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Sfcta Summary SFCTA Regional Transportation Model Summary San Francisco County Transportation Authority Transportation Modeling System Overview and Summary Introduction One of the first tour-based micro-simulation models that is being used extensively in planning is the model system created by Cambridge Systematics and Parsons Brinckerhoff for the San Francisco County Transportation Authority, completed in 2000. The model system was designed to use the “full day pattern” modeling approach, first introduced by Bowman and Ben-Akiva at MIT (1). The main feature of the “full day pattern” approach is that it simultaneously predicts the main components of all of a person’s travel across the day. The concept of the tour is used to represent travel. A tour is a sequence of trips that begin and end either at home (Home-Based Tour) or work (Work-Based Sub-Tour). A synthesized population of San Francisco residents is input to the component models of vehicle availability, day pattern choice (tour generation), tour time of day choice, destination choice and mode choice. Destination and mode choice are predicted at both the tour and the trip level. The synthesized tours and trips are aggregated to represent flows between traffic analysis zones before traffic assignment. The model system predicts the choices for a full, representative sample of residents of San Francisco County, almost 800,000 simulated individual person-days of travel. In the San Francisco Model, a micro-simulation framework is applied to individuals and households making vehicle ownership, trip pattern, and trip destination and mode choices; many of these models are logit formulations. A Monte Carlo method is used select outcomes according to these logit model probabilities based on random number draws. Each time the sequence of random numbers used to simulate choices is varied, the model result, or ‘end state’ of the model may change. The SF Model predicts demand for SF County residents only. The SF Model relies on the Bay Area regional travel demand model, developed and maintained by Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC Model), for non-resident travel demand, including non-home-based trips made entirely within SF County by non-SF County residents. The MTC model is an aggregate trip-based model with three trip purposes (HBW, HBO, NHB) run for approximately 2,000 TAZs. pbConsult, Inc. Page 1 SFCTA Regional Transportation Model Summary FIGURE 1 San Francisco model components. Population Zonal Synthesizer Data Person All Models Records Workplace Vehicle Location Availability Model Model Full-Day Tour Accessibility Logsum Variables Pattern Models Measures Time of Day Models Nonwork Tour Network Level Destination Trip Diary of Service Variables Records Choice Models Logsum All Remaining Tour Mode Models Choice Models Intermediate Visitor Trip Stop Location and Destination Choice Choice Model Visitor Trip Trip Mode Mode Choice Choice Regional Trip Tables Model for NonSF Trips Trip Tables Transit Highway Assignment by Assignment by Time Period (5) Time Period (5) pbConsult, Inc. Page 2 SFCTA Regional Transportation Model Summary Travel Survey Database The SF Model was estimated based on the 1990 MTC Household Survey. The 1990 survey collected single weekday travel data from nearly 9,400 Bay Area households and multiple- weekday travel data from nearly 1,500 Bay Area households. The 1990 survey effort also included a separate sub-project, funded by the Bay Area Rapid Transit District, to collect multiple-weekday travel data from 1,000 BART-using households. (The BART-using households were identified and contacted based on responses to on board surveys conducted by the BART District in 1988 and 1989). The BART survey and the MTC multiple-weekday survey were completed in the spring of 1990; the MTC single-weekday survey was continued and completed during the autumn of 1990. Only data for SF residents were used for model estimation, about 1,500 households. The survey was a trip-based survey, not activity based. Only information on each trip, including from and to purpose, was collected. There were 3,100 approximately person-days and 4,200 tours upon which to estimate the SF Model. The lack of an on-board survey presented some challenges in the model development process. Transfer rates for various modes had to be inferred from total expanded trips by mode and total boardings by mode, and significant effort was required to adjust alternative-specific constants to match observed transit boardings. SFCTA has recently engaged consultants support and will be designing and conducting the first MUNI on-board transit survey in 27 years. This survey should be complete by the end of 2003 and provide data upon which to re-calibrate mode choice models. Transportation Networks Highway and transit networks are maintained in the TP+ software package. This software is also used for