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미래에셋 게임트렌드 Korea / Game Software & Service

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미래에셋 게임트렌드 Korea / Game Software & Service Weekly 미래에셋 게임트렌드 Korea / Game Software & Service 4 월 4 주차 주간동향 27 April 2015 1. 2015 년 글로벌 게임시장 규모 약 100 조 원(+9% YoY) 게임시장 조사업체 뉴주(Newzoo)에 따르면, 2015 년 글로벌 게임시장 규모는 전년 대비 9% 성장한 915 억달러(약 100 조원)로 예상됨. 플랫폼 별로는 PC 온라인게임 37%, 모바일게임 33%, 비디오게임 30%가 될 것으로 추정됨.(뉴주 데이터 재분류) 2014 년 시장조사 결과를 보면 글로벌 상위 25 개 기업이 약 59 조원의 매출을 올리 Stocks under coverage 면서 전체 시장의 65%를 차지했음. 미국, 중국, 일본, 한국 등 주요시장의 성장률 Company Rating Price Target price 둔화와 시장간 국경이 사라지면서, 상위기업들의 시장독식 현상은 더욱 심화될 것임. 선데이토즈 (123420 KS) BUY 13,850 17,000 (주: 4 월 24 일 종가 기준) 2014 년 기준 상위 25 개 게임 기업에 속한 한국 게임사는 넥슨(13 위)과 엔씨소프트 (21 위)임. 2015 년 글로벌 게임시장 스크린별 점유율 Floating 2. 넥슨 vs. 엔씨소프트 2 라운드는 모바일게임 대결 screen 13% 엔씨소프트의 최대주주인 넥슨의 경영참여 선언으로 붉어졌던 양사 간 갈등은 엔씨 Computer screen 소프트와 넷마블게임즈의 지분교환 및 공동사업 추진 선언으로 일단락된 듯 보이지 37% Personal Global market screen 만, 여전히 분쟁의 씨앗은 남아있음. 엔씨소프트의 약점으로 지적됐던 모바일게임 23% US$91.5bn in 2015E 사업 성과가 가시화되면서, 이제는 양사가 명분보다는 실적에 따른 경영능력을 증명 해야 하는 단계로 접어들었음. 엔씨소프트는 자회사 엔트리브소프트를 통해 지난 21 Entertainm 일 모바일게임 ‘소환사가되고싶어 for Kakao’를 출시했으며, 3 월말 출시한 ‘프로야 ent screen 27% 구 6:30 for Kakao’가 국내 구글플레이 매출순위 20 위권에 진입하면서 양호한 성과 자료: Newzoo, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 를 보여주고 있음. 넥슨은 국내에서는 ‘탑오브탱커 for Kakao’, 해외에서는 주: Computer screen: Web/PC/MMO games ‘DomiNations’을 통해 본격적인 모바일 게임시장 공략에 나섰음. 현재 ‘탑오브탱커’ Entertainment screen: TV, Consoles & VR Personal screen: Smartphone & watches 는 국내 구글플레이 매출순위 10 위 내에 진입했고, ‘DomiNations’는 미국과 유럽을 Floating screen: Tablets & Handhelds 중심으로 매출순위가 상승 중에 있음. 텐센트에 따르면, 엔씨소프트의 차기 온라인 넥슨과 엔씨소프트 주가 추이 게임 ‘MxM’과 넥슨의 ‘던전앤파이터즈 모바일(Dungeon & Fighters mobile)’이 텐센 (JPY) (KRW) 트와 퍼블리싱 계약을 맺어 중국 출시를 준비하고 있으며, 최근 엔씨소프트가 국내 NEXON (LHS) NCSoft (RHS) 1,700 260,000 외 소규모 게임개발사 투자에 적극적으로 나서면서 국내뿐만 아니라 글로벌 시장에 1,600 240,000 서 양사 간의 경쟁은 더욱 치열해질 전망임. 1,500 220,000 1,400 1,300 200,000 3. 구조조정과 자금조달 1,200 180,000 최근 국내 게임사들의 구조조정 및 자금조달 관련한 이슈가 상당수 있었음. 위메이 1,100 160,000 1,000 드는 온라인게임 사업권을 와이디온라인에 넘기고, CS(Customer service) 관련 인 140,000 900 력을 네시삼십삼분의 CS 전문 자회사인 큐로드로 보내는 등 구조조정을 시작한 것으 800 120,000 700 100,000 로 알려짐. 위메이드의 이번 구조조정은 모바일게임 사업에 더욱 집중하기 위한 것 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 자료: WISEfn, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 으로 판단됨. 드래곤플라이, 와이디온라인, 소프트맥스는 최근 운영자금(개발비 등) 확보를 위한 자금조달에 나섰음. 드래곤플라이는 150 억원(CB 100 억원/EB 50 억원), 와이디온라인은 30 억원(CB), 소프트맥스는 85 억원(CB)의 자금을 조달해 개발비용 등으로 사용할 예정임. 