DOCSLIB.ORG

NCSOFT (036570 KS) Blade & Soul US to Become a Meaningful Earnings Variable in 2016

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
NCSOFT (036570 KS) Blade & Soul US to Become a Meaningful Earnings Variable in 2016 NCSOFT (036570 KS) Blade & Soul US to become a meaningful earnings variable in 2016 Game Blade & Soul US launched on January 19 th On January 19 th , NCSOFT’s Blade & Soul US began service in the US and Europe as a Company Update free-to-play game with microtransactions. The game was initially launched with 22 February 5, 2016 servers, but now has 28 servers due to long queue times and is likely to add more servers given extended queues even after the expansion. NCSOFT said the title attracted more than 1mn players in just one week since its launch, and we believe that number has (Maintain) Buy recently increased to almost 2mn. Blade & Soul US has been moving up in Alexa’s global traffic ranking. According to Target Price (12M, W) 400,000 compete.com’s data, Blade & Soul US ranks between the international blockbuster League of Legends (LoL) and NCSOFT’s hit title Guild Wars 2 (2014 revenue of W86bn) Share Price (02/04/16, W) 239,500 in terms of traffic. During its first week of release, Blade & Soul US achieved “daily reach” equal to 76% of LoL’s and 473% of Guild Wars 2’s. Since the title is free to play Expected Return 67% and is in its very early stages, we could see wide swings in future trends, but it seems clear the title will become a meaningful earnings contributor in 2016. OP (15F, Wbn) 237 Netmarble IPO would boost investment asset value Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 237 The biggest component of NCSOFT’s valuation is Lineage I , which was released almost EPS Growth (15F, %) -18.5 two decades ago. Over the years, revenue from Lineage I has grown from W102bn in Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 20.0 2008 to W263.1bn in 2014 an d W313.5bn in 2015. We expect revenue to grow further P/E (15F, x) 24.9 to W324.3bn in 2016. On top of this, the company should see additional revenue from Market P/E (15F, x) 11.1 Lineage Eternal and mobile titles based on Lineage I in 2016 and 2017. In the more KOSPI 1,916.26 immediate term, revenue recognition for Blade & Soul US should begin in 1Q16. Market Cap (Wbn) 5,252 In addition to W1.4tr worth of cash and properties, NCSOFT also holds a 9.8% stake in Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 Netmarble. According to media reports, Netmarble is planning to go public, which would Free Float (%) 84.6 boost the value of NCSOFT’s stake. At the time of the acquisition, NCSOFT valued the Foreign Ownership (%) 32.8 game developer at W3.8tr. On February 18 th , Netmarble is expected to unveil its new Beta (12M) 0.98 lineup, which will include a mobile version of Lineage II . 52-Week Low 169,000 52-Week High 244,000 Maintain Buy and Raise TP to W400,000 (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M We are raising our target price on NCSOFT to W400,000 (from W270,000), applying a Absolute 17.4 9.6 9.6 P/E of 32.4x—the stock’s peak multiple during the 2014 release of Blade & Soul China . Relative 17.6 16.0 12.3 Following the January launch of Blade & Soul US , the Blade & Soul China mobile version is expected to come out sometime in late February or March. 120 NCSOFT KOSPI 110 In addition, the commercial launch of Master X Master (MXM) and four mobiles titles 100 based on Lineage I and Lineage II, as well as a series of beta tests for Lineage Eternal, are slated for 2016. We think the market is steadily beginning to price in expectations of 90 earnings improvements for 2017. 