THE AL-QA'IDA NETWORK AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION By Jonathan Spyer*
The use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by Middle Eastern terrorist groups is one of the world's worst nightmares, albeit a more credible one in the aftermath of September 11, 2001. Finding evidence, however, of such groups' plans or efforts in this direction is difficult. This article assesses the available information on the motives and capabilities of these organizations, and especially the al-Qa'ida network, to carry out such attacks. (This article was originally written for a project and conference on "Countering Threats in the Era of Mass Destruction: Accounts from the Middle East and Europe," co-sponsored by the GLORIA Center and The Military Centre for Strategic Studies (CeMiSS) of Italy.)
The use of weapons of mass destruction groups are considered to have developed (WMD) by a terrorist organization is one some non-conventional capability, albeit of the central threat scenarios currently of a limited and primitive nature. These facing democracies around the world. include: the Kurdish PKK, which experts The seriousness of the danger posed by consider to have weaponized Sarin nerve militant Islamist terror groups has been gas;(3) Hamas, which has coated apparent since the attacks of September fragments placed in bombs with 11, 2001. While evidence has been pesticides and poisons; and a number of unearthed of attempts by a number of U.S. "Patriot" groups, who have Islamist groups to acquire a non- experimented with various rudimentary conventional capability,(1) it is generally biological devices.(4) accepted that the al-Qa'ida network poses A number of key questions arise in the principle threat regarding the considering the issue of al-Qa'ida and employment of weapons of mass WMD: To what extent has it succeeded destruction by Islamist terrorists. In order in gaining access to the materials to understand the nature and dimensions necessary for the preparation of weapons of the threat, arriving at a correct of mass destruction? To what extent does understanding of the nature of al-Qa'ida-- it possess the necessary technical both in terms of its structure and in terms expertise required in the preparation of of the ideas driving and underlying its such weapons? Which state actors might activity--is therefore crucial. Equally be identified as potential or actual sources important is the sober analysis of the of support and assistance in its efforts to available evidence detailing attempts by acquire such weapons? How does the use the network to obtain a non-conventional of such weapons fit in with the strategy weapons capability, and observation of of al-Qa'ida? Finally, why, given the the more general patterns of use of WMD clear evidence that the network has by insurgent and terrorist groups. invested with some success in efforts to To date, the sole clearly documented obtain, for example, a rudimentary example of a terrorist use of WMD biological capability, have there as yet resulting in fatalities was that of the Sarin been no examples of successful terror gas attack in the Tokyo subway, attacks carried out by al-Qa'ida operatives perpetrated by the Aum Shinrikyo group using WMD? in Japan in 1995.(2) A number of terrorist Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) 29 Jonathan Spyer
Is it indeed, as Eliza Manningham- name of the new network was taken from Buller, director of Britain's MI5 put it, the writings of Azzam (who was killed by only a "matter of time" before such an a car bomb in 1989).(9) But the driving attack takes place?(5) Have measures force behind its foundation was bin taken by Western law enforcement and Ladin. intelligence agencies proven sufficient to For bin Ladin and his closest cohorts, foil al-Qa'ida's ambitions in this area? Or, the Afghan experience is a "founding conversely, has al-Qa'ida deliberately myth" whose intensity and central lesson held back from the employment of such is best captured in his own words: "Those means of destruction for reasons relating who carried out the jihad in Afghanistan to the role of terrorist violence in the did more than was expected of them network's overall strategy? because with very meager capacities they destroyed the largest military force (the AL-QA'IDA: IDEA AND Soviet Army) and in so doing removed ORGANIZATION from our minds this notion of stronger The origins of al-Qa'ida as both idea nations. We believe that America is and organization are to be found in the weaker than Russia."(10) units of Arab volunteers that took part in The Arab fighters thus drew from their the war against the USSR in Afghanistan Afghan experience the conviction that in the 1980s. Usama bin Ladin, founder through strength of will and dedication along with the Palestinian Muslim their success could be replicated Brotherhood activist Abdallah Azzam of elsewhere. When bin Ladin returned to the Maktab al-Khalimat (the Afghan Saudi Arabia in 1989, it was to a hero's Service Bureau or MAK), was a prime welcome. As a son of one of the mover in recruiting and organizing these kingdom's wealthiest families, who had fighters.(6) Utilizing his family's wealth, nevertheless freely embraced the role of bin Ladin established training camps for mujahid, he was widely seen as Arab volunteers, constructed essential embodying those qualities of militant roads and tunnels, contributed large sums piety and incorruptibility which the of money, compensated the families of kingdom professed itself to uphold. wounded fighters, and apparently also Bin Ladin rapidly became a key personally participated in important Islamist opponent to the regime, military engagements.(7) however, criticizing its venality and MAK was one of seven recognized alleged subordination to the West. His principal mujahideen organizations criticisms notwithstanding, he offered the involved in the fight against the Soviets. support of his fighters to the kingdom As such, bin Ladin may have benefited when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in from aid afforded the mujahedeen by the 1990. His offer was rebuffed, and instead, CIA at this time.(8) As victory drew near bin Ladin witnessed the inflow of a large in the late 1980s, however, bin Ladin and U.S. force to Saudi Arabia, tasked to Azzam parted ways. While Azzam protect the kingdom from invasion. More wished to continue the focus on than any other, it was this issue of the Afghanistan, bin Ladin now wanted to American military presence in the Gulf use the Afghan experience and that formed the focus of bin Ladin's rage infrastructure to continue the jihad in at the West, and set him on the road that other countries. In 1988, al-Qa'ida al- would lead to his later notoriety. As bin sulbah (the solid base) was founded, as an Ladin wrote, "Since God laid down the organizational structure intended to Arabian peninsula, created its desert and maintain the links between the "Afghan surrounded it with its seas, no calamity Arabs" for further jihad operations after has ever befallen it like these Crusader the conclusion of the Afghan war. The hosts that have spread in it like locusts,