building highway and transit level-of-service skims and for assigning trip tables to transport networks. The MTC models are also implemented in the TP+ package, but rely on separate networks. The SF Model networks offer a very high level of detail in SF County but are similar to the MTC level of detail in the other 8 counties in the Bay Area. There are approximately 750 TAZs in SF County in the SF Model, and only 127 TAZs in SF County in the MTC model. The SF Model links represent every street in SF County, whereas the MTC model only represents major arterials or greater link classification. There are 51,000 links and 1,739 zones in the full system. The high level of network and TAZ detail in the SF Model precludes the need for any walk market segmentation within a TAZ. Almost all TAZs in the SF Model have walk-access to transit as a result of the automated walk link coding procedure offered in the TP+ transit path builder. There is only one PNR lot in SF County, at the SF/San Mateo border. There are five (5) time periods in the SF Model. Each time period has a separate transit network, but shares a single highway network. They are: · Early A.M. (3 A.M. to 6 A.M.) · A.M. Peak (6 A.M. to 9 A.M.) · Midday (9 A.M. to 3:30 P.M.) · P.M. Peak (3:30 P.M. to 6:30 P.M.) · Evening (6:30 P.M. to 3 A.M.) pbConsult, Inc. Page 3 SFCTA Regional Transportation Model Summary There are four ‘primary’ transit modes (Local Bus, MUNI Rail, Premium, and BART) and a number of modal combinations (Local Bus to MUNI Rail, etc.) possible in the SF Transit networks. Each mode is disaggregated by mode of access and mode of egress. Auto access/egress is only allowed for premium transit or BART. Note that because these are tour- based models, the tradition of assuming building transit skims in production-attraction format is not observed. All highway and transit skims are build in origin-destination format by time period. The ‘combined’ modes can be collapsed with the ‘primary’ modes by imposing a ‘hierarchy’ of modes on the skim-building process. The hierarchy is determined by the modes available for each set of skims, which are listed below. This method requires relying on the transit path- builder to determine which modes are actually utilized for each zone-pair and skim set. For example, when building BART skims, some portion of zones will have direct walk access to BART, while others will require walk to bus with a transfer to BART. Table 1 shows the hierarchy of modes used in the SF Model. To ensure that the path-builder will include the primary mode where it is available, the primary mode in-vehicle time is weighted in the path-building process to give it an advantage over the other available modes. In application, the mode choice program will test the skims to make sure that the primary mode was included in the path. Table 1: Hierarchy of Modes Primary Mode Available Modes Local Bus Local Bus Only MUNI Rail MUNI Rail and Local Bus Premium Transit Premium Transit, Local Bus, MUNI Rail BART BART, Local Bus, MUNI Rail, Premium Transit Land Use and Demographic Data Input Socioeconomic data were developed from parcel-level data aggregated to traffic analysis zones and adjusted to match control totals, as follows: · The San Francisco Planning Department provided a current parcel database and a current business and employment database. The parcel database provides current estimates of residential units at the block and lot level and the business and employment database contains current estimates of employment by type at the block and lot level. These are aggregated to the traffic analysis zones. · The Planning Department and the Port of San Francisco maintain lists of new development projects under construction, approved, and under review, as well as information on development potential for major area plans. These are used to allocate forecast data by traffic analysis zone. · The Association of Bay Area Governments’ Projections ‘98 is used as a control total for county-wide forecasts of population and employment. The employment data in San Francisco uses a different categorization compared to the MTC data. The original MTC databases classified employment by six categories – retail, service, pbConsult, Inc. Page 4 SFCTA Regional Transportation Model Summary other, agricultural, manufacturing and trade. The new San Francisco socioeconomic databases classified employment by a different set of six categories – CIE (Cultural, Institutional, and Educational), MED (medical), MIPS (Management, Information and Professional Services), PDR (Production, Distribution and Repair), Retail, and Visitor. Most models retain the distinctive employment categories, but some use a common set of categories across all areas. Basic information on the SIC codes falling under each category was used to regroup these 12 fields into four categories – PDR, MIPS, Retail, and Service.
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