling. The report provides the parameters for various road types. For the purposes of our analysis, the speed-flow curve for road type Rural D3 Motorway (Index 1) has been used, which best matches the sections of the SRN that would be affected by a transfer of journeys from the WCML. This is shown in Figure 2-1 overleaf.

Figure 2-1: Speed-Flow Curves for Different Road Types (Appendix B Figure B.1 G-BATS3 v2.3 Highway Local Model Validation Report)

2.4.3 The Highways England data for the affected road network showed that the AM peak across the network is between 0800 -0900 and represents 10% of all daily traffic. This 10% factor was then applied to the DfT AADT data to derive the AM peak flows. The peak hour for the predicted flows from the WCML was supplied by Virgin Trains.

2.4.4 From the existing and forecast flows, speeds were derived from the graph above. For each section of road, the time taken for a vehicle to drive along each section was calculated based on the speed. The delay was then derived from the difference in driving time for the existing flows and with the additional forecast flows.

3 Results

3.1 Routing

3.1.1 The routing algorithm within Network Analyst uses the shortest path on the road network. Analysis across the UK showed that the roads with highest associated forecast demand are sections of the M40, the M6 Toll and the M6. These roads broadly follow the route of the WCML, as shown in overleaf in Figure 3-1. This simple shortest path assumption was then manually adjusted, as referred to below.

3.1.2 The maps at Appendix A indicate that the largest number of people would travel between London and Birmingham along the M40 in both 2009 and 2018. In the dataset provided by Virgin Trains, the two highest journey numbers are associated with two-way journeys between London and Manchester and London and Birmingham. Both of these journey pairs would use the M40 as the main route into and out of London based on the shortest path assignment. The maps also show significant additional demand would occur on the M6 north of Birmingham.

Figure 3-1: West Coast Mainline (Source: Project Mapping)

3.1.3 The station (cluster) with the highest number of journeys associated with it is London. As mentioned previously, a central location, London Charing Cross, has been chosen. Depending on the actual origin of the trip (which would typically have been different to the originating station), there is likely to have been a greater proportion of journeys which would chose to travel on the M1 instead of the M40. The proportion of journeys which would likely choose to follow the M1 cannot be easily determined, therefore, the following analysis in this report will analyse the M1 and M40 flows as one overall highway corridor.

3.1.4 Similarly, due to the shortest path algorithm, the routes travelling to the north of Birmingham are forecast to largely travel on the M6 Toll. In reality, as a result of the toll charge, a large proportion of these vehicles would choose to use the M6.

3.1.5 The proportion of journeys which would use the M6 Toll was assessed by comparing traffic flows on the M6 through the West Midlands with the M6 Toll, as a proxy for its overall attractiveness as a route. A DfT traffic count from 2017 gives the AADT for cars and taxis on the M6 north of the junction with the M5 as 84,078, with 42,370 on the M6 Toll at a broadly central location, totalling to 126,448 on both these sections of Motorway. This equates to 34% of all traffic passing through the West Midlands motorways using the M6 Toll. The flows for the shortest path scenario and this manually adjusted scenario are summarised in Table 3-1 below.

Table 3-1: Flows on M6 and M6 Toll Scenario Road 2009 2018 Shortest Path M6 1,008 1,257 M6 Toll 5,516 19,028 M6 4,693 14,605 34% of cars / taxis on M6 Toll M6 Toll 1,827 5,680

3.2 Comparison with Baseline

3.2.1 As shown in the mapping outputs at Appendix B, the comparison with DfT count points shows a maximum percentage increase of traffic of 17% in 2009 and 18% in 2018 caused by the transfer of journeys from the WCML to the SRN.

3.2.2 The comparison points for the M40 and M1 are shown diagrammatically between the two roads. The points show graphically the percentage increase in the total flow on the two roads due to the transfer of journeys from the WCML.

