Ncsoft Reported 1Q18 Operating Profit That Topped the Consensus and an OP Margin May 11, 2018 of Over 40%

NC soft

(036570 KS ) New title releases pushed back , but existing IP remains popular Game 1Q18 review: OP tops consensus on strong royalties Results Comment NCsoft reported 1Q18 operating profit that topped the consensus and an OP margin May 11, 2018 of over 40%. Positives: Margin expansion was driven by strong royalties, which grew 33% YoY and 41% QoQ to a record W84.2bn thanks to Lineage M revenue in Taiwan (launched on December 11, 2017). Six months into its release, Lineage M remains the top-grossing (Maintain) Buy game on both Android and iOS in Taiwan, where Lineage intellectual property (IP) enjoys huge popularity. Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 500,000 Among PC titles, Aion was a standout performer, boosted by in creased usage following the conversion of the title’s business model from subscription-based to Share Price (05/10/18, W) 347,000 microtransaction-based on January 17 th . Despite the launch of a major rival title, marketing spend actually fell QoQ and YoY. Expected Return 44% Negatives: Revenue from Lineage M (the company’s flagship mobile title) declined QoQ. We estimate daily average revenue slipped from W3.6bn in 4Q17 to W2.9bn in OP (18F, Wbn) 696 1Q18. In addition, revenue fell more than expected for PC titles Lineage , Lineage II , Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 786 and Guild Wars 2 .

EPS Growth (18F, %) 14.5 Major new releases pushed back to 2019; Performance of current games will Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 16.2 be key near-term variable P/E (18F, x) 15.1 New release schedule pushed back: NCsoft said it had pushed back the release of its Market P/E (18F, x) 9.4 highly anticipated new title Blade & Soul II (B&S II ) from 2018 to 2019. B&S II is a KOSPI 2,464.16 mobile MMORPG with a follow-up storyline to the original PC title Blade & Soul . We Market Cap (Wbn) 7,613 believe the company recently overhauled its team to further enhance the game’s Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 quality amid increasing competition in the domestic market. The launch of Lineage II Free Float (%) 84.8 M, which was originally scheduled for this year, has also been moved to next year. We Foreign Ownership (%) 48.1 expect Lineage II M to come out in 1H19, followed by B&S II in 2H19. Beta (12M) 0.69 Lineage M plans: Next month will mark the one-year anniversary of the release of 52-Week Low 342,000 Lineage M , which has become NCsoft’s new cash cow. The company will unveil massive 52-Week High 488,000 content updates and other plans for the mobile title at an upcoming press event on th (%) 1M 6M 12M May 15 . We believe such moves could help invigorate Lineage M ’s ecosystem. Absolute -12.8 -17.4 -4.3 2H18 plans: Aion Legions , a mobile strategy RPG, is set to be launched in North Relative -13.3 -14.7 -11.8 America and Europe this year. For Project TL (The Lineage ), which is currently under development for PCs/consoles, the company plans to conduct closed beta testing (CBT) 140 NCSOFT KOSPI 130 in 2H18 and unveil its development status. 120 Maintain Buy, but lower TP to W500,000 in light of new release schedule 110 100 We revised down our 2018-19 earnings estimates due to the delays to new title 90 releases. As such, we lower our target price to W500,000 (from W600,000). 80 4.17 8.17 12.17 4.18 We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. We anticipate Lineage M and royalties to support earnings stability. Valuation also looks inexpensive. In 2H18, we expect to gain Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. further clarity on the new title release schedule.

[ Internet/Game/Advertising ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 838 984 1,759 1,820 2,728 2,864 Jee -hyun Moon +822 -3774 -1640 OP (Wbn) 237 329 585 696 1,184 1,245 [email protected] OP margin (%) 28.3 33.4 33.3 38.2 43.4 43.5

NP (Wbn) 165 272 441 505 860 905 EPS (W) 7,542 12,416 20,100 23,005 39,180 41,231 ROE (%) 10.6 14.9 19.1 17.2 24.6 21.9

P/E (x) 28.2 19.9 22.3 15.1 8.9 8.4 P/B (x) 2.6 2.7 3.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.4 4.0 4.3 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