30 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) The Al-Qa'ida Network and Weapons of Mass Destruction crowing its soil, eating its fruits and regime requested in May 1996 that bin destroying its verdure."(11) Ladin leave Sudanese soil. The latter Bin Ladin's resentment of the Western complied with the request, and was able military presence in the Hijaz has deep to set up his base once more in roots in Islam and Islamic history. An Afghanistan.(14) infidel military presence in the heartland of Islam--the attacks by Reynold of CHANGE AND EVOLUTION IN AL- Chatillon on Muslim convoys in the QA'IDA Hijaz--was the precipitating factor in In the course of the 1990s, both al- Salah al-Din's declaration of jihad against Qa'ida's organizational base and the idea the Crusaders.(12) Bin Ladin sought to that drove it underwent considerable emulate historical precedent by change and development. From an mobilizing his network of Afghan Arabs. organization whose primary concern had Increasingly, the focus of his attacks been the presence of infidel forces in would be less on the Saudi regime, which Saudi Arabia, al-Qa'ida from the mid- had supposedly failed in its duty by 1990s onward began to stress much allowing the infidels into the "land of the broader themes and grievances. Also two holy places." Rather, as the 1990s from an organization that had been built progressed, bin Ladin's target became the around the core of Arab veterans of the United States itself, as well as the broader Afghan war, al-Qa'ida began to expand to Western world. form a linking network, bringing together As a result of his declarations and radical Islamist organizations in many activities against the Saudi regime, bin different parts of the world.(15) Ladin's Saudi citizenship was revoked in By metamorphosing into a network, April 1994 and he was forced to leave the al-Qa'ida became a facilitating element country. He found a willing host in the for carrying out attacks that were planned Islamist regime of Umar al-Bashir in and perpetrated by militants who were Sudan, to where he repaired with his not organizationally connected to bin family and a large group of followers. In Ladin in any permanent, hierarchical Sudan, he set about creating an economic structure. To this effect, the network infrastructure which would provide developed a flexible, multi-faceted employment and activity for large modus operandi, establishing safehouses, numbers of his Afghan Arabs, many of places of residence and training camps in whom preferred to continue their lives Afghanistan, Sudan, Pakistan and Yemen within the framework of jihad rather than in the course of the 1990s. This return to their countries of origin. His transnational, facilitating role played by construction and engineering projects al-Qa'ida was vividly captured in the proved of benefit to the Sudanese testimony before a U.S. court by a former government, in addition to providing member of the network, Jamal Ahmad al- employment for his men. For example, a Fadl.(16) One example of al-Qa'ida's role bin Ladin company, al-Hijrih for as a network is its ambiguous part in the Construction and Development, was bombing of the World Trade Center in responsible for building the new airport at 1993. Investigators believe that bin Ladin Port Sudan in cooperation with the was not personally involved in the Sudanese military.(13) planning of this operation. But Ramzi But bin Ladin's relationship with the Yusef, the central operative involved in Sudanese regime soured. In 1993, the the execution of the attack is thought to country was added by the United States have been linked to Islamist groups to the list of states it considered to be associated with al-Qa'ida in Pakistan and active backers of terrorism. As part of its Afghanistan prior to the bombing.(17) efforts to remove itself from this list, the
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Alongside the emerging unique By 1998, the al-Qa'ida network's organizational structure of al-Qa'ida as a umbrella structure, stated goals, and key facilitator of Islamic terror worldwide, leadership cadre had emerged, and they the governing idea of al-Qa'ida--that of would retain those characteristics until global struggle between the forces of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. authentic Islam on the one side, and the By that time, the organization was known West and its corrupt and degenerate to be active in over 20 countries, from servants on the other, developed Southeast Asia to North America, and throughout the 1990s. In the course of the included Africa, the Middle East, and decade, bin Ladin's attacks on the Saudi Europe. It included militants from a regime grew rarer, while the scope of his number of Islamist radical movements, attentions expanded. including the Jama'a al-Islamiyya and al- In a Declaration of War issued in Jihad groups from Egypt. The leading 1996, following his expulsion from figures of these two groups, Rifat al-Taha Sudan, he defined the enemy as the and Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, would play "Zionist-Crusader alliance," before key roles in al-Qa'ida. The disparate proceeding to list a long litany of groups and individuals involved in al- grievances supposedly suffered by the Qa'ida had previously been focused on Islamic Umma (nation) at the hands of replacing the government of a particular this alliance.(18) The list included state with an Islamic regime. What references to Iraq (where bin Ladin was brought them together were the idea of opposed to the sanctions regime as the Global Jihad and the effective, fluid, harmful to Muslims), Bosnia, Chechnya, and flexible channels of assistance and and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The communication created by al-Qa'ida.