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Ncsoft(036570.Ks) NCSOFT (036570.KS) Earnings to enter recovery phase from November With the launch of B&S2 having been pushed back to 1Q21 (vs the previous Company Note │ Oct 19, 2020 expectation of an end-2020 release), NCSOFT’s share price has been adjusting as of late. However, noting both that the specifics of the B&S2 Refer to page 2 for ESG index/event tables launch are to be announced in November and that subsidiaries are slated to roll out new titles by the end of this year, we expect to see an accompanying resurgence in NCSOFT’s earnings momentum. Buy (maintain) TP W1,220,000 (lower) CP (’20/10/16) W767,000 Set to release B&S2; subsidiaries rolling out new offerings as well Sector Game Kospi/Kosdaq 2,341.53 / 833.84 We reiterate a Buy rating on NCSOFT, continuing to suggest it as our sector top Market cap (common) US$14,732.02mn pick. The company’s share price has recently been undergoing adjustment due Outstanding shares (common) 22.0mn 52W high (’20/07/06) W995,000 to both concerns over the delayed release of Blade & Soul 2 (B&S2) and low (’19/12/03) W485,000 slowing sales of Lineage 2M. However, we point out that the pushing back of Average trading value (60D) US$90.03mn the B&S2 launch stems from merely a scheduling issue, not a development Dividend yield (2020E) 0.79% issue. The new title appears safely on track to be released in 1Q21, with specific Foreign ownership 48.8% information regarding the launch to be released next month. Also drawing Major shareholders attention to planned rollouts of new games (including TricksterM and Fuser) at TJ Kim & 9 others 12.0% subsidiaries by yearend, we see NCSOFT as being well-situated to see a sharp NPS 11.0% rebound in earnings momentum in the not-too-distant future. Share perf 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) -12.7 17.1 51.6 Relative (%p) -18.6 -7.1 34.8 NCSOFT’s share price has now slipped around 20% compared to its Jul 2020 peak. Considering its lower valuation versus its competitors’ average, the 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F company’s share price looks well-primed to rebound. But, in reflection of a Sales 1,701 2,426 3,362 3,747 deferring in new game sales from 4Q20E to 2021F due to delayed global Chg -0.8 42.6 38.6 11.5 expansions/rollouts of B&S2 and Lineage 2M, we trim down our earnings OP 479.0 843.0 1,401 1,560 Chg -22.1 76.0 66.2 11.3 estimates, in turn lowering our TP from W1,270,000 to W1,220,000. OPM 28.2 34.7 41.7 41.6 NP 358.2 669.0 1,097 1,231 G-Star to kick off peak seasonality from November EPS 16,320 30,471 49,981 56,089 Chg -14.4 86.7 64.0 12.2 The upcoming G-Star convention in November is to kick off peak seasonality P/E 33.1 25.2 15.3 13.7 for the game industry. As NCSOFT usually holds a press conference around P/B 4.8 5.5 4.2 3.3 November of each year in order to unveil titles and share its business plans, we EV/EBITDA 21.0 17.4 10.2 8.7 assume that a similar event will run this year, anticipating that B&S2 details will ROE 14.7 24.1 31.2 27.2 be in the spotlight. Debt/equity 33.2 26.7 21.4 18.3 Net debt -719.7 -1,104 -1,917 -2,606 Unit: Wbn, %, won, x 3Q20 preview: Earnings to come in slightly weak Note 1: NP excludes minority interests Note 2: EPS, P/E, P/B, ROE based on NP (excl minority interests) We size NCSOFT’s 3Q20 revenue at W574.2bn (+44.3% y-y, 6.6% q-q) and Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates OP at W197.2bn (+53.0% y-y, -5.6% q-q), with OP missing the consensus of W207.8bn due to a drop in sales of Lineage 2M despite a third-anniversary update-spurred rise in a Lineage M sales. 