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Inter-cluster Rapid Assessment Report IDPs in Afmadow town, Lower Juba region 17-23 July, 2016 Background Afmadow town which is located 157 km from Dhobley and 120km from Kismayo sea port city has been experiencing man- made and natural disasters including drought, water problems, water borne diseases, IDP influx from Middle Juba and other locations as a result of insecurity, floods and the search for humanitarian assistance. Afmadow town was recovered from “Al Shabaab by AMISOM/SNA on June, 2012. At the beginning of June 2016, the Jubba River broke its banks and floods affected an estimated 5,000 households (30,000people) in 45 villages in Bu’ale and Jilib districts mostly along the river including farmlands according to local elders.. As the result an estimated 800 IDPs households ( 4,800 people) mainly of Somali Bantu origin arrived in Afmadow resulting in an increase in number of IDPs by 64 per cent in the town to a total of 7,900 people. Food, WASH, Shelter/NFIs, improved nutrition and health services remain the key priority needs. From 17-23 July, with OCHA in the lead, humanitarian partners including WFP, IOM,WASDA, ARC, Adeso and WRRS and the Food Security and Livelihoods, Health, Education, and WASH cluster focal points, conducted a rapid assessment in Afmadow town to better understand the humanitarian situation of the IDPs and refugee returnees from Kenya and identify their immediate needs. General observations According to the local authority, the population of Afmadow town is estimated at 14,750 households (89,000 people) According to the local administration and IDPs leadership nearly 70-80 per cent of new arrivals of IDPs are women and children. -
Somalia's Jubbaland: Past, Present and Potential Futures
Rift Valley Institute Meeting Report Nairobi Forum, 22 February 2013 POLITICS NOW Somalia's Jubbaland: Past, present and potential futures an ‘ethno-state’ liKe Puntland, because it is not Key points populated by a single clan. Some view Jubbaland as a § Due to its natural resources and location, Darod clan state, but when the large number of non- Jubbaland has the potential to be one of Darod populations along the Jubba river and in east Somalia’s richest regions, but conflict has bank communities taKen into account, the Darod clan kept it chronically unstable for over two probably comprise 50-60 per cent of the total decades. population. He warned that, if Jubbaland is treated as a Darod state and power-sharing is institutionalized § The regions of Jubbaland are not linked by along those lines, then other residents of the region road and have no history of shared would feel disenfranchised and could turn to al- administration. As an administrative unit, Shabaab. Jubbaland is not likely to be functional. Is Jubbaland viable as a federal state? First, for § The Somali constitution provides no clear Jubbaland to succeed as such a state, it needs some guidance on how newly declared federal history of shared governance and cooperation—and states are to be created, or what their it does not have such a history. Distant Jubbaland relations with the central government communities are very unlikely to respect claims of should be. authority from Kismayo. § The environmental consequences of the charcoal trade are having a negative impact A second criterion for judging whether a region could on livelihoods and food security. -
Countering Terrorism in East Africa: the U.S
Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response Lauren Ploch Analyst in African Affairs November 3, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41473 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response Summary The United States government has implemented a range of programs to counter violent extremist threats in East Africa in response to Al Qaeda’s bombing of the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998 and subsequent transnational terrorist activity in the region. These programs include regional and bilateral efforts, both military and civilian. The programs seek to build regional intelligence, military, law enforcement, and judicial capacities; strengthen aviation, port, and border security; stem the flow of terrorist financing; and counter the spread of extremist ideologies. Current U.S.-led regional counterterrorism efforts include the State Department’s East Africa Regional Strategic Initiative (EARSI) and the U.S. military’s Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA), part of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). The United States has also provided significant assistance in support of the African Union’s (AU) peace operations in Somalia, where the country’s nascent security forces and AU peacekeepers face a complex insurgency waged by, among others, Al Shabaab, a local group linked to Al Qaeda that often resorts to terrorist tactics. The State Department reports that both Al Qaeda and Al Shabaab pose serious terrorist threats to the United States and U.S. interests in the region. Evidence of linkages between Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, highlight another regional dimension of the threat posed by violent extremists in the area. -
AVSI in Somalia Origin of the Project
