Flood Risk Management for Long Term Resilience 97 7 Bibliography 101
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Public Disclosure Authorized SOMALIA 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized FEBRUARY 2020 Disclaimer This assessment report only estimates the impacts and needs arising from the floods during the period October to November 2019, covering the flood affected areas determined by the Federal Government of Somalia. Photos courtesy of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). Design and layout by The Word Express, Inc. SOMALIA 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT FEBRUARY 2020 Table of Contents Foreword Federal Government of Somalia iv Foreword World Bank v Acknowledgements vi List of Figures vii List of Tables vii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ix 1 Executive Summary 1 2 Introduction 7 3 Rainfall Analysis 13 4 Macroeconomic Impact Analysis 17 5 Sectoral Impact and Needs Assessment 21 Agriculture: Crops and Livestock 21 Housing 46 Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 54 Education 58 Health 63 Transport 71 Disaster Risk Management 79 Displacement 85 6 The Way Forward: Flood Risk Management for Long Term Resilience 97 7 Bibliography 101 SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | III I | Foreword Federal Government of Somalia Since 1990, Somalia has experienced 30 climate- Somalia launched a three-month $72.5 million Flood related hazards; 12 droughts and 18 floods—tripling Response Plan to mobilise additional resources. the number of climates related hazards experienced between 1970 and 1990. In 2017, a severe drought In light of the above recurrent disasters, an inter- left Somalia on the verge of famine. In 2019, a de- ministerial committee was appointed by the Prime layed and erratic 2019 Gu’ rainy season resulted in the Minister at the peak of October 2019 floods emer- poorest harvest since the 2011 famine and flooding. gency. The committee spearheaded by Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management In October 2019, various regions across Somalia ex- (MoHDMA) and based in the Office of the Prime perienced severe levels of flooding. The Hirshabelle Minister were tasked to monitor ongoing develop- State was the most impacted, particularly in the ments and to coordinate emergency efforts. Beletweyn District and other town along the river, when the Shabelle River burst its banks as a result of heavy rains. After the initial response was completed, the com- mittee requested the World Bank to conduct this In response to the crisis and within its limited ca- in-depth assessment in order to break the cycle of pabilities, the Federal Government of Somalia, floods in the region. Our government has been together with its vibrant civil society, business com- working closely with the World Bank to undertake munity, the diaspora and the international partners, the assessment. We hope that the sectoral recov- fast tracked the provision of critical lifesaving as- ery strategies and flood risk management framework sistance to respond to the worsening situation. proposed in this assessment will provide a roadmap to long-term resilience against recurrent floods and On 29 October 2019, the Prime Minister of the Federal that the people of Somalia will no longer have to en- Government of Somalia appealed to the interna- dure the lasting damages from such disasters in the tional partners to support the Government’s efforts future. to prevent the crisis from worsening by providing critical lifesaving assistance in the most severely af- fected areas and by investing in longer term solutions Hamza Said Hamza programming components in the emergency re- Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and sponse to avert future crisis. On 23 November 2019, Disaster Management the United Nations and the Federal Government of Federal Government of Somalia SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | IV II | Foreword World Bank In October 2019, the Federal Government of Somalia Despite multiple challenges from many directions, launched an urgent call to action to respond to wide- Somalia is on the path to stability. With the nor- spread flooding triggered by abnormal Deyr rains malization of relations with International Financial affecting over half a million people. Under the over- Institutions through the Heavily Indebted Poor all leadership of the Office of the Prime Minister Country Initiative (HIPC), new opportunities arise with the federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and for investment in the National Development Plan Disaster Management, the World Bank and part- (2020–2024) to generate economic opportunity ners profiled the flooding with the release of the and poverty reduction while focusing on inclusiv- Somalia rapid Flood Impact Needs Assessment ity, resilience-building, and