May 11, 2018 NCsoft

Earnings and forecasts

Table 1. 1Q18 review (Wbn, %) 1Q18P Growth

1Q17 4Q17 Mirae Asset Preliminary Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 240 533 475 511 474 98.3 -10.9 Operating profit 30 189 204 192 177 569.1 7.6 OP margin 12.7 35.5 42.9 37.6 37.3 Net profit 17 121 119 142 135 584.9 -1.3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling and non-controlling interests Source: Company data, FnGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18P 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 240 259 727 533 475 447 446 452 1,759 1,820 2,728 Lineage 51 34 35 34 28 28 26 26 154 108 107 Lineage II 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 13 66 56 55 Aion 13 11 10 13 19 18 17 17 47 70 67 Blade & Soul 45 39 38 40 34 32 31 32 161 129 116 Guild Wars 2 14 14 20 35 24 18 16 17 83 75 67 Mobile games 23 94 551 327 264 261 259 254 995 1,038 1,879 Other 11 15 13 11 8 8 8 8 50 32 63 Royalties 64 36 44 60 84 67 75 85 203 312 374 Operating profit 30 38 328 189 204 172 172 148 585 696 1,184 OP margin 12.7 14.5 45.1 35.5 42.9 38.5 38.4 32.9 33.3 38.2 43.4 Net profit 17 31 275 121 119 126 125 136 444 506 861 Net margin 7.3 11.9 37.8 22.6 25.1 28.1 28.1 30.2 25.2 27.8 31.6 YoY Revenue -0.6 7.5 234.3 87.4 98.3 72.7 -38.6 -15.3 78.8 3.5 49.9 Lineage -34.8 -64.2 -57.8 -71.5 -45.1 -18.1 -25.6 -23.5 -58.9 -30.0 -1.0 Lineage II 7.7 -12.6 -24.1 -26.0 -22.8 -14.8 -9.2 -11.8 -14.7 -15.0 -2.0 Aion -33.9 -38.5 -36.8 -29.6 41.1 64.6 66.7 33.4 -34.6 50.0 -5.0 Blade & Soul -17.5 -20.2 -5.2 0.5 -23.9 -17.4 -19.5 -18.5 -11.6 -20.0 -10.0 Guild Wars 2 -53.4 -14.7 31.5 134.8 66.2 33.8 -19.3 -52.7 8.1 -10.0 -10.0 Mobile 51,113.1 110,771.6 1,613.2 1,028.2 178.9 -53.0 -22.4 4,935.0 4.3 81.0 Other -1.5 -14.9 -22.2 -17.4 -24.8 -46.3 -39.7 -23.6 -15.1 -35.0 94.4 Royalties 116.1 33.8 80.2 43.2 32.5 86.3 72.9 42.7 66.0 53.8 20.0 Operating profit -59.8 -56.4 403.4 86.0 569.1 358.4 -47.6 -21.5 77.8 19.0 70.1 Net profit -73.7 -65.9 474.3 80.7 584.9 307.7 -54.5 12.9 63.6 14.0 70.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; revenue from Lineage M , which was released on June 21, 2017, is included in mobile game revenue; Lineage M’s daily average revenue is estimated at W2.7bn in 2018; new releases, including B&S II, Lineage II M and Project TL are reflected in 2019; Lineage II: Revolution (Netmarble) and Lineage M (Taiwan) are included in royalties revenue; net profit is attributable to controlling and non-controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 3. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %)

Previous Revised % chg. Notes 18F 19F 18F 19F 18F 19F - Revised mobile game revenue estimates , Revenue 2,290 3,055 1,820 2,728 -20.5 -10.7 factoring in timing of new game release s Operating profit 905 1238 696 1,184 -23.1 -4.4 - Revised down marketing spend Net profit 666 908 506 861 -24.0 -5.1 EPS (W) 30,142 41,158 23,005 39,180 -23.7 -4.8 OP margin 39.5 40.5 38.2 43.4

Net margin 29.1 29.7 27.8 31.6

Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; EPS is based on net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 May 11, 2018 NCsoft

Figure 1. Lineage M (Taiwan) is the top-grossing game on Figure 2. Lineage M (Taiwan) publisher Gamania’s monthly

Google Play revenue

(NT$mn) 2,000 2018 2017

1,500

1,000

500

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Notes: Based on May 10 th chart Note: Lineage M (Taiwan) was released on December 11, 2017 Source: AppAnnie, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Gamania, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 3. NCsoft’s mobile gaming revenue to double in 2019 Figure 4. Royalties to remain strong, bolstering profitability

(Wbn) Lineage II M (Wbn) B&S (%) 2,000 PC online game revenue B&S II 400 Royalties revenue (L) Revolution 50 Mobile game revenue OP margin (R) Lineage M in Taiwan 1,500 300 40 Aion Legions Lineage M

1,000 200 Lineage II: 30 Revolution

500 100 20

0 0 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F 19F 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F 19F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 5. Aion Legions is set for launch in North America and Figure 6. CBT for Project TL (PC/console) is slated for 2H18 Europe in 2H18

Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 May 11, 2018 NCsoft

NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy/TP: W500,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue 1,759 1,820 2,728 2,864 Current Assets 1,773 2,862 3,299 3,909 Cost of Sales 212 182 273 286 Cash and Cash Equivalents 187 509 415 494 Gross Profit 1,547 1,638 2,455 2,578 AR & Other Receivables 198 172 259 271 SG&A Expenses 962 942 1,271 1,333 Inventories 1 0 1 1 Operating Profit (Adj) 585 696 1,184 1,245 Other Current Assets 1,387 2,181 2,624 3,143 Operating Profit 585 696 1,184 1,245 Non-Current Assets 1,754 1,099 1,427 1,475 Non-Operating Profit 25 0 0 1 Investments in Associates 34 34 34 34 Net Financial Income 16 16 16 16 Property, Plant and Equipment 229 228 232 231 Net Gain from Inv in Associates -2 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 52 50 50 50 Pretax Profit 610 696 1,184 1,246 Total Assets 3,527 3,960 4,726 5,384 Income Tax 166 190 323 340 Current Liabilities 456 445 482 506 Profit from Continuing Operations 444 506 861 906 AP & Other Payables 43 32 48 51 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 444 506 861 906 Other Current Liabilities 413 413 434 455 Controlling Interests 441 505 860 905 Non-Current Liabilities 342 361 403 428 Non-Controlling Interests 3 2 1 2 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 150 0 0 0 Total Comprehensive Profit 919 506 861 906 Other Non-Current Liabilities 192 361 403 428 Controlling Interests 916 502 853 898 Total Liabilities 797 806 885 934 Non-Controlling Interests 3 4 8 8 Controlling Interests 2,721 3,144 3,830 4,437 EBITDA 615 725 1,213 1,274 Capital Stock 11 11 11 11 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 566 544 837 942 Capital Surplus 433 433 433 433 EBITDA Margin (%) 35.0 39.8 44.5 44.5 Retained Earnings 1,906 2,329 3,015 3,622 Operating Profit Margin (%) 33.3 38.2 43.4 43.5 Non-Controlling Interests 8 10 11 13 Net Profit Margin (%) 25.1 27.7 31.5 31.6 Stockholders' Equity 2,729 3,154 3,841 4,450

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Cash Flows from Op Activities 595 569 867 967 P/E (x) 22.3 15.1 8.9 8.4 Net Profit 444 506 861 906 P/CF (x) 15.6 10.8 6.4 6.0 Non-Cash Income and Expense 185 202 336 352 P/B (x) 3.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 Depreciation 27 26 26 26 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.7 7.1 3.9 3.3 Amortization 3 2 2 2 EPS (W) 20,100 23,005 39,180 41,231 Others 155 174 308 324 CFPS (W) 28,685 32,273 54,540 57,366 Chg in Working Capital 11 34 -23 32 BPS (W) 131,144 150,451 181,688 209,358 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -42 23 -85 -13 DPS (W) 7,280 8,200 14,000 15,000 Chg in Inventories 0 0 0 0 Payout ratio (%) 34.8 34.4 34.6 35.2 Chg in AP & Other Payables -4 1 2 0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 2.4 4.0 4.3 Income Tax Paid -63 -190 -323 -340 Revenue Growth (%) 78.8 3.5 49.9 5.0 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -460 -166 -787 -593 EBITDA Growth (%) 70.4 17.9 67.3 5.0 Chg in PP&E -28 -25 -30 -25 Operating Profit Growth (%) 77.8 19.0 70.1 5.2 Chg in Intangible Assets -4 0 -2 -3 EPS Growth (%) 61.9 14.5 70.3 5.2 Chg in Financial Assets -1,263 -141 -755 -565 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 10.0 10.0 12.9 11.0 Others 835 0 0 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 2,983.9 3,677.1 4,580.0 3,910.6 Cash Flows from Fin Activities -80 -81 -174 -298 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 48.4 65.7 63.3 54.0 Chg in Financial Liabilities - - - - ROA (%) 15.1 13.5 19.8 17.9 Chg in Equity 1 0 0 0 ROE (%) 19.1 17.2 24.6 21.9 Dividends Paid -81 -81 -174 -298 ROIC (%) 130.5 280.8 419.5 385.9 Others - - - - Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 29.2 25.6 23.0 21.0 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 42 322 -94 79 Current Ratio (%) 388.9 642.5 684.2 772.1 Beginning Balance 145 187 509 415 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -51.1 -79.5 -74.1 -77.3 Ending Balance 187 509 415 494 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 179.6 204.8 348.4 366.3 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 May 11, 2018 NCsoft

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) NCSOFT NCSOFT(036570) 05/10/2018 Buy 500,000 800,000 04/16/2018 Buy 600,000 09/26/2017 Buy 640,000 600,000 07/09/2017 Buy 600,000 05/01/2017 Buy 500,000 400,000 01/02/2017 No Coverage 200,000 03/11/2016 Buy 420,000

0 May 16 May 17 May 18

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 75.00% 11.11% 13.89% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 70.73% 19.51% 9.76% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2018)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of NCSOFT as an underlying asset, and other than this, Mirae Asset Daewoo has no other special interests in the covered companies.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 May 11, 2018 NCsoft

situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 May 11, 2018 NCsoft

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