80 70 2.15 6.15 10.15 2.16 Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 754 757 839 837 933 1,139 [Internet/Game/Entertainment] OP (Wbn) 151 205 278 237 321 390 Chang-kwean Kim OP margin (%) 20.0 27.1 33.1 28.3 34.4 34.2 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 156 159 230 187 269 321 [email protected] EPS (W) 7,120 7,245 10,487 8,549 12,254 14,637 ROE (%) 16.8 14.8 18.4 13.2 17.0 17.7 Jeong-yeob Park +822-768-4124 P/E (x) 21.1 34.3 17.4 24.9 19.5 16.4 [email protected] P/B (x) 3.0 4.4 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. February 5, 2016 NCSOFT Earnings and forecasts Table 111.1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q11Q11Q151Q1 555 2Q12Q12Q152Q1 555 3Q13Q13Q153Q1 555 4Q14Q14Q15F4Q1 5F5F5F 1Q11Q11Q16F1Q1 6F6F6F 2Q12Q12Q16F2Q1 6F6F6F 3Q13Q13Q16F3Q1 6F6F6F 4Q14Q14Q164Q1 666FFFF 2012012014201 444 2012012015F201 5F5F5F 2012012016201 666FFFF Revenue 188 218 196 236 203 222 247 261 839 837 933 Lineage I 66 85 78 84 76 86 78 85 263 314 324 Lineage II 11 16 16 15 14 13 14 15 59 58 57 Aion 18 20 17 20 17 19 18 20 94 75 75 Blade & Soul 27 30 25 24 24 23 24 24 83 105 94 Guild Wars 2 20 22 21 51 26 23 25 25 86 114 99 WildStar 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 50 9 4 MXM 0 0 0 0 0 10 24 21 0 0 55 Royalties 26 21 23 24 28 26 26 26 137 94 106 Other 18 20 15 16 17 21 36 47 67 68 119 Revenue portion Lineage I 35.1 39.3 40.0 35.5 37.4 38.7 31.6 32.4 31.4 37.4 34.8 Lineage II 5.9 7.5 8.0 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.9 5.6 7.1 7.0 6.1 Aion 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.8 7.4 7.5 11.3 9.0 8.0 Blade & Soul 14.2 13.7 12.7 10.2 11.6 10.1 9.7 9.0 9.9 12.6 10.0 Guild Wars 2 10.6 10.3 10.6 21.6 12.6 10.5 10.3 9.5 10.2 13.6 10.6 WildStar 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 5.9 1.0 0.5 MXM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 9.7 8.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 Royalties 13.6 9.6 11.7 10.2 13.8 11.7 10.5 9.9 16.3 11.2 11.4 Other 9.5 9.4 7.6 6.6 8.1 9.2 14.4 18.0 8.0 8.2 12.8 Operating expenses 143 150 145 162 141 154 154 164 561 600 612 Operating profit 45 67 51 75 62 69 93 97 278 237 321 OP margin (%) 23.9 30.8 25.9 31.6 30.6 30.9 37.5 37.3 33.2 28.3 34.4 Net profit 36 58 31 61 52 58 76 80 227 186 266 Net margin (%) 18.9 26.6 15.7 26.0 25.9 26.0 30.7 30.6 27.1 22.2 28.5 YoY growth Revenue 5.6 1.7 -7.5 0.4 7.8 2.3 26.1 10.5 10.8 -0.2 11.4 Lineage I 61.0 50.3 14.2 -13.4 14.8 0.6 -0.3 0.9 -8.6 19.1 3.4 Lineage II -5.0 19.9 5.2 -20.4 31.6 -17.1 -7.2 -6.2 4.1 -1.8 -2.4 Aion -17.8 9.5 -49.1 -4.6 -4.3 -3.0 9.0 -2.3 -1.4 -20.5 -0.4 Blade & Soul 39.2 55.6 26.1 -2.3 -12.2 -24.4 -3.7 -2.1 20.1 27.5 -11.3 Guild Wars 2 -20.3 1.2 5.1 164.8 27.3 3.7 22.2 -51.6 -30.6 33.4 -13.5 WildStar - -92.6 -89.3 -57.9 -41.8 -41.7 -35.8 -80.5 - -82.4 -50.8 Royalties -42.5 -44.2 3.1 -26.0 9.3 24.0 13.3 7.9 107.5 -31.6 13.2 Other 23.9 13.1 -16.1 -4.7 -7.3 0.4 140.2 202.5 15.9 2.3 74.3 Operating profit 0.8 3.3 -37.8 -14.6 38.4 2.4 82.9 30.5 35.5 -14.8 35.2 Net profit -2.7 9.5 -59.5 -1.6 47.4 -0.1 146.8 30.2 43.4 -18.4 43.3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 222.2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised % chg. 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F Revenue 837 933 837 933 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 233 317 237 321 1.7 1.3 Net profit 186 268 187 269 0.5 0.4 EPS 8,495 12,232 8,549 12,254 0.6 0.2 OP margin 27.8 34.0 28.3 34.4 0.5 0.4 Net margin 22.2 28.7 22.3 28.8 0.1 0.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 February 5, 2016 NCSOFT Figure 111.1.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • In- and Out-Of-Character