(20) first part of the Declaration of War, nevertheless, still deals with specific AFTER SEPTEMBER 11 criticisms of the Saudi regime. Following the loss of its base of By the time of the landmark operations after the U.S. attack on declaration of February 23, 1998 (the Afghanistan late 2001, and the very Declaration of the World Islamic Front vigorous and largely successful American for Jihad against the Jews and the pursuit of al-Qa'ida militants over the Crusaders or Al-jabhah al-Islamiyya al- next two years, al-Qa'ida's capability to Alamiyah li-qital al-Yahud wal- launch attacks suffered. Senior figures Salabayin), al-Qa'ida's global focus had associated with the organization, such as become yet more pronounced, but so had Khalid Shaykh Muhammad, one of the its singling out of the United States as the masterminds of September 11, and force ultimately responsible for the "Hambali" (Riduan Isamuddin), leader of worldwide attempt to destroy Islam.(19) the Jemaa Islamiyya in Southeast Asia, The 1998 fatwa confirmed the decision of have been apprehended. the al-Qa'ida network to launch a holy Al-Qa'ida has not been destroyed, war, to "glorify the truth and defend however. Its will to continue attacks is Muslim land," as the document put it. undiminished. Its abilities, though the The document hardly relates at all to the subject of considerable dispute among failings of the Saudi regime, except experts, remain indisputably regarding the two holy places. The considerable, and may well be growing. example of Afghanistan and subsequent Regarding the experience of al-Qa'ida collapse of the Soviet Union was held up since 2001, it might be said that while the to show how the mujahideen of al-Qa'ida idea survives intact, the organization has would succeed in defeating the been transformed in the post-September apparently much stronger Americans. 11 period.(21)
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Having lost its physical base and some period ahead, al-Qa'ida will increasingly high-quality personnel thanks to work through the three dozen constituent determined efforts by Western law Islamist organizations that it has been enforcement, intelligence, and armed helping to train and finance over the last forces, al-Qa'ida has searched for and decade. Among the Islamist groups with found new bases of operation. Most whom al-Qa'ida operatives are today significantly, al-Qa'ida activists are working closely are Jemmah Islamiya playing a key role in the insurgency in (Southeast Asian group that carried out Iraq. Of crucial significance, too, is the the Bali bombing, with al-Qa'ida experts return of al-Qa'ida to active militancy in assisting), al-Ittihad al-Islami (Horn of Saudi Arabia. Other areas of importance, Africa), al-Ansar Mujahidin (Caucasus), all of which host their own local Islamist Tunisian Combatants Group, Jayash-e insurgency, are Mindanao in the Mohammad (South Asia), and Salafi Philippines, the Bangladash-Myanmar group for Call and Combat (GSPC, active border, Yemen, Somalia, Chechnya, the in North Africa, Europe, and North Pankishi Valley in Georgia, and of America).(24) course, the Afghan-Pakistan border.(22) This cross-organization cooperation Three factors have led to al-Qa'ida's was the modus operandi for the attacks in diminished ability to carry out Mombasa, Riyadh, Casablanca, Djerba, spectacular terrorist attacks of the and (most probably) at the Marriott Hotel September 11 type. First, increased in Karachi. In so far as operations against vigilance by law enforcement agencies "hard" Western targets have continued, and the wider public. One of the best the toughening of U.S. defenses has led examples of this was when passengers al-Qa'ida to seek opportunities against foiled the attempted suicide bombing by other Western powers. For example, Richard Reid of American Airlines flight having failed to target a U.S. warship off 63 on December 22, 2001. Second, the Yemeni coast, the organization struck September 11 led to greatly increased at a French super-tanker in October cooperation between law enforcement 2002.(25) The strike on Madrid in March and intelligence agencies across national 2004, carried out by a group named after borders. As a result, over 100 attempted a bin Ladin aide killed in Afghanistan, terror attacks by al-Qa'ida have been may also be seen as part of this picture, intercepted since September 11.(23) though its significance goes beyond Third, the fact that al-Qa'ida is now being it.(26) hunted with the full resources available to The strike in Madrid, coupled with bin Western law enforcement and Ladin's subsequent offer of a truce to intelligence agencies also inevitably has Europe, and the intense activity in Iraq an effect. Large-scale acts of terror take a and Saudi Arabia, confirm once more that long time in terms of planning. They al-Qa'ida is a political organization with require the participation of a larger clear political aims and belongs in the number of individuals and are category of extreme, violent characterized by logistical complexity. revolutionary organizations rather than Since al-Qa'ida wishes to preserve its apocalyptic, millennialist sects. This is a personnel and infrastructure, the logical matter of much more than semantic choice was to pursue small- and medium- distinction. Millennialist sects, such as scale operations, conducted by associate the Japanese Aum group, are convinced groups with technical and logistical aid of the imminent intervention of from the al-Qa'ida network in a process supernatural forces in the human world. that has been termed "franchising." Often, their violent acts are intended to In short, the organization has become bring this event about, or at minimum to fragmented. Experts consider that in the hasten the perceived process. The
Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) 33 Jonathan Spyer practical result of such convictions is the Qa'ida as organization is proving able to immunity of such groups to a rational transform and adapt itself to events, calculus of cost and effect. They are making use of thousands of militants and operating from deep within a world of supporters, members of different formal delusion, and as such, their tactical groupings--or of no grouping at all--to behavior may follow a pattern apparently continue the war of Islamist terror against in direct contradiction to even the most the United States and the West. basic laws of self-interest. Amongst the numerous examples of this type of AL-QA'IDA AND WEAPONS OF organization are the Jonestown cult and MASS DESTRUCTION the Heavens Gate group. A question which perplexes By contrast, al-Qa'ida, while based on researchers is why al-Qa'ida has so far a religious world-view, does not include refrained from employing non- in its theology the notion that a single conventional means, or at least, has not apocalyptic act of violence may yet succeeded in a terror strike using precipitate supernatural events. Rather, them. Much speculation has taken place the project is to bring about God's rule on around the extent to which al-Qa'ida is earth through the political and military attempting to develop chemical, victory of His servants. As such, in the biological, radiological, and nuclear matter of political and military strategy, weapons. al-Qa'ida, while acting with precipitate ruthlessness, employs violence for the Chemical and Biological Weapons: The furtherance of clear political aims. In this Evidence respect, then, its calculations regarding In terms of the stated intentions of the the use of WMD may be governed by organization's leaders and its written rational calculations of relative political documents, the desire to obtain a non- gain. This by no means rules out the conventional capability is clear. The possibility of the use of such weapons, eleventh volume of al-Qa'ida's 5,000- but it does change the way they are likely page Encyclopedia of Jihad is devoted to be deployed, and will affect the entirely to methods by which chemical calculation of the likeliness of their being and biological weapons may be used. constructed.(29) In May 2003, Shaykh The bomb in Madrid had a clear Nasr bin Hamid al-Fahd, a cleric political aim, namely to weaken and associated with the organization, issued a divide the coalition in Iraq. Similarly, the fatwa legitimizing the use of weapons of attacks in Saudi Arabia, besides mass destruction. Koranic justifications demonstrating the continued vigor of the are a clearly required element prior to an organization, show al-Qa'ida coming attack. As Manningham-Buller almost full circle, back to the goal of confirmed, "We know that renegade destabilizing the Saudi regime.(27) scientists have cooperated with al-Qa'ida Reports suggest that the organization has and provided them with some of the been strengthened by the insurgency in knowledge they need to develop these Iraq, with recruitment increasing. One weapons."(30) estimate suggests that al-Qa'ida may be In the post-September 2001 period, able to call on the services of 18,000 considerable evidence has emerged militants, based on the numbers of regarding al-Qa'ida efforts in this regard. individuals who underwent training at its During operations in Afghanistan, facilities over the last decade.(28) coalition forces found traces of ricin and Al-Qa'ida as idea--namely, the idea of anthrax at five or six sites.(31) Evidence a global clash between the forces of jihad of an interest in bubonic plague, cyanide, and the West--is very much alive. Al- and botulinum toxin was also
34 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) The Al-Qa'ida Network and Weapons of Mass Destruction unearthed.(32) In the summer of 2002, terror involving the use of chemical CNN researchers gained access to a large weapons in the Jordanian capital Amman archive of videotapes of al-Qa'ida in April 2004; and the charging of eight activities, prepared by the organization suspected al-Qa'ida members in London itself, and apparently found in a house in on August 18, 2004, with conspiracy to Afghanistan where bin Ladin had stayed. murder, and "conspiracy to to commit The tapes included video-training public nuisance by using radioactive manuals for terrorists instructing them in materials, toxic gases, chemicals and/or the assembling of explosive devices. explosives to cause disruption, fear or Independent experts confirmed that the injury." tapes were genuine. They also included The Rome case began in February depictions of the testing of a poison gas 2002 with the apprehension of four on three dogs. In one of the scenes, a Moroccan citizens for allegedly plotting group of unidentified men are seen an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Rome. hurriedly leaving an enclosure in which The men were found to have potassium the dogs are penned. A white gas is then ferrocyanide (a cyanide compound) in seen seeping in from the left, after which, their possession, along with maps within a short period, the dog begins detailing the location of water pipes showing physical reactions. The tapes serving the U.S. embassy.(35) An were examined by coalition intelligence additional five men were arrested in the officials, who consider that the scenes days that followed. The discovery of a depicted took place at the Durunta camp hole leading into an underground in Afghanistan. Satellite monitoring had passageway next to the U.S. Embassy picked up images of the corpses of dogs increased the sense that the authorities in this area.(33) had come upon what looked like a major Much additional evidence has been chemical terrorist attack. An additional gathered regarding al-Qa'ida's efforts six men were arrested on March 3, 2002, toward obtaining a chemical and suspected of links with al-Qa'ida. These biological capability. Testimony in a trial individuals had been heard discussing, in Egypt in 1999 included claims that al- among other things, the use of a cyanide Qa'ida had already acquired biological compound.(36) agents such as anthrax, the Ebola virus, As the investigation proceeded, Salmonella and botulinum toxin. U.S. however, doubts began to emerge as to forces discovered a partly built biological the seriousness of the plan, and indeed, weapons lab near Kandahar in late 2001 whether there was a plan at all. In the first designed to produce anthrax, though no place, it was noted that the hole bored actual agents were found.(34) Evidence into the concrete blocking off the tunnel unearthed with the capture of al-Qa'ida beneath the embassy might well have operations chief Khalid Shaykh been the work of municipal employees, Muhammad confirmed that al-Qa'ida who in the past have created similar efforts had reached a considerable level openings in order to transfer tools back of sophistication in this regard. and forth. It was also noted that the To date, there have been four particular compound found in the occurrences which may point to attempts possession of the suspects, potassium by al-Qa'ida to perpetrate terrorist acts ferrocyanide, has in fact a very low toxic involving the use of non-conventional content (it is often used as a food weaponry: one involving nine Moroccan additive). As such, if the suspects citizens in Rome in February-March of intended to use this substance to poison 2002; one ending in the arrest of six the water supply, this suggested a low North African men in London in 2003; level of competence on their part.(37) the reported foiling of a major act of
