Rift Valley Institute Meeting Report Nairobi Forum, 22 February 2013

POLITICS NOW Somalia's Jubbaland: Past, present and potential futures

an ‘ethno-state’ like Puntland, because it is not Key points populated by a single clan. Some view Jubbaland as a § Due to its natural resources and location, Darod clan state, but when the large number of non- Jubbaland has the potential to be one of Darod populations along the Jubba river and in east Somalia’s richest regions, but conflict has bank communities taken into account, the Darod clan kept it chronically unstable for over two probably comprise 50-60 per cent of the total decades. population. He warned that, if Jubbaland is treated as a Darod state and power-sharing is institutionalized § The regions of Jubbaland are not linked by along those lines, then other residents of the region road and have no history of shared would feel disenfranchised and could turn to al- administration. As an administrative unit, Shabaab. Jubbaland is not likely to be functional. Is Jubbaland viable as a federal state? First, for § The Somali constitution provides no clear Jubbaland to succeed as such a state, it needs some guidance on how newly declared federal history of shared governance and cooperation—and states are to be created, or what their it does not have such a history. Distant Jubbaland relations with the central government communities are very unlikely to respect claims of should be. authority from Kismayo. § The environmental consequences of the charcoal trade are having a negative impact A second criterion for judging whether a region could on livelihoods and food security. become a functional federal state is its economy and specifically its infrastructural links. Although the River § Evidence from neighbouring countries is that Jubba appears to integrate the region vertically, its federalism and devolution, if not handled horizontal links to other regions are much stronger. carefully, can exacerbate communal and The economies of Gedo region and Middle and Lower political tensions over resources. Jubba share little in common. Roads are impassable § There is concern among Somalis that their during the rainy season, making it difficult for people neighbours are not intervening in good faith. and goods to move between these regions. Menkhaus added that the term ‘Jubbaland’ came into

common use 10-15 years ago, reflecting an aspiration Participants for a regional polity in the trans-Jubba area. For the Cedric Barnes International Crisis Group (Chair) competing regional power-brokers, however, it has Ken Menkhaus Davidson College, US, and RVI Fellow always been a code for Kismayo, the region’s main Degan Ali Executive Director, Adeso city, control of which was the true ambition. Nikolai Hutchinson Pact Kenya Menkhaus cautioned against thinking of Jubbaland as Matt Bryden Director, Sahan Research an administrative unit with authority centralized in Kismayo. Instead, it should be seen a series of

municipalities with common systems of local Background governance. He stressed that insistence on Jubbaland Ken Menkhaus noted the perception shared by the as an overarching authoritative administrative unit international community and by neighbouring would generate conflict. It could, however, serve as a countries that Jubbaland is an emerging federal state viable source of regional representation at the in Somalia. But, he asked, does Jubbaland have the central level. key features, like those of Somaliland and Puntland, that would enable it to become a functional administrative unit? Jubbaland is not, he suggested, Rift Valley Institute | Meeting Report | Nairobi Forum | Somalia’s Jubbaland | 19 March 2012 | Page 2 of 4