    Florida State University Libraries 2016 In- and Out-of-Character: The Digital Literacy Practices and Emergent Information Worlds of Active Role-Players in a New Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game Jonathan Michael Hollister Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF COMMUNICATION & INFORMATION IN- AND OUT-OF-CHARACTER: THE DIGITAL LITERACY PRACTICES AND EMERGENT INFORMATION WORLDS OF ACTIVE ROLE-PLAYERS IN A NEW MASSIVELY MULTIPLAYER ONLINE ROLE-PLAYING GAME By JONATHAN M. HOLLISTER A Dissertation submitted to the School of Information in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2016 Jonathan M. Hollister defended this dissertation on March 28, 2016. The members of the supervisory committee were: Don Latham Professor Directing Dissertation Vanessa Dennen University Representative Gary Burnett Committee Member Shuyuan Mary Ho Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the dissertation has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii For Grandpa Robert and Grandma Aggie. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you to my committee, for their infinite wisdom, sense of humor, and patience. Don has my eternal gratitude for being the best dissertation committee chair, mentor, and co- author out there—thank you for being my friend, too. Thanks to Shuyuan and Vanessa for their moral support and encouragement. I could not have asked for a better group of scholars (and people) to be on my committee. Thanks to the other members of 3 J’s and a G, Julia and Gary, for many great discussions about theory over many delectable beers.
    [Show full text]
  • Online Media Business Models: Lessons from the Video Game Sector
    Komorowski, M and Delaere, S. (2016). Online Media Business Models: Lessons from the Video Game Sector. Westminster Papers in Communication and Culture, 11(1), 103–123, DOI: http://dx.doi. org/10.16997/wpcc.220 RESEARCH ARTICLE Online Media Business Models: Lessons from the Video Game Sector Marlen Komorowski and Simon Delaere imec-SMIT, Vrije Universiteit, Brussels, BE Corresponding author: Marlen Komorowski ([email protected]) Today’s media industry is characterized by disruptive changes and business models have been acknowledged as a driving force for success. Current business model research manages only to grasp static descriptions while in reality media managers are struggling with the dynamics of the industry. This article aims to close this gap by investigating a new paradigm of online media business models. Based on three video game case studies of the massively multiplayer online role-playing game genre, this article explores a novel theoretical approach to explain the changes that can be made within business models. The article highlights the importance of changing processes within online media business models and emphasises that the video game sector is at the forefront of business innovation. Finally, it demonstrates that online media business model change is in a trade-off paradigm between capturing or offering potentially higher value per player vs. accessing a potentially larger player-base. Key words: Media industry; business model; process; disruption; video game sector Introduction Today’s media industry is characterized by disruptive transformations shaped by digitization. Digitization is not only generating new business opportunities but threatens traditional commercialization strategies and is proving highly unpredictable with regards to future market development.
    [Show full text]
  • Famitsu PC Game Sales Ranking: April 2007
    Famitsu PC Game Sales Ranking: April 2007 Data Collected: from April 1 to April 30, 2007 Game Titles Month Copies Cumulative This Last Price Average Before Title Platform Publisher Sales Date Genre Sold/Month Copies Sold Month Month (incl. tax) Price Last (Estimated) (Estimated) Final Fantasy XI: Treasures of Aht Urhgan 12 4 Win2000/XP SQUARE ENIX 04-20-06 Open ¥7,900 RPG 3,409 44,215 All-in-One Pack 2006 Medieval 2: Total War Japanese Version - 2 NEW Windows XP SEGA 04-05-07 ¥8,190 ¥7,250 Sim 3,151 3,151 Limited First Release 3 3 Lineage II: Interlude - Beginner's Kit Win2000/XP/Vista NC Japan 03-09-07 ¥3,150 ¥2,865 RPG 2,979 6,011 4 15 7 Nobunaga no Yabo Online: Haten no Sho Win2000/XP KOEI 12-13-06 ¥7,140 ¥6,205 RPG 2,502 8,831 5 7 3 Nobunaga no Yabo: Tenka Sosei Win2000/XP SOURCENEXT 10-06-06 ¥3,970 ¥3,562 Sim 1,936 13,602 6 8 The Sims 2: Seasons! Expansion Pack