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Measuring the Success of Isis

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Measuring the Success of Isis Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda: Exploring the Tactical Utility of Terrorist Affiliations in Africa By Brenda Mugeci Githing’u (Student no. 14176603) A mini-dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Security Studies (MSS) Department of Political Sciences Faculty of Humanities at the University of Pretoria Supervisor: Mr Roland D. Henwood November 2018 i ABSTRACT The study aimed to determine whether Al-Shabaab’s affiliation to Al-Qaeda contributes to its capacity to instigate mass casualty attacks. In doing so, the study analysed the number of attacks instigated by Al-Itihad Al-Islamiya (AIAI), the Islamic Courts Union and Al-Shabaab between 1992 and 2017 in light of their respective attack, target and weapon type in comparison to Al-Qaeda from data obtained from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) by means of a statistical descriptive analysis. The performance of these terrorist organisations was considered against the absence of key members that constitute the affiliatory network between Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda. Particular attention was paid to the social capital in the form of tactical skills Al-Qaeda imparted to AIAI members who proceeded to be members of ICU and Al-Shabaab, and the impact they had on their organisations. The study finds that members of Al-Shabaab with ties to Al-Qaeda from the early 90s became highly skilled militants who occupied prominent positions as founders and senior leaders of Al-Shabaab, with considerable influence in directing the nature of Al-Shabaab’s attacks to be similar to Al-Qaeda’s attacks. Not only did this provide evidence of the tactical impact of the affiliation between Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda, but in the absence of these key members the former demonstrated increasing capacity to instigate mass casualty attacks. This indicated further distribution of Al-Qaeda inspired social capital from key members of the network to the rest of their affiliates, that continues to exist long after their elimination. The study therefore considered this to be a significant contributing factor to the capacity of Al-Shabaab to instigate mass casualty attacks. ii DECLARTION I hereby declare that the dissertation titled Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda: Exploring the Tactical Utility of Terrorist Affiliations in Africa, has not been submitted by me at this or any other university; that it is my own work in conception and design, and that all material contained herein has been duly acknowledged. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to first and foremost express my deepest gratitude to my Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ for His daily grace and mercy for the duration of this research project. I would also like to thank my supervisor Mr Henwood for persistently providing me with advice, guidance, and clarity throughout this research project. My thanks also goes to my family members: my grandmother and parents as well as my siblings, Paul and Deborah, for their unwavering love and support throughout this research project. I would like to dedicate this research project to the victims of terrorism in East Africa as a result of Al-Qaeda and Al-Shabaab’s operations for almost 30 years, and those who continue to make sacrifices to fight against the threat of terrorism in the region. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................................... ii DECLARTION ..................................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ................................................................................................. viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................... x CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 1. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. RESEARCH PROBLEM ......................................................................................................... 2 1.2. RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES .................................................................................. 3 1.3. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................... 3 1.4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY............................................................................................ 11 1.5. LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH ........................................................................................... 12 1.6. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................................................ 13 1.7. STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH ............................................................................................ 14 CHAPTER TWO: SOCIAL CAPITAL THEORY AND SOCIAL NETWORK METHOD ......... 15 2. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 15 2.1. SOCIAL CAPITAL THEORY................................................................................................ 15 2.2. SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS METHOD ...................................................................... 19 2.2.1. Methodological Foundations ..................................................................................... 19 2.2.2. Social Network Method................................................................................................ 21 2.3. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 24 CHAPTER THREE: DATA COLLECTION AND PRESENTATION .......................................... 26 3. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 26 3.1 NETWORK CONTRUCTION OF AL-SHABAAB AND AL-QAEDA MEMBERS ......... 26 3.1.1 Data Collection ............................................................................................................... 26 3.1.2. Data Verification ............................................................................................................ 27 3.1.3. Data Management ......................................................................................................... 28 3.1.4. Availability of Data Beyond 1997 .............................................................................. 36 3.1.5 Data Collection and Findings: Global Terrorism Database ................................ 40 3.2. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 42 ANNEXURE A: NETWORK CONSTRUCTION RAW DATA ..................................................... 43 v CHAPTER FOUR: ASSESSING THE TACTICAL UTILITY OF THE AL-SHABAAB AND AL-QAEDA AFFILIATION................................................................................................................ 44 4. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 44 4.1. A HISTORY OF THE AL-SHABAAB AND AL-QAEDA AFFILIATION: AL-ITIHAD AL-ISLAMIYA AND THE ISLAMIC COURTS UNION ............................................................. 44 4.1.1. The Ogaden and Afghan-Soviet Wars: 1977-1989 ................................................ 44 4.1.2. The Collapse of the Barre Regime and the Beginning of Al-Qaeda Operations in East Africa: 1991-2002 ................................................................................. 47 4.1.3. Radical Islam in East Africa: 1989-2005 .................................................................. 52 4.1.4. The Rise of the Islamic Courts: 1994-2008 ............................................................. 56 4.2. AL-SHABAAB: 2006-2017 ................................................................................................... 59 4.2.1 Assessing the Tactical Utility of the Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda Affiliation .... 67 4.3. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................ 68 ANNEXURE B: AL-SHABAAB MEMBERS WHO TRAVELED TO AFGHANISTAN FOR TRAINING WITH AL-QAEDA .......................................................................................................... 72 ANNEXURE C: KENYA AND SOMALIA MAP OF TERROR ATTACKS BY AL-SHABAAB AND AL-QAEDA ................................................................................................................................ 73 ANNEXURE D: AL-ITIHAD AL-ISLAMIYA WEAPON TYPES 1992-2005.............................. 74 ANNEXURE D1: AL-ITIHAD AL-ISLAMIYA TARGET TYPES 1992-2005 ............................. 75 ANNEXURE E: ISLAMIC COURTS UNION WEAPON TYPES 2005-2008 ............................ 76 ANNEXURE E1: ISLAMIC COURTS UNION TARGET TYPE 2005-2008 .............................. 77 ANNEXURE F: AL-SHABAAB WEAPON TYPES 2007-2017 .................................................. 78 ANNEXURE F1: AL-SHABAAB TARGET TYPES 2007-2017 ................................................. 79 ANNEXURE G: AL-QAEDA WEAPON TYPES ..........................................................................
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