Jubbaland’s Environmental Crisis alternatives. Economic growth and environmental protection are hindered by the lack of proper Degan Ali addressed the environment and specifically infrastructure. Some parts of Jubbaland, such as the charcoal trade, which has become a major Lower Jubba and Badade, are among the most political and economic issue in Jubbaland. The isolated parts of Somalia and are completely cut off charcoal trade in southern and south central Somalia during the rainy season for three to six months. This was once only a small part of the economy, supplying increases the prices of goods and services, which the household fuel. The trade grew over time, especially communities are unable afford. Another impediment after the fall of the Siyad Barre government in the to food security is the lack of investment the fishery early 1990s, when environmental sector. Ali’s organisation, Adeso controls collapsed. General ‘Unlike in the north, where (African Development Solut- Mohamed Farrah Aideed the charcoal trade still ions), plans to conduct research imposed a ban on the trade in on the impact of illegal fishing the early 1990s, but his son, primarily supplies local on Somali fishing communities. Hussein Aideed, failed to sustain demand, the Kismayo trade She noted that NATO forces are this, giving rise to a large-scale feeds the demand from the now guarding the Somali seas, expansion of the trade. but their presence is also Middle East, essentially Unlike in the north, where the causing fear among the fishing charcoal trade still primarily making it the new “black communities. supplies local demand, the gold” of the south.’ Finally, Ali discussed the Kismayo trade feeds the demand marginalization of communities from the Middle East, essentially Degan Ali who have been neglected in making it the new ‘black gold’ of Jubbaland’s brokered agree- the south. With a lack of income-generating ments, namely the Bejuni, Boni and the various alternatives and no governmental structures to ‘Bantu’ groups.1 Their economic marginalization ari- enforce the ban, the trade has become the mainstay ses from the low level of remittances from the of the local informal economy in the south. Ali agreed diaspora and the consequent higher dependency on with Menkhaus that Kismayo is a coveted prize, due natural resources. It is these communities that bear to the revenue generated by the charcoal trade. It is the brunt of environmental degradation. estimated that US$ 25-50 million is earned annually by authorities who control the port from taxes on the trade. Cross-border Issues People, she added, do not understand the link Nikolai Hutchinson explained that Jubbaland does between environmental degradation and food not exist in isolation from its neighbours. Kenyan security. Land degradation border communities have strong interdependent relationships contributes to an environmental ‘Jubbaland does not exist in crisis that has a significant impact with communities in Gedo, as on humanitarian outcomes in isolation from its neighbours. well as Middle and Lower Jubba. Somalia, particularly in the south Kenyan border communities In periods of security trade and the Jubba regions. routes, towns and settlements have strong interdependent have proliferated. Pact, he said, In addition to the charcoal trade, relationships with supports cross-border the exploitation of wildlife in communities to engage jointly in Jubbaland is also a major communities in Gedo, as well as Middle and Lower Jubba.’ trade and to share access to problem. Jubbaland is among the services and rangelands during few areas with wildlife in the dry season. Somalia, primarily because of the Nikolai Hutchinson Boni forest. On the Kenyan side Over the last 20 years, of the border, the forest is protected but in Somalia it communities in Somali towns have experienced is a no-man’s-land with no regulations. numerous administrations. Pact has had to sensitize Somalis, Ali added, have no control over the external causes of environmental change but they can control 1 Somali Bantu has become a collective name for diverse internal causes such as the charcoal trade. subsistence farming peoples who live along Somalia’s Jubba Communities think that the economic benefits and Shabelle rivers, some of whom are descended from outweigh the costs, because they only consider the Bantu; Ken Menkhaus, ‘Bantu Ethnic Identity in Somalia’, short-term gains due to limited economic Annales d’Ethiopie 19 (2003): 323-39.