Win98/Me/2000/XP/Vista Electronic Arts 03-22-07 Open ¥2,864 DAT 1,618 3,636 7 4 5 SimCity 4: Deluxe Win98/Me/2000/XP Electronic Arts 09-25-03 ¥5,980 ¥4,738 Sim 1,518 62,996 8 1 Lineage II: Interlude - Master's Kit Win2000/XP/Vista NC Japan 03-09-07 ¥6,300 ¥5,675 RPG 1,317 11,737 9 10 1 Flight Simulator X WinXP/Vista Microsoft 01-26-07 ¥9,870 ¥9,187 Sim 1,296 10,802 Hoshi no Oujo: Uchu Ishiki ni Mezameta 10 5 Win98/Me/2000/XP Mirai 03-23-07 ¥4,801 ¥4,330 Adv 1,255 3,440 Yoshitsune - For All Ages 11 11 2 Sukatto Golf Pangya: Marugoto Kit Win2000/XP Gamepot 01-19-07 ¥2,940 ¥2,826 Act 1,107 14,910 QuinRos 12 6 16 Heart no Kuni no Alice: Wonderful Wonder World Win98/Me/2000/XP e
    [Show full text]
  • Lineage 2M Pre-Registration Faring Well
    NCSOFT (036570.KS) Lineage 2M pre-registration faring well Company Comment │ Sep 9, 2019 Pre-registration for NCSOFT’s Lineage 2M chalked up over 2mn subscribers within the first 18 hours. Large-scale marketing events for the title are scheduled for Oct 15, with an official launch expected in November. In light of strong expectations for Lineage 2M, we anticipate considerable earnings Buy (maintain) growth in 2020. TP W750,000 (maintain) CP (’19/09/09) W552,000 Sector Game Lineage 2M set to make domestic mobile game history Kospi/Kosdaq 2,009.13 / 631.15 Market cap (common) US$10,150.43mn We maintain a Buy rating on NCSOFT, our top pick in the game sector, with a Outstanding shares (common) 22.0mn TP of W750,000. Following a showcase for Lineage 2M and the initiation of 52W high (’19/09/06) W552,000 low (’18/09/06) W399,500 pre-registration for the title on Sep 5, preparations for the game’s official launch Average trading value (60D) US$27.89mn are now in the final stages. Large-scale marketing events are slated for Oct 15, Dividend yield (2019E) 1.10% with an official launch expected in November. With the success of Lineage 2M Foreign ownership 50.8% becoming more and more certain, expectations towards NCSOFT’s earnings Major shareholders should rise, in turn pumping the company’s share price. NPS 12.6% TJ Kim & 8 others 12.0% Pre-registration for Lineage 2M drew over 2mn subscribers in just the first 18 Share perf 3M 6M 12M hours, an incredible figure.
    [Show full text]
  • Ncsoft (036570 KS) Positive Momentum Abound in 1Q
    NCsoft (036570 KS) Positive momentum abound in 1Q Game Strong performances by Blade & Soul China and Guild Wars 2 in the US/Europe NCsoft’s 4Q revenue and operating profit climbed 23.7% and 84.7% QoQ to W210bn Results Comment and W56.7bn, respectively. Operating expenses jumped more than W14bn QoQ on February 14, 2014 contract payments for the company’s pro baseball team and year-end emplo yee bonuses. Regardless, overall earnings improved, boosted by royalty income from Blade & Soul China (estimated at W22bn) and stronger-than-expected revenue from Guild Wars (Maintain) Buy 2 in the US and Europe (W33.5bn in 4Q vs. W24.4bn in 3Q). The first royalty income from Blade & Soul China beat both ou r expectations and the Target Price (12M, W) 310,000 market’s, raising the outlook for 2014 earnings. We believe the sharp growth of Guild Wars 2 in the US and Europe is a testament to the company’s superior profit model and Share Price (02/13/14, W) 215,000 the extensive lifecycles of its games (as previously demonstrated by the success of Lineage in Korea). Expected Return 44% Positive momentum abound in 1Q14 We see a number of positive events and news on the horizon in 1Q14. Blade & Soul OP (13F, Wbn) 205 China will be officially released in 1Q14 following ongoing open beta testing (began Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 202 November 28, 2013), and will feature additional levels of play and plenty of end-game EPS Growth (13F, %) 1.6 content. We expect to see another huge boost in user indicators after the game’s Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 3.3 official commercialization.