3.2.3 As discussed previously, only 34% of cars / taxis between the M6 and the M6 Toll travels on the Toll road. Therefore, this has been amended for the purposes of the analysis and is demonstrated in the outputs at Appendix B and flows in Table 3-2 below.

Table 3-2: Comparison of Flows DfT Traffic Count AADT DfT AADT DfT WCML AADT WCML AADT % Increase % Increase Location Codepoint 2009 2018 2009 2018 09 18 M6 6027 117,399 119,888 6,860 18,255 6% 15% M6 6028 175,733 169,187 3,798 6,054 2% 4% M56 6047 140,810 156,952 1,863 10,744 1% 7% M6 6048 73,752 81,373 1,863 10,744 3% 13% M6 16030 102,694 107,521 1,783 5,198 2% 5% M6 26031 60,135 73,834 1,278 3,132 2% 4% M6 73324 62,276 69,973 1,288 3,240 2% 5%

DfT Traffic Count AADT DfT AADT DfT WCML AADT WCML AADT % Increase % Increase Location Codepoint 2009 2018 2009 2018 09 18 M6 81271 127,142 110,877 6,573 17,568 5% 16% M42 38718 118,510 141,580 9,812 20,613 8% 15% M6 46023 112,897 113,949 7,467 19,140 7% 17% M6 56025 112,213 106,442 7,774 19,181 7% 18% M6 Toll 80831 37,663 48,603 2,611 5,764 7% 12% M6 46027 64,433 76,061 1,854 3,478 3% 5% M6 38071 110,956 125,489 6,713 14,823 6% 12% M1/M40 16039 / 56002 250,193 299,306 14,764 25,293 6% 8% M1/M40 36040 / 73046 253,223 267,282 14,764 25,293 6% 9% M1/M40 47933 / 26001 183,136 217,712 13,662 25,293 7% 12% M1/M40 73180 / 56004 162,802 193,264 13,662 25,293 8% 13% M1/M40 74025 / 6004 170,587 188,307 14,138 26,801 8% 14% M1/M40 18629 / 74928 196,213 222,483 14,138 26,763 7% 12%

3.3 Delay Analysis

3.3.1 For the analysis on the M6 Toll and M6 in Birmingham, the adjusted scenario discussed in this document have been applied to calculate the additional traffic delay that would result from the transfer of journeys from the WCML to the SRN.

3.3.2 For the purposes of calculating delay, 50% of the additional traffic has been assumed to use the M1 and 50% has been assumed to use the M40. The analysis is summarised in Table 3-3 below.

3.3.3 The flows are one way and per lane (assuming all roads assessed are three lanes) and in Passenger Car Units (PCUs).

Table 3-3: Delay Analysis Section Kilom 2009 DfT 2018 DfT 2009 WCML 2018 WCML Delay 2009 Delay 2018 etres AM Peak – AM Peak – Flow – Per Flow – Per (Mins) (Mins) Per Lane Per Lane Lane Lane M40 London - Oxford 43 1,841 1,894 176 305 7 8 M40 Oxford - Banbury 45 1,101 1,301 163 305 1 1 M40 Banbury - 47 1,638 1,662 169 324 3 8 Birmingham M1 London - North of 26 2,595 2,849 176 611 5 16 Luton M1 Luton - Northampton 35 1,751 2,129 163 305 5 7 M1 Northampton - M6 37 1,642 1,774 169 324 2 6 M6 Toll 32 660 862 37 103 0 1

Section Kilom 2009 DfT 2018 DfT 2009 WCML 2018 WCML Delay 2009 Delay 2018 etres AM Peak – AM Peak – Flow – Per Flow – Per (Mins) (Mins) Per Lane Per Lane Lane Lane M6 Birmingham 16 2,234 2,350 96 265 1 4 M6 Wolverhampton 15 1,944 2,227 96 265 0 3 M6 Birmingham - 41 1,978 2,022 130 370 3 8 Newcastle M6 Newcastle to MCR 47 2,057 2,127 119 353 8 11 M56 20 1,292 1,444 32 208 1 1 M6 North of MCR 39 1,799 1,908 31 100 1 1

3.3.4 The analysis shows that in 2009, the most significant increase in delay would take place on the M6 between Newcastle-under-Lyme and Manchester, with a delay of eight minutes.

