2009 Urban Remote Sensing Joint Event Simulate urban growth based on RS, GIS, and SLEUTH model in Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan area northeastern China Fengming Xi Yuanman Hu Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS Shenyang, China Shenyang, China Graduate University of CAS [email protected] Beijing, China [email protected] Xiaoqing Wu Institute of Coastal Zone Research for Sustainable Hong S He Development, CAS Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS Yantai, China Shenyang, China [email protected] School of Natural Resources at the University of Missouri Columbia MO USA [email protected] Rencang Bu, Yu Chang, Miao Liu Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS Shenyang, China Jing Yu Urban and Rural Planning Administration Center, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China Beijing, China Abstract—Shenyang and Fushun are two most nearest mega growth pattern and most diffused growth appears at south of cities in China. Integration of the two cities as one sub- region. Edge growth and road gravity growth are the main administrative economic region is a state and province policy to growth types in the future. The accelerated urban development promote economy development of Liaoning province. How the scenario shows the most urban growth area. The limitative urban urban patterns of the mega cities will grow is interested to city growth scenario shows the least urban growth area. The planners, decision-makers, land managers, ecologists, protected urban development scenario shows moderate urban geographers, and resource managers because it’s special policy growth area and good protection to other land resources. The and spatiotemporal dynamic complexity. This study explore the urban land of two mega cities will connect firstly to a whole on combined application of remote sensing, geographical the south bank of Hun River about in 2040 in the accelerated information system and SLEUTH urban growth model to urban development and the current trends scenarios, and will not analyze and model urban growth pattern in Shenyang-Fushun connect on the other two scenarios until 2050. The combined metropolitan area northeastern China. The sequential RS images method using remote sensing, geographical information system can give quantitative descriptors of the geometry of urban form and SLEUTH urban growth model is powerful for to be computed and compared over time. The investigation is representation, modeling and prediction of the spatiotemporal based on a 16-year time series data set compiled from interpreted urban growth, and useful for understanding the alternative historical TM satellite imagery. The SLEUTH model was future planning scenarios, but location accuracy and scenarios calibrated using the mutil-temporal data set for the 6391.12km2 design must be further considered for local application. area where has experienced rapid urbanization in recent years. The model allowed a spatial forecast of urban growth, and future growth was projected out to 2050 assuming four different policy 1 INTRODUCTION scenarios: (1) current trends (CT), (2) accelerated urban Urban growth has been a hot topic not only in the development (AUD), (3) protected urban development (PUD), management of sustainable development but in the fields of and (4) limitative urban growth (LUD). The predicted urban remote sensing and geographic information science [1, 2, 3] growth shows similar compact pattern under each scenario The fastest urbanization appears in developing countries except the current trends scenario that shows diffused urban nowadays [4], especially China that has the most population in 978-1-4244-3461-9/09/$25.00 ©2009 IEEE 2009 Urban Remote Sensing Joint Event the world. Chinese urban planners are facing a huge challenge explore the followings: What the future area, location, and to rapid physical and socio-economic restructuring of Chinese orientation of urban growth pattern in Shenyang-Fushun cities on the background of rapid urbanization and multi-scale metropolitan area under different planning scenarios? When administrative policies from different level of government, will the two mega cities connect spatially as a whole? Location which also have been attracting more and more attentions of accuracy and scenarios design are discussed for local not only Chinese scholars but international urban researchers as application. well [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. City has spatiotemporally dynamic complexity [10]. The 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS spatial pattern of a city is a consequence of the interaction of various kinds of driving forces including natural and 2.1 Study area socioeconomic factors [11, 12]. Area, location, and orientation Shenyang-Fushun metropolitan area is located on the of urban growth pattern are very important to urban planners, transition zone from the branch-range of Changbai Mountain to conservationists, economists, ecologists, and land resource the flood plain of Liao River in northeast China (Fig 1), which managers in China who accounting for the urban spatial one of fastest urbanizing, and the most typical old heavy- planning, ecological protection, economic sustainable industry metropolitan areas in northeastern China. Fusun is development, and land resources sustainable use. The multi- located the upper reach of Hunhe River and Shenyang is sources, multi-temporal, and multi-scale sequential RS images located middle reach of Hunhe River. Most area of Shenyang is can give quantitative descriptors of the urban pattern to be plain. Most area of Fushun is mountain and with a large computed and compared over time, which is useful to explore reservoir in upper reach of Hunhe River. Fushun is a famous the law of urban growth [13, 14,15,16,17]. The dynamic spatial city for its coalfield and petrochemistry. Fushun is the fourth simulation models is a good way to understand the dynamics of largest city in Liaoning province. Shenyang is the capital and complex urban system, evaluate the impact of urban growth on the first largest city of Liaoning province and communication, environment, and be a planning tool for planner and decision commerce, science, and culture center of Northeast China. makers [18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27]. The combined Shenyang and Fushun have been two of the fastest growing and method using remote sensing, geographical information system the nearest mega cities in China, driven by policies and urban growth model is powerful for representation, encouraging industrialization at multiple government levels. modeling and prediction of the spatiotemporal urban growth The total population of study area for this research is more than pattern, and useful for understanding the alternative future 6 530 000. There is a state and province policy that will planning scenarios [28, 29, 30]. combine Shenyang and Fushun as one sub-administrative Shenyang and Fushun are two most nearest mega cities in economic region, the first time in China two proximate heavy China. Integration of the two cities as one sub-administrative industrial cities have been combined to share resources, economic region is an important state and province policy to comparative advantages, and ecological protection [31]. promote economy development of Liaoning province. There are mainly four different policy scenarios about integration of 2.2 SLEUTH dynamic urban growth model the two mega cities: (1) current trends scenario (CT), the two SLEUTH is a self-modifying probabilistic cellular automata mega cities keep the current policies and urban growth trend as model originally developed by Keith Clarke at the University history; (2) accelerated urban development scenario (AUD), of California at Santa Barbara [22, 32, 33]. It’s an initial take urban development policies into account and give lower abbreviation for the input data layers: Slope, Land Use, protective probability in all land types of urban planning area Exclusion, Urban, Transportation, and Hill Shade. The version and urban development area, especially the connective zone of used in this application, SLEUTH 3.0Beta, consists of an urban two cities, and give higher protective probability in other area; growth model (UGM) and an optional Land Cover Deltatron (3) protected urban development (PUD), give more protection Model (LCDM). The UGM simulates urban growth, which is a to important land sources such as natural water, forest, and non-urban cell will be converted to an urban cell. The LCDM, arable land, and the areas that are restrictive to urban growth; which is driven by the UGM, simulate land use and land cover and (4) limitative urban growth (LUD), give more stringent change. In this application, only the urban module was utilized, protection to land sources than PUD scenario and limit the so each cell in the study area had only two possible states: urban growth. Specifically, the objectives of this paper are to urbanized or nonurbanized. SLEUTH simulates four types of urban growth (Spontaneous growth, New spreading center growth, Edge growth, and Road-influenced growth) controlled through the interactions of five growth coefficients (ranging from 0 to 100): Dispersion, Breed, Spread, Road gravity, and Slope (Table ). We use UGM only. The four urban development types in UGMdescribe briefly below [22, 29, 32]: Spontaneous growth models the random urbanization of single pixels in undeveloped areas, which has the potential to Figure 2. Study area within the Liaoning province northeastern China capture low-density development patterns and is not dependant