Rift Valley Institute | Meeting Report | Nairobi Forum | Somalia’s Jubbaland | 19 March 2012 | Page 3 of 4 them, including al-Shabaab, on the relationships unresolved. If not addressed, the region will remain between the border communities and the ways in the most contested in Somalia. which they support the livelihoods, security and The IGAD process was initiated in an attempt to unite resilience of communities inside Somalia. From a various interests in Jubbaland, motivated by peace-building perspective, the aim has been to Ethiopian and Kenyan interests in cross-border prevent security incidents, such as theft, turning into security. Bryden agreed with Menkhaus that Kismayo clan conflicts. While there are many grassroots is a microcosm of Jubbaland, whose interests are opportunities to build upon, represented in the port city. there have also been negative These issues need to be trends such as the recent spread ‘The term “Jubbaland” came addressed holistically, to ensure of insecurity into Kenya. Kenyan into common use 10-15 years that Ethiopia and Kenya have elections and the devolution ago, reflecting an aspiration secure borders. Both countries process have intensified political have in the past been aligned competition, creating new for a regional polity in the with different armed forces, so tensions. trans-Jubba area. For the cooperation from the Ethiopian cross-border alliances competing regional power- governments in Addis Ababa and have also had an impact on brokers, however, it has Nairobi was necessary for any tensions between some Somali always been a code for successful move into Kismayo. clans in the Gedo region. Most The stabilization strategy had Somali communities in Jubbaland Kismayo.’ been initiated in February, are more affected by local Ken Menkhaus following the first meeting in insecurity and the local economy, May 2012, which agreed on a which need management, than commitment to engage in a by the Kismayo economy. The fragmentation of political process, a framework agenda and the traditional clan structures, the proliferation of elders representation and inclusivity of all groups in the and the more recent co-opting of religious leaders process. have led to new insecurities and pressures on During subsequent months, a draft charter for a resources. Devolution and the emphasis on building Jubbaland administration was negotiated, which stable administrative zones in Kenya, as in Ethiopia, is would be harmonized with the federal constitution. a positive opportunity but the large investment in Other areas covered included technical consultations natural resources brings rapid change that puts on security, reconciliation and resource pressures on the communities. management. Lastly, there were preparations for a External Kenyan and Ethiopian factors have a big conference to put the new administration into place. influence on communities in Somalia. For The new government, however, raised reservations Hutchinson, the IGAD initiative is important because about the process and issued counter-proposals. IGAD it tries to avert external pressures contributing to the member states have since been in consultations on creation of of parallel structures. how to proceed. Nevertheless, But the initiative needs to be the technical committee carefully coordinated and ‘The fundamental issues of comprising of over 30 groups harmonized with the new Federal equitable sharing, resource moved to Kismayo, without Government in Mogadishu. IGAD involvement, to continue management and community preparing for the conference. perceptions remain Current Jubbaland politics Bryden presented two scenarios and IGAD unresolved. If not addressed, on the potential future of the region will remain the Jubbaland. In the first, the Matt Bryden noted that the most contested in Somalia.’ process fails, due to the fact that discussion was timely, in light of this is a highly contested region. the planned conference to Matt Bryden There are many interest groups determine the political direction involved and, with 500 delegates of Jubbaland scheduled to begin due to attend the conference, the next day. Bryden noted that, regardless of the consensus will be hard to achieve. In this scenario, it armed groups such as Al-Shabaab and Ras Kamboni, is likely that the Federal Government will intervene which have been fighting for control over Kismayo, and appoint the local leadership. This situation will the fundamental issues of equitable sharing, resource necessitate agreement between the armed forces on management and community perceptions remain Rift Valley Institute | Meeting Report | Nairobi Forum | Somalia’s Jubbaland | 19 March 2012 | Page 4 of 4 the ground to support this approach and more time through federalism or devolution in Ethiopia or to implement it. Kenya. In Somalia, it could easily contribute to further exclusions and the creation of local kingpins, as In the second scenario, the process succeeds and opposed to being an empowering process. Some of there is a Jubbaland administration, which leads to a the lessons to be learnt include giving consideration bifurcated outcome. What shall be the to community interests through administration’s relationship with a decentralization of the Federal Government? On the ‘Pastoralists and farmers in participation. Local inter-clan one hand, it could be a positive the region feel insecure about and inter-community relationship—as in Puntland—in participation, which include which the two work together, their land use, particularly in small policy agreements, helps negotiate on shared revenues relation to other communities to build confidence among and establish a security chain of with more political and social people. command. On the other hand, the government could oppose capital. This issue has not Matt Bryden said that there the new administration, creating been clearly addressed.’ were suspicions that Jubbaland’s a difficult situation with some neighbours were not intervening members of the Jubbaland Nikolai Hutchinson in good faith: that Kenya is communities being aligned with interested in both a de facto the government and parliament but at odds with the annexation of part of Jubbaland and the control of authorities in Jubbaland. Bryden concluded by saying Kismayo, while Ethiopia wants to export its own that this is a critical time for Jubbaland: this issue is at federalism to Somalia. Bryden thought that these the centre of the debate over whether federalism is suspicions are overblown, pointing out that, under the right way to move Somalia forward. IGAD’s auspices, there was active consultation

between the governments. He concluded that it Discussion remains to be seen whether the process will continue to be inclusive—without the Ras Kamboni group, that Ken Menkhaus said it was unfortunate that currently control Kismayo, having too much say. Jubbaland’s rich resources are producing conflict The audience posed several additional questions: on instead of peace. When he worked with the United the policy position of international actors dealing Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM) in the early with the Jubbaland process; Jubbaland clan statistics; 1990s, he went to Afmadow, where he met some recommendations on dealing with the charcoal trade; clan elders and asked them why they seemed to have whether Jubbaland is a test for the new Federal given up the struggle for control of Kismayo. They Government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud; responded: ‘We don’t need Kismayo, we’ve got especially if IGAD were to withdraw from the Kenya.’ By then, the livestock economy of Afmadow process; and the reasons for the absence of had been reoriented towards the Kenya market. international actors in Gedo and other areas. Menkhaus said it is a tragedy that Jubbaland has such high potential that cannot be utilized until the conflict is ended. Degan Ali responded to a question on whether the UN charcoal ban has had any effect. She pointed to the lack of government support when the president called for a ‘balanced approach’ and for acknowledgement of the resources that businessmen have invested in the trade. Ali said she was pessimistic about the government being committed Credits to this ban because, when it comes to negotiations, © 2013 Rift Valley Institute (RVI). Published under the charcoal trade is the easiest issue on which to Creative Commons Licence 3.0 and available for free reach compromise, especially compared to wider download at www.riftvalley.net. ‘Somalia's question of political power sharing. Jubbaland: Past, present and potential futures’ is the record of a meeting held under the auspices of the On a question about land, Nikolai Hutchinson said RVI Nairobi Forum at the British Institute in Eastern that pastoralists and farmers in the region feel Africa on 22 February 2013. It was written by Ndanu insecure about their land use, particularly in relation Mung’ala, RVI Programme Officer, Nairobi. to other communities with more political and social capital. This issue has not been clearly addressed