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The fact that al-Qa'ida operatives have have stated that four of the Islamists trained with cyanide was confirmed arrested in north London were associated during the interrogation of Ahmad with a well-known al-Qa'ida operative, Ressam, who was convicted in October the chemical warfare specialist Abu 2001 of planning to place a bomb at the Mus'ab al-Zarqawi. Zarqawi is suspected Los Angeles International Airport. of organizing both the murder of Ressam described al-Qa'ida operatives American diplomat Lawrence Foley and training to make use of liquid cyanide to the January 2000 plot to bomb bridges poison individuals. Details of the and luxury hotels in Jordan, which was preparation of this material are foiled by the authorities.(42) unavailable.(38) There is as yet no clear evidence as to The arrests that took place on January whether the suspects intended actually to 5, 2003, in north London involved seven employ ricin in a mass terror attack. men who were suspected of producing Some biological warfare experts have ricin, a highly toxic substance derived indeed suggested that ricin is more likely from castor beans, in an apartment. to be used as an instrument of Official UK sources indicated that at least assassination than as a weapon of mass one of the individuals arrested had destruction. Indeed, ricin is most famous attended an al-Qa'ida training camp in for its use in the assassination of Afghanistan. Others, it transpired, had Bulgarian dissident Georgi Markov.(43) undergone similar training in Chechnya Of course, the first successful example and the Pankisi Gorge region of Georgia. of a bio-terror attack took place in the On January 13, an additional five men period following September 11: namely, and a woman in Bournemouth were taken the anthrax mailings carried out by into custody. A day later, another persons unknown in the United States. Algerian Islamist, Kamal Bourgass, According to investigators, the individual killed a policeman while being or individuals concerned appear to have arrested.(39) had access to specific weaponization The discovery of this ring has serious technology and immunization against implications since it appears to offer anthrax.(44) These seemed to point to more concrete proof than had hitherto access to a weapons-related research existed of the intentions of Islamist facility. Since no one has been terrorists to develop biological weaponry. apprehended for these attacks, and no one The organizational affiliation of the has taken responsibility for them, the suspects was not immediately clear. question remains open. While they were suspected of al-Qa'ida The foiled attack in Amman in April membership, specifically of links to the 2004 remains shrouded in mystery. Press al-Qa'ida-affiliated, Algerian based reports at the time spoke of a plan to Groupe Salafiste pour la Predication et le detonate 20 tons of explosives at the Combat (GSPC) it was also considered headquarters of the General Intelligence possible that they could be linked to the Department in Amman. A possible Algerian Groupe Islamiste Algerien casualty figure of as many as 80,000 (GIA.)(40) In the course of the people was mentioned, had the authorities investigation, suspicions strengthened not succeeded in foiling the plan.(45) No concerning the likely al-Qa'ida link. authoritative details, however, including Instructions concerning the production the nature of the chemicals to be used in of ricin have appeared in al-Qa'ida the attack, have since emerged. Al- training manuals in the past. Moreover, Qa'ida, for its part, has denied that the traces of it, along with other substances, planned attack on the intelligence were found at sites searched by coalition building in Amman contained any non- forces in Afghanistan.(41) U.S. officials conventional aspect.(46)
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The alleged leader of the plot, a That al-Qa'ida has attempted, and is Jordanian citizen named Azmi al-Jayusi, attempting, to develop a biological and was shown on television confessing to chemical capability is clear. It would also having planned the chemical attack in be generally accepted today that the cooperation with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, organization probably has the ability to a Jordanian leader of the insurgency in carry out small-scale operations involving Iraq. Four days after details of the plot the use of chemical and biological were revealed, an audiotape was passed weaponry. Serious technical difficulties to several Arabic news bodies, claiming remain, however, for terrorist to contain the voice of Zarqawi, in which organizations wishing to make use of the chemical aspect of the plan was such weaponry. It should be borne in denied, though it was admitted that a mind that the storage and effective strike on the headquarters had been dissemination of most biological and planned. The authenticity of the tape chemical weaponry requires specialized remains uncertain. knowledge and equipment not easily The arrest and charging of eight men obtained by non-state actors, unless in London in August 2004, including acting with state support or sponsorship. Dhiren Barot, who is thought to hold a Furthermore, terrorists would run the risk prominent position in al-Qa'ida, may of contaminating themselves throughout represent the most serious evidence yet of the process of the development and plans by al-Qa'ida to actively prepare attempted use of WMD. operations using chemical and biological In other words, while in theory al- weapons. The men were seized by police Qa'ida