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Ncsoft (036570 KS/Buy) August 20, 2010 Korea – Equity Research Chang Kwean Kim +822-768-4321 [email protected] Jee-Hyun Moon +822-768-3615 [email protected] NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy) 2011F Earnings to benefit from Guild Wars 2 Demonstration of Guild Wars 2 and Aion 2.0 at GamesCom, which opened in Germany on August 18 Expect commercial launch of Guild Wars 2 during summer 2011 Guild Wars 2 should outperform Guild Wars 1 with cumulative CD sales topping 6.5mn copies globally Maintain Buy on NCsoft with target price of W280,000 Demonstration of Guild Wars 2 to boost shares NCsoft demonstrated Guild Wars 2 at GamesCom, a European trade fair for interactive games, which opened in Germany on August 18. We believe that the demonstration of Guild Wars 2 has eased concerns about delays, one of the biggest risks associated with investment in game companies. We forecast the company to commercially launch the MMORPG game in summer 2011, given that: 1) the game was confirmed to be highly sophisticated at GamesCom; and 2) Blizzard’s real-time strategy game Starcraft II, which had been delayed, was commercialized in July 2010, one year after its demonstration at the largest American game conference PAX in September 2009. We expect Guild Wars 2 to outperform Guild Wars 1 with cumulative CD sales topping 6.5mn copies globally, as: 1) The company added new features (e.g. level-up – preferred by Asian players), while maintaining the strengths of the original game, including PvP (multiplayer interactive feature that enables gamers to play against other live participants), which proved to be popular with North American and European players. 2) In addition to CD sales, the company will introduce a micro-transaction model (e.g. item sales). 3) A 3D version release is expected to generate B2B-related sales by establishing a new business relationship with hardware manufacturers. In addition to Guild Wars 2, NCsoft plans to demonstrate and beta test Blade and Soul at G-Star in Korea in 2H10. We expect the game to be commercially launched in 2011. NCsoft is expected to contract out Blade & Soul to Chinese game publishers, and it is likely to change the revenue model/publisher for Lineage 1 & 2 in China. Furthermore, item sales will likely be introduced for Lineage 2 and Aion. We maintain our Buy call on NCsoft with a target price of W280,000. Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY Sales OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 12/08 240 46 19.0 27 1,334 57 10 6.4 39.4 2.6 15.6 12/09 453 200 44.1 183 8,560 213 234 34.8 17.5 5.1 13.3 12/10F 548 289 52.7 218 10,013 301 195 29.8 21.2 5.6 13.4 12/11F 748 438 58.5 403 18,496 449 338 39.2 11.5 3.8 8.1 12/12F 1,112 672 60.4 538 24,669 683 573 36.1 8.6 2.6 4.5 Source: NCsoft, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Please read carefully important notices at the end of this report. ㅋ August 20, 2010 NCsoft Figure 1. NCsoftÊs share price after the introduction of Figure 2. NCsoftÊs share price after the introduction of Guild Wars 2 at GamesCom 2009 Blade and Soul at G-Star 2009 (W) (W) 180,000 170,000 G-Star Premier (Nov 24): NCsoft unofficially unveiled Blade and Soul 160,000 155,000 140,000 140,000 G-Star in Busan (Nov 26-29): NCsoft unveiled Blade & Soul GamesCom 2009 (Aug 17-23): 120,000 125,000 Guild Wars 2 was unveiled; Aion named best game 100,000 110,000 8/03/09 8/17/09 8/31/09 9/14/09 9/28/09 11/02/09 11/16/09 11/30/09 12/14/09 12/28/09 Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 3. Activision BlizzardÊs share price after the introduction of Figure 4. Activision BlizzardÊs share price after the demonstration of Starcraft II at E3 2009 Starcraft II and Diablo III at PAX 2009 (US$) (US$) 13.5 13.0 Demonstration of Starcraft II and Diablo III 13.0 12.5 at PAX 2009 12.5 12.0 Unveiling of Starcraft II 12.0 at E3 2009 11.5 11.5 11.0 6/01/09 6/08/09 6/15/09 6/22/09 6/29/09 9/01/09 9/08/09 9/15/09 9/22/09 9/29/09 Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 5. Guild Wars 1 Ês cumulative sales volume trend (mn copies) 7 Cumulative sales volume of Guild Wars 1 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2Q05 1Q06 4Q06 3Q07 2Q08 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 2 August 20, 2010 NCsoft Figure 6. Guild Wars 2 holds the highest rating among MMORPGs Source: MMORPG.COM Figure 7. Guild Wars 2 is the second most anticipated MMORPG Source: MMOSITE.COM Figure 8. Guild Wars 2 ranks 17th among PC games on GAMESTATS.COM Source: GAMESTATS.COM Daewoo Securities Research 3 August 20, 2010 NCsoft Important Notices Equity Research for International Investors (ERII) As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of NCsoft as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies. As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. issued equity-linked warrants with NCsoft as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies. This report is a translation excerpt of the Korean version publicly released on August 20, 2010. Analyst of the subject company or member of the analyst's household does not have any financial interest in the securities of the subject company and the nature of the financial interest (including without limitation, whether it consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). This report reflects the sole opinion of the analyst without any external influences by third parties. Ratings Distribution (W) NCsoft Buy Relative Performance of +20% or greater 350,000 Trading Buy Relative Performance of +10% or greater, but with volatility 300,000 Hold Relative Performance of -10% and +10% 250,000 200,000 Sell Relative Performance of -10% 150,000 Analyst Industry Ratings of Daewoo Securities 100,000 Overweight fundamentals are favorable or improving 50,000 Neutral fundamentals are steady without any material changes 0 8/08 2/09 8/09 2/10 8/10 Underweight fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening * Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered (▦), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. This report has been provided by the research division of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. The stock ratings, target prices, estimates and overall viewpoints are from the research division of Daewoo Securities. Investors can access Daewoo SecuritiesÊ research through Daewoo research direct (www.bestez.com), FirstCall Research, Reuters, FnGuide, WiseFn, FactSet and Bloomberg (DWIR). This document was prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰). Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. The information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Daewoo and/or other affiliate companies, their directors, representatives, or employees may have long or short positions in any of the securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this document or of issuers described herein and may purchase and/or sale, or offer to purchase and/or sale, at any time, such securities or other financial instruments in the open market or otherwise, as either a principal or agent. This document is for distribution within the United Kingdom to persons authorized under the Financial Services Act 1986. Daewoo Securities is the sole provider of information contained in this document. DaewooÊs U.S. affiliate, Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, is the sole distributor of this document within the U.S. This document may be distributed in the U.S. only to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect any transactions in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Daewoo Securities International Network Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. (Seoul) Daewoo Securities Co.
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