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Vol. 5 Korea Real Estate Market Report 2016 Real Estate Market Trends and 2017 Outlook Real Estate Research Institute of KAB KAB Real Estate Market Report Greetings This is the fifth volume of the Korea Appraisal Board (KAB) Real Estate Market Report (2016 Real Estate Market Trends and 2017 Outlook). With the enactment of the Korea Appraisal Board Act in September 2016, KAB has undergone a transformation from an organization specializing in real estate appraisal to an organization dedicated to real estate market surveys and management as well as making announcements of official land value and related statistics. Maintaining order and stability in the Korean real estate market is an especially important task undertaken by KAB. The KAB Real Estate Market Report published semiannually in the first and second halves of the year provides reliable information on the real estate market including the future outlook, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses of the current trends, with the aim of ensuring order in the real estate market. The real estate market in Korea in 2016 became more stable compared to the previous year due to the influence of the economic slowdown and the new loan restriction policy concerning tighter loan review regulations. Notable trends in the year included the overheated pre-construction parceling-out market for the Gangnam reconstruction projects and the rise in housing prices in the Seoul Capital Area; however, following the announcement of the real estate policy on November 3, 2016 speculative investments declined, and the market became more stabilized centering on actual demand. Also, in some of the regions outside the Seoul Capital Area, real estate prices began to be on a downturn as a result of an industrial recession and increased housing supply. As for the real estate market outlook for 2017, the intent to purchase homes is expected to fall due to the high probability of a hike in the interest rate in Korea, as a result of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement of its plans to raise the interest rate over the course of the year. Also, the continued economic uncertainty at home and abroad, the rationalization of the mortgage policy, and higher housing supply are expected to become factors contributing to the shift in the sales market toward a downward stabilization, while the Jeonse market is expected to show stability. For this report, the major issues in the real estate market in addition to the current trends and outlook were analyzed in depth for a better understanding of the real estate market. First, in order to make an accurate diagnosis of the increasing economic risk factors in Korea and abroad and the rise in household debts, the level and structure of KAB Real Estate Market Report household debts in Korea as well as the characteristics of the households with debts were analyzed. In addition, amid the growing voices of concern regarding the demographic cliff and a sharp drop in housing demand resulting from low fertility and population aging as well as long-term stagnation in the housing market, data on the actual residential property transactions were used in a regression analysis of apartment purchases by age group, the results of which showed that the aging population contributed to the demand in the housing market. Moreover, the apartment subscription market in 2016 was diagnosed based on a comparison of the regional apartment subscription competition ratios through analyses of subscription competition ratios and time-space hot spots, as well as analyses of the determinants of the subscription competition ratios and similarities of the apartment subscription markets across the regions. Lastly, in order to analyze the factors influencing the predictions of housing prices, an empirical analysis was performed in regard to the correlations and causal relationships between the macroeconomic variables and housing prices nationwide. It is our hope that the market analysis data provided in this report serve as a basis for making judgments from a more balanced perspective. KAB will be committed to its role in performing multi-faceted, in-depth analyses and providing fair and comprehensive real estate market information through the Real Estate Market Report as a means to ensure stable housing for the citizens of Korea and support the policy implemented to advance the real estate market. Thank you. Real Estate Research Institute of KAB Director Chae Mie Oak CONTENTS PART 1 | Market Trends 1 Macro Economy and Real Estate Market 2 Housing Market 12 Land Market 42 Commercial Real Estate Market 61 PART 2 | 2017 Housing Market Outlook 85 PART 3 | In-Depth Analysis 91 Analysis ① | ‌Risk Diagnosis of