3.3.5 In 2018, the most significant increase delay would be on the M1 between London and Luton, with a delay of 16 minutes. However, as mentioned in 3.3.2, this is based on the assumption that 50% of the additional forecast traffic would travel on the M40 over the M1. It should therefore be taken as indicative of the potential additional delay.

4 Summary and Conclusions

4.1.1 PJA undertook analysis to understand the potential impact of the journeys made on the West Coast Mainline if they were to travel on the highway network. This analysis was undertaken for both 2009 and 2018.

4.1.2 The actual number of rail journeys between origin-destination station pairs were routed on the highway network via the shortest path. According to our analysis, the maximum increase in flow is 26,763 which is likely to be distributed across the M1 and M40. The largest percentage increase forecast is 16% on the M6, just north of Birmingham.

4.1.3 The impact of this additional traffic on delay was calculated along sections shorter than 30 miles. The maximum forecast delay was 16 minutes between London and Luton on the M1, which should be taken as indicative.

Appendix A Route Maps

STIRLING M90 Additional Car Journeys M876 A823(M) M9 on Road Network - 2009 M80 EDINBURGH AADT GLASGOW M8 ≤500 ≤2,500 M77 M74 ≤5,000 ≤10,000 ≤15,000 ≤20,200 Motorway A74(M)

Note - Includes all station origin - destination pairs with more than 10,000 WCML passengers per annum NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE A194(M) CARLISLE SUNDERLAND DURHAM

A66(M)

A601(M) RIPON LANCASTER A1(M) YORK

LEEDS KINGSTON PRESTON M65 BRADFORD UPON HULL M66 M62 WAKEFIELD M61 A627(M) M181 M180 SALFORD M18 LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER M53 SHEFFIELD M56 BANGOR ST ASAPH LINCOLN CHESTER

STOKE-ON-TRENT NOTTINGHAM DERBY M1 LICHFIELD M54 M6 Toll LEICESTER WOLVERHAMPTON PETERBOROUGH M69 BIRMINGHAM ELY COVENTRY A14(M) M42 M45

WORCESTER CAMBRIDGE M40 HEREFORD M50 ST DAVIDS GLOUCESTER M11 ST ALBANS M4 OXFORD SWANSEA/ABERTAWE NEWPORT/CASNEWYDD A48(M) M49 A404(M) LONDON CARDIFF/CAERDYDD BRISTOL A329(M) BATH M25 M26 M3 WELLS M23

SALISBURYWINCHESTER M5 M27 SOUTHAMPTON BRIGHTON CHICHESTER PORTSMOUTH AND HOVE 0 37.5 75 EXETER150 Kilometres Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community STIRLING M90 Potential West Coast M876 A823(M) M9 Mainline Passengers - M80 EDINBURGH 2009 GLASGOW M8 Annual ≤100,000 M77 M74 ≤500,000 ≤1,000,000 ≤2,500,000 ≤5,000,000 ≤7,400,000 A74(M) Motorway

Note - Includes all station origin - destination pairs with more than 10,000 WCML passengers per annum NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE A194(M) CARLISLE SUNDERLAND DURHAM

A66(M)

A601(M) RIPON LANCASTER A1(M) YORK

LEEDS KINGSTON PRESTON M65 BRADFORD UPON HULL M66 M62 WAKEFIELD M61 A627(M) M181 M180 SALFORD M18 LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER M53 SHEFFIELD M56 BANGOR ST ASAPH LINCOLN CHESTER

STOKE-ON-TRENT NOTTINGHAM DERBY M1 LICHFIELD M54 M6 Toll LEICESTER WOLVERHAMPTON PETERBOROUGH M69 BIRMINGHAM ELY COVENTRY A14(M) M42 M45

