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Construction Presale Volume Growth to Support Earnings Improvements Construction Presale volume growth to support earnings improvements Overweight (Maintain) Large builders’ presale volume to increase 44% in 2020 In 2020, large builders (Hyundai E&C, Daewoo E&C, GS E&C, Daelim Industrial, and Industry Report Hyundai Development) are planning 122,000 apartments for presale, up 92% from last year’s actual presale volume. Applying the historical average ratio (75%) of actual January 10, 2020 presales to planned presales, we expect presale volume to be around 92,000 units in 2020, up 44% from 2019. Presale growth to support earnings improvements; Large builders gaining Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. market share [Construction/Building Materials ] The continued decline in apartment presales since 2018 has led to mo unting worries about housing earnings. However, we believe large builders’ increased presale Kwangsoo Lee volumes in 2020 will support housing earnings improvements. Notably, large builders’ +822 -3774 -1457 share of the housing market is growing. Based on presale plans for 2020, we ex pect [email protected] the five big builders to account for 35% of the market this year—the highest level on record. We believe large builders will continue to gain ground, driven by market shifts Junghan Yoon +822 -3774 -1371 toward reconstruction/redevelopment and greater differentiation. If such mark et [email protected] share expansion continues, large builders should be able to generate stable profits from housing, even if the overall presale market shrinks. Improving presale ratios and presale volume growth to help stabilize sentiment Initial presale ratios have l ately been improving, especially in the Seoul capital area. The initial presale ratio in Gyeonggi has continued to rise since 1Q19, hitting 89.2% in 3Q19. As the existing apartment market grapples with regulations and elevated prices, consumers have been s howing increasing interest in the new presale apartment market. With growing presale volume and improving presale ratios, risks surrounding the housing business could quickly subside. Heightened uncertainties in the Middle East and real estate regulation s are dampening investor sentiment on the construction sector. However, we think housing earnings growth driven by an improving presale market will help ease the sector’s undervaluation. At present, large construction stocks are trading at a historically l ow average P/B of 0.5x. Our top picks remain Daewoo E&C and GS E&C, which are likely to see improvements in their housing businesses. We forecast regular apartment presale volume in Seoul to reach 20,000 units in 2020, an increase of more than 5,000 un its YoY and the highest level since 2003. We also expect regular apartment presale volume in the Gyeonggi area to rise to 68,000 units, up 9,816 units YoY. As presale volume increases, we think sentiment in the real estate market will stabilize. Large builders’ 2020 apartment presale volume ('000 units) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F Source: Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research January 10, 2020 Construction Figure 1. Large builders’ housing M/S trend (%) 40 35 30 35% M/S 25 20 15 10 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F Source: Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. Initial presale ratios (private apartment projects) (%) 100 Nationwide Gyeonggi 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 Source: Housing Information Portal, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. Apartment presale volume in Seoul (private apartment projects) ('000 units) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F Source: Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 10, 2020 Construction Table 1. Major construction stocks (Wbn, W) Ticker Market cap Rating TP CP Hyundai E&C 000720 KS 4,304 Trading Buy 48,000 38,650 Daelim Ind. 000210 KS 2,909 Buy 116,000 83,600 GS E&C 006360 KS 2,251 Buy 48,700 28,100 Daewoo E&C 047040 KS 1,820 Buy 6,800 4,380 Hyundai Dev. 294870 KS 1,030 - - 23,450 Source: WISEfn , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 January 10, 2020 Construction APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price GS E&C(006360) Daewoo E&C(047040) 12/03/2019 Buy 48,700 09/15/2019 Buy 6,800 10/25/2019 After 1yr 10/25/2018 Buy 7,900 10/25/2018 Buy 63,000 07/02/2018 After 1yr 07/16/2018 Buy 58,000 07/02/2017 Buy 9,400 04/09/2018 Buy 48,000 04/26/2017 Buy 40,000 (W) GS E&C (W) Daewoo E&C 80,000 10,000 8,000 60,000 6,000 40,000 4,000 20,000 2,000 0 0 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold ( ●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 84.05% 9.82% 6.13% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 76.67% 13.33% 10.00% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2019) Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of GS E&C as an underlying asset; other than this, Mirae Asset Daewoo has no other special interests in the covered companies. As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. is acting as a financial advisor to Daewoo E&C for its treasury share buyback and cancellation. Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein. Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 January 10, 2020 Construction English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments.
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