Domestic Household Debts and Response Measures 92 Analysis ② | ‌The Population Aging and Housing Transactions : Evidence From the Real Estate Trade Management System Data 104 Analysis ③ | ‌Diagnosis of the 2016 Housing Subscription Market 116 Analysis ④ | ‌Analysis of Patterns in the Determinants of Housing Prices 132 PART 4 | Issue Analysis 143 ‌Shift Toward Rentals and Rent Burdens 144 ‌Supply, Transaction Volume and Sales Price Index of Row Houses and Multi-housing 154 ‌Burden of Jeonse and Rental Costs on Single-member Householdsg 165 ‌Market Trends and Outlook on Aggregate Retail Shop Market 173 KAB Real Estate Market Report Korea Real Estate Market Report P A R T 1 Market Trends Macro Economy and Real Estate Market Housing Market Land Market Commercial Real Estate Market Macro Economy and Real Estate Market Min Chulhong, Park Jinbaek Domestic Economic Trends In the case of the domestic economic trends, exports began to show an upward trend in November 2016, but market anxiety caused a slowdown in the domestic economy resulting in slower recovery. ○ Economic Growth Rate The economic growth rate in 2016 3Qwas recorded at 2.6%, compared to the same period in the previous year, while it fell from 3.3% in 2016 2Q. ○ Private Consumption The rate of increase in private consumption was 2.7% in 2016 3Q, which was a 0.6%p decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in the private consumption growth rate. Figure 1-1 Real GDP and growth rate 400 9 300 6 200 3 100 0 0 -3 `02.3Q `03.3Q `04.3Q `05.3Q `06.3Q `07.3Q `08.3Q `09.3Q `10.3Q `11.3Q `12.3Q `13.3Q `14.3Q `15.3Q `16.3Q GDP (Real, original series, YOY comparison %)(right) GDP (market price, trillion KRW)(left) Source: Bank of Korea (BOK) 2 Korea Appraisal Board Korea Real Estate Market Report(2016 Real Estate Market Trends and 2017 Outlook) P A R T 1 Market Trends Figure 1-2 Rate of change in private Figure 1-3 Rate of change in equipment consumption investment (Unit: %) (Unit: %) 8% 30% 20% 6% 10% 4% 0% 2% -10% 0% -20% `10.3Q `11.3Q `12.3Q `13.3Q `14.3Q `15.3Q `16.3Q `10.3Q `11.3Q `12.3Q `13.3Q `14.3Q `15.3Q `16.3Q Rate of change in private consumption (real, YOY comparison) Rate of change in equipment investment (real, YOY comparison) Source: Statistics Korea Source: Statistics Korea ○ Equipment Investment The equipment investment growth rate decreased to 4.2% in 2016 3Q due to the plunging demand for transportation equipment following the termination of a discount policy on the individual consumption tax, and the equipment investment index is projected to be low for some time, as the global economic slowdown is expected to continue. Construction Industry Trends Construction investment has shown a growth trend with a high value of construction completed centering on the building sector. Amidst this trend, an improvement was observed in construction contract wins, which are a leading indicator, in 3Q. ○ Construction Investment Investments into residential buildings increased by 21.27%, which drew strength from the favorable conditions in residential construction investment, while investments into building construction and non-residential buildings increased by 15.58% and 10.60%, respectively. The total construction investments recorded an 11.27% increase in 2016 3Q. 3 Table 1-1 Rate of change in construction investment, value of construction completed and contract value by sector (YOY comparison, Unit: %) 2015 2016 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Construction investment 0.72 1.37 5.50 8.29 9.59 11.04 11.27 Building construction 3.15 4.44 7.95 13.92 15.16 15.86 15.58 Residential buildings 6.26 10.66 15.56 24.60 23.06 24.42 21.27 Non-residential buildings 0.63 -0.45 2.07 5.58 8.39 8.37 10.60 Civil engineering construction -3.38 -4.19 0.64 -2.84 -0.54 1.45 2.06 Value of construction completed -1.72 -3.80 6.16 8.00 14.78 19.20 17.16 Architecture -0.20 -3.53 10.76 16.31 22.11 26.54 22.93 Civil engineering -4.27 -4.27 -1.91 -4.52 1.99 6.41 5.71 Contract value 57.44 49.06 50.35 40.09 13.81 -6.30 2.71 Architecture 89.47 49.33 42.53 37.81 13.13 2.46 4.24 Civil engineering 1.67 48.26 83.57 45.86 16.00 -32.81 -2.34 Note: Data on the YOY changes in real (construction investment for gross capital formation), fixed (value of construction completed) and current (contract value) accounts (%) Source: Statistics Korea ○ Value of Construction Completed Although the rates of increase in both the architecture and civil engineering sectors decreased slightly, they still showed favorable trends, with the value of construction completed in the architecture and civil engineering sectors increased by 22.93% and 5.71%, respectively, and the total value of construction completed in 2016 3Q increased by 17.16%.
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