AICS – AID 11248 Emergency Action for the resilience of families and communities affected by drought in Jubaland June – December 2018 AVSI in Somalia Origin of the project • AVSI has worked in Kenya since 1986 • In Dadaab refugees’ camp since 2009 (BPRM donor) – Education and ToTs – Dialogue with local and national authorities – Facilitation for repatriation to Somalia (Lower Juba) / technical assistance to MoE • Drought affecting Lower Juba, specifically Afmadow, Qooqaani, Dobley and Diif, in 2017 AVSI in Somalia Target area (1) – Jubaland Federal State, Lower Juba AVSI in Somalia Target area (2): Afmadow District AVSI in Somalia Overview on the project General objective: To contribute to families’ resilience, residents, internally displaced and returnees affected by drought in the Lower Juba region in Somalia Specific objective: To increase the resilience of families, young people and communities in the Afmadow District by strengthening capacity and services in the areas of food security, WASH and protection Activities started: 12 June 2018 Duration: 6 months Partner: WRRS (Wamo Relief and Rehabilitation Services) Budget: 476,062 € of which € 450.567 AICS contribution AVSI in Somalia Beneficiaries Sector Direct beneficiaries Indirect beneficiaries Total Agriculture and food 1.900 2.850 4.750 security WASH 13.700 20.550 34.250 Protection 5.200 7.800 13.000 Total 20.800 31.200 52.000 AVSI in Somalia Launch of the project With local authorities and other stakeholders https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=i6zsyGfDDes AVSI in Somalia Sector 1 – Agriculture and food security Trainings on ASAL (Arid and Semi-Arid) techniques and alternative food production for 1,306 small farmers : 85% of the households have embraced the skills acquired and are using to increase their household’s food consumption. -
Gedo Intercluster Initial Investigation – September
INTER -AGENCY DROUGHT ASSESSMENT IN LOWER JUBA REGION OF SOMALIA JANUARY 2017 INTER-AGENCY DROUGHT ASSESSMENT IN LOWER JUBA REGION – JANUARY 2017 Table of contents Executive summary -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Key findings --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Recommendations --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Acronyms, abbreviations and definitions of Somalia terminologies --------------------------- 6 Acknowledgement ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Introduction /context of the inter-agency assessment -------------------------------------------- 8 Methodology ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9 Assessment findings -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Impact of drought ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10 Findings by cluster ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Food Security and Livelihoods --------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Education ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12 Nutrition -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 Water, Sanitation -
Somalia: Al-Shabaab – It Will Be a Long War
Policy Briefing Africa Briefing N°99 Nairobi/Brussels, 26 June 2014 Somalia: Al-Shabaab – It Will Be a Long War I. Overview Despite the recent military surge against Somalia’s armed Islamist extremist and self- declared al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Shabaab, its conclusive “defeat” remains elusive. The most likely scenario – already in evidence – is that its armed units will retreat to small- er, remote and rural enclaves, exploiting entrenched and ever-changing clan-based competition; at the same time, other groups of radicalised and well-trained individ- uals will continue to carry out assassinations and terrorist attacks in urban areas, in- cluding increasingly in neighbouring countries, especially Kenya. The long connec- tion between Al-Shabaab’s current leadership and al-Qaeda is likely to strengthen. A critical breakthrough in the fight against the group cannot, therefore, be achieved by force of arms, even less so when it is foreign militaries, not the Somali National Army (SNA), that are in the lead. A more politically-focused approach is required. Even as its territory is squeezed in the medium term, Al-Shabaab will continue to control both money and minds. It has the advantage of at least three decades of Salafi-Wahhabi proselytisation (daawa) in Somalia; social conservatism is already strongly entrenched – including in Somaliland and among Somali minorities in neigh- bouring states – giving it deep reservoirs of fiscal and ideological support, even with- out the intimidation it routinely employs. An additional factor is the group’s proven ability to adapt, militarily and politically – flexibility that is assisted by its leadership’s freedom from direct accountability to any single constituency. -
The Al Qaeda Network a New Framework for Defining the Enemy