SALISBURYWINCHESTER M5 M27 SOUTHAMPTON BRIGHTON CHICHESTER PORTSMOUTH AND HOVE 0 37.5 75 EXETER150 Kilometres Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community STIRLING M90 Additional Car Journeys M876 A823(M) M9 on Road Network - 2018 M80 EDINBURGH AADT GLASGOW M8 ≤500 ≤2,500 M77 M74 ≤5,000 ≤10,000 ≤15,000 ≤20,200 Motorway A74(M)

Note - Includes all station origin - destination pairs with more than 10,000 WCML passengers per annum NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE A194(M) CARLISLE SUNDERLAND DURHAM

A66(M)

A601(M) RIPON LANCASTER A1(M) YORK

LEEDS KINGSTON PRESTON M65 BRADFORD UPON HULL M66 M62 WAKEFIELD M61 A627(M) M181 M180 SALFORD M18 LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER M53 SHEFFIELD M56 BANGOR ST ASAPH LINCOLN CHESTER

STOKE-ON-TRENT NOTTINGHAM DERBY M1 LICHFIELD M54 M6 Toll LEICESTER WOLVERHAMPTON PETERBOROUGH M69 BIRMINGHAM ELY COVENTRY A14(M) M42 M45

SALISBURYWINCHESTER M5 M27 SOUTHAMPTON BRIGHTON CHICHESTER PORTSMOUTH AND HOVE 0 37.5 75 EXETER150 Kilometres Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community STIRLING M90 Additional Car Journeys M876 A823(M) M9 on Road Network - 2018 M80 EDINBURGH Annual GLASGOW M8 ≤100,000 ≤500,000 M77 M74 ≤1,000,000 ≤2,500,000 ≤5,000,000 ≤7,400,000 Motorway A74(M)

Note - Includes all station origin - destination pairs with more than 10,000 WCML passengers per annum NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE A194(M) CARLISLE SUNDERLAND DURHAM

A66(M)

A601(M) RIPON LANCASTER A1(M) YORK

LEEDS KINGSTON PRESTON M65 BRADFORD UPON HULL M66 M62 WAKEFIELD M61 A627(M) M181 M180 SALFORD M18 LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER M53 SHEFFIELD M56 BANGOR ST ASAPH LINCOLN CHESTER

STOKE-ON-TRENT NOTTINGHAM DERBY M1 LICHFIELD M54 M6 Toll LEICESTER WOLVERHAMPTON PETERBOROUGH M69 BIRMINGHAM ELY COVENTRY A14(M) M42 M45

SALISBURYWINCHESTER M5 M27 SOUTHAMPTON BRIGHTON CHICHESTER PORTSMOUTH AND HOVE 0 37.5 75 EXETER150 Kilometres Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community

Appendix B Comparison with DfT

M6 WCML AADT / DfT AADT % Increase ≤5 ≤10 ≤15

≤20 A601(M) RIPON Motorway

= 2018 Flows LANCASTER A1(M) = 2009 Flows YORK

M55 BRADFORD LEEDS PRESTON M606 M621 M65 WAKEFIELD M62 M66 M61 M181 A627(M) M180 M58 SALFORD M18 M57 MANCHESTER M67 M60 LIVERPOOL SHEFFIELD M53

ST ASAPH M56 LINCOLN CHESTER

STOKE-ON-TRENT NOTTINGHAM DERBY

LICHFIELD M54 LEICESTER WOLVERHAMPTON M6 Toll

M69 A38(M) BIRMINGHAM COVENTRY

M42 M45

WORCESTER M40

HEREFORD

M50

GLOUCESTER

OXFORD

M48 NEWPORT/CASNEWYDD M5 M4 0 20 40 A48(M) M4980 Kilometres A404(M) CARDIFF/CAERDYDD M32 Esri, HERE, Garmin, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community