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Ncsoft (036570 KS) Positive Momentum Abound in 1Q NCsoft (036570 KS) Positive momentum abound in 1Q Game Strong performances by Blade & Soul China and Guild Wars 2 in the US/Europe NCsoft’s 4Q revenue and operating profit climbed 23.7% and 84.7% QoQ to W210bn Results Comment and W56.7bn, respectively. Operating expenses jumped more than W14bn QoQ on February 14, 2014 contract payments for the company’s pro baseball team and year-end emplo yee bonuses. Regardless, overall earnings improved, boosted by royalty income from Blade & Soul China (estimated at W22bn) and stronger-than-expected revenue from Guild Wars (Maintain) Buy 2 in the US and Europe (W33.5bn in 4Q vs. W24.4bn in 3Q). The first royalty income from Blade & Soul China beat both ou r expectations and the Target Price (12M, W) 310,000 market’s, raising the outlook for 2014 earnings. We believe the sharp growth of Guild Wars 2 in the US and Europe is a testament to the company’s superior profit model and Share Price (02/13/14, W) 215,000 the extensive lifecycles of its games (as previously demonstrated by the success of Lineage in Korea). Expected Return 44% Positive momentum abound in 1Q14 We see a number of positive events and news on the horizon in 1Q14. Blade & Soul OP (13F, Wbn) 205 China will be officially released in 1Q14 following ongoing open beta testing (began Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 202 November 28, 2013), and will feature additional levels of play and plenty of end-game EPS Growth (13F, %) 1.6 content. We expect to see another huge boost in user indicators after the game’s Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 3.3 official commercialization. P/E (13F, x) 34.3 Also, after much preparation, NCsoft is expected to roll out a number of mobile games Market P/E (13F, x) 12.4 in 1Q14, mostly mid-core and hard-core games based on existing titles like Lineage and KOSPI 1,926.96 Aion . Market Cap (Wbn) 4,712 The company is also set to launch marketing campaigns ahead of the scheduled Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 commercial release of Guild Wars 2 in China (2Q14) and WildStar in the US and Europe Free Float (%) 76.3 (3Q14). Earnings expectations for 2H should rise as mobile games hit the market and Foreign Ownership (%) 39.1 pre-marketing begins. Beta (12M) 0.24 52-Week Low 133,500 Maintain Buy and TP of W310,000 52-Week High 248,500 For 2014, management has guided revenue at W890-940bn and OP margin at the low- (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M to mid- 30% level. Forecasting the revenue of video game companies is somewhat challenging because of the unpredictable nature of a game’s success. Inde ed, games Absolute -1.4 17.2 60.4 companies tend to either deliver a string of positive surprises, as NCsoft did after the Relative -0.3 16.3 64.5 release of Aion in 2009, or a series of negative surprises, as was the case for WeMade, 200 NCsoft KOSPI Gamevil and Com2uS in 2013. 180 160 In 2014, NCsoft’s long-running games (Lineage I , Guild Wars 2 , etc.) should provide 140 stable support for the company’s earnings, and new revenue streams from Blade & Soul 120 and Guild Wars 2 in China and WildStar in the US and Europe will be a source of upside 100 potential (although the extent of upside remains uncertain). We expect the company’s 80 costs burden (labor costs, etc.) to be more moderate compared to previous years . 2.13 6.13 10.13 2.14 Overall, we are more optimistic on the company’s earnings and new title releases. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 650 609 754 757 999 1,243 [Internet/Game/Entertainment] OP (Wbn) 243 136 151 205 389 510 Chang-kwean Kim OP Margin (%) 37.4 22.3 20.0 27.1 38.9 41.0 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 167 121 156 159 368 446 [email protected] EPS (W) 7,656 5,529 7,120 7,236 16,773 20,341 ROE (%) 23.3 14.6 16.8 14.8 27.7 25.9 P/E (x) 27.2 55.6 21.1 34.3 12.8 10.6 P/B (x) 5.0 7.0 3.0 4.4 2.9 2.3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. February 14, 2014 NCsoft TableTableTable 111.1. Quarterly earnings and forecasts (Wbn, %) 1Q131Q131Q13 2Q132Q132Q13 3Q133Q133Q13 4Q13P 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F 201220122012 2013P2013P2013P 2014F2014F2014F Revenue 185 192 170 210 206 226 295 270 754 757 999 Lineage I 66 85 62 75 69 69 66 73 205 288 277 Lineage II 14 14 13 16 14 14 14 13 65 57 54 Aion 28 23 23 22 20 20 20 17 141 96 79 Blade & Soul 17 14 20 18 17 17 17 12 62 69 63 Guild Wars 2 36 29 24 34 29 29 29 34 165 123 121 WildStar 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 10 0 0 62 Other 13 14 17 14 15 20 20 19 51 58 74 Royalties 11 13 10 32 42 57 77 93 64 66 270 Revenue breakdown Lineage I 35.7 44.2 36.7 35.6 33.4 30.5 22.3 26.9 27.2 38.0 27.7 Lineage II 7.7 7.4 7.7 7.4 6.7 6.1 4.7 4.7 8.6 7.6 5.4 Aion 15.3 12.1 13.3 10.3 9.9 9.1 6.9 6.3 18.8 12.7 7.9 Blade & Soul 8.9 7.4 12.0 8.5 8.2 7.5 5.7 4.4 8.2 9.1 6.3 Guild Wars 2 19.7 15.1 14.4 16.0 14.1 12.8 9.8 12.6 21.9 16.3 12.1 WildStar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6 3.6 6.2 Other 6.9 7.1 10.1 6.8 7.3 8.8 6.8 7.1 6.7 7.6 7.4 Royalties 5.8 6.8 5.8 15.4 20.5 25.3 26.1 34.5 8.5 8.7 27.0 Operating profit 56 62 31 57 69 84 130 106 151 205 389 OP margin 30.0 32.4 18.1 27.0 33.6 36.9 44.0 39.1 20.1 27.1 Net profit 52 34 26 46 57 73 129 109 154 159 368 NP margin 28.3 17.8 15.5 21.8 27.7 32.1 43.7 40.2 20.4 21.0 YoY growth Revenue 31.0 30.8 -6.8 -25.9 11.6 17.9 74.0 28.8 23.8 0.4 32.0 Lineage I 51.3 45.1 62.7 15.2 4.4 -18.7 5.8 -2.7 4.9 40.3 -3.9 Lineage II -22.8 -15.5 -1.8 -5.4 -2.9 -3.5 5.7 -18.2 -35.3 -12.2 -5.2 Aion -46.6 -36.0 -16.1 -13.7 -27.5 -11.9 -9.3 -21.1 -36.7 -32.2 -18.0 Blade & Soul -37.8 -33.5 2.4 19.4 -16.8 -33.9 10.8 -9.2 Guild Wars 2 -46.6 -71.8 -20.2 0.4 18.5 1.4 -25.2 -1.8 Royalties 69.6 -5.8 -3.6 127.0 293.1 339.2 683.7 188.6 400.2 2.9 309.3 Operating profit 348.4 -660.3 -16.5 -49.9 24.8 34.2 323.3 86.5 12.3 35.7 89.4 Net profit 321.7 -537.4 -44.2 -55.2 9.4 112.7 390.4 137.7 28.3 3.2 131.8 QoQ growth Revenue -34.8 3.9 -11.6 23.7 -1.7 9.7 30.5 -8.4 Lineage I 1.8 28.4 -26.5 20.0 -7.8 0.0 -4.4 10.3 Lineage II -13.6 0.6 -8.7 19.2 -11.3 0.0 0.0 -7.8 Aion 12.9 -17.8 -2.8 -4.4 -5.2 0.0 0.0 -16.8 Blade & Soul -38.7 -14.3 43.5 -11.9 -5.5 0.0 0.0 -30.0 Guild Wars 2 -69.4 -20.6 -15.3 37.1 -13.5 0.0 0.0 17.2 Royalties -24.6 21.3 -24.4 228.0 30.6 35.5 35.0 20.8 Operating profit -51.0 12.1 -50.6 84.7 22.1 20.6 55.7 -18.6 Net profit -48.7 -34.6 -23.1 73.8 25.2 27.1 77.3 -15.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS. Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 222.2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised % chg. 2014F2014F2014F 2015F2015F2015F 2014F2014F2014F 2015F2015F2015F 2014F2014F2014F 2015F2015F2015F Revenue 998 1,090 999 1,243 0.1 14.0 Operating profit 389 435 389 510 0.0 17.2 Net profit 373 411 368 446 -1.3 8.5 EPS (W) 17,023 18,752 16,773 20,341 -1.5 8.5 OP margin 39.0 39.9 38.9 41.0 0.0 1.1 Net margin 37.4 37.7 36.8 35.9 -0.5 -1.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS.
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