    [Show full text]
  • NCSOFT / Arenanet Género: MMORG Formato: PC Idioma: Manual Y Textos En Castellano Fecha De Lanzamiento: 2012 Pegi: 12 + Web
    Título: Guild Wars 2 Distribuidora: Koch Media Editor/Desarrollador: NCSOFT / Arenanet Género: MMORG Formato: PC Idioma: Manual y textos en castellano Fecha de Lanzamiento: 2012 Pegi: 12 + Web: www.guildwars2.com Descripción del juego Guild Wars 2 es un MMO visualmente impresionante, que ofrece a los jugadores la grandeza épica que rodea un juego de rol masivo combinado con un sistema de combate innovador, una experiencia dinámica de juego interactivo con historias personalizadas. En Guild Wars 2, ArenaNet incorpora un modo de juego innovador que permite a los usuarios jugar a su manera, pero manteniendo el desarrollo tradicional que Guild Wars mostró desde sus orígenes, y se mantiene, como en su anterior entrega, sin cuota de suscripción mensual. La saga original de Guild Wars ha vendido más de 6 millones de unidades en todo el mundo, y sigue disfrutando de una serie de jugadores activos y leales que esperan con impaciencia esta secuela. Características Las decisiones personales afectan al desarrollo del juego: Una experiencia dinámica de juego interactiva. Sus opciones y acciones generan un efecto real en el mundo que te rodea. ¿Los habitantes lucharán contra la arrasadora legión centauro o sucumbirán al ataque? ¡Tú decides! Sistema de eventos dinámicos: hace referencia a cualquier evento que ocurre en una zona persistente como resultado de la interacción de los personajes explorando el mundo. Son llamados dinámicos porque cambian constantemente en nuevos eventos, creando un efecto cascada. Una vez que el evento comience se desarrollará independientemente de si hay jugadores en la zona o no. Debido a esto, no existe un concepto real de fracaso o éxito, el resultado de cualquier evento simplemente causará un cambio en la zona.
    [Show full text]
  • Ncsoft Earnings Release Q3, 2007 November 7, 2007
    NCsoft Earnings Release Q3, 2007 November 7, 2007 NCsoft CORPORATION OK-san Bldg 157-33, Samsung-dong, Kangnam-gu, Seoul 135-090, KOREA | Tel: +82-2-2186-3300 Fax : +82-2-2186-3550 Copyright ⓒ NCsoft Corporation. All Rights Reserved WWW.NCSOFT.COM Global Online Game Publisher NCsoft Table of Contents 01.01 Disclaimer 02.02 Consolidated Company 03.03 Earnings Highlights | 01 04.04 User Statistics | 10 05.05 Appendix – Parent Earnings | 13 Global Online Game Publisher NCsoft Disclaimer Disclaimer The financial results for 3Q 2007 have been prepared on an un-audited basis, and may be subject to change during independent auditing process. Some of the information and data in the material have been prepared based on assumptions. There can be no assurance that the assumptions used by NCsoft are correct and even if they are, that the effect of such assumptions on NCsoft’s business and results of operations will be as projected. Therefore, NCsoft will not be responsible for individual investment decisions based solely on this material. Global Online Game Publisher NCsoft Consolidated Company The consolidated company NCsoftNCsoft (Controlling(Controlling Company)Company) ConsolidatedConsolidated SubsidiariesSubsidiaries EquityEquity MethodMethod AffiliatesAffiliates NCNC InteractiveInteractive (100%)(100%) OrionOrion SoftSoft (100%)(100%) ArenaNetArenaNet (100%) (100%) JJ InteractiveInteractive (100%)(100%) NCNC EuropeEurope (100%)(100%) NCRCNCRC (100%)(100%) NCNC JapanJapan (60%)(60%) NCsoftNCsoft JapanJapan (100%)(100%) NCNC TaiwanTaiwan (85%)(85%)
    [Show full text]
  • Social Media: /Gamingdotme Why Choose Gamingdotme
    SOCIAL MEDIA: /GAMINGDOTME WHY CHOOSE GAMINGDOTME A solid proof of how we fit in the digital gaming and entertainment zone and compatible with the changing vision of the E-market, from original websites, mobile applications, digital marketing campaigns execution, B2B gift/gaming cards distribution, and sports data web solutions. Our grounded policies based on data analysis stats and skilled team grant us the trust of our clients and the success we look for. No matter what you need, we mediate the right product. Get everything quick, safe and comfortable from one platform with the best prices – GAMINGDOTME. Our greatest strengths are customer friendliness, the quickness in our business processes and our convenient sellers’ pricing. Our straight positive customer ratings are the best proof. Sellers support you 24 hours a day, starting before the order with useful information about all the products, through the process of the delivery, and even after the completion. GAMINGDOTME has evolved to be the Lebanese market leader and a top player in the Europian and US markets for game services including digital products, virtual goods, and shopping cards over the past few years. The range of products is constantly increasing, and thanks to regular special offers, the seller Deals, our customers and digital marketing services we strive to stay the best and provide the best for our partners and customers. GAMINGDOTME - Your partner in the world of games and online cards! You will be delighted with our quick delivery, our wide range of products, and our great service Notice of Confidentiality This document contains information that is confidential and proprietary forGaming DOT ME LTD.