3Q20 preview (Unit: Wbn, %) 3Q20E 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 4Q20F Revised y-y q-q Previous Consen Sales 397.8 533.8 731.1 538.6 574.2 44.3 6.6 579.3 565.3 581.9 OP 128.9 141.2 241.4 209.0 197.2 53.0 -5.6 200.3 207.8 195.4 OPM 32.4 26.4 33.0 38.8 34.3 - - 34.6 36.8 33.6 Pre-tax profit 153.2 97.6 255.6 216.4 207.6 35.5 -4.0 210.9 211.5 207.9 Jaemin Ahn, Analyst NP (excl minority 113.3 54.2 195.5 158.2 157.5 38.9 -0.5 160.0 166.2 157.8 822)768-7647, [email protected] interests) Note: K-IFRS consolidated basis; Source: WISEfn, NH I&S Research Center estimates NCSOFT www.nhqv.com Summary Founded in Mar 1997, NCSOFT was listed in May 2003. As a leading domestic mobile and online game developer, the firm booked 2019 sales of W1,705.7bn (-0.8% y-y), with game sales representing about 94% (mobile: 81.1%, PC: 18.9%) of its total revenue. Thanks to the Nov 2019 launch of Lineage 2M (sequel to 2017’s Lineage M) and the planned release of B&S2 in 2021, the firm’s top line should enjoy strong growth. We present a Buy rating and a TP of W1,220,000. Share price drivers/earnings momentum Downside risks Launches of new game lineups in 2021 High dependency on domestic market due to lack of global hit games Globally competitive game development capabilities sufficient to roll out cloud-based games Cross valuations (Unit: x, %) Historical valuations (Unit: x, %) P/E P/B ROE Company Valuations 2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2020E 2021F 2020E 2021F 2020E 2021F Activision Blizzard 29.1 27.7 4.2 3.7 16.3 15.3 P/E 24.5 33.1 25.2 15.3 13.7 Electronic Arts 9.6 36.3 3.9 4.7 48.0 18.5 P/B 4.3 4.8 5.5 4.2 3.3 Tencent 38.9 32.8 8.2 6.5 22.8 22.4 P/S 6.0 7.0 6.9 5.0 4.5 Nexon 19.4 16.3 3.1 2.6 16.8 17.2 ROE 16.4 14.7 24.1 31.2 27.2 Netease 28.0 22.9 4.5 4.0 19.0 19.0 ROIC 47.7 27.0 53.1 78.8 77.0 Source: Bloomberg, NH I&S Research Center Source: Bloomberg, NH I&S Research Center ESG index (Unit: %, yrs, hours, ‘000TJ, mntCO2e, mn tons) BOD composition Human resources 2017 2018 2019 Kim Taek-jin President, CEO, BOD chair Inside Portion of female employees 30.7 31.6 31.9 Park Byeong-mu Compensation Committee chair Inside Portion of contract workers 5.0 4.3 3.1 Audit Committee chair, Outside Director Candidate Hwang Chan-hyeon Outside Average service period per employee 4.8 5.2 5.4 Recommendation Committee chair Average training hours per employee N/A N/A N/A Hyeon Dong-hun - Outside Cho Guk-hyeon - Outside Environment 2017 2018 2019 Baek Sang-hun - Outside Energy consumption N/A N/A N/A Greenhouse gas emissions N/A N/A N/A Recycled water consumption N/A N/A N/A Recycled waste N/A N/A N/A Source: NCSOFT, NH I&S Research Center ESG events E - - N/A - Outsourced tasks related to graphics development and character goods production to 30 outside contractors without properly 2017.2 S signing contract sheets 2015.3 - Reaped unjust gains in process of selecting vendor companies - Nexon expanded its stake in NCSOFT to 15.08%, a development that highlighted the possibility of a hostile takeover; to protect G 2014.10 its management rights, NCSOFT decided to conduct a stake exchange with Netmarble (which has since come to own an 8.9% stake in NCSOFT) Source: NCSOFT, NH I&S Research Center 2 NCSOFT www.nhqv.com Share price declines With the launch of B&S2 having been pushed back to 1Q21 (vs the previous expectation on delay in new of an end-2020 release), NCSOFT’s share price has fallen 20% versus the July peak. game title However, given that the delay: 1) is attributable to schedule adjustments due to Covid- 19, rather than technical issues; and 2) will likely last only a couple of months (less than a year), we view additional downside as limited. Resurgence in Noting both that the specifics of the B&S2 launch are to be announced in November and NCSOFT’s earnings that subsidiaries are slated to roll out new titles (such as Fuser and Trickster M) by end- momentum 2020, we expect to see an accompanying resurgence in NCSOFT’s earnings momentum. anticipated in November on likely pre-orders for B&S2 and new title The upcoming G-Star convention in November is to kick off peak seasonality for the launches at game industry. Of note, NCSOFT has usually held a press conference around November subsidiaries of each year in order to unveil titles and share its business plans, regardless of its participation in the G-Star convention.
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