THE AL QAEDA NETWORK A NEW FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING THE ENEMY KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN SEPTEMBER 2013 THE AL QAEDA NETWORK A NEW FRAMEWORK FOR DEFINING THE ENEMY KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN SEPTEMBER 2013 A REPORT BY AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ABOUT US About the Author Katherine Zimmerman is a senior analyst and the al Qaeda and Associated Movements Team Lead for the Ameri- can Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. Her work has focused on al Qaeda’s affiliates in the Gulf of Aden region and associated movements in western and northern Africa. She specializes in the Yemen-based group, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, al Shabaab. Zimmerman has testified in front of Congress and briefed Members and congressional staff, as well as members of the defense community. She has written analyses of U.S. national security interests related to the threat from the al Qaeda network for the Weekly Standard, National Review Online, and the Huffington Post, among others. Acknowledgments The ideas presented in this paper have been developed and refined over the course of many conversations with the research teams at the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. The valuable insights and understandings of regional groups provided by these teams directly contributed to the final product, and I am very grateful to them for sharing their expertise with me. I would also like to express my deep gratitude to Dr. Kimberly Kagan and Jessica Lewis for dedicating their time to helping refine my intellectual under- standing of networks and to Danielle Pletka, whose full support and effort helped shape the final product. -
Somalia Terror Threat
THECHRISTOPHER TERROR February 12, THREAT FROM THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF AL SHABAAB CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH APPENDICES AND MAPS BY KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN FEBRUARY 12, 2010 A REPORT BY THE CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT OF THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH February 12, 2010 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 IMPORTANT GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS IN SOMALIA 3 NOTABLE INDIVIDUALS 4 INTRODUCTION 8 ORIGINS OF AL SHABAAB 10 GAINING CONTROL, GOVERNING, AND MAINTAINING CONTROL 14 AL SHABAAB’S RELATIONSHIP WITH AL QAEDA, THE GLOBAL JIHAD MOVEMENT, AND ITS GLOBAL IDEOLOGY 19 INTERNATIONAL RECRUITING AND ITS IMPACT 29 AL SHABAAB’S INTERNATIONAL THREATS 33 THREAT ASSESSMENT AND CONCLUSION 35 APPENDIX A: TIMELINE OF MAJOR SECURITY EVENTS IN SOMALIA 37 APPENDIX B: MAJOR SUICIDE ATTACKS AND ASSASSINATIONS CLAIMED BY OR ATTRIBUTED TO AL SHABAAB 47 NOTES 51 Maps MAP OF THE HORN OF AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST 5 POLITICAL MAP OF SOMALIA 6 MAP OF ISLAMIST-CONTROLLED AND INFLUENCED AREAS IN SOMALIA 7 www.criticalthreats.org THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH February 12, 2010 Executive Summary hree hundred people nearly died in the skies of and assassinations. Al Shabaab’s primary objectives at TMichigan on Christmas Day, 2009 when a Niger- the time of the Ethiopian invasion appeared to be ian terrorist attempted to blow up a plane destined geographically limited to Somalia, and perhaps the for Detroit. The terrorist was an operative of an al Horn of Africa. The group’s rhetoric and behavior, Qaeda franchise based in Yemen called al Qaeda in however, have shifted over the past two years reflect- the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). -
Afmadow District Detailed Site Assessment Lower Juba Region, Somalia
Afmadow district Detailed Site Assessment Lower Juba Region, Somalia Introduction Location map The Detailed Site Assessment (DSA) was triggered in the perspectives of different groups were captured2. KI coordination with the Camp Coordination and Camp responses were aggregated for each site. These were then Management (CCCM) Cluster in order to provide the aggregated further to the district level, with each site having humanitarian community with up-to-date information on an equal weight. Data analysis was done by thematic location of internally displaced person (IDP) sites, the sectors, that is, protection, water, sanitation and hygiene conditions and capacity of the sites and the humanitarian (WASH), shelter, displacement, food security, health and needs of the residents. The first round of the DSA took nutrition, education and communication. place from October 2017 to March 2018 assessing a total of 1,843 sites in 48 districts. The second round of the DSA This factsheet presents a summary of profiles of assessed sites3 in Afmadow District along with needs and priorities of took place from 1 September 2018 to 31 January 2019 IDPs residing in these sites. As the data is captured through assessing a total of 1778 sites in 57 districts. KIs, findings should be considered indicative rather than A grid pattern approach1 was used to identify all IDP generalisable. sites in a specific area. In each identified site, two key Number of assessed sites: 14 informants (KIs) were interviewed: the site manager or community leader and a women’s representative, to ensure Assessed IDP sites in Afmadow4 Coordinates: Lat. 0.6, Long. -
Winning Hearts and Minds? Examining the Relationship Between Aid and Security in Kenya Mark Bradbury and Michael Kleinman ©2010 Feinstein International Center
