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Guide for Travel Model Transfer Guide for Travel Model Transfer Date: October 2014 FHWA-HEP-15-006 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. FHWA-HEP- 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Guide for Travel Model Transfer October 2014 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Authors 8. Performing Organization Report Thomas F. Rossi, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. No. Chandra R, Bhat, University of Texas, Austin 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 100 CambridgePark Drive, Suite 400 Cambridge, MA 02140 11. Contract or Grant No. DTFH61-13-P-00162 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period United States Department of Transportation Covered Federal Highway Administration 8/29/2013 to 10/31/2014 1200 New Jersey Ave. SE 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, DC 20590 HEPP-30 15. Supplementary Notes The project was managed by Sarah Sun, COR for Federal Highway Administration The report was reviewed by Raw, Jeremy (FHWA); Pihl, Eric (FHWA); Yoder, Supin (FHWA); Murakami, Elaine (FHWA); Gardner, Brian (FHWA) and Cervenka, Kenneth (FTA) 16. Abstract Travel demand models are important tools used in transportation planning to forecast the amount of travel expected to occur under various scenarios and to estimate the effects of changes in transportation supply or policies. The mathematical relationships in these models depend on parameters that reflect the sensitivity of travelers’ choices to the model’s input variables. The process of model transfer from one region to another has become commonplace as a way to obtain model parameter estimated when sufficient local data for model estimation. This report provides guidance to transportation planners on alternative approaches to model transfer based on the amount of available resources. The guidance, which is based on research that has been conducted on model transferability, sis supplemented with simple examples of the various model transfer methods. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Travel demand model transferability, model estimation, No restrictions. This document is available to the public model validation at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/tmip/. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 76 N/A Guide for Travel Model Transfer Guide for Travel Model Transfer Original: October 2014 Final: October 2014 Prepared by: Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Chandra R. Bhat, Ph.D. Thomas F. Rossi Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 100 CambridgePark Drive, Suite 400 Cambridge, MA 02140 Prepared for: Federal Highway Administration Guide for Travel Model Transfer Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Concepts of Model Transfer ......................................................................................... 4 1.2 Model Components and Parameters That May Be Transferred.................................... 5 1.3 Transferability Considerations ...................................................................................... 7 1.4 Methods for Model Transfer ......................................................................................... 7 1.5 Research Summary ....................................................................................................10 1.6 Glossary of Terms Used in This Report ......................................................................11 1.7 Report Organization ....................................................................................................11 2.0 Guidance and Recommended Methods for Model Parameter Development and Transfer ...................................................................................................................................12 2.1 Determining the Sufficiency of Local Data for Model Estimation..................................13 2.2 Choosing the Estimation Context ................................................................................14 2.3 Variable Specification .................................................................................................16 2.4 Selecting the Procedure for Obtaining Model Parameters ...........................................17 2.5 Model Validation and Calibration .................................................................................21 3.0 Examples of the Application of Model Transfer Methods ..............................................23 3.1 Simple Transfer ..........................................................................................................24 3.2 Transfer Scaling ..........................................................................................................24 3.3 Bayesian Updating ......................................................................................................25 3.4 Combined Transfer .....................................................................................................27 3.5 Joint Context Estimation .............................................................................................27 4.0 References .........................................................................................................................30 Appendix A Synthesis of Research on Transferability of Trip-Based Model Components 33 A.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................33 A.2 The Model Transferability Approach in the Context of the Four-Step Model ................33 A.3 Spatial Transferability of Activity-Based Travel Models ...............................................38 A.4 Synthesis of Data Transferability Studies ....................................................................41 A.5 Transferability Research Results ................................................................................42 Appendix B Model Transferability Measures ....................................................................45 B.1. Disaggregate Transferability Measures .......................................................................46 B.2. Aggregate Transferability Measures ...........................................................................47 Appendix C Research on Transferability of Trip-Based Model Components .................49 October 2014 1 Guide for Travel Model Transfer C.1 Trip Generation ...........................................................................................................49 C.2 Trip Distribution/Destination Choice ............................................................................52 C.3 Mode Choice ...............................................................................................................52 C.4 Route Choice ..............................................................................................................57 C.5 Data Transferability Studies ........................................................................................57 Appendix D Research on Transferability of Activity-Based Models ...............................61 D.1 Arentze et al., 2002 .....................................................................................................61 D.2 Nowrouzian and Srinivasan (2012) .............................................................................63 D.3 Sikder and Pinjari (2013).............................................................................................65 D.4 Bowman et al. (2013) ..................................................................................................67 List of Tables Table 2.1. Summary of Model Transfer Procedures ........................................................................18 Table 3.1. HBW Trip Productions by Number of Workers by Number of Autos – Urban Area B ..........23 Table 3.2. Sample Sizes from Survey for Urban Area B ...................................................................23 Table 3.3. Mean HBW Trip Rate Variances from Survey for Urban Area B .......................................24 Table 3.4. HBW Trip Productions by Number of Workers by Number of Autos for Urban Area A Using Transfer Scaling .........................................................................................................................24 Table 3.5. Sample Sizes from Survey for Urban Area A ...................................................................25 Table 3.6. HBW Trip Productions Estimated from the Small Survey Sample for Urban Area A ...........26 Table 3.7. Mean HBW Trip Rate Variances from Survey for Urban Area A .......................................26 2 Guide for Travel Model Transfer 1.0 Introduction Travel demand models are important tools used in transportation planning to forecast the amount of travel expected to occur under various scenarios and to estimate the effects of changes in transportation supply or policies. Travel models are most often applied for metropolitan areas but may also be applied for smaller areas (subareas, corridors, cities) and for larger areas (states, parts of states, and multistate corridors). In these models, the outputs are values for useful variables such as highway volumes, transit ridership at the route level, and the amount of travel from one part of the modeled area to another. These outputs are estimated using a set of mathematical relationships where the inputs are a set of known or readily estimated variables such as the
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