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Soundcast Model Design SoundCast: PSRC Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Model Featuring DAYSIM—the Person Day Simulator SoundCast Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Model for PSRC Featuring DAYSIM—the Person Day Activity and Travel Simulator Model System Design September 25, 2014 Prepared for Puget Sound Regional Council Prepared by John L. Bowman, Ph. D. Transportation Systems and Decision Sciences 5 Beals Street Apt. 3, Brookline, MA 02446 USA +1-617-232-3478 [email protected] http://JBowman.net MARK BRADLEY BRADLEY RESEARCH & CONSULTING 524 Arroyo Ave., Santa Barbara, CA 93109, USA. +1-805-564-3908 [email protected] Puget Sound Regional Council Resource Systems Group Cambridge Systematics page 1 SoundCast: PSRC Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Model Featuring DAYSIM—the Person Day Simulator Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 2 Introduction and Model System Overview ...................................................................................... 3 Model system .............................................................................................................................. 3 Daysim ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Model variables ........................................................................................................................... 5 Population Synthesizer .................................................................................................................... 6 Base year synthetic population .................................................................................................... 7 Forecast year synthetic population .............................................................................................. 8 Long Term Choice Simulator and DaySim ..................................................................................... 8 Long term choice models .......................................................................................................... 11 Day level models ....................................................................................................................... 11 Tour level models ...................................................................................................................... 11 Trip/stop level models ............................................................................................................... 12 Accessibility variables ............................................................................................................... 14 Recent Updates to Daysim ............................................................................................................ 17 The parcel land use data ............................................................................................................ 17 Changes to support the treatment of policy-based pricing ........................................................ 19 The use of path type choice models for all modes .................................................................... 21 Changes to specific DaySIM choice models ............................................................................. 23 Supplemental Trip Modeling: External, Trucks, Special Generation, and Group Quarters .......... 25 External Modeling ......................................................................................................................... 25 Special Generators ......................................................................................................................... 27 Group Quarters .............................................................................................................................. 27 Truck Model .................................................................................................................................. 29 Truck Model Parameters ........................................................................................................... 31 Network Assignment and Skimming ............................................................................................. 35 Skim and Trip Data Exchange ................................................................................................... 35 Skims ......................................................................................................................................... 36 Daysim Trips to EMME ................................................................................................................ 39 Appendix 1—DaySim Model Features ......................................................................................... 41 Appendix 2—DaySim Variables ................................................................................................... 44 Appendix 3 : DaySIM Software and Other Detailed Improvements ............................................ 49 Traveler- & tour-specific model coefficients ............................................................................ 50 Park and ride path type and lot choice model ........................................................................... 51 Treatment of transit pricing ....................................................................................................... 51 Pay to park at workplace model - estimation ............................................................................ 52 DaySim Software and Hardware ............................................................................................... 52 page 2 SoundCast: PSRC Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Model Featuring DAYSIM—the Person Day Simulator Introduction and Model System Overview Model system SoundCast is a travel demand model system built for the Puget Sound Region, as shown in Figure 1. The model was built to depict diverse human travel behavior and include travel sensitivity to land use and the built environment. SoundCast outputs transportation network measures such as highway volumes in one hour periods in a future year or number of boardings on a transit line. It also outputs measures related to people like average distance to work by home county or the number of transit trips different types of people will take. The three main components of SoundCast are: person trip demand in the Daysim activity-based model external, special generation, truck, and group quarters aggregate modeling assignment and skimming in EMME DaySim is a modeling approach and software platform to simulate resident daily travel and activities on a typical weekday for the residents of a metropolitan region or state. In essence, DaySim replaces the trip generation, trip distribution and mode choice steps of a 4- step model, while representing more aspects of travel behavior (auto ownership, trip chaining, time of day scheduling, detailed market segmentation, etc.) Daysim integrates with EMME by generating resident trip matrices for assignment and uses the network skims from assignment for the next global iteration of DaySim. The major inputs to SoundCast are transportation networks and modeled household and employment data from UrbanSim. In Daysim, The Population Synthesizer (PopSyn) creates a synthetic population, comprised of Census PUMS households, that is consistent with regional residential, employment and school enrollment forecasts. Long-term choices (work location, school location and auto ownership) are simulated for all members of the population. The Person Day Activity and Travel Simulator (DaySim) creates a one-day activity and travel schedule for each person in the population, including a list of their tours and the trips on each tour. The trips predicted by DaySim are aggregated into EMME trip matrices and combined with predicted trips for special generators, external trips and commercial traffic into time- and mode- specific trip matrices. The EMME network traffic assignment models load the trips onto the network. Traffic assignment is iteratively equilibrated with the Long Term Choice Simulator, DaySim and the other demand models. The parcel level land use inputs come from UrbanSim. page 3 SoundCast: PSRC Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Model Featuring DAYSIM—the Person Day Simulator Figure 1: New PSRC Regional Travel Forecasting Model System Daysim The following section describes the design features of PopSyn, the long term choices and DaySim. These include a description of each model component, definitions of the variables included in the simulated output, details about accessibility variables employed to help integrate the model system, and the sampling procedure used in the destination choice models. The sub- models in the system are: 1. Work Location 2. School Location 3. Pay to Park at Work 4. Transit Pass Ownership 5. Auto Ownership 6. Individual Person Day Pattern 7. Exact Number of Tours page 4 SoundCast: PSRC Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Model Featuring DAYSIM—the Person Day Simulator 8. Work Tour Destination 9. Other Tour Destination 10. Work-based subtour Generation 11. Work Tour Mode 12. Work Tour Time 13. School Tour Mode 14. School Tour Time 15. Escort Tour Mode 16. Escort Tour Time 17. Other Tour Mode 18. Other Tour Time 19. Work-Based Subtour Mode 20. Work-Based Subtour Time 21. Intermediate Stop Generation 22. Intermediate Stop Location 23. Trip Mode 24. Trip Time Model variables Table 1 lists the variables that
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