    [Show full text]
  • Ncsoft (036570 KS/Buy)
    August 20, 2010 Korea – Equity Research Chang Kwean Kim +822-768-4321 [email protected] Jee-Hyun Moon +822-768-3615 [email protected] NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy) 2011F Earnings to benefit from Guild Wars 2 Demonstration of Guild Wars 2 and Aion 2.0 at GamesCom, which opened in Germany on August 18 Expect commercial launch of Guild Wars 2 during summer 2011 Guild Wars 2 should outperform Guild Wars 1 with cumulative CD sales topping 6.5mn copies globally Maintain Buy on NCsoft with target price of W280,000 Demonstration of Guild Wars 2 to boost shares NCsoft demonstrated Guild Wars 2 at GamesCom, a European trade fair for interactive games, which opened in Germany on August 18. We believe that the demonstration of Guild Wars 2 has eased concerns about delays, one of the biggest risks associated with investment in game companies. We forecast the company to commercially launch the MMORPG game in summer 2011, given that: 1) the game was confirmed to be highly sophisticated at GamesCom; and 2) Blizzard’s real-time strategy game Starcraft II, which had been delayed, was commercialized in July 2010, one year after its demonstration at the largest American game conference PAX in September 2009. We expect Guild Wars 2 to outperform Guild Wars 1 with cumulative CD sales topping 6.5mn copies globally, as: 1) The company added new features (e.g. level-up – preferred by Asian players), while maintaining the strengths of the original game, including PvP (multiplayer interactive feature that enables gamers to play against other live participants), which proved to be popular with North American and European players.
    [Show full text]
  • " Get a Free Item Pack with Every Activation!"--Do Incentives Increase the Adoption Rates of Two-Factor Authentication?
    ... ...; aop ... Karoline Busse*, Sabrina Amft, Daniel Hecker, and Emanuel von Zezschwitz “Get a Free Item Pack with Every Activation!” Do Incentives Increase the Adoption Rates of Two-Factor Authentication? https://doi.org/..., Received ...; accepted ... Abstract: Account security is an ongoing issue in practice. Two-Factor Authen- tication (2FA) is a mechanism which could help mitigate this problem, however adoption is not very high in most domains. Online gaming has adopted an in- teresting approach to drive adoption: Games offer small rewards such as visual modifications to the player’s avatar’s appearance, if players utilize 2FA. Inthis paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of these incentives and investigate how they can be applied to non-gaming contexts. We conducted two surveys, one recruiting gamers and one recruiting from a general population. In addition, we conducted three focus group interviews to evaluate various incentive designs for both, the gaming context and the non-gaming context. We found that visual modifications, which are the most popular type of gaming-related incentives, are not as popular in non-gaming contexts. However, our design explorations indicate that well-chosen incentives have the potential to lead to more users adopting 2FA, even outside of arXiv:1910.07269v1 [cs.CR] 16 Oct 2019 the gaming context. Keywords: Two-Factor Authentication, Incentives, Gamification, Usable Security, Authentication, User Research PACS: ... Communicated by: ... Dedicated to ... *Corresponding author: Karoline Busse, Daniel Hecker, University of Bonn Sabrina Amft, Leibniz University Hannover Emanuel von Zezschwitz, University of Bonn & Fraunhofer FKIE 2 Busse, Amft, Hecker, von Zezschwitz (a) (b) Fig. 1: Examples of incentives for adopting 2FA.