A PR I L 2 0 1 0 Strengthening the humanity and dignity of people in crisis through knowledge and practice Winning Hearts and Minds? Examining the Relationship Between Aid and Security in Kenya Mark Bradbury and Michael Kleinman ©2010 Feinstein International Center. All Rights Reserved. Fair use of this copyrighted material includes its use for non-commercial educational purposes, such as teaching, scholarship, research, criticism, commentary, and news reporting. Unless otherwise noted, those who wish to reproduce text and image files from this publication for such uses may do so without the Feinstein International Center’s express permission. However, all commercial use of this material and/or reproduction that alters its meaning or intent, without the express permission of the Feinstein International Center, is prohibited. Feinstein International Center Tufts University 200 Boston Ave., Suite 4800 Medford, MA 02155 USA tel: +1 617.627.3423 fax: +1 617.627.3428 fic.tufts.edu Acknowledgements The report has been written by Mark Bradbury and Michael Kleinman, who take responsibility for its contents and conclusions. We wish to thank our co-researchers Halima Shuria, Hussein A. Mahmoud, and Amina Soud for their substantive contribution to the research process. Andrew Catley, Lynn Carter, and Jan Bachmann provided insightful comments on a draft of the report. Dawn Stallard’s editorial skills made the report more readable. For reasons of confidentiality, the names of some individuals interviewed during the course of the research have been withheld. We wish to acknowledge and thank all of those who gave their time to be interviewed for the study. -
Forging Jubaland Community Perspectives on Federalism, Governance and Reconciliation
RIFT VALLEY INSTITUTE MEETING REPORT FEBRUARY 2017 Forging Jubaland Community perspectives on federalism, governance and reconciliation The Interim Jubaland President, Ahmed Mohamed Islan, addresses the delegates during his inauguration ceremony in in Kismayu on September 12, 2015. Key points Participants • A peaceful settlement in Somalia is Joanna Crouch, Somalia Programme Officer, dependent on how a new system will be Saferworld implemented, rather than which new Peter Mackenzie, Somalia Country Director, system will be adopted. Saferworld (Chair) • The establishment of Jubaland has Hassan Dirye, SOSCENSA brought improvements in security and the delivery of public services, but the Abdi Al, Programme Adviser, Saferworld concentration of both authorities and Halima Farah, Somali Women’s Solidarity external assistance in the city of Kismayo Organization has created tensions with the peripheral areas. Idris Abdi Yarre, Saferworld Partner • In Jubaland, statebuilding—involving Ayaan Addulkadir Hared, Saferworld Partner elite bargaining—has been prioritized over social reconciliation, which has Introduction marginalized less powerful clans, youth On 22 April 2016, the Rift Valley Forum hosted and women. the launch of Saferworld’s report, Forging Jubaland, Community Perspectives on Federalism, Governance and • Surveys show there is public support Reconciliation. The creation of Jubaland state in for federalism as a mechanism to bring 2013 and the controversial appointment of Sheikh decision-making and service provision Ahmed Mohamed Islam (‘Madobe’) as President closer to the people. of its interim administration, supported by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), precipitated tensions and divisions in which has been especially weak in the Gedo, Somalia. In response, the Saferworld team in middle and lower Juba regions. -
Inside Kenya's War on Terror: Breaking the Cycle of Violence in Garissa
Inside Kenya’s war on terror: breaking the cycle of violence in Garissa Christopher Wakube, Thomas Nyagah, James Mwangi and Larry Attree Inside Kenyas war on terror: The name of Garissa county in Kenya was heard all over the world after al-Shabaab shot breaking the cycle of violence dead 148 people – 142 of them students – at Garissa University College in April 2015. But the in Garissa story of the mounting violence leading up to that horrific attack, of how and why it happened, I. Attacks in Garissa: towards and of how local communities, leaders and the government came together in the aftermath the precipice to improve the security situation, is less well known. II. Marginalisation and division But when you ask around, it quickly becomes clear that Garissa is a place where divisions and in Garissa dangers persist – connected to its historic marginalisation, local and national political rivalries III. “This is about all of us” – in Kenya, and the ebb and flow of conflict in neighbouring Somalia. Since the attack, the local perceptions of violence security situation has improved in Garissa county, yet this may offer no more than a short IV. Rebuilding trust and unity window for action to solve the challenges and divisions that matter to local people – before other forces and agendas reassert their grip. V. CVE job done – or a peacebuilding moment to grasp? This article by Saferworld tells Garissa’s story as we heard it from people living there. Because Garissa stepped back from the brink of terror-induced polarisation and division, it is in some Read more Saferworld analysis ways a positive story with global policy implications.