국내 게임시장의 중심추가 모바일게임으로 이동하면서, 모바 고훈, Analyst 일게임에서 성과가 부진한 기업들의 자금조달 이슈는 지속 발생할 것으로 예상됨. 3774 3733 [email protected] See the last page of this report for important disclosures 고훈, Analyst, 3774 3733, [email protected] 게임소프트웨어와 서비스 Figure 1 Global Top 25 game companies # Rank Chg. Company Country 2014 Revenue (US$ m) YoY growth 1 - Tencent China 7,211 37% 2 ▲1 Sony+ Japan 6,040 27% 3 ▽1 Microsoft+ United States 5,023 3% 4 ▲1 EA United States 4,453 22% 5 ▽1 Activision Blizzard United States 4,409 (4%) 6 ▲2 Apple+ United States 3,199 35% 7 ▲6 Google+ United States 2,623 89% 8 New King Digital Entertainment United Kingdom 2,260 20% 9 ▽2 Nintendo Japan 2,092 (13%) 10 ▲4 Ubisoft France 1,806 33% 11 ▲1 NetEase China 1,586 11% 12 ▽2 GungHo Entertainment Japan 1,447 (7%) 13 ▽2 Nexon Korea 1,446 (2%) 14 ▲2 Disney United States 1,280 9% 15 ▽6 DeNA Japan 998 (38%) 16 ▽10 Take Two Interactive United States 978 (60%) 17 ▲1 Facebook+ United States 974 10% 18 ▲2 Square Enix Japan 949 13% 19 ▽4 GREE Japan 883 (34%) 20 ▽3 Konami Japan 841 (18%) 21 ▲3 NCSoft Korea 769 7% 22 - Changyou China 755 2% 23 - Sega Japan 735 0% 24 ▽5 Zynga United States 692 (21%) 25 ▽4 Bandai Namco Japan 681 (16%) 자료: Newzoo, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: Sony, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook 매출은 Newzoo 가 추정한 게임부문 매출 Figure 2 넥슨과 엔씨소프트 주가추이 (YTD) (JPY) NEXON (LHS) NCSoft (RHS) (KRW) 1,700 260,000 1,600 240,000 1,500 220,000 1,400 1,300 200,000 1,200 180,000 1,100 160,000 1,000 140,000 900 800 120,000 700 100,000 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 자료: WISEfn, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 2 Mirae Asset Securities 2 고훈, Analyst, 3774 3733, [email protected] 게임소프트웨어와 서비스 Figure 3 엔씨소프트 주주구성 Figure 4 엔씨소프트 모바일게임 성과: 한국 구글플레이 순위 (#) ProBaseball 6:30 (Grossing) WBS (Download) WBS (Grossing) Nexon 15% 0 5 NPS 10 8% 15 20 etc. Kim, TJ 25 58% 10% 30 Netmarble 35 Games 40 9% 45 50 Mar-15 Apr-15 자료: 엔씨소프트, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 자료: App Annie, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: WBS-Wannabe a Summoner (소환사가 되고 싶어) Figure 5 2015 년 넥슨과 엔씨소프트의 모바일게임 라인업 Figure 6 넥슨의 DomiNations iOS 매출순위 추이 Nexon NCSoft (#) France Germany US 0 탑오브탱커 프로야구 6:30 (Ntreev) 10 DomiNations 소환사가 되고 싶어 (Ntreev) 20 광개토태왕 Blade & Soul mobile 30 Super Fantasy War Aion Legions 40 Mabinogi Duel Fashion Street 50 TLBB(천룡팔부) Pangya mobile 60 야생의 땅 듀랑고 70 80 카트라이더 모바일 90 영웅의군단: Raid 100 Apr-15 자료: 각 사, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 자료: App Annie, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 Figure 7 최근 상장 게임사들의 자금조달 (2014 년 이후) Code Company Date of disclosure Converting start from Amount Method Purpose 181710 KS NHN엔터테인먼트 7 Jan. 2015 - 2,700억원 유상증자 신사업 추진 047080 KS 한빛소프트 28 Feb. 2014 - 20억원 유상증자 운영자금 14 Apr. 2016 (CB) 100억원 CB 030350 KS 드래곤플라이 9 Apr. 2015 운영자금 14 May 2015 (EB) 50억원 EB 052770 KS 와이디온라인 23 Apr. 2015 27 Apr. 2016 30억원 CB 운영자금 052190 KS 소프트맥스 23 Apr. 2015 25 Apr. 2016 85억원 CB 운영자금 24 Mar. 2015 25 Mar. 2016 40억원 CB 운영자금 037340 KS 네오아레나 27 Mar. 2014 28 Mar. 2015 35억원 CB 운영자금 10 Feb. 2014 13 Feb. 2015 19억원 CB 운영자금 3 Feb. 2015 - 55억원 유상증자 035620 KS 바른손이앤에이 23 Dec. 2014 - 18억원 유상증자 운영자금 2 Apr. 2014 - 100억원 유상증자 023770 KS 플레이위드 30 April. 