may have the ability to use a in a series of armed raids in the London chemical or biological weapon, it is area and the county of Lancashire, in the highly unlikely that its use would actually north of England, in one of the largest result in massive casualties--especially counter-terror operations launched to date when compared to al-Qa'ida's proven against al-Qa'ida. Of those arrested, ability to cause large-scale loss of life Barot, 32, a British-born Hindu convert using conventional weapons. Moreover, to Islam, was found to have in his should al-Qa'ida launch a chemical or possession notebooks containing detailed biological attack that resulted in few information on the preparation of casualties, it might actually undermine al- explosives, chemicals, poisons, and Qa'ida's ability to instill fear and related matters. He also possessed details uncertainty in the societies it seeks to on U.S. financial buildings, thought to be disrupt--a psychological asset with which among the planned targets of the cell. a terrorist group will be loth to part. Qaisar Shaffi, 25, another of the eight These technical hurdles may form a men held, is charged with possessing major element in explaining why until sections of the "Terrorist's Handbook" now there has been no major attack by al- dealing with the preparation and use of Qa'ida using biological or chemical chemical and explosive devices.(47) weapons, despite the considerable There has so far been a single case of evidence that the network possesses some chemical weapons being used in the capabilities in this regard.(49) insurgency in Iraq. On May 17, 2004, a roadside bomb containing a quantity of Nuclear and Radiological Weaponry Sarin was detonated next to U.S. forces, Since September 11, there has been in which a number of military personnel much speculation regarding the were lightly wounded. The shell appears possibility that al-Qa'ida has acquired to have been a stray weapon scavenged operational nuclear devices. Various by insurgents rather than part of any estimates have claimed that the larger strategy.(48) organization possesses between one and
Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) 37 Jonathan Spyer forty-eight nuclear warheads.(50) None Chechnya.(57) These reports also of these estimates seem to derive from contained the claim that bin Ladin has reliable sources, however, and they may created his own team of nuclear scientists be filed under the general heading of from Muslim republics of the former hearsay. U.S. forces discovered Soviet Union. However, no concrete documents and blueprints for the design evidence exists, at least in the public of a nuclear device in a house in Kabul in domain, to indicate that al-Qa'ida has November 2001, but the documents were succeeded in its efforts in this area. found to be technically inaccurate, and The obvious gravity of this possibility incapable of producing a working nuclear notwithstanding, a more immediate threat device.(51) Intelligence sources indicate is the possibility that al-Qa'ida has that it is likely that bin Ladin received acquired and may use the technology for advice from two Pakistani nuclear producing a radiological bomb. Such scientists.(52) The precise knowledge devices (also known as "dirty bombs") that the scientists themselves possessed, consist of conventional explosives and the extent to which they chose to wrapped in radiological substances. share this knowledge with bin Ladin, si When the explosives are detonated, the not known. radioactive materials are spread across a The testimony of the former al-Qa'ida wide area, bringing death and serious member turned U.S. government illness in their wake. The nuclear states of informant Jamal Ahmad al-Fadl, the world have generally proved according to which al-Qa'ida attempted to successful in guarding the technology, purchase uranium in Sudan in the early knowledge and substances required for 1990s, is perhaps the most concrete producing nuclear weaponry. By contrast, evidence of al-Qa'ida's nuclear ambitions the materials required for producing a in the public domain.(53) There is little radiological bomb are not hard to acquire reason for doubting the bare facts of his and the technological knowledge needed story. Bin Ladin himself, in an interview not prohibitive. with Time magazine in December 1998, Many of the materials--such as admitted his nuclear ambitions in the strontium-90 and cesium-137--can be following terms: "Acquiring weapons for found in civilian industrial installations. the defense of Muslims is a religious There is strong evidence to suggest that duty. If I have indeed acquired these al-Qa'ida has made considerable weapons, then I thank God for enabling advances in this area. During his me to do so."(54) interrogation, senior al-Qa'ida member He responded similarly in an ABC Abu Zubaida reportedly confirmed that News interview in the same period, the organization has already succeeded in stating, "If I seek to acquire such constructing such a weapon.(58) Jamal weapons, this is a religious duty. How we Ahmad al-Fadl also revealed in use them is up to us."(55) Additional courtroom testimony that after much evidence of al-Qa'ida's efforts in this effort, the organization had succeeded in regard has emerged as a leaked Israeli constructing a radiological device using intelligence report related that bin Ladin stolen radioactive materials.(59) An al- paid over 2 million pounds sterling to a Qa'ida manual discovered by CNN in middleman in Kazakhstan, who promised Kabul, entitled "Super bomb," contained to deliver a "suitcase bomb" within two a working blueprint for the production years. According to the report, the and detonation of a radiological initiative was frustrated.(56) bomb.(60) Also, a Thai national was The Arabic press reported efforts by arrested in June 2003 by Thai authorities, al-Qa'ida also to acquire nuclear materials acting on an American tip-off, while in through contacts with organized crime in possession of 30kg of radioactive cesium-
38 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) The Al-Qa'ida Network and Weapons of Mass Destruction
