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Insite Model Estimation Report BMC InSITE Activity Based Model Estimation Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Overview of InSITE ................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Logsums for Upper Level Choice Models .......................................................................... 1-2 2.0 Component Model Estimation Results ................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Workplace Location Choice .................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 School Location Choice.......................................................................................................... 2-6 2.3 Vehicle Availability .............................................................................................................. 2-10 2.4 Transit Pass Ownership ....................................................................................................... 2-10 2.5 E-ZPass Transponder Ownership ...................................................................................... 2-11 2.6 Daily Activity Pattern and Fully Joint Tour Generation................................................. 2-13 2.7 School Escorting ................................................................................................................... 2-33 2.8 Tour Destination Choice...................................................................................................... 2-39 2.9 Individual Non-Mandatory Tour Generation .................................................................. 2-42 2.10 Tour Time of Day Choice .................................................................................................... 2-48 2.11 Tour Destination Choice...................................................................................................... 2-54 2.12 Stop Generation .................................................................................................................... 2-57 2-2.13 Work-Based Subtour Generation ....................................................................................... 2-62 2.14 Tour Mode Choice ................................................................................................................ 2-66 2.15 Stop Location Choice ........................................................................................................... 2-81 2.16 Stop Time of Day Choice ..................................................................................................... 2-86 2.17 Trip Mode Choice ................................................................................................................. 2-93 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i BMC InSITE Activity Based Model Estimation List of Tables Table 1.1 Utility Coefficients for Work and School Location Logsums ................................... 1-3 Table 1.2 Work Location Logsum Alternative Specific Constants ............................................... 1-4 Table 1.3 School Location Logsum Alternative Specific Constants ............................................. 1-4 Table 1.4 Time of Day Constants ...................................................................................................... 1-5 Table 1.5 Utility Coefficients for Accessibility Logsums ............................................................... 1-6 Table 1.6 Alternative Specific Constants for Accessibility Logsums ........................................... 1-7 Table 1.7 Size Coefficients for Accessibility Logsums ................................................................... 1-8 Table 1.8 Parking Cost Assumptions ............................................................................................... 1-9 Table 1.9 Regular Work and School Location Model Logsums .................................................. 1-11 Table 1.10 Vehicle Availability and Transit Pass Model Logsums .......................................... 1-11 Table 1.11 DAP Model Logsums ................................................................................................... 1-12 Table 1.12 Joint Tour Generation Model Logsums ..................................................................... 1-12 Table 1.13 Individual Non-Mandatory Tour Generation Model Logsums ............................ 1-13 Table 2.1. Mandatory Tour Options by Person Type3 .................................................................... 2-17 Table 2.2. Percentages of Children from Same Household Having Same Escort Decision ...... 2-34 Table 2.3. Alternatives in the School Escorting Model .................................................................. 2-35 Table 2.4. Duration Constants for Each Tour Purpose ................................................................... 2-49 Table 2.5. Shift Variable Values for Delay Variables ...................................................................... 2-51 Table 2.6. Alternatives for Work Based Subtour Generation Model ............................................ 2-63 Table 2.7 Mode Availability by Tour Purpose/Type ................................................................... 2-69 Table 2.8 Values of In-Vehicle Travel Time ................................................................................... 2-76 Table 2.9 Example Shift Variables................................................................................................... 2-90 Table 2.10 Examples of Shift Variable Offsets ............................................................................. 2-90 Table 2.11 Mode Availability by Tour Purpose/Type ............................................................... 2-95 1-ii Cambridge Systematics, Inc. BMC InSITE Activity Based Model Estimation List of Figures Figure 1.1 Activity Based Model Design .......................................................................................... 1 Figure 2.1. Multinomial Logit Structure for the Workplace Location Choice Model ..................... 4 Figure 2.2 Model Components Related to Daily Activity Pattern .............................................. 14 Figure 2.3. Latent Class DAP and Joint Model Interaction .............................................................. 16 Figure 2.4. Time Window Example ..................................................................................................... 22 Figure 2.5. Alternatives for the School Escorting Model .................................................................. 36 Figure 2.6 Nesting Structure for Stop Generation Model ............................................................ 58 Figure 2.7 Work and Non-Mandatory Tour Models .................................................................... 67 Figure 2.8 School/University Tour Model ..................................................................................... 68 Figure 2.9 Work-Based Subtour Model .......................................................................................... 68 Figure 2.8 Value of Time Distributions ........................................................................................... 77 Figure 2.9 Cumulative Value of Time Distributions ..................................................................... 78 Figure 2.10 Example of Stop Modeling Sequence ........................................................................... 87 Figure 2.11 Example of Time of Day Constraints with Multiple Tours ....................................... 88 Figure 2.12 Mode Availability by Tour Mode ................................................................................. 94 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii BMC InSITE Activity Based Model Estimation 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Overview of InSITE This report documents the model estimation for the components of the activity based model developed for the Baltimore Metropolitan Council (BMC) called InSITE. The model structure, shown in Figure 1.1, is documented in the model design report, Model Design Plan for BMC Activity-Based Model (Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 2013). Figure 1.1 Activity Based Model Design Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 1 BMC InSITE Activity Based Model Estimation The report is organized as follows. This chapter presents an overview of InSITE and a discussion of how logsums are generated for the upper level choice models in InSITE. The sections of Chapter 2 document the model estimation results for the individual components of the activity based model. 1.2 Logsums for Upper Level Choice Models This section details the development of logsums used for the upper level choice models of the BMC activity-based model. Overview For each model, different sets of logsums are used. In general, there are three types of logsums. The first two are workplace and school location logsums. These are based on the chosen workplace and school locations for workers and children and are across a single origin and destination pair. The other type is accessibility logsums, which are zone based accessibility measures across all destination zones. For each worker in a household, the logsum between home and work zones is the workplace logsum, and for each child in a household, the logsum between home and school zones is the school location logsum. In this case, the logsums are taken across different modal options. The two types of logsums are identical in concept, the only difference being which
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