2014 - 19억원 유상증자 운영자금 자료: 전자공시(Dart), 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 3 Mirae Asset Securities 3 고훈, Analyst, 3774 3733, [email protected] 게임소프트웨어와 서비스 국내외 게임시장 동향 Figure 8 주간 동향 Week Operating profit (KRW bn) Bloomberg Mkt.cap Company return Weekly comment Week ticker (KRW bn) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15E (%) Chg. ▶ 모바일게임 소환사가 되고 싶어 for Kakao 출시 (4/21) 036570 KS NCSoft 4,517.4 11.4 44.5 65.0 81.3 87.4 64.1 (1.3) ▶ 1Q15 Earnings release on 13 May 078340 KS Com2uS 1,837.8 2.7 ▶ 1Q15 Earnings release on 12 May 2.0 17.3 46.0 36.0 44.6 0.2 NHN 181710 KS 1,279.6 (6.6) ▶ 1Q15 Earnings release on 8 May 22.3 (7.3) (6.2) 3.1 (19.3) (2.8) Entertainment 069080 KS Webzen 1,451.3 6.8 ▶ 모바일게임 MU Origin 출시 예정 (4/28) 0.4 (1.2) 10.9 4.1 19.2 0.0 ▶ 모바일게임 Dungeon Link 글로벌 원빌드 출시 (4/22) 063080 KS Gamevil 789.2 0.6 3.8 2.2 3.5 2.0 6.5 (3.0) ▶ 1Q15 Earnings release on 12 May ▶ D4 Games(연결 손자회사)가 개발한 비행기사단 for Kakao 출시 (4/21) ▶ Icarus, 미르의전설2 등 온라인게임 사업권을 와이디온라인에 양도협의 중 112040 KS WeMade 668.6 8.6 (10.5) (5.2) (5.2) (10.6) (2.3) 3.7 ▶ CS운영인력을 네시삼십삼분 CS전문 자회사 큐로드로 이전 추진 중 ▶ 온라인게임 Icarus의 일본 OBT 시작 (4/24) ▶ 1Q15 Earnings release on 8 May 041140 KS Nexon GT 518.2 (4.6) 8.5 4.0 3.8 4.3 ▶ 온라인 FPS게임, 블랙스쿼드, 현지 퍼블리셔 KREON 통한 095660 KS Neowiz Games 475.6 (5.2) 17.0 4.5 2.9 5.1 5.8 (14.5) 동남아시장 진출 추진 중 123420 KS SundayToz 446.7 (2.8) 17.5 17.9 13.5 12.1 11.0 0.0 194480 KS Devsisters 386.6 (4.7) 15.2 5.6 1.0 2.5 0.0 052790 KS ActozSoft 353.9 (3.7) (0.5) (5.4) (2.8) (4.6) 067000 KS Joycity 348.8 (2.2) 0.8 2.1 1.2 1.5 9.7 0.0 067160 KS Afreeca TV 247.1 (13.5) (0.6) (0.5) 0.1 1.9 ▶ 와이지엔터테인먼트 아티스트들을 활용해 리듬게임 047080 KS Hanbit Soft 292.7 8.1 (0.6) (0.5) (0.9) 0.4 오디션의 모바일버전 제작 추진 발표 101730 KS Joymax 223.3 (0.4) ▶ 1Q15 Earnings release on 8 May 1.9 1.2 1.6 0.9 047560 KS EstSoft 246.7 14.1 (0.9) (1.0) (1.5) (1.3) 194510 KS Pati Games 194.7 (1.9) 030350 KS Dragonfly 169.0 (3.2) 0.5 2.1 0.6 (0.5) ▶ 위메이드의 온라인게임 사업권 인수 추진설 052770 KS YD Online 140.1 22.0 (1.1) (1.1) (1.5) (1.4) ▶ 개발비 등 운영자금 조달 위한 CB 30억원 발행 058630 KS Mgame 128.0 17.3 ▶ 2분기에 다수 게임 중국 출시 예정이란 분석에 강세 0.5 (1.2) (0.7) (1.8) 037340 KS NeoArena 94.6 (9.2) 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 052190 KS Softmax 90.1 (8.5) ▶ CB 85억원 규모 발행.
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