137, possibly intended for use in a Egyptian considered by some to be the radiological bomb attack.(61) number-three figure in al-Qa'ida.(63) Additional evidence of al-Qa'ida Iranian motivation for offering support attempts to use a radiological bomb in a to al-Qa'ida is clear, especially given that terror attack came with the arrest of an Tehran is the largest state sponsor of American, converted Muslim and former terrorism. Through its Islamic Chicago gang member Jose Padilla, in Revolutionary Guards Corps, it offers June 2002, on suspicion of attempting to training, weaponry, and safe haven to a construct a radiological bomb, with the variety of terror organizations, including intention of detonating it in an American Hizballah, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas.(64) city. Padilla's arrest was apparently the The Iranian regime and the increasingly result of information given by Abu powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps in Zubaida under interrogation. Since particular remain wedded to an Islamist Padilla has yet to be charged, and is being ideology which rejects the very existence held as an "enemy combatant" at a naval of Israel on principle and maintains a facility in South Carolina, exact complete and fierce hostility to the West. information on the nature of the plan in Iran, while a signatory to the Nuclear which he was involved is not Non-Proliferation Treaty and the available.(62) Chemical and Biological Weapons To sum up this section, then, it may be Conventions, is actively seeking to said with reasonable confidence that al- develop an indigenous capability in these Qa'ida possesses weapons capabilities in three areas. Regarding its nuclear the biological, chemical and radiological ambitions, the regime in Tehran claims areas. The evidence in support of the that its efforts, in fact, merely constitute a claim that the organization has made peaceful attempt to develop nuclear fuel progress in its ambitions regarding capabilities. The evidence suggests nuclear weaponry is sketchy and otherwise. Iran has consistently sought to unreliable. hide its activities from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In June THE INTERNATIONAL ANGLE 2003, IAEA Director General Which state actors, if any, may be Muhammad Baradai stated in a report to aiding al-Qa'ida in the search for and the organization's Board of Governors development of weapons of mass that Iran had failed "to meet its destruction? Since the destruction of the obligations... with the respect of reporting Ba'athist regime in Iraq, the two states of nuclear material, the subsequent that should be looked at in considering processing and use of that material and this matter are Iran and Pakistan. the declaration of facilities where the material was stored and processed."(65) Iran Iran possesses ample non-nuclear energy The United States considers that Iran resources, and thus there is no apparent is offering safe haven to al-Qa'ida purpose to its exploration of nuclear operatives, including individuals actively energy other than as a cover under which involved in terrorism. After the attacks in it may acquire expertise and materials Riyadh in May 2003, which killed 34 necessary for weapons production.(66) people, Defense Secretary Donald The evidence of Iranian chemical and Rumsfeld openly accused Iran of biological capabilities is even less harboring the organizers of the attacks, ambiguous. Iran is considered to retain a adding that the United States considered stockpile of weaponized chemical agents, this to be in itself an act of terrorism. despite the fact that Tehran has been a Among the al-Qa'ida operatives offered signatory to the Chemical Weapons shelter by Iran is Saif al-Adel, an Convention since 1997. Similarly, the
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U.S. government considers that Iran has Pakistan produced biological agents and possesses Pakistan, under President Pervez a "limited" ability to deploy them. Once Musharraf, is an additional source of again, Iran has sought to conceal concern, despite its pro-Western development in this area within its orientation in terms of official policy. extensive civilian bio-technical and According to open-source evidence, pharmaceutical industry. In a recent non- elements within Pakistan continue to compliance report, nevertheless, the U.S. support Islamist forces in Afghanistan government determined that Iran is and Kashmir.(68) It is also suspected that capable of producing "at least bin Ladin has found refuge in the so- rudimentary" biological warheads for a called Federally Administered Tribal variety of delivery systems.(67) areas close to the border with This combination of an Islamist Afghanistan.(69) Concern regarding regime known for harboring and offering Pakistan centers on the combination of assistance to terrorists, and an established Pakistan's known non-conventional non-conventional capability would seem capabilities--most importantly, its nuclear to make Iran the most likely candidate for capability--and the known sympathy of affording al-Qa'ida aid in the significant elements in the Pakistani development of its own non-conventional security services for militant Islamist program. At least as far as open sources ideas and organizations. indicate, however, no evidence has so far During Operation Enduring Freedom, come to light of systematic cooperation in U.S. forces discovered documentation this regard between Tehran and al-Qa'ida. which revealed the presence of two There are a number of possible reasons Pakistani nuclear experts--Sultan for this. Iranian support for Islamist Bashirudeen Ahmad and Abdul Majid, in insurgent groups, while no doubt Kandahar at a time when bin Ladin had informed by Islamist ideology, is not also been there.(70) Under interrogation divorced from the needs and interests of by the FBI, the two admitted that they the Iranian state. Its extreme rhetoric had been present in Kandahar, but notwithstanding, Iran does not seek at the insisted that their visit was connected to a present time to enter into an apocalyptic humanitarian organization with which confrontation with the United States and they were involved. No conclusive the West. There is certainly no support evidence to the contrary emerged, and the among the Iranian public for such a two were eventually released. move. Consequently, Iran has good Leakages and theft by Pakistani reason for caution regarding cooperation nuclear scientists are a matter of on non-conventional weaponry with al- record.(71) So far, it is clear that Qa'ida, an organization not restricted by information has been provided on the considerations of geography or production of weapons of mass pragmatism, and committed to the idea of destruction by such means to Iran, Libya global jihad. and North Korea. Indeed, reports indicate It is therefore perfectly feasible that considerable panic in the Pakistani Iran may continue with a policy of scientific and military communities at selective assistance to al-Qa'ida, allowing Colonel Qadhafi's recent announcement the organization some access to Iranian of the discontinuance of Libya's WMD territory, while keeping its non- program. They feared that the extent of conventional programs hermetically Pakistani aid to Libya on this would now sealed from involvement with non-state become apparent.(72) clients. The extent of complicity of the highest levels in Pakistan in this process is becoming clearer. Pakistan has been