durable solutions to (FINA), an extensive assessment of the flood im- displacement. Importantly, this includes the contin- pacts and recovery and resilience-building needs. ued support through the Famine Action Mechanism It is our hope that the FINA will help organiza- (FAM) which should help position the country for an- tions and government—both at the national and ticipatory finance based on improved early warning Federal Member State level—to prioritize invest- capacity to ensure the country has both the data and ments and inform where resources are best allocated the instruments to mitigate the impact of repeated to support an integrated approach to flood recovery. natural shocks. The successful collaboration showcases the power of We are hopeful that the FINA will help the govern- partnership to support a government-led response, ment maximize these opportunities, while advancing while making resilience-building a key underpinning our sustained commitment to support Somali-led of the approach. As Somalia braces for increasingly development. intense and frequent climate-related shocks, main- ly drought, flooding, and recently locust infestations, it will become increasingly important to enable ef- fective overall government leadership as well as the partnerships with civil society and private sector ac- Hugh Riddell tors that enable holistic and sustainable disaster World Bank Country Manager management responses. for Somalia SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | V III | Acknowledgements The FINA was prepared under the overall leadership Polyak, Jennifer Counter, Olumide Lawal, Khadar of and the Office of the Prime Minister and in part- Sh. Mohamed Nur, Mohamed Mohamud Abdi, nership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Mohamed Musse Adan, Ahmed Mohamed Hassan, Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Mustaf Ibrahim Adan, Khadra Yasin Nageye, Ahmed Somalia (FGS). It was undertaken with strategic sup- Mohamed Moalim, Mohamed Dubat Mohamed, port from the World Bank Group, the United Nations Abdulqadir Omar Hirsi, Abdiweli Suleyman, Abdullahi and other partners, in particular OCHA, FAO, UNDP, Ahmed Sh, Abubakar, Ali Haji, Abdirahman Omar, IOM, and the EU. Financial support has been provid- Mustaf Ibrahim Adan. This report benefited great- ed by the World Bank. Ipsos provided remote sensing ly from periodic discussions with Christopher Print, and survey support. Ugo Leonardi and Danielle Molla of FAO. This assessment gratefully acknowledges the hard The overall assessment was led by Ayaz Parvez and work of the World Bank and the Government of co-led by Rina Meutia from the World Bank and Somalia’s sectoral experts which will contribute to Muhumed Hussein and Guled Korfa Garane from the the efforts in building the resilience of the people of Office of the Prime Minister of Somalia, under the stra- Somalia following the 2019 floods. tegic direction of Hugh Riddell, World Bank Country Manager of Somalia and Hamza Saif Hamza, Minister The individuals directly contributing to the report of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management of are Muhammad Abdullah Ali Malik, Tariro Tserayi, Federal Government of Somalia. Toshiro Sonoda, Gianni Zanini, Hussein Haji, Stephen D’Alessandro, Shahrzad Mobasher Fard, Tesfaye Excellent administrative support was provided by Bekalu, Chantal Richey, Narayanan E., Naoko Ohno, Seraphine Nsabimana and Eugenia Nafula Konya, Huma Ali Waheed, Verena Phipps, Benjamin Kushner, with a very special thanks to the Mogadishu Security Nadim Saghir, Howard Bell, Masroor Ahmad, Mark Team led by George Griffin. SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | VI IV | List of Figures Figure 1: Belet Weyne Town Submerged in Water 1 Figure 2: Flood Extent Lower Shabelle and Hiraan Regions 8 Figure 3: Flood Extent Hiraan Region and Belet Weyne 9 Figure 4: Somalia Mean Rainfall (mm) April 2009–November 2016 14 Figure 5: Day Cumulate Rainfall Forecast – October 2019 14 Figure 6: Monthly Trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI, April 2007=100) 20 Figure 7: Month-over-month Percentage Change in the CPI 20 Figure 8: NDVI for Somalia – Relative Difference to Long-Term Average 28 Figure 9: NDVI for southcentral Somalia – Relative Difference to December 2018 29 Figure 10: Locusts Swarms in East Africa 30 Figure 11: NDVI Change for Non-Cultivated Areas – December 2019 over 10-year LTA 33 Figure 12: NDVI Change for Non-Cultivated Areas – Deyr 2019 over Deyr 2018 34 Figure 13: NDVI Change for Non-Cultivated Areas – Deyr 2019 over Deyr 2019 40 Figure 14: Total Number of Public Schools by Region 60 Figure 15: Health Facilities by Region 66 Figure 16: Somalia Administrative Map 74 Figure 17: Percentage of Population in Urban and Rural Areas 82 SOMALIA — 2019 FLOODS IMPACT AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT | VII V |