    [Show full text]
  • NCSOFT (036570 KS) Strong Momentum to Come from New Releases and 1Q Earnings
    NCSOFT (036570 KS) Strong momentum to come from new releases and 1Q earnings Game Raising 1Q16F OP on higher-than-expected Blade & Soul US revenue We now forecast NCSOFT’s 1Q revenue at W229bn (+21.8% YoY) and operating profit Company Update at W85bn (+90.5% YoY), which is well above the current consensus (W67.3bn). We March 11, 2016 adjusted up our 1Q earnings estimate, as we expect revenue from Blade & Soul US (launched on January 19 th ) to be higher than previously anticipated, given the title’s stabilizing traffic trends. (Maintain) Buy We upped our Blade & Soul US revenue estimates from W10bn to W20bn for 1Q and from W10bn to W15bn for 2Q-4Q each. But even with the revision s, our assumptions Target Price (12M, W) 420,000 appear conservative compared with the revenues recorded from Blade & Soul Taiwan and Guild Wars 2 . Share Price (03/10/16, W) 263,500 We see a chance of Blade & Soul US revenue exceeding W30bn in 1Q, if we model the Expected Return 59% revenue per server from Blade & Soul Taiwan (released on November 26, 2014 based on a microtransaction model) into our estimates (13 servers in Taiwan vs. 34 in the US). OP (15F, Wbn) 237 Traditional titles, including Lineage and Blade & Soul , are also showing stable traffic. Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 238 Meanwhile, we did not incorporate potential earnings from the upcoming Lineage I microtransaction event (scheduled for March 16 th ) and from Blade & Soul Mobile in EPS Growth (15F, %) -26.9 China (non-wipe launch on March 7 th ; no.
    [Show full text]
  • Copyrighted Material
    35_752738 bindex.qxp 11/2/05 7:36 PM Page 319 Index groups, 121 • Numerics • system requirements, 37 1984 (Orwell), 303 technical support, 113 3D accelerator video cards, 16, 66–71 Web site, 266 3DO (first publisher of MMGs), 17 anonymity, 147–148 anonymous-invite guilds, 172, 174–175 appeals, 107–109, 304 • A • appearance of characters, 79 archetypes A key (EverQuest), 288 characters, 80–83 AC (Armor Class), 304 guilds, 171–172 Achaea, 49–50 Area Of Effect (AOE), 133, 304 achiever guilds, 172–174 ArenaNet’s Guild Wars, 36 active roleplaying, 223 Armor Class (AC), 304 activities Armor Factor (AF), 304 endgames, 192–194 Armyn ab Treanid guild (Dark Age of first-week activities of characters, 97 Camelot), 162–169 add, 304 Asheron’s Call addiction description of, 31 studies about, 280 fan site, 269 warning signs, 278–280 groups, 121 advancement of characters player achievements, 301 endgame, 190 Shard of the Herald, 228 levels, 24–26 system requirements, 31 mentoring, 24–25 technical support, 113 models for, 24 VN Board, 291 quests, 98 Web site, 266 sidekicking, 24 Asian MMGs, 42–43 skills, 25–26 asking for help, 92, 289 advertising methods for online merchants, /assist command, 134, 287, 304 211–212 ATI, manufacturer of video cards, 67 AF (Armor Factor), 304 COPYRIGHTEDAuction MATERIAL House (AH), 304 AFK (Away from Keyboard), 304 Author’s blog (Broken Toys), 294 aftermarket sales and service, 219 Auto Assault, 54–55 Age of Conan, 54 avatars, 12 agg/aggro, 304 avoiding trouble, 114–115 AH (Auction House), 304 Away from Keyboard (AFK), 304 Allakhazam’s Magic Realm Web site, 293 alliances of guilds, 183 alts, 125, 304 • B • ammunition, 238 Anarchy Online BAF (Bring a Friend), 305 description of, 37 bags, 103 fan site, 269 balancing gameplay with your life, 277–280 35_752738 bindex.qxp 11/2/05 7:36 PM Page 320 320 Massively Multiplayer Games For Dummies Baldur’s Gate, 24 Bring a Friend (BAF), 305 banker, 181 broadband Internet access, 63–64 banking, 204 Broken Toys blog, 294 banks, 199, 202 BRT (Be Right There), 306 Baron Geddon monster (World of Bruce, Walter R.
    [Show full text]