40 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) The Al-Qa'ida Network and Weapons of Mass Destruction revealed as the intellectual and material globe will eventually bring about the fall hub of a loose alliance of countries of the region's "godless" regimes. seeking to develop clandestine nuclear Events in Iraq and Saudi Arabia are weapons programs. This alliance includes testimony to the extent to which the Iran and North Korea, and at one time organization has enjoyed success in using also involved Libya. But the violence to place its agenda at the center technological know-how and material of world affairs. Terrorist violence is came from Pakistan.(73) The fact that it used to inspire Muslims, demonstrate the was able to happen at a time when vulnerability of the seemingly powerful Musharraf repeatedly issued assurances West, cause disruption, and instill an that Pakistan's WMD capabilities were atmosphere of crisis and insecurity in effectively controlled by the army gives society. cause for concern. Al-Qa'ida's links to the As such, it should not automatically Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET or Jamaat al- be assumed that the possession of Dawa) organization, which is supported weapons of mass destruction by al-Qa'ida by some members of the scientific elite in must imply their imminent use. The Pakistan, would be the most likely route strategy is one of "a thousand cuts," of for the organization to attempt to tap into incremental, ongoing attacks, as Pakistani WMD knowledge. LET described by bin Ladin.(76) Should a members have close access to members single attack be too extensive and of Pakistan's military and intelligence apocalyptic, it would lead to a more establishment.(74) determined response against the organization, and thus, could even prove CONCLUSIONS counter-productive. It might be added The working assumption of that the very perception among its intelligence professionals is that the use enemies that the network possesses a by al-Qa'ida of weapons of mass non-conventional capability is in itself a destruction is a matter of "when" rather potent weapon in the hands of al-Qa'ida. than "if." Certainly, the organization If the goal, or one of the goals, is the wishes to acquire a capability in this area spreading of uncertainty, insecurity, and and to a considerable extent appears to disruption among the populations of have already done so. The question of the Western democracies, then such a actual use of such weapons, however, perception is of significance indeed. remains worthy of consideration. Another element to be considered is In an interview given to al-Jazira, the very great effectiveness that al-Qa'ida senior al-Qa'ida activist Ramzi Bin al- has already demonstrated using Shibh depicted a long-term strategy conventional means, as opposed to the which by its very nature would involve a relatively primitive nature, as far as we certain restraint in the use of weapons know, of the WMD in its possession and and the level of destruction.(75) It should its ability to use them (e.g. one could always be born in mind that al-Qa'ida compare the devastation of the September employs violence in the service of an idea 11 to the subsequent anthrax attacks in and as part of a political strategy, and not the United States). This may lead the simply for destruction as an end in itself. organization, for the moment at least, to The organization is pursuing a long-term prefer to keep within the boundaries of its strategy designed to bring about an proven competence, rather than risk using "awakening" of Muslims worldwide. WMD. According to bin al-Shibh, for Eventually, it is hoped that this example, the organization cancelled a awakening and the consequent growth of planned attack on a nuclear power plant militant Islamist movements across the because it feared unforeseen and perhaps uncontrollable results.(77) In this respect,
Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) 41 Jonathan Spyer the motivation for not using WMD, while "Deconstructing the Chem-Bio Threat: keeping the perception of its possession Testimony for the Senate Foreign as a handy weapon of propaganda and Relations Committee," March 19, 2002. psychological warfare is clear. At the 3. Ibid. same time, an employment of WMD 4. Jean Chichizola, "Les Islamistes which resulted in a limited number of preparaient une arme chimique," Le casualties would severely dent the fear Figaro, December 18, 2002. and panic factor associated with the 5. Eliza Manningham-Buller, Speech perception that the network possesses a given at conference on "The Oversight of non-conventional capability. Hence, Intelligence and Security," Royal United conventional attacks, causing maximum Services Institute, London, June 17, 2003 disruption, will certainly continue.
42 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) The Al-Qa'ida Network and Weapons of Mass Destruction in the World," Time Magazine,
Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) 43 Jonathan Spyer
Eric Croddy, Richard Pilch, "Ricin Found 51. Ibid. in London: An al-Qaida Connection?" 52. Arnaud de Borchgrave, "So Many Monterey Center for Nonproliferation Fingers on the Trigger," Washington studies, January 23, 2003. Times, December 30, 2003.
44 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 3 (September 2004) The Al-Qa'ida Network and Weapons of Mass Destruction of the IAEA to the Board of Governors International Relations, October 29, (GOV/2003/40), June 6, 2003, p. 7. 2003. 66. Ambassador